The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

Seems like wired drones are self limiting. Probably not a long term viable option for operating drones.

I am not so sure about that, I am not reading about drones, but, right now, I could think of two options. Heavier drones, heavier wire, so longer range? A heavy wire-drone as launching platform high over the front-line so all the wire length of the second drone is on enemy territory?
I don't think they just sit and dream... They keep developing the existing weapons, they may not be cheap enough now, but they might be useful next year.

 

[swerve]

8% is also somewhere around the level Poland spends on its military, ...

No. It's expected to increase to 4.7% this year. It was 4.1% in 2024.

 

[Feanor]

Seems like wired drones are self limiting. Probably not a long term viable option for operating drones.

We certainly are in the middle of a real world experiment to find out. We've seen many technologically sophisticated methods of striking targets wear out their usefulness in this war, so I don't presume to argue that this one won't.

Meanwhile Russia's first Arena-M equipped tanks are now on the front lines. If they're prepared to deal with FPV drones, that will certainly adjust things. If they're not, deploying them is a sign of institutional incompetence. Assuming they at least intend them to work that way, we might get a good first had look at the interaction between an APS and a robust drone threat.

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainians deny Russian control of Toresk, make upbeat comments. But they expect a large mechanized assault against the city soon.

Ukrainian and U.S. officials began talks on Sunday on proposals to safeguard energy facilities and critical infrastructure
This is probably about the technical issues to implement the "Ceasefire on Energy Infrastructures" which has yet to take effect.

I feel that (Russian President Vladimir Putin) wants peace

No comment...

__________________________

Seems like wired drones are self limiting. Probably not a long term viable option for operating drones.

Yes: If they put a longer wire, then the weight increase and the battery range is reduced. For short range attacks, it's effective.

If your betting on a Russian economic collapse...

No, I'm not. The state of the economy has little effect on the capacity of a country to continue the war. In some cases, it even helps.
But continuing the war, itself, is very bad for the economy.

 

[KipPotapych]

Remember the Russian partisans’ raids into Belgorod region, all on their own behalf and no participation of other nationals and whatnot?

He has served in many of Ukraine’s fiercest battles, including the 2023 cross-border incursion into Russia’s Belgorod region, where he and three other Americans masqueraded as Russian resistance fighters attached to an anti-regime Belarusian Legion under the command of Ukraine’s military intelligence, HUR.

It’s interesting how all these little bits and pieces randomly pop out over time, mostly in interviews with the troops fighting the fight.

That bit is from the Times article basically interviewing the Americans fighting in Ukriane, in the Chosen Company, the 3rd assault brigade, aka Azov, etc (it’s behind a paywall):

US army veterans fight and die in the fields of Ukraine

American troops have spilt blood for western values in the war and feel betrayed by President Trump

www.thetimes.com

Other interesting tidbits from the article…

They take heavy casualties from time to time. This is an example from the Chosen Company:

The mission was a disaster for the company, which was forced to retreat with 90 per cent casualties, mostly wounded but two dead, Tango said. In the months that followed, he had to go through a long period of rehabilitation. Now he has returned to his unit, despite the dangers.

Apparently, all these Americans the Times interviewed support a temporary ceasefire to pause the fighting, while all being against Trump’s initiatives and feeling like being betrayed by the American administration. Who would have thought?

All of the Americans who spoke to The Times were keen for a ceasefire to pause the fighting, although none believed Russia would give up on its long-term ambitions to take over Ukraine. “Russia is not going to stop coming, they see Ukraine as theirs,” said Clutch. “Even if there is a ceasefire, it’s just going to be temporary.”


Regarding Kursk losses and successes. These are bits from the Wall Street Journal article (behind paywall, but I found a copy of the article posted by a Ukrainian outlet):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/keep-moving-to-survive-ukrainians-recount-perilous-retreat-from-russian-territory-feabc8ea

Early the next day, they set off again. The main road to the border was strewn with the smoldering corpses of Ukrainian soldiers and damaged equipment with dead servicemen inside, Dashak said.[…]

Other soldiers said they had discarded their body armor along the way to lighten their load.[…]

A combat medic who withdrew from Kursk two weeks ago said some men had been hospitalized with wounds to their feet after walking for more than 18 miles. Another medic stationed near the border said many had stepped on petal mines. “The sky is full of FPV drones so you don’t really pay attention to what’s under your feet,” said the medic. “Most lose their legs.”[…]

President Trump’s claim to have asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers surrounded by Russia left Mesnik speechless. Still, he said it would have been better to save the resources expended in Kursk to recapture Ukrainian territory.

“So many people died there,” said Mesnik. “To be fair, we did kill a lot of Russians too.”[…]

Analysts who study videos and satellite images from the battlefield put the ratio of equipment losses at about 1:1. That is unfavorable for Ukraine, as Russia is more readily able to replace equipment.[…]

Regarding the Russian pipe adventures:

The situation was already critical when Dashak’s unit heard that Russian forces had broken through Ukrainian lines by sneaking through a gas pipe on March 8. Ukraine’s army said it had thwarted the attempt, but Dashak and other soldiers said it triggered panic. Some field commanders told their men to withdraw before receiving orders from senior officers.

It appears to me that the pipe operation was quite successful for the Russians. From what I have seen since, the biggest confusion (not really a confusion, but a deliberate propaganda for the lemmings) comes from the fact that the Ukrainian media space posted the Russian claims that about 800 troops went into the pipeline and the Ukrainian claims that 100 came out and they allegedly killed most or all of them, showing some sparse shelling of a very limited number of troops and tree line(s) and reporting that 700 died during the travelling in the pipe (via suffocation and methane poisoning). The reports and evidence certainly suggest that it was not the case. Also, Russia’s population (or troops on the battlefield, at least) are about 15% resistant or immune to suffocation and methane poisoning.


In conclusion of the post, a short but good discussion with Mark Galeotti, touching on the ceasefire talks, situation in Russia, its economy, Putin, peace, etc. basically a few too many subjects for such a short discussion, but a great bullet point type of thing.

 

[rsemmes]

All of the Americans who spoke to The Times were keen for a ceasefire to pause the fighting, although none believed Russia would give up on its long-term ambitions to take over Ukraine. “Russia is not going to stop coming, they see Ukraine as theirs,” said Clutch. “Even if there is a ceasefire, it’s just going to be temporary.”

What I cannot understand is how they believe that. Russia sent a small force (Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, Afghanistan 1979) to invade a slimited part of Ukraine to get a puppet regime through a coup de main. After this war, after all this hate... Long-term what? Do they believe Russian statements only when those statements feed their narrative?

I guess they believe that every Russian statement was a nuclear threat and they believe that this, is a message.

Someone was using the Yom Kippur War, here, as an example. That ceasefire was not temporary because of the trust (and love) that always existed between Israel and Egypt.
I do believe that too.

 

[Fredled]

Operation Zombie:

It appears to me that the pipe operation was quite successful for the Russians. From what I have seen since, the biggest confusion (not really a confusion, but a deliberate propaganda for the lemmings) comes from the fact that the Ukrainian media space posted the Russian claims that about 800 troops went into the pipeline and the Ukrainian claims that 100 came out and they allegedly killed most or all of them, showing some sparse shelling of a very limited number of troops and tree line(s) and reporting that 700 died during the travelling in the pipe (via suffocation and methane poisoning).

To be true, we don't know much about it. The number of 800 troops came from a Russian milblogger. IMO, this number is pure fantaisy. There is no evidence that an important number of soldiers got in or got out of the pipe, alive or dead.

But we do know from Pro-Russian sources (I post the link a few days ago) that some soldiers died of suffocation and others were sick. I'm not surprised because it's very difficult to properly ventilate a pipeline. Some pockets of gas may stay inside and not be noticed immediately. We don't know how many died or went sick from gas intoxication.
Some Ukrainian sources claim that they (the Ukrainians) opened the tap inside Ukraine to let gas flow into the tube when Russians were inside. It's also possible, but we don't have any evidence and it could be fake (I forgot the link and the origine of the source).

We know, also from prro-Russian source among others, that Russians soldiers were shelled shortly after getting out of the pipe. We don't know how many died or were wounded by this shelling. We also don't know if the shelling started at the beginning, when the first soldiers emerged (Ukrainian source) or at the end when the last soldiers went out while all the contingent was aleardy in position and sowing panic (Russian sources). The two sources are conflicting.

We know that Russian soldiers stayed 2 days (some sources say 4 days but I have doubts) inside the pipleline before getting the order to attack. My opinion, shared with former Wehrmacht marine and milblogger Heinrich Torsten, is that after two days or more inside the pipe, with poor oxygen supply, toxic gas remaining, no day light, no room to stand up and no toilet, these soldiers were not in their best shape to mount an effective assault.

We don't know the material effect of this operation. We know that there was a psychological effect, and if this intervew is representative, it triggered panic and an early withdrawal of some Ukrainian troops (not all). We don't know the number of Ukrainian troops affected by the "panic" effect. It's possible that a commander hearing that Russians were in their back decided to retreat and that he was sort of surprised.

We don't know, until further information is provided, if these Russian Pipeline Zombie troopers had even clashed with Ukrainians or if they inflicted losses on them. We have no idea what they actually managed to do there.

