Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

An Israeli drone shot down this morning over Iran.
It was revealed by Israel's public broadcaster KAN that 4 Israeli drones have been shot down in Iran so far:

• 2 by Iranian air defenses.
• 1 accidentally by the US.
• 1 by malfunction.

If previous evidence showed 4 drones downed, this indicates now that Iran is still very much struggling to deploy any air defense system in relevant areas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937023685736460500

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Increasing actions related to regime change.
Evin prison isn't a regular prison. It's for political rivalry and dissent.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937076074652876815

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937074078759706733

This however does not indicate any specific course of action on Israel's part.
Here are several possibilities I can think of, in order of decreasing likelihood:

1. Strikes on internal security targets to pressure Iran politically.
2. Make Iran more conducive for an uprising, should Iranians choose to accept it.
3. A coordinated regime change effort.