Middle East Defence & Security

Fredled

Active Member
@Musashi_kenshin I understand that my comment looks not politically correct. But you can't explain the phenomenons in the Middle East without considering the extreme importance of religion in this region. An importance that we, non-muslims, have no idea of.
It doesn't mean that people there support the most violent groups. Islamic doesn't mean forcibly violent or terrorist. To the contrary, for muslims, Islamism is the right thing because it's supposed to causes good to humanity. In the facts, Daesh failed because of their indiscriminate terror. But a group promoting the Islamic Law will have the support of the majority of muslims (not all, but the majority).
In this context, promoting muslim values and the "True Islam" is a big motivation to fight and sometimes to give their life. Each tribal faction consider themselves as "True Muslim" while others are either also true muslim when they are allies (but not as true as themselves) or hypocrites when they are ennemies.

While it's true that people rally behind the strongest, it doesn't mean they like it. If given a chance, the majority of muslims in muslim countries will support a government wish will at least base the law on the Sharia and promote the virtues of Islam because not doing so would be a bad thing in their mind. It doesn't mean that they always chose the most extreme sect preachers as leaders. There are nuances. Sometimes they disagree with too extreme versions of Islam while still wanting a relatively strict one.

That's why the group winning over Assad is an Islamic one and why it's winning easily against a secular regime.
Soldiers in Assad's army didn't see the point to sacrifying themselves to defend something that had no connection with Islam or the notion of true Islam. (And since Assad fled like a coward, they don;t regret it).

The Taliban were defeated by the US invasion, but the government which replaced them ultimately was suddenly toppled when the Taliban came back because they were not Islamic (or not Islamic the way most of Afghans wanted). They had zero support from the population.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Musashi_kenshin I understand that my comment looks not politically correct. But you can't explain the phenomenons in the Middle East without considering the extreme importance of religion in this region. An importance that we, non-muslims, have no idea of.
It doesn't mean that people there support the most violent groups. Islamic doesn't mean forcibly violent or terrorist. To the contrary, for muslims, Islamism is the right thing because it's supposed to causes good to humanity. In the facts, Daesh failed because of their indiscriminate terror. But a group promoting the Islamic Law will have the support of the majority of muslims (not all, but the majority).
In this context, promoting muslim values and the "True Islam" is a big motivation to fight and sometimes to give their life. Each tribal faction consider themselves as "True Muslim" while others are either also true muslim when they are allies (but not as true as themselves) or hypocrites when they are ennemies.

While it's true that people rally behind the strongest, it doesn't mean they like it. If given a chance, the majority of muslims in muslim countries will support a government wish will at least base the law on the Sharia and promote the virtues of Islam because not doing so would be a bad thing in their mind. It doesn't mean that they always chose the most extreme sect preachers as leaders. There are nuances. Sometimes they disagree with too extreme versions of Islam while still wanting a relatively strict one.

That's why the group winning over Assad is an Islamic one and why it's winning easily against a secular regime.
Soldiers in Assad's army didn't see the point to sacrifying themselves to defend something that had no connection with Islam or the notion of true Islam. (And since Assad fled like a coward, they don;t regret it).

The Taliban were defeated by the US invasion, but the government which replaced them ultimately was suddenly toppled when the Taliban came back because they were not Islamic (or not Islamic the way most of Afghans wanted). They had zero support from the population.
This view is ridiculously simplistic and horribly wrong. Nobody is trying to explain the "phenomenons of the Middle East" without considering the importance of religion. But it doesn't mean that forces in Syria simply won't fight because Assad isn't supporting Islam the way they would like him to. Assad stayed in power for 4 years from '11 through most of '15 until Russia showed up and Iran stepped up to the plate directly. And he was losing the entire time, just losing slowly. The alliance stepped up when there was a real threat of Damascus falling, with Russian jets transporting Iranian affiliated militias from Iraq to Syria to halt the slow defeat of the SAA at the outskirts of Damascus. But the SAA did fight, despite Assad definitely not winning for a long time. How long did SAA forces manage to hold out in the encircled Kuweires airbase? Did they hold out because they thought Assad was winning despite all evidence to the contrary? There is obviously much more to this then what you propose.