 

[Feanor]

Minor update, I'll try to do a bigger one over the next couple of days. Despite the withdrawal from Sudzha, the fighting in the Kursk area continues. What initially looked like a small cross-border push, with disasterous results by Ukraine, near Grafovka and Demidovka of Belgorod region, has turned into a bigger offensive with Ukrainian forces now inside Demidovka. They're also pushing towards the nearby Popovka. Despite these being in Belgorod region, they're very close to the Sudzha area of Kursk region. Meanwhile Russian forces have entered Sumy region near Vladimirovka, and are expanding their area of control around the Noven'ko and Basovka villages. Inside Kursk region itself Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the northern part of Gogolevka but continue to hold Guevo, Oleshnya, and Gornal'. It doens't look like fighting in this area will wind down with the fall of Sudzha. Rather it seems Ukraine has repurposed their forces in the arear to launch another incursion into Russia, while Russia, as I suspected, is going to push into Sumy region. Civilians are being evacuated from both sides of the border. In theory, Sumy city is itself relatively close to the border, and if fighting approaches the city, people will leave in large numbers, and industry will have a hard time operating. However as it stands the fighting is in the border areas only, and Russia will have to make an effort on a much larger scale to credibly threaten it.

 

[Fredled]

Minor update, I'll try to do a bigger one over the next couple of days. Despite the withdrawal from Sudzha, the fighting in the Kursk area continues. What initially looked like a small cross-border push, with disasterous results by Ukraine, near Grafovka and Demidovka of Belgorod region, has turned into a bigger offensive with Ukrainian forces now inside Demidovka. ....

The medias are misleading when they say that Ukrainians made a new incursion in the Belgorod Oblast, suggesting that they opened a new front. In fact, they are at the extreme north-west of the Belgorod Oblast delimitation. It's clearly a repositioning in the context of the Battle for Sumy which started.
Sumy itself is not threatened for the moment. It's still far from the front line, unlike Pokrovsk. But it's under daily bombing with missiles and UAV. This already for a while I don't think that artillery can already hit the city, but it could hit the villages not far. That's why we could see a regular flow of people leaving the area.

 

[Feanor]

The medias are misleading when they say that Ukrainians made a new incursion in the Belgorod Oblast, suggesting that they opened a new front. In fact, they are at the extreme north-west of the Belgorod Oblast delimitation. It's clearly a repositioning in the context of the Battle for Sumy which started.
Sumy itself is not threatened for the moment. It's still far from the front line, unlike Pokrovsk. But it's under daily bombing with missiles and UAV. This already for a while I don't think that artillery can already hit the city, but it could hit the villages not far. That's why we could see a regular flow of people leaving the area.

It's geographically separated from the prior area where Ukraine went into Belgorod region, and from the former Sudzha salient. As I indicated, it is part of the larger fight around Sumy so that part is true. So far nothing decisive in either direction and one point of interest is that Ukraine has been maintaining counter-attacks at a high rate and across so many areas for so long. We haven't seen that kind of activity for a while. Obviously they're expending forces, there hasn't been some revolution in recruiting, so they're burning through the ~50 000 they moved from rear units to the front lines, but at what rate? I.e. how long can they keep going in this manner? It will be interesting to see. If there really is a peace deal coming, this could be a last major effort to minimize Russian gains before the peace deal. If there isn't, this could come back to haunt them in coming months.

 

[crest]

It's geographically separated from the prior area where Ukraine went into Belgorod region, and from the former Sudzha salient. As I indicated, it is part of the larger fight around Sumy so that part is true. So far nothing decisive in either direction and one point of interest is that Ukraine has been maintaining counter-attacks at a high rate and across so many areas for so long. We haven't seen that kind of activity for a while. Obviously they're expending forces, there hasn't been some revolution in recruiting, so they're burning through the ~50 000 they moved from rear units to the front lines, but at what rate? I.e. how long can they keep going in this manner? It will be interesting to see. If there really is a peace deal coming, this could be a last major effort to minimize Russian gains before the peace deal. If there isn't, this could come back to haunt them in coming months.

I agree with you that this is more then a minor roll of the dice for Ukrainian, tho I'm of the mind that it's a bad bet on there part. Russia has been both clear and consistent about the 4 oblasts. Even recently threating to take more if Ukraine doesn't agree to the 4.

With that in mind these attacks don't seem to make alot of Sense in essence Ukraine is betting that Russia will accept less then the 4 oblasts in question. Well that's possible one would. Have to ignore ignore basically most if not all of the signs Russia is giving that's it's perfectly fine with the war continuing untill it's demands are achieved.

One thing I think Ukraine should be doing right now if they don't intend to meet Russian demands is some large scale defence line improvements there are quite a few areas are thinly fortified with even less to fall back on in the event of a breakthrough. Don't get me wrong I don't think large scale maneuver warfare is going to come into play here, but deep pushes to cut off supply lines/creat cauldrons ect are a real possibility. In that context this use of limited manpower and equipment (not to mention the quality of both). Is surprising especially as gains have been limited at least as far as bringing these small gains to a peace conference in the hopes of getting major consesions

@Fredled

A bit more info on the pipeline operation well he doest have conclusive proof fos numbers there a quite a bit of footage to show how the pipeline operation was well planned and of a larger scale then you may think. With rest spots dug out bathrooms air vents ect. All of which suggest the intent for more then a small force

Relivent Ingo starts about 13 min in btw

 

[Feanor]

I agree with you that this is more then a minor roll of the dice for Ukrainian, tho I'm of the mind that it's a bad bet on there part. Russia has been both clear and consistent about the 4 oblasts. Even recently threating to take more if Ukraine doesn't agree to the 4.

With that in mind these attacks don't seem to make alot of Sense in essence Ukraine is betting that Russia will accept less then the 4 oblasts in question. Well that's possible one would. Have to ignore ignore basically most if not all of the signs Russia is giving that's it's perfectly fine with the war continuing untill it's demands are achieved.

One thing I think Ukraine should be doing right now if they don't intend to meet Russian demands is some large scale defence line improvements there are quite a few areas are thinly fortified with even less to fall back on in the event of a breakthrough. Don't get me wrong I don't think large scale maneuver warfare is going to come into play here, but deep pushes to cut off supply lines/creat cauldrons ect are a real possibility. In that context this use of limited manpower and equipment (not to mention the quality of both). Is surprising especially as gains have been limited at least as far as bringing these small gains to a peace conference in the hopes of getting major consesions

I think there is a real chance that Trump intends to twist arms hard enough to get a peace deal under something close to but not quite Russian terms with the current front line being in large part the ultimate line of separation. If that's true, and Ukraine knows that's where the train is headed, it might make sense to fight as hard as possible everywhere at once to limit any Russian advances. So the attack into Belgorod just south of Sudzha is not about trading territory but about making sure the Russian forces around there stay pinned down and don't relocate elsewhere for an unpleasant push somewhere else.

 

[crest]

I think there is a real chance that Trump intends to twist arms hard enough to get a peace deal under something close to but not quite Russian terms with the current front line being in large part the ultimate line of separation. If that's true, and Ukraine knows that's where the train is headed, it might make sense to fight as hard as possible everywhere at once to limit any Russian advances. So the attack into Belgorod just south of Sudzha is not about trading territory but about making sure the Russian forces around there stay pinned down and don't relocate elsewhere for an unpleasant push somewhere else.

I don't disagree with any of that. I just don't see it happing between the fact Russia has amended there laws to include the oblasts in question and there concerns over Ukraine legal ability to even sign a deal at this point. I think there definitely playing for more time on the battlefield. Nevermind they refused a cease fire. Everything they are doing is simply extending talks without anything substantial happening. At most we have some talks about the black sea coming up after the discussions over what energy targets will be acceptable. Well I do believe trump is trying to press Russia here I have yet to see it actually translate into anything meaningful. Even if everything currently planned goes quickly we're talking a few months with the result still as a active war.
Tho as I said before perhaps trump does indeed have "the cards" I'm just not sure what they are outside of pulling NATO from other countries I can't think of anything that is likely to tempt Russia way from its current stated goals here. Tho to be fair who knows what trump is actually offering, I'm just saying if it's not something we don't know about it's probably not enough, especially if as part of the bargain trump is expecting Russian cooperation in America countering china......going to have to be a mighty good hand he has if he's expecting that kind of outcome

Honestly if you were in Russia's position what would it take for you to hit the brakes here domestically I think a freeze of the line of combat would be seen as a loss and Putin doesn't strike me as a man who will accept that especially if a real victory is in reach.. I think it's important to consider the effect sunk costs have on both Ukrainian and Russian positions at this point in the war.....3 years of war and hundreds of thousands dead or wounded on each side have a effect on what a nation will accept to be honest I think this is in no small measure a issue of national pride in Russia support for the war is still high despite the cost because the average Russian wants victory. Something we who are not effected by it personally tend to overlook. Cards or no cards what a "victory" looks like matters and effects any deal made, this isn't exactly the Cuban missile crisis were a secret deal will be acceptable. I think the 4 oblasts are a hard line, the rest of Donbass in particular.

