Philippine Air Force Discussions and Updates

[STURM]

It indeed may achieve nothing in Sabah but it might be politically beneficial in some ways for certain polticians in Mindanao or the Sulu area, who in turn might have the backing of a more powerful polticians up north in Luzon or elsewhere. It will also not make any of the Predidential candidates look good, the Sulu area and Mindanao are supposed to be more stable after the signing of the Bangsamoro agreement.

Or maybe I'm just looking too deep into things. This so called invasion might be intended by certain Tausug figures to bring the Sabah issue in the limelight again, to embarrass both the Malaysian and Philippines government or maybe merely for some measure of revenge for 2013.

 

[STURM]

Back to the PAF; unless there is the political will to raise the procurement budget I fail to see how the PAF can procure and maintain a squadron's worth of F-16s. Given the circumstances faced it's my opinion that Gripen is the ideal choice for the PAF; it offers great capabilities and it's cost effective to run/maintain; vital for a resource limited air arm like the PAF. On the Mil-17s I have no idea if the deal will actually go through but I see it as a means of overcoming financial constraints and being practical about it; by having a high/low end mix of S-70s/Mil-17s. Given the funding available and the need to focus on other areas the PAF can't afford the number of S-70s it actually requires. It's also my opinion that the AFP should ditch plans to get stuff like Scorpenes and Brahmos and instead focus on other types of stuff which have greater utility.

Amidst all the talk about mismanagement, corruption and other flaws the country faces; it's important to not to jump to conclusions about the AFP and note that the state of the AFP is mainly due to decades of government neglect. We must never doubt that despite whatever limitations they work under; there are very motivated and capable men and women in the AFP. If we go back to history the Philippines military did well in WW2 and in Korea. The Filipino unit on the Golan under the UN was attacked by numerically superior forces but acquitted themselves very well. Over the past few decades the AFP has also been involved in campaigns against various groups; starting with the Huks. The Hukbalahap rebellion was successfully put down with a mix of military and economic/political means; just like in Malaya but we tend to hear more about Malaya when counter insurgency is mentioned.

Critics may point to the fact that even after decades the AFP was unable to defeat the NPA, MNLF, MILF, Abu Sayaf and other groups but this was largely due to mismanagement at the very top; at the political level. Apart from the Myanmar army; I can't think of any other army in ASEAN apart from the PA which has been exposed to combat almost continuously for such a prolonged period [about 4 decades now]. in the PA thread I posted a link to a podcast about an army unit which has seen lots of action; worth watching.

 

[Ananda]

From Max Defense, photos Philippines MinDef delegate in Turkey inspecting one of two T129B ATAK helicopter. This Turkish version of Italian Mangusta has been delay due to engine export problem with US.

For me, this recent increase of defense Projects implementation by end of Duterte term really makes me wonder, which ones that going to be actual implementation and which ones going to be Political/Election gimick.

With PAF and overall Philippines defense being neglected, hope for their sake it's late trend implementation. Better late then never.

 

[STURM]

The problem is a long shopping list but limited funds. Add to that poltical issues and the 3 services competing for funding, the situation becomes somewhat harder and complicated.

Given that the main challenges it now faces is in the maritime domain, logic would dictate that priority be placed on the PAF and PN. Problem is there remains a non state threat from the likes of the NPA, BIFF and ASG, thus the army can't be neglected too much. What the government IMO should not be doing is investing in limited numbers of high prestige and sexy stuff like Scorpene and Brahmos when there are various other areas which are in more need of funding like fighters, helicopters, UASs, MPAs, missile armed corvettes and radars. On the PAF what is it's preference if given a choice, to expand on the F-50 fleet or go a MRCA it can afford to buy and maintain? Sure the main role of the AFP is to defend the country against external threats in times of conflict but it also requires the means to adequately meet its peacetime opetational committments.

There must be the poltical will, a certain level of funding that is maintained for a certain period and continuity. Defence is important but the fact remains that the economy has taken a beating from COVID and there are also lots of other - non military areas - which rewuire funding too. It also remains to be seen what direction the next administration intends on taking.

 

[Ananda]

Political will is always the main problem for Philippines defense development. Political will that determine whether they want to Invest in defense or only doing patching up works. That's why it's bit 'suspicious' why Duterte shown much interest on defense at end of his term. If he has the will all along, he can do it before COVID when the actual Pinoy Economy practically growing strong.

Pinoy Economy is only slightly smaller then Thailand and significantly bigger then Vietnam. The neglect on defense due to Economics priority is simply not acceptable. In fact they shown now with more defense program by the time their Economy actually worsen.

All of this shown (as I already put also in Indonesian threads), back to prioritize and commitment. For cynically thinking (that appropriate for much of ASEAN), where the Political interest and business interest coincide. Either way COVID and Economic depression certainly slowing down any development in every sectors. However Investment including (and not only) in defense industry and supporting function, historically shown the best way to get out of depression.

 

[STURM]

Political will is always the main problem for Philippines defense development

It is a major issue for many countries. Deciding what to spend on, when to spend it and how much to spend in relation to other areas which are also in need of funding.

That's why it's bit 'suspicious' why Duterte shown much interest on defense at end of his term.
.

Dueterte's main focus when he came into power was the drug campaign and a whole list of other issues. Defence was something he only started focusing on at a later date, even then a lot of it was towards internal security.

For me the more pertinent and interesting question is the approach the next afministration will take. Will there be a level of continuity with regards to what has already been planned or will policy shift to a new direction?

The neglect on defense due to Economics priority is simply not acceptable.

It may not be "acceptable" but nonetheless it is a hard fact and it is something which has to be factored when looking at how they handle and allocate funding for procurement. With the average voter or taxpayer, it's a bit hard to justify why 'X' million is needed to fund a missile corvette when much of his barangay still has no running water or his kid's school which was damaged in a typhoon years ago is still not fully rebuilt because of funding issues.

 

[Ananda]

Deciding what to spend on, when to spend it and how much to spend in relation to other areas which are also in need of funding.

Not an excuse for Pinoy administration that continue shown neglect to Defense. Something that's still important in this region. Prioritize doesn't mean you have to put unpropertionate fund to Defense. What Pinoy administration like Duterte does is neglecting their defense development, relative to their Economy size and capabilities.

Again that's why the recent uptake on defense programs by Duterte and his Political faction at end of his administration and close to election is suspicious. Is it real will and trend, or just Political gimmick for next election. If the last one is the real reason, then it's still business as usual for Pinoy defense development.

 

[STURM]

Not an excuse for Pinoy administration that continue shown neglect to Defense.

I didn't say it was, merely it is a reality ...

 

[STURM]

Again that's why the recent uptake on defense programs by Duterte and his Political faction at end of his administration and close to election is suspicious. Is it real will and trend, or just Political gimmick for next election.

It's not "suspicious". As I pointed out before his main focus initially was on other areas but if you look at statements made in the early days he did mention the need to modernise the AFP, plus as I've told you a lot of the focus was directed against internal theeats which is still a major problem.

I agree with you that he could have done much more but for an indicator look at how past Presidents juggled the need for defence whilst coping with a host of other isuess. Also with regards to Duterte suddenly focusing more on defence at a later stage of his Presidency, it's related to various factors and it's not as if buying defence gear is going to make him or his party more popular with voters - in what way would it be a poltical gimmick?

The average Filipino understands the importance of defence but is more focused on job security, rising food prices, education for his kids, etc.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I think you guys have both good points, but until recently it was like the government neglected the armed forces of the Philippines to the point of let it bleeding to death. Struggling to keep donated warships running, grounded aircrafts, naval outposts in the West-Philippine Sea which were actually rusting retired LSTs...
Also the Battle of Marawi showed the unpreparedness and lack of good equipment.

