For a second there I thought engaging with you was a good idea, thanks for disabusing me of that notion.
I'm always happy to debate. Please do return when you think you can handle an argument/opinion being challenged.
Clearly a world where the IDF is to be taken at face value, US intelligence leaks *pessimistic* versions of their assessments to the press, and where Israel only bombs the nuclear sites the IAEA knows about despite having perfect knowledge of everything is not the same world I live in.
I do not understand your argument here. Mind if I ask a few questions?
- Are you saying I recommended taking IDF claims at face value? If so, you could easily quote me on that.
- Are you saying the DIA preliminary report is not "pessimistic" despite the report literally referring to a "worst case" scenario and relying on preliminary findings only?
- Are you generally okay with making conclusions based on preliminary findings?
- What is the basis for the claim that the IDF only struck nuclear sites familiar to the IAEA?
Israel-Iran confrontation is mostly on pause. Let's go over it and events on other fronts:
IRAN
More info on Isfahan strike.
Translation:
1. The attacked site is an isolated UGF that contained most of the enriched material.
2. The American strike blocked both entrances.
3. The intent was to prevent Iranian transfer of material.
4. Since the strike, the area is under constant surveillance.
5. Earlier Israel struck a nearby above-ground uranium conversion (from gas to metal) facility.
6. Official familiar with the strike details: If they'll try to reach the stockpile, we'll see it. It'll give us new targets.
Trump warns of additional strikes if nuclear work resumes. This is likely related to attempts to extract the buried enriched uranium.
David Albright and his institute ISIS have conducted an early analysis of the strikes:
Considering the damage to Iran's three known enrichment facilities, the destruction of Iran's centrifuge manufacturing capabilities, its uranium conversion facility, uranium metal production plant, and other facilities involved in its nuclear weaponization process, reconstituting these capabilities will take significant time, investment, and energy to return to its previous state before the war or build nuclear weapons. Iran has likely lost close to 20,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow, creating a major bottleneck in any reconstitution effort. Moreover, there has been considerable damage to Iran’s ability to build the nuclear weapon itself.
Further, reposted by Albright. There seems to be a consensus about the DIA "worst case scenario" report being low confidence and very narrow in scope. But what's interesting is that Trumpy claimed that Israel assessed the situation from the ground.
If you remember, I mentioned several times before the strike on Fordow and even long before the war, that one of Israel's options for attacking UGFs is via ground teams. Depending on the type of personnel used, the mission and its risks could significantly vary. But attacking from the air and doing only BDA from the ground, appears to be a much lower risk option.
I'm not sure of the method. It could involve pre-installed reconnaissance equipment via a ground team before a strike, and relaying that information later.
Israel's significant ground element in Iran shown publicly on the first day of the war, is testament to this capability, even if the report is difficult to verify.
It's natural for assessments to vary at this early stage. I will personally refrain from making conclusions until a certain grace period. Perhaps a month from now.
What we can assess for now is the production capability of missiles, centrifuges, air defenses, various electronics and other industrial capabilities that could allow Iran to rearm. It will take a long time for Iran to restore its industrial capacity, while Israel continues rearming, as Kamala once said - unburdened by what has been.
Iran's conventional capabilities were no less important than its nuclear ones, and together they form the complete picture of the Iranian threat.
A Jordanian photographer managed to film Iranian missile barrages on Israel country-wide.
Of the 41 volleys launched at Israel, he captured 6. But it's estimated that about half of the missiles were fired in those 6.
Excluding SM-3 which were not observed, 82 missiles were counted, roughly evenly split between THAAD and Arrow.
This does not count lower tier systems like the David's Sling and Iron Dome (which surprisingly was recorded several times engaging MRBMs.
LEBANON
As of today, Hezbollah hasn't conducted even symbolic attacks. The ceasefire agreement holds.
Israel continues to strike Hezbollah targets as per agreement, which significantly harms Hezbollah's ability to reconstitute.
No major developments since the ceasefire.
GAZA
GHF is proving its success more and more, replacing corrupt middlemen and delivering food aid straight to the people, free of charge.
Hamas is increasingly panicking about it, claiming every day about mass civilian casualties in these events. The killings are reportedly conducted by the Hamas's Sahm police unit.
At first, they targeted local collaborators with the GHF program, but recently started killing simple Palestinians to deter from going to the GHF and to buy aid from Hamas and UNRWA instead.
In its June 19, 2025 editorial, the Palestinian Authority Al-Hayat Al-Jadida daily accused Hamas of murdering Gaza residents trying to get to the American food aid distribution centers established in the Gaza strip. According to the article, "death squads" from Hamas's Al-Sahm unit[1] hunt down...
www.memri.org
This morning, it was cleared for publication that 7 IDF soldiers were killed in an attack on a Puma CEV, based on a Centurion platform.
It is not yet known whether it was via RPG or a planted charge. Although heavily armored, it is still generations apart from the Namer CEV. It is not known whether the Namer would necessarily survive, but it could increase chances of survival. The deceased belong to the 605th combat engineering battalion, part of the 188th armor brigade.
The IDF has 2 more such battalions in active duty and many more in reserve. Despite introducing to service the first Namer CEV in 2016, the active units have still not fully switched. The 605th was to start receiving theirs in 2026.
This further illustrates how despite massive defense expenses, the IDF is struggling to modernize.
Puma CEV:
Namer CEV:
