Middle East Defence & Security

Either way, Iran has some big decisions to make. Who knows what the BDA is from these strikes. I was under the impression that Israel already pretty much destroyed the sites at Natanz & Isfahan. This could partly be a show, a dangerous one at that by Trump to make himself look good. It's anyone's guess how Iran will respond or what means they have to do so. One thing I worry about is terrorism and desperation.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Either way, Iran has some big decisions to make. Who knows what the BDA is from these strikes. I was under the impression that Israel already pretty much destroyed the sites at Natanz & Isfahan. This could partly be a show, a dangerous one at that by Trump to make himself look good. It's anyone's guess how Iran will respond or what means they have to do so. One thing I worry about is terrorism and desperation.
Maybe Iran did less damage than was thought. Or maybe Israel doesn't want to trade strikes with Iran for another month since interceptors are expensive and this way Iran faces the USA in addition.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
None of the examples you give are examples of regime change by bombing.
Syria was a result of the Syrian Civil War which effectively began in 2011.
Lebanon has Parliamentary elections, the last of which was in 2022.
The Houthi Regime was not removed by a bombing Campaign.
My understanding is there has never been a Regime change by a bombing Campaign.
TLDR:
Hezbollah was de facto ruler. Lebanon's central government became dominant power after bombing campaign.


NTLDR:
Lebanon had a facade of a democratically elected government, but it has been dysfunctional for years, while pre-war Hezbollah was the sovereign even when it was functional. Hezbollah had near total control over military affairs and the LAF was severely under-powered.
A bombing campaign later, the Lebanese government emerged out of a political crisis (created by Hezbollah parties), and is now gradually asserting sovereignty over southern Lebanon particularly and other areas as well.
This is effectively an exchange of power.

Syria was a 2 for 1. With Hezbollah out of the picture, via bombing, Assad's army presented no resistance and immediately died.


I think collective west pretty divided on issue with Israel, with Iran and basically how to handle potential war in Middle East. This is not the situation in 22 when Russia invade Ukraine where pretty much collective west united to support Ukraine.
The collective west is equally divided on Ukraine. It just manifests differently.

I think the ultimate aim is regime change. Whether it is as a direct result of this war or whether it happens later remains to be seen. It would not surprise me at all if we eventually find out that Israel received a lot of help from an Iranian Underground movement.
Israeli targeting choices still do not indicate practical work toward regime change. The US has so far only struck nuclear and/or military targets. It could change in the coming hours and days, but as of right now there is no practical evidence for a push for regime change, even if the US seems to prepare an alternative government in exile.
 
Last edited:

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Footage of longer range missiles struck whilr erected, shows Israel's aerial control expanding east.

We're practically already in this phase. Israel has already left Iran with only residual capabilities, and seems to have neutralized its MIC/DIB.
The cost is low relative to Iran's investment. But such campaign already in force in Lebanon, as well as the need to keep surveiling Syria, Iraq, and conduct ground presence and ops in Gaza and J&S, is already quite taxing. If the US does not actively assist, Israel may need to ask the US to help with financing this operation.
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
If one agrees that Iran's ambition was to develop nuclear weapons and one day use them against Israel, then it may be that Israel's future is secured for generations due to the attacks against Iran. It's all very well signing peace agreeements and giving your enemies what they want to secure a few years of peace, but if the price is your total destruction 10 years down the line it's not worth it.

At some point Iran is going to have to stop the attacks because it will simply run out of missiles and launchers. The only question is whether it has a face-saving way out.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If one agrees that Iran's ambition was to develop nuclear weapons and one day use them against Israel, then it may be that Israel's future is secured for generations due to the attacks against Iran. It's all very well signing peace agreeements and giving your enemies what they want to secure a few years of peace, but if the price is your total destruction 10 years down the line it's not worth it.

At some point Iran is going to have to stop the attacks because it will simply run out of missiles and launchers. The only question is whether it has a face-saving way out.
That's certainly not the only question. Other questions include how much damage they can do before that point, how well they can produce missiles or source them from foreign partners, what other means of striking Israel Iran may have. This is by no means an exhaustive list of things we don't yet know.
 