So that is i think why Ananda compare the Philippine government with the Indonesian government: for many years from the beginning of the current administration, almost no large acquisitions (with exception of 5 C-130J-30, 2 minehunters and empty NASAMS launchers), just promises and proud announcements of their wishlists. And only this year it looks like that defence is taken more seriously. And maybe that's also because 2024 will be the year of the coming elections.

 

[STURM]

until recently it was like the government neglect the armed forces of the Philippines to the point of let it bleed to death.

I'm not disputing that. At the same time however it's also important to put things in context and look at things in totality.

Also the Battle of Marawi showed the unpreparedness and lack of good equipment

If you're interested I can provide a link to a great podcast on the battle.

Unprepared they were but unsurprising given the minimal urban warfare training units received and the fact that for several decades, with minor exceptions, the fight against the Huks, NPA, MNLF, MILF, BIFF, ASG and others was not in an urban setting. In fact I would argue that even armies with urban warfare training experience would have struggled initially at Marawi.

Ultimately Filipino units at Marawi showed great innovation and adapted in order to suceed despite not having the needed training, doctrine or equipment. Critics point out that it took months and months but it was also due to political reasons [to minimise civillian casualties and minimise the desyruction of buildings]. For comparisons we can look at engagements fought in Mosul, Aleppo, Sadr City, Ramadi, etc. Urban ops as you're aware are very challenging and time and resource intensive, even for armies with the training, doctrine, mindset, experience and equipment.

 

[Ananda]

it's not as if buying defence gear is going to make him or his party more popular with voters - in what way would it be a poltical gimmick?

As non Pinoy, I can only see how their media, online forums and sources reacted on recent defense Project. I can see from some of the comments by those who usually critical to his administration on defense, begin to be more positive.

So yes it definitely can be a Political gimmick. The next election is predicted by Pinoy Political analysts going to be tight. Recent uptick on defense Projects can be seen as part of getting more positive image building to section of public that more critical on defense. They might be not the majority, but with election going to be tight (for Duterte faction), any additional votes matter.

The problem for defense uptake only happen near election, means it will not be sustainable. Duterte opposition already gather many support from those who sees Duterte as CCP lackey. Thus getting program that can sway some votes from that segment is matter.

 

[STURM]

As non Pinoy, I can only see how their media, online forums and sources reacted on recent defense Project

I'm also non Filipino as you're aware. Not that it makes me an expert but I've beena frequent traveller there, I have immediate family there and I've long been a very interested observer.

So yes it definitely can be a Political gimmick.

For what ends? He's on his way out, there is no gurantee his sucessor will be elected next year and it's not as if more votes will be gained from defence spending.

A better way of getting him more popularity would be to maintain the drug war, the fight against corruption and healthcare/education. Those issues have gained him widespread support, not only from die hard suporters but also those not particularly enamoured of him.

Of far more importance is to see the direction the next administration will take towards defence - continuity with what has already been long planned or a diffrent course? How the economy fares in the coming years, how things pan out in the South China Sea and whether the internal security threat worsens will determine things.

 

[Ananda]

He's on his way out, there is no gurantee his sucessor will be elected next year and it's not as if more votes will be gained from

We both are non Pinoy. However I also have business connection in Manila. Like I wrote before base from Pinoy media and online sources, which I also add from some talks with Pinoy business acquittance. This election will be tight.

You seems see no much votes can be gained on defense issue. Well what I got from Pinoy sources is different perception. Defense is gaining momentum Politically for those who see Duterte faction is CCP lackey.

So we can argue on different perspective whether defense matter or not for average Pinoy. However as this election going to be tight, any program uptake including in defense can be seen as potential Political gimmick. Cause again any votes from any issues is matters.

Pinoy politics is depends on Political factions between powerful Political family. Duterte coming from one of them, and he's going to make sure his successor will come from his faction. So off course even he's can not run again, does not mean he's not care to give Political gimmick for next election purpose. That's his ends.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I'm also non Filipino as you're aware. Not that it makes me an expert but I've beena frequent traveller there, I have immediate family there and I've long been a very interested observer.



