The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

If the western equipment cannot cross Dnipro, Ukraine will lose the left bank. Most of the equipment they are currently using is of western origin. Note that western equipment could not cross the Russian border either.

Chances that Russia would agree to something like this are about zero, in my opinion.

 

[Feanor]

If the western equipment cannot cross Dnipro, Ukraine will lose the left bank. Most of the equipment they are currently using is of western origin. Note that western equipment could not cross the Russian border either.

Chances that Russia would agree to something like this are about zero, in my opinion.

Western equipment not crossing the Dnepr likely means western equipment operated by western forces. I can't imagine anyone intends to ban Ukraine from operating Bradleys east of the Dnepr.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Yeah, that is why I am not sure how a rational person can see something like that being a reasonable proposal worth discussing.

About the same as Russians asking for the NATO borders return to before 1997.

 

[KipPotapych]

Interesting that it is the Ukrainians who are reporting an F-16 being downed by the Russian air defences (via Google translate):

According to Air Force sources, Ivanov's plane was probably shot down by a Russian missile.
"In total, the Russians fired three missiles at the plane. It was either a guided anti-aircraft missile from the S-400 ground complex or an air-to-air missile of the R-37," the interlocutor in the authorities said.

The circumstances are still being investigated.
However, the source excludes "friendly fire" in this situation.

According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ivanov died on Saturday, April 12. The location of the event and the circumstances are not officially reported. The only clarification of the Air Force was that it was a combat sortie.
"He died in battle, defending his native land from the occupiers... Today, F-16 pilots perform combat missions in various directions almost every day in incredibly difficult conditions, carrying out exterminating cover for aviation strike groups and striking enemy objects," the message says.

All the circumstances of the tragedy are established by an interdepartmental commission that has already begun its work.

Україна заявила про загибель пілота F-16 Павла Іванова - BBC News Україна

Детальні обставини трагедії досі невідомі, але це вже друга підтверджена втрата американського винищувача в Україні

www.bbc.com

Edit: Apparently checks out with the Russian and other missile/drone tracking reports from about 13 hours ago. Example:

 

[Fredled]

If the goal of Kellogg's map is to prevent direct potential contact with Russians, then it already failed. NATO troops are already in direct contact with the Russians on the eastern border of Finland, the three Baltic states and Poland, and around Kaliningrad. More over the border with Belarus also expose NATO troops to Russian troops.
Please someone teach him geography.

Second, the deployment of the Coalition forces is useless if they can't operate everywhere in Ukraine. As Ananda said, it's like telling Putin: You can invade there, we won't intervene. That's obviously not the goal of a peace deal.

Third: If the US is not participating, they should mind their own business.

I would be very surprised if Russia accepts this.

I would be very surprise if Russia accepts anything that can be possibly proposed to them. As Soloviov said on his show:

Let them give us back Berlin, then we can start negotiating.

Soloviov is only half ironical.

_________________

Here is the official annoucement for the F16 pilot.

 

[Feanor]

I would be very surprise if Russia accepts anything that can be possibly proposed to them. As Soloviov said on his show: Soloviov is only half ironical.

This isn't even remotely true. Russia has clear goals and would accept an offer that helps them accomplish those goals. Obviously neither Ukraine nor western countries, except maybe Trump's America, are willing to do that. But there is a way to negotiate. However it requires a recognition of current realities and in my opinion a tit for tat exchange strategy. The problem is that Ukraine's negotiating position is weak. All this talk about Ukraine negotiating from a position of strength comes from a tacit recognition of this reality. Negotiate now and what can Ukraine offer in exchange for any return of territories? A realistic peace deal now could involve the conflict ending along the current line of contact. Russia gives up on further territorial claims, Ukraine recognizes lost territories as officially Russian. But Zelensky has stated that this is a red line he won't cross. I'm of the opinion that for Russia, freezing the conflict is a red line they won't cross. They want a permanent peace and they're not going to relinquish all or even most of the territories they've captured. So... they're at an impasse. Zelensky can't recapture the lost lands but won't recognize them as Russian. Russia won't take a ceasefire or a truce because they lose their only leverage to force Ukraine to accept loss of territories. That leverage is continuing hostilities, loss of further territories, further death and destruction. This is why I think negotiations are failing. And I think Russia's messaging to Trump is that he needs to get Ukraine to accept loss of territory. If Trump can force that, we might see an end to this war. If he can't, maybe because Europe is willing to back Ukraine without America, then I suspect the war will continue until either direct involvement from western military forces brings it to the brink (or even into) a nuclear war, or until Ukraine suffers some sort of large scale collapse, and western forces move in to secure parts of Ukraine while Russia grabs others. Other factors are at play too, Russia might suffer some sort of internal instability, possibly the death of Putin. This could change their direction. Then again it might mean nothing. A larger war with China or some sort of global economic crisis could undermine Europe's ability to support Ukraine and could force the sides to negotiate. Zelensky could die, or be deposed, and a new Ukrainian leader comes in willing to recognize loss of territory in exchange for peace. But barring any force majeure events, I think things will go down one of the two paths I described above.

 

[Ananda]

Many in the west are hoping for Russian internal politic changes that will make them sign peace accord. However now even the pro Ukraine NYT are provide Ukraine opposition to give idea on their (Ukraine opposition) take bigger role on peace talks.

This shown even some in West that ussualy back Zelensky, are increasingly unhappy with him. Giving his opposition chances to 'rise' on usually his regime backers pro media in US, is significant change tone. Poroshenko is not what can be call pro Russia whatsoever, bur even he now talk on smoothing peace negotiations. For me this is shown how even 'Democrat' side in US are getting impatient with Zelensky.

