The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Bob53]

I am sorry but this is the single most non credible rumour I have heard in a while. Capture Koreans? lol. Why bother. The NK troops are in the Kirsk sector and fighting at the front. Some will be captured, it is inevitable.

Because it’s great propagand.

 

[Bob53]

You don’t have to agree with it, but this what is happening. Bikes, scooters, ATVs are not used due to shortage of equipment (which exists). Ukrainians do the same, we just hardly ever hear about it because, well, for the most part, they hardly ever attack. This isn’t a new tactic either and has been around for a long while now. Ukraine implemented it during their offensive in 2023 as well, though I would probably find it difficult to find videos from back then. They also did the same thing with small groups on foot without heavy equipment support that Russians do and what the social media crowd calls the “meat waves”.

(Edit: here is a freshly posted mechanized assault by the Russian forces, possibly in the same area (or the vicinity) of the modified Bukhanka “assault”: x.com)


While not necessarily likely, it wouldn’t be that farfetched considering other things Ukraine did for PR campaigns.



He other day I read that they are being interrogated using South Koreans. There was also a report that South Koreans were planning to offer them to defect. Whether the latter is true or not, I don’t know, but definitely believable.

The idea that the Russians send troops on motorbikes, scooters or golf carts because it’s a better way to wage modern war just does not seem plausible to me. sounds like spin. And that video above from feanor sort of demonstrates why.

a question though…can those mines be detonated by rifle fire?

 

[KipPotapych]

^ You should read what Ukrainians say about it. Analysts too. Also, what’s his name sarge from Saving Private Ryan movie, something along the lines of a few soldiers is an opportunity, while one is a waste of ammunition. Like I said, both sides do it for the same reason.

Modern is a not of stretch, I would say.

I am sure some mines can be detonated (and are) by rifle fire. I saw a few videos showing just that. However, hardly any have the luxury of taking the time. Everything happens fast, otherwise you are dead or mutilated. Hence, bikes, ATVs, etc.

 

[Feanor]

It appears Toretsk is now done. The village of Krymskoe, a de-facto suburb remains contested, but Toretsk proper has fallen. However the road forward here is not clear for further Russian actions. There are still Ukrainian forces in many villages around Toretsk. I suspect we're going to see quite a bit more fighting in the area, before Russia can push out of Toretsk northward or westward. Near Pokrovsk the road west out of the conurbation is cut between Kotlino and Udachnoe along a wide area, with the refuse mound south overlooking it. However Russia needs to cut the E-50 and at least approach the northern routes out of the city to place them within relatively easy drone range before Ukraine starts to have logistical issues.

Meanwhile here's an interesting piece about the war from Big Serge. I think this indicates the direction of the war for Ukraine.

Total Kievan Debellation

The Russo-Ukrainian War: Year 3

bigserge.substack.com

 

[KipPotapych]

An excellent short thread on X amplifying the strategic significance of Pokrovsk for Ukraine: x.com

For those without an X account (I tried the unroll thing, but it only provides chunks of the posts, so not very useful), here are the briefs:

- Pokrovsk produces most of the coking coal in Ukraine crucial in steel production (separate note, completely unrelated but interesting - the UK shut down one of the big boys today that used coking coal, by the way - a historic event, really);
- currently, the main issue is a severe shortage of electricity expected in the winter and the rates are expected to rise by 20% for the metallurgy sector;
- the metallurgical plants are now operating at 65-75% capacity (the figure remains unchanged from 2023 to 2024);
- when Pokrovsk falls, the plan is to purchase coke from Poland and the US (West Virginia, Virginia, and Kentucky - huge and much needed boost to the economy in those states);
- clear consequences are reduced production of steel and increase in manufacturing costs, which is a blow to the Ukrainian economy overall, but their MIC in particular.

Perhaps, this explains the reports of mines still operating in Pokrovsk and kind of late evacuation of the personnel and supporting staff, which is thousand of people?