For what ends? He's on his way out, there is no gurantee his sucessor will be elected next year and it's not as if more votes will be gained from defence spending.

A better way of getting him more popularity would be to maintain the drug war, the fight against corruption and healthcare/education. Those issues have gained him widespread support, not only from die hard suporters but also those not particularly enamoured of him.

Of far more importance is to see the direction the next administration will take towards defence - continuity with what has already been long planned or a diffrent course? How the economy fares in the coming years, how things pan out in the South China Sea and whether the internal security threat worsens will determine things.

So from which i understand, the opposition dislike the fact that Duterte is a puppet of communist china. That means that if the opposition comes into power after the elections, they will have a course more towards the US and other countries. So it is to be expected that the Philippines will stay receive equipment, maintenance support and spareparts from countries like Indonesia, Japan, South-Korea, Turkey and the US.

 

[STURM]

So from which i understand, the opposition dislike the fact that Duterte is a puppet of communist china.

A bit more to it than thst. The notion he's a puppet is one held mainly by outsiders and a small segement of the voter base. The main grevience many have with him is related mainly to domestic issues.

 

[STURM]

You seems see no much votes can be gained on defense issue. Well what I got from Pinoy sources is a different perception

For some in the middle to upper income bracket maybe. For the bulk of the working class voters who are more focused on job security and education/healhcare, no. As I said someone whose brangay still doesn't fully have running water will be indifferent to hearing about cash for a missile armed corvette. Same for someone who can barely make ends meet feeding his family based on his salary. Depends on who you ask, naturally those in certain types and levels of business will say diffrently from those struggling to survive.

So off course even he's can not run again, does not mean he's not care to give Political gimmick for next election purpose.

Right. So suddenly focusing on defence as a "poltical gimnick" is going to achieve the desired results from the average voter in order to ensure his sucessor wins?

There are other issues which reasonate far more with voters which can be more effectively employed as a "gimmick" rather than defence.

Duterte coming from one of them

He comes from a middle class family and despite his and his daughter's long inbolvement in politics is not widely considered to hail from a poltical dynasty per see, the likes of the Aquinos, Marcos and Macapagals. At least not yet.

 

[Ananda]

the opposition dislike the fact that Duterte is a puppet of communist china

Domestic issue is the main factor. The perception on defense can be the swing voters. At least that what I got from Pinoy sources.

suddenly focusing on defence as a "poltical gimnick" is going to achieve the desired results from the average voter in order to ensure his sucessor wins?

Let's agree to disagree. What ever you talk and whatever I said will not matter to both our perception. Because we see on different angles.

I see the election will be tight cause the Pinoy voters already evenly divided between those who supports and oppose Duterte faction, on domestic issue. Thus the small voters that see 'small' matter of defense will be the swing votes. For that, they are matter.

 

[Ananda]

comes from a middle class family and despite his and his daughter's long inbolvement in politics is not widely considered to hail from a poltical dynasty pervsee, the likes of the Aquinos, Marcos and Macapagals. At least not yet.

No he's not. His family maybe not has long history like Marcos and Macapagals. However he's coming from Political family. The image that he's just middle class origin, just his image building to shown the average voters, he's just another average Pinoy background. Which he's not.

 

[STURM]

Domestic issue is the main factor. The perception on defense can be the swing voters.

Domestic issues is indeed the main focus of ordinary voters which is a point I've been trying to make. Issues like job security, the prices of essentials, education, healthcare, etc.

On defence, again, it's widely understood to be vital but as to how vital and in what order of priority, depends on who you ask. Someone from a working class background struggling to make ends meet or someone in the middle class to upper bracket level who views things differently?

Thus the small voters that see 'small' matter of defense will be the swing votes. For that, they are matter.

If that's the case we'll be seeing the various candidates talk about defence spending ... After all as you maintain, "small' matter of defense will be the swing votes".

Which he's not

He comes from a middle class background, unlike Aquino, Macapagal and Marcos, as well as other poltical dynasties whose families have long been entrenched in politics and who've long had wealth. .