The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Ukrainians claim to have destroyed an Utyos-Tm radar.
It seems to them that it's significant. (I can't verify myself)

It's this thing;

РЛК «Утёс-Тм»

lemz.ru

I'm not sure this is even a military installation, though I suppose it might be.

Talking about Ukrinform, my favorite website ==> LOL , I thought it was a website opened recently. In fact it's a 107 years old institution.

Complete BS. The current Ukrinform borrows the name of the old one but it's not the same institution. The government structure of the 1917 Ukraine was very fluid, not consistent, government shifted multiple times, and all of it disappeared after the Soviets won in the Civil War.

 

[rsemmes]

Kalibrated insist with Piatijatki...

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

And someone else.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.54234043141562%2C35.47894797719251&z=12

 

[Feanor]

Kalibrated insist with Piatijatki...

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

And someone else.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.54234043141562%2C35.47894797719251&z=12

Yes, over the past ~3 days a Russian push north-west of the former Rabotino salient has developed. The goal is unclear, but speculating based on the previous unsuccessful attempts to break through Kamenskoe, they intend to flank that village from the east and eventually north-east, to advance north-ward along a relatively wide front west of Orekhov.

EDIT: The other part that seems to be developing is that Russia has just crossed the Oskol in two more spots. If we include the currently unconfirmed crossing in Sen'kovo, we're up to 5 footholds across the river, with 4 of them all in a relatively small area. The two crossing between Topoli and Figolevka around Krasnoe Pervoe almost bridge the gap. It's pretty clear the intent is to form a single front line, uniting the crossings, and with a route back to Russia across the state border.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

EDIT: The other part that seems to be developing is that Russia has just crossed the Oskol in two more spots. If we include the currently unconfirmed crossing in Sen'kovo, we're up to 5 footholds across the river, with 4 of them all in a relatively small area. The two crossing between Topoli and Figolevka around Krasnoe Pervoe almost bridge the gap. It's pretty clear the intent is to form a single front line, uniting the crossings, and with a route back to Russia across the state border.

It still puzzles me why Russia simply hasn't crossed from the border to link up with those footholds. Or even before the Oskol crossings... perhaps there is a good reason that eludes me.

 

[Feanor]

It still puzzles me why Russia simply hasn't crossed from the border to link up with those footholds. Or even before the Oskol crossings... perhaps there is a good reason that eludes me.

Ukraine has defenses on the border, presumably it's easier to attack across the river? Unclear. Technically Russia did attack into Topoli from both sides, across the border and across the river. But you're right, Russia has a preference for attacking across the river, instead of pushing in from the north.

 

[crest]

It still puzzles me why Russia simply hasn't crossed from the border to link up with those footholds. Or even before the Oskol crossings... perhaps there is a good reason that eludes me.

As fennor said it's not heavily but well defended, far as I know there alot of forest cover and some high ground along the riverbank,makes sense if you don't have a large enough attacking force to try and take any beneficial terrain you can (odd as that sounds about a river crossing!)

I would also assume drones are a large factor here getting to the treeline may be worth the risk of crossing a relatively narrow river. Or at least preferable to attacking along a expected and defended axis

There is also then question of Ukrainian manpower well they have indeed brought up some reinforcements to the region they may not have the manpower to spare in physically holding the river line. This many foothold strategy could be in part (or by chance likely) a effort to force them to spread out, or commit even more forces to the area. One that has been quiet for quite some time and really not all that valuable, tho if Russia makes significant inroads that could change.

 

[Bob53]

Pic of the day:

This pic was taken from a rare acknowledgement of withdrawal by the The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .
The map they are showing looks like other maps shared by independent sources. It's also rare when they show a map.

Ukrainians claim to have destroyed an Utyos-Tm radar.
It seems to them that it's significant. (I can't verify myself)

@Feanor
In Kryvyi Rih, more than 150 families whose apartments were damaged by the attack have received building materials.
Of course, it's not the multi billion dollars reconstruction of Mariupol, but they give something...

Talking about Ukrinform, my favorite website ==> LOL , I thought it was a website opened recently. In fact it's a 107 years old institution.
___________________
For counter battery strike you need precise artillery. Not the speciality of soviet systems. And you need advanced radars, which Russians have. But are they as good as western ones? (doubt)

From what I have read, the quality is very disparate. From the shells freshly produced by Rhein Metal to old shells acquired by the Czech Initiative at debilitating price from unknown producers.


Yes, it was. It was the most advanced Russian position in the direction of Odessa. Their only area of control west of the Dniepr. A real threat to the Ukrainian state.