Quoting myself for continuation and the info in the previous post. Now, four months after I made the post quoted above, Ukraine had finally shut down the coking coal mine near Pokrovsk, in Udachne. According to Deepstate, the Russian troops are now actually in Udachne (the leftmost town on the map; Pokrovsk is in the right top corner):



This is another good short article talking about the significance of the coking plant and provides some numbers and the effect of the closure on the Ukrainian steel production and economy:

Pokrovsk Coke Plant - Economic Impact and Tactical Considerations

The recent halt of operations at the Pokrovsk coking coal mine in Donetsk Oblast marks a critical juncture for Ukraine’s metallurgical industry and economy.

rochanconsulting.substack.com

From the same thread: the article also talks about the Ukrainian troop casualties on the frontline and beyond:

View attachment 51765

A couple of things here. One is, how much “earlier this year” are we talking about? And two, I would think it is safe to assume that the number of permanently departed Russians is likely significantly below 200,000 because the wounded to killed ratio is not at all convincing (almost as if two numbers were taken form two different estimates). But we also discussed that extensively previously with various citations, as well as simple discussion, etc.

A couple of excerpts from a recent Economist article:

View attachment 51804

Again quoting myself here for the purpose of information. Both posts are from September with 9 days difference between them. In the first, the claim is made that there are 2 wounded Russian soldiers for each one that was killed. As discussed previously, not very believable ratio, but the article mentions as “high as”, according to western intel or whatever it was. In the second, this ratio is more reasonable, for every soldier killed, there are 4.3 wounded, which is very close (likely nearly identical in reality) to the Ukrainian numbers, also cited.

The reason I bring it back is this info published about the North Korean troops, citing South Korean government:

Around 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed and 2,700 wounded so far in the fight against Ukraine, the South Korean government in Seoul said on Monday.

North Korean troops are far from ‘cannon fodder,’ Ukrainian soldiers say

Zelenskyy offers prisoner exchange if Kim Jong Un helps with the return of Ukrainian prisoners from Russia.

www.politico.eu

They are suggesting that there are as many as 9 wounded for every one killed. Something is off somewhere, clearly. Or is it some tactics they use that are different from Russians and Ukrainians? Something else? This is especially suspicious due to the following (from the same article):

“The enemy does not surrender. They eliminate themselves according to the same scheme, a grenade near the head, and go. Those who remain on the battlefield are doused with flammable liquid and burned,” Bondar said in a post on Facebook on Sunday.

Someone is clearly off in their estimates.

@John Fedup, I haven’t cited any sources in my previous post (apologies), but this article also suggests that it is the South Korean intel that is questioning these captured fellas:

The two North Korean fighters captured by Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region on Saturday were taken to Kyiv for medical treatment. The soldiers speak neither English nor Russian, so Ukrainian special services are working with the South Korean spy agency to communicate with them.

The article also confirms what the Ukrainian soldier I cited previously said:

Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk describe North Koreans — previously dubbed “cannon fodder” that will “defect as soon as they get to fight” — as highly skilled, fearless and motivated infantry.

“They have been blowing themselves up when they see capture is in sight,” Lieutenant Colonel Yaroslav Chepurnyi, a spokesman of the Ukrainian army, told POLITICO on Monday.[…]

Ukrainian soldiers describe the North Korean soldiers as being very far from inexperienced cannon fodder.

“They are young, motivated, physically fit, brave, and good at using small arms. They are also disciplined. They have everything you need for a good infantryman,” Chepurnyi said.

Yuriy Bondar, a Ukrainian soldier with the 80th separate airborne assault brigade, said North Korean soldiers have extremely good physical training and have stable morale.[…]

Bondar also confirmed that the North Koreans possess an extremely high level of mastery of small arms, successfully shooting down “a surprising number” of Ukrainian drones.

“They demonstrate psychological resilience. Imagine, one runs and attracts attention and the other from an ambush shoots down a drone with aimed fire,” Bondar said, claiming that underestimation of the enemy will always lead to a defeat.

“As one commander said, compared to the soldiers of the DPRK, Wagner mercenaries circa 2022 are just children. And I believe him,” Bondar said.


