vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Likely lack of indirect fire equipment and a limited main gun elevation.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
Likely lack of indirect fire equipment and a limited main gun elevation.
Why is a army truck a erzats schoolbus when used to transport children? It simply isn't a schoolbus. This simply isn't a self-propelled howitzer. It's an armored recon vehicle with a gun and sights/FCS designed primarily for direct fire. The fact that you can indirect fire it doesn't make any more proper artillery then the Rapira anti-tank guns both sides for indirect fires, or the Russian use of tank fires on indirect with UAV support or Ukraine mounting KS-19 AAA on a truck and using them for indirect fire against ground targets. It's a substitute, a use of something that isn't meant to be the thing you're using it as. It doesn't make it ineffective (though it's typically substantially less effective than purpose-built systems). In this case the effect on target from a 105mm shell will be far less then it would be from a 155mm shell.
There seems to be something interesting happening in the Kursk-Sumy border area. Russian forces have cross the border into Sumy region south of Plekhovo, possibly as part of an effort to envelop Ukrainian forces. I think this illustrates part of Ukraine's problem in this area. Getting in was a choice they made, but getting out is a choice that Russia will get a vote in. Ukraine may eventually end up pushed out of Kursk region but it might simply mean the fighting moves into Sumy region. In other words it will potentially continue to tie resources and personnel down in this area.
So far confirmation is lacking from more neutral sources, both of the sources I'm quoting are firmly Russian though non-government of course.
t.me
t.me
EDIT: Suriyakmaps confirms. Russian forces are now inside Sumy region.
t.me
So far confirmation is lacking from more neutral sources, both of the sources I'm quoting are firmly Russian though non-government of course.
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Курская область. Наши войска перешли границу южнее Плехово и продвинулись в направлении села Александрия, расположенного в Сумской области. Освобождено 3.5 км².
t.me
Схемы и карты военных действий
Курское пограничье. Район Плёхово Противник вчера начал утверждать, что ВС РФ вошли на территорию Сумской области Украины, южнее н.п.Плёхово Ближайшая деревня Александрия в 2.5-3 км. И далее важный по логистике населенный пункт Мирополье. Пока надо ждать подтверждения с нашей стороны, или начала...
t.me
EDIT: Suriyakmaps confirms. Russian forces are now inside Sumy region.
Suriyakmaps
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1020: Situation on Kursk front: As operations to capture Guevo are developing Russian Army crossed the border & captured the forest area northeast of Oleksandriya thus entering in the oblast of Sumy. Map: [...
t.me
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A interesting article on pop up drones used by Russia circumventing anti drone technology by being wire fed ,these drones are directed by ordinary drones on the look out for approaching targets the resting drones are activated to attack, certainly something military forces around the world should take into consideration ,
Wire guided drones are an effective way to avoid jamming. Russian advertised the use of optically wired drones with a range of 25km. This technology can be very effective for reconnaissance because it allows very high image quality and real time view seamlessly. However, single use, 25km optic wire is not possible in mass production for kamikaze drones which are used at a rate of 1000 units per day or more.
IMO, cheap, mass produced wire guided kamikaze drones have much shorter wires (a few km) else they wouldn't be so cheap.
Logistically it's also more cumbersome to carry one big coil for every drone. Unless they recoil the wire after each use (???).
Russians use this technology with success. I haven't read about Ukrainians using wire guided drones. Maybe they do. Maybe Ukrainian drones have better anti-jamming protection while Russian EW is less effective, so they don't need wire guided drones as much as Russians do. If they needed, Ukrainians could imitate the technology very quickly.
I don't have evidence of that. Just speculating.
IMO, cheap, mass produced wire guided kamikaze drones have much shorter wires (a few km) else they wouldn't be so cheap.
Logistically it's also more cumbersome to carry one big coil for every drone. Unless they recoil the wire after each use (???).
Russians use this technology with success. I haven't read about Ukrainians using wire guided drones. Maybe they do. Maybe Ukrainian drones have better anti-jamming protection while Russian EW is less effective, so they don't need wire guided drones as much as Russians do. If they needed, Ukrainians could imitate the technology very quickly.
