The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
"We have developed an estimate based on excess male mortality". It sounds perfectly reasonable. Just how biased is that estimate?
Come out and tell us what part of the mediazona methodology you object to. If anything, the MZ estimates are biased low.

All right, Russia has suffered more than 1m casualties (4 WIA for each KIA) or around that number and Ukraine has suffered more than 1m casualties.
Who says UKR has lost 1M+. Where do you get the UKR estimates from ? I found this website:


However, I dont see thier stated methodologies.

Russia can take more casualties than Ukraine, the prognosis for Ukraine is still bleaker than that for Russia and that is what we don't want to report.
Maybe Deyhere got a bit carried away.
Who is "we"? Any reader here is likely fully informed about both RU and UKR losses.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Come out and tell us what part of the mediazona methodology you object to. If anything, the MZ estimates are biased low.



Who says UKR has lost 1M+. Where do you get the UKR estimates from ? I found this website:


However, I dont see thier stated methodologies.



Who is "we"? Any reader here is likely fully informed about both RU and UKR losses.
"We" as western media, unless you think that Deyhere means this thread with his "western media".

I don't object to anything. An algorithm is biased by the data used, did you read the joke about RAND and Vietnam: "-When will we win the war? ... -You won three years ago." This is an estimate by humans: it is biased.

It is not an "estimate", those are figures provided by Ukraine. In summer 22 the Ukrainian Armed Forces had 1m men, today (I think I was reading all this last year) the UAF has 1m men; Ukraine has been providing monthly recruitment figures by year, not "estimates".
Obviously, there are going to be certain variations with those figures, that's why I used a general "more than 1m".
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I don't object to anything. An algorithm is biased by the data used, did you read the joke about RAND and Vietnam: "-When will we win the war? ... -You won three years ago." This is an estimate by humans: it is biased.
You claimed the estimates are biased. Please tell us why you think mediazona estimates are biased low. Did you read their explanations of the methodology ?

It is not an "estimate", those are figures provided by Ukraine. In summer 22 the Ukrainian Armed Forces had 1m men, today (I think I was reading all this last year) the UAF has 1m men; Ukraine has been providing monthly recruitment figures by year, not "estimates".
Obviously, there are going to be certain variations with those figures, that's why I used a general "more than 1m".
Your methodology is weaker than Mediazona's methodologies.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
Readers of Ukraine’s leading English news site “really want Russia to suffer” but that should not lead the title to downplay the military and political problems facing Kyiv.
You can say something negative about Russia without saying something negative about Ukraine in the same post. Both can be true, and nobody here needs the information carefully balanced to avoid drawing the "wrong" conclusion. Give the rest of us some credit. We can form our own opinions, even after seeing a Mediazona link.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
You can say something negative about Russia without saying something negative about Ukraine in the same post. Both can be true, and nobody here needs the information carefully balanced to avoid drawing the "wrong" conclusion. Give the rest of us some credit. We can form our own opinions, even after seeing a Mediazona link.
Deyhere was talking about western media, that is Ukrainian media saying that they are not in the business of publishing what readers want to read. Reality is neither positive nor negative, wishful thinking is not exactly reality. Have you seen any of that around here or in western media?
 

personaldesas

Active Member
Deyhere was talking about western media, that is Ukrainian media saying that they are not in the business of publishing what readers want to read. Reality is neither positive nor negative, wishful thinking is not exactly reality. Have you seen any of that around here or in western media?
Yes, I've seen it. On every side. And I agree: wishful thinking is not reality.

It is interesting though that Feanor cited Mediazona: Russian casualty rates are down, Russia is in better shape on attrition than last year. Great post. We all took it as given. No context needed. vikingatespam cited Mediazona for Russian dead. Then it was "an estimate by humans: it is biased", and it needed Ukraine's losses next to it.

An uncharitable reading would be that what counts as "wishful thinking" depends not only on the quality of the source, but also on what it concludes.
 
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rsemmes

Active Member
Yes, I've seen it. On every side. And I agree: wishful thinking is not reality.

It is interesting though that Feanor cited Mediazona: Russian casualty rates are down, Russia is in better shape on attrition than last year. Great post. We all took it as given. No context needed. vikingatespam cited Mediazona for Russian dead. Then it was "an estimate by humans: it is biased", and it needed Ukraine's losses next to it.

An uncharitable reading would be that what counts as "wishful thinking" depends not only on the quality of the source, but on what it shows.
Feanor cited, there was no link to read. Deyhere was talking about western media, vikingatespam added a link about an estimate of casualties; estimates are "tricky" and the link mentions BBC so, UK so, western bias, not only human bias.
We keep selling that Russia is running out of tanks, Russia is running out of men, Russian economy is about to crash. Meanwhile, we sell that Ukraine is doing just great.
I think that I would strongly argue any "Russia is doing great", but no one is making that point. I am not skeptical of the quality of CSIS, RAND and RUSI, but their bias is, sometimes, far too evident.