The Russian retreat from Kherson is similar to the Ukrainian retreat from Soudzha. In the sens that the Ukrainians didn't really fought the Russians away. But the Russians decided to leave the Right Bank because it was too difficult to stay there under a more and more assertive Ukrainian resistance.

The big difference is that no external power put Russia under pressure to force them to give up Kherson in a matter of days. Whereas Ukrainians were clearly under pressure after Trump cut military aid and intelligence. The timing is too exact to be a coincidence and it's also perfectly logical. Putin always said that there will be no ceasefire as long as Uke troops were in Russia. And Trump wanted this hurdle gone.

Every time they talked about this topic, Ukrainian officials repeated and insisted that they didn't intent to hold Russian territories in the long term.

Of course, he can win this war. He just need enough weapons, ammunitions and a decent air force.
It won't take that much to inflict one more big blow to the Russian occupation force and liberate another large area. They can't because the West has never given the tools to do it. If Trump wanted, he could give Ukraine what it needs to defeat the Russians, at least on a big portion of the front. Biden didn't want. Sholtz didn't want. If the new administrations want, there is potential.
Recently, I posted:
The U.S. will resume shipments to Ukraine of long-range bombs known as Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), after they were upgraded to better counter Russian jamming. (Reuters)
If the US gives them in sufficient numbers (not just 40 pieces) and German finally give some Taurus, it opens more possibilities. At the same time, the Ukrainian air force is expanding. Slowly, but each new F16 or Mirage is an important input. Ukrainians are also proving that their announcements on domestic production of long range drone and mini cruise missiles were no BS. We never saw so many deep strikes on Russia as now.

Of course liberate all of Ukraine totally is not realistic, but this is not the definition of victory. A second large Russian withdrawal would. Even keeping the border along the current front line would be victory. A smaller one, but a victory nonetheless. Because Putin's hordes would have been stopped.

When the Austrians and the Poles stopped the Mongols, it was not a defeat because the Mongols managed to conquer up to the Gates of Vienna, but it was a victory because they were stopped. This is the same situation in Ukraine. That's why I often call the Russian army "Russo-Mongols". (Also because many of their soldiers are asiates.)

Hmmmm… didn’t the Mongols turn around because Great Khan … Ögedei Khan… died so they returned to the East As death of the Khan triggered a leadership council.

 

[rsemmes]

...el presidente de Ucrania, Volodimir Zelenski, ha establecido este fin de semana sus particulares líneas rojas en esta negociación. El primero puede ser clave: no ceder territorio adicional a Moscú. Es decir, el presidente ucraniano sí admitiría en una negociación perder las zonas que ya ocupa Rusia de facto, aunque no los reconocería como rusos, sino que renunciaría por escrito a recuperarlos mediante la fuerza.

Zelenski marca tres condiciones inamovibles ante la llamada por el "teléfono rojo" de Putin y Trump

El llamado «teléfono rojo», una simplificación de la Guerra Fría para referirse a un complejo sistema de comunicación directa y segura entre el Kremlin y la Casa...

www.elmundo.es

"..not to give additional territory"

This one seems to be from the horse's mouth:
Ukraine has four key terms that must be upheld in order for the full-scale war to end, sources said. These are:

• No further territory ceded to Russia, including territory in the partially-occupied regions of Ukraine
• The return of thousands of Ukrainian children illegally deported to Russia
• The return of thousands of civilians illegally detained by Russia
• International security guarantees in the event Moscow breaks the terms of any future ceasefire

No more lost territory, return of deported children — Kyiv names red lines for peace deal, Independent reports

"It is not reasonable to demand that, for example, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson be fully handed over — that sounds like a f*** off to us," a high-level Ukrainian official said.

kyivindependent.com

It is over, Zelenski accepts (at last) that he has lost. I have to wonder what he thinks, now, about Turkey, he lost a lot less then. Boris can always say it was NATO's fault.

 

[crest]

The last 3 min or so is relivent to mypost

Again a more Russian source but apparently Ukraine is is trying another push into belragod region. Doesn't appear to be that large just one mech bttln but it's also breaking news so could be more. Honestly I don't understand this move seems to me theyare in need of reinforcements in a few important fronts as it is. Why in the world would you want to start a new one. Especially one running into prepared defences for low value positions

 

[Feanor]

...el presidente de Ucrania, Volodimir Zelenski, ha establecido este fin de semana sus particulares líneas rojas en esta negociación. El primero puede ser clave: no ceder territorio adicional a Moscú. Es decir, el presidente ucraniano sí admitiría en una negociación perder las zonas que ya ocupa Rusia de facto, aunque no los reconocería como rusos, sino que renunciaría por escrito a recuperarlos mediante la fuerza.