I don't have evidence of that. Just speculating.
If you look at the Duke Vandal drone the wire spool is just a cylinder under the drone. No idea on the range, but it doesn't look like something that would be difficult to transport. On the flip side there has been considerable commentary that it's a shorter range system. On a side note Ukraine is already imitating this system just not at the same scale. Currently we have some indications that Russia started using the Duke Vandal as early as March of this year, and yet they weren't really prominent in footage until August. So it would make sense that Ukraine would initially start using small quantities to get the design down and ramp up production. I suspect we will see similar use of them by Ukraine within the next 6-12 months.
I thought the idea that drone could be rested in an area on standby then activated by an operator of a different drone when a target was approaching was interesting my other thoughts were neither side in this war have a system like Trophy and would this system defeat such a threat?
It has been mentioned that the limited detection arc is one reason why APS have been less than successful in dealing with drones and why they are still be penerated.
Focus: Adapting Protection Systems Against Drones - Trophy APS Put to Test
Focus: Adapting Protection Systems Against Drones - Trophy APS Put to Test
armyrecognition.com
I have another guess. Current APS systems have been calibrated against ATGM/RPGs, which have high speed and precise vector (straightline/funnel). It probably filters away anything slower to prevent it from activating against low flying.. organics, or rocks that is being kicked up by the track, tree branches falling etc.
FPV speeds are highly variable and they come from a variety of angles. So if you tune it incorrectly, an APS might end up activating over a number of false positives.
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Interesting developments continue, there are reports that Russia is not only still in control of the southern beachhead across the Oskol but is expanding it northward, attacking into the village of Dvurechnoe. If correct and successful (two big ifs) this could be the start of a cross-Oskol push to envelop Kupyansk from the north. We don't have good confirmation yet.
Dvurechnoe itself is an agglomeration of several villages. In the south is a place called Rakovo, this is where Russia has allegedly entered. West of that is Palestina (Palestine), north-west of there is Kirpichnoe (Brick-place). West-north-west of there is Sagunovka, north east of that is Pivnichnoe (Severnoe/Northern) and east of there is Dibrovka. In the center is Dvurechnoe. They appear to be a single rural municipality in terms of organization, but this is just what I could tell. Lastly Palestina has some multi-story apartment buildings, meaning it will be harder to attack. There are also some multi-story buildings in the center of Dvurechnoe. East of there are two bridges across both of which I believe are damaged and mostly unusuable. Dvurechnoe is also geographically large, meaning it may take some time to capture. On the other hand capturing all of it would give Russia a fairly large chunk of the Oskol right shore, and likely the ability to cross much easier at various spots.
My biggest wonder is why Russia is attacking this way, as opposed to just blasting through the Ukrainian state border from the north along the Oskol.
t.me
t.me
www.google.com
Dvurechnoe itself is an agglomeration of several villages. In the south is a place called Rakovo, this is where Russia has allegedly entered. West of that is Palestina (Palestine), north-west of there is Kirpichnoe (Brick-place). West-north-west of there is Sagunovka, north east of that is Pivnichnoe (Severnoe/Northern) and east of there is Dibrovka. In the center is Dvurechnoe. They appear to be a single rural municipality in terms of organization, but this is just what I could tell. Lastly Palestina has some multi-story apartment buildings, meaning it will be harder to attack. There are also some multi-story buildings in the center of Dvurechnoe. East of there are two bridges across both of which I believe are damaged and mostly unusuable. Dvurechnoe is also geographically large, meaning it may take some time to capture. On the other hand capturing all of it would give Russia a fairly large chunk of the Oskol right shore, and likely the ability to cross much easier at various spots.
My biggest wonder is why Russia is attacking this way, as opposed to just blasting through the Ukrainian state border from the north along the Oskol.
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Двуречная. Наши войска немного продвинулись в застройке района Раково и расширили плацдарм.
t.me
Новости СВО и Мира ©
Двуречная. Наши войска продвинулись вглубь н.п. в мкр. Раково, плацдарм на западном берегу реки Оскол увеличивается. Уничтожен 1 танк и 2 БМП противника.
t.me
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). Map is currently out of date and a new version will be made available in the near future.
www.google.com
rsemmes
Well-Known Member
Can we confirm one Toretsk's mound in Russian hands or not even now?
www.google.com
(Kalibrated is always optimistic, no counterattack in Novii Komar yet.)