 

[rsemmes]

Third: If the US is not participating, they should mind their own business.

Is US a participant is this war?

 

[Fredled]

@Feanor I mostly agree with what you wrote in your last post. Except that I don't believe that recognising lost territories as Russian would put an end to the invasion in eastern Europe. Even if we give him the 4 full oblasts in Ukraine. He has so many demands on top of the four oblasts that it's impossible to trust him or to think that he will stop after that. At the very least, Ukrainians don't believe it and don't trust a single word from him. Estonians don't believe it neither.

 

[Fredled]

Future German Chacelor Freidrich Mertz is ready to give Taurus missiles to Ukraine in coordination with allies (and if the latter agree). He also said openly that the Taurus could be used against the Kerch Bridge.

IMO, it's a strong warning to Putin that if he doesn't stop his war now, he may lose the Kerch Bridge, his crown jewel.
It also answers the question "what can Ukraine offer to Russia in a negotiated peace". And there could be other things that Ukraine could "offer" in a negotiation thanks to the Taurus.

The Taurus carries a 481-kilogram tandem MEPHISTO warhead, designed to breach hardened structures through a pre-charge followed by a main penetrator charge. This warhead features layer-counting and void-sensing technologies, enabling detonation at optimal points within buried or fortified targets. Its guidance system combines inertial navigation, GPS, terrain-referenced navigation, and a terminal infrared seeker, ensuring high-precision targeting even in GPS-denied environments.

link
Tandem MEPHISTO warhead! I'm always amazed by the names given to military devices...

 

[Fredled]

Is US a participant is this war?

As long as they don't have US army soldiers inside Ukraine, they are not. Providing weapons is not "participating" because Ukraine can choose not to use them. The same way, Iran is not participating despite providing Shaheds or China despite providing just anything else. North Korea however is participating.

But my point was not this. My point was that the US won't send any soldier to the Coalition of the Willing force deployed in Ukraine after the ceasefire. That's why it sounds strange that they comment on how and where this force should be deployed. Why are they telling others what to do?

 

[Fredled]

Many in the west are hoping for Russian internal politic changes that will make them sign peace accord. However now even the pro Ukraine NYT are provide Ukraine opposition to give idea on their (Ukraine opposition) take bigger role on peace talks.

This shown even some in West that ussualy back Zelensky, are increasingly unhappy with him. Giving his opposition chances to 'rise' on usually his regime backers pro media in US, is significant change tone. Poroshenko is not what can be call pro Russia whatsoever, bur even he now talk on smoothing peace negotiations. For me this is shown how even 'Democrat' side in US are getting impatient with Zelensky.

I don't think that hopes of a regime change in Russia are that high. Everybody would like it. Only wannabe experts in click bait YouTube videos talk about that. Not serious sources. It's been ten years that is was rumoured that Putin is terminally ill. If he dies, odds are high that somebody as bad or worse will rule Russia. If it's Medvediev, it will be worse. The guy has already said that he was ready to use nukes. Only ignorants would hope that Putin died, unless it's in a coup to reverse the catastrophic situation. A coup is unfortunately unlikely.

Hoping that the Ukrainian opposition or Poroshenko will be able to change the position of Ukraine in regard to negotiations is also wrong. The opposition has not shown clearly such desire, thought an opposition politician may have said that he will better in this regards. That's what a politician always say.
But, more importantly, neither the opposition nor the majority can enact a secession of territory, a secession of underground mineral resources or an interruption of the military defence operations against the invader without a vote in the parliament. It would probably require an absolute majority (not just 51%).

@Feanor Secession of territory would require a change in the constitution and this is not something that can be decided by one person or by a small group of persons. It's not something that can be promised in a negotiation because there is no guarantee that it will be voted by the parliament and accepted by all the legal bodies (Supreme Court or equivalent if any).

 

[rsemmes]

Why are they telling others what to do?

Then, "others" shouldn't tell Russia what to do.

 

[Ananda]

Hoping that the Ukrainian opposition or Poroshenko will be able to change the position of Ukraine in regard to negotiations is also wrong.

It is Poroshenko himself that state Opposition involvement will smoothed the peace talks if they are in the Government. Are you Poroshenko ? Unless Poroshenko talking otherwise then you can say the Opposition have no desire for smoother peace process under them. Right now your post on this again is only another your wishy wishy.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Sumy area.

Russia forces have pushed past Guevo and are approaching Gornal'. Inside Sumy Russian forces have entered Loknya, south of Basovka and have taken all of Zhuravka, as well as the area around it. In Belgorod region Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Demidovka and Popovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1144: Situation on Kursk front: During the last two days Russian Army took control over several positions west & northwest of Guevo towards the border with Ukraine, thus reaching the outskirts of Gornal. In addition, Russian forces managed to capture the northern part...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1142: Situation on Kursk front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army took full control over the locality of Zhurava (after one month of intense combats) & the adjacent positions at the border of Sumy oblast. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1140: Situation on Kursk front: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Guevo & began advancing towards the border in this axis. Meanwhile in Sumy during the last four days Russian forces advanced south of Basivka & entered in Loknya, where clashes with...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1140: Situation on Belgorod front: After two weeks of intense combats Russian Army managed to fully recapture the locality of Demidovka & expelled Ukrainian Army from Popovka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1139: Situation on Kursk front: During the last five days Russian Army managed to capture most of Guevo, forcing Ukrainian Army to withdraw towards the outskirts of the locality. Map: [...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Наши штурмовики подняли флаг России в центре Гуево в Курской области ▪️На видео штурмовики 22-го полка 72-й дивизии поднимают флаг России в центре Гуево. ▪️Теперь в Курской области оккупированными врагом остаются лишь 2 села — Горналь и Олешня, расположенные у самой границы с Украиной...

t.me

Russian UCAV strikes in the Kursk region border area. Reportedly this is the Orion-S at work.

