The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

It is a long report...

A British general reported that British Royal Marine commandos took part in covert operations in Ukraine and supported "discreet operations in a hugely sensitive environment."
-We are not participating in this war, that is clear to most people.

(According to) the German investigation (and their own investigations) the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up with involvement of the Ukrainian special forces and Poland refused to disclose the information about the perpetrators and allowed a Ukrainian suspect to escape to Ukraine after Germany informed the Polish authorities about him.
(Also, suggested involvement of the US Navy in that operation/terrorist attack, consistent with the public promise of Biden to end the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian team was prepared and used as a cover for the US.)
-That is the West showing respect for International Law.

Ukrainian casualties ~750,000. Russian casualties ~600,000. The never seen human waves attacks, the stubborn defence of Bakhmut and other locations, the Robotine and Kursk offensives. Russia on the offensive, but with fire superiority; shells, glide bombs and missiles.
-A lot of different figures there, always too low for Ukraine and too high for Russia. I would guess a higher number for Russia, but just a guess.

The odds of winning the war, specifically the war of attrition, were heavily weighted in favor of Russia since the Russian invasion. The uncertainty involved the scale of the defeat of Ukraine and loss of its territory, which could only be reduced by a peaceful settlement.
The prolongation of the war without real prospects of Ukraine winning the war also meant large military and civilian casualties, economic and other damage, and much worse conditions for Ukraine for any future peace deal.
-I keep wondering myself why Zelenski keeps Ukraine "in the fight". His "leadership" is more important than his country? That happened before too.

Since 2015, the CIA has spent tens of millions of dollars to transform Ukraine’s Soviet-formed services into potent allies against Moscow... The CIA worked with the SBU to create an entirely new directorate, officials said, one that would focus on so-called "active measures" operations against Russia.
-Threat, what threat?

After refusing to recognize Ukraine as even a potential EU member before the Russian invasion, the EU opened accession process for Ukraine during the war and offered Ukraine a candidate status.
-Is that the bribe to keep Ukraine "in the fight"? There is no expire date for "candidate status".

Putin dropped demilitarization, Zelenskyy dropped the NATO membership. Davyd Arakhamia, the head of the Zelenskyy’s party faction in the Ukrainian parliament and the head of the Ukrainian delegation in the Ukraine-Russia talks independently confirmed that the peace deal could had been reached in spring 2022 if Ukraine agreed to neutrality and that the British prime-minister blocked it. Ukrainian neutrality was the main Russian condition.
Mevlut Cavusoglu, the foreign minister of Turkey, which hosted the peace talks in Istanbul, said on April 20, 2022 that Turkey "did not think that the Russia-Ukraine war would last that long after the peace talks in Istanbul.. but following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, it was the impression that... there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue, let the war continue and Russia get weaker."
-Boris can be proud of his leadership. Now, who is Boris and why? For what interests was he working?

Putin's main condition was buried in an Annex to this document that they were working on. And it included limits on the precise kinds of weapons systems that Ukraine could have after the deal, such that Ukraine would basically be neutered as a military force. And there were no similar constraints on Russia. Russia wasn't required to pull back. Russia wasn't required to have a buffer zone from the Ukrainian border, wasn't required to have the same constraints on its military facing Ukraine. And so, people inside Ukraine and people outside Ukraine started asking questions about whether this was a good deal, and it was at that point that it fell apart.
-Was that the reason to block the deal? Could that had been negotiated?

The former Zelenskyy’s adviser and a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the peace talks stated that the talks ended because the West decided to use Ukraine as a trap to fight Putin’s Russia.
Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, stated publicly that the West blocked a peace deal to end the Ukraine war in spring 2022 and used Ukraine for a proxy war with Russia in a failed strategy: "It is proven that right at the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, on at least two very promising occasions, the West did not allow the Ukrainians to conclude a ceasefire with fair conditions. Because a painfully wrong decision has already been made. The West will take advantage of Russia's violation of international law, supplying Ukraine with
heaps of weapons, billions of dollars, burdening Russia with massive sanctions, attacking Russia's main mineral wealth revenues, and expecting a Ukrainian soldier, until the last one, to bring him the head of a Russian bear on a platter in the form of a militarily exhausted, economically ruined, internationally isolated and internally subverted Russia. This was, and unfortunately still is, a Western strategy that I say openly at home and abroad is not working, that it has failed."
-The Pentagon Papers will sort it out... in 20 years.

Arakhamia, the head of Ukrainian delegation at peace talks appeared to independently confirm that Russia withdrew its forces from the Kyiv area and other large areas of Northern Ukraine as a part of peace deal talks. Putin also stated that in Istanbul "they just told us that we need to show a sign that Russia really intends to resolve these issues peacefully, that we need to withdraw troops from Kyiv, which we have done."
The analysis shows that a peace deal was the best option for Ukraine as a whole prior and after the Russian invasion in February 2022 since chances of Ukraine defeating Russia were close to zero because of the noted Russian military advantage in various key areas. Such peaceful resolution of the conflict could have avoided or minimized devastating consequences of the war to Ukraine, in particular, a large number of casualties, loss of territories, destruction of energy generation, and significant economic losses. The longer war continues, the worse conditions of any peace deal to Ukraine would be.
US officials privately admitted even soon after the US and the UK de facto blocked in spring 2022 a peace deal, which was close to been finalized, that Ukraine winning the war with Russia and taking back all territories in the 1991 borders was highly unlikely.
-Not according to some people here, it seems.

NATO membership of Ukraine would never be accepted by Russia and it is "the red line."
-How many times that has to be pointed out?

 

[rsemmes]

Really...

The war in Ukraine also has elements of the civil war which began in Donbas in 2014.
Out of more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees recorded by the UN in January 2023, 2.9 million were reported in Russia before October 2022, compared to 1.6 million in Poland and 1.0 million in Germany. Many Ukrainian refugees were forced to move to Russia during the war. However, the absolute majority of the Ukrainian refugees remained in Russia long after their arrival and did not move to other countries despite better economic benefits and opportunities for Ukrainian refugees in EU member states, Canada, and the US.
Estimated 4,000 civilians were killed in Donbas during the civil war since 2014. UN and OCSE reports and the analysis of thousands of videos and media and social media reports show that the absolute majority of the civilian casualties were in separatist controlled part of Donbas, primarily as result of shelling by the Ukrainian forces aimed at military targets or indiscriminate shelling.
-"Von der Leyen Compares Russian Invasion of Ukraine to Britain’s Rule in Ireland". Not the situation in the Donbas.

Civilian casualties in Ukraine were often inflated or misrepresented for political reasons by the Russian, DNR, LNR, and Western governments and the media.
The estimated civilian casualty ratio of 1 killed civilian to about 16 killed combatants during three years of the Russia-Ukraine war is one of the lowest in modern wars and the lowest in wars of such scale, intensity, and duration.
Various evidence, along with findings of UN and Amnesty International reports and US intelligence and military experts, shows that the overwhelming majority of civilians in the Ukrainian-controlled territories and in separatist-controlled Donbas were killed by Russian and separatist and to a much lesser extent by Ukrainian military strikes. Videos, photos, and Amnesty International (2022a) report show that populated civilian areas and facilities, such as cities, towns, villages, apartment buildings, schools, universities, hospitals, hotels, etc. were often used for military purposes, primarily by the Ukrainian forces.
-First, we know how much US loves AI. Then, we love criminals... but the small fish. I still wonder why someone will try to see this war as different to any other war (apart from being in fashion this season.)

Almost all strikes with largest Ukrainian and Russian civilian casualties either happened near military targets as result of missed or deviated for various reasons strikes, such as missiles inaccuracy, guidance, shot-downs by air defense or jamming.
The government and media reports concerning such strikes, with few exceptions omitted military casualties during such strikes and their location near military targets or critical infrastructure.
(-It seems that this one was dedicated to Redshift.)
-Russia is hitting more, Russia is causing more collateral damage and not being "that" careful. It seems that reporting has suffered some "collateral damage" too; or blatant bias. Yes, some criminals are more criminal than others (and we love "our" criminals).

Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner. However, they were not formal written agreements. The US leaders opposed giving such formal guarantees.
The Russian government before the Russian invasion demanded that the US and Ukraine formally renounced the NATO accession of Ukraine and warned that Russia would use military force to prevent it.
There was increasing US and other NATO countries military involvement in Ukraine after the Western-backed violent overthrow of the Yanukovych government and during the civil war and Russian military intervention in Donbas. Ukraine became a US client state and was increasingly used as US/NATO bulwark to contain Russia without Ukraine formally joining NATO and without NATO having obligation to defend Ukraine in case of a Russian invasion under article 5 of the NATO treaty.
The Russian government inflated the security risk and its immediacy.
-Because the Russian government cannot see any of that as a (credible) threat.

 

[rsemmes]

Long.

Arakhamia, the head of the Ukrainian delegation at the peace talks stated that that Ukrainian neutrality was main Russian condition for the peace deal and that the war could have ended in spring of 2022 if Ukraine had agreed to neutrality.
This war cannot be classified as a preventive war under the international law because there were no such imminent security threats.
Zelenskyy could have prevented the Russian invasion of Ukraine and devastating consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war to Ukraine if he agreed before the war to renounce the NATO membership goal, return to neutral status of Ukraine, and agreed to implement the Minsk agreements.
Zelenskyy stated that he was told privately by Biden and other NATO leaders before the Russian invasion that "you’re not going to be a NATO member, but publicly, the doors will remain open."
-I wonder what could be the "intention" behind that. (Ukraine is being used and Zelenski is happy with that.)

Russian imperialism is presented by the Ukrainian and Western governments and the media as the main reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They regarded occupation and annexation of entire Ukraine as the goal of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia supported separatists in Donbas. But such support also started after the Yanukovych government overthrow.
Russian imperialism was a significant factor in Putin’s policy towards Ukraine, but it was secondary to the NATO membership of Ukraine.
-Donbas being used.

The analysis of various evidence suggests that the initial goal of the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not include occupation and annexation of entire Ukraine. The size of the initial invasion force was insufficient for such purposes.
Similarly, the size of the original invasion force was insufficient to seize Kyiv unless there was no significant resistance.
There was no Russian military or civilian administration organized in occupied regions of Ukraine in the first month of the war.
-As it has been pointed out, as I have pointed out; a coup de main.

There is no evidence of Russian plans to invade other post-Soviet countries or NATO members.
Russia moved to annex the occupied territories following Zelenskyy’s reversal of his course and ending the peace deal talks after the US along with other Western countries blocked such peace deal in April 2022.
-No Arab country supported the Palestinian State in 1948. They lost, they lost in 1967... Let's start the game again? (I am not considering what is "legal" here, just the facts.)

The Chief of Staff of the Azov brigade and the leader of the neo-Nazi Azov movement, which included the Azov units and the National Corps party, threated Zelenskyy against making a peace deal at the beginning of the war and in June 2024 after he expressed willingness to negotiate the war end.
-I thought it could be the EU carrot. Probably, it's more complicated than that.

While Ukraine was a semi-democracy or largely democratic since its independence in 1991, it became largely undemocratic since the violent overthrow of the government during the Euromaidan in 2014.
Ukraine, like Russia, had a largely undemocratic system.
Zelenskyy used the Russian invasion and the war as a pretext to eliminate most of the political opposition and potential rivals for power and to consolidate his largely undemocratic rule in Ukraine.
Opinion polls show that half of voters in Ukraine before the Russia-Ukraine war expressed intention to vote for the political parties, whose leaders are charged with or are reportedly investigated for state treason. This was three times more than for the Zelenskyy’s ruling party.
(A court in Spain refused to extradite Anatolii Sharij on the request of the Zelenskyy government after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.)
The head of the Security and Defense Council of Ukraine stated that "we do not have any opposition."
There were many Ukrainians imprisoned, killed or disappeared because of their political views.
Such actions as cancelling the presidential elections, suppression of media and religious freedom, ban of opposition parties, and politically motivated prosecution of the opposition leaders signify a move towards undemocratic rule.
-A war between equals, even if Ukraine looks a lot like one of those Latin-America dictatorships.

The US and other Western governments de facto backed the violent undemocratic and illegal overthrow of the Yanukovych government for geopolitical reasons.
They immediately recognized the new Maidan government after the seizure of the presidential administration and the parliament by the Maidan forces and the parliament vote to remove
Yanukovych even though such actions violated the agreement signed on February 21, 2014, by Yanukovych, the Maidan opposition leaders, and representatives of France, Germany, and Poland as well as the Constitution of Ukraine.
The violent overthrow of the Yanukovych government escalated into the civil war in Donbas with pro-Russian separatists and an international conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the West and Russia. Russia escalated the conflict by conducting military interventions in Crimea and Donbas and annexing in the violation of the international law Crimea.
Contrary to the Russian government and media claim that the Russian invasion of Ukraine aimed at stopping genocide of ethnic Russians or Russian speakers, there was no evidence of such genocide in Ukraine, including Donbas.
There was no immediate prospect of Ukraine building nuclear or biological weapons.
The end of the Russia-Ukraine war can lead to new internal conflicts in Ukraine.
-Is that why Russia must trust the West? Is that why Zelenski keeps himself "in the fight"?

Reality (History) is always murkier.

 

[Rob c]

Such actions as cancelling the presidential elections, suppression of media and religious freedom, ban of opposition parties, and politically motivated prosecution of the opposition leaders signify a move towards undemocratic rule.
-A war betweeThis type of action is equals, even if Ukraine looks a lot like one of those Latin-America dictatorships.

Cancelling of elections and forming of a war government is quite a common event in a significant war. In WW2 the UK and several others involved did exactly this including my own country NZ. This is done to allow for focus on the war and for the government not to have to be involved in the emotive side of politics to the extent required by democrocy in peace time.

 

[Feanor]

Cancelling of elections and forming of a war government is quite a common event in a significant war. In WW2 the UK and several others involved did exactly this including my own country NZ. This is done to allow for focus on the war and for the government not to have to be involved in the emotive side of politics to the extent required by democrocy in peace time.

Ukraine's slide towards authoritarianism started after the Euromaidan and continued into this war. Lists of banned books, films, and political parties appeared well before the current invasion. As such, I personally wouldn't even criticize Zelensky much for cancelling elections during a war, but I would keep in mind the broader context. The narrative of "the little democracy that could" is in my opinion thoroughly dishonest.

 

[rsemmes]

Cancelling of elections and forming of a war government is quite a common event in a significant war. In WW2 the UK and several others involved did exactly this including my own country NZ. This is done to allow for focus on the war and for the government not to have to be involved in the emotive side of politics to the extent required by democrocy in peace time.

Fair point. Only that it is a longer (suppression of media and religious freedom, ban of opposition parties, and politically motivated prosecution of the opposition leaders) point.

 

[seaspear]

By religious freedom are you meaning the Russian orthodox church which has been an avid supporter of President Putin?

 

[Rob c]

Fair point. Only that it is a longer (suppression of media and religious freedom, ban of opposition parties, and politically motivated prosecution of the opposition leaders) point.

One could possibly ague that the state of conflict started in 2014 or the earlier civil unrest, however no attempt at normalising the democratic process has been attempted when the opportunity existed

 

[KipPotapych]

Interesting post by Fabian Hoffmann today:



Very smart individual that I have a great deal of respect for, but he is completely missing the point here, in my humble opinion.

I wonder what kind of automation that wasn’t shown in the video he would like to see in such a production facility. It appears to me that it is a pretty well established setup.

This is a longer video on youtube dubbed in English (most have probably seen one version of this or another by now);

I don’t know how much more meaningful automation is possible here, but the key idea to the efficiency in this case is a (relatively) cheap drone produced en masse. There is no reason at this point to develop the “industrial base” Fabian is talking about (if one exists). There is no reason to dump billions of dollars that do not need to be dumped. The facility was built for this particular war less than two years ago (?) and is still expanding. It also appears from the video that the setup makes it virtually impossible for Ukraine to cause any significant damage to the facility and any meaningful disruption of the production process. Definitely not with the means they have at their disposal today. A few dozens (or more, considering interception?) of Tomahawks would probably make a huge dent or destroy it completely, but this is not in the cards, I don’t think. In other words, I do not believe there is a much more efficient way to operate this production and, hence, Fabian’s post completely misses the mark.

I think it should also be appreciated that no one else can produce anything similar at the scale the Russians do it today. For the Russians, this is a necessity dictated by their war effort that has questionable viability after the war is over. Even if further significant automation is possible, the cost analysis probably dictates that this is the way to do things; otherwise, they would be importing the equipment necessary to achieve the desired optimization.

The basic premise that the Russians are basically apes who can’t do things right has been proven to be false many times over the past 3.5 years, but for whatever reason it is still prevalent today. In the meantime, we are trying to find ways to counter this very significant threat in Ukraine and we are not finding many efficient answers at the moment that would not require very significant investment in our own “efficient” capacity that would also remain viable after this war is over. A paradox, in a way, if you believe Fabian’s point of view.

Another related note to be made here. I saw Ukrainian outlets talking about the use of child labour after this video was revealed. The reason is that they reveal in the video that it is mostly children working the floor at the facility. One thing they don’t talk about that is also mentioned in the video is that the grade nine kids are enrolled into, what they call, college that is also built on site upon completion of which they start their work at the factory. The eduction system is set up (since the Soviet Union times) so that if you want to go into trades (plumber, electrician, millwright, etc) or be factory worker, you enrol into a college after completing your grade 9 (age 15-16) and of you go with your career. Those planning on attending a university attend grade 10 and 11 of high school. Grade 9 provides you with something like general basic education diploma/certificate that is sufficient for college. Upon completion of college, you can enrol into a university as well, provided you pass the exams. Something like this. I am fairly certain (99.99% sure) Ukraine itself has the exact same system in place as well.

 

[rsemmes]

One could possibly ague that the state of conflict started in 2014 or the earlier civil unrest, however no attempt at normalising the democratic process has been attempted when the opportunity existed

Yes, as the report says.

 

[rsemmes]

By religious freedom are you meaning the Russian orthodox church which has been an avid supporter of President Putin?

Is that what you read in the report?

 

[seaspear]

Is that what you read in the report?

This was in reference to your comment on religious freedom suppression and was a question

 

[rsemmes]

This was in reference to your comment on religious freedom suppression and was a question

My comment about a paragraph and a report talking of the Ukrainian orthodox church?
Now I should ask, did you read the report, the quotation or just my comment?

 

[Feanor]

There is information of Russian forces penetrating deep into Pokrovsk itself, reaching allegedly as far as the railroad. There has been some footage of Russian infantry elements engaged inside Pokrovsk proper, ambushing Ukrainian transport. The reports state that Ukraine has a critical shortage of infantry on the front line, and apparently this has allowed Russian elements to penetrate rather then break through or assault Ukrainian positions. It's unclear if Russia will be able to hold on to this, and if they even intend to or if these are raids intended to disorganize Ukrainian defenses. It is however possible, that similar to Russian efforts in Avdeevka and Kursk region, a narrow initial penetration will be used to break open Ukrainian defenses and establish Russian forces in the city.

This comes as Russian advances on the eastern flank roll up to Mirnograd. Novoekonomichnoe is now mostly, and likely soon completely, under Russian control, as are Nikolaevka and Mirolyubovka. Mikhailovka remains unclear at this time. Russian forces have not yet made a play for either of the two large refuse mounds or for Rodinskoe. Given the success of the eastern flank and the failure of the western one I always assumed that Russian forces would start a proper envelopment of Mirnograd before Pokrovsk. It's a smaller town, and it's essentially two "towns" connected by a narrow bottle neck, meaning it's possible to assault it piecemeal. It also has fewer major roads leading out of it. However it now might be the case that Pokrovsk falls first and Mirnograd ends up surrounded from the west.

We might be seeing the fall of Ukraine's defenses here much sooner then anticipated.

Colonelcassad

Покровское направление: подразделения ВС РФ организовали прорыв на участке Зверево-Перше Травня-Троянда и вошли в город Покровск (Красноармейск), заняв несколько улиц и подобравшись к железной дороге. Сейчас продолжаются бои за овладение южной частью города, основная линия обороны подразделений...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Кадры освобождения населённого пункта Новоэкономическое с демонстрацией флагов военнослужащими из 51-й ОА в составе ГрВ "Центр" российской армии показал телеканал "Звезда". @anna_news

t.me

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vk.com

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vk.com

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vk.com

Z комитет + карта СВО

#Красноармейск #Покровск #Троянда Подразделения ВС РФ (в том числе ДРГ) проникают в центр Красноармейска и продолжают распространяться по нему. Устойчивая ЛБС все еще не сформирована, но противник лишился четкой линии обороны города. Карта "Z-комитет"

t.me

 

[vikingatespam]

First off, I apologize for the delay in a response, my time has been very limited.

Great job at not addressing the point.
So, any country that thinks/states/believes that there is "a realistic chance of a favorable outcome" can do whatever it wants; as long as it can actually do it. We agree, it happened before.
(Edit:
I was just reading... Is the "neutralization" of Kaliningrad a credible threat to you? The only relevant point is if it is credible to Russia.)
I think Redshift meant "lesson learned" when he used "whataboutism"; maybe he was trying to find another word in English, that one that starts with "hi".

At this point, I have little context to what you mean by not addressing the point, without previous material. If I remember correctly, the point was about the "Russian fear of NATO attacking" which I dismiss as irrational and completely unrealistic based upon actual capabilities and historical precedence.

As for Kaliningrad - "neutralizing Kaliningrad" is also unrealistic and not creditable, for reasons I already mentioned - what does taking Kaliningrad get NATO ? It has no effect on RU war making capability, it will bring the RU populace together against an external threat, and it requires a political will from NATO countries that simply does not, nor likely will ever exist.