The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

swerve

Super Moderator
Turkiye bought the design of M113 in order to make a few hundred for their own army. To this day they still maintain those M113 and more importantly, they retain the ability to make spare parts for it. They also developed upgrades for it. Just check out the FNSS website. If anyone want a more powerful engine, electrooptical sensors, remote controlled turret, and active defense system on the M113, FNSS can install them.
I know Turkey built a lot of (over 2000) ACV-15T, a version of the US AIFV, which was a development of the M113. FNSS said it went out of production in 2004, & sells upgrades. FNSS - ACV-15T1 CAPABILITY ENHANCEMENT & LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

This is the second update in recent weeks where we have reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks involving potential reserves deployed. If these reports are accurate, it's possible Ukraine is being forced to deploy reserves piece-meal to try and reverse multiple local failures. Making matters worse is that these reverasls seem to be temporary. Ukraine counter-attacked in Toretsk with some good effect but this good effect has been entirely overcome now. Ukrainian counter-attack at Noviy Komar and Shevchenko have also been overcome. Now we have a Ukrainian counter-attack near the Peschanoe salient and in Chasov Yar. It remains to be seen how this plays out. I've had a suspicion for a while that Ukraine will attempt a major counter-attack with the cover of F-16s, and all the recent kit they can accumulate. It will possibly be aimed to "negotiate from a position of strength". But each small effort that expends forces makes the eventual larger effort less likely to succeed. There's also the question of whether Russian can uncover the preparations.

Kursk area.

Russian forces generally continue to gain ground here, further shrinking Ukraine's perimeter. It doesn't seem likely Ukrainian forces will be fully ejected any time soon, but it seems unlikely the dynamic will dramatically change without large additional forces deployed. Specifically recent gains include a chunk of country-side north of Novoivanovka, the fields north of Russkoe Porechnoe, entering the first houses, and the villages of Nizhnyaya Parovaya and Nechaev. Russian forces also continuing their offensive along the Sumy border, south of Plekhovo, on both sides of the border. Meaning they've first entered Sumy region then expanded their area of control inside Sumy, though it's still very very small.


Russian forces in Plekhovo.


Some footage of Russian infantry on the move, the first link is footage from allegedly near Orlovka and Pogrebki, the second near Cherkassnoe Porechnoe.


A Ukrainian T-64BV hit near Kruglen'kaya, another near Novoivanovka catching fire and exploding, and a pair of CR-2s hit somewhere in Kursk area.


Russia hits a now increasingly rare Abrams in Kursk region.


A pair of Ukrainian buggies getting hit, Kursk region.


A Ukrainian BMP with infantry riding on top hit by a Russian drone.


A Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian wheeled howitzer, either a Bogdana or a Caesar, Sumy region.


Russian UAVs identify a Ukrainian staging area in Sumy region and Russian then strikes it with an Iskander. Note the strike is probably not enough to destroy the camp we saw.


Two abandoned, presumably knocked out, Bradley's near Novoivanovka, Kursk region. The village currently appears to be under Russian control but there has been heavy fighting with the area changing hands.


A destroyed Ukrainian CV90 in Kursk region.


There are reports of DPRK soldier sightings but they are fairly inconclusive. Russian sources claim DPRK forces are responsible for the recapture of Plekhovo. In the third link we have allegedly a conversation between a DPRK and Russian soldier, with a clear language barrier.


Ukrainian Bgbv-90 in the Kursk border area. This is an ARV on the CV90 chassis.


Kharkov area.

Allegedly a Ukrainian infantry team near Liptsi placing mines. A Russian UAV drops munitions on them.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces are expanding their foothold near Dvurechnoe by pushing into the village. So far their confirmed gains are modest. If Russia takes Dvurechnoe, Ukraine will have a substantial problem. What's interesting is that rybar casts doubt on the existence of this foothold.


Oskol front.

Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked recapturing the village of Zhivotovka and part of Kolesnikovka. Meanwhile Russian forces have entered Lozovaya, and captured some positions in the fields around it and north of Zeleniy Guy. Russian forces also continue to expand the thickness of the salient to the Oskol river. At this point it's probably more improtant to widen the salient then it is to physically hold the villages right on the river.