Осведомитель

Красивые кадры работы БПЛА "Орион" в приграничных районах Сумской области. Обнаруженный в темное время суток танк ВСУ был уничтожен точным попаданием. Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ "Иноходец" сорвал попытку наступления врага в курском приграничье Оператор ударного беспилотника группировки "Север" обнаружил замаскированную бронетехнику противника и уничтожил ее точным попаданием. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian UCAV strike on a Ukrainian Stryker near Malaya Rybitsa, Sumy region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Поражение американского БТР М1126 Stryker ВСУ разведывательно-ударным БПЛА «Орион» у села Малая Рыбица Сумской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian UCAV strikes on Ukrainian MBTs in the Belgorod border area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Уничтожение двух украинских танков Т-72 и Т-64БВ разведывательно-ударным БПЛА «Орион» ВКС РФ в Сумской области. Большие дроны продолжают свободную охоту в небе приграничья, отстреливая украинскую бронетехнику. Осведомитель

t.me

Near Demidovka a Ukrainian M1 Abrams was destroyed. It's got a robust drone cage. A Ukrainian ARV attempted to pull it out but also got hit.

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vk.com

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Осведомитель

Еще видео уничтожения M1A1SA Abrams и БРЭМ ВСУ российскими FPV-дронами в направлении Демидовки Белгородской области. Противник решил убить последние из 11 оставшихся «Абрамсов» об российскую границу. Что интересно, на танке также можно увидеть белый треугольник - знак суджанской группировки...

t.me

Осведомитель

Обвешанный мусором и динамической защитой M1A1 Abrams ВСУ, брошенный близ границы с Белгородской областью. Ранее на этом участке не светился. Осведомитель

t.me

A Ukrainian M109 with a drone cage burns, Sumy region.

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Colonelcassad

Кадры со стороны противника. Горящая гаубица западного производства М109 с мангалом в результате удара FPV-дроном на Сумском направлении. @voenacher

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV in the Sumy area.

Colonelcassad

Кадры со стороны противника. Украинский Т-64БВ разорвало от потужности в Сумской области. @voenacher

t.me

A knocked out Marder captured by Russian forces in Kursk region. The condition of the vehicle is unclear.

Colonelcassad

Курская битва XXI века. Очередная немецкая бронемашина, уничтоженная в Суджанском приграничье В окрестностях, освобождённого вчера, н.п. Гуево Курской области бойцы 30 мсп ГВ "Север" осматривают очередной экземпляр трофейной техники. На кадрах небезызвестный БМП "Мардер" производства ФРГ...

t.me

Осведомитель

Трофейная немецкая БМП Marder 1A3 «Виктория» в окрестностях недавно освобожденного Гуево Курской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian forces observing a destroyed Abrams in Kursk region. Unclear if we've seen this one before.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Two disabled Ukrainian vehicles in Sumy region, an M113 in the lake, and a knocked Marder by the side of the road.

Colonelcassad

Брошенная немецкая БМП Marder 1A3 и утопленный БТР М113 ВСУ в Сумской области.

t.me

Russian Pantsyr fires in the Belgorod border area, allegedly on a Ukrainian UAV.

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vk.com

Осведомитель

Работа ЗРПК «Панцирь-С1» по БПЛА-камикадзе ВСУ в Курском приграничье. Осведомитель

t.me

We have confirmation a Ukrainian F-16 was downed in Sumy region, possibly by Russian air defenses, though other theories are being voiced. The pilot is KIA.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

F-16 на Украине был сбит в бою ракетами С-400, - лётчик ▪️По НАТОвскому истребителю было выпущено 3 зенитных ракеты, сообщил российский лётчик Воевода. ▪️Зеленский заявил, что "были доклады о боевой ситуации. Выясняем все обстоятельства". ▪️В сети также появилось фото погибшего пилота...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠Упавший F-16 был сбит украинской ПВО, — депутат Рады Безуглая ▪️Нардеп озвучила уже третью версию крушения истребителя. ▪️«Система «свой — чужой» до сих пор не отрегулирована», - заявила депутат Рады и напомнила, что до сих пор не опубликованы результаты расследования по катастрофе еще...

t.me

bmpd

❗️Сегодня утром был сбит украинский F-16, его 26-летний пилот Павел Иванов погиб, сообщают Воздушные силы Украины. Украинские источники пишут, что F-16 пытался увернуться от ракеты над Сумами, поэтому пока неизвестно был ли борт сбит российской ракетой, либо же произошел дружественный огонь...

t.me

Ukrainian cross-border strikes in Belgorod region hit a civilian truck and some houses.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Враг атакует Белгородскую область, сжигая машины и дома ▪️В.Гладков: Беспилотник ВСУ нанёс удар по грузовому автомобилю в посёлке Ракитное. От полученных ранений водитель скончался на месте. ▪️В результате падения обломков БПЛА в посёлке Майский разбито заднее стекло легкового автомобиля, в...

t.me

Russian D-20 operations in the border area, Akhmat volunteers.

Военный Осведомитель

Боевая работа расчёта 152-мм пушки-гаубицы Д-20 батальонной тактической группы «Каштана» спецназа «Ахмат» в Курском приграничье. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A Russian Sarmat-3 armored car seen in Sudzha. They were previously seen with VDV units in the area.

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vk.com

Kharkov area.

Russian forces have inched forward in Volchansk again.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1141: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last two weeks Russian Army made small advances in the northern part of the town of Vovchansk. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.28577434891605%2C36.92074078101871&z=13 ]

t.me

Aerial shots of the ruins of Volchansk.