I think the ~30km is the reason why there is no advance from Dolgoe.
www.google.com
This one,
has been updated 2 hours ago.
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). Map is currently out of date and a new version will be made available in the near future.
www.google.com
I think the ~30km is the reason why there is no advance from Dolgoe.
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). Map is currently out of date and a new version will be made available in the near future.
www.google.com
has been updated 2 hours ago.
Can we confirm one Toretsk's mound in Russian hands or not even now?
(Kalibrated is always optimistic, no counterattack in Novii Komar yet.)Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). Map is currently out of date and a new version will be made available in the near future.
Yes, one of the large mounds and the smaller mound directly north of it, plus some of the neighborhood there are in Russian hands.
Ukraine admits encirclement of their troops in Hannivka (Kurakhove sector)
Sirsky admits that the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is extremely difficult.
The two events above, if they concretise would be the last major Ukrainian defeat.
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Critical infrastructure hit in Ivano-Frankivsk Russians rarely bombards this far in the west. perhaps an important military target.
In another massive missile attack.
Death toll following Russia’s strike on Zaporizhzhia rises to 11
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Ukrinform confirms (claims) strike on an oil depot in Bryansk.
The Druzhba oil pipeline terminal is on fire.
They also targeted the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex.
Damages unclear.
Ukraine SBU liquidated a cruise missile development chief software engineer in the middle of the forest near Moscow.
Ukrainian arms producers have manufactured and installed a remotely controlled module involving 14.5mm and 7.62mm machine guns on an M113 armoured personnel carrier.
This is interesting because it's a very old vehicle but they have a lot of them (and allies have a lot to give them) and this would be turn it into a semi-modern combat vehicle.
In the first 11 months of 2024, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry supplied the Ukrainian Defense Forces with over 1.2 million unmanned aerial vehicles of various types.
1.1 million FPV were kamikaze drones. This gives you an idea of the volume being used.
NATO deployment as peacekeepers is being discussed.
Some countries like Germany are against, others like Italy are ready to participate. It's a very divided topic, yet it's not off the table anymore.
The Biden administration is working to surge deliveries of weapons to Ukraine in its final days in office (CNN)
It's a good news and a bad news at the same time. The good news is that it will give Ukrainian's the capability to strike back. Will they be able to retake lost territories? Only time will tell. But this + the next F16s should give them a chance. Other countries are upping military assistance.
The bad news is that they do that because they know that Trump could suddenly cut shipments.
Trump also "vehemently disagreed with the decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with US-provided weapons".
Maybe he should be invited to Defencetalk.com's forums where he could get educated on the basis of warefare and on the importance of striking enemy's logistic...
IMO, he tells that because he feels that it could jeopardize peace talks with Putin. Something he would be very proud of achieving.
Anyway it's not an indication in favour of Ukraine.
Xi meets Medvediev in Beijin.
________________
I will read/reply to previous posts later...
The next few days will tell if the managed to save them. How didn't they withdraw earlier is mystery.Khortytsia Group of Forces said:
Sirsky admits that the situation in the Pokrovsk sector is extremely difficult.
Ukrainian forces preparing for all scenariosSirsky said:
Reading between the lines: Ukrainians could be preparing to let the town fall. What other "potential scenario" or "unconventional decision" could it be?Sirsky said:
The two events above, if they concretise would be the last major Ukrainian defeat.
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Critical infrastructure hit in Ivano-Frankivsk Russians rarely bombards this far in the west. perhaps an important military target.
In another massive missile attack.
Zelensky said:
Death toll following Russia’s strike on Zaporizhzhia rises to 11
_________________
Ukrinform confirms (claims) strike on an oil depot in Bryansk.
The Druzhba oil pipeline terminal is on fire.
They also targeted the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex.
Damages unclear.
Ukraine SBU liquidated a cruise missile development chief software engineer in the middle of the forest near Moscow.