Perun

Member
The perpetrators are Isis headchoppers, who are supported by Israel:

Islamic State group behind deadly Damascus church attack, Syria's interior minister says

A suicide bomber who blew himself up at a church on the outskirts of Damascus on Sunday was a member of the Islamic State group, Syria's interior minister said. The attack killed at least 20 people and wounded 52 more, according to the nation's health ministry.

 

Preceptor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The perpetrators are Isis headchoppers, who are supported by Israel:
The linked article supports half of the claims in your statement, but is doesn't support the claim that ISIS are supported by Israel. Extraordinary claims require proof, particularly given the inflammatory nature of such a claim. Before posting anything additional in this thread or on this topic and related topics in the forum, proof must be provided that Israel supports ISIS. Failure to provide such proof or refusing to do so will indicate that one is not intending to participate in the forum, but rather to troll the forum and its members.

Proof/evidence from verifiable sources is required by 19:30 GMT 23 June 2025.
-Preceptor
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
That's certainly not the only question. Other questions include how much damage they can do before that point, how well they can produce missiles or source them from foreign partners, what other means of striking Israel Iran may have. This is by no means an exhaustive list of things we don't yet know.
How much damage:
24 Israelis have died so far. All within the first 48 hours.
According to Janes, Iraq fired ~200 ballistic missiles (roughly equivalent to first 24 hours on Israel) on Iranian cities, causing >2,000 deaths.
This demonstrates how a combination of air defenses, public shelters and mandated bomb proof areas in every building, and culture of adherence to safety instructions, can create an exceptionally resilient home front.
It is thus safe to conclude that most of the damage is behind us.
Everything else like buildings and other stuff is just material, which literally can just be bought.

Iran can probably import missiles that will allow them to trickle fire MRBMs on Israel on the same level as the Houthis, something we'd consider a victory.

Iran hasn't fired its cruise missiles yet. Only MRBMs and drones. I suspect these are reserved for another target.
It's very difficult to saturate Israeli air defenses with something as basic as a cruise missile or a drone.
They launch drones probably because it's cheap enough. But cruise missiles are more expensive, and will be better utilized against something with more limited defenses, like a ship, or a base. Or civilian targets related to local energy trade.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
How much damage:
24 Israelis have died so far. All within the first 48 hours.
According to Janes, Iraq fired ~200 ballistic missiles (roughly equivalent to first 24 hours on Israel) on Iranian cities, causing >2,000 deaths.
This demonstrates how a combination of air defenses, public shelters and mandated bomb proof areas in every building, and culture of adherence to safety instructions, can create an exceptionally resilient home front.
It is thus safe to conclude that most of the damage is behind us.
Everything else like buildings and other stuff is just material, which literally can just be bought.

Iran can probably import missiles that will allow them to trickle fire MRBMs on Israel on the same level as the Houthis, something we'd consider a victory.

Iran hasn't fired its cruise missiles yet. Only MRBMs and drones. I suspect these are reserved for another target.
It's very difficult to saturate Israeli air defenses with something as basic as a cruise missile or a drone.
They launch drones probably because it's cheap enough. But cruise missiles are more expensive, and will be better utilized against something with more limited defenses, like a ship, or a base. Or civilian targets related to local energy trade.
This assumes Israel's ability to expend interceptors until Iran runs out of missiles. It's not clear that this is the case. I think what you describe is the likeliest eventuality, but not the only possibility, and without access to a lot of insider information from both sides, you can't know for a fact that this will be the outcome.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
This assumes Israel's ability to expend interceptors until Iran runs out of missiles. It's not clear that this is the case. I think what you describe is the likeliest eventuality, but not the only possibility, and without access to a lot of insider information from both sides, you can't know for a fact that this will be the outcome.
Israel depletes Iranian missiles by both intercepting missiles and hunting TELs.
Most recent US aid to Israel included accelerated interceptor production, and Israeli companies are setting up facilities in locally and in the US regardless on top of that.
It is certainly possible that Israel will face a shortage of interceptors before the war ends in the coming days/weeks, but the trend points to Israel likely outpacing Iranian launch capabilities in the long run.