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Kupyansk area.

Russian forces are continuing to bite off pieces on the left shore, but no major gains.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1145: Situation on northeastern front: During the last five days Russian Army increased the pressure at Kupiansk axis trying to outflank the locality of Stepova Novoselivka from the north and south. Map: [...

t.me

It appears Ukraine attempted a counter-attack near Kupyansk, unsuccessfully. We have 2 MRAPs that might be those Cougars we saw with Ukrainian SoF, one MRAP (Oshkosh M-ATV? MaxxPro? hard to tell at that angle). We also have what might be a Mader, and plenty of Ukrainian KIAs. The Russian source claims these were Ukrainian SoF. Warning footage of corpses.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Кровавый провал наступления у Купянска: армия России разгромила элитный спецназ ГУР ▪️Воины-гвардейцы группировки войск "Запад" отразили серию контратак спецназа ГУР с боевой техникой на Купянском направлении в Харьковской области. ▪️Сначала была сожжена бронетехника ВСУ, а затем полностью...

t.me

Oskol front.

Russian forces have recaptured Nadiya and taken a number of positions around the village, expanding the area of control beyond what it was before the counter-attack. In the Peschanoe salient area Russian forces have recaptured parts of Kolesnikovka. Across the river Russian forces have contested Kamyanka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1142: Situation on Luhansk front: Russian Army recaptured the locality of Nadiya & a series of positions southwest of Serhiivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.344906853433145%2C37.891194566421916&z=12 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1143: Situation on northeastern front: - At Dvorichna axis during the last six days Russian Army managed to take new positions in the southern part of Kamyanka and along the Oskil River. - At Kupiansk axis it was confirmed that in mid-March Russian forces managed to...

t.me

Across the Zherebets Russian forces are now flanking Novoe and Novomihailovka. The connection with Makeevka has also expanded. This area in general has been one of Russia's bigger gains. South of Yampolovka Russian forces have bit off another large chunk and reached Torskoe from the north.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1145: Situation north of Donetsk: During the last four days Russian Army took control over a series of positions southwest of Makiivka. In addition, Russian forces approached to the locality of Novomykhailivka from the south & continue developing the encirclement of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1141: Situation north of Donetsk front: Russian Army made new advances south of Nove in the direction of Zelena Dolyna. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.15891610104651%2C37.85011718423527&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1140: Situation north of Donetsk & Luhansk front: Russian Army continue advancing at the eastern & northern outskirts of Nove taking control over new trench systems in this direction. In addition, Russian forces made new advances north of Novolyubivka & southwest of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1139: Situation north of Donetsk: During the last 48 hours Russian Army made new advances east & north of Nove taking control over a series of fortifications. As a result the locality of Katerynivka was taken, while other advances were made east of this locality in the...

t.me

Russian drones hit a T-64BV. Next to it is a knocked out M113. This is inside Torskoe.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бои за Торское: Армия России красиво сожгла бронегруппу ВСУ НАТОвский БТР и танк с пехотой на броне уничтожены операторами БПЛА «Айгир». t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Seversk salient.

Russian forces have taken more country-side west and south-west of Belogorovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1140: Situation on Siversk front: Parallel to the operation to capture ‘white hill’ Russian Army managed to seize large amounts of ground to the west and south-west of Bilohorivka, reaching the border between the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts on this front and...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1139: Situation on Siversk front: Since mid-March Russian Army has been capturing the positions around the ‘white hill’ north of Verkhnokamyanske and is close to complete control over this strategic position. Map: [...

t.me

Russian bombs landing in Seversk.

Colonelcassad

Прилет четырех авиабомб ФАБ-250 с УМПК по позициям украинских формирований в Северске.

t.me

Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have taken a couple of areas north of the center of Chasov Yar. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have recaptured a position in the south of the town.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1143: Situation on Chasov Yar: During the last five days Russian Army managed to put pressure on the Ukrainian garrison in the central district from several axes and to seize several buildings (in the last hours building 3 City hospital was captured). On the other hand...

t.me

Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian 2S1 near Vasyutinskoe village, north of Chasov Yar, east of Kramatorsk.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение оптоволоконными FPV-дронами 122-мм САУ «Гвоздика» ВСУ с последующей детонацией боекомплекта в районе села Васютинское, расположенного юго-восточнее Краматорска. Кадры: @ogvmsbr_200Z Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Toretsk.

Russian forces have expanded their area north-east of Toretsk. They're not approaching Dachnoe. Interestingly enough Ukrainian forces are still inside northern Toretsk from the east while Russian forces have taken the northern extremes of Toretsk on the western side, and pushed beyond the town. And we have a small coutner-attack into nothern Toretsk from the west by Ukraine. Both of the central refuse mounds are under Russian control.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1146: Situation on Toretsk front: During the last 48 hpurs Ukrainian Army recaptured the industrial plant on the outskirts of the 12th district. On the other hand Russian Army took control over new trenches northwest of Ozarianivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1144: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army made new advances northwest of Druzhba. In addition, Russian forces increased the control around Krasnyye Kolodtsy settlement. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1143: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army made new advances northwest of Druzhba. In addition, Russian forces increased the attacks towards the positions of Ukrainian Army in Fomikha district. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1142: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army has secured in the last three days the 12th district of the city including the northern suburb of Komsomol and the adjacent repair base as well as the adjacent trenches. In addition, Russian forces recently launched a road...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1141: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army regained full control of the terrikons west of Zabalka district. In addition, Russian forces made new advances in the 12th district & reentered in Dzerzhinskugol industrial zone. In addition, it was confirmed that...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1140: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army advanced northwest of the Stadium taking control over a series of buildings. In addition, Russian reconnaissance groups began operations on the outskirts of Toretsk in the direction of the ‘Saint Matrona of Moscow’ mine...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1139: Situation on Toretsk front: During the last five days Russian Army managed to recapture most of Khimkolonka district & parts of 12th district. In addition, Russian forces crossed the water canal west of Ozarianivka from new side. Map: [...