To put it in perspective for Russia to not gain at least all of Donbass (the oblast most in the news every day since before the full scale invasion). And no NATO no army in Ukraine would be like china taking half of Taiwan well they still had control of the Taiwan strait then stoping Simply unacceptable
Heck look at America after it's last few wars it now has very little appetite for more even if the overall nations interest might better served. There is a hard line against boots on the ground as seen in the war against Isis. Governments may start wars but they are also hostages of them to some extent aswell

Edited that last bit in as I think it's important

 

[Feanor]

I don't disagree with any of that. I just don't see it happing between the fact Russia has amended there laws to include the oblasts in question and there concerns over Ukraine legal ability to even sign a deal at this point. I think there definitely playing for more time on the battlefield. Nevermind they refused a cease fire. Everything they are doing is simply extending talks without anything substantial happening. At most we have some talks about the black sea coming up after the discussions over what energy targets will be acceptable. Well I do believe trump is trying to press Russia here I have yet to see it actually translate into anything meaningful. Even if everything currently planned goes quickly we're talking a few months with the result still as a active war.
Tho as I said before perhaps trump does indeed have "the cards" I'm just not sure what they are outside of pulling NATO from other countries I can't think of anything that is likely to tempt Russia way from its current stated goals here. Tho to be fair who knows what trump is actually offering, I'm just saying if it's not something we don't know about it's probably not enough, especially if as part of the bargain trump is expecting Russian cooperation in America countering china......going to have to be a mighty good hand he has if he's expecting that kind of outcome

Honestly if you were in Russia's position what would it take for you to hit the brakes here domestically I think a freeze of the line of combat would be seen as a loss and Putin doesn't strike me as a man who will accept that especially if a real victory is in reach.. I think it's important to consider the effect sunk costs have on both Ukrainian and Russian positions at this point in the war.....3 years of war and hundreds of thousands dead or wounded on each side have a effect on what a nation will accept. Something we who are not effected by it personally tend to overlook. Cards or no cards what a "victory" looks like matters and effects any deal made, this isn't exactly the Cuban missile crisis were a secret deal will be acceptable. I think the 4 oblasts are a hard line, the rest of Donbass in particular

How about a handover of the rest of Donetsk region, Russian withdrawal from all parts of Kharkov region, a full peace with a new state border along the line of contact and official US recognition of all Russian gains, with a plug pulled on all US sanctions, thus undermining EU sanctions pretty profoundly. It allows Putin to sell the thing as a victory, it avoid the completely unreasonable demands for the cross-Dnepr territories or Zaporozhye city, and it gives Russia a nice territorial boost in the process. Tied into this can be Russia providing a chunk of electricity from the ZNPP to Ukraine, and frozen Russian funds used as "reconstruction aid" for Ukraine. It would mean a bloodless gain of the Pokrovsk conurbation, and Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. It would mean an end to sanctions and a much needed economic boost. And Russia could say that the rest of Zaporozhye and Kherson region are something Russia aspires to but is willing to not go to war over currently for the sake of peace. The official position is a recognition of them as Ukrainian but for the domestic derzhavniki, it's not a case of never, it's a case of not now. It's just pure speculation, I don't know that this is what's in the works. But I think it's an example of something Putin could sell domestically as a victory. The territory swap could in principle be even smaller. Russia gets maybe Seversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk areas, but Slavyansk and Kramatorsk stay Ukrainian. It depends on how badly Trump wants peace, how much leverage he has to twist arms from either side, and where the lines for the sides ultimately are.

If Russia's position is all 4 regions no matter what, it's possible Trump intends to push for that and force Ukraine's hand. He could for example tell Ukraine that come Sept 1st (or whatever arbitrary date) the US is lifting sanctions on Russia. If Ukraine takes a deal before the deadline, the sanctions can be a bargaining chip. I.e. Ukraine will have a card to play in the negotiations. If Ukraine doesn't take a deal before then, they lose that card. Another card could be any further US military aid. Place a cut off date on that contingent on the deal going through. Deal goes through and some aid remains. Deal doesn't go through and the US could even block supplies of spare parts for the F-16 fleet.

Let me be clear, I'm simply trying to invent a context within which Ukraine's generous expenditure of forces in piles of local counter-attacks makes sense. If nothing remotely along these lines is in the works, then Ukraine could experience another partial collapse like last year after Avdeevka, but possibly on a bigger scale. And they saw already how that plays out. They must have some idea of how to avoid a repeat. If they had none, they would likely have husbanded their forces more carefully.

 

[crest]

How about a handover of the rest of Donetsk region, Russian withdrawal from all parts of Kharkov region, a full peace with a new state border along the line of contact and official US recognition of all Russian gains, with a plug pulled on all US sanctions, thus undermining EU sanctions pretty profoundly. It allows Putin to sell the thing as a victory, it avoid the completely unreasonable demands for the cross-Dnepr territories or Zaporozhye city, and it gives Russia a nice territorial boost in the process. Tied into this can be Russia providing a chunk of electricity from the ZNPP to Ukraine, and frozen Russian funds used as "reconstruction aid" for Ukraine. It would mean a bloodless gain of the Pokrovsk conurbation, and Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. It would mean an end to sanctions and a much needed economic boost. And Russia could say that the rest of Zaporozhye and Kherson region are something Russia aspires to but is willing to not go to war over currently for the sake of peace. The official position is a recognition of them as Ukrainian but for the domestic derzhavniki, it's not a case of never, it's a case of not now. It's just pure speculation, I don't know that this is what's in the works. But I think it's an example of something Putin could sell domestically as a victory. The territory swap could in principle be even smaller. Russia gets maybe Seversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk areas, but Slavyansk and Kramatorsk stay Ukrainian. It depends on how badly Trump wants peace, how much leverage he has to twist arms from either side, and where the lines for the sides ultimately are.