Ukraine keeps transferring specialists from various places to the infantry. The following thread talks about the most recent reports of the engineering and technical personnel from the UAF to be transferred to infantry. 5,000 are (were?) expected to be transferred. A no joke number, surely. In light of public outcry, Zelensky in his address said he ordered UAF commander not to transfer personnel to the infantry. A bunch of sources cited in this thread:

x.com

x.com

Russian Baza agency released a transcript from the black boxes of the downed Azeri flight, which were decoded and returned to Kazakhstan earlier today:

Расшифровка переговоров пилотов разбившегося самолёта AZAL с диспетчерами

«База» публикует полную расшифровку переговоров пилотов разбившегося самолёта AZAL с диспетчерами. Из неё следует, что все решения не садиться в Грозном, не лететь в Махачкалу, а затем следовать обратно в Баку — и в результате лететь в Актау — экипаж «Азербайджанских авиалиний» принимал самостоятель

baza.io

Whether the transcript is legit or not I do not know. If it is, it is pretty clear that the Russians did not make up the birds theory, as well as the oxygen tanks that may have exploded on board. It is also clear that the pilots were deliberating between Grozny, Minvody, and Makhachkala airports but chose to fly back to Baku and opted for Aktau in the end. It seems, when the missile hit, no one understood what really happened. The pilot reported that they were hit by a bird and that something (“two seats”) exploded. This is at 8:16:05 mark. Later, at 8:52:46 mark, the pilot explained that the oxygen tank exploded, he thinks, and there is not enough oxygen in the fuselage, passengers were passing out, so they needed to decent to a lower altitude (6,000 m should be fine he says), which they were permitted.

The GPS issue was first reported by pilots in the very beginning, on the approach, before the first landing attempt. Time mark is 7:36:57. Their GPS was not working at all. So there was no some extraordinary attempt to “jam the plane into a crash over the sea” or something sinister. Provided the transcript is legit, of course. They talked to Grozny dispatch, Rostov, and Aktau in the transcript provided.

Just a cluster-ef of a situation and someone somewhere “pushed the button”, the act that led to the catastrophic results.

On the subject, today a Russian officer was sentenced to three years in prison for shooting down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter during a supposedly Ukrainian air raid on Crimea on October 18, 2023.

Халатность проявилась ракетой

Офицера посадили за вертолет, сбитый вместо дрона над Крымом

www.kommersant.ru

I wonder if anything will happen here with the Azeri flight. I do not believe anyone was charged with anything yet, not that I have seen.

Both of the last two links cited are in Russian, so you will have to use some kind of translate.

 

[KipPotapych]

Re Russian equipment losses, a fresh post by Janovsky







Source: x.com

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainian soldiers describe the North Korean soldiers as being very far from inexperienced cannon fodder.

A few weeks or months ago, it was reported that North Korea had sent their elite troops. That makes sens because if Kim Jun Un wants to be respected and get something from Putin, his soldiers should show results on the battle field.
Then, some Russian soldiers were quoted as saying that these soldiers were weak, small and didn't look like good fighters. I think it was a scornful xenophobic reaction, and based on how they looked like. Then sone video showed them (allegedly without any proof whatsoever) walking slowly across open fields. This didn't seem professional.
Yet, they were still elite soldier from the DPRK. Probably much better than new Russian recruits.

Near Pokrovsk the road west out of the conurbation is cut between Kotlino and Udachnoe along a wide area, with the refuse mound south overlooking it.

According to Heinrich Torsten, Russians have taken a position on the crossroad between Malinivka and Nova Poltavka, on the road between Pokrovsk and Chaisv Yar.
See the Russian Saliant over the village of Baranivka.
The main south-west north-east loigistical route is either cut or under close fire.
<== Click to enlarge the map.

 

[Feanor]

A few weeks or months ago, it was reported that North Korea had sent their elite troops. That makes sens because if Kim Jun Un wants to be respected and get something from Putin, his soldiers should show results on the battle field.
Then, some Russian soldiers were quoted as saying that these soldiers were weak, small and didn't look like good fighters. I think it was a scornful xenophobic reaction, and based on how they looked like. Then sone video showed them (allegedly without any proof whatsoever) walking slowly across open fields. This didn't seem professional.
Yet, they were still elite soldier from the DPRK. Probably much better than new Russian recruits.


