The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk area.


In the Glushkovo area Ukrainian forces broke into Veseloe and Obukhovka but were repulsed by a Russian counter attack. They're still present in the village which is now contested. In the north Russian forces retook the villages of Novoselovka and Khitrovka. On the eastern side Russian forces are pushing on Plekhovo.


Russian UCAVs continue their harvest. In general their effect should be pretty devastating however it's hard to tell what their role is in the Russian counter-offensive in Kursk region, and in repelling Ukrainian advances in Glushkovo area.


A Ukrainian Bradley with a drone cage and BRAT ERA burns in Kursk region. It's interesting because it's another indication that elements of Ukraine's 47th Mech have now been sent to Kursk region.


Two Ukrainian vehicles get hit near Veseloe, allegedly IFVs. I can't make out the vehicle type but both appear to be destroyed as a result.


Russian wire-guided drone strike on 2 Ukrainian Leo-2s, Glushkovo area.


Near Veseloe, Russia's 56th VDV hits a Ukrainian vehicle of some sort, while it's moving. It appears destroyed.


Glushkovo area a Ukrainian BMP-1 taken out by a drone strike, and the surviving dismounts getting finished off by drone-dropped munitions.


Russian forces shelling Ukrainian positions in the village of Plekhanovo, with North Korean shells.


Russian drone and loitering munition strikes also continue. We have one hitting an M88 ARV, and allegedly a Tunguska, though I can't tell what they hit there. Hitting vehicles engaged in recovery efforts is a pretty standard approach for Russia. We also have what looks like a Kozak armored car, already knocked out, getting finished off. Lastly we have two strikes, one hits something, unclear, but it explodes pretty spectacularly, the other hits what looks like a stationary Stryker with cage armor.


Another series of drone strikes on different vehicles and infantry.


Scarce Russian 2B9 automatic mortar fires, from Marines of battlegroup north in Kursk area.


A knocked out Kirpi and two destroyed cars, Ukrainian, Kursk region.


A flipped Stryker, Kursk region. It's not the first time we've seen this happen and it's unclear why.


A group of Ukrainian POWs alleged from the 47th Mech Bde captured near Glushkovo after a failed attack and another group taken under unknown circumstances.


Russian 56th VDV hauls away a captured Kirpi, possibly the same as above.


From a Ukrainian TV report, we can see the combat load of a Russian T-90M captured in Kursk region. The sabot rounds we see are the 2BM23 Zakolka, 3BM44 Mango, and 3BM27 Nadezha-R. Out of these the Mango is the most modern, being the last soviet APSFDS round from the '80s, the rest are all older. Note I don't think we have another captured T-90M, I suspect it's the same one from early in the push now filtering its way from social media reporting to TV channel coverage.


Russia hit a locomotive in Sumy region with a Lancet. This is possible the first time Russia has done this.


One Ukrainian drone apparently attempted to strike the Kursk NPP, another hit a residential building in Kursk.


Russia hit a saltpeter storage in Kursk region, Ukrainian held area, causing a large explosion.


Russian forces preparing a Vandal wire-guided drone for launch.


Ukrainian MR-2 Viktor, in Kursk area, note the triangle. Russia has done some damage to Ukrainian air defenses here, and presumably is scrambling resources, especially with the appearance of Russian MALE UCAVs.


Ukrainian Stryker with EW in Kursk area.


Kharkov area.

Russian combined strike with Tornado-S and Uragan rockets on alleged Ukrainian forces massed in the woods near the village of Slatino, Kharkov area.


Russian strike on allegedly a Ukrainian SP Howitzer near Bayrak village, Kharkov region. Note with the thermals there definitely does appear to be a vehicle hiding in the woods.


Russian strike on some garages in the Kharkov area, we have what appear to be secondaries, suggesting Russia hit something explosive.


Russian ODAB-1500 strike in Volchansk, and a FAB-3000 strike on the factory complex (3rd link).


Russia hits a Ukrainian infantry team in Volchansk with a Lancet.


5 Ukrainian POWs out of Volchansk.


Ukrainian strikes on Shebekino continue.


The ruins of Volchansk, the town is basically gone.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces have expanded the salient around Peschanoe again. Russian forces are now inside Kolesnikovka, and have approached Kruglyakovka. The road there is certainly unusuable as a supply route.


