Even if ownership is shared with SOE it would be a great outcome for Indonesia. The capability provided for by the A400 is a boost for TNI AU especially for HADR events in the archipelago.
Indonesian Aero News
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@ASSAIL Just FYI, if the A400 does not go through, don't be surprised. The Indonesian Air Force does not consider it priority. They would not mind getting it, especially if someone else gets it, but their priority is C-130J. I imagine Pertamina is not happy about it, as they have no real need for a big plane but will be forced to pay for it. Since they are also expected to turn a profit, I expect them to tell the politicians that if they are made to pay for it, expect less money coming into the state's coffer. After all, from a macro view, whether it's Pertamina paying for it via a subsidiary using Pertamina's profit or the Defense Ministry using the defense budget, fundamentally it's a foreign loan that will have to be paid sooner or later. Accounting tricks do not change this.
Personally I think it will boil down to what side deals Airbus can offer Indonesia. Marketing rights for C-295 for the AsPac region may do it, but I don't know if Airbus is willing to do so.
The HADR functionality is an excuse. It is nice to have but not critical. The various existing airlifters can handle the job just fine. If the C-130B gets retired without replacement then we'll see an actual reduction in capability, but that's why the priority is C-130J while the A400M is just an extra. Nice if they can get it, no big deal if they can't.
PS: if I seem unenthused about this deal, you're right. The aircraft itself is fine, but if the air force can't justify the purchase by themselves then it proves that the air force merely wants this rather than need this. Defense systems acquisitions must be decided based on needs, not wants.
Personally I think it will boil down to what side deals Airbus can offer Indonesia. Marketing rights for C-295 for the AsPac region may do it, but I don't know if Airbus is willing to do so.
The HADR functionality is an excuse. It is nice to have but not critical. The various existing airlifters can handle the job just fine. If the C-130B gets retired without replacement then we'll see an actual reduction in capability, but that's why the priority is C-130J while the A400M is just an extra. Nice if they can get it, no big deal if they can't.
PS: if I seem unenthused about this deal, you're right. The aircraft itself is fine, but if the air force can't justify the purchase by themselves then it proves that the air force merely wants this rather than need this. Defense systems acquisitions must be decided based on needs, not wants.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Seems what need to decide on this A400 procurement is who has control on that planes later on. From several local media shown strong tendencies this deal "if goes ahead" will used SOE fund and not TNI budget.
If they used similar practice as in the case of C-160 in the 80's-90's, then planes control by Pertamina subsidiary as commercial freighter, but with slot space for TNI use if needed. This means Pelita responsible on maintenance and operational costs.
However if SOE bought them but operate by TNI-AU, then the AF will have more access on using the plane, however potentially TNI-AU has to prepare facilities and budget to maintain them.
So far, TNI-AU possition seems they are glad if SOE procured A400. However they are seems reluctant if they have to maintain them through their Budget or Infrastructure. I sense this since several times in Media, TNI-AU and MinDef put support on C-130J due to maintainable issue toward TNI-AU infrastructure.
Note: I see tonnyc already answered similar thing,
If they used similar practice as in the case of C-160 in the 80's-90's, then planes control by Pertamina subsidiary as commercial freighter, but with slot space for TNI use if needed. This means Pelita responsible on maintenance and operational costs.
However if SOE bought them but operate by TNI-AU, then the AF will have more access on using the plane, however potentially TNI-AU has to prepare facilities and budget to maintain them.
So far, TNI-AU possition seems they are glad if SOE procured A400. However they are seems reluctant if they have to maintain them through their Budget or Infrastructure. I sense this since several times in Media, TNI-AU and MinDef put support on C-130J due to maintainable issue toward TNI-AU infrastructure.
Note: I see tonnyc already answered similar thing,
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
The A400M has superior performance and great capabilities, but indeed it has to fit in the planning and long term strategy of TNI-AU and Pelita.
If TNI-AU is already satisfied with the C-130J, which has only slightly better performance than the C-130H, but with a similar price of the A400M, than its logic that they dont see the A400M as an urgent requirement. After all its a completely new aircraft model and supplier/brand than they are used to.