I can't help wondering why Assad's army crumbled so quickly & completely. Had there been some backroom deal between generals & rebels? Or were the rank & file so demoralised that rather than fight they just went home/ran away/changed sides? There seems to have been almost no fighting since the fall of Aleppo. And al-Jalali staying behind - had he already been talking to HTS?
It may be that Assad won the war but lost the peace. The major fighting ended in Syria around iirc 2019? Yet not a whole lot has been done since then to rebuild, and Syria's economy was in shambles. The loss of control over oil and gas fields didn't help, and Russia wasn't really interested in propping Syria up economically, if anything I suspect Russia wanted the opposite, contract from Syria for Russian companies.

It's a setback for Russia & Iran. Their foreign policies don't seem to be doing well. Did Putin decide Syria's too expensive to keep propping up? Was it a recognition of overstretch? And it's going to make Iranian support of Hezbollah more complicated, unless Iran can make a deal with the new lot - but I can imagine them not being keen on confrontation with Israel, given the condition of Syria, & the war-weariness of its people.
Yeah it's really not clear. Maybe both Russia and Iran totally missed a complete collapse of the Assad regime and also missed the preparation for an offensive in Idlib? Maybe a deal was made behind the scenes to sell out Syria to Turkey? There's a lot of possibilities. I think the future of Russian bases in Syria will point firmly to either one or the other option.

Russia's hand in the Syrian Civil War is well documented and they, together with Iran kept Assad going for a lot longer than he could on his own. Wagner had to take Palmyra (twice) for Assad, they fought against HTS in Hama, Deir ez-Zor etc. Heck, even in the last days, Russians were flying CAS out of Khmeimim air base against HTS.

It would be a reasonable assumption to suggest that they are certainly not welcomed any more. Angry? More than likely. Sames goes for the Iranians, they get a special mention in his victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque .
On the one hand they saved Assad, on the other hand they pounded ISIS into the ground pretty hard. Either way, this isn't evidence, it's reasoning. I understand this reasoning. My question was, do you have any evidence? Any factual basis? That would be interesting to see. Reasoning, especially from another country, isn't always all that reliable unless we have mountains of context to draw upon. And Syria is fairly divided. It may be the case that one section of the country likes Russia well enough and another thinks they're the little Satan. It would be insightful to see the actual breakdown.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
My question was, do you have any evidence? Any factual basis? That would be interesting to see. Reasoning, especially from another country, isn't always all that reliable unless we have mountains of context to draw upon. And Syria is fairly divided. It may be the case that one section of the country likes Russia well enough and another thinks they're the little Satan. It would be insightful to see the actual breakdown.
Of course I don't have evidence, but in the first place, you are asking a question (Is there any evidence that they're angry at Russia? ) with no objective/factual, yes/no answer.

That objective answer can only be done if course, by running a field survey on the ground with a set of yes/no questions, some Likert scale on the likeability of Russian forces and their opinion on the future of Russia in Syria, then make sure that the survey is a representative segment of the Syrian society, with proper stratification across region/age/gender and adequate sample size.

With that, it would make a reasonable assumption that Russia, being (1) a true external actor that is neither remotely ethnically, or religiously aligned, (2) known to have acted in the interest of Assad and in a extremely violent fashion and (3) who's only interest in Syria at this stage is its strategic interest, not the future of Syrians, is unlikely to be welcomed.

That being said, how significant this factor is to the future of Russia in Syria IS unknown. While I don't ever see the likes of Wagner actively on the frontlines or RuAF flying out of Khmeimim to support any particular rebel group, it remains a very fractured situation on the ground. A scaled-back presence (no interference with internal affairs) is not entirely impossible for reasons that @Ananda mentioned.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Of course I don't have evidence, but in the first place, you are asking a question (Is there any evidence that they're angry at Russia? ) with no objective/factual, yes/no answer.

