The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

I posted here a while ago (end of 2022 early 2023 maybe?) that there were actually preparations by the Russians for a bloody battle. There were field hospitals set up, blood drives, etc (which probably worked its way into the intel suggesting Russian invasion being imminent). I am guessing they just didn’t expect it to be that bloody. I have seen more evidence of it since, but not sure if posted here. If I recall correctly, the article that talked about that I cited here was from The Economist.

Surely there were contingencies that were thought of. Long war it became was certainly not of them though. I personally believe that the three-day Ukraine capture is complete and unsubstantiated nonsense. If I recall correctly, it began by the statements made by the interrogated captured Russian soldier in the first days who claimed that his unit was allegedly sent to Ukraine with enough food supplies for three days. Then there were “discovered” parade uniforms and medals and SBU suggested that the Russians planned a parade in Kyiv within days after deployment. Stuff like that. All propaganda, regardless of who made the claim.

I believe there is plenty of evidence that suggests there was no actual “3-day Special Military Operation” plan and that Putin refused to believe otherwise. Again, that’s nonsense. Surely, there was a (probably low likelihood) contingency where Ukraine would just fold and capitulate or be simply overwhelmed as Georgia was 14 years prior (time flies!). Note that the latter didn’t happen in 3 days either. Ukraine is a much bigger country with significantly more resources and it had been actively at war for nearly 8 years before the invasion. Common sense suggests that the probability of UA troops fighting “Russian proxies” (as well Russians to a much lesser degree) switching sides or deserting en masse was virtually zero. But overwhelming these very forces quickly was probably one of the most likely contingencies considered. And it wouldn’t be unreasonable had Russia chose to scale down its plans and overwhelmed the Donbas, south as they did, and then move further if necessary. Invasion of Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv, along with the aforementioned areas was kind of nuts, which we and they now know. But we are here, not there.

All this “analysis” and conclusions suggesting Russians/Putin thought they would take Ukraine in 3 days or a week or whatever suggests that Russians/Putin are simply too stupid to realize simple realities that a child could see if explained the circumstances. They/he aren’t as stupid, clearly. Like Biden said, quoted here previously, a rational actor who miscalculated. The greatest miscalculation was probably in the capabilities of the Russian Forces; Ukrainian will to fight was probably second, but it is heavily affected by the former (for instance, the number of volunteers in the first weeks/months of invasion vs today).


Edit: drawing early 2022 parallels here, with the exception, perhaps, of “having a low opinion to begin with”:



Obviously not the same thing, but a common theme clearly.

 

[KipPotapych]

Germany is considering possibly buying Typhon for itself, not for Ukraine. Typhon is considered one of multiple possible solutions for satisfying a long-range strike requirement for future corps artillery in the Bundeswehr. To that end, Germany is currently (planning to) initiate a FMS quote request with the US government, in order to have some idea about possible cost. If they are going to be ordered it wouldn't be short-term. Also it would of course not be Pistorius who decides that.

Basically, Pistories let slip about this possible Bundeswehr order during a talk with Hegseth about aid for Ukraine. This was probably intended by Pistorius to "publicize" the possible order in order to gauge public response in Germany - since it's after all not exactly a topic on which parties here agree.

Thanks for the insight, kato.

Related to my post on the subject:

 

[KipPotapych]

Not exactly related to this war directly, but after yesterday’s post I reread Kofman’s article from a few years ago assessing Russian performance in the war with Georgia. Pretty much every issue Mike talked about has been exposed in this war with Ukraine at grotesque scale. Thought someone else might be interested.

Russian Performance in the Russo-Georgian War Revisited - War on the Rocks

In August 2008, the Russian military fought Georgian troops in a brief five-day war. Russia defeated the Georgian forces, but the war revealed profound

warontherocks.com

On this note, what was Saakashvilli aiming to achieve when he initiated the war in 2008? I never saw him as rational, but he surely miscalculated on top of it.


