The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes · Jan 24, 2025

tank3487 said:
Chasov Yar is rare exception, it is dominating height in the area and it is downhill for huge area after that. If they lose it, they would be forced to retreat up to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area and would still be faced with unfavorable defense terrain. It is probably the most critical point if you want to hold what is left from Donbass under Ukrainian control.

I see your point but they don't have to retreat that far. Ishevka and Maiske are still in high ground, not to mention having Kostiantinivka and O-Drushkivka (industrial complex and some blocks N. of it) in the south flank. North of Bilokuszminivka the terrain rises again, we can see some (old, I guess) trenches there.
All that if Ukraine prepares the terrain for defence. Russia did in Robotine and both are ex-Soviet armies.

Feanor · Jan 24, 2025

rsemmes said:
I see your point but they don't have to retreat that far. Ishevka and Maiske are still in high ground, not to mention having Kostiantinivka and O-Drushkivka (industrial complex and some blocks N. of it) in the south flank. North of Bilokuszminivka the terrain rises again, we can see some (old, I guess) trenches there.
All that if Ukraine prepares the terrain for defence. Russia did in Robotine and both are ex-Soviet armies.

Well... you don't want your front line to be your best and only line. You want to have fall back options. And Ukraine is going to be utilizing these fallback options. There's also no evidence that Ukraine is taking greater casualties then Russia in Chasov Yar. So it's a logical place to put up a very stubborn defense with no real flanking threats. Again there are situations where Ukraine fails to withdraw in a timely manner resulting in terrible outcomes. The current situation in Velikaya Novoselka is a great example, it appears to be the first substantial encirclement of Ukrainian forces since '22. Similar problems occurred during the final stages of the fighting around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, Avdeevka, Kurakhovo, etc. Right now Russia is trying to create a similar scenario around the much larger Pokrovsk metropolitan area. But in Chasov Yar Russian forces are assaulting neighborhood by neighborhood against determined resistance fighting from prepared positions. Chasov Yar and Toretsk are places where it makes sense for Ukraine to put up this kind of a fight.

hauritz · Jan 25, 2025

Why Ukraine's all-drone, multi-domain attack could be a 'seminal' moment in warfare - Breaking Defense

A December operation exclusively featured weaponized uncrewed ground vehicles and FPV attack drones and did not feature any crewed platforms or boots on the ground, according to a speaker at the International Armoured Vehicle conference.

breakingdefense.com

Last December Ukraine pulled off what could be the first all drone multi domain attack against Russian forces. The result, while not exactly game changing, is still perhaps a seminal moment in modern warfare. The attack consisted entirely of armed uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) and FPV attack drones. While the effectiveness of this attack is not known it does indicate a continuing trend of using cheap, attritable drones rather than relying on boots on the ground. More emphasis as well on counter EW with constantly shifting drone operating frequencies and AI.

I expect we will eventually see the same from the Russians leading to the possibility of battles fought almost entirely with drones.

seaspear · Jan 25, 2025

Its been reported that to counter e.w, drones are now guided by as much as 40 kilometres of fibre ,,shown here to be difficult to counter it has the potential as in much of the world being largely not seen as a weapon to be of use to terrorists or assassin's

Bob53 · Jan 25, 2025

Update from the TWZ…interesting to see other perspective of the same reports.

Russians Enter Last Major Ukrainian Stronghold In Key Eastern Sector

Ukraine Situation Report: Loss of Velyka Novosilka could pave the way for deeper Russian advances.

www.twz.com

hauritz · Sunday at 3:37 AM

seaspear said:
Its been reported that to counter e.w, drones are now guided by as much as 40 kilometres of fibre ,,shown here to be difficult to counter it has the potential as in much of the world being largely not seen as a weapon to be of use to terrorists or assassin's

The toughness of optical fibre can vary greatly. It is about the same width as a human hair but has many times its tensile strength. How strong depends on the fibre but I imagine they would probably just use commercial grade for drones.