That objective answer can only be done if course, by running a field survey on the ground with a set of yes/no questions, some Likert scale on the likeability of Russian forces and their opinion on the future of Russia in Syria, then make sure that the survey is a representative segment of the Syrian society, with proper stratification across region/age/gender and adequate sample size.
That would be one form of evidence. Anectodal evidence could be another kind, if you know people from the country/region. There also could have been publications by people from that part of the world, or actions, protests, etc. that could point to some sort of public opinion on the subject. I understand there might not be an answer. However it's not immediately obvious that you don't have evidence. Hence my question.

With that, it would make a reasonable assumption that Russia, being (1) a true external actor that is neither remotely ethnically, or religiously aligned, (2) known to have acted in the interest of Assad and in a extremely violent fashion and (3) who's only interest in Syria at this stage is its strategic interest, not the future of Syrians, is unlikely to be welcomed.
Tricky. Because when Russia showed up it pointed to a potential end to the war, and it in many ways did do that. And ISIS wasn't exactly all that popular among many ordinary people. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria wasn't exactly surgical. But it was far more surgical then Assad's use of improvised munitions, and attacks on civilians and enemy combatants with minimal to no discrimination. It also wasn't obvious when bombs fell who dropped them. On the flip side Russia did things like had military medical personnel provide free services to civilians on a traveling basis, and distributed humanitarian aid. There were cases of rebel groups that were willing to deal with Russia and ultimately accept some sort of disarmament, who absolutely weren't willing to deal with the Syrian government. So it could be case that feelings towards Russia are generally positive, whether this is well deserved or not is another story.

One thing is that people living in certain societies or cultures inhabit an information space that is often radically different from the one you or I might exist in. So their opinions and feelings on a topic might be unexpected and even counter-intuitive to an external observer who doesn't have the same cultural framework to draw upon. Human beings are not perfectly rational machines with consistent access to information that therefore form predictable opinions consistently.

That being said, how significant this factor is to the future of Russia in Syria IS unknown. While I don't ever see the likes of Wagner actively on the frontlines or RuAF flying out of Khmeimim to support any particular rebel group, it remains a very fractured situation on the ground. A scaled-back presence (no interference with internal affairs) is not entirely impossible for reasons that @Ananda mentioned.
Yeah, I would concur. Russia wants their bases there at this point not because they want to necessarily be involved in Syria but because it's the basis for Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean, it's a major tool for Russian projection into the region, and Russian actions in north-Africa (Libya). So I suspect Russia would want to retain the bases if they can be retained safely.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
IDF Merkava 4M tank on a road in Quneitra, a Syrian town inside the buffer zone, largely abandoned in 1974.

Quneitra is significant only in that it's built right along the border between Israel and Syria, and there they also have a border crossing. This is in line with reports that the IDF has entered the buffer zone controlled by UNDOF.

For those fond of the Israel-UNDOF-Nusra-White-Helmets conspiracy theory, it was that area where Israel and UNDOF coordinated movement of people between Israel and Syria.



It's likely this temporary advance is done to facilitate earth works. Israel set up a series of physical obstacles along the Syrian border. Here's one set up recently:

(Mt Hermon, that was all over the news yesterday, in the background).


The goal should be simple and logical: Beef up border protection to deter incursions into Israel. Beyond mere security reasons, these will also assist Israel in avoiding diplomatic incidents with Syria, as rogue elements may still try to attack Israel and UNDOF, as we've seen 2 days ago.

Some footage here of IDF paratroopers entering Syria:

To remove confusion, Israel and Syria signed an agreement in 1974 in which a buffer zone was established in the Golan area. It is a narrow strip of land extending across the entire Israel-Syria border. It is controlled by a UN mission called UNDOF. Let's refer to this area now as DMZ.
Israel is establishing a further buffer zone around Quneitra to beef up security.