According to Heinrich Torsten, Russians have taken a position on the crossroad between Malinivka and Nova Poltavka, on the road between Pokrovsk and Chaisv Yar.
See the Russian Saliant over the village of Baranivka.
The main south-west north-east loigistical route is either cut or under close fire.
View attachment 52220<== Click to enlarge the map.View attachment 52219

I'm curious if that's correct. Russian forces entered that area twice, but were apparently repulsed, or failed to secure it. Per Suriyakmaps they're currently south of there, and the area is no-man's land. Per Kalibrated Russia has it. On a side note, I was referring to the situation west of Pokrovsk.

Also I don't think either of these roads (it's technically the same road passing through the town), was being used as a supply route for some time now. There are other roads in and out of the area, and they've been in easy drone range for a while. With good alternatives available, it wouldn't make sense. I think the real problems for the Pokrovsk area garrison will begin when the roads west and north-west start coming under easy drone strike. And cutting those roads physically will be the end of the fight. And consider just how far east of Mirnograd this crossroad is. I think we're going to see a continuing slow push westward and northward in the Udachnoe and Kotlin areas, while in the east I suspect Russian forces push to the west with only some northward movement. It's why I think we're looking at many more months of this battle.

 

[KipPotapych]

A few weeks or months ago, it was reported that North Korea had sent their elite troops. That makes sens because if Kim Jun Un wants to be respected and get something from Putin, his soldiers should show results on the battle field.
Then, some Russian soldiers were quoted as saying that these soldiers were weak, small and didn't look like good fighters. I think it was a scornful xenophobic reaction, and based on how they looked like. Then sone video showed them (allegedly without any proof whatsoever) walking slowly across open fields. This didn't seem professional.
Yet, they were still elite soldier from the DPRK. Probably much better than new Russian recruits.

Whether they are elite or not remains to be a open question. I have seen claims going both ways from the Ukrainian and western sources. I would think these are professional well trained troops, regardless of their “elite” or otherwise status. Their representation of an average NK soldier remains to be questionable, in my opinion, and it could go either way.

I have not seen Russians claiming weakness and the like about North Koreans (but I do not follow that as closely anymore). In regard to xenophobia, they (Russians) serve together with troops, who are also “Russians”, from Buryatiya, Chukotka, Caucasus, you name it, and those folks look all kinds of ways different from the “Russians” one expects to see on an average day. I don’t think this is it. What I did see, however, was the Ukrainians and the “fans” blasting these fellas in all kinds of negative way: cannon fodder, worse than orcs, almost neanderthals, etc.

“Walking slowly over open fields” and “meat waves” and the like… Here is a good short read on the subject, which was posted in light of a “newly released” hype video (in reality it was already released back in December or even November) of the “meat waves”, as reported by the “fans”:

Thread by @Black_BirdGroup on Thread Reader App

@Black_BirdGroup: Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread Why does our @J_JHelin keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"? Let’s dive i...…

threadreaderapp.com

Velyka Novosilka seems to be in big trouble and it worsens by the day over the past week or two. Ukrainians have lost Vremivka, which may be an indicator of the “days numbered” for Velyka Novosilka:



Source: x.com


Russians took control of the small village of Tykhe east of Vovchansk. It’s a very small village (Wikipedia says a population of 160), it may mean nothing, but may indicate a change of strategy on otherwise stable part of the frontline.



Source is the same as above.


Russians attempted a mechanized assault at the border with Sumy and it was reportedly repelled, a few vehicles destroyed. For the life of me, I cannot find the source I saved earlier. But it happened, haha. Will update if I locate the link (doubt it is a secret though and those following probably saw all about it).


An interesting thing about equipment losses in the Pokrovsk direction. It seems not all that long ago the ratio was 5 Russian pieces of equipment to 1 Ukrainian loss, according to the tracker with the X handle Naalsio26. The difference has been shrinking and it is now about 3.6 to 1 or there about and reaching a reasonable “normal” ratio of the offence/defense type of thing. His last report from earlier today, showing the additions since the last update and the totals:



Source: x.com

A video showing a Russian evacuation plane filled from top to bottom with critically wounded troops. The poster says that these are the ones that can neither be treated in the filed nor in DNR. I am assuming these guys in critical condition are being transported to better/more capable medical facilities in Russia. The poster suggests that 2 out of ten die during the relocation.