Zelenski marca tres condiciones inamovibles ante la llamada por el "teléfono rojo" de Putin y Trump

El llamado «teléfono rojo», una simplificación de la Guerra Fría para referirse a un complejo sistema de comunicación directa y segura entre el Kremlin y la Casa...

www.elmundo.es

"..not to give additional territory"

This one seems to be from the horse's mouth:
Ukraine has four key terms that must be upheld in order for the full-scale war to end, sources said. These are:

• No further territory ceded to Russia, including territory in the partially-occupied regions of Ukraine
• The return of thousands of Ukrainian children illegally deported to Russia
• The return of thousands of civilians illegally detained by Russia
• International security guarantees in the event Moscow breaks the terms of any future ceasefire

No more lost territory, return of deported children — Kyiv names red lines for peace deal, Independent reports

"It is not reasonable to demand that, for example, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson be fully handed over — that sounds like a f*** off to us," a high-level Ukrainian official said.

kyivindependent.com

It is over, Zelenski accepts (at last) that he has lost. I have to wonder what he thinks, now, about Turkey, he lost a lot less then. Boris can always say it was NATO's fault.

I don't think this is going to work though. Note that Zelensky recently said that recognizing any territories as Russian is a red line. In other words, he's talking about freezing the conflict, not a lasting peace. I don't see Russia accepting a deal under the full list of terms mentioned in this article. Now the four that you outline, I think could be the basis for a compromise peace, one that neither side will be particularly happy about (so a true compromise) but I think Russia will demand recognition of a new state border along some sort of line, rather than a cessation of hostilities with a ceasefire or armistice in place along a line of contact. Given the recent discussions in the west, it seems very likely that as soon as the fighting stops, even for a little bit, there will be a foreign military presence inserted into Ukraine by a number of European countries. If there is no lasting peace in place, it becomes tempting for Ukraine to restart hostilities at a convenient time to recapture lost territory, with the cover of a foreign military presence as a guarantee against any catastrophic defeat. It would be rather unwise for Russia to ignore this possibility, and all of their statements suggest that they aren't ignoring it.

 

[Fredled]

Trump - Putin Phone Call Sky News video
Putin agreed that Ukraine stops striking Russian energy infrastructures. He also agreed not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but that's less relevant because Ukraine doesn't depend on oil&gas exports to finance their war.

It also implies that Russia will still target non-energy related targets all over Ukraine with all types of long range missiles. Whereas it will prohibit Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia because apart from the oil industry and oil depots, there isn't much to strike in Russia. Ukrainians can still try to strike air bases, but that's not very effective.

There is also the problem of the definition of an energy infrastructure.

IMO, this type of arrangement is not realistic. You say that you won't strike some types of target while striking others. You can strike a military hospital and it's ok because it's not "energy infrastructure". Or you strike a military fuel truck, and it's not ok because it's energy related. It doesn't make sens.

At the same time Putin demanded that weapon deliveries to Ukraine stopped. It seems that he talked about US weapons. It's not clear if it should apply to all weapons and that Putin forgot that Europe provide 45% of all western military aid...

It's a proposal which can be agreed upon... if it's reciprocal: Russia won't sent any weapon or ammunition to their troops in Ukraine neither. I think it's fair.
Of course, as Putin thinks only about weapons for the defence of the Ukrainian territory against him, this is not a peace proposal.

Putin's offer for Energy Sector truce is too fragmented to be serious. It only shows that deep strikes on Russian oil facilities started to bite.

If Ukrainians agree to play ball, they were right to throw all the could to strike Russian oil facilities in the last days until whatever truce emerges in any shape or form. It's possible that they agree because they don't have many long range drone left. They could also divert their missile and drone ressources to bomb Russian military logistic or to something closer to the front.
_____________________

Again a more Russian source but apparently Ukraine is is trying another push into belragod region. Doesn't appear to be that large just one mech bttln but it's also breaking news so could be more. Honestly I don't understand this move seems to me they are in need of reinforcements in a few important fronts as it is. Why in the world would you want to start a new one. Especially one running into prepared defences for low value positions

It seems to me to be a small scale diversion attempt.
A larger incursion is making sens if Ukrainians can afford to do it depending of the forces that they still have in reserve in the region and how many they need to keep up north to prevent a Russian advance in the Sumy Region. With the rapid withdrawal of their army from the Kursk Oblast, one can imagine that they are able to redeploy their forces in another configuration.