Iran remains a wildcard. Its loss of 2 of its strongest allies in under 2 weeks is objectively a huge impact. But Iran too held some of its punches, and it has significant freedom in choosing its next strategy. It could go under the radar, it could go all in, and a lot of wiggle room in between.
Something certainly to keep eyes on is Iran's nuclear program.
We can generally describe Biden and Trump as opposites in terms of foreign security policies. Biden prefers the "de-escalate to escalate" school of thought. Trump prefers the "escalate to de-escalate" one. Both have their uses, but Iran is objectively more afraid of the latter.
It would benefit the west more if Iran's nuclear program is dealt with, and the demise of the IRGC is significantly accelerated.
But Trump's rhetoric regarding Ukraine-Russia and the hostage situation in Gaza, certainly can be interpreted in more than one way, and that includes some deal with Iran/IRGC.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Now Russia's ships have left Tartus. The ultimate fate of Russian bases is still unclear, and per fighterbomber there are some Russian troop detachments that have gotten cut off in mainland Syria. Russia's withdrawal is starting to look more and more likely.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Perhaps the most important events going on right now in Syria are the Israeli bombing campaign against Assad's military assets.
Ships, planes, tanks, air defenses, SSMs, AShMs, all of it.
HTS may choose whether or not to be friendly with Israel, but they'll make that choice free of Assad's formerly vast arsenal.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Perhaps the most important events going on right now in Syria are the Israeli bombing campaign against Assad's military assets.
Ships, planes, tanks, air defenses, SSMs, AShMs, all of it.
HTS may choose whether or not to be friendly with Israel, but they'll make that choice free of Assad's formerly vast arsenal.
Some of Russia's leadership seem to have similar ideas. A Russian troop column in Kurdish held areas apparently "acquired" a SAA Tochka-U TEL presumably to avoid letting the rebels seize it. On a side note this isn't even the only Russian troop formation in Kurdish held areas, in the third link we have a second one. This cuts against the idea that some sort of deal was made to sell out Assad and suggests that this really was an uncontrolled collapse.


EDIT: Rebel forces in Latakia.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Israel conducted massive air strikes against Syrian military assets and air bases and an incursion in the direction of Damascus:
Reuters said:
An Israeli military incursion into Syria has reached about 25 km (16 miles) southwest of Damascus, Syrian security sources said on Tuesday, after Israel seized a buffer zone in southern Syria and launched air strikes on Syrian army and air bases overnight.

Israel's military operation into Syria comes two days after the lightning overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by a rebel alliance left Syrians, regional countries and world powers nervous about what comes next.


A Syrian security source said Israeli troops reached Qatana, which is 10 km (six miles) into Syrian territory east of a demilitarised zone separating Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syria.

The Israeli military declined comment.

Israel has said it will not become involved in conflict in Syria and that its seizure of the buffer zone was a defensive move.

Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have condemned the incursion. Saudi Arabia said the move would "ruin Syria's chances of restoring security".


Regional security sources and officers within the now fallen Syrian army said heavy Israeli airstrikes continued against military installations and airbases across Syria overnight, destroying dozens of helicopters and jets, as well as Republican Guard assets in and around Damascus.

The rough tally of 200 raids had left nothing of the Syrian army's assets, they said.

Israel said its airstrikes would carry on for days but told the U.N. Security Council that it was not intervening in Syria's conflict. It said it had taken "limited and temporary measures" solely to protect its security.
It seems that Israel don't want former al-Qaida affiliates to be able to use the Syrian Army's equipment, weapons, amminutions and air power. The rebels are not able to fly planes, but if Syrian pilots join them, there is a risk. Better eliminate the treath by destroying the weapon and ammunitions as soon as possible.
The next Syrian government won't be pro-Israeli to say the least.
That's my opinion.

