vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Likely lack of indirect fire equipment and a limited main gun elevation.Why "erzats" artillery. Why can't it be normal artillery?
Likely lack of indirect fire equipment and a limited main gun elevation.Why "erzats" artillery. Why can't it be normal artillery?
Why is a army truck a erzats schoolbus when used to transport children? It simply isn't a schoolbus. This simply isn't a self-propelled howitzer. It's an armored recon vehicle with a gun and sights/FCS designed primarily for direct fire. The fact that you can indirect fire it doesn't make any more proper artillery then the Rapira anti-tank guns both sides for indirect fires, or the Russian use of tank fires on indirect with UAV support or Ukraine mounting KS-19 AAA on a truck and using them for indirect fire against ground targets. It's a substitute, a use of something that isn't meant to be the thing you're using it as. It doesn't make it ineffective (though it's typically substantially less effective than purpose-built systems). In this case the effect on target from a 105mm shell will be far less then it would be from a 155mm shell.Why "erzats" artillery. Why can't it be normal artillery?
If you look at the Duke Vandal drone the wire spool is just a cylinder under the drone. No idea on the range, but it doesn't look like something that would be difficult to transport. On the flip side there has been considerable commentary that it's a shorter range system. On a side note Ukraine is already imitating this system just not at the same scale. Currently we have some indications that Russia started using the Duke Vandal as early as March of this year, and yet they weren't really prominent in footage until August. So it would make sense that Ukraine would initially start using small quantities to get the design down and ramp up production. I suspect we will see similar use of them by Ukraine within the next 6-12 months.Wire guided drones are an effective way to avoid jamming. Russian advertised the use of optically wired drones with a range of 25km. This technology can be very effective for reconnaissance because it allows very high image quality and real time view seamlessly. However, single use, 25km optic wire is not possible in mass production for kamikaze drones which are used at a rate of 1000 units per day or more.
IMO, cheap, mass produced wire guided kamikaze drones have much shorter wires (a few km) else they wouldn't be so cheap.
Logistically it's also more cumbersome to carry one big coil for every drone. Unless they recoil the wire after each use (???).
Russians use this technology with success. I haven't read about Ukrainians using wire guided drones. Maybe they do. Maybe Ukrainian drones have better anti-jamming protection while Russian EW is less effective, so they don't need wire guided drones as much as Russians do. If they needed, Ukrainians could imitate the technology very quickly.
I don't have evidence of that. Just speculating.
It has been mentioned that the limited detection arc is one reason why APS have been less than successful in dealing with drones and why they are still be penerated.I thought the idea that drone could be rested in an area on standby then activated by an operator of a different drone when a target was approaching was interesting my other thoughts were neither side in this war have a system like Trophy and would this system defeat such a threat?
Yes, one of the large mounds and the smaller mound directly north of it, plus some of the neighborhood there are in Russian hands.Can we confirm one Toretsk's mound in Russian hands or not even now?
(Kalibrated is always optimistic, no counterattack in Novii Komar yet.)Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.www.google.com
The next few days will tell if the managed to save them. How didn't they withdraw earlier is mystery.Khortytsia Group of Forces said:Currently, Ukrainian Armed Forces units conducting defensive operations in this sector of the front are valiantly repelling Russian assaults on the outskirts of Uspenivka, Hannivka, Trudove, and Romanivka. Necessary measures are being taken to prevent the capture or encirclement of these positions by the enemy
Ukrainian forces preparing for all scenariosSirsky said:Currently, battles continue in the Pokrovsk sector against the enemy superior primarily in manpower. We must make unconventional decisions to enhance the resilience of our defence and more effectively destroy the invaders.
The fighting is extremely intense. Russian invaders are deploying all available forces, attempting to break through the defences of our troops. Ukrainian soldiers are demonstrating extraordinary resilience and are inflicting significant losses on the enemy.
Reading between the lines: Ukrainians could be preparing to let the town fall. What other "potential scenario" or "unconventional decision" could it be?Sirsky said:The Pokrovsk sector has remained one of the most difficult in terms of confronting Russian occupiers for several months. We are carefully calculating and preparing for all potential scenarios regarding the enemy's next moves.
Russian occupiers' losses in the Pokrovsk sector remain consistently high, particularly in terms of manpower. In December, the enemy's average daily losses here are approximately 400 soldiers killed and wounded.