t.me

Russian strikes on several Ukrainian M113s around Toretsk. Note the terrain, the refuse mound seen in one of the clips. It's unclear if this is another Ukrainian attempt to re-enter the town or if the footage is a few weeks old from previous Ukrainian attempts.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение пяти М113 ВСУ в Дзержинске В ходе успешных операций по защите Дзержинска, российские войска уничтожили пять бронетранспортеров М113 ВСУ, не давая противнику ни малейшего шанса на закрепление в населенном пункте. В операции участвовали подразделения 346 обрСпН, 381 сап, 174 орб и...

t.me

Destroyed Ukrainian logistics vehicles are piling up on the road northward to Konstantinovka. So far Russian drone control over the road isn't total. But if Russian forces keep it up, Ukraine may be forced back again.

Colonelcassad

Еще одна "дорога смерти" для украинских боевиков Результат работы русских дроноводов на трассе Константиновка - Дзержинск. @ChDambiev

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Avdeevka area.

Russian forces have taken Kalinovo, and a large number of fields between Kalinovo and Panteleymonovka. Panteleymonovka and Valentinovka are under Russian control.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1145: Situation on Grodovskaya & Ilyinovskaya front: Russian Army entered in Valentynivka & took control over 60% of the locality as well as some positions west of it. In addition, Russian forces took full control over Yelyzavetivka after weeks of battles. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1144: Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Kalynove & the southern trench systems as well as a series of positions east of H-20 in the direction of Panteleymonivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1143: Situation on Grodovskaya front: Russian Army's offensive is developing in the Ilyinovskaya hromada after controlling most of the village of Kalynove and the defences to the south-east. In addition, Russian forces took a number of positions southeast of Zelene...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1142: Situation on Grodovskaya: Russian Army continue developing the offensive in Kalynove & reached the first houses of the locality. In addition, Russian forces took control over the last positions northwest of Novobakhmutivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1141: Situation on Grodovskaya front: Over the past seven days, Russian Army managed to increase its control in the southern part of Tarasivka and regain the territory lost in early March. In addition, earlier this week Russian forces began a major assault on Kalynove...

t.me

Pokrovsk area.

On the eastern side of the Pokrovsk area Russian forces have taken Yelizavetovka and have reversed that last Ukrainian counter-attack near Zelenoe Pole. Russian forces have also taken most of Lisovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1145: Situation on Grodovskaya & Ilyinovskaya front: Russian Army entered in Valentynivka & took control over 60% of the locality as well as some positions west of it. In addition, Russian forces took full control over Yelyzavetivka after weeks of battles. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1141: Situation on Grodovskaya front: Over the past seven days, Russian Army managed to increase its control in the southern part of Tarasivka and regain the territory lost in early March. In addition, earlier this week Russian forces began a major assault on Kalynove...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1139: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took control over the central part of Lysivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.21400284365279%2C37.18562542615139&z=12 ]

t.me

Apparently a failed Ukrainian counter-attack in the Pokrovsk area. We have two Pbv-302s, a couple of armored cars (MRAPs?), and a vehicle I can't ID.

Осведомитель

Отражение украинской контратаки на Покровском направлении FPV-дронами. На многой технике изображен тактический знак в виде перекрестия стрелок, причем где-то этот знак в квадрате, а где-то - нет. Теперь уже ясно, что это обозначения новых украинских корпусов, в состав которых входят некоторые...

t.me

Russian strikes west of Pokrovsk, one hits a MaxxPro near Kotlino, the other possibly a Caesar howitzer in the eastern part of Dnepropetrovsk region.

Colonelcassad

1 Добивание американской international MaxxPro на которой всушников возили под н.п. Котлино. Работает группа Вани Иванова. 2. Поражение FPV-дроном "ВТ-40" колёсной САУ "Цезарь" 8x8 на территории Днепропетровской области. Работает группа Вани Иванова. @sudoplatov_official

t.me

Russian drones hit either one or two Ukrainian M109s. I can't tell if it's the same one, the video description claims it's two separate cannons.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Поражение двух 155-мм САУ M109A6 Paladin российскими FPV-дронами на Покровском направлении. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian UR-77 mineclearing operations, Pokrovsk area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian gliding bombs landing in Pokrovsk.

Colonelcassad

Прилет трех ФАБ с УМПК по зданию в Покровске попал в объектив пролетавшего мимо FPV-дрона. Видео: @sudoplatov_official

t.me

Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russian forces continue to push west across a wide front around the villages of Bogdanovka, Zaporozhye, and have entered Troitskoe.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1143: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army managed to take up new positions to the south and west of the town of Zaporizhia. In addition, Russian forces entered the eastern part of Troitske and advanced northwest of Preobrazhenka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1142: Situation on Pokrovsk front: During the last three days Russian Army made new advances south & southeast of Bohdanivka. In addition, Russian forces continue the assaults towards Ukrainian Army positions west of Lysivka & Kotlyne. Map: [...

t.me

Velikaya Novoselka area.