Near Torskoe Russian forces continue to advance southward in the fields east of Terny.


Russian D-30 operations footage in the Torskoe area.


Seversk area.

Russian drone strike hits a knocked out Kozak armored car.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have broken through from the north to the factory complex which was initially captured by Russian forces a Ukrainian counter-attack recaptured the northern half of the factory complex.


Russia's 98th VDV riding into battle near Chasov Yar. Note the anti-tank mine they're carrying on the vehicle for quick mining.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions in the ruins of Chasov Yar.


A destroyed Humvee with an interesting armored turret near Chasov Yar, obviously Ukrainian.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Toretsk area.

We have a good amount of clarity here now. Russia has reversed all of Ukraine's recent gains. Russia holds the large refuse mound, the mine complex, and the entire center of town. The secondary refuse mound is either in Ukrainian hands or contested. Russian forces have also started pushing into the northern side of town. The only major point left in Ukrainian hands is Krymskoe mine complex.


Some footage of the ruins of Toretsk.


Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces have faced a Ukrainian counter-attack at Shevchenko and have then resumed the offensive. Russian forces have cleared Pushkino, have full control of Shevchenko and Novotroitskoe. Russian forces contest Vozrozhdenie and Dachenskoe.


Footage, allegedly, of Ukraine's counter-attack at Shevchenko.


Russia hits a Caesar howitzer allegedly near Pokrovsk.


Ukrainian M113 hits mines near Pokrovsk, following which some of the occupants bail out.


Russian M-46 operations on the Pokrovsk axis.


Kurakhovo area.

Russian forces are pushing westward out of Starie Terny towards Shevchenko, an awkwardly named village not to be confused with the Shevchenko north of there, by Pokrovsk, which was recently captured by Russian forces. Also north of the reservoir Russian forces are now at the rail berm from Kurakhovo to Selidovo. Inside Kurakhovo almost all of the main residential areas are now under Russian control, as well as the government offices. The hospital complex and the industrial area are still in Ukrainian hands, which amounts to a little less then half of the town. In the area south of Kurakhovo Russian forces have pushed up to Zelenovka, south-west of Kurakhovo. The entire pocket around Annovka and Uspenovka is claimed under Russian control with unconfirmed reports of some surrounded Ukrainian forces still there. Russian forces also have Konstantinopol'skoe either contested or fully taken. Between Kurakhovo and the Sukhie Yaly river Russian forces now hold almost the entire road to Uspenovka.


With the collapse of the pocket south of Kurakhovo, Russian forces have entered the villages and are evacuating any remaining civilians. We've seen all kinds of vehicles used for this work, here we have what appears to be an AMN-590951 MRAP.


A knocked out Ukrainian M109 captured near Bogoyavlenka captured by Russian forces. It's a testament to the speed of Russia's advance that they're capturing knocked out vehicles. Typically Ukraine evacuates vehicles but recently first on the Pokrovsk axis and now around Ugledar this pattern has changed somewhat.


A destroyed Ukrainian M113 in Novoukrainka.


Russia's 238th Arty Bde with their D-74s, which they got to replace Msta-Bs.


Velikaya Novoselka area.

Russian forces have re-entered Noviy Komar. They're also continuing to capture ground south of Velikaya Novoselka. It's interesting that Russian forces are able to move in company-sized columns for the assault. This is in stark contrast to earlier this year when Ukraine would pummel such attacks with artillery and drones.


Russia hit a couple of crossings near Velikaya Novoselka. One is near Novoocherevataya.


Russian takes out a Ukrainian MaxxPro International near Velikaya Novoselka.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye.

During a recent IAEA visit their armored SUV got hit by a drone, presumably a Ukrainian one.


Black Sea/Crimea.

Some footage of a recent Ukrainian unmanned boat attack in the Kerch strait. They try to use machinegun fire against Russian aircraft. In turn we can see an Su-30SM using it's cannon against them.


Strikes.