НЕВЗОРОВ

Это - внутренности русского эвакуационного ИЛа, который под завязку забивают самыми тяжелыми, теми с кем даже не связывается ни военно-полевая, ни примитивная ДНРовская медицина. Во время погрузок-разгрузок и перелетов, как правило умирают 2 из 10. Невзоров @nevzorovtv

t.me

Same video on X: x.com


Imagine all the fiberoptic wire from the “wire drones” being all over the place. While the stuff is pretty brittle when bent, it has some good tension strength and must be devastating for the wildlife, etc (when that becomes a concern again, of course). A video of the wire from a few drones laid basically side by side:

x.com

x.com

Edit: Velyka Novosilka situations is deteriorating further:



Source: x.com

 

[Fredled]

Deep Strikes:
Ukraine hit fuel depots one more time inside Russia on friday night. Here in Uzlovaya, Tula region.
(Ukrinform wrote "saturday night. But this is an error of translation because saturday night will be this evening, at the time of writing)

At least ten accurate drone attacks took place on an oil depot in the Tula region on the night of January 18. The enemy facility was hit thanks to the work of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine operators and Ukrainian-made drones

link
An eyewitness filmed the fire. If I understood correctly he said that 8 drones hit the facility.
civil smartphone video

a fuel tank caught fire at one of the region's enterprises. Fire brigades are working.
....
A fuel and lubricants tank caught fire at one of the enterprises in the region. Firefighters are at the scene. According to tentative reports, there are no casualties.

Ukrainians also attacked other facilities on the same night. Result of these attacks are not reported.

46 drones were shot down over the country's territory on the night of January 18. In particular, 18 drones were allegedly downed over Bryansk region, 11 over Kursk region, seven over Kaluga region, five over Tula region, three over Belgorod region, and two more over Voronezh region

_________________

Tortesk:
On the 14th of January, when all the media and various footage confirmed the fall of Toresk (or at least 90% of it), the Ukrainian DoD still denied it. I wonder if 4 days later, the situation has changed so that they still can claim control over part of the city or that they have changed their mind.

We are surprised to see reports from some journalists, including foreign ones, that 90% of Toretsk town is allegedly captured, almost the entire town, and that Ukrainian troops do not control it. This is not true. Despite the challenging situation in the town and the extent of destruction, there are still battles going on, and active resistance to the enemy continues. Consequently, we cannot confirm the information disseminated on social media. We are calling for not demotivating those resisting the invaders and causing them significant losses

link
_________________
Russian tanks depletion:

The use of armoured vehicles and tanks in our areas has been greatly reduced. Tanks are no longer used as breakthrough vehicles or even as fire support vehicles, but rather as transport, so the picture of the entire battle has completely changed in two years.

The Russians have run out of modern tanks, and it's no secret. They are left with third-rate defects. Even the Soviet reserve, which was aimed at a war with the entire NATO, has been very much exhausted,

link
It's interesting that the Ukrainian said that they use tanks and other armoured vehicles as transport, I understand far from enemy fire. It contradicts what was said before here, on this forum. That armoured vehicles were used for transport earlier, but not anymore because of lack of these vehicles.

I think it's possible that Russian commanders on the front line don't send tanks and other armoured vehicles in assault as much as before, if at all, in order to limit their losses. So that they can claim that losses in armoured vehicles and tanks have been greatly reduced.
_________________
German Howitzer:
Ukraine has become the first user of the new RCH 155 wheeled howitzer

the Ukrainian Army will receive the RCH 155 even earlier than the German army.

Germans are using Ukraine as a real life test facility for their new weapons.
The new IRIS-T variant was also used in Ukraine before the Wehrmacht had even received it.
Unlike Americans, German are not afraid of unwanted technology transfer to the enemy or other misuse.
_________________

Dilomatic Front:
Slovakia:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hosted an increasingly popular Slovak opposition leader as Kyiv remains locked in a spat with the country’s premier over gas transit.

"Progressive Slovakia" leader Michal Simecka, whose party recently surpassed that of Prime Minister Robert Fico in opinion polls, voiced support for Ukraine’s European Union membership, which he said was “crucial” to Slovakia’s interests.
....
Zelenskiy had invited Fico, who visited Moscow to discuss energy with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, for talks in the Ukrainian capital on Friday. But the Slovak didn’t come, stating that an alternative date is being sought. That left an opening for Simecka to show his solidarity with Kyiv.

