New Coronavirus threat

[ASSAIL]

We can massage the figures and reasons for Aust and NZs success in containment but there are two reasons which explain most of that success;
We are both islands at the bottom of the world and we both banned international travel very early, and,
Apart from a very few cities we both have very low population density.

 

[cdxbow]

We can massage the figures and reasons for Aust and NZs success in containment but there are two reasons which explain most of that success;
We are both islands at the bottom of the world and we both banned international travel very early, and,
Apart from a very few cities we both have very low population density.

True, but the governments of both countries did move quickly and there was wide spread acceptance of social distancing and travel restrictions by citizens. A two week delay would have had much, much worse results. The Australian government could have botched it, at the time I wasn't at all certain that they would do the needful, although it appears Victoria and NSW pretty much made the decision for the feds.

 

[Boagrius]

Yep, POTUS' early rhetoric (downplaying C19 as akin to the flu; severity of disease exaggerated/a democrat hoax; should magically disappear by April etc) was not conducive to early containment and widespread or sustained adherence to social distancing. This simply did not occur in Aus/NZ and I suspect that has helped alongside the early national isolation measures.

 

[Todjaeger]

Yep, POTUS' early rhetoric (downplaying C19 as akin to the flu; severity of disease exaggerated/a democrat hoax; should magically disappear by April etc) was not conducive to early containment and widespread or sustained adherence to social distancing. This simply did not occur in Aus/NZ and I think that has helped alongside the early national isolation measures.

It is not just the early rhetoric, or that of the POTUS either. There are groups which have actively been spreading disinformation as well as organizing protests against both the US shutdown, as well as protective measures individuals and businesses have been advised to talk like wearing maskings when out in public, social distancing, etc. The fact that gov't experts are usually advising one thing, and the policy and decision makers are saying and/or doing another has not helped matters either.

At this point, some in the US have taken to viewing the decision to wear a mask/PPE as a political decision, rather than a health and safety decision.

 

[StobieWan]

Many, many years ago, I spent a day with an American health academic who was responsible (and eventually failed) for Mr Clintons attempts to bring in a some form of universal healthcare in the US. In discussion why it failed, of which there were many, he said there was a fundamental difference between Americans and Australians in that Australians were more likely to try to reach a consensus about an issue and were more conciliatory than Americans. I would presume the same applies to Kiwis. Social consensus and conciliation are helpful for the 'common good' and the response to pandemics in democracies requires a sense of the 'common good'.

The health care argument I think could always have been better underpinned by illustrating how this is a "common good" analogous to public schooling and infrastructure - a healthy work force able to move from one geographical location to another easily is a strong economic argument, whereas the current US system discourages swapping jobs for some of the population if they have pre-existing conditions etc.

 

[Projectman]

Countries where the leaders moved decisively early on and gave clear messages , did much better. Countries like uk ,usa are a clear example of either you need good leadership, which they don't have , or you have a population that takes personal responsibility like the Japanese/Singaporeons without much need of government handholding.
And you have countries like mine , India with 1.3 b people, where the government moved decisively early on to shutdown everything, controlled the often predicted explosion in cases , but is now facing a quandary as the economy has suffered a lot and have little choice but to open up. Here also states which were serious in implementing the lockdown and testing measures , have come out very well , while states like maharashtra (Mumbai) with inexperienced chief ministers, just went through the motions and are reaping thousands of positive cases per day. Also like usa, the federal structure leads to some states with opposition (not from central bjp government) , being defensive in their approach. Looking for reasons to blame the central government rather than accepting that health and law order is a state subject on which central government has very limited control. China's centralized dictatorial model has a lot of advantages in such situations.
India now is testing 100000 persons per day with 7000 coming out positive and 150 to 200 deaths every day. Our death tally has crossed 4000 yesterday. This death rate has never crossed 200 per day for whatever reasons. People are maintaining distance, while markets are open in most of India. A explosion in cases might occur in the next few weeks with the migrant workers trekking home , with work starting slowly.
India has a gross savings rate of 30 % , with people not depending on the government in times of need.

In the meantime Chinese army decides it's a good time to ingress a few km into disputed JK Ladakh area with 500 odd men. The border security men on indo china border dont carry weapons and physical clashes with rods is common.