===============================

There is no evidence of the US conducting SEAD/DEAD in the vicinity of and flight path to and from Fordow, near the city of Qom.
There is however evidence of Israel achieving air superiority there days prior and even limited strikes on external parts of Fordow.
I do not recall a single instance within my lifetime, of the US relying on another partner to achieve air superiority for it. Usually the other way around.
This above all shows an exceptional level of trust.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Israel depletes Iranian missiles by both intercepting missiles and hunting TELs.
Most recent US aid to Israel included accelerated interceptor production, and Israeli companies are setting up facilities in locally and in the US regardless on top of that.
It is certainly possible that Israel will face a shortage of interceptors before the war ends in the coming days/weeks, but the trend points to Israel likely outpacing Iranian launch capabilities in the long run.
These are large and destructive missiles. All it takes is one unfortunate leak hitting a building full of people, and the casualties could double instantly.

There is no evidence of the US conducting SEAD/DEAD in the vicinity of and flight path to and from Fordow, near the city of Qom.
There is however evidence of Israel achieving air superiority there days prior and even limited strikes on external parts of Fordow.
I do not recall a single instance within my lifetime, of the US relying on another partner to achieve air superiority for it. Usually the other way around.
This above all shows an exceptional level of trust.
Perhaps. Or perhaps the US confirmed an absence of Iranian air defenses. None left there, nothing to SEAD/DEAD. We do have some evidence that Iran evacuated the facility.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Perhaps. Or perhaps the US confirmed an absence of Iranian air defenses. None left there, nothing to SEAD/DEAD. We do have some evidence that Iran evacuated the facility.
We have evidence of a fire at Fordow's air defense site

And strikes 4 days ago also on Fordow's external installations.
I do not know what this building is. Could be related to local air defense. Weird that there's a fire recorded recently but OSINTers claim AD site struck 4 days ago.


Regardless, Fordow (Qom) is north-western Iran. Before operation Midnight Hammer, Israel has already shifted to DEAD ops further south-east. Corroborated in both statements and strike footage.

IDF's Telegram channel reported as early as June 16th about air defenses struck between Qom and Tehran.

Evacuation footage seems to show dump trucks, but nothing related to air defense equipment.
Not that it paints the whole picture. Iran's air defenses include many long range radars and missiles, which could certainly threaten something like the B-2 from afar, much farther than on-site.

These are large and destructive missiles. All it takes is one unfortunate leak hitting a building full of people, and the casualties could double instantly.
Almost every building has a bomb shelter protected against ballistic missiles. We also have public shelters. And people who for any reason have no shelter in the vicinity, hide in the central floors of the stairwell. I've never seen a ballistic missile penetrate that far into a building.
Israelis also get an early warning several minutes before the air raid siren goes off, so there's plenty of time to take shelter in an orderly and calm manner.
The facts speak for themselves. Quite a few buildings took direct hits. No fatalities for days.
 
Last edited:

Perun

Member
The linked article supports half of the claims in your statement, but is doesn't support the claim that ISIS are supported by Israel. Extraordinary claims require proof, particularly given the inflammatory nature of such a claim. Before posting anything additional in this thread or on this topic and related topics in the forum, proof must be provided that Israel supports ISIS. Failure to provide such proof or refusing to do so will indicate that one is not intending to participate in the forum, but rather to troll the forum and its members.

Proof/evidence from verifiable sources is required by 19:30 GMT 23 June 2025.
-Preceptor
Hi to all.

My sources for this claim are Who Is Yasser Abu Shabab? | Gaza, Biography, Militia, Israel, Hamas, & Facts | Britannica and other online sources.
What's the problem? I didn't know there was censorship and restrictions on expressing opinions here.

Kind regards,

Christian
 
Top