Zaluzhny wrote another article for Ukrainska Pravda. Cliffs can be found in English here:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/18/how-can-ukraine-win-in-a-war-of-attrition-outsmart-russia-by-2027-or-else-says-ex-commander-in-chief/

Those are rather boring (and mostly wrongly interpreted, in my opinion, with bonkers commentary from the authors) though and I would suggest reading the actual article using translate of some kind:

Технологічна війна на виснаження та як у ній перемогти

“Українська правда” пропонує читачам уривок із передмови, яку Залужний написав восени 2024 року до книги журналіста УП Романа Романюка “Чим воюватимуть у Третій світовій”.

www.pravda.com.ua

A couple of thoughts. First of all, he is, of course, talking about the technological advances and breakthroughs that may never materialize as per his vision. He talked about it at the end of 2023 as well, when he declared that the war is at stalemate, which offended Zelensky.

Second, he is talking about restoring Ukrainian offensive potential basically by doing what Russia is doing today (from the UP article):

And most importantly, scaling, further cheapening, increasing the range of action and autonomy of high-precision means of destruction (primarily attack drones of all types), which will allow the remote destruction of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment at strongholds along the line of combat, torn off logistics chains and ensure an effective logistical blockade in order to first "squeze" the enemy from the defense areas, and then occupy virtually empty positions.

This is exactly what Russia is doing today (and has been for months) and employing attack drone of all types, that now include Geran drones hitting UA positions and logistics, as well as guided bombs to dismantle the positions and block the logistics. Russia has technological and otherwise advantage in this department and had so for a while. Nevertheless, this very tactic requires one thing, and the main ingredient, that Ukraine does not have: men and lots of them. This is extremely clearly illustrated by the current Russian advances. Zaluzhny acknowledges the issue, but with a bit of spin:

Carrying out offensive actions requires significant mobilization resources and reserves, which, obviously, neither Ukraine nor Russia can count on either in the short term or in the long term. Moreover, the demographic situation in both countries will only worsen and approach catastrophic indicators in direct proportion to the period of continuation of the war. Most likely, the human resource will become non-renewable and, as a result, the most expensive.

Clearly a spin because Ukraine has been past the point he talks about for a very long time. That story for Russia is yet to be written. One also needs to remember that while Russia is taking mostly bare ground nowadays, millions of Ukrainians left to Russia when the war began and millions more live in the areas Russia occupied in the early months, likely more coming back once thing settle, especially Russia ends up taking more cities, such as Pokrovsk, for instance.

Massive attacks by autonomous swarms of cheap high-precision drones on completely different navigation channels will destroy not only personnel and weapons and military equipment on the front line, but also objects of critical economic and social infrastructure of the enemy.

Bolding is not mine, but from his article.

On that point, Russia also seems to be developing their Geran drones rather significantly. We are not talking about Shaheds anymore. The current version is basically a FAB-250 (90 kg vs ~100 kg for the FAB payload) that can be thrown anywhere in Ukraine. Some reports suggest that Geran-3 has the capacity to carry a payload of 300 kg, or double that of FAB-500 (I could be wrong, but I think it is 150 for FAB-500), at the cost of slashing the range to about 1,200 km or so. With further improved precision, ability to maneuver, etc, these things will be taking out any Ukrainian position with ease. Anti-drone nets and other “adaptations” are of no help here. Damage to infrastructure these things are thrown at would be significant, if not terminal.

Ukrainians seem to desperately try and replicate Shaheds but to no avail for now. They also most likely cannot produce them in the country at scale anyway. The cost is probably a prohibitive factor as well for now when estimates ranging from $30K and up per unit, provided scaled production in Russia, down from $100-150K reported a couple of years ago, if I recall correctly.

So, again, Russia seems to be way ahead of the game here as well and I do not see many factors that can contribute to a reversal. Zaluzhny cites economic restraints (which he again spins the same way as the human resource potential), which are clearly not in Ukraine’s favour today, not some arbitrary date in 2027 he refers to, when things are not going to suddenly get better with the war raging on and infrastructure being destroyed.

This will mean an increase in the intensity of attacks on infrastructure, energy systems, transport hubs and other key elements of government and life support. Continuation of information operations against the background of unfounded expectations. Therefore, the strategy of war will be aimed not so much at the capture of territories as at depleting the resources and capabilities of the enemy, creating chaos and, as a result, destroying the nation's ability to resist.

That is again exactly what Russia has ben doing for a long time because they have these capabilities today, though, perhaps, not yet completely in line with Zaluzhny’s vision.

