Do you ever question why Russian forces have resorted to using golf carts and motorcycles for assaults and logistics?
First off I have to wonder if you've read the thread. This question has been discussed and questioned many times, including by me.
Second off I think we have to separate these things out because they happened at different times. As late as 2023 Russian forces were routinely using BMPs and MT-LBs for front-line logistics. Slowly but surely the availability of armored vehicles for this sort of thing shrank. Russian forces remained mechanized but had to conserve armored vehicles for actual combat. By early-mid 2024 unarmored vehicles had taken over all logistics. Now in late 2024 we have a handful of cases where it appears unarmored vehicles were used to carry assault teams. This suggest depletion of armored vehicles in some units.
However the use of motor-bikes and ATVs on the front lines started as far back as 2022 in some cases, and Russian forces have reported that they can use them in places and situations where an armored vehicle wouldn't get through. It's faster to dismount and run for cover from a motorbike then out of a BMP. And their movement speed can be considerably greater. Additionally some Russian assault elements have been very small, pairs or 4-man teams. Two bikes carrying two soldiers each in some scenarios is actually safer then a 4-man team riding a BMP. Additionally it means that if the assault fails the casualties are lower.
And has the weather been so bad that SU27/34/35s are unable to fly? And F16s can’t compete? Has there been any air to air duels? Surely The Russian Airforce with all their advanced radars and satellite tracking knows where the F16s are. Why don’t they just blow them up?
It's not a binary situation. It's not that either they're completely unable to fly, or that there are some restrictions on their operations impacting op-tempo. For the purpose of measuring strikes we typically rely on Ukrainian data because Russia isn't really putting out good data, at least that I'm aware of. Now consider the FB post above regarding strikes. It actually explains everything, the decrease, the perceived decrease, and even the problematic Russian military culture.
On the question of the F-16, it was addressed by another poster above as to whether they can compete or not. But as far as we can tell there have been no air "duels", mostly because wars aren't fought in duels, and partly because it appears Ukraine has been hiding their F-16s in Romania and Poland. They seem to be based out of there, dip into Ukraine for a quick mission, intercept some Russian inbounds, and then do their maintenance abroad. We did see a Russian strike on Starokonstantinov that apparently killed some foreign instructors that were training Ukrainian ground crews on the F-16. Some reports claim that one or more F-16s were damaged/destroyed in that strike. Starokonstantinov has HAS all over the place so it's also not always possible to tell from satellites where the jets are.
Does anyone wonder why they are using truck as an assault vehicle?
Yes. Many people are wondering. Hence my post.
It’s quite clear that Russian with a Population 4 x of Ukraine has a manpower advantage. with a NKs in Kursk it does appear they have sent special forces and some of their better units but at this stage they are restricted top operating on Russian soil. If they operate on Ukrainian soil it would open the door to other countries assisting Ukraine with troops On the ground.
It's probably far more then 4X. Ukraine's population on paper was 40+ million but Ukraine hasn't had a proper census since 2000 and has had both substantial outflow of emigrants, and very low birth rates. Then 2014 happened where Ukraine lost Crimea and a large chunk of the Donbas, including the most populated areas of Donetsk and Lugansk. Something to the tune of 2.3 million people in Crimea and 4.5 million in the Donbas. We also know that war caused a massive wave of emigration largely by the economic hardships it was accompanied by. Yet we don't see Ukrainian population numbers dip by 7+ million post 2014. I understand that Ukraine considers their territory and therefore the population to be theirs (though they don't always act like it). But for the purposes of our discussion it matters far less what's legally Ukraine's population and far more what Ukraine can tax, employ, and mobilize. In fact we have quite the opposite, Crimeans and former DNR/LNR citizens paying Russia taxes and serving in the Russian armed forces. So realistically we have a Russia with a population somewhere north of 140 million, and a Ukraine with a population in 2022 of somewhere around ~32-35 million. But since 2022 Ukraine has lost areas with another substantial amount of population including the entire northern half of Lugansk region and approximately 2/3rds of Kherson and Zaporozhye region. Also all of southern Donetsk region. Some of the population fled in the wake of Russian occupation, but much did not, and some of those who fled returned aftewards (handing out free housing in Mariupol' probably helped). We also have somewhere around 6-7 million Ukrainians as refugees in the EU right now. We also have nonrefugee Ukrainian immigrants in the EU, and the US, and also Russia, and Brazil, China, UAE, wherever else educated professionals could find jobs and leave to, to escape the war and the failing economy. If the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government today has 25 million people living in it, that's quite the success. I suspect the number is lower. Russia's population advantage is something like 6:1 and growing, as Ukraine continues to lose both population and territory.
The F-16s not being able to compete was not a Russian declaration. It was from an excerpt from an official of the Ukranian airforce. Regarding weather conditions, I think its more of the fact, that it causes poorer ISR from drones than the jets being able to fly. The Ukr front is huge, no point blindly tossing bombs.
As for golf carts and motorcycles and even more hilarious electric sccoties, its more an indication of the current level of small drone war fare and mining. Russian assaults with motorcycles and electric scooties are harder to hit with drones and when hit, cause less causalties.if I have to choose between cramping 20 men into a MTLB thats going to get obliterated from one FPV or 20 men on 20 electric scooties, I will go with the scooties.
I think terrain is a key feature. There are places you can ride electric scooters and places you can't, where you need that armored tractor. What there aren't, are places where you can ride an up-armored GAZ but can't ride an MT-LB. It's why there's a notable difference between motorcycles and ATVs being used, vs regular light trucks and pickups.
www.reuters.com