We were ready to receive the leader of our friends, of the Slovak people,... and another leader came (Simecka).

I'm proposing to meet with Zelenskiy on Tuesday in Davos

I cannot plan anything with Fico because may go to Davos but end up somewhere in Sochi.
We don’t know who buys his tickets, as he constantly misses his destinations.

link

A day before, in an interview with journalists from Polish media outlets:

The leaders of Slovakia are playing a very dangerous game. They will continue to do so until the war reaches their own homes

One must "understand where the evil lies and where it does not.

Murderers like Putin cannot be forgiven.

Fico did not forgive his attacker. All world leaders condemned the attack.
Putin is the same – he uses others to shoot at living people,

link

French/UK troops deployment:

This initiative belongs to French President Emmanuel Macron, and I think you saw that a few days ago, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom met with President Macron, and they discussed this matter.

I would not like to go into the details today. These consultations are ongoing. I can confirm that such negotiations are continuing, and it is undoubtedly very important that they may become part of certain security guarantees

link
It seems that the idea is discussed more and more seriously. But it will be after a ceasefire is agreed. Apparently.

Zelensky reiterates the refusal to reduce Ukrainian's army force in any peace agreement with Russia.

This is the kind of Ukraine that can defend its independence and protect its people. It contains all this, including a package of weapons to strengthen us on the battlefield, taking into account our army, not to reduce it by several times, as the enemy wants. In any diplomacy, defence is the most important issue for us (which includes - ed.) maintaining the size of the army we have today

But I think it's obvious.
link

 

[Fredled]

Some selected interesting facts, comments and reports from Ukrainform:

Lack of brigade commanders:

Why is it a complex process? Because we now have so many brigades that, in principle, there is a problem with finding trained commanders who could lead a brigade.

link
While at the same time: The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) have arrested three senior officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for failing to provide adequate protection to Kharkiv region during the Russian military offensive in May 2024.
I think they are talking about Vovchansk:

The individuals in question are a brigadier general who held the position of commander of the Kharkiv Operational-Tactical Group (OTG), a lieutenant general who was the commander of the 125th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and a colonel who previously led the 415th Battalion of this unit.

The investigation revealed that the suspects failed to prepare the defense of the border areas of Kharkiv region and lost control during the repeated Russian military advance on Kharkiv. They also violated the military regulations when preparing defense lines in the areas of responsibility of military units and subdivisions of the OTG. The crimes committed by the high-ranking officers were documented with the assistance of Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi.

During the battle, the accused did not use the full range of possible measures to repel and halt the enemy's advance. Their actions led to the capture of parts of Kharkiv region, where intense fighting is currently ongoing.

On highly qualified air force mechanics being sent to the front line as expendable:

I have an order prohibiting the transfer of highly qualified personnel who have undergone training and specialize in aircraft maintenance. Clearly, these are specialists on whom money has been spent, who have gained experience, and who are practically irreplaceable.

We must raise an adequate number of personnel in our mechanized brigades, and the needs and capabilities of mobilization, unfortunately, are not covering this need.
Measures are currently underway to reduce the logistical component, the staffing of headquarters, support and maintenance.

The headquarters are aware of these tasks, have run calculations, and of course our task is to prevent the problem before it arises, to react immediately if it does, that’s where someone from the category I named ends up at the front.

Why Ukraine have to launch counter offensives:

it is impossible to win a war exclusively on a defensive.
Definitely not. No matter how long you defend, you will eventually retreat. And we are forced to hold our defense lines and build up forces, in fact, along the entire frontline.

link

On Koreans:

"They fight in line with Soviet tactics, they operate in platoons, companies. They take advantage of their numbers. War is different now, in today's conditions, there’s drone dominance, sides fight in small groups, assault groups on a defensive, and when someone attacks from several directions, there is a platoon, a platoon of up to 100 people, and sometimes even more soldiers attacking, and they are quite brave, too. So, of course, this is an issue. We even lack munitions,"

link

On Russian tactics:

Commanders order their unarmed, but well-armored fighters, to try to advance as close as possible to Ukrainian positions.