Russia launched a massive wave of strikes across Ukraine. Unforunately specific footage is rare. We do know they hit a number of infrastructure targets, with a particular focus on western Ukraine, possibly intended to cut energy grid ties with the EU.


Russian strikes landing in Odessa.


Russian strikes in Ivano-Frankovsk area reported, allegedly hitting energy infrastructure.


Ukrainian air defenses intercept a Russian cruise missile. First the M2 fires, then it's intercepted allegdly by an IRIS-T.


Ukraine hit the MVD regiment in Grozniy in two separate incidents with UAVs. It's unclear why this unit garnered such attention.


Ukraine hit a fuel storage facility in Orlov region.


Ukraine hit the Taganrog airbase with ATACMS.


A Ukrainian UAV hit a residential house in Belgorod region, killing one child. Details are lacking.


Interesting bits.

Ukrainian Su-27 dropping gliding bombs on presumably Russian forces.


A closer look at how Ukraine indirect fires their AMX-10RCs. Note they have to use a separate artillery sight, they don't use the built-in sight on the vehicle.


We have apparently a confirmed loss of a Ukrainian Su-25, shortly after Ukraine showed off two Su-25s modified to carry Hammer gliding bombs. The aircraft belongs to the 299th Tactical Aviation Bde, with the pilot reported KIA.


Russian forces using a Giatsint-B that's missing it's wheels. Based on the damage around it it's likely it was the victim of counter-battery fire, and since it can't really be moved easily, it's likely it's being used until it gets hit again.


There are reports that Russian forces have started setting up drone lights to warn forces near the front line about enemy drone presence.


Russian forces have up-armored an ATS-59 armored tractor to carry troops, producing an ersatz-APC. If the armor is just the rubber sheeting, it will only stop smaller drones, but it's possible there is metal underneath. What Russian forces really need are more BMPs.


An interesting incident took place in Russia where someone, allegedly a paid Ukrainian agent, burned down an Su-27 at an airfield. Base security, especially in rear areas, continues to be a problem.


There are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine's newly trained 155th Mech Bde has sufferred from mass AWOL upon returning to Ukraine from their training in France.


We have reports that Ukraine has replaced their commander of the Donetsk sector swapping General Tarnavskiy in for General Lutsenko, possibly as a response to recent failures in the Pokrovsk area.


Ukraine has shown off another new long range munition called Ruta, again some sort of mix between a missile and a UAV.


A Ukrainian OSA frankensam refitted with R-73 AAMs on upside down fighter jet pylons.


Ukrainian forces experimenting with a GSh-23 autocannon on a Humvee.


A rare Ukrainian Tunguska with a fresh paintjob.


Ukraine's new BMP-1TS variant with a new turret.


An interesting Ukrainian MLRS using Grad tubes on a pickup truck, very reminiscent of what we've seen in recent Middle-Eastern wars.


Ukraine's 68th Jaeger Bde with their Leo-1, covered in K-1.


Ukrainain Strv-122 (Leo-2A5) with Ukraine's 21st Mech.


There are reports that Ukraine's 141st Infantry Bde got a batch of BMP-2s, suggesting it might be converted into a Mech Bde. On the flip side there are reports that the 150th series brigades are being stripped of armored vehicles.


Ukraine's 100th Mech with their YPR-765 with a new RCWS carrying a Mk. 19.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Pentagon now confirmed that the North Korean troops are participating in the fighting in Kursk.

IMG_8246.jpeg

Source: x.com

I like the bit about the “legitimate target”. Russians use the exact same script, haha. Is there anyone who thinks they (or any other party actively participating in war) wouldn’t be a “legitimate target”? I find it funny. Note that when the strikes into Russia were permitted (on the premise of the active participation of Koreans) and when Ukraine hit the “command post” allegedly killing some Korean troops and wounding some high rank officers, there was no such participation, except for the Ukrainian reports about Koreans fighting on all fronts (I cited those reports here previously).


The Russian advances over the river north of Kupiansk previously discussed are now confirmed by Deepstate as well. Must be something going on there.