 

[Todjaeger]

Just read confirmation of something a regional health dept. contact of mine mentioned to me early this morning. There is apparently a specific segment of the population which is now actively avoiding testing, as well as resisting COVID-19 contact tracing, along with the unfortunately to be expected misinformation about what contact tracing is, how it is done, and why it is so important in responding to infectious disease outbreaks.

At this point I am wondering whether certain biologicals should have their human being statuses changed to walking meat sack.

 

[Projectman]

Just read confirmation of something a regional health dept. contact of mine mentioned to me early this morning. There is apparently a specific segment of the population which is now actively avoiding testing, as well as resisting COVID-19 contact tracing, along with the unfortunately to be expected misinformation about what contact tracing is, how it is done, and why it is so important in responding to infectious disease outbreaks.

At this point I am wondering whether certain biologicals should have their human being statuses changed to walking meat sack.

What segment ? Why be so cryptic ?

 

[ngatimozart]

What segment ? Why be so cryptic ?

Because it most likely gets into US politics and politics is a forbidden subject on here. Todjaeger has already had a few run ins with the US Moderators over this.

 

[Todjaeger]

Because it most likely gets into US politics and politics is a forbidden subject on here. Todjaeger has already had a few run ins with the US Moderators over this.

Pretty much. Here in the US, much of the pandemic response has been getting viewed through a political lens. A virus does not care what the religion or politics are of a person it infects, and yet pandemic responses at both individual levels as well as governmental keep getting made based off political ideology and not apolitically based off what is believed to work, or what has historically worked in the past.

There are containment, contact tracing and identification protocols which have been in place for long periods of time and have been successfully used to respond to numerous different and at times emerging infectious disease outbreaks and yet for this pandemic, these protocols and the need for them are labeled a hoax. In some respects it has been rather ironic finding out that there was an Anti-Mask League that protested the mandatory order to wear masks in San Francisco in 1918 during the influenza pandemic.

 

[John Fedup]

I almost get the impression that certain regions have given up on containment and have decided to let the virus run its course. The main reason is the economic damage that is piling up and the prospects of a second wave continuing the process. Most major cities will experience massive gridlock when people start returning to work in their cars instead of mass transit. If no vaccine is forthcoming in the next 6-12 months I think other regions will give up on containment as well despite the almost certain higher death rate due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

 

[StobieWan]

Just read confirmation of something a regional health dept. contact of mine mentioned to me early this morning. There is apparently a specific segment of the population which is now actively avoiding testing, as well as resisting COVID-19 contact tracing, along with the unfortunately to be expected misinformation about what contact tracing is, how it is done, and why it is so important in responding to infectious disease outbreaks.

At this point I am wondering whether certain biologicals should have their human being statuses changed to walking meat sack.

There's a growing conspiracy movement resisting any Covid counter measures - we see it in the UK as well, embarrassingly.

I've seen "consumer complaints" from people refused service because they wouldn't wear a mask or use hand sanitiser - and don't get me wrong, I'm not fond of using any alcohol based sanitiser myself - I had a bout of contact dermatitis several decades ago and anything that dries my hands out makes me very uncomfortable. The gist of most of these "complaints" is, or seems to be, ideologically based however.

 

[Todjaeger]

There's a growing conspiracy movement resisting any Covid counter measures - we see it in the UK as well, embarrassingly.

I've seen "consumer complaints" from people refused service because they wouldn't wear a mask or use hand sanitiser - and don't get me wrong, I'm not fond of using any alcohol based sanitiser myself - I had a bout of contact dermatitis several decades ago and anything that dries my hands out makes me very uncomfortable. The gist of most of these "complaints" is, or seems to be, ideologically based however.

Pretty much. TBH though I am unaware of any 5G towers in the US having been been targeted by arsonists yet. Granted 5G is not universally available in the US, so that is apparently a Euro conspiracy response which has yet to light up in the US. Yet.

This shows that the US does not have a monopoly on stupid.

 

[StobieWan]

I don't think Australia and NZ are more disciplined than others, in fact we're the opposite because we have a reputation for giving the one fingered salute to authority, and we do have a more relaxed easy going nature than the poms, yanks etc. I would suggest that it's more about mateship and doing what's right, more than anything else. You'll notice that everytime there's a disaster etc., both our peoples dig in and help mates out, even mates we didn't know 5 minutes ago. I think it's part of our heritage from 2 centuries ago when all of our peoples had to do that to survive in the bush on both sides of the ditch. It's something that's been passed down from one generation to the next.