If Russia's position is all 4 regions no matter what, it's possible Trump intends to push for that and force Ukraine's hand. He could for example tell Ukraine that come Sept 1st (or whatever arbitrary date) the US is lifting sanctions on Russia. If Ukraine takes a deal before the deadline, the sanctions can be a bargaining chip. I.e. Ukraine will have a card to play in the negotiations. If Ukraine doesn't take a deal before then, they lose that card. Another card could be any further US military aid. Place a cut off date on that contingent on the deal going through. Deal goes through and some aid remains. Deal doesn't go through and the US could even block supplies of spare parts for the F-16 fleet.

Let me be clear, I'm simply trying to invent a context within which Ukraine's generous expenditure of forces in piles of local counter-attacks makes sense. If nothing remotely along these lines is in the works, then Ukraine could experience another partial collapse like last year after Avdeevka, but possibly on a bigger scale. And they saw already how that plays out. They must have some idea of how to avoid a repeat. If they had none, they would likely have husbanded their forces more carefully.

Possible tho definitely not anything less then all of donbass but really I do not think Russia will give up much land tho I can see them giving up the NPP strait up as they don't need it.

Problem is there isn't really a whisper of territory swaps,one would think there would be word of it both Ukraine and Russia would want to "prep" there citizens of such a possible outcome Ukraine in particular as there is a rather large faction that is hard line (those who aren't so hardline have been leaving the country obviously)
That and the legality issue I'm absolutely sure any agreement has to be ironclad and Ukraine as it stands need to change its laws to even sign a deal. Russia does to for that matter with the oblasts being legally Russian right now. Tho that is presumably easy to fix as part of a deal

And that's kinda my whole point about how it doesn't make sense. I honestly don't know if Ukraine is expecting us aid to increase, trump says Russia won't make peace after expecting unreasonable connections (that sound fair if you not looking at it from Russia's perspective). Or Russia is simply talking with no intention of compromise and to me that seems the most likely thing we see going on here. Frankly I still think Russia may be trolling trump here tho of course open to a deal if it's massively in there favour. To be honest the more trump talks about peace the more Russia has to gain. I suspect the US position is rapidly declining to "not embarrassing itself by achieving nothing". That said Ukraine also may choose to fight on for quite some time regardless of what trump wants them to do. I think even losing there is only so much they will accept unless actually forced to buy military means

Comply agree tho Ukraine militey moves don't make alot of Sense unless there is (and probably is) something we don't know. Tho I in general don't like just assuming what might be in the works I also don't like trying to force something that makes no sense into a line of reasoning. odd as it sounds the only nations actions here that look to make alot of Sense here are the Russians. perhaps it's just a case of trump and Ukraine trying to outfox what they cant fight (or in the case of the US are unwilling to pay the cost for).

And failing miserably at it, to the degree trump gets caught in his own trap by a far more experienced statesman. Not to say trump can't make deals just that perhaps he doesn't understand the level of importance this has for both Ukrainians and Russians this isn't a "business" deal for either of them. It's nationalism something ironically he should understand. At least thats what it looks like


On top of it all we have the e.u just egging the war on in a really half assed kind of way making any peace deal unfavorable for Ukraine actually harder for them to accept..

But for man who doesn't like conjecture I'm make alot of it. As to Ukraine military moves again I just don't get it your right it would be unreasonable to assume they don't have a plan or perhaps they did and it fell on it face. Kinda like Kursk.
The part about trump pushing Ukraine to basicly a unconditional surrender that may turn into the case but I don't think it is(was?) I mean why turn the resupply back on if that was the intent. I get it's to push for Russian consesions but what happens if as it looks they don't come? Like I said Ukraine does have a say in this and they don't look ready to roll over. im also quite sure the size of the army and equipment it's allowed to have is a definite Russian red lines, small and I'll equipped with little to no foreign support is what I'm guessing it will be. And obviously no none Russian approved peacekeepers.

 

[Feanor]

Possible tho definitely not anything less then all of donbass but really I do not think Russia will give up much land tho I can see them giving up the NPP strait up as they don't need it.