Politically, however, it wouldn't make sens since the withdrawal from Kursk was helping restore US military aid. re-invading somewhere else may not please Donald Trump. That's why I think it will be very limited.

You forgot to mention "troops". He needs, so he doesn't have, so he, cannot win the war.

The number of troops is important but not the most important.
With enough long range and mid range missiles and gliding bombs they can demolish Russian defence lines. Then making a counter offensive without losing too many men. If Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire now, that could happen.

I don't think this is going to work though. Note that Zelensky recently said that recognizing any territories as Russian is a red line. In other words, he's talking about freezing the conflict, not a lasting peace. I don't see Russia accepting a deal under the full list of terms mentioned in this article. Now the four that you outline, I think could be the basis for a compromise peace, one that neither side will be particularly happy about (so a true compromise) but I think Russia will demand recognition of a new state border along some sort of line

The big problem with recognition of Russian territories is that it makes the use of force a valid way to acquire land. That would be a very dangerous precedent for world stability. Even in Syria and Iraq, they didn't dare to do that.
That's why I think that this Zelensky's red line will get the support of many western countries. And maybe from China too.

IMO, Trump should say that if parts of Ukraine is recognised as Russian land, then Taiwan will be recognised as a fully independent country. Then Xi will ask Putin to drop this demand.

More realistically, I think that Putin doesn't care much about international recognition as the change in the Russian Constitution to include the 4 Ukrainian Oblasts is enough to make it legitimate.

I think he can agree to drop the demand for territories not yet under his control. But the peace talk expectation is that he would leave some territories that he already controls, instead.

Putin will never accept any security guarantees. He made it abundantly clear already.
So there is no peace deal possible anyway, in my view.

The idea of a ceasefire is only a tool for Donald Trump to judge who is honest about peace and who is not. The one who keeps on firing is not the serious one.

Given the recent discussions in the west, it seems very likely that as soon as the fighting stops, even for a little bit, there will be a foreign military presence inserted into Ukraine by a number of European countries. If there is no lasting peace in place, it becomes tempting for Ukraine to restart hostilities at a convenient time to recapture lost territory, with the cover of a foreign military presence as a guarantee against any catastrophic defeat. It would be rather unwise for Russia to ignore this possibility, and all of their statements suggest that they aren't ignoring it.

Problem is that Russian Official's statements remain statements, not fact.
So far Putin hasn't agree to a ceasefire except the ridiculous proposal mentioned above.
I don't think that they realise what they are risking by continuing the war. They are not considering European forces as a valid threat. They think that all European soldiers are degenerate transgenders or something.

 

[rsemmes]

I don't think this is going to work though. @Feanor

In Spanish...
"...el presidente ucraniano sí admitiría en una negociación perder las zonas que ya ocupa Rusia de facto, aunque no los reconocería como rusos, sino que renunciaría por escrito a recuperarlos mediante la fuerza."
Zelenski would negotiate accepting the loss of territory and offering, in writing, not to retake it by force; but not as "Russia".

First, kievindependent is not saying that, but it is a position to start negotiating. Then, does Putin trust that guarantee in writing from Zelenski? Will (if) "those troops" intervene to stop Ukraine doing that?
kievindependent is using the word 'peace', "a long-lasting peace, not a short ceasefire." 'Short' could be tricky, to say the least; those 30 days or one year to rearm and train 20 brigades more?

They are fighting with words now, I see all that just as the possibility of starting peace negotiations. The details, what is going to happen with those 30 days and what will happen during those 30 days...
Well, it still has to be... negotiated.

 

[Feanor]

Trump - Putin Phone Call Sky News video
Putin agreed that Ukraine stops striking Russian energy infrastructures. He also agreed not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but that's less relevant because Ukraine doesn't depend on oil&gas exports to finance their war.

It also implies that Russia will still target non-energy related targets all over Ukraine with all types of long range missiles. Whereas it will prohibit Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia because apart from the oil industry and oil depots, there isn't much to strike in Russia. Ukrainians can still try to strike air bases, but that's not very effective.

There is also the problem of the definition of an energy infrastructure.

IMO, this type of arrangement is not realistic. You say that you won't strike some types of target while striking others. You can strike a military hospital and it's ok because it's not "energy infrastructure". Or you strike a military fuel truck, and it's not ok because it's energy related. It doesn't make sens.