Death toll following Russia’s strike on Zaporizhzhia rises to 11Zelensky said:This is how he wants 'negotiations'
________________Ukrinform said:Shatsky was responsible for upgrading Kh-59 cruise missiles to the Kh-69 level and developing new UAVs.
_______________Ukrinform said:The ministry plans to supply Ukrainian forces with about 100,000 more drones by the end of the year.
(same link)Trump said:We’re just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done. Now they’re doing not only missiles, but they’re doing other types of weapons. And I think that’s a very big mistake, very big mistake
Did he read Medvediev's last tweets?Xi said:China will continue to work to create “favourable conditions for a political solution” to the Ukraine crisis,
It appears the pocket has fallen. Either we're about to see a whole lot of surrendering Ukrainians or they found a way to get out. My money is on the latter.Ukraine admits encirclement of their troops in Hannivka (Kurakhove sector)
The next few days will tell if the managed to save them. How didn't they withdraw earlier is mystery.
Why the pessimism? It might not be the last major Ukrainian defeat.Sirsky admits that the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is extremely difficult.
Ukrainian forces preparing for all scenarios
Reading between the lines: Ukrainians could be preparing to let the town fall. What other "potential scenario" or "unconventional decision" could it be?
The two events above, if they concretise would be the last major Ukrainian defeat.
I have to wonder about how you draw your conclusions.Ukrainian arms producers have manufactured and installed a remotely controlled module involving 14.5mm and 7.62mm machine guns on an M113 armoured personnel carrier.
This is interesting because it's a very old vehicle but they have a lot of them (and allies have a lot to give them) and this would be turn it into a semi-modern combat vehicle.
NATO deployment as peacekeepers is being discussed.
Some countries like Germany are against, others like Italy are ready to participate. It's a very divided topic, yet it's not off the table anymore.
This is now being confirmed by other sources as well. For example:Interesting developments continue, there are reports that Russia is not only still in control of the southern beachhead across the Oskol but is expanding it northward, attacking into the village of Dvurechnoe. If correct and successful (two big ifs) this could be the start of a cross-Oskol push to envelop Kupyansk from the north. We don't have good confirmation yet.
Dvurechnoe itself is an agglomeration of several villages. In the south is a place called Rakovo, this is where Russia has allegedly entered. West of that is Palestina (Palestine), north-west of there is Kirpichnoe (Brick-place). West-north-west of there is Sagunovka, north east of that is Pivnichnoe (Severnoe/Northern) and east of there is Dibrovka. In the center is Dvurechnoe. They appear to be a single rural municipality in terms of organization, but this is just what I could tell. Lastly Palestina has some multi-story apartment buildings, meaning it will be harder to attack. There are also some multi-story buildings in the center of Dvurechnoe. East of there are two bridges across both of which I believe are damaged and mostly unusuable. Dvurechnoe is also geographically large, meaning it may take some time to capture. On the other hand capturing all of it would give Russia a fairly large chunk of the Oskol right shore, and likely the ability to cross much easier at various spots.
My biggest wonder is why Russia is attacking this way, as opposed to just blasting through the Ukrainian state border from the north along the Oskol.
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Двуречная. Наши войска немного продвинулись в застройке района Раково и расширили плацдарм.t.meНовости СВО и Мира ©
Двуречная. Наши войска продвинулись вглубь н.п. в мкр. Раково, плацдарм на западном берегу реки Оскол увеличивается. Уничтожен 1 танк и 2 БМП противника.t.meKalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.www.google.com
There is another possibility. Russian sources have been talking about a possible major Ukrainian offensive coming up. They believe that Ukraine intends to launch another big push prior to Trump-sponsored negotiations kicking off. Russia may be saving up bombs for a much more intense bombing campaign when that push materializes. We saw similar things happen with Lancet usage prior to the summer offensive last year. Some Russian sources even think Ukraine's recent statements about being willing to negotiate and accept some territory loss in exchange for NATO membership may be part of a smoke screen. The new "square" tactical marking has shown up in Chernigov region so that might be the area they intend to push, or not. If yes, it would make sense that Russia is destroying some bridges in the area to complicate Ukrainian logistics in case of an offensive.Reports suggest that there has been an “epic” drop in bomb use by the Russian forces recently.