Self disciplined perhaps ? Not so much "falling in line with authority" as "understanding and accepting personal responsibility for risk" - it's something a lot of the UK has lost touch with I feel (and I am a UK resident and citizen so am at least qualified to make a personal observation.)

 

[StobieWan]

Pretty much. TBH though I am unaware of any 5G towers in the US having been been targeted by arsonists yet. Granted 5G is not universally available in the US, so that is apparently a Euro conspiracy response which has yet to light up in the US. Yet.

This shows that the US does not have a monopoly on stupid.

There are videos of one enterprising chap demonstrating how to cripple LED *street lights* in the UK.

I can only hope one day he gets it wrong and takes 440V for his troubles.

 

[John Fedup]

There are videos of one enterprising chap demonstrating how to cripple LED *street lights* in the UK.

I can only hope one day he gets it wrong and takes 440V for his troubles.

There is is a huge list of people that need to take 440V IMHO. An electrode where the sun never shines is one connection point I’d suggest.

 

[John Fedup]

Hopefully potential vaccines aren’t rushed to market via political pressure. I can’t think of anything worse than a rushed vaccine that causes harm. The anti-vaxers will work their oracle of disinformation for its worth and the consequences will be ugly.

 

[hauritz]

So much is pinned on a vaccine being quickly developed and distributed.

Then you read something like this.

How Effective is the 2019-20 Flu Shot?

Based on data from 4112 children and adults, vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be 37% against influenza A and 50% against influenza B viruses.

www.contagionlive.com

It appears that the overall effectiveness of a flu vaccine is only about 45% and by all reports, coronaviruses are even more resistant to vaccines. Quite possibly we might see people becoming complacent after a vaccine becomes available pretty much negating its benefits.

 

[Todjaeger]

So much is pinned on a vaccine being quickly developed and distributed.

Then you read something like this.

How Effective is the 2019-20 Flu Shot?

Based on data from 4112 children and adults, vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be 37% against influenza A and 50% against influenza B viruses.

www.contagionlive.com

It appears that the overall effectiveness of a flu vaccine is only about 45% and by all reports, coronaviruses are even more resistant to vaccines. Quite possibly we might see people becoming complacent after a vaccine becomes available pretty much negating its benefits.

The answer is sort of yes, and sort of no. Influenza viruses mutate readily, and there are also different types of influenza virus (A through D) which in turn have different potential strains. This is why there are seasonal flues as the most prevalent form of influenza can be quite different from year to year, to the point that a person might be effectively immune one year but not another.

This ready ability to mutate also makes creating the correct vaccine for a seasonal flu quite difficult, as the vaccine manufacturers have to predict what specific type(s) of influenza are going to be most common for a specific flu season, and then develop a vaccine which is appropriate for that or those influenza viruses. If a pharmaceutical company produces the correct vaccine for a given flu season, and then a person is administered that correct vaccine, it can be quite effective. Given the variables involved though, it can be rather like hitting an evading target though.

Now SARS-CoV-2 is a different type of virus, being a coronavirus instead of an influenzavirus. Depending on a number of factors, a vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be quite successful, if it can actually be developed. I say, "if," because the common cold is also caused by a coronavirus, and vaccine R&D for that coronavirus has been going on for decades without success. If people can build up anti-bodies to provide immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the virus itself does not mutate or otherwise develop strains so far apart that different anti-bodies are required, then an effective vaccine could possibly be developed.

 

[ngatimozart]

There's a growing conspiracy movement resisting any Covid counter measures - we see it in the UK as well, embarrassingly.

I've seen "consumer complaints" from people refused service because they wouldn't wear a mask or use hand sanitiser - and don't get me wrong, I'm not fond of using any alcohol based sanitiser myself - I had a bout of contact dermatitis several decades ago and anything that dries my hands out makes me very uncomfortable. The gist of most of these "complaints" is, or seems to be, ideologically based however.

Observing from the other side of the world, I agree that it is ideologically based, especially in the US. We had a little bit of ideologically based opposition here, but that petered out reasonably quickly due to an overwhelming lack of public interest. Here the ideology was more around right wing business interests than anything else. We do have the odd groups of far right nutters, but they are a real minority and nothing like the militias and christian fundamentalist nutters in the US.