It makes complete sense. Russia will stop it's systematic campaign against Ukrainian power plants, powergrid substations, gas facilities, and fuel storage facilities. But a military fuel truck, especially one operating near the front line, is completely fair game. It's not energy related in the sense of what's being discussed here. You're splitting hairs in a counter-intuitive manner. Otherwise following your logic Ukraine would banned from firing at Russian vehicles' fuel tanks, since those are energy related. It's a fairly straightforward discussion, though I also have doubts it will be implemented because just as you say, it would also help Russia. And Russia is in this for the long haul.

At the same time Putin demanded that weapon deliveries to Ukraine stopped. It seems that he talked about US weapons. It's not clear if it should apply to all weapons and that Putin forgot that Europe provide 45% of all western military aid...

It's a proposal which can be agreed upon... if it's reciprocal: Russia won't sent any weapon or ammunition to their troops in Ukraine neither. I think it's fair.
Of course, as Putin thinks only about weapons for the defence of the Ukrainian territory against him, this is not a peace proposal.

It's not a peace proposal at all. He's talking about the 30 day ceasefire. I.e. he is pointing out that Ukraine is on the defensive in general, and is slowly losing ground, and it's forces are not in great shape. A 30 day ceasefire if followed by a resumption of hostilities with no agreements reached would help Ukraine far more than Russia. So he wants guarantees that Ukraine will not only not get more weapons during the ceasefire (weapons that could be delivered openly since no Russian strikes to hit warehouses) and Ukraine will halt their mobilization efforts during the ceasefire period. That's a very tall order, and I suspect that if Ukraine agrees it will be in bad faith. Most likely they simply won't agree.

The big problem with recognition of Russian territories is that it makes the use of force a valid way to acquire land. That would be a very dangerous precedent for world stability. Even in Syria and Iraq, they didn't dare to do that.
That's why I think that this Zelensky's red line will get the support of many western countries. And maybe from China too.

Completely true but also likely a sine qua non for Russia at this point. Ukraine recognizes the lost territories as Russia or the war goes on. I think this is one of the major stumbling blocks currently, possibly the single biggest one.

IMO, Trump should say that if parts of Ukraine is recognised as Russian land, then Taiwan will be recognised as a fully independent country. Then Xi will ask Putin to drop this demand.

No. The way that would play out is that Russia would simply respond by stating that America's recognition of Taiwan has no bearing on this negotiation, and if America is ready to recognize Russian land, great. America can then do whatever it chooses to vis-a-vis Taiwan and China. You could theoretically try to cinch it by requiring Russia to recognize the independence of Taiwan in exchange. But that would likely be rejected, without any need for calls from Xi.

More realistically, I think that Putin doesn't care much about international recognition as the change in the Russian Constitution to include the 4 Ukrainian Oblasts is enough to make it legitimate.

He needs to de-legitimize future Ukrainian efforts to retake the regions. That's why he needs the recognition. It doesn't matter how duplicitous it looks in the short term, given time and official Ukrainian recognition, a future resumption of hostilities by Ukraine to reclaim the territory would start to look like a fresh act of aggression. And the more time goes by, the more it will appear that way. Hence the need for the official recognition of loss of territory. If the territory remains politically disputed, then the question remains open indefinitely. Frozen conflicts can become unfrozen. Hence the focus on a lasting peace from Russia's side.

And I think they really do want a lasting peace, to digest the annexed territory. A python takes one hell of a nap after feeding.

I think he can agree to drop the demand for territories not yet under his control. But the peace talk expectation is that he would leave some territories that he already controls, instead.

I think one scenario could be that Russia wants to drop the demand for additional territories in exchange for recognition of currently taken territories as Russian, with some possible land swaps.

Putin will never accept any security guarantees. He made it abundantly clear already.
So there is no peace deal possible anyway, in my view.

That's not true. He doesn't want NATO guarantees. Nothing stops multi-lateral or EU guarantees.

The idea of a ceasefire is only a tool for Donald Trump to judge who is honest about peace and who is not. The one who keeps on firing is not the serious one.

No. The one who keeps firing is the one who is winning, who needs the ceasefire less. Again given the recent signals from Europe it's very likely that even a 30 day ceasefire could see European "peacekeepers" (in reality an allied military force) inserted into Ukraine.

Problem is that Russian Official's statements remain statements, not fact.
So far Putin hasn't agree to a ceasefire except the ridiculous proposal mentioned above.
I don't think that they realise what they are risking by continuing the war. They are not considering European forces as a valid threat. They think that all European soldiers are degenerate transgenders or something.

Maybe. Or maybe to Russian leadership the question of Ukraine appears as an existential one. Meaning they will go to the brink over this question.

 

[crest]

My first impression of the "cease fire". Trump is being trolled