Also for Pelita, if they dont really need the A400M, but they have to become responsible for the maintenance and all the operational costs, they will also not be too enthousiast.
Hopefully TNI-AU can get some additional second hand C-130Hs (which are in a good condition with enough flight hours left over) from the US. That will be easier and cheaper than brandnew C-130J.
If TNI-AU is already satisfied with the C-130J, which has only slightly better performance than the C-130H, but with a similar price of the A400M, than its logic that they dont see the A400M as an urgent requirement. After all its a completely new aircraft model and supplier/brand than they are used to.
Also for Pelita, if they dont really need the A400M, but they have to become responsible for the maintenance and all the operational costs, they will also not be too enthousiast.
Hopefully TNI-AU can get some additional second hand C-130Hs (which are in a good condition with enough flight hours left over) from the US. That will be easier and cheaper than brandnew C-130J.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Seems from various signal that they give in Media, TNI and Mindef quite serious in C-130J procurement plan. Compared to Su-35 signals that full of Media Drama and Political wishy wishy..The J process moving quite rapidly and without too much noises.
Usually those kind of procurement can move more swiftly compared the ones that catch many headlines, but protracted like Su-35.
Will see by end year or early next year, seems that will be the timing on J's procurement contract (if they are going to be or not).
I have complained much on how the progress Implementations of defence article procurement by MinDef.. however for J, seems the signals bit different. Maybe just my feeling, but there's enough urgency from AF and MinDef to conclude this.
Again, I might be wrong, since I only read what signals that come out in media.
Indonesia Jadi Negara Prioritas Airbus A400M di Asia Pasifik - Kompas.com
This from Kompas, Kompas or Tempo can be considered quite reliable local media. They are just like what I've posted before, also talked about A400 if procured will be operate on Commercial line under Pelita, but with TNI-AU personnels.
If I recalled, Pelita in 80's and 90's also used some TNI-AU crews that being seconded to them operationally. I will try to look if those Pelita's C-160 also being operated by seconded AF personnels.
Despite the talked from SOE ministry on A400 being used as commercial Air Bridge operation especially in Eastern Indonesia, but as tonnyc also put in his comment, I also don't see those Air Bridge operation will be commercial viable. Thus it's more political nature, which I really want to see how Pelita's getting subsidise for operating those A400. This is not Soeharto era anymore, so Government can't ask any SOE to take financial burden as easy as Soeharto can anymore.
Will be interesting to see how this one going to be developed. SOE Ministry better got some deal for DI from Airbus, if not it can developed to Political issue during next election.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
We see her some remarkable points....
- "5 pswt pengganti F-5" : its seems they dont take the acquisition of the Su-35 serious.
- "32 F-16 Viper" : on the other hand they seems to rush/ give an extraordinary priority to the F-16-wish. Why such a rush? Are some America lovers behind this? Get some people some nice bonus from Lockheed-Martin, or is there a possibility that the US is offering a fantastic package (32 F-16V + spareparts + training + armament) with a great price? Or does TNI-AU think that the best way to protect the Natuna Sea with two squadrons (SkU 12 and SkU 1) of F-16Vs?
Hopefully this decision is made with the best intention, to make TNI-AU better and stronger. Because looking to the past, we all know that the TNI-AU became toothless because all of our jetfighters where American (or with major parts from US origin).
- 7 C-130J : as predicted. Unclear is ofcourse if these are the short ones or the longer C-130J-30.
- MRTT/jet tanker: MRTT...thats sounds very A330 MRTT...
- 2 AEW&C : I did not know it was on the priority list of TNI-AU.
- 10 Heli CSAR : i expect these will be EC725s build by IPTN, and hopefully not the EH-101.
- 4 Heli VVIP : do we really need this? Hopefully again IPTN made and not some new expensive model.
- Pswt angkut sedang : CN235/C295?
- 8 Pswt COIN : more EMB-314, is this really that important which such a limited budget?
- 4 Pswt amfibi serbaguna : ? What do they mean with that? 4 x Be-200 or 4 x modified N219s?
- 12 Heli pengganti Bell-47 Soloy : Come on, these old trash are retired 20 years ago.
- 21 pswt LIFT : more T-50s?
- 2 Canister Launcher system NASAMS : ah...they want to continue with the NASAMS. But why just 2 launchers? It will be useless with radars, command post, logistic/support vehicles. Besides that TNI-AU only has 32 AIM-120C7 missiles, thats not even enough for the 23 F-16C/Ds we now have.
- 1 Satbak Rudal PAM ibukota : what does that mean? Satuan Tembak? PAM = Perusahaan Air Minum?
- 3 Satbak rudal jarak sedan and 2 Satbak rudal jarak kau : well...we will see.
- 3 Satbak PSU : ?
- Some radar units : ?
- 8 modernisasi C-130 : good idea.
- 4 Radar cuaca : for the C-130, 737 or other aircrafts?
- 1 paket F-16 600 fuel pylon : i expect a package of external fueltanks for on the pylons/hardpoints.
- 8 Pesawat Cessna 182T : Seems the TNI-AU needs some piston engine trainers besides the turboprop driven Grob G 120TP.
- "5 pswt pengganti F-5" : its seems they dont take the acquisition of the Su-35 serious.
- "32 F-16 Viper" : on the other hand they seems to rush/ give an extraordinary priority to the F-16-wish. Why such a rush? Are some America lovers behind this? Get some people some nice bonus from Lockheed-Martin, or is there a possibility that the US is offering a fantastic package (32 F-16V + spareparts + training + armament) with a great price? Or does TNI-AU think that the best way to protect the Natuna Sea with two squadrons (SkU 12 and SkU 1) of F-16Vs?
Hopefully this decision is made with the best intention, to make TNI-AU better and stronger. Because looking to the past, we all know that the TNI-AU became toothless because all of our jetfighters where American (or with major parts from US origin).
- 7 C-130J : as predicted. Unclear is ofcourse if these are the short ones or the longer C-130J-30.
- MRTT/jet tanker: MRTT...thats sounds very A330 MRTT...
- 2 AEW&C : I did not know it was on the priority list of TNI-AU.
- 10 Heli CSAR : i expect these will be EC725s build by IPTN, and hopefully not the EH-101.
- 4 Heli VVIP : do we really need this? Hopefully again IPTN made and not some new expensive model.
- Pswt angkut sedang : CN235/C295?
- 8 Pswt COIN : more EMB-314, is this really that important which such a limited budget?
- 4 Pswt amfibi serbaguna : ? What do they mean with that? 4 x Be-200 or 4 x modified N219s?
- 12 Heli pengganti Bell-47 Soloy : Come on, these old trash are retired 20 years ago.
- 21 pswt LIFT : more T-50s?
- 2 Canister Launcher system NASAMS : ah...they want to continue with the NASAMS. But why just 2 launchers? It will be useless with radars, command post, logistic/support vehicles. Besides that TNI-AU only has 32 AIM-120C7 missiles, thats not even enough for the 23 F-16C/Ds we now have.
- 1 Satbak Rudal PAM ibukota : what does that mean? Satuan Tembak? PAM = Perusahaan Air Minum?
- 3 Satbak rudal jarak sedan and 2 Satbak rudal jarak kau : well...we will see.
- 3 Satbak PSU : ?
- Some radar units : ?
- 8 modernisasi C-130 : good idea.
- 4 Radar cuaca : for the C-130, 737 or other aircrafts?
- 1 paket F-16 600 fuel pylon : i expect a package of external fueltanks for on the pylons/hardpoints.
- 8 Pesawat Cessna 182T : Seems the TNI-AU needs some piston engine trainers besides the turboprop driven Grob G 120TP.
Attachments
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TNI AU currently has 10 + 24 F-16s, which means it does not have enough fighters or squadrons to conduct naval strike operations. The planned increase from 2 to 4 squadrons (34 existing + 32 new) is essential to increase the trained pilot pipeline to conduct tri-service mission specific tasks.