______________________
Feanor said:
But it doesn't mean that forces in Syria simply won't fight because Assad isn't supporting Islam the way they would like him to.
I agree with you but that's not exactly what I wanted to say. The Assad regime was a remnant of the "socialist" regimes (or secular regimes if you prefer) which prevailed until the end of the 90's. It almost fell during the Arab Spring. For various reasons, Assad kept the power in part of the country and his army kept fighting hard against the rebels.
The most powerful group fighting against Assad is the Islamic one because religion is a very important motivation factor for soldiers and civilians. Soldiers motivated by religious believes are not afraid to die and ready to take more risks in a battle. Other groups fighting against Assad have also more or less religious motivation because that's the way it works there. Assad's fighters didn't have this religious motivation and that explains why all of a sudden they fled, avoided fighting, took on civilian clothes and left their tanks and BMPs behind. They fought until some point, but it didn't take them much to abandon their duty.

The fall of Assad marked the end of the era of secular dictatorships in the Middle East.

Even thought, he did defend Islamic values in some speeches here and there, he was not a religious leader like, say, Moqtada al Sadr or Nashralah. That's whay he wasn't as respected as the latters.

I would even speculate that the alliance with Hezbollah could have given some of the Assad's fighters the religious motivation they were lacking. Some of them, not all of them. Of course Russian air support was the main factor to allow Assad forces to fight.

The same can be said about Turkish backed rebels (sorry I forgot the acronyme). They are important because of the military equipment and training given by Turkey. The YPG and PKK are also important because they represent the interrest of the Kurdish population. But the Islamic gtoups led by the HTS is the strongest. Religous bellieve compensate for the lack of heavy weapons and training. And they have the support of the non-Kurdish and non-Allawite populations. It's still unclear how they will cope with Shia, Druze and Christians in the ethno-religous puzzle of Syria. That's why they keep a conciliatory tone but sectarian fighting could arise in the near future.
The fact is that radical Islam, be it shiite or sunnite, still has the momentum.
 

PachkaSigaret

New Member
Videos are starting to crop up of reprisal executions of former Syrian officials, former Army officers, and seemingly Alawites in general. Nothing surprising, however this should be highlighted as to what kind of people we are dealing with here.

x.com

Recent satelitte images of Tartus, Khmeimim, and the port of Latakia. Besides striking arms caches, it seems Israel was proactive in destroying what remains of the Syrian navy.

x.com

Some harsh and critical observations from Russians driving past a large group of Syrian soldiers who tossed their weapons and are heading by foot to the Iraqi border. Location is apparently in North-Eastern Syria.

Повёрнутые на войне

Kurds going through abandoned armaments leftover from the SAA.

Повёрнутые на войне
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Curious footage emerges. It appears Russian elements can move through rebel controlled areas. Note one of them yelling that these are Russians, presumably warning rebel fighters not to engage. Note the vehicles are armored and two have autocannons, but both the Vystrel and the BTR are relatively lightly armored. Not sure who would come out ahead in an engagement, probably depends on what the rebels are armed with. So it's possible they also chose not to engage because it could go badly for them.


EDIT: Russian ships are still set up off the coast but 6 Syrian missile boats in Tartus remain intact, suggesting Israel has chosen not to strike that facility.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Not sure who would come out ahead in an engagement, probably depends on what the rebels are armed with. So it's possible they also chose not to engage because it could go badly for them.
The heaviest rebel vehicles from the footage I have seen are pick-up trucks with a machine gun. In Ukraine we were used to see BMP's destroyed by the hundreds as if they were worthless and with no armour, but in Syria they still look like terrifying machines.

Is there somewhere a list of the weapons of each rebel factions in Syria?
Would be interesting if up to date.

It seems that there is an agreement to allow Russians to retreat to their bases in Latakia and Hmeimin and they will be likely confined there until further notice.