Russian infantry assaulting a Ukrainian positions near Petropavlovka. Warning footage of corpses.


Oskol front.

Russia has continue attacking along multiple areas. West of Makeevka Russian forces have taken the hills on the western side of Zherebets, securing the Russian hold on that bank. West of Andreevka Russian forces have also taken the hills on the right shore of the Zherebets approaching the village of Vishnevo. South of Andreevka Russian forces have taken the rest of the left bank. Russian forces have gained some ground in the fields east of Novosadovoe, south-east of Nevskoe, which is now under Russian control. Lastly Russia now has all of Makeevka.


Fragments of a Switchblade loitering munition in Makeevka.


Seversk salient.


Russian advances have resumed here. Russian sources claim the capture of Verkhnekamenskoe, but this isn't clear. Suriyakmaps confirms the capture of the major trench system east of it, and Russian forces present in the eastern side of the village.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gorlovka-Toretsk.

Russian forces are continuing to expand their area of control in the center of Toretsk, and have taken all of Nelepovka. Russian forces have also taken many of the fields between the southern part of Toretsk and Nelepovka, likely due to Ukrainian forces pulling back.


A panorama and a car-filme video of the ruins of Toretsk. Unlike Novogrodovka and Ukrainsk, this town will be in ruins by the time it falls, much of it already is.


Pokrovsk axis.

Here Russia is continuing to push westward north of Selidovo and south of Selidovo. That town is now slowly being enveloped. Meanwhile Russian forces have taken the rest of Nikolaevka and now firmly hold Krasniy Yar and Krutoy Yar, south of Mirnograd. I don't think Russia will push on Pokrovsk until they take Mirnograd, and I don't think they will push on Mirnograd until they take Selidovo.


Footage of Russian forces inside Nikolaevka. We do have a Bradley present in the area as well.


North of Selidovo Russian drones double-tap a Ukrainian MaxxPro. The vehicle is definitely damaged, and veers off the road stopping behind a structure. We don't know the ultimate fate, as the video cuts off, but if it's immobilized it's probably finished off later.


Russia struck the Udachnoe train station, west of Pokrovsk. Apparently they hit a fuel train.


Ukrainian RM-70 Vampir on the Pokrovsk axis. This is essentially a longer ranged Grad variant.


Russian Nona-SVK on the Pokrovsk axis. Despite being an old system lacking in modern features, Russia would be lucky to be able to produce these in bulk. As is there's no evidence of new deliveries of the type since the war started.


Russian Buk-M3 and Tor-M1 on the Pokrovsk axis. We still see the Buk-M3 with minimal missiles on the rack indicating continuing shortages of these advanced SAMs. The Tor has interesting armor panels on the sides, it's definitely up-armored, but it's not the neat kit we sat on Tor-M2s and M1s in other footage, yet it also looks factory made.


A Russian T-80BVM in action on the Pokrovsk axis. We have double-layer ERA side-skirts and a robust roof cage.


Kurakhovo area.

Russian forces have widened their salient west of Krasnogorovka, north of Maksimil'yanovka and have pushed it out further entering the eastern part of Ostrovskoe. This cuts the last road south out of Gornyak east of Kurkhovo. Moreover the road into Kurakhovo is across a bridge. West of Gornyak Russia is pushing southward, having taking the mine complex south of Ukrainsk, and into Tsukurino, where Russia now holds half of the village. Russian forces have also pushed out towards Novoselidovka, west of Gornyak.


There are reports of Russian strikes on Kurakhovo intensifying. Given it's central location, there are likely Ukrainian supplies and reserves there being targeted as part of Russia's push in the area. I think an assault on Kurakhovo itself is still a ways off.


Russia struck the village of Yasenovoe, north-east of Kurakhovo. Target unclear.


Ugledar area.

Ugledar itself appears fully under Russian control and there doesn't seem to be any prospect of a Ukrainian counter-attack. Russian advances north of Ugledar push towards the ventilation complex for the No3 mine, and towards the village of Katerinovka, west of Konstantinovka. I think we're going to see continued Russian pushes here, aiming to push towards Kurakhovo area from the south. They probably won't reach Kurakhovo from this axis for some time, but the pressure will complicate logistics as Russian troops approach the reservoir from the north.

There is one thing we can say, no mass surrender of Ukrainian forces took place, meaning the 72nd Mech was probably able to break out of the town before it was fully cut off. It's unclear what losses they took exiting.


