Syria:
HTS vs Druze clashes in Jaramana, suburb of Damascus. Jaramana is not a predominantly Druze area.
Israeli PM Netanyahu and MoD Katz have instructed the IDF to prepare to defend the Druze population in Jaramana. Syrians on the ground reported hearing jet sounds, but no explosions were reported.
Gaza:
42-day Phase 1 of the ceasefire has ended yesterday. While both sides are trying to negotiate the 2nd phase, they're also taking practical steps.
Israel has halted humanitarian aid entry into Gaza.
Israel reportedly asks to keep Russia in Syria as a counterweight to Turkey.
Israel:
Order of 40,000 GP bombs of 2,000lbs class, including unspecified quantities of penetrating and non-penetrating, and 4,000 of an unknown to me I-2000 type penetrating warhead. Worth up to $2 billion.
Or $50,000 per bomb alone.
Order of 5,000 GP bombs of 1,000lbs class, of which 4,800 penetrating and 200 non-penetrating. And 5,000 JDAM guidance kits. Worth up to $675 million.
Or $135,000 per complete JDAM unit.
Order of D9R and D9T armored bulldozers worth up to $295 million. These are most relevant to Gaza and J&S to clear obstacles, traps, and fortifications and rubble.
Notice that these are absolute maximum monetary values, which usually get lowered in negotiations and depending on types selected by Israel.
Analysis:
Israel wants balkanization of Syria.
Ideal situation:
- 2 allies - Druze and Kurds.
- Working relations with HTS.
Workable situation:
- 2 neutral parties - Druze and Kurds.
- Hostile relations with HTS.
- Russia in Alawite territory.
Bad situation:
- Hostile relations with HTS.
- HTS controls all territory.
- Turkey as sponsor.
This spectrum shows that for Israel there is a clear interest in a divided Syria, and that there is some logic behind Russia staying as a counterweight for Turkey. But itself is not ideal, and only makes sense if Israel is sufficiently certain Turkey intends to and is capable of entering Syria with enough influence and force.
Unlike the SAA, a new HTS army with Turkish backing would have access to much more modern weaponry, including ballistic missiles with high accuracy, cruise missiles, advanced air defenses, sensors, naval assets, etc.
Israel demanding a DMZ up to Damascus, supporting the Druze, active diplomacy to mitigate Turkish influence, controlling a new buffer zone, and strikes on HTS forces violating Israeli requests - is a proactive approach that signifies a tectonic shift in Israeli policymaking, which under Netanyahu for as long as he was in power, has been so far characterized as passive, reactionist, and modest in scope.
However in Gaza the policy is still that, and not the proactive push we see in Syria. Part of that is related to Hamas holding hostages and binding Israel's hands, but arguably Israel could be more aggressive in Gaza as well.
What Israel could do:
- Set a reality such that by default nothing comes into Gaza from Israel or Egypt unless specified in a hostage deal, or unless Gaza accepts a reparations program in which it covers Israeli war expenses and compensates victims of the war.
- Set Salah Al Din road and Wadi Gaza as the new Gaza-Israel border, and everything up to it will become a closed military area under IDF control, and annexed to Israel. This would reduce Israel's border with Gaza from 70km to 33km, enabling much more effective defense.
- Resume targeted eliminations unless a hostage-related temporary ceasefire is in effect.
- Ban construction of concrete structures and underground work. This to reduce strain on manned aircraft and lower expenditure of penetrating warheads.
- Initiate a ground maneuver into areas previously uncovered, including the entirety of Khan Younis and Mawasi. The Mawasi humanitarian zone can be relocated somewhere else along the coastline.
www.jpost.com