"The main objective of the ‘mule’ is to reach the positions of Ukraine’s Defense Forces in order to leave ammunition, mines, or radios there for further use by assault groups. Such soldiers are considered ‘expendables’, so they are not even given any weapons.

Ukraine’s defenders note that the effectiveness of such tactics is highly dubious, especially considering the modern-day capabilities of drones, which were not available in such numbers during the battles with the Wagnerites. However, this does not stop the Russian command from sparing their soldiers as expendables.

link

Ukraine claims to have set a fire on a communication tower near Krasnodar.

Cathedral damaged during Russian striks on Zaporyzhia

Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) detained a law enforcement officer who facilitated the illegal crossing of conscription-age men into Romania for a fee of EUR 20,000.

_______________________
Toresk:
The Ukrainian military finaly admits that Toresk is iccupied, yet adds that the ennemy there is under fire pressure.

A significant part of Toretsk is controlled by the enemy, a significant area of Toretsk is under our fire pressure.

The enemy tactics involve small assault groups and mining territory as we record enemy personnel moving around Toretsk deploying anti-personnel mines.

The tactic of small group assaults. Unfortunately, brings them gains, because these small assault groups can be easily replenished as the enemy enjoys manpower superiority.

Such situation prevails not only in the said operational zone but along the entire frontline in Ukraine.
he Russians enemy was also running offensive missions in the Siversk direction. The invaders suffered serious casualties so now they are pulling in fresh troops.

Currently, the enemy has reduced the use of armored support in the Luhansk Grouping’s sector, while the number of other vehicles employed remains the same, including motorcycles, buggies, quad bikes, and Soviet-era military vans in large numbers. In particular, up to 70 enemy motorcycles were hit just this week.

link

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Lack of brigade commanders

Apparently now reportedly brigades can only be created via presidential approval, so we won't be seeing a new brigade every week, and that means a lack of commanders is not going to be a problem.

 

[rsemmes]

The always optimistic Kalibrate gives V-Novosilka as abandoned, unconfirmed; I don't think taken would be the right word.

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Two days ago.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250121-04.jpg

Ukraine hold the factory... and lost the town. Chasiv Iar is a lesson to be re-learned time and again.

Zelensky says that he needs a NATO army of occupation of (a minimum of) 200.000 men.

Zelenskyy says Russia-Ukraine peace deal would require 200,000 allied troops

Ukrainian president tells Davos that Europe must establish itself as an ‘indispensable’ player on the global stage

www.theguardian.com

He doesn't mention what NATO needs or wants.

 

[Feanor]

The always optimistic Kalibrate gives V-Novosilka as abandoned, unconfirmed; I don't think taken would be the right word.

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Two days ago.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250121-04.jpg

He's mistaken. Fighting is ongoing inside Velikaya Novoselka, Ukraine has not abandoned it yet. Exiting the village is actually pretty difficult so it's possible they haven't abandoned it because they're having a hard time getting out.

Ukraine hold the factory... and lost the town. Chasiv Iar is a lesson to be re-learned time and again.

I'm not sure I agree here. Chasov Yar is an example of a very successful and very tenacious defense by Ukrainian forces. They're going to lose the town eventually, but given how small the town is, and given that its taken almost a year (and the town still hasn't fallen) it's not the place where Ukraine needs to be concerned. The real problem is the Donetsk axis.

 

[Bob53]

North Korea sending more troops and equipment to Russia.

More North Korean Artillery Troops Heading To Russia: Ukraine Intel Chief

The North Korean reinforcements will include gun and rocket artillery units and their hardware, as well as short-range ballistic missile capabilities.

www.twz.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel and Ukraine reportedly in talks about transferring trophies seized in Lebanon. Context if you haven't followed the ground war in Lebanon:
Hezbollah chose to retreat with minimal resistance as the IDF advanced into 1-3 lines of villages in Lebanon. There the IDF found massive amounts of well built infrastructure and a substantial amount of weaponry. There was arguably more effort done demolishing infrastructure and retrieving arms than actual fighting.
Not all of it is viable for transfer, but it can be used to kit a significant amount of Ukrainian troops with little to no extra effort.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1881819880955224165

The IDF listed the types of weapons they seized in Lebanon, a total of 85,000 pieces.
IDF site

• 6,840 launchers and munitions for RPGs and ATGMs.
• 9,000 explosive devices.
• 60,800 communication and electronic devices.
• 2,250 indirect fire munitions.
• 2,700 small arms.
• 2,860 additional pieces of weaponry.
• 300 observation devices.
• 60 anti aircraft missiles.
• 20 vehicles.