The headline of a Spanish newspaper this morning:
"Rusia redobla sus ataques indiscriminados en Ucrania en respuesta a la escalada armamentística europea"
Russia intensifies its indiscriminate attacks as a response to Europe's arms race. Is Russia area bombing Ukraine? I tend to disagree with every "no context needed" and "we can form our own opinions", I posted "there is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see"; I strongly agree with your "uncharitable reading".
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well case in point, we have two Russian successes developing. For Ukraine the situation west of Druzhkovka and around Dobropol'ye seems to be deteriorating. There are now multiple Russian areas of advance on the Dobropol'ye-Kramatorsk road with Russia essentially retaking all the area they previously lost in the "Dobropol'ye" salient. Obviously cutting the road is not that significant when Dobropol'ye itself is being fought over. But continuing rapid advances here could threaten the road west out of Kramatorsk. Russia is still a ways away from doing that. Meanwhile Russian forces are also on the outskirts of Belozerskoe. It's ironic that Russia's retreat north of Krasniy Liman re-opens the Izyum route fully just as the threat appears for the previously safe route out of Kramatorsk.

Meanwhile in the northeastern corner of Kharkov region it appears Ukraine is withdrawing from the semi-encircled area, with Russia taking more and more villages inside of it. Russia hasn't managed to close the encirclement so far. From a territorial math standpoint this will certainly offset losses in the Krasniy Liman area, and overall geographically we're talking about a total area large than the Russian retreat there. Of course this area is far less significant to the war but it will boost Russian net km square gains for the year. So far this is in line with stated Russian objectives to set up a buffer zone in the Ukrainian border area. We will see if this leads to a bigger push southward in the area between the Oskol and Severskiy Donets.
 

deyhere

Member
Feanor cited, there was no link to read. Deyhere was talking about western media, vikingatespam added a link about an estimate of casualties; estimates are "tricky" and the link mentions BBC so, UK so, western bias, not only human bias.
We keep selling that Russia is running out of tanks, Russia is running out of men, Russian economy is about to crash. Meanwhile, we sell that Ukraine is doing just great.
I think that I would strongly argue any "Russia is doing great", but no one is making that point. I am not skeptical of the quality of CSIS, RAND and RUSI, but their bias is, sometimes, far too evident.

The headline of a Spanish newspaper this morning:
"Rusia redobla sus ataques indiscriminados en Ucrania en respuesta a la escalada armamentística europea"
Russia intensifies its indiscriminate attacks as a response to Europe's arms race. Is Russia area bombing Ukraine? I tend to disagree with every "no context needed" and "we can form our own opinions", I posted "there is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see"; I strongly agree with your "uncharitable reading".
I don't have issues with Mediazona estimates, in reality, it might be higher or it might be lower. what i totally disagree with, is when media and some in the west put Russian casualties higher than that of Ukraine. i think Ukrainian casualties are 3 times higher than that of Russia, just look at the body bag exchanges, one time Russia retuned 1000 bodies, Ukraine returned 35. all exchanges put together, Russia returned thousands, Ukraine return a few hundred.

Recently Donald Tusk, polish prime minister said Ukraine is losing 27 thousand men a month, killed and wounded. i think this has been Ukraines real casualty numbers all along or it might be worst.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't have issues with Mediazona estimates, in reality, it might be higher or it might be lower. what i totally disagree with, is when media and some in the west put Russian casualties higher than that of Ukraine. i think Ukrainian casualties are 3 times higher than that of Russia, just look at the body bag exchanges, one time Russia retuned 1000 bodies, Ukraine returned 35. all exchanges put together, Russia returned thousands, Ukraine return a few hundred.
I don't think this is correct. Ukraine has a massive MIA count which many casualty estimate counters place in the same bucket as KIAs because they mostly are. Ukraine has lost a lot of territory where heavy fighting took place. As a result Russia hasn't even recovered all Ukrainian dead inside their lines. We will see many more lopsided body exchanges over the coming months/years. I think 1:1 is the best estimate at this time, with the reality that it's obviously not exactly 1:1 but likely well below 2:1 in some direction.

Recently Donald Tusk, polish prime minister said Ukraine is losing 27 thousand men a month, killed and wounded. i think this has been Ukraines real casualty numbers all along or it might be worst.
This is probably a real number. It matches well with recruiting needs, and you'll note when Russia was recruiting closer to ~40k a month, Russia has able to expand the size of their forces. I suspect both sides are losing somewhere around 25-35k in KIA and WIA per month.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
i think Ukrainian casualties are 3 times higher than that of Russia
What is your methodology based on ? P : P estimates/rates of advance ? QJM ? RAND ? TNDM ?

UKR casualties are in the same area as RU, likely lower due to being on the defensive almost all the time (QJM). I seriously doubt UKR could sustain 3 times the casualties that RU has shown to have taken (with a high degree of confidence).
 

rsemmes

Active Member
What is your methodology based on ? P : P estimates/rates of advance ? QJM ? RAND ? TNDM ?

UKR casualties are in the same area as RU, likely lower due to being on the defensive almost all the time (QJM). I seriously doubt UKR could sustain 3 times the casualties that RU has shown to have taken (with a high degree of confidence).
I have to say that I am a bit surprised, it has been already mentioned that "bodies returned" is not a valid parameter for casualties. Anyway, how does Deyhere goes from 1000:35 to 3:1? Maybe he simply likes the number "3"?

If you are defending and getting hit by more shells and glide bombs, the "less casualties" point is not that clear.
 

Redshift

Active Member

Redshift

Active Member
British intel opining:

I asked an AI to analyse your posts, and mine as it happens. Definitely interesting reading it found your use of Potapych in your nick to be quite telling.

Definitely put a perspective on both of us, I did a few others at the same time , it's very very good at spotting things
 
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