Problem is there isn't really a whisper of territory swaps,one would think there would be word of it both Ukraine and Russia would want to "prep" there citizens of such a possible outcome Ukraine in particular as there is a rather large faction that is hard line (those who aren't so hardline have been leaving the country obviously)
That and the legality issue I'm absolutely sure any agreement has to be ironclad and Ukraine as it stands need to change its laws to even sign a deal. Russia does to for that matter with the oblasts being legally Russian right now. Tho that is presumably easy to fix as part of a deal

The Russian-held part of Kharkov regions don't have any residents. They're basically dead villages that have had the war roll through them repeatedly. I'm sure some tiny quantity of civilians remain but they're not a substantial consideration. Russia also isn't claiming the territory of Kharkov region, so it should be simple to let go of it. It's a little more complex for places like Pokrovsk but Toretsk and Chasov Yar are not only empty, but the state of the town makes any reconstruction unlikely unless somehow the front line rolls very far beyond those areas.

And that's kinda my whole point about how it doesn't make sense. I honestly don't know if Ukraine is expecting us aid to increase, trump says Russia won't make peace after expecting unreasonable connections (that sound fair if you not looking at it from Russia's perspective). Or Russia is simply talking with no intention of compromise and to me that seems the most likely thing we see going on here. Frankly I still think Russia may be trolling trump here tho of course open to a deal if it's massively in there favour. To be honest the more trump talks about peace the more Russia has to gain. I suspect the US position is rapidly declining to "not embarrassing itself by achieving nothing". That said Ukraine also may choose to fight on for quite some time regardless of what trump wants them to do. I think even losing there is only so much they will accept unless actually forced to buy military means

There's a thought. It will be exciting, in a bad way, to see what happens when Ukraine really starts losing. Will EU countries go in?

Comply agree tho Ukraine militey moves don't make alot of Sense unless there is (and probably is) something we don't know. Tho I in general don't like just assuming what might be in the works I also don't like trying to force something that makes no sense into a line of reasoning. odd as it sounds the only nations actions here that look to make alot of Sense here are the Russians. perhaps it's just a case of trump and Ukraine trying to outfox what they cant fight (or in the case of the US are unwilling to pay the cost for).

And failing miserably at it, to the degree trump gets caught in his own trap by a far more experienced statesman. Not to say trump can't make deals just that perhaps he doesn't understand the level of importance this has for both Ukrainians and Russians this isn't a "business" deal for either of them. It's nationalism something ironically he should understand. At least thats what it looks like

If that's accurate this war doesn't have an end in sight.

On top of it all we have the e.u just egging the war on in a really half assed kind of way making any peace deal unfavorable for Ukraine actually harder for them to accept..

But for man who doesn't like conjecture I'm make alot of it. As to Ukraine military moves again I just don't get it your right it would be unreasonable to assume they don't have a plan or perhaps they did and it fell on it face. Kinda like Kursk.
The part about trump pushing Ukraine to basicly a unconditional surrender that may turn into the case but I don't think it is(was?) I mean why turn the resupply back on if that was the intent. I get it's to push for Russian consesions but what happens if as it looks they don't come? Like I said Ukraine does have a say in this and they don't look ready to roll over. im also quite sure the size of the army and equipment it's allowed to have is a definite Russian red lines, small and I'll equipped with little to no foreign support is what I'm guessing it will be. And obviously no none Russian approved peacekeepers.

Except it hasn't fallen on its face. Unlike Kursk these forces are being committed to existing battlefields. They're not being committed to some massive objective that's unlikely to be achieved. Instead they're using them for counter-attacks against areas of Russia's recent advance. They're not passively defending, rather they've turned the fight to a back and forth stalemate in several areas. Of course an expensive stalemate. The questions I have are, to what purpose are they doing this and for how long can they keep it up?

 

[crest]

The Russian-held part of Kharkov regions don't have any residents. They're basically dead villages that have had the war roll through them repeatedly. I'm sure some tiny quantity of civilians remain but they're not a substantial consideration. Russia also isn't claiming the territory of Kharkov region, so it should be simple to let go of it. It's a little more complex for places like Pokrovsk but Toretsk and Chasov Yar are not only empty, but the state of the town makes any reconstruction unlikely unless somehow the front line rolls very far beyond those areas.



There's a thought. It will be exciting, in a bad way, to see what happens when Ukraine really starts losing. Will EU countries go in?



If that's accurate this war doesn't have an end in sight.



Except it hasn't fallen on its face. Unlike Kursk these forces are being committed to existing battlefields. They're not being committed to some massive objective that's unlikely to be achieved. Instead they're using them for counter-attacks against areas of Russia's recent advance. They're not passively defending, rather they've turned the fight to a back and forth stalemate in several areas. Of course an expensive stalemate. The questions I have are, to what purpose are they doing this and for how long can they keep it up?