Russian BMP-2 delivering an assault team under fire. We appear to have multiple ATGM misses. The ultimate fate of the vehicle is unclear, the last bit seems to imply it survived, but the video is spliced, so it may have been destroyed when it came under fire after the infantry dismounted.


Russian drone strike on Ukrainian infantry near Ugledar and on buildings in Ugledar.


Ukrainian BMP-2 inside Ugledar knocked out by an FPV drone and finished off with drone-dropped munitions.


Russian infantry from the 5th Tanks inside Ugledar. They appear pretty comfortable posing for a group shot from the UAV. Meanwhile the panorama shot is a great illustration of why Ugledar is a town and not a village.


Russia striking the complex around the air ventilation shaft for the No 3 mine. It's south-west of the main complex, north of Ugledar.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on allegedly Ukrainian military storage in the village of Razliv, west of Kurakhovo, north-west of Ugledar.


Russian LMUR strike on a building in Zolotaya Niva, confirming the village is still in Ukrainian hands. Note series of LMUR stikes preceeded Russian attack in Prechistovka.


We have footage of Russian forces coming out of Ugledar. Apparently there were still civilians left in the city, either 107 or 116, sources disagree. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian soldiers in the No 3 mine complex, Ugledar.


Zaporozhye.


Russian forces continue to advance in the Orekhov area.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian Tunguska in Zaporozhye. It's interesting, this is the third Ukrainian Tunguska sighted recent, two were in Kursk area. Previously these scarce vehicles were almost invisible. Outside of Russia only a few countries have them, one of them being Morocco. I'm wondering if that's where Ukraine got their recent boon of 2S6s.


Russian gliding bomb strikes on Zaporozhye continue hitting energy infrastructure and the Motor-Sich factory.


Russian forces training with new BMP-3Ms. It's a fully loaded variant, with the extra armor, roof cage, EW kit, and camo netting.


Dnepr front.


Reports continue to come in that Ukraine has lost most of the islands in the Dnepr delta.


Russia hit a community hall in Kherson, footage of burned out camo netting suggests it was being used for a military purpose. Note the city of Kherson is almost completely empty.


Russia hit Velikaya Aleksandrovka, specifically the school house, on the right shore of the Dnepr with an Iskander. Allegedly this was a Ukrainian staging area. Russia claims 60 Ukrainian officers were in the building for a gathering of some sort.


Russia has taken a gaggle of POWs on the Dnepr islands. I count 8. While a cross-Dnepr assault seems very unlikely under current circumstances, Ukraine seems to have lost the river. Depending on how things continue, I suspect we will see Russian raids on the right shore.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russia hit a train in Kazanka, Nikolaev region, allegedly carrying munitions.


Russia hit the Novokramatorsk machinebuilding plant in Kramatorsk causing a major fire. Presumably, like many industrial complexes, it was being used as a staging or storage area.


Russian strike on Belgorod-Dnestrovskiy allegedly hit a staging area for foreign fighters in Ukraine.


Ukrainian air defenses firing in Kiev. I can't be sure but it looks like some Russian impacts right before the camera shifts at the start. It's also unclear if those flashes are intercepts, they might be.


Battle damage from the Russian strike on the Odessa port.


Russian sources claim the recent strike on Starokonstantinov killed 9 NATO officers, 6 Americans and 3 French, and wounded a number of others. Confirmation is obviously not forthcoming.


A Ukrainian drone struck a fuel storage facility in Voronezh region causing a fire. It's unclear if this was the intended target, as the Russian source claims it went down due to EW. If true, it's a very bad place to bring it down.


Another Ukrainian drone struck a residential building in Voronezh.


Interesting bits.

Russian ZFB-05s continue to show up in recent footage. It's likely the same small batch.


A good photo of one of Russia's depth-charge launcher vehicles, on an MBT chassis.


Ukraine has demonstrated a towed Bogdana variant using a Giatsint-B carriage, and a new small guided bomb, possible for UCAV use. I suspect Ukraine's Bogdana howitzers are being manufactured outside Ukraine but it's still telling that Ukraine is getting towed guns made and Russia isn't.


A rare Ukrainian T-62MV, no doubt captured from Russia, on a training ground. It's unclear if Ukraine intends to field it in combat.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
In the month of September, Russia has gained about 400 sq km. The biggest and majority of the gains were made at Pokrovsk direction and Kurakhove, about 160 sq km each. Oskol advances were about 60 sq km, while Kharkiv and Kramatorsk saw some minor advances.

