If Russia is truly interested in an end to the war, I'm not sure how it would be acceptable to leave Slavyansk/Kramatorsk in Ukrainian hands. Even if the war is not primarily about territory, territorial claims have become a central part of popular Russian motivation and I do think Putin is somewhat beholden to that. And it seems extremely unlikely that Ukraine would give up further territory as part of negotiations down the line. I would guess that full control of the Donbas is the minimum Putin would accept, territorially. Otherwise a ceasefire gives massive advantage to Ukraine to reorganize and rebuild in the case that hostilities restart.
Yes, I agree, and talked about it previously as well. However, it would greatly depend on what concessions they would be able to get in return. For example, if the conditions are such that Ukraine simply cannot reconstitute its force, and this is the likely outcome, in my opinion, I don’t see a reason for them not to agree to leave the rest of Donbas. If significant concessions are not made, on the other hand, Russia doesn’t have enough reasons to stop. Here is the thing: there will be no actual peace agreement for many years/decades to come, but a (hopefully) permanent ceasefire that will be agreed and Russia will not stop until the terms are acceptable because they fully understand this reality (first ceasefire and then talks is an idiotic take/ask and every rational person realizes it, likely including those asking). They can also resume the hostilities at any time, though, possibly, from a worse position than they are in now if the agreement is not holding. The position, however, could also be stronger, which is everyone’s bet. As of right now, Ukraine has already lost the war and their current desire to continue the fighting is pretty ludicrous from my perspective because they will only lose more and the end result will be worse, possibly eventual full capitulation. But that is their prerogative. Here is an interview with Konrad Muzyka (translated from Polish) which outlines why the war is lost and why there is no reversal (I would say this is a must read, personally):
@Archer83Able: Translated this interview by prominent Polish defence analyst @konrad_muzyka for RP, which focuses on the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war. It's long, but very insightful. Many numbers, detai...…
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Russia here gets to pick and choose, regardless of what many think. Ukraine is ruined. Far from the case for Russia. If what is offered now is worthy of consideration and provides sufficient benefits (including sanctions relief), I think they will take the deal I outlined. Aside from what I said just above, another reason is uncertainty vs certainty. Certain outcome with known benefits. If they continue fighting, they will eventually crush Ukraine (and it could happen sooner than we think?), but there will be new sanctions, more death, more confrontation, expiration of the START treaty early next year with unlikely new talks, and so on. While the effectiveness of new potential sanctions is questionable at best, the existing sanctions will undoubtedly, or very likely, remain long after Ukraine falls and Russia experiencing growing economic (and internal) problems. It is also worth mentioning that Russians know full well that China is their competitor, in spite of the eternal partnership, or whatever the way they put it. Weighing everything out, it just seems to me that there is quite a bit of sense in ending it with the right offer on the table at this point.
This is somewhat true. But I view this war primarily as an utter repudiation of the Minsk process. Meaning Putin will not engage in diplomacy until he is sure he will get what he wants. He will not risk this becoming Minsk 3. The only way to guarantee that is to a) continue the fighting while negotiating or b) get such concessions in exchange for a ceasefire that he can be certain Ukraine will not be in a position to stonewall his negotiations and return to fighting. To freeze the contact line in exchange for a ceasefire and negotiations to solve the "real" issues is basically just a return to Minsk. And even though the war has not gone as he would have liked, Russia is still in a very advantageous position compared to Ukraine. Not sure why he would give that up unless he gets big concessions like the Donbas.
Again, I think you are right. I just don’t think there will be much further immediate negotiating in regard to Ukraine per se, but general security architecture in Europe and arms control. So, I guess what I am saying is more or less the same thing you are because I believe we are at the point, or close to it, where Putin will be getting most of what he wants, so he doesn’t need the rest of Donbas. And this is a great negotiating position to be where everyone should theoretically agree, an equilibrium of the game, because no one will be better off if this continues much longer. No doubt the war will continue if that point is not yet here. I guess we will have more clarity tomorrow. What House press secretary said there will be a joint press conference after the meeting. That should be interesting.
Like I said in my previous post, all we do is speculate and I could be completely off here. Given what we know or think we know, I believe this is the most reasonable approach to take by all parties. The problem is, however, Zelensky is delusional and Euros don’t want to accept a defeat, are paranoid, and seem to be OK with more Ukrainians dying and the country getting more wrecked. I am not sure what their calculus is here if they actually care about Ukraine.
A few more interesting reads:
A very good thread by Clement Molin examining Russian airstrikes and advances:
@clement_molin: Between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, I mapped 3 200 russian airstrikes in 3 months, including 1 400 new ones from july 11th to august 11th. Russian airforce is launching massive strikes at ukraini...…
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A good short article by Brady Africk showing the drone launch sites Russia built to specifically attack Ukraine:
A Russian air base has new infrastructure for storing and launching one-way attack drones at Ukraine, satellite imagery shows
viewsfromabove.bradyafrick.com
A thread by Rob Lee in regards to the recent Russian breakthrough:
@RALee85: Thread on the situation east of Dobropillia. It is important to start by acknowledging there is much we don't know, so it is difficult whether to call this a breach, breakthrough, or infiltration past Ukrai...…
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Mike Kofman on the same subject:
@KofmanMichael: Russia’s advance near Dobropillia reflects the broader problematic dynamic, characterized by a lack of cohesive defensive lines, and undermanned units holding terrain, which can result in gradual the...…
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Pasi Paroinen on the same subject:
@Inkvisiit: Situation north of Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad salient is deteriorating rapidly with Russian forces rapidly infiltrating past Ukrainian lines at a depth of roughly 17km during the past three days. Forwardmost R...…
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Playfra from X on the same subject:
@Playfra0: The Zolotyi Kolodyaz catastrophe. For whoever is asking "what the hell", "why" and "how". Thread 1/⬇️ 2/ This thread will be more raw than the others. No sugarcoating, 101% objectivity. As discussed in...…
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www.thetimes.com
t.me
