KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I posted here a while ago (end of 2022 early 2023 maybe?) that there were actually preparations by the Russians for a bloody battle. There were field hospitals set up, blood drives, etc (which probably worked its way into the intel suggesting Russian invasion being imminent). I am guessing they just didn’t expect it to be that bloody. I have seen more evidence of it since, but not sure if posted here. If I recall correctly, the article that talked about that I cited here was from The Economist.
Surely there were contingencies that were thought of. Long war it became was certainly not of them though. I personally believe that the three-day Ukraine capture is complete and unsubstantiated nonsense. If I recall correctly, it began by the statements made by the interrogated captured Russian soldier in the first days who claimed that his unit was allegedly sent to Ukraine with enough food supplies for three days. Then there were “discovered” parade uniforms and medals and SBU suggested that the Russians planned a parade in Kyiv within days after deployment. Stuff like that. All propaganda, regardless of who made the claim.
I believe there is plenty of evidence that suggests there was no actual “3-day Special Military Operation” plan and that Putin refused to believe otherwise. Again, that’s nonsense. Surely, there was a (probably low likelihood) contingency where Ukraine would just fold and capitulate or be simply overwhelmed as Georgia was 14 years prior (time flies!). Note that the latter didn’t happen in 3 days either. Ukraine is a much bigger country with significantly more resources and it had been actively at war for nearly 8 years before the invasion. Common sense suggests that the probability of UA troops fighting “Russian proxies” (as well Russians to a much lesser degree) switching sides or deserting en masse was virtually zero. But overwhelming these very forces quickly was probably one of the most likely contingencies considered. And it wouldn’t be unreasonable had Russia chose to scale down its plans and overwhelmed the Donbas, south as they did, and then move further if necessary. Invasion of Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv, along with the aforementioned areas was kind of nuts, which we and they now know. But we are here, not there.
All this “analysis” and conclusions suggesting Russians/Putin thought they would take Ukraine in 3 days or a week or whatever suggests that Russians/Putin are simply too stupid to realize simple realities that a child could see if explained the circumstances. They/he aren’t as stupid, clearly. Like Biden said, quoted here previously, a rational actor who miscalculated. The greatest miscalculation was probably in the capabilities of the Russian Forces; Ukrainian will to fight was probably second, but it is heavily affected by the former (for instance, the number of volunteers in the first weeks/months of invasion vs today).
Edit: drawing early 2022 parallels here, with the exception, perhaps, of “having a low opinion to begin with”:
Obviously not the same thing, but a common theme clearly.
Surely there were contingencies that were thought of. Long war it became was certainly not of them though. I personally believe that the three-day Ukraine capture is complete and unsubstantiated nonsense. If I recall correctly, it began by the statements made by the interrogated captured Russian soldier in the first days who claimed that his unit was allegedly sent to Ukraine with enough food supplies for three days. Then there were “discovered” parade uniforms and medals and SBU suggested that the Russians planned a parade in Kyiv within days after deployment. Stuff like that. All propaganda, regardless of who made the claim.
I believe there is plenty of evidence that suggests there was no actual “3-day Special Military Operation” plan and that Putin refused to believe otherwise. Again, that’s nonsense. Surely, there was a (probably low likelihood) contingency where Ukraine would just fold and capitulate or be simply overwhelmed as Georgia was 14 years prior (time flies!). Note that the latter didn’t happen in 3 days either. Ukraine is a much bigger country with significantly more resources and it had been actively at war for nearly 8 years before the invasion. Common sense suggests that the probability of UA troops fighting “Russian proxies” (as well Russians to a much lesser degree) switching sides or deserting en masse was virtually zero. But overwhelming these very forces quickly was probably one of the most likely contingencies considered. And it wouldn’t be unreasonable had Russia chose to scale down its plans and overwhelmed the Donbas, south as they did, and then move further if necessary. Invasion of Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv, along with the aforementioned areas was kind of nuts, which we and they now know. But we are here, not there.
All this “analysis” and conclusions suggesting Russians/Putin thought they would take Ukraine in 3 days or a week or whatever suggests that Russians/Putin are simply too stupid to realize simple realities that a child could see if explained the circumstances. They/he aren’t as stupid, clearly. Like Biden said, quoted here previously, a rational actor who miscalculated. The greatest miscalculation was probably in the capabilities of the Russian Forces; Ukrainian will to fight was probably second, but it is heavily affected by the former (for instance, the number of volunteers in the first weeks/months of invasion vs today).
Edit: drawing early 2022 parallels here, with the exception, perhaps, of “having a low opinion to begin with”:
Obviously not the same thing, but a common theme clearly.
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