In the Kursk region, Ukraine lost control of about 120 sq km.
Quoting myself here for continuity. I mentioned in the quoted post that Deepstate’s numbers are usually lagging behind and the area captured is likely larger than their claims. Today, another mapper posted their update on the September totals. While the number for Kursk in nearly identical (120 vs 126 sq km), the area in Ukraine that exchanged hands is quite larger (397 vs 468 sq km).

IMG_7242.jpeg

Source: x.com

This puts it into another consecutive monthly record (3 or 4th now?) of the territory captured by Russia. Note that the mapper I cited in my previous post #10,699 (the last image there and description (in French) on the left of it) claims this number to stand at 428 sq km.

For those using X, this is a really cool thread on the Ukrainian units involved and their movement in Kursk offensive, accompanied by neat visualizations and some commentary. I recommend it for viewing just for the coolness of it even. If anyone wants to do a proper unroll and post a link, I am sure others would appreciate it.


Some details of the Vuhledar withdrawal are coming to light. Very unsurprisingly, the pattern followed all other major (and minor?) withdrawals to a tee. It was somewhat obvious though, as I posted a few days ago asking why the Ukrainian troops were still in Vuhledar. The BBC reported a couple of days ago:

Over the past few days Ukrainian soldiers had to find their own way out of Vuhledar by foot as it was impossible to evacuate them otherwise, a machine-gunner who wished to remain anonymous said.

Many were wounded and killed by Russian drones and artillery as they tried to leave, another soldier, Roman, says. Many more are still missing.


According to the article, the order to retreat came on Wednesday (nuts, right?). I actually read conflicting accounts in regard to the order - some claim it never came, others say it came earlier. I didn’t post about it the other day because… Well, because it was suggested here that now there are proper withdrawals and whatever. Today, however, there was more supporting evidence of the above account. For example:

The 72nd Brigade left Vuhledar battered, with heavy losses. Before that, the Russians had already reached the areas through which the brigade would retreat and set up firing positions in garages behind the cemetery. The 72nd’s withdrawal was brutal. Vehicles, armored carriers were hit and burned. After days of agony in the besieged city before that, the soldiers were drained. By the dawn of retreat, not all had the strength to move to try break through. Some stayed behind, committing themselves to death to cover the retreat. […] Now, the 72nd, driven from its den, risks annihilation in the open fields under artillery and FPV drones. The Russians’ control from Vuhledar’s heights stretches 15 kilometers, nearly to Kurakhove.

Post on X: x.com. Or one readable to anyone: Thread by @Mylovanov on Thread Reader App.

Another kind of disturbing tidbit from that post:

By a cruel twist, while my brigade was clawing its way out of Vuhledar, people across the country were sipping coffee, going to cinemas, and strolling to street music. Well-wishes, both genuine and routine, were offered to the soldiers – even as they were dying, abandoned to their fate. I have no way to bridge these two worlds - the peaceful Ukraine and the military, each marching relentlessly on its path.

Hard to truly imagine what these guys really feel. Especially when their fellow men, likely the closets people they have, are being obliterated. Crazy stuff.

In another article, that I lost track of now, they interviewed an officer from the 72nd brigade and asked if Vuhledar could be defended, to which he replied that it could if the 72nd was replaced at least 2-3 months ago and whoever rotated into its place was properly trained and willing (basically had balls) to hold the line.

Other news… A few months ago, there was an idea to form a Ukrainian Legion in Poland, as an example for other countries having a great number of Ukrainian refugees, in order to enrol those Ukrainian men who left the country, properly train and equip them, and send them to the front. It was kind of a big deal with high hopes (or statements, rather). As it turned out and, frankly, was expected, no one came to sign up.


This, of course, is understandable because otherwise it would contradict the very basic logic behind leaving the country to begin with and seeing what is happening now. Imagine if many would want to though! People remaining inside Ukraine aren’t willing to join the fight, why would anyone who left, living a normal life do? The Times article described the situation yesterday:

In Odesa, a city of almost one million, one local conscription officer detailed how his department was falling well short of its targets. “We’re not mobilising even 20 per cent of what is required,” he said, adding that on some days more than 100 call-up papers were handed out, yet only a handful of men would respond. “Odesa region is one of the worst on the list.”