Rumours about Russia evacuating Syria are not true but they are moving large quantities of equipment by air and by boat back to Russia. There are no indication that Russia is going to leave their two bases in Tartous and Hmeimin according to Reuters.
It seems that Russian's role in Syria, hence in the M-E, is over, not their presence in the Mediterranean Sea.
In the future, the new Syrian authorities could tolerate the Russian bases as long as they don't interfere in Syrian affairs (and perhaps pay something) on the basis that Russia has a 49 years lease on these bases. But the Syrian don;t have the power, and I think, the motivation, to oust the Russian by force despite them being the friends of the ennemies. IMO there are talks going on in Moscow with the new leadership.

Feanor said:
Russian ships are still set up off the coast but 6 Syrian missile boats in Tartus remain intact, suggesting Israel has chosen not to strike that facility.
IMO, Israel wanted to avoid hitting Russiams by mistake. They didn't want take the risk.
It's also possible that the Syrian boats are under Russian protection and won't fall into the hand of HTS.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
IMO, Israel wanted to avoid hitting Russiams by mistake. They didn't want take the risk.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the reason Russia is able to stay in Syria is this “counterweight” to Israel (and other parties as well). It looks like this is all of a sudden beneficial to have the Russians present there, at least for now, pending further development, likely permanent (reasonably speaking). I am sure Israel doesn’t mind it either. And Iran appears to be “not welcome” officially, for now, which is also a win for the two aforementioned parties in particular, and most of the involved, really. Funny how things work out (provided they do work out).


There were reports that Ukraine sent FPV drones and drone operators to the HTS a few weeks prior to the offensive.


I wouldn’t necessarily believe these reports as it is completely counterproductive to the Ukrainian efforts in Ukraine, but it seems to be in accordance with their other previous questionable decisions.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t be surprised if the reason Russia is able to stay in Syria is this “counterweight” to Israel (and other parties as well). It looks like this is all of a sudden beneficial to have the Russians present there, at least for now, pending further development, likely permanent (reasonably speaking). I am sure Israel doesn’t mind it either. And Iran appears to be “not welcome” officially, for now, which is also a win for the two aforementioned parties in particular, and most of the involved, really. Funny how things work out (provided they do work out).
Russia has no beef with Israel. They're enemies, yes, but Israel and Russia are two nations that are locally very strong, but otherwise unable to project power and that is a good combination to let Russia and Israel remain out of each other's lane, even if their independent security policies often hurt each other's interests. So I don't see any reason why any of these would spend resources to hurt the other.
Russia was there to prevent Assad's regime from crumbling at the hands of rebels, not Israel. And Israel was there to prevent Iranian, not Russian, influence.
Russia removing its assets is definitely a positive for Israel as although Russia won't use anything kinetically against Israel, it would certainly employ soft means such as providing early warning to Iran on an impending attack.
For Israel, any non-American influence in Syria is strictly negative.

There were reports that Ukraine sent FPV drones and drone operators to the HTS a few weeks prior to the offensive.


I wouldn’t necessarily believe these reports as it is completely counterproductive to the Ukrainian efforts in Ukraine, but it seems to be in accordance with their other previous questionable decisions.
Why would these be counter-productive?
Ukraine spent little resources on something that amounted to Russia losing its presence in Syria, which is a big hit.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
I wouldn’t necessarily believe these reports as it is completely counterproductive to the Ukrainian efforts in Ukraine, but it seems to be in accordance with their other previous questionable decisions.
Ukrainians will kill or help others to kill Russian soldiers anywhere in the world. That's their logic.
They did it in Africa. They can do it in Syria.

Now, 150 FPV drones is a vewry small quantity, while they are using over one million per year.
However I have doubts about the "20 drone operators". Ukraine can't afford to send 20 specialists in tourist trips whilee they lack personel in the Donbas. Maybe 20 Ukrainians went to Syria for talks and other reasons, and 3 of them were drone oprating teachers.

