The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Nobody in Ukraine will hold a referendum on the end of the war, much less allow for such a referendum to have any organized pro-Russian sympathizers campaigning to end the war on or close to Russia's terms.

An afterthought on this one. Actually I think I'm wrong here. Such a referendum is entirely possible but unlikely to be the deciding factor. In my opinion such a referendum, if it occurs, will be done to justify a pre-decided course of action. There's no scenario where Ukraine's government wants to keep fighting but holds the referendum and chooses to take a Russian peace deal because of popular opinion. I also think the opposite is likely true. If the government decides continued hostilities are not an option, they won't let popular opinion prevent them for signing the peace treaty they think they need to sign.

 

[personaldesas]

An afterthought on this one. Actually I think I'm wrong here. Such a referendum is entirely possible but unlikely to be the deciding factor. In my opinion such a referendum, if it occurs, will be done to justify a pre-decided course of action. There's no scenario where Ukraine's government wants to keep fighting but holds the referendum and chooses to take a Russian peace deal because of popular opinion. I also think the opposite is likely true. If the government decides continued hostilities are not an option, they won't let popular opinion prevent them for signing the peace treaty they think they need to sign.

This seems plausible to me, but I find it curious that a referendum like this would be decided by everyone except the people actually in the region in question.

 

[Feanor]

This seems plausible to me, but I find it curious that a referendum like this would be decided by everyone except the people actually in the region in question.

A very good point, there's a real practical problem in place. I actually would argue that the fate of an area should largely be decided by the people who live there. But like I said, I don't believe Ukraine's governing elites have any interest in letting the public decide this. So back to the question of the choice and agency Ukrainian have, they have some but their options are limited. There will be a point in time, likely in the next 12 months, when public opinion will swing across the 50% mark for people who are willing to end the war at the cost of some territorial concessions. This is assuming current trends hold. I don't think that will trigger a change of heart in the leadership.

 

[personaldesas]

A very good point, there's a real practical problem in place. I actually would argue that the fate of an area should largely be decided by the people who live there. But like I said, I don't believe Ukraine's governing elites have any interest in letting the public decide this.

I'd wager that's true of most referendums, on all sides. Everyone's only for a referendum when they expect to win it.

So back to the question of the choice and agency Ukrainian have, they have some but their options are limited. There will be a point in time, likely in the next 12 months, when public opinion will swing across the 50% mark for people who are willing to end the war at the cost of some territorial concessions. This is assuming current trends hold. I don't think that will trigger a change of heart in the leadership.

Normally I'd say that's what you elect a government for, to make these calls. But thats hard to argue for when there currently is not mechanism to vote for one.

 

[personaldesas]

A very good point, there's a real practical problem in place. I actually would argue that the fate of an area should largely be decided by the people who live there. But like I said, I don't believe Ukraine's governing elites have any interest in letting the public decide this.

A hypothetical, just to probe Russia's position on this:

Russia is offered this deal. The war ends. The occupied territories are handed to a neutral international administration, Saarland-style. After some time, the people there vote fairly on whether to join Russia or Ukraine, and the territory goes to whichever side wins.

Do you think they would accept?

(I realize a lot might depends on the details: one vote for the whole area or separate votes per oblast or raion, and whether pre-war residents get a vote or only those living there now. But I'm deliberately leaving that open)