The area controlled by Ukrainians in Kursk keeps shrinking, albeit slowly:

IMG_8248.jpeg

Illustrated on the right is what it looks like today, as per Deepstate: on the left, what it looked like a week ago. The image was taken from Rob Lee’s post on X: x.com


Lieutenant General Kirillov, who was the head of the Russian Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, was killed by a bomb explosion while exiting his apartment. His assistant was killed as well. The bomb was likely planted in the scooter parked next to the exit.



This is an interesting illustration of the Russian air defences coverage (S-300 in yellow and S-400 in red):

IMG_8244.jpeg

Source: x.com This fella from Japan has been working on it for a long while. The assumption is that the missiles used are with 200 km range for the S-400 units (48N6P) and 150km range for S-300 batteries (48N6).

The interesting observations are that none are marked for the Kaliningrad region (I could be mistaken, but I feel like there were reports long time ago about Russians pulling these assets from there to the other areas, ie war related stuff). There are also obvious gaps and weak spots. To the latter, the poster is questioning himself whether some batteries may have simply not been discovered yet.


Edit: a little more context about Kirillov being killed a few hours ago:

IMG_8250.jpeg

Source: x.com
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Toretsk area.

The only major point left in Ukrainian hands is Krymskoe mine complex.
Minor correction; Krymskoe is the suburb of Toretsk (probably used to be it's own village) where the mine complex is located. The actual name of the mine shaft is the Toretsk Mine Shaft (really creative naming there).

You forgot to mention that the Su-35 has longer range radar and missiles.
It strongly depends on the F-16 variant. For a while now I've speculated that Ukraine's F-16s might get radar upgrades prior to delivery. It's unclear if this has happened or not. For missiles, obviously the R-37M (RVV-BD) is a problem. But that's not the real issue here either.

When we don't know, we usually say: A combination of several factors. ;)
On of these factors could be the apparition of F16's circling in the area with AMRAAM's under their wings.
Or Ukrainians have hit a very important FAB storage site a few days or weeks ago and the shortage starts now. Russians don't save ammunition until there isn't any left LOL.
I don't think F-16s "circling" is a realistic scenario. Russian air defenses can still reach well into the airspace over the battlefield. Even Russian jets, and Russia has a distinct advantage in the sky, tend to fly low when closer to the front line. Ukrainian jets fly very low, pop up to drop munitions, and quickly escape. I think that if Ukraine attempted to use F-16s to contest the airspace our first clues would be lost jets from either side. Either lost F-16s in an unsuccessful attempt to engage or lost Russian jets to F-16s. I doubt we would have no other clue other than a reduction in Russian gliding bomb drops. And the harsh truth is Russia can trade fighter jets 1 for 1 with Ukraine more or less indefinitely. Russian domestic production of fighter jets is greater than the totals being supplied to Ukraine by the west. Also F-16 operations are substantially hampered by Russian strikes against airbases, Russia recently hit Starokonstantinov again (a base that may have been preparing for receiving F-16s).

If there were no shortage or other impediments, Russians would be able to drop as many FABs as they want while replenishing as much as they use.
Do you think that they have the air capacity to drop several times more FABs (with several times more bombers) in a short time than what they do now?
To me, it looks that they use the maximum capacity all the time...
I'm not sure what's not coming across. What I suggest is that Russia may have reduced current usage precisely for the purpose of accumulating some stockpile. In other words, they don't have the ability to drop several times more, and therefore in order to obtain said ability they are holding some munitions back now to be used later.

That's opinion oriented. many people including myself don't think that Russia would negotiate no matter what, and take any chance to point to some Ukrainian agression as a reason not to.
IMO, Ukrainians are hitting Russian anywhere they can and preferably where it's the easiest, without limiting their action in hope of an elusive Russian promise to negotiate.

Also IMO, as long as Ukrainians will fire at Russian troops inside or outside Russia, Putin will refuse to negotiate on the basis that Ukrainians are firing at Russian troops.
As long as there is no cease fire, all type of strikes are allowed. I don't think that there is a specific military action which would dicourage or encourage negotiations more than another.
That's interesting since earlier you seemed to agree that if Russia can get what they want by negotiating, they will negotiate.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
That's interesting since earlier you seemed to agree that if Russia can get what they want by negotiating, they will negotiate.
It was in the case they would not get everething they want. ;)

Feanor said:
I don't think F-16s "circling" is a realistic scenario.
Probably not. But Russians may be already scared by the idea that F16's could be there.