 

[rsemmes]

I'm not sure I agree here. Chasov Yar is an example of a very successful and very tenacious defense by Ukrainian forces. They're going to lose the town eventually, but given how small the town is, and given that its taken almost a year (and the town still hasn't fallen) it's not the place where Ukraine needs to be concerned. The real problem is the Donetsk axis.

And probably a costly defence too...
It is better to defend in a town than in the open, but constructing lines of defence behind that city (if you have troops and means for that, like a 150s bde) would had been a better use of that defence and time. This is a slow war, but my impression is that Ukraine is trying to hold every town for too long.
I think that preparing the terrain for defence or counterattacking to hold the Oskil would had been a better use of scarce resources. That "incursion" across the Oskil seems to be an issue now; again, lack of troops. Ukrainian overconfidence about been able to hold the river line? That is what I read was the Kursk affair from the Russian side, lack of troops, overconfidence and understimating what the enemy can throw at you

 

[T.C.P]

Israel and Ukraine reportedly in talks about transferring trophies seized in Lebanon. Context if you haven't followed the ground war in Lebanon:
Hezbollah chose to retreat with minimal resistance as the IDF advanced into 1-3 lines of villages in Lebanon. There the IDF found massive amounts of well built infrastructure and a substantial amount of weaponry. There was arguably more effort done demolishing infrastructure and retrieving arms than actual fighting.
Not all of it is viable for transfer, but it can be used to kit a significant amount of Ukrainian troops with little to no extra effort.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1881819880955224165

The IDF listed the types of weapons they seized in Lebanon, a total of 85,000 pieces.
IDF site

• 6,840 launchers and munitions for RPGs and ATGMs.
• 9,000 explosive devices.
• 60,800 communication and electronic devices.
• 2,250 indirect fire munitions.
• 2,700 small arms.
• 2,860 additional pieces of weaponry.
• 300 observation devices.
• 60 anti aircraft missiles.
• 20 vehicles.

Does the ATGM list include the Iranian Spike copies Hezbollah uses? The almas I think the name was.

Also for the anti aircraft missiles, did Israel capture some of those 358 loitering sams? They would be pretty good against Shaheds and the older cruise missiles.

 

[Feanor]

And probably a costly defence too...
It is better to defend in a town than in the open, but constructing lines of defence behind that city (if you have troops and means for that, like a 150s bde) would had been a better use of that defence and time. This is a slow war, but my impression is that Ukraine is trying to hold every town for too long.
I think that preparing the terrain for defence or counterattacking to hold the Oskil would had been a better use of scarce resources. That "incursion" across the Oskil seems to be an issue now; again, lack of troops. Ukrainian overconfidence about been able to hold the river line? That is what I read was the Kursk affair from the Russian side, lack of troops, overconfidence and understimating what the enemy can throw at you

Chasov Yar is on a high ground, it's downhill from there. I don't think the decision to stubbornly defend Chasov Yar is a bad one. I think far more worthy of criticism is the fact that Ukrainian command repeatedly doesn't order troops to withdraw when the threat of encirclement becomes imminent, instead keeping them there until the last moment so they can tell political leadership that they're still fighting for the locale. We saw this in Avdeevka, Kurakhovo, many others, and currently in Velikaya Novoselka.

 

[tank3487]

And probably a costly defence too...
It is better to defend in a town than in the open, but constructing lines of defence behind that city (if you have troops and means for that, like a 150s bde) would had been a better use of that defence and time. This is a slow war, but my impression is that Ukraine is trying to hold every town for too long.

Chasov Yar is rare exception, it is dominating height in the area and it is downhill for huge area after that. If they lose it, they would be forced to retreat up to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area and would still be faced with unfavorable defense terrain. It is probably the most critical point if you want to hold what is left from Donbass under Ukrainian control.