Russian forces have grabbed a chunk of fields north of Razliv, pushing towards Bogatyr. East of Shevchenko Russian forces have taken two fields, evening out their lines.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1143: Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: During the last five days Russian Army managed to take a number of positions beyond the first defensive line north of Rozdolne and in the direction of Bahatyr. In addition, Russian forces took new positions east and...

t.me

Russian strikes on Ukrainian vehicles in the area of Bogatyr'. We have what I think is a Kozak armored car, and an MBT that burns.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Наступление на Богатырь: наши жгут танки и бронемашины врага На Южно-Донецком направлении, поддерживая наступление на Богатырь, операторы FPV-дронов группировки «Восток» уничтожили очередные танк и бронеавтомобиль ВСУ. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces have pushed forward north-west of Lobkovoe, and in the fields south-east of Kamyanka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1141: Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last six days Russian Army captured a series of positions between Kamyanske & Lobkove as well as southwest of Stepove & northeast of Mali Shcherbaky. Map: [...

t.me

Dnepr front.

Russian drones hit a Ukrainian AMX-10RC, Kherson region.

Военный Осведомитель

Поражение FPV-дронами колёсного танка AMX-10RC ВСУ в Херсонской области. Кадры: @okspn и @Angryb1rdsss Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Allegedly Ukraine hit two ambulances in Novaya Kahovka.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Враг бьет дронами по мирным жителям Херсонской области ▪️Губернатор Сальдо: Сразу два автомобиля скорой помощи были повреждены сегодня утром в Новой Каховке. Разбиты лобовые и боковые стёкла. К счастью, никто не пострадал. ▪️В Раденске от обстрела загорелась хозпостройка. Спасатели не...

t.me

Strikes.

Russia hit Kiev, targets include the Antonov hangar, where possibly the An-196 drone is being produced. Links represent two different strikes.

Осведомитель

«Reuters» любезно публикует кадры налета БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2» прошедшей ночью на Киев. На кадрах также можно лицезреть попытки перехвата дронов украинскими расчётами ПВО, однако, судя по зареву на фоне, не все прошло так гладко, как хотелось бы этим самым расчетам. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Неудачная работа украинских зениток по "Гераням" прошедшей ночью в Киеве и результат прилетов по складским помещениям в Святошинском районе Киева. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Целью атаки БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2» стал аэродром Святошин в Киеве, а именно - крупнейший ангар завода Антонова. «Антонов» на данный момент производит украинские дроны-камикадзе «Лютий», являющихся основным средством поражения наших объектов инфраструктуры. Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бой над Киевом: Reuters показало ночной прорыв "Гераней" сквозь огонь ПВО в столице Украины ▪️Видна стрельба по дронам и масштабный дым после удара. ▪️Прилёт был по предприятию в Святошинском районе, ранее сообщали власти. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Киеве попадания "Гераней". Налет продолжается с вечера и затрагивает до 8 областей Украины.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Нанесён удар дронами-камикадзе «Герань-2» по Киеву. Украинские источники сообщают о пожаре в складских помещениях в Голосеевском районе города. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Ночные удароы ракет по Киеву. Пожары в Дарницком, Оболонском и Соломенском районах. Поражены производственные здания, склады

t.me

Russia hit a gathering of Ukrainian military personnel in Sumy, at a local state university. Reportedly it was an awards ceremony for the 117th TerDef Bde. Significant collateral damage is reported. We also have at least one pickup with a Ukrainian army tactical marking on it lending credence to the reports.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Мощнейший взрыв в центре Сум 24 марта не был вызван ракетным ударом — мэр Конотопа ▪️Семенихин продолжает топить губернатора гауляйтера Сумской области Артюха. ➖"Кстати, перед этим тоже была одна ситуация, где Артюх рассказывал о прилете ракеты якобы по городу Сумы. А на самом деле этот...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент прилета ракеты по Сумам и последствия на земле. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Место прилета в Сумах. Как сообщается, это конгресс-центр Сумского госуниверситета. Вероятно, целью могло быть собрание или конференция военных (об этом намекает присутствие армейских пикапов на месте удара, как и само место), однако, к сожалению, в радиусе поражения оказалось множество...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Два мощных взрыва в Сумах, в небо поднимается густой столб дыма Вражеские каналы сообщают о двух ударах баллистическими ракетами. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Удар в Сумах нанесен по скоплению военных, проводивших награждение — депутат Безуглая ➖"Обращение к Сырскому и отдельно к командующему ТРО: не собирайте военных на награждение, а тем более в гражданских местах, — снова россияне имели информацию о скоплении. И на полигонах до сих пор...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Мэр Конотопа подтвердил, что на месте удара по Сумам 117-я бригада теробороны отмечала свою годовщину ▪️Семенихин заявил, что открыто уголовное дело для установления организатора этого сбора. ▪️Он лично считает виновным губернатора Артюха, который "додумался проводить сборы военных" и...

t.me

Dambiev

Скопление автотранспорта боевиков киевского режима с характерными тактическими знаками, уничтоженное во время сегодняшнего ракетного удара по Сумам. Попали туда - куда надо.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Мощный прилет по Конгресс-Центру в Сумах. Накрыли какое-то сборище военных, у здания видны поврежденные внедорожники. Есть случайные пострадавшие среди гражданских. Ждем информации о том, кто был целью удара в Конгресс-Центре.

t.me

Other strikes in Sumy also occurred.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Новый взрыв в Сумах, враг сообщает об ударе "Герани" На месте прилета начался масштабный пожар. Украинские ресурсы сообщают о нахождении еще нескольких дронов в воздухе. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strikes in Kharkov.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

В Харькове утром продолжает гореть пораженное "Геранями" пром.предприятие.

t.me

Осведомитель

Харьков принял уже около двух десятков «Гераней». Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Массированный налет "Гераней" по целям в Харькове. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Начался традиционный вечерний налет "Гераней". Один из прилетов в "Харькове".

t.me

Russian Iskander strike in Dnepropetrovsk reportedly targeting the Biosphere factory, allegedly involved in drone production.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Прилет баллистической ракеты 9М723 от ОТРК «Искандер-М» по заводу сегодня в Днепропетровске. Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Мощный взрыв в Днепропетровске, в городе ревет воздушная тревога С места прилета поднимается густой столб черного дыма. Сообщается об ударе баллистической ракеты по объекту врага. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Момент удара по заводу в Днепропетровске ▪️Поражен завод "Биосфера". ▪️Предприятие горит, над ним столбы черного дыма. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strikes landing in Odessa.