Optical Fiber FPV Drone Kit 0.5mm 0.6mm 2km 3km 5km 10km 15km 20km Internal Wiring UAV Fibre Optic Image Data Module ABS Optical Communication RC - Xingkai Technology

Essential Blocks Slider Subtitle

xingkaitech.com

Bob53 · Monday at 4:28 PM

Article about some of the NK troops in Kursk. A North Korean Colonel Raced Into Battle With Two Automatic Weapons: One For Close Combat, Another For Shooting Down Drones

Feanor · Monday at 6:29 PM

Velikaya Novoselka has fallen. I'll try to do an update by tomorrow, but that's really the biggest event. Russian forces are continuing to wrap around Pokrovsk from the west. They failed to take the cross road in the east, and instead are pushing northward east of there. In Toretsk Russian forces are inside the last mine complex, but the refuse mound is still in Ukrainian hands (that's the north-eastern one in the Krymskoe suburb). In Chasov Yar it appears Russia has taken the factory again but this time also has the flanks to it, and Chasov Yar is probably going to fall. Ukraine is still fighting there, but it's now a slow retreat. The Seversk salient remains quiet. On the Oskol front Russian forces continue to develop their positions across the Zherebets with some success despite Ukrainian counter-attacks. And across the Oskol Russia also expands their area of control. At this point it's likely Kupyansk will face a threat from the north-west. It's possible Russia will also try their envlopment approach there, rather then trying to assault through the town.

rsemmes · Wednesday at 7:44 AM

If France is ready to send troops to Ukraine (in the future), it is also ready to send them to Greenland.

Envoi de troupes européennes
Cette initiative peut aussi être interprétée comme un gage donné aux Etats-Unis sur la sécurité dans cette région très sensible. A ce sujet, le ministre français des affaires étrangères, Jean-Noël Barrot, a déclaré mardi que l’envoi de troupes européennes pour assurer la sécurité dans l’Arctique était « une possibilité » mais qu’« elle ne se pose pas » pour le Danemark dans l’immédiat.
Robert Brieger, président du comité militaire de l’Union européenne (CMUE) a été le premier à émettre l’idée de positionner des troupes européennes au Groenland, jugeant que « cela enverrait un signal fort et contribuerait à la stabilité dans la région », dans un entretien à Welt am Sonntag publié samedi.

Face à Donald Trump, le Danemark en quête de soutien européen sur le Groenland

La première ministre danoise, Mette Frederiksen, est arrivée mardi à la mi-journée à Paris, dans le cadre d’une tournée européenne pour obtenir le soutien de ses homologues face aux visées de Donald Trump sur le Groenland. Elle devait rallier Bruxelles dans l’après-midi.

www.lemonde.fr

Of course, we haven't seen what unit has been selected and is training for the mission.

The point is that Ukraine is still fighting against corruption...

En Ukraine, polémique autour du ministre de la défense
Le ministre de la défense, Rustem Umerov, s’oppose à la reconduction de la directrice de l’Agence d’acquisition d’armement. Cette décision controversée déclenche des appels à la démission du ministre, accusé de saper les efforts contre la corruption.

En Ukraine, polémique autour du ministre de la défense

Le ministre de la défense, Rustem Umerov, s’oppose à la reconduction de la directrice de l’Agence d’acquisition d’armement. Cette décision controversée déclenche des appels à la démission du ministre, accusé de saper les efforts contre la corruption.

www.lemonde.fr

Or not fighting.

Feanor · Wednesday at 8:48 PM

Update.

This is a long one. I was busy last week and let them pile up. The biggest change we have is that Russia's advance seems to have slowed down. After 400-600kms per month for the second half of last year I doubt January will clear 300. It's not immediately obvious why this is, and there are a few possible reasons. As always it's likely more then one factor is at play. Ukraine did deploy reinforcements, the 150th series brigades to the front. While their performance has been poor, more troops is still more troops. Russia also likely needs at least some time to regroup and refit after completing the offensive out of Avdeevka that started last February and ended, mostly, this January with the fall of Velikaya Novoselka and the collapse of the Kurakhovo area defenses. Russia is trying for the flanks of Pokrovsk more (on the west) or less (on the east) successfully. We also have signs of Russian depletion of armored vehicles in service. So far this doesn't yet represent an end to the stockpile, but it's definitely a change.

Kursk region.

Russian forces reached the outskirts of Sverdlikovo along a narrow path, no report on the fate of the attempt so far. Russian forces also pushed south-east of Zeleniy Shlyakh, but Ukrainian forces retook some positions near Viktorovka. On the east Ukrainian forces have pushed Russia out of Makhnovka and Dimitryukov completely.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1065: Situation on Kursk front: At Sudzhansky district Russian Army began the assault to Sverdlikovo reaching the western outskirts of the locality. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1061: Situation on Kursk front: At Sudzhansky district during the last twelve days Ukrainian Army progressively recaptured completely the localities of Makhnovka & Dmitriukov reversing almost all Russian gains on this axis since the beginning of the month. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1060: Situation on Kursk front: At Sudzhansky district during the last three days Russian Army made small advances south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Meanwhile Ukrainian Army recaptured some positions southwest of Viktorovka. Map: [...

t.me

Russian assault team in action throwing grenades to clear out Ukrainian positions, Kursk area.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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