- This way, 1 of 4 squadrons can specialise in naval strike missions — as a centre of excellence to support the navy. It will take the TNI AU 4 years to develop this capability from arrival of new aircraft and the anti-ship missiles — to develop the instructor pilots and relevant training syllabuses with input from the navy. But I am not sure if TNI AU has any plans in this area.
- Numbers matter. The 2nd squadron can specialise in qualifying new F-16 pilots and instructor pilots (and not be used for large force employment exercises due to its training role).
- The 3rd and 4th F-16 squadrons, can rotate as the operational squadron on alert (for 4 months at per stretch). Rotational alertness enables the other squadrons to deploy for joint force training or for large force employment — increasing the tactical proficiency. These generic F-16s will conduct OCA and DCA protect to the naval strike package or the refuelling tanker.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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@Sandhi Yudha like I put in April, this 2 sq of F-16V is not a new thing.
However, that list already circulated in local forum for sometime...and it's basically still a 'wish list'..
Still a 'wish list' that seems already being circulated in 'pieces' on local media and forum since even last year.
There's something bit new for me.. there's talk on Medium range and long range SAM. Now medium range SAM seems related to NASAM, but that Long Range SAM ones ?
Anyway, Prabowo's already talk in media after meeting with Jokowi, that Jokowi instruct MinDef to review by end of this year all of procurement projects.
All procurement projects must provide latest defence technology and can bring involvement with local industry.
The picture of TNI-AU 'wish list' if not mistaken is taken during Prabowo's session with Parliament
Minister Prabowo upbeat about Indonesia having strong defense industry - ANTARA News
LM already shown willingness to be involved with TNI-AU and DI on F-16 maintenance and system integration. At least the MLU of those 10 F-16 Blk 15+ conducted locally by TNI and DI technicians under LM supervision.
This, off course provide more leverage on LM for future F-16 fighters deal.
So, if this is consistent then any packages on defense procurement must shown more involvement with local industry or at least TNI's maintenance facilities. This in my opinion will benefit more on Western or Korean even Japanese that have more track record with local partners compare to less traditional suppliers like Chinese, Russian or Ukraine..in which their involvement with local partners are less in making.
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ChestnutTree
Active Member
The Air Force finished their feasibility a month or so ago, the KC-46 came out on top.
@ChestnutTree We expect posters, especially new posters, to post more than one line of text, with two lines being the minimum. We also require that sources in the form of http links be provided, or if the source is not available on the internet to be cited: author, when published article title, publisher, and where published.
Ngatimozart
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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@ChesnutTree, we already talk about TNI-AU report on their study on tankers since January (page 52-53 on this thread), including attached the study result. So SandhiYudha seems put another question on MRTT as A330 one based on what being put in the slide, since we know the study shown TNI preferred KC-46.
Or do you have other information that indicates TNI say other wise ?
ChestnutTree
Active Member
Negative, I looked up the feasibility study on the Air Force website and the previously linked study is the same one that I was quoting (KAJIAN PENGGANTI PESAWAT TANKER)
I think the only reason MRTT is up there is just how the Air Force calls the future potential tankers and not indicative of them getting the A330.
I think the only reason MRTT is up there is just how the Air Force calls the future potential tankers and not indicative of them getting the A330.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Well, local forum now talking on MRTT will be A330 due to some tweeter of an ex Jane's local correspondence.
DEFENSE STUDIES: Kemhan Pilih Airbus MRTT Sebagai Pesawat Tanker?
For me it's still a rumours since it's coming from an unconfirmed source. However they are putting two reasons, which for me one of them I already speculate before.
A330 MRTT has an advantage due to it can be converted from ex Airliners (just like RAAF using few of it's MRTT from ex Quantas). Thus with Garuda in the process to replace some of it's 90's originated A330 with A330 Neo, then there's going to be A330 (Garuda owned not leasing ones) that can be used for convertion.