KipPotapych said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if the reason Russia is able to stay in Syria is this “counterweight” to Israel (and other parties as well). It looks like this is all of a sudden beneficial to have the Russians present there, at least for now, pending further development, likely permanent (reasonably speaking).
Yes, Russia could tolerated in the area by Israel as a counterweight against HTS or even more dangerous sunni militias.
Yet, in any case, I think that Israel will always avoid strinking Russians military assets to avoid further problems.

Big_Zucchini said:
Russia has no beef with Israel. They're enemies, yes,
In fact, no. Israel and Russia had good relations until Russia collaborated with Iran to aquire the Shaheds.
Russia transfering military technology and Mig35 to Iran broke the friendship between the two nations. But there was a real friendship thanks to the numerous Russians living in Israel and all the Russian Jewish Oligarchs in the Russian elite close to the power.
The nail on the coffin was when Putin showed support to Hamas.
Two mistakes which cost Putin a precious ally or at least a neutral/friendly nation.
Israel became also a host countries for many Russian jews who disagree with the war in Ukraine and anti-gay policies.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some updates, Russia is in the middle if a major evacuation in Syria. It appears hundreds of Russian vehicles and probably thousands of service members were scattered all over Syria, many of them National Guard (Rosgvardia). Some Russian units are cut off behind the new front line, in Kurdish areas and are apparently being air-lifted out. It's interesting how many armored vehicles there are, including MRAPs, armored cars and trucks, and BTRs. Freed up kit could end up going into Ukraine. On the other hand there is increased Russian military activity in Libya, and at least one Russian transport plane headed in that direction. It's possible Russia will quietly move into facilities in Libya.


Some footage of Khmeimeem and Tartus, we can see the in-progress Russian evacuation. What's interesting is that some of Russia's SAMs at that base appear to be preparing to leave.


Russian helos massed in Latakia from all over Syria.


Russian transport landing at Khemeimeem.


Russian units on the move in Syria, presumably heading for the coast.


A column of Russian military police MRAPs (Ural-VV) near Khmeimeem.


Russian cargo ships heading presumably to Syria.


Russian transport plans landing in Russia, they evacuated much of the diplomatic personnel, and personnel from Belarus and Abkhazia.


Russian vehicles in Qamishli. Note the Russian Il-76 that landed there. It's likely Turkey is allowing Russia to air-evacuate their forces from Kurdish areas.


Russian forces securing a Syrian Su-24 position, it's unclear if Russia intends to claim the jets for themselves. Russia donated a number of Su-24M2s to the Syrians, upon them being withdrawn from Russian service.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member

Him along with other prominent journalists, signal that Russia will probably end up keeping most if not allthier bases. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but even if they end up keeping all the bases, if they are not actviely in a war in Syria, they dont really need much personnel and equipment over there.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
In fact, no. Israel and Russia had good relations until Russia collaborated with Iran to aquire the Shaheds.
Russia transfering military technology and Mig35 to Iran broke the friendship between the two nations. But there was a real friendship thanks to the numerous Russians living in Israel and all the Russian Jewish Oligarchs in the Russian elite close to the power.
The nail on the coffin was when Putin showed support to Hamas.
Two mistakes which cost Putin a precious ally or at least a neutral/friendly nation.
Israel became also a host countries for many Russian jews who disagree with the war in Ukraine and anti-gay policies.
You're mistaking lack of overt hostility with friendship. By the same logic I could say the US and China are friendly nations to one another, just because they're not actively fighting a war. But that won't make it true. The entire cold war was characterized by a de facto war being prosecuted without going "hot", instead through proxies.
During the cold war, the USSR was a major antagonist for Israel. It supported, armed, and even fought beside - the Arab states that waged war on Israel.
When the USSR fell, Russia remained an arms supplier to Israel's enemies. Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, etc - all had modern Russian, not Soviet, weapons.
 
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