Военный Осведомитель

Удары "Гераней" по Одессе и последствия. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Одессе множественные прилеты. "Типичная Одесса" сообщает о попадании по позиции мобильной ПВО.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия ночных ударов "Гераней" по Одессе. PS. Ночью над регионами РФ сбито 52 дрона противника.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️В ходе атаки Одессы поврежден объект инфраструктуры Поврежден объект инфраструктуры, также сгорели автомобили, заявили в ГСЧС. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian Gerber decoy in the sights of a Ukrainian interceptor drone.

Осведомитель

Российский БпЛА-обманка «Гербера» в объективе украинского FPV-перехватчика. Осведомитель

t.me

During a recent wave of Ukrainian strikes something helicopter-shaped was shot down in Naro-Fominsk, Moscow region. It may be a friendly fire incident, or it maybe a Ukrainian rotary drone.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Предположительно, в ходе очередного ночного налета украинских БПЛА-камикадзе, были задействованы дроны вертолетного типа. На кадрах попытка перехвата и непосредственно сам момент падения подобного дрона в районе Наро-Фоминска Московской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Сообщается о работе ПВО в Наро-Фоминске Московской области по некоему БПЛА, предположительно, вертолётного типа. Аппарат на кадрах благодаря контурным огням напоминает вертолёт, что вызывает вопросы. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры, как заявляется, падения сбитого БПЛА в Московской области. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukrainian strikes hit Kursk, the city. At least one multi-story apartment building was damaged. One civilian is reported dead.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг атакует Курск: гремят мощные взрывы, горит многоэтажка ▪️Около десятка взрывов прогремели над Курском. Один из БПЛА ударил по верхним этажам жилой многоэтажки. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Ночью БПЛА противника целенаправленно атаковали жилую инфраструктуру в Курске. Есть попадания по жилым домам. Как минимум 1 человек погиб, есть раненые. (по данным оперштаба - 9 человек). Большую часть дронов сбили на подлете или уже над городом. Всего за ночь ПВО ВС РФ сбили 115 дронов противника.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Продолжается массированная атака БПЛА на Курск и работа систем ПВО. Местные жители сообщают о порядка 30 прозвучавших взрывах. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Украинский БПЛА врезался в жилой дом в Курске. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Женщина погибла после ночных ударов врага по многоэтажным домам в Курске ▪️Нацисты нанесли массированный удар БПЛА по Курску. ▪️Погибла 85-летняя женщина. Девять человек ранены. ▪️Ночью над Курской областью сбито 109 БПЛА, сообщило Минобороны. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A new Russian UAV interceptor drone in service. It reportedly has a thermal camera.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Новый российский БПЛА-перехватчик, оснащённый тепловизионно-телевизионной ГСМ. Управление дроном осуществляется через выносной пульт, а сам пуск — со стационарной пусковой на два дрона, оснащенной биспектральным оптико-электронным модулем наведения. Однако, по имеющимся кадрам, также...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Отечественный дрон-перехватчик для поражения украинских разведывательных беспилотников и дронов типа "Баба Яга". Способен запускаться как со стационарной пусковой установки, так и с ручной ПУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Interesting bits.

We have our first confirmed destruction of DPRK sourced Koksan howitzers, sources disagree about whether this is Donetsk or Kursk region. We've seen these systems hit before, but this is definite destruction. Recently a train full of these was seen in Crimea.

Военный Осведомитель

Первая потеря северокорейской 170-мм САУ M1989 Koksan российской армии, как утверждается, в Курской области. Самоходку подловили FPV-дроны в момент транспортировки. Ранее ВСУ уже публиковали кадры нанесения ударов по "Коксанам" (1, 2, 3), однако тогда данные САУ отделывались лишь...

t.me

Осведомитель

В ДНР украинскими FPV-дронами была уничтожена северокорейская САУ M-1978 Koksan. На кадрах артиллерийскую установку буксовали, экипажа в ней не было. Ранее САУ производства КНДР фиксировались только на территории Курской области, однако теперь они, похоже, поехали осваивать новые горизонты...

t.me

An intersting shot of a Russian Tunguska firing, while covered by a drone picket. In other words, the SHORAD needs SHORAD to survive.

Военный Осведомитель

Пуск ЗУР 9М311-1М расчётом ЗРПК 2К22М1 «Тунгуска-М1» в зоне проведения СВО. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

More footage of Russian SHORAD pulled from old warships and apparently repurposed for drone defense on land. We have AK-630s, AK-230s, and 2M-3M.