Those Local forum/blog also speculate that TNI budget can not afford MRTT if has to buy new build MRTT. Garuda initial batch A330 (9) if not mistaken around 4 or 5 is Garuda's owned and the rest is leased. If the new Neo's is replacing the initial batch then there are potential at least 2 can be used for convertion.
However I'm still not really buying the arguments that TNI did not have budget for newly build MRTT, since previously they (TNI) told media they have ask budget for 2 'new' MRTT. For me, it's back to how much Airbus package being offer to counter Boeing ones. As I already told before in this thread from time to time, it's very hard to beat Airbus in TNI's procurement due to Airbus long time relationship with DI/IAe.
So, in the end with Jokowi's administration as previous ones done, demanded by law to put as much as possible on local industry involvement, any supplier that can provide than kind of deal can be in advantage.
In other hand Boeing already told media they are preparing to open MRO business in Indonesia, thus it can be also a counter move to Airbus which already choose Malaysia as their MRO based.
For me that kind of 'side' deal that will be more determination factor, rather the talk of budget and time table as those local forumers debating.
ChestnutTree
Active Member
To my understanding if the Army does go ahead with purchasing the Chinooks and second batch of Apaches then I think it would be a no-brainer that the Tanker contract would go to Boeing. Having that much of a bulk buy from Boeing would understandably lower the total cost of the order as a whole. Add the Wedgetail and Poseidon for the AWACS and MPA programs respectively and the TNI would save a lot of money.
Also, there's still the issue of the Airbus only able to operate from 70% of Air Force bases compared to the KC-46's 90%.
Also, there's still the issue of the Airbus only able to operate from 70% of Air Force bases compared to the KC-46's 90%.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Certainly if the planned procurements you mention were to happen then a bulk buy from Boeing makes sense. A one off order for KC-46s, not so much given the problems and delays on the KC-46. Can't see the USAF willing to wait for badly needed tankers in order for Boeing to make some export sales.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Chinook and Apache is the asset that Airbus will have difficulty to match in order to give 'bulk' offering.
However they can offer more economical package in term of C-295 for AEW&C and MPA. Off course it's less capable then Wedgetail and Poisedon, however it's much more economical and can provide much more work to DI/IAe.
In sense the packages I believe will be determined not only in technical capabilities and budget but also how much it can be back to Indonesia in term of local industry work share and involvement.
Also how Boeing and Airbus going to provide some Investment toward domestic aerospace Industry will also make some points to consider.
However they can offer more economical package in term of C-295 for AEW&C and MPA. Off course it's less capable then Wedgetail and Poisedon, however it's much more economical and can provide much more work to DI/IAe.
In sense the packages I believe will be determined not only in technical capabilities and budget but also how much it can be back to Indonesia in term of local industry work share and involvement.
Also how Boeing and Airbus going to provide some Investment toward domestic aerospace Industry will also make some points to consider.
Potential Indonesian order likely through FMS in 2020/2021 for:
- a KC-46 order of 2 aircraft (vs 179 for the USAF); and
- a Apache order of up to 8 helicopters (vs 117 remanufactured Apaches for the US Army),
IMO, there is some potential for a P-8A sale to Indonesia in Jokowi’s 2nd term, especially since Norway (5), New Zealand (4) and South Korea (6) are in the process of placing orders on a hot production line that is supported by the Australians (8), the US Navy (122), the Brits (9) and the Indians (12+6) But I don’t see MPAs listed as a priority in the list shared by Sandhi Yudha above. Honestly, I am much less optimistic of any AWAC sale to Indonesia before 2026 — in the AWAC and MPA dual role space is Saab’s GlobalEye developed for the UAE (and suits Indonesia’s needs better). I like Saab’s integration of the Erieye ER airborne early warning radar and the Seaspray 7500E on the Bombardier platform, but not everyone would agree.
The TNI AU as a lot of big ticket items to pay for in its new aircraft order pipeline, which includes F-16Vs and C-130Js. So I am not optimistic of a high end manpower heavy AWAC purchase, like the Wedgetail (with up to 10 mission crew) in the early 2020s.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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That's why I see Airbus Offer on C295 based AEW&C, MPA or other specialise ISR packages can be more attractive, as TNI-AU seems need to get as much as it can do within the budget. Unless there's significant increase on the allocated budget.