Zaluzhny also puts a lot of emphasis on AI and greatly reduced need for humans. Perhaps, he is right. This has no effect on the offensive potential, however, where lack of men is the main constraint. It should also be noted, of course, that the developments are not one-sided.

This is from the Euromaidan article cited above, added by the authors, not from the current Zaluzhny’s essay:

Zaluzhnyi’s framework has implications beyond Ukraine. Most NATO countries couldn’t handle the scale of attacks Ukraine endures regularly. “In October alone, Ukraine faced over 2,000 air threats, including drones and missiles,” he noted recently. “Few NATO countries could counter such an onslaught without exhausting their air defense systems.”

This is completely ridiculous because Ukrainian air defense today is almost exclusively dependent on the supplies from the very NATO countries, most of which, according to the authors, couldn’t handle the attacks that Ukraine endures. The argument here is not whether this is true or not, but the logic is completely reversed. Moreover, this is not what Zaluzhny had (allegedly) said (and context unknown), as quoted in the very same paragraph cited above. Anyway, the article is trash, but hard to expect better from the outlet. Read the UP original. In spite of my comments above, it is a good short read. It seems to me that a bit of delusion is settling in though, which seems to be contagious once the persons gets involved in politics.

 

[swerve]

Thanks for the insight, kato.

Related to my post on the subject:

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The French & Italians would rather make more of their own SAMs to supply to Ukraine than pay the USA to do it.

One very, very weird thing is that some MAGAts are objecting to the Trump Ukraine weapons idea, saying the USA shouldn't be helping Ukraine, but spending money in the USA. I suspect that they're too stupid to understand that Trump's proposing to do exactly that, but even better, from their point of view: get Europeans to pay Americans to make weapons. Doh!

 

[seaspear]

It does not come as any surprise about the intelligence of many of the M.A.G.A,s

 

[crest]

Well to be fair I strongly suspect some if not a significant portion of what the u.s sends to Ukraine will never be paid for. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't some of this deal to be Ukraine paying for the weapons via mineral deals or from it's (west supplied budget). I know it's in general a get now pay later deal with noone jumping up to say I've got the bill just yet

 

[seaspear]

The U.K did not pay off its ww2 debts to the U.S and Canada until the end of 2006 ,it could be said that the arms supplies provided to Ukraine have significantly reduced Russia's ability to threaten N.A.T.O and have shown up shortcomings in how wars were perceived to be engaged and equipment needed

 

[KipPotapych]

The French & Italians would rather make more of their own SAMs to supply to Ukraine than pay the USA to do it.

And that is great and I fully support that. But they have been talking about it for years now. The result?

With this new contract, OCCAr is strengthening the European missile industry with the support of MBDA and major European players such as Thales, Avio and KNDS Ammo. The contract covers the production of new Aster 30 B1s (for the SAMP/T NG for France and Italy, as well as the naval defence systems of the three nations) and Aster 15s (for the French Navy).

It aims to accelerate production of the Aster missiles ordered in December 2022, with 134 additional missiles delivered between 2025 and 2026. Initiated in 2024, this increase in production rates is the result of adaptations made by MBDA and its subcontractors to meet the challenges of the defence effort.

Bolding is mine, article is from March.

France, Italy and the UK order more than 200 additional Aster missiles from MBDA - Naval News

France, Italy and the United Kingdom confirm the order for 218 additional Aster missiles and the acceleration of the delivery of missiles

www.navalnews.com

To meet the increased output, Lockheed Martin is expanding its manufacturing capabilities and exploring European production partnerships.

Negotiations are ongoing with several European partners to potentially establish missile production facilities across the continent. “We are in talks with European partners, including Diehl, regarding battery supplies, but technical details are not yet finalised,” said the head of the PAC-3 MSE and THAAD programmes.

Potential production sites under consideration include Poland, Denmark, and Spain. According to discussions, Poland may produce launch containers, while Spanish firm Sener could supply actuators, having already contributed similar components for the IRIS-T and GEM-T missile systems.

However, the creation of an additional production line outside the United States remains subject to approval by the U.S. government. “Whether a second production line outside the U.S. will be established depends on the decision of the U.S. government,” Reynolds emphasised.[…]

In a move to strengthen European defence capabilities, Lockheed Martin and German company Rheinmetall announced an expanded partnership in May. The two firms signed a memorandum to create a European Centre of Excellence for the production and distribution of missiles and related systems.

Bolding is mine and the article is from less than a week ago.

Lockheed Martin ramps up PAC-3 missile production, aims to reach 750 units annually

Lockheed Martin is ramping up production of its PAC-3 MSE surface-to-air missiles, responding to growing demand and aiming to manufacture 750 units annually by 2027.

defence-industry.eu

In the meantime,

While a year ago some were betting on the exhaustion of Moscow's stockpiles, in this area it appears, on the contrary, that Russian industry is now able to produce 130 to 150 cruise and ballistic missiles, and around 500 attack drones, each month, allowing it to maintain constant pressure on all of Ukraine's critical infrastructure, while using up Kyiv's reserves of surface-to-air missiles.

This info is from March and the Russian production capacity has increased since, particularly in Geran production and is reportedly increasing further.

Surface-to-air missile production in Europe must be increased tenfold in the face of the Russian threat

To meet Russia's current production levels of attack missiles and drones, surface-to-air missile production in Europe would need to be...

meta-defense.fr

In other words, this does not help Ukraine one bit. Whatever is happening in Europe now is many years away. Granted, the US cannot meet the demand either (as outlined in the second article cited above).

The whole situation is pretty nuts, really. This is from more than two years ago, when Russia was allegedly struggling to find missiles to strike Ukraine.

However, Russia’s continued strike campaign in 2023 has made one thing quite clear: it is unrealistic to expect Russia to ever “run out” of missiles. Despite sanctions and export controls, it appears likely that Russia will be able to produce or otherwise acquire the long-range strike capacity necessary to inflict significant damage upon Ukraine’s people, economy, and military.[…]

The most reliable counter is sustained Western support for Ukrainian air defense forces for the duration of the conflict. The continued, steady provision of air defenses into the foreseeable future will save lives, reduce costs of future reconstruction, and help end the war more quickly by enabling Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the face of superior Russian airpower. Moreover, providing air defenses has also forced Western countries to scale up production of these systems, which could have long-term benefits for Western defense readiness.

Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles

As Russian missile attacks against Ukraine persist into 2023, it has become clear that Russia isn’t going to run out of missiles. Sustained support for Ukrainian air defenses for the duration of the war is the only reliable counter to this threat.

www.csis.org

Now, two years later, Russia can eliminate the entire annual western production of SAMs within a week (provided there is a restraint on the available delivery assets, if any; otherwise it is a matter of a couple of days) if they throw their stockpile in, or within a quarter of a year of newly produced stuff. This is far from a winning strategy, but this is what everyone seems to concentrate on today. SCALP/Storm Shadow production is finally being dusted off just now… And so on.

I understand how things work and all the nuances. This is why I was saying years ago (and my opinion has not changed in this regard) that one has to be borderline insane to rely on the promises of “unlimited support” and build some grotesque plans of victory and whatnot. The best case scenario for Ukraine is the ability to resist, eventually somewhat (which could be today). The most realistic scenario is, in my opinion, this war ending with Russia achieving most of, if not all, their increasing demands, or worse, while Europe and the US has a fairly smooth (for Europe “fairly smooth” is given the circumstances) transition to the increased production capacities of their MICs. Those capacities will make little sense for Europe by then in the long run because eventually normalization of relationship with RU is inevitable (and the best way forward), which is probably why things are the way they are.

I may continue on this thought later, perhaps, relating to the current talk of sanctions, China, and whatnot. The US is basically setting up for the war with China (kind of a duh! moment, but yeah…)

One very, very weird thing is that some MAGAts are objecting to the Trump Ukraine weapons idea, saying the USA shouldn't be helping Ukraine, but spending money in the USA. I suspect that they're too stupid to understand that Trump's proposing to do exactly that, but even better, from their point of view: get Europeans to pay Americans to make weapons. Doh!

The reality is that Trump could do whatever he wants and the absolute majority of those people would eventually fall in line, regardless of what he does. It’s literally a cult and by definition only few ever escape before the cult is no more. Trump just doesn’t want to and (or because he) has other priorities. Also, from what I have seen, it is rather a “fringe minority” that thinks that sales of weapons to Ukraine is no bueno as long as someone actually pays for it (not via loans, but some cold hard cash). But they are also against giving up the existing inventory, which, again, doesn’t help Ukraine. None of that matters though because Trump builds the narrative. It is more likely that Epstein stuff will bring him down than aid to Ukraine if he chose to provide it.

 

[rsemmes]

Zelensky proposed fresh talks at the weekend, days after US President Donald Trump threatened Russia with "severe" sanctions if there was no ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv within 50 days.
On Tuesday, Moscow said it did not expect a "miraculous breakthrough" from the talks.

Zelensky: Ukraine and Russia to hold peace talks on Wednesday

Renewed efforts for a ceasefire come after the US pledged fresh military aid for Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder what will be the rational for not reaching an agreement. What future event will keep Zelenski "in the fight", until the next "future even".

Ukrainian security services arrested officials from the country’s main anti-corruption agency, the NABU, on Monday and conducted dozens of searches in a crackdown that the agency said went too far and had effectively shut down its entire mission. The SBU said it had arrested one of the officials as a suspected Russian spy and others for alleged ties to a banned party. But NABU, which has embarrassed senior government officials with corruption allegations, said the “vast majority” of cases involved unrelated allegations such as years-old traffic accidents.

Ukraine war briefing: International protest over arrests at anti-corruption agency

Transparency International condemns ‘massive’ pressure on NABU while G7 ambassadors express ‘serious concerns’. What we know on day 1,245

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine still "in the fight" against corruption... In some way.

Also in theguardian, a read a headline about Russia hitting a metro station in Kiev... They forgot to mention that the Artem (missile-related) factory was across the street. (More about that in the previous "Nature and Origins".)

 

[swerve]

The reality is that Trump could do whatever he wants and the absolute majority of those people would eventually fall in line, regardless of what he does. It’s literally a cult and by definition only few ever escape before the cult is no more. Trump just doesn’t want to and (or because he) has other priorities. Also, from what I have seen, it is rather a “fringe minority” that thinks that sales of weapons to Ukraine is no bueno as long as someone actually pays for it (not via loans, but some cold hard cash). But they are also against giving up the existing inventory, which, again, doesn’t help Ukraine. None of that matters though because Trump builds the narrative. It is more likely that Epstein stuff will bring him down than aid to Ukraine if he chose to provide it.

Some of the objections have been from Republican members of Congress.

The USA recently cut some food aid - & stopped deliveries immediately. This means that food which had been paid for, & was sitting in warehouses ready to be distributed, is being destroyed. That is costing the USA more than distributing it would.

It's not about the cost.

 

[Redshift]

Zelensky proposed fresh talks at the weekend, days after US President Donald Trump threatened Russia with "severe" sanctions if there was no ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv within 50 days.
On Tuesday, Moscow said it did not expect a "miraculous breakthrough" from the talks.

Zelensky: Ukraine and Russia to hold peace talks on Wednesday

Renewed efforts for a ceasefire come after the US pledged fresh military aid for Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder what will be the rational for not reaching an agreement. What future event will keep Zelenski "in the fight", until the next "future even".

Ukrainian security services arrested officials from the country’s main anti-corruption agency, the NABU, on Monday and conducted dozens of searches in a crackdown that the agency said went too far and had effectively shut down its entire mission. The SBU said it had arrested one of the officials as a suspected Russian spy and others for alleged ties to a banned party. But NABU, which has embarrassed senior government officials with corruption allegations, said the “vast majority” of cases involved unrelated allegations such as years-old traffic accidents.

Ukraine war briefing: International protest over arrests at anti-corruption agency

Transparency International condemns ‘massive’ pressure on NABU while G7 ambassadors express ‘serious concerns’. What we know on day 1,245

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine still "in the fight" against corruption... In some way.

Also in theguardian, a read a headline about Russia hitting a metro station in Kiev... They forgot to mention that the Artem (missile-related) factory was across the street. (More about that in the previous "Nature and Origins".)

Artem make an air to air missile R-27 (Russian originally of course) for defending Ukraine, god forbid that they should be allowed to do that eh?

 

[KipPotapych]

The best Russians can do now to help themselves is not to strike Kyiv and let the protests evolve into something bigger. Huge win for them today.

 

[KipPotapych]

Some of the objections have been from Republican members of Congress.

You mean like Marjorie Taylor Greene? Those can probably get certified as insane if such an examination were to be made by a group of medical professionals. Also elected mostly by people who probably should not even be allowed to vote for the same reason, but they are also mostly part of the Trump cult, not MTG cult (they would dump her if he tells them to).

Of course, there is also a grudge, the “Ukrainian betrayal” of the cult leader (and, thus, America). One of the reasons Trump genuinely hates Zelensky and projects it to the entire country. Look at what he does and wants to do to his political opponents and even compadres that disagree with him. He would surely “teach Ukraine a lesson” at every opportunity he has. It’s pretty clear.

For the most part though, they follow the leader, like all cults do and come in line, whatever he decides is the right path forward at any given moment, which is often mutually exclusive paths from one moment to the next.

The USA recently cut some food aid - & stopped deliveries immediately. This means that food which had been paid for, & was sitting in warehouses ready to be distributed, is being destroyed. That is costing the USA more than distributing it would.

It's not about the cost.

It certainly is about costs. Not only this is how many government decisions are made, but this administration also completely lacks understanding of how things work in general. It’s full of incompetent people that were selected for their posts because of their alignment with the cult. Those who are competent generally fall in line because if you are not with the cult, you are out and better have some great leverage (Musk and vital importance of SpaceX, as the most recent example, still pending further developments). That simple.

Overall though, have you never heard of a restructuring of some $10M government program/department that cost twice that or more to do? Happens all the time. Spending a dollar to save a penny is a “normal” government operation. It may be different in Europe or elsewhere, here in Canada and the US it is not that unusual.

Also, gaslighting, of course - that is, he did what he said he would do and an average supporter lacks knowledge/experience and mental capacity to understand that they are being had. Same as paying a rather high selective sales tax and celebrating tariffs, while strongly opposing tax increases and believing that you in the UK and me in Canada are paying to the US treasury. Or paying more for stuff that cost less six months ago and celebrating because Trump said that he slashed costs by over 1,000%. It’s a clown show, with a clown on stage and clowns in the audience, that we, unfortunately, have to live with until his term is over or he drops dead, whichever comes first. We will see what happens after. Things may change when Democrats take Congress in the midterms, but the next couple of years after will be a write-off regardless, probably infighting, impeachment or two, etc.

On the brighter note (well, not really, but funny), the US Army went all bananas yesterday with their posting on X:



They actually deleted the post after the X community went viral laughing at them (well-deserved).



To relate it to this thread:



This is also after that embarrassing post/commercial by Hagseth, also related to drones (I think it was on the Pentagon page, but not certain).

 

[swerve]

That US Army grenade dropping thing is scary, because of the detachment from reality it shows. Did they really not understand that it'd be laughed at? What else don't they understand, despite it being obvious to everyone in the real world?

 

[Feanor]

Artem make an air to air missile R-27 (Russian originally of course) for defending Ukraine, god forbid that they should be allowed to do that eh?

You seem to be missing (intentionally ignoring?) the point. The headline is misleading because it implies the target was a subway station. In this war (as in WWII) subway stations serve as makeshift bomb shelters during air strikes. A factory producing military goods on the other hand is a very different kind of target. It's an example of media shaping a narrative by intentionally obscuring some facts and highlighting others. By the way, it also was involved (unclear if still) in production of BM-30 missiles of Ukrainian manufacture, namely the Ol'kha, and of shell casings for 152 and 155 mm shells. It's a major military-industrial facility, and it's been hit before.

As for "being allowed to do that", what exactly do you mean? Russia and Ukraine are at war. Russia will destroy Ukrainian MIC targets (and Ukraine Russians ones) wherever deemed feasible and worth the effort. The idea that Russia would somehow exempt some of them from this strike campaign is ludicrous. The Izhevsk Kupol plant that manufactures Tor SAMs which are for air defense was targeted by Ukraine. God forbid they should be allowed to produce their SAMs unmolested? Sheer lunacy.

 

[Redshift]

You seem to be missing (intentionally ignoring?) the point. The headline is misleading because it implies the target was a subway station. In this war (as in WWII) subway stations serve as makeshift bomb shelters during air strikes. A factory producing military goods on the other hand is a very different kind of target. It's an example of media shaping a narrative by intentionally obscuring some facts and highlighting others. By the way, it also was involved (unclear if still) in production of BM-30 missiles of Ukrainian manufacture, namely the Ol'kha, and of shell casings for 152 and 155 mm shells. It's a major military-industrial facility, and it's been hit before.

As for "being allowed to do that", what exactly do you mean? Russia and Ukraine are at war. Russia will destroy Ukrainian MIC targets (and Ukraine Russians ones) wherever deemed feasible and worth the effort. The idea that Russia would somehow exempt some of them from this strike campaign is ludicrous. The Izhevsk Kupol plant that manufactures Tor SAMs which are for air defense was targeted by Ukraine. God forbid they should be allowed to produce their SAMs unmolested? Sheer lunacy.

"Russia and Ukraine are at war" implies that somehow Ukraine are an equal partner in this conflict, they are not.

I was actually making a point against Rsemmes as he trivialises the impact of the war on Ukraine and loved nothing more than to imply that Ukraine is to blame for Russian attacks on it.

This is not two countries "at war" this is one country invading another.

 

[SinisterMinister]

That US Army grenade dropping thing is scary, because of the detachment from reality it shows. Did they really not understand that it'd be laughed at? What else don't they understand, despite it being obvious to everyone in the real world?

I know this is probably rhetorical but it seems the US military still does not understand how to mass produce anything at low cost. The structure/incentive of the MIC is to build very expensive things that can be produced at low volume. They don't really seem to have any way to operate otherwise, and as we have seen in Ukraine, having the largest number of the cheap precision munitions is actually quite important.

The US military is in for a rude awakening if it ever has to fight a peer conflict that lasts >3 months.

 

[rsemmes]

"Russia and Ukraine are at war" implies that somehow Ukraine are an equal partner in this conflict, they are not.
I was actually making a point against Rsemmes as he trivialises the impact of the war on Ukraine and loved nothing more than to imply that Ukraine is to blame for Russian attacks on it.
This is not two countries "at war" this is one country invading another.

Your "imply" implies mind reading?
Just curious about how posting that Russia has hit a metro station is "trivializing"... In your universe.

When on country invades another country and this one fights back, they are at war. It is true that they are not equal, Ukraine is at the receiving end.

Zelenski. on the other hand, seems to trivialize that impact. It (Istanbul) lasted 40 minutes, why Ukraine insists on a Putin-Zelenski meeting, with Trump and Erdongan also present now? They will go (if) for the signature and the photograph.

 

[Feanor]

"Russia and Ukraine are at war" implies that somehow Ukraine are an equal partner in this conflict, they are not.

I was actually making a point against Rsemmes as he trivialises the impact of the war on Ukraine and loved nothing more than to imply that Ukraine is to blame for Russian attacks on it.

This is not two countries "at war" this is one country invading another.

It does not imply that they are partners. It explicitly states that they are antagonists... is there something I'm misunderstanding about your point? When one country invades another they are at war. This is absolutely two countries at war. They are at war because* Russia invaded Ukraine.

*Proximate cause. We'll leave discussion of ultimate causes out of this one because it's a massive tangent.

That US Army grenade dropping thing is scary, because of the detachment from reality it shows. Did they really not understand that it'd be laughed at? What else don't they understand, despite it being obvious to everyone in the real world?

Russian sources are talking about some Google Earth images being digitally manipulated to insert picture of US aircraft that aren't actually there. If accurate, it's reminiscent of Russia's recent (idiotic) efforts to paint fake jets onto runways to fool someone... not sure who. But they must have thought someone would buy it.

A smart man learns from the mistakes of others. A fool learns from his own.