Военный Осведомитель

Процесс перевозки корабельных зенитных установок АК-630, АК-230 и 2М-3, судя по всему, для последующей организации наземного ПВО от дронов. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Любопытные кадры прислал читатель. Перевозка АК-630, АК-230 и 2М-3 для наземной эрзац ПВО от дронов. Похоже, для осознания, что счетверенная установка АК-74 против дронов не очень удачная затея, понадобилось всего 2 года). Куда в РФ разбазарили другую зенитную артиллерию остается загадкой.

t.me

An interesting looking Russian 2S5. It has a robust drone cage, and extra armor kits that belong on a BMP. Russian production of these kits seems to be proceeding at a high volume allowing for them to be used beyond their initial intended purpose.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

152-мм САУ 2С5 «Гиацинт-С» ВС РФ с дополнительным комплектом бронирования и противодроновой защитой. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian Gibka-S spotted in the war zone. It's a rare piece of Russian SHORAD, basically wasn't in service pre-war.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

There are reports that on Feb 22 2025 a Ukrainian Sea King crashed in Nikolaev region. The crash was at low speed and at low altitude right after taking off. The helicopter is severely damaged but the crew survived, wounded.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Стало известно о вероятной потере в Николаевской области вертолёта WS-61 «Sea King», одного из трёх поставленных Великобританией. В материалах суда указывается, что после взлета, на высоте 5-7 метров, экипаж почувствовал существенную вибрацию машины, и началось вращение вертолёта вокруг своей...

t.me

Ukraine has started using German HF-1 drones in Ukraine.

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры применения ВСУ немецких дронов-камикадзе HF-1 (он же AQ 100 Bayonet). По своей сути дрон представляет собой аналог "Молнии-2" и имеет систему донаведения на цель, которая работает на последнем километре. Заявляется, что ВСУ получили уже 1050 таких дронов-камикадзе из 4000 заказанных...

t.me

Ukraine's 56th Motorized Bde doing anti-drone training with shotguns.

Военный Осведомитель

Обучение украинских солдат из 56-й отдельной мотопехотной бригады стрельбе по дронам из дробовиков. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukraine's 4th National Guard Bde with a Romanian M1981 howitzer.

bmpd

Недавно полученная румынская 152-мм буксируемая гаубица М-1981 на вооружении 4-й бригады оперативного назначения "Рубеж" Национальной гвардии Украины

t.me

Ukraine's 81st Airmobile Bde also received Strykers.

Военный Осведомитель

Американские БТР M1126 Stryker были замечены на вооружении 81-й отдельной аэромобильной бригады ВСУ. Это уже третья известная бригада десантно-штурмовых войск Украины, получившая на вооружении данные БТР. Две другие – это 80-я и 82-я отдельные десантно-штурмовые бригады, понесшие существенные...

t.me

A Japanese Morooka PC-065B tracked transporter has been spotted in Ukrainian service.

Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Reportedly US personnel are withdrawing from the logistical hub in Poland that supports Ukraine's war effort.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

США вывозят военное оборудование и персонал из логистического хаба помощи Украине в Ясенке, оставив координацию его работы на Польшу и НАТО ▪️Об этом заявило американское командование по Европе и Африке. Передислокация сил проводится для "оптимизации военных операций США". ▪️Войска США...

t.me

Reportedly the Czech republic has handed over all of their available T-72M1s to Ukraine.

Военный Осведомитель

Чехия поставила Украине последнюю партию танков Т-72М1 в конце марта – начале апреля, сообщает чешское издание Hospodářské Noviny. Официально на вооружении Чехии до начала войны числилось 86 танков данной модификации. По словам источников издания, на территории Чехии – в строю или на хранении...

t.me

 

[KipPotapych]

As long as they don't have US army soldiers inside Ukraine, they are not. Providing weapons is not "participating" because Ukraine can choose not to use them.

What about providing weapons and targets (including General Staff), correcting fire, etc? If China did that for the Russian forces, would they not be “participating”? If Russians provided the same “assistance” to the opposing forces in Iraq, Syria, etc, would the United States see that as kosher and not “participating”?

To further develop this idea, if the equipment provided to Ukraine was fully automated, not requiring a Ukrainian “to push the button”, would that change the degree of involvement?

Americans don’t have troops inside Yemen either. If it was only Reapers conducting strikes, would that mean that there is no “participation” of the Americans?

At the same time, there are “American troops” inside Ukraine, as was outlined in that NYT article from a couple of/few weeks ago. So what defines “participation”?

Why are they telling others what to do?

Well, I believe the most trivial answer is because Ukraine wants them to.


11 years and 5 days ago, Avakov (then acting and future Interior Minister of Ukraine) said that this will be resolved within 48 hours:

Ukrainian acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Wednesday that the separatist protests in Ukraine’s eastern region would be resolved within 48 hours – either through negotiations or the use of force.

https://www.cnn.com/2014/04/09/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html

Here we are over 11 years later…

PS Avakov is an interesting character. Those interested in Ukrainian politics in general and pre- and post-coup in particular would likely be interested in this read:

A pillar of the system? The political phenomenon of Arsen Avakov

The change of government in Ukraine in 2019 has boosted the political position of Arsen Avakov, the longest-serving interior minister in the history of independent Ukraine (he has been in five consecutive governments since February 2014). He was the only member of Volodymyr Hroysman’s cabinet to...

www.osw.waw.pl

With oil prices down, Russia is reducing costs (and risk exposure) by using “legit” means of sea transport, while increasing costs for others: cost of shipping the US oil to Europe went up by 50% in the past month, while shipping Colombian oil to Texas is 85% higher than a month ago. The article is behind a paywall:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/russian-oil-shipments-shift-to-western-tankers-amid-price-slump?embedded-checkout=true

This is also an interesting observation:

Shadow fleet owners’ purchases of older ships had already taken several hundred vessels out of the regular market worldwide, while rising exports of Kazakhstan’s CPC grade from the Black Sea have further boosted demand. Shipments soared to 1.7 million barrels a day in February and remained around that level last month. That increased the demand for tankers by about four ships each month. And with more of that crude heading on long voyages to Asia — 28% in February and March, compared with just 5% in December — those ships are tied up for longer.

I will let you make your own conclusions here.