Ahmad
Active Member
PT Dirgantara Indonesia MALE UAV prototype is seen in recent PT DI Instagram post. It look like government is quite serious in building our engineer capability to develop drone technology. Turkish has poured about 200 million USD to develop similar drone so I wonder whether we can build drone more efficiently than Turkish one with much less development cost.
According to the plan the drone will be developed in 4 stages (block) in which starting in its second stages/block it will have indigenous mission system developed by PT LEN Industry. The fourth block (the final one) UAV will be completed, according to the plan, in 2022 and starting from that year the drone is ready to serve in the military.
This drone is also designed to operate for 24 hours. I think military strategist think that we must master this technology instead of just buying it from foreign developer. The program is started in 2015 so that it is initiated under Jokowi administration period. I hope first flight can be done at least in Middle of next year.InshaAllah.
Taken from this instagram post of PT DI. According to the Instagram post, Research and Technology minister come to PT DI to look development of both N 219 and UAV program.
PT Dirgantara Indonesia on Instagram: “Bandung (12/12), Menteri Riset & Teknologi RI, Bapak Bambang Brodjonegoro melakukan kunjungan ke PTDI, diterima oleh seluruh Direksi PTDI.…”
According to the plan the drone will be developed in 4 stages (block) in which starting in its second stages/block it will have indigenous mission system developed by PT LEN Industry. The fourth block (the final one) UAV will be completed, according to the plan, in 2022 and starting from that year the drone is ready to serve in the military.
This drone is also designed to operate for 24 hours. I think military strategist think that we must master this technology instead of just buying it from foreign developer. The program is started in 2015 so that it is initiated under Jokowi administration period. I hope first flight can be done at least in Middle of next year.InshaAllah.
Taken from this instagram post of PT DI. According to the Instagram post, Research and Technology minister come to PT DI to look development of both N 219 and UAV program.
PT Dirgantara Indonesia on Instagram: “Bandung (12/12), Menteri Riset & Teknologi RI, Bapak Bambang Brodjonegoro melakukan kunjungan ke PTDI, diterima oleh seluruh Direksi PTDI.…”
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Ahmad
Active Member
Based on very recent interview from an online publication with PT DI engineer who is involved on the program, this MALE UAV is expected to have maiden flight in late 2020 or early 2021. The engineer has confirmed the picture posted on PT DI instagram as MALE UAV that has been developed by PT DI since 2015. So PT DI is currently having at least 4 program simultaneously which is KFX/IFX, N 219, MALE UAV, and N 245.
From those 4 programs, only N 245 that hanst yet entered prototyping phase and still waiting for financing. IMO it is better for PT DI to focus on those three project first and wait for the completion of KFX/IFX program which absorb many PT DI designers (in the assumption that government still continue the program). Any financing program should be rather used on building new production facility for N 219 program if PT DI really see huge demand for N 219 plane. And for MALE UAV I think it is financed directly from government through either research and technology ministry or defense ministry or Bappenas.
From those 4 programs, only N 245 that hanst yet entered prototyping phase and still waiting for financing. IMO it is better for PT DI to focus on those three project first and wait for the completion of KFX/IFX program which absorb many PT DI designers (in the assumption that government still continue the program). Any financing program should be rather used on building new production facility for N 219 program if PT DI really see huge demand for N 219 plane. And for MALE UAV I think it is financed directly from government through either research and technology ministry or defense ministry or Bappenas.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
From which i understand IPTN want to focus on the N245 after the N219 project is finished. Thats why there is almost no progress in the N245 project, and i think its the best decision.
Im quite surprised that the indigenous UAV project is in such a advanced state. I saw the UAV pictures on facebook, and i thought it was a fanboy statement that this is an IPTN made design, and actually the chinese CH-4B.
Normally prestigious Indonesian defence programs are much more exposed (to a ridiculous high level) to give fanboys a lot of time to let their fantasies going out of control.