________________Ukrinform said:
Ukrainian arms producers have manufactured and installed a remotely controlled module involving 14.5mm and 7.62mm machine guns on an M113 armoured personnel carrier.
This is interesting because it's a very old vehicle but they have a lot of them (and allies have a lot to give them) and this would be turn it into a semi-modern combat vehicle.
In the first 11 months of 2024, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry supplied the Ukrainian Defense Forces with over 1.2 million unmanned aerial vehicles of various types.
1.1 million FPV were kamikaze drones. This gives you an idea of the volume being used.
_______________Ukrinform said:
NATO deployment as peacekeepers is being discussed.
Some countries like Germany are against, others like Italy are ready to participate. It's a very divided topic, yet it's not off the table anymore.
The Biden administration is working to surge deliveries of weapons to Ukraine in its final days in office (CNN)
It's a good news and a bad news at the same time. The good news is that it will give Ukrainian's the capability to strike back. Will they be able to retake lost territories? Only time will tell. But this + the next F16s should give them a chance. Other countries are upping military assistance.
The bad news is that they do that because they know that Trump could suddenly cut shipments.
Trump also "vehemently disagreed with the decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with US-provided weapons".
(same link)Trump said:
Maybe he should be invited to Defencetalk.com's forums where he could get educated on the basis of warefare and on the importance of striking enemy's logistic...
IMO, he tells that because he feels that it could jeopardize peace talks with Putin. Something he would be very proud of achieving.
Anyway it's not an indication in favour of Ukraine.
Xi meets Medvediev in Beijin.
Did he read Medvediev's last tweets?Xi said:
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I will read/reply to previous posts later...
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It appears the pocket has fallen. Either we're about to see a whole lot of surrendering Ukrainians or they found a way to get out. My money is on the latter.
Why the pessimism? It might not be the last major Ukrainian defeat.
On a serious note I don't think Pokrovsk is about to be abandoned. I think it will be at least a couple of months before the town falls. And that's assuming Russia moves aggressively against them. So far Russian efforts in that direction have taken a back seat to Russian efforts in the Kurakhovo area. I do think Ukraine is preparing for the eventuality of losing that town, but it's not like they can easily defend the next line of villages behind it. So it's not clear that retreating out of it without putting up the best fight they can would really help them.
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rsemmes
Well-Known Member
I have to wonder about how you draw your conclusions.
Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said Thursday that Italy would be willing to contribute to a future international peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
Italy would be 'willing to do peacekeeping in Ukraine' - Crosetto - Politics - Ansa.it
In the future, if it is still the same government, after a peace agreement.
Then...
European leaders are planning to meet Wednesday evening in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO chief Mark Rutte to discuss peace plans and the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.
The meeting comes in the wake of pressure from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for European countries to monitor any future peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow by sending troops to Ukraine, five people with knowledge of the meeting told POLITICO.
...
Macron travelled to Warsaw on Thursday to discuss sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, but was shot down by Polish PM Donald Tusk.
NATO and European leaders to discuss peacekeeping troops to Ukraine
The discussions follow French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Warsaw this week.
www.politico.eu
NATO is discussing, not a NATO peacekeeping mission. Trump is not going to do it, so he is telling us to do it. Off the table? First, you need a table. When, in the future, is “peace” happening?
A M113 is never going to be “semi-modern”. It will have the same issues of being western and old; spare parts and mechanics. That we have doesn't mean that we give. What guidance system is going to have? That could be modern. Is it going to have its own APS? Is just another anti-drone development? The really important one, how many in the next 3 months? How many every month to replace losses?
No APCs any more or just an old APC with an HMG (in a cupola)?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
This is now being confirmed by other sources as well. For example:Interesting developments continue, there are reports that Russia is not only still in control of the southern beachhead across the Oskol but is expanding it northward, attacking into the village of Dvurechnoe. If correct and successful (two big ifs) this could be the start of a cross-Oskol push to envelop Kupyansk from the north. We don't have good confirmation yet.
Dvurechnoe itself is an agglomeration of several villages. In the south is a place called Rakovo, this is where Russia has allegedly entered. West of that is Palestina (Palestine), north-west of there is Kirpichnoe (Brick-place). West-north-west of there is Sagunovka, north east of that is Pivnichnoe (Severnoe/Northern) and east of there is Dibrovka. In the center is Dvurechnoe. They appear to be a single rural municipality in terms of organization, but this is just what I could tell. Lastly Palestina has some multi-story apartment buildings, meaning it will be harder to attack. There are also some multi-story buildings in the center of Dvurechnoe. East of there are two bridges across both of which I believe are damaged and mostly unusuable. Dvurechnoe is also geographically large, meaning it may take some time to capture. On the other hand capturing all of it would give Russia a fairly large chunk of the Oskol right shore, and likely the ability to cross much easier at various spots.
My biggest wonder is why Russia is attacking this way, as opposed to just blasting through the Ukrainian state border from the north along the Oskol.
Новости СВО и Мира ©
Двуречная. Наши войска немного продвинулись в застройке района Раково и расширили плацдарм.Новости СВО и Мира ©
Двуречная. Наши войска продвинулись вглубь н.п. в мкр. Раково, плацдарм на западном берегу реки Оскол увеличивается. Уничтожен 1 танк и 2 БМП противника.Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). Map is currently out of date and a new version will be made available in the near future.
Russian control expanded beyond Oskil in the Masyutivka area, Russians also entered the area above Dvorichna.
Source: x.com
Today some videos were posted in numerous places claiming the North Korean meat wave attack in Kursk. I thought we may finally have some evidence on hand. Well, first, you can’t see a thing in the video. Second, there is no fighting involved, just a spread out bunch of folks moving somewhere. Third, later in the day the Ukrainian soldier from a drone unit actually fighting in the very area said that those aren’t Koreans:
Source: x.com
And:
Source: x.com
Reports suggest that there has been an “epic” drop in bomb use by the Russian forces recently.
That post is from two days ago (or three?). There is no consensus as to why that is: some suggest it may be due to the Ukrainian strikes on the ammunition storage facilities in Russia, others suggest other reasons. Most (usually) reasonable people seem to agree that it is maybe due to the wether. I have no idea personally, but I thought it is an interesting development worthy of a note. There were also reports of three or four days in a row without a Geran in the Ukrainian sky prior to the massive attack the other day. According to the reports by the General Staff of Ukraine this has not happened since July and that is after a massive increase in the use of these UAVs in the past two months or so. We will see what happens.
There is another possibility. Russian sources have been talking about a possible major Ukrainian offensive coming up. They believe that Ukraine intends to launch another big push prior to Trump-sponsored negotiations kicking off. Russia may be saving up bombs for a much more intense bombing campaign when that push materializes. We saw similar things happen with Lancet usage prior to the summer offensive last year. Some Russian sources even think Ukraine's recent statements about being willing to negotiate and accept some territory loss in exchange for NATO membership may be part of a smoke screen. The new "square" tactical marking has shown up in Chernigov region so that might be the area they intend to push, or not. If yes, it would make sense that Russia is destroying some bridges in the area to complicate Ukrainian logistics in case of an offensive.
Военный Осведомитель
Уже не первый раз у ВСУ светится новый тактический знак – белый квадрат – в приграничье Курской области. Появляться подобные знаки стали около 10 дней назад. В связи с этим дополнительно подпитываются возникшие недавно слухи о якобы новом запланированном украинском наступлении в российским...
t.me
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️☠На фоне слухов о якобы подготовке нового наступления ВСУ на украинской военной технике появился новый тактический знак - белый квадрат ▪️Техника засветилась на фото агентства Getty Images. По его данным, на кадрах - учения украинских антидиверсионных групп в Черниговской области. ▪️Летом...
t.me
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Два майора
#Обзорная #Сводка на утро 15 декабря 2024 года ▪️ В преддверии ожидаемого Зеленским переговорного процесса после прихода Трампа в белый дом (20 января), противник наращивает усилия по удержанию позиций в Курской области, наносит удары дальнобойным американским вооружением по нашей территории и...
t.me
A thought I had was this. If Ukraine doesn't really want to negotiate but can't just tell the US "no" then launching another offensive could be a way to get Russia to refuse to negotiate. After Kursk Russia's position hardened, and this might also serve that purpose.
EDIT: On the other hand some "square" units showed up near Velikaya Novoselka. It's possible this is because units held in reserve for some sort of action had to be scrambled to prevent Russian forces from breaking through in that area. It also could be that we are misreading what the new marking means.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
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That's why I never rely on video for information. (for entertainment purpose it's ok thought). If we are talking about the same video, nothing indicates that the black human figures moving on the snow are Korean soldiers, let alone North ones.KipPotapych said:
However, all sources agree that NKPC soldiers are in the area.
About FABs:
When we don't know, we usually say: A combination of several factors.KipPotapych said:
On of these factors could be the apparition of F16's circling in the area with AMRAAM's under their wings.
Or Ukrainians have hit a very important FAB storage site a few days or weeks ago and the shortage starts now. Russians don't save ammunition until there isn't any left LOL.
If there were no shortage or other impediments, Russians would be able to drop as many FABs as they want while replenishing as much as they use.Feanor said:
Do you think that they have the air capacity to drop several times more FABs (with several times more bombers) in a short time than what they do now?
To me, it looks that they use the maximum capacity all the time...
That's opinion oriented. many people including myself don't think that Russia would negotiate no matter what, and take any chance to point to some Ukrainian agression as a reason not to.Feanor said:
IMO, Ukrainians are hitting Russian anywhere they can and preferably where it's the easiest, without limiting their action in hope of an elusive Russian promise to negotiate.
Also IMO, as long as Ukrainians will fire at Russian troops inside or outside Russia, Putin will refuse to negotiate on the basis that Ukrainians are firing at Russian troops.
As long as there is no cease fire, all type of strikes are allowed. I don't think that there is a specific military action which would dicourage or encourage negotiations more than another.
Personally, I didn't see any change. Same language. Same Lavrov's face. Same lunar landscape after carpet shelling. Same massive long range missile attacks. I don't see any difference between Bahkmut, Avdiivka and Pokrovsk. The same shelling of the Sumy region and other regions.Feanor said:
Of course, that's also only my opinion.
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A few days ago, I was asking why Ukrainians don't strike Russian controlled railtroads. This is done now. Just today, two rare report of such attacks.
On December 14, an explosion in the Russian city of Ulianovsk
The second one is more interresting because they didn't just blow up the tracks when a train was coming, they also made use of drones and HIMARS. There is no much details, but as I understand, either the railroad track exploded too early and didn't destroy the train. Or it did, but the train was very long and many wagons were still intact after the blast.
They realy wanted to did it concretely. I don't think that the use of HIMARS was an improvisation.
Turkiye bought the design of M113 in order to make a few hundred for their own army. To this day they still maintain those M113 and more importantly, they retain the ability to make spare parts for it. They also developed upgrades for it. Just check out the FNSS website. If anyone want a more powerful engine, electrooptical sensors, remote controlled turret, and active defense system on the M113, FNSS can install them.
I will grant you that very few countries took advantage of that option. Most prefers to buy new systems derived from the M113, but I remember Philippine upgrading a dozen of their M113 about a decade ago and they still get spare parts from them. So the capability exists in NATO, or at least in Turkiye.
Now, I don't think Turkiye will provide spare parts and upgrades to Ukraine for free, but if Ukraine can find the cash, I believe Turkiye will sell. They have shown themselves not caring about Russian redlines.
rsemmes
Well-Known Member
Fredled was not talking about Turkish M113s, if they are new, they are modern; as they can have a modern guidance system.
Every Russian BTR, BMP, BMD... (and every tank) at the front line is semi-modern, because it has have some upgrade; I think that is a bit overoptimistic.
Edit
I am not going to call "semi-modern" looking through a TV instead of a periscope.
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rsemmes
Well-Known Member
About FABs:
When we don't know, we usually say: A combination of several factors.
On of these factors could be the apparition of F16's circling in the area with AMRAAM's under their wings.
Or Ukrainians have hit a very important FAB storage site a few days or weeks ago and the shortage starts now. Russians don't save ammunition until there isn't any left LOL.
You forgot to mention that the Su-35 has longer range radar and missiles.