Feanor said:
What I suggest is that Russia may have reduced current usage precisely for the purpose of accumulating some stockpile.
Not only the ammunitions, but the planes should be available. Do you think they have enough bombers to scramble in order to increase the intensity?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It was in the case they would not get everething they want. ;)
I'm fairly confident Russia has a maximalist starting position, a compromise target, and a minimum line beyond which they won't agree to any peace. The question is where these lines are.

Probably not. But Russians may be already scared by the idea that F16's could be there.
To the point where there is a substantial decrease in gliding bombs that Russia drops from their own side of the front line, tens of kms away? Wishful thinking at best, self-delusion at worst. In the event that there are actual F-16s in the sky, this might happen but then we would see some sort of combat between them. In fact like I said I suspect the first evidence we will get will be downed jets.

Not only the ammunitions, but the planes should be available. Do you think they have enough bombers to scramble in order to increase the intensity?
This is definitely not the issue. A Russian de-facto mixed air regiment in Syria flew over 100 sorties per day on some days. Here Russia has hundreds of jets that can carry UMPK kits (Su-24/34/30SM/35S). Russian drops are typically two or four bombs per jet, so if we take an average of 3 bombs per jet, then we're looking at ~40 sorties per day to maintain current levels. The bottle neck is not availability of jets, it's availability of munitions.

EDIT: Interesting side note, there are still no distinct Russian attempts on Pokrovsk. After approaching the town from the south-east Russian forces are continuing to push westward and are at this point past the town itself. I suspect that Russian command knows it will be a tough fight and are ensuring their positions around the town are robust and well secured. It may be some time before we see a real Russian attempt on it.
 
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rsemmes

Member
It strongly depends on the F-16 variant. For a while now I've speculated that Ukraine's F-16s might get radar upgrades prior to delivery. It's unclear if this has happened or not. For missiles, obviously the R-37M (RVV-BD) is a problem. But that's not the real issue here either.
Yes, but, as you say, the "circling" seems to work only one way.
 

rsemmes

Member
I was talking about the killing.

On the other hand, someone (Russia, for example) could argue that he is procuring arms for Ukraine, so he is actively involve in the war; I don't think Kirilov was actually fighting. Zaluzhny was certainly involved in the war, is there any statute of limitations?
Zaluzhny is only an example, I find the "audacious" disgusting.
 

Redshift

Active Member
"In wake of audacious scooter-bomb assassination..."

I wonder if Russia killing the Ukrainian ambassador in London (a general) would deserve the "audacious" too.
Russia have killed quite a few people in the UK already, so they do have form.

Of course the big difference is that the UK, whilst supporting Ukraine, is a non combatant in the actual war itself. Not to mention that Ambassadors are not Generals.
 

rsemmes

Member
You mean "Russia has audaciously killed..."? Do you mean Zaluzhny is not a general?

I was talking about theindependent frontpage, so I was not talking about Russian media. I find the use of "audacious" disgusting.
Some people would find killing people in a terrorist attack disgusting. I am not talking about that either, but some people find certain terrorist attacks (or SMOs) not that disgusting. I am talking abut the use of "audacious" in this terrorist attack.
 

Redshift

Active Member
You mean "Russia has audaciously killed..."? Do you mean Zaluzhny is not a general?

I was talking about theindependent frontpage, so I was not talking about Russian media. I find the use of "audacious" disgusting.
Some people would find killing people in a terrorist attack disgusting. I am not talking about that either, but some people find certain terrorist attacks (or SMOs) not that disgusting. I am talking abut the use of "audacious" in this terrorist attack.
A terrorist attack wouldn't be targeted though, it wouldn't be aimed at an official but at the population in general, you know like all those missiles hitting power stations in Ukraine which are aimed at everyone.

Would you be ok if this was a shahed drone attack on the general in question?
 
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