Agree with you on the karakove not so much chasive yar it may not be inhabitable but it's is a strategic are in and of itself. Even if Russia doesn't use it I don't see them allowing Ukraine to have it. Also has some economic value that may or may not be worth rebuilding. There is a reason it's been fought so hard for by both sides it just dominates the area around in terms of elevation.

I don't rule out but highly doubt the e.u will put troops on the ground without the Americans, with the Americans I think it's a fast yes on there part. A interesting question is u.s air support e.u troops. But I'm not sure the u.s will risk that I mean if Russia doesn't risk it's air force over Ukraine relatively decent air defence, does the u.s.a really want to challange Russian anti air full board? Not trying to overhyped Russian anti air here but there no way there isn't significant risk. also I don't know how that situation doesn't escalate to full out warfare so perhaps not a interesting question at all lol

I think the end of this war depends mostly on what Ukraine is willing to accept or when they will be willing to accept it to be more accurate. I also think Russia knows this and knew it early on hence there full acceptance of atritional warfare, not to mention how every attempt at a ceasefire has ended previously. I wouldn't be surprised if there attitude is to simply keep rolling untill they arrive at there destination.

I ment the same as you what purpose is it? Or did they have a objective and it didn't work out? To be fair there is a chance it's simply the Ukrainians aren't ready to consed the initiative or take a more defensive approach. There best forces are also the most hardline ones.
We could just be looking at dogged resistance because the u.a.f is far from as defeated as many assume it to be. I mean I hear about bad moral and other horrendous problems in the u.a.f all the time but in truth they never seem to be ready to quit. Mass desertions yes but mass surrenders? Nope and you think that you would see that if the former is true But you don't, I think there is a large and commited force of Ukrainians who are just not ready to quit this fight and untill that forces "back is broken" Ukraine will fight on.

But your right it does seem counterproductive and I to question how long they can keep it up or why they don't conserve there forces to a greater degree at this point. (They would be foolish to not have at least some form of active defence)
Perhaps the artillery advantage is just to much? Or the effect of drones on supply lines? The lack of a counter to fiberoptic could be putting them in a use it or lose it situation to some degree? Would be interesting to know the decision making behind these attacks.

Honestly the dogged determination of both army's in this was is remarkable. If I was the u.s or the u.e I would definitely be very hesitant to dip a toe in that water. There be monsters in there

 

[crest]

No. It's expected to increase to 4.7% this year. It was 4.1% in 2024.

there all kinds of numbers i took the highest one I heard for the sake of argument as I don't think anyone knows the real number to be honest from bonus payouts to debt forgiveness/tax breaks and subsidies and all kinds of other things war related expenses are to woven into the economy as a whole I think for anything but ballpark ranges. Your number is probably closer then 8% tho

 

[KipPotapych]

with a plug pulled on all US sanctions, thus undermining EU sanctions pretty profoundly

The thing is that a lot of it depends on Europe: UK - insurance; EU (Belgium) - banking. Two examples. These are the most meaningful sanctions and Europe can simply decline the proposal, if there was any.

 

[KipPotapych]

A research into the Russian losses from the Ukrainian strikes on the Russian energy:



There is a long thread on X:

https://x.com/legal0ve/status/1904612555345060299

And an article in Russian (Radio Freedom):

Вода камень точит. Урон от ударов ВСУ по энергетике и армии России

Радио Свобода совместно с украинским проектом Frontelligence Insight и группой волонтёров проанализировало более ста спутниковых снимков и выяснило, что ущерб от украинских ударов по российской энергетике за последние полгода составил как минимум 60 миллиардов рублей или 658 миллионов долларов...

www.svoboda.org

I didn’t read the article yet.

This is a joke, right? $0.9B? This is a laughable number and the effect is completely negligible in any universe. Don’t quote me on this, but it is probably under half a percent of the Russian oil revenue alone (only oil). Then, consider the timeframe. A little bit of perspective for those thinking that these Ukrainian strikes are of much significance and why Russia doesn’t particularly care if it stops or not. It’s good for the fireworks displays and epic videos released on the web, but that’s where the effects end. Basically, this is a proof, if the assessment is valid, that these strikes is a waste of time and resources. Perhaps, these resources and time cannot be translated into anything better though. Yeah, yeah, I know, the embarrassment to Putin and the like.


A little more on what causes personnel losses (they are talking about WIA, not KIA, to note). A little post on X came to my attention that cited the Russian Journal of War Medicine providing the following numbers:



I didn’t look up the article they are citing because I have no particular reason to doubt the citation, but can surely try to find it, if anyone is interested.


This is an interesting indication that all these negotiations are nothing more than pushing air by both sides (kind of clear to everyone, I would think):



Just to note, “both Russia and Ukraine” and “eluded those negotiating with Russia” is a very biased funny way to put it.


I have space to attach another image, so I will use it for (unrelated) humour, if that’s ok: