Hi everyone. This is my first post on this forum. I am new to this website and the forum, but I must admit that I have come to rely on this website for all my defense subject related news.
Anyways, what I wanted to discuss was the possible force structure of PAF in 2015. Here is my two cents worth. Given the economic and political conditions of Pakistan in the present day and what it is likely to be in the next ten years I believe the following force structure is the most realistic and practical on for PAF.
MEDIUM TECH / INEXPENSIVE FIGHTER= JF-17
Starting in mid 2006 production of the first batch of 16 JF-17 fighters will begin in China. 8 of these are designated for the PAF. I believe Pakistan Aeronautical complex will commence the production of JF-17 beginning in 2007 at a rate of 12-20 aircraft per annum. I am going to be optimistic and assume the production if going to be 20 aircraft per annum. At this rate the first squadron of a standard complement of 24 fighters should be active at the beginning of 2008. By 2014-2015 period PAF will take the delivery of the final batch of JF-17 fighters. Personally I think is great for Pakistan as a whole because it contributes to Pakistan have indigenous Defense industry and towards the industrialization of Pakistan as whole. The problem with JF-17 is its radar; the GRIFO S-7 is just not sufficient. I believe a slightly downgraded version of the TYPE 1473/KLJ3 which is suppose to have a search distance 52~148km and track 8 targets simultaneously would be the more appropriate choice combined with the SD-10 MRAAM. SD-10 is believed to be comparable to AMRAAM-A, which is the earliest version of the American AMRAAM missile. TYPE 1473/KLJ3 is going to be fitted on the more advanced Chinese J-10 fighter. According to certain websites the downgraded version of the 1473/KLJ3 radar may be the option PAF might be going for. JF-17 is intended to replace Pakistan's fleet of J-6 and J-7 fighters.
FINAL STATUS = PAF wants 150 of these.
MORE EXPENSIVE / 4.5 GENERATION FRONTLINE FIGHTER
We all know that America is not a reliable ally. Even though currently the two nations are on good terms and Pakistan has been granted the status of Non-NATO ally. However, we have been here before. U.S.A is going to dump Pakistan again as soon as it's agenda is fulfilled in South Asia. There buying additional F-16, even if they are given for free is not a good idea. These may fix problems in the short run, but will create more problems in the long run. America can pull the plug at any time. Therefore I think it is far-gone conclusion the J-10 is going to be Pakistan's next frontline fighter. This is more than fine. According to Jane's and several leading Western defense websites, certain analysts consider J-10 to be in the 4.5 generation, the same as Rafale and EF-2000 fighter. U.S. Navy analysts believe that J-10 could be a serious challenge to FA-18 E/F fighters in terms of maneuverability. The only area which could be an issue is the avionics; however the Chinese are making the fighter available with a powerful set of avionics and new technologies that seem to approach the capabilities of the RBE-2 radar on the RAFALE. However, I could be entirely wrong. This is not the opinion of the analysts but my own personal opinion. Either way, J-10 is going to be a formidable war machine. The primary air to air weapon for J-10 is going to be the SD-10 MRAAM missile. I believe subsequent generations of SD-10 MRAAM will catch up with the Western and Russian MRAAMs. I believe the Chinese are already contemplating a more advanced version of SD-10 with ramjet power giving a 100 + KM range and more powerful avionics. But this is purely a rumor, however I think it is the only logical evolution of the SD-10. Either way JF-17 is not going to be sufficient to defend PAF airspace against hostile Indian SU-30MKI, LCA, and MCA fighters and attach aircraft. RAFALE and EF-2000 are too expensive both politically and economically. I believe the logical choice is J-10. I think the best thing to do is to order immediately 60 J-10 fighters as they become available to the market in the next 1-2 years and assemble under license another 90 in Pakistan. I believe Pakistan would need 6 squadrons of these fighters to replace it's fleet of Mirage-III/V fighters by the end of this decade. From order to delivery to PAAF and entering squadron service, I think we are looking at around 2009-2010 before the first batch of J-10 fighters are delivered.
FINAL STATUS = I believe PAF will need 150 of these to replace the vintage but upgraded Mirage III/V fighters.
INEXPENSIVE / MEDIUM TECH CLOSE AIR SUPPORT / ATTACK AIRCRAFT
I believe Pakistan also needs to replace its vintage Q-5/A-5 attack aircraft, which are based on the Mig-19 and employed in the close air support role with a brand new aircraft. Bear with me on this one. Using expensive fighters like J-10 or FC-1 in the risky role of attack and close air support does not make much sense. In this role you practically need a flying tank that can fly low and take heavy punishment from small arms fire and ground base FLAK. Something like a A-10 warthog, Su-25/28, or AMX. Pakistan has already taken delivery of 16 K-8 advanced jet trainers from China. These were developed between China and Pakistan in the late 80s and early 90s. Pakistan has a requirement for 100 of these and has either already started building them at PAC or will do so very soon. The best choice for Pakistan I think is to develop locally or with China a version of K-8 dedicated to the attack role. I think a slightly longer version that carriers more fuel with armor protection so it can take punishment from FLACK and still return home. This version could be fitted with simple radar perhaps even the Grif-7 which Pakistan already manufactures under license. The aircraft could be fitted with the Blue Sky laser targeting pod which is comparable to the U.S. LANTIRN navigation and targeting pods for carrying out precision strikes. The aircraft's weapons would include PL-9 for air defense and in the ground attack role would include air launched HJ-9A: Millimeter wave seeker guidance, fire-and-forget anti tank missile, HJ-9B: Semi-active laser beam riding seeker guidance, fire-and-forget anti tank missile, Type 250-3 anti-amour cluster bomb, Type 250-2/500-2/1500-2/3000-2 General Purpose Bomb ( the number in front of each bomb indicates it's weight in KGs), the latest versions of the Chinese LGBs (NORINCO revealed its laser-guided bomb (LGB) in the early 1990s, which is similar to the U.S. GBU-12 Paveway-II LGB), the 57 mm Type 57-1/-2, the 90 mm Type 90-1/-2, and the 130 mm Type 130-1/-2 rockets. The armored attack version of the K-8 Advanced jet trainer could be manufactured developed and manufactured locally with minimal help from China. I believe the best name for it would be A-8 Bahadur. The attack aircraft would probably cost around $10,000,000.
Final Status= I think PAF would need at least a 100 of these to replace the Q-5 attack aircraft.
AWACS ROLE / ANTI SUBMARINE ROLE / LIGHT TRANSPORT
PAF desperately needs AWACS aircraft, it also needs new Anti submarine warfare aircraft, and possibly light transport/ paratroop drop aircraft. It would be best if a single platform could fulfill all these requirements. I believe CN-235 platform manufactured by Indonesia would be the best candidate. It is already a popular aircraft used in the above stated roles the only role it is has not been adapted for is the AWACS role. However a study was carried to see if it could be fitted with the SWEDISH ERIEYE radar and it was deemed possible to do so. I propose that Pakistan acquire at least 12 CN-235 MPA anti submarine warfare/ surface warfare aircraft, 6 AWACS aircraft with ERIEYE radar developed by Ericsson Microwave Systems and is capable of 360° detection and tracking of air and sea targets over the horizon. The instrumented range is 450km and a typical detection range against a fighter aircraft size target is in excess of 350km, and at least 20-25 light transport aircraft for Special Forces and basic transport need. That is a total of 50+ aircraft. Pakistan can manufacture these under license also. Turkey was allowed to do so between 1992 and 1998 for 50 aircraft.
PAF FINAL STATUS
J-10 = 150 (replacing the Mirage III/V fleet)
JF-17 = 150 (replacing the J-6/J-7 fleet)
A-8 = 100 (replacing the A-5 in the attack and close air support role)
TOTAL = 400
K-8 = 100 (Advanced jet trainer in service with PAF and being manufactured at PAC)
CN-235 AWACS = 6 (with ERIEYE RADAR)
CN-235 MPA = 12 (needed to replace the older P3-C ORIONS in the antisubmarine role)
CN-235 light transport = 25 (needed to complement C-130 Hercules aircraft)
I believe these numbers are achievable, perhaps not necessarily by 2015 but I think it can be done by 2015-2020 period. I believe these numbers and types of aircraft are practical give the needs of PAF and the current and future expected economic conditions of Pakistan.