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That post is from two days ago (or three?). There is no consensus as to why that is: some suggest it may be due to the Ukrainian strikes on the ammunition storage facilities in Russia, others suggest other reasons. Most (usually) reasonable people seem to agree that it is maybe due to the wether. I have no idea personally, but I thought it is an interesting development worthy of a note. There were also reports of three or four days in a row without a Geran in the Ukrainian sky prior to the massive attack the other day. According to the reports by the General Staff of Ukraine this has not happened since July and that is after a massive increase in the use of these UAVs in the past two months or so. We will see what happens.
That's why I never rely on video for information. (for entertainment purpose it's ok thought). If we are talking about the same video, nothing indicates that the black human figures moving on the snow are Korean soldiers, let alone North ones.KipPotapych said:Today some videos were posted in numerous places claiming the North Korean meat wave attack in Kursk. I thought we may finally have some evidence on hand. Well, first, you can’t see a thing in the video. Second, there is no fighting involved, just a spread out bunch of folks moving somewhere. Third, later in the day the Ukrainian soldier from a drone unit actually fighting in the very area said that those aren’t Koreans:
When we don't know, we usually say: A combination of several factors.KipPotapych said:That post is from two days ago (or three?). There is no consensus as to why that is: some suggest it may be due to the Ukrainian strikes on the ammunition storage facilities in Russia, others suggest other reasons. Most (usually) reasonable people seem to agree that it is maybe due to the wether. I have no idea personally,
If there were no shortage or other impediments, Russians would be able to drop as many FABs as they want while replenishing as much as they use.Feanor said:There is another possibility. Russian sources have been talking about a possible major Ukrainian offensive coming up. They believe that Ukraine intends to launch another big push prior to Trump-sponsored negotiations kicking off. Russia may be saving up bombs for a much more intense bombing campaign when that push materializes.
That's opinion oriented. many people including myself don't think that Russia would negotiate no matter what, and take any chance to point to some Ukrainian agression as a reason not to.Feanor said:A thought I had was this. If Ukraine doesn't really want to negotiate but can't just tell the US "no" then launching another offensive could be a way to get Russia to refuse to negotiate. After Kursk Russia's position hardened, and this might also serve that purpose.
Personally, I didn't see any change. Same language. Same Lavrov's face. Same lunar landscape after carpet shelling. Same massive long range missile attacks. I don't see any difference between Bahkmut, Avdiivka and Pokrovsk. The same shelling of the Sumy region and other regions.Feanor said:After Kursk Russia's position hardened
Turkiye bought the design of M113 in order to make a few hundred for their own army. To this day they still maintain those M113 and more importantly, they retain the ability to make spare parts for it. They also developed upgrades for it. Just check out the FNSS website. If anyone want a more powerful engine, electrooptical sensors, remote controlled turret, and active defense system on the M113, FNSS can install them.M113 is never going to be “semi-modern”. It will have the same issues of being western and old; spare parts and mechanics. That we have doesn't mean that we give. What guidance system is going to have? That could be modern. Is it going to have its own APS? Is just another anti-drone development? The really important one, how many in the next 3 months? How many every month to replace losses?
No APCs any more or just an old APC with an HMG (in a cupola)?
Fredled was not talking about Turkish M113s, if they are new, they are modern; as they can have a modern guidance system.Turkiye bought the design of M113 in order to make a few hundred for their own army. To this day they still maintain those M113 and more importantly, they retain the ability to make spare parts for it. They also developed upgrades for it. Just check out the FNSS website. If anyone want a more powerful engine, electrooptical sensors, remote controlled turret, and active defense system on the M113, FNSS can install them.
I will grant you that very few countries took advantage of that option. Most prefers to buy new systems derived from the M113, but I remember Philippine upgrading a dozen of their M113 about a decade ago and they still get spare parts from them. So the capability exists in NATO, or at least in Turkiye.
Now, I don't think Turkiye will provide spare parts and upgrades to Ukraine for free, but if Ukraine can find the cash, I believe Turkiye will sell. They have shown themselves not caring about Russian redlines.
You forgot to mention that the Su-35 has longer range radar and missiles.About FABs:
When we don't know, we usually say: A combination of several factors.
On of these factors could be the apparition of F16's circling in the area with AMRAAM's under their wings.
Or Ukrainians have hit a very important FAB storage site a few days or weeks ago and the shortage starts now. Russians don't save ammunition until there isn't any left LOL.