The one thing I will say is that wars tend to be powerful reality checks on military bureaucracies. And like any organization, Armed Forces are liable to become ossified and set in their ways. We can laugh at the US and their "exciting" grenade drop all we want, but how many European countries have no substantial stocks of loitering munitions and no realistic plans for acquiring them? This is 3.5 years into a war where the Lancet showed everyone what a cheap and reliable LM can do in real battlefield conditions. At least the US had the Switchblade family, lackluster as they may have turned out to be. I suspect after one US Army column burning due to a cloud of cheap drones descending on them, we will see an EW kit per vehicle, drone-defense teams riding on top, SHORAD accompanying all substantial troop movement, dispersal of assets, etc. If the Russian war machine learned this lesson for all their inertia of thought (forming tank divisions and tank armies in the 2010s like it's 1935), the significantly more adaptable US Armed Forces certainly will get there.

 

[rsemmes]

Many points have been argued before, but it's nice to see them neatly organized.

My views on...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/389278459_The_Russia-Ukraine_War_its_Nature_and_Origins

It was predictable that the counteroffensive in 2023 would fail to reach its stated goals and that the continuation of the war would, in addition to many more casualties and devastation of Ukraine, lead to worse position and terms for Ukraine in case of any peace deal with Russia.
Oleksiy Arestovych, who became the main promoter of Zelenskyy’s narrative about the war during the first stage of the war as a Zelenskyy presidential office adviser, later admitted that he himself was misleading Ukrainians about the imminent Ukrainian victory and other key aspects. However, his such false statements were then reported at face value by the Ukrainian and much of the Western media even though they lacked evidence and were in his interest and Zelenskyy’s interest. After Arestovych left his adviser’s position and Ukraine, stayed in the US, and faced prosecution in Ukraine, his admissions against his interest concerning the war and the peace deal were not reported by the same media, even though they were corroborated by various other sources.
-I did mentioned (not in this forum) that it will fail (not that difficult to predict) and I wondered (and I still wonder) what Boris said (and how candid is he going to be in his memoirs) and why the war didn't end in 2022 when Russia was willing to return the south of Ukraine. We will have to wait for some Pentagon Papers from Ukraine.

Governments often resort to full-scale propaganda and disinformation campaigns and censorship during wars in which they are involved. They vilify their adversaries and inflate their military casualties, while minimizing their own military casualties and inflating their civilian casualties. They censor information that is damaging to them.
They (Western journalists) were restricted by the Ukrainian government in their coverage of military matters and often reported its claims at face value without verification. And (Think Tanks) opposed peaceful resolution of this conflict.
Similarly, statements by Zelenskyy about dozen assassination attempts against him by Russia were reported at face value by the Western and Ukrainian media but lacked reliable evidence and he and his officials also had the vested interest.
-The Five O'clock Follies, Vietnam is long gone.

The peace deal negotiations started just a few days after the invasion.
Russian forces basically retreated from Kyiv and Northern Ukraine areas in spring 2022 largely as result of peace talks. (Then, Russia *retreating (under pressure) from Kharkov and Kherson.)
Russian forces before the Ukrainian counteroffensive erected fortified defensive lines in the South and did not retreat during the summer 2023.
-A lot of people just obviate that or decide to focus only on the initial positions for those negotiations, instead of in the fact that there were (have been) negotiations going on. Also, the huge difference between reconquering or reoccupying territory.

(The support for Zelenski and his policies based on) Unreliable public opinion polls, a rally around the flag effect, and on selective and unrepresentative "Ukrainian voices" in the Western media.
Criminalization of political dissent by the undemocratic Zelenskyy government. Telephone calls, conversations between people, and social media posts and likes were treated as "public" venues, and many people were charged and prosecuted for such actions.
-And less than democratic and according to the law reprisals on those territories reoccupied.

The Zelenskyy government almost immediately after the Russian invasion banned men 18 to 60 years old from leaving Ukraine, with limited exceptions. However, despite the ban, Eurostat data showed that 650,000 Ukrainian men of military age fled to the EU countries.
-I think we can call that showing support for Zelenski's policies... with their feet.

The former president Petro Poroshenko, the former German chancellor Angela Merkel, and the former French president Francois Hollande stated after the Russian invasion in 2022 that they signed the Minsk agreements to buy time and strengthen the Ukrainian forces.
-Some people want to see the world in B&W, what it is true in a way... It is all black.