He painted a picture of corruption, mismanagement and disillusionment within his department, which made it “impossible to complete our goals”.

He said colleagues were accepting bribes worth thousands of pounds to forge exemptions, staff shortages meant employees had to take on several responsibilities at once — from processing papers to street patrols — and senior bosses threatened to send employees to the front line if they underperformed.

Some days, more than half the men who do come forward for mobilisation have health conditions that make them ineligible, such as tuberculosis, hepatitis or HIV, the officer added.[…]

A Telegram group shares updates on the location of Odesa’s roaming “conscription squads” and their checkpoints. Almost 150,000 men belong to the group, said to be run from Russia.

It is a marked shift from the beginning of the war when hundreds of thousands came forward to sign up, including Gennadiy, 47.

“I tried to volunteer but was told I wasn’t needed,” he said.“Now I don’t want to fight. Our government doesn’t support soldiers. They don’t have proper equipment and are forgotten about if they get injured.”



The article also describes how men are grabbed off the streets, often illegally, etc. Not really new stuff.

It’s really a crazy situations though, no? Polls indicate that people don’t want to cede any territory (though quite decreasingly so), yet they don’t want to actually do the fighting. It just doesn’t register, especially with the periodic reports suggesting that Russia wants to get rid of Ukraine and everything Ukrainian and so on. Then there is this guy in Vuhledar that cannot reconcile that and where he is and what he is doing. Like I said, it is hard to imagine what he feels if I cannot really fully process it sitting on the couch thousands of miles away. Anyway… Perhaps stranger things have happened.

On that ^ note, while the situation is already catastrophic, I would suggest that once the Ukrainian borders open again, it will quickly become much worse than most imagine. In other words, a huge country full of mostly old people who simply won’t move because this is where they live.

Other news… Support likely goes as far the finances do, among other things. France is planning to cut their budget by some €40B and raise taxes in order to collect another €20B next year. While far from the major contributors, this is somewhat an indication where the wind blows. Others have similar issues.


I would guess that I am close to running out of space in this post, so I will cut it here for today.
 
On that ^ note, while the situation is already catastrophic, I would suggest that once the Ukrainian borders open again, it will quickly become much worse than most imagine. In other words, a huge country full of mostly old people who simply won’t move because this is where they live.
For this among other reasons, I think people are underestimating the possibility that post-war Ukraine will eventually align once again with Russia. Russia's MO is to invest heavily in the areas they once fought over (Chechnya). And you can already see the seeds of antipathy toward the West in Ukraine for not providing enough support. Couple that with the fact that much of Ukraine's war debt is held by Western private equity; with the likelihood that the ending of the war will cause a political crisis in Ukraine (no way Zelensky escapes major blame for how the war went, and also no way he will go quietly), with the demographic decay and overall impoverishment of the country, and with the fact that Western attention is fleeting and is already fixed on China and the Middle East, and you have the recipe for major social unrest that the West largely ignores, and that provokes large scale anger towards the West.

If Ukraine is essentially a rump state, will Western interests really want to invest? Because Putin certainly will and he knows how to navigate the kind of corruption endemic in the post-Soviet world to suit his ends better than perhaps anyone. What happens if he throws his support behind the hard right nationalists after the war? They would seem to have more in common with him (a la Kadyrov) than they do with the peacetime Western political elite.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
For this among other reasons, I think people are underestimating the possibility that post-war Ukraine will eventually align once again with Russia. Russia's MO is to invest heavily in the areas they once fought over (Chechnya). And you can already see the seeds of antipathy toward the West in Ukraine for not providing enough support. Couple that with the fact that much of Ukraine's war debt is held by Western private equity; with the likelihood that the ending of the war will cause a political crisis in Ukraine (no way Zelensky escapes major blame for how the war went, and also no way he will go quietly), with the demographic decay and overall impoverishment of the country, and with the fact that Western attention is fleeting and is already fixed on China and the Middle East, and you have the recipe for major social unrest that the West largely ignores, and that provokes large scale anger towards the West.

If Ukraine is essentially a rump state, will Western interests really want to invest? Because Putin certainly will and he knows how to navigate the kind of corruption endemic in the post-Soviet world to suit his ends better than perhaps anyone. What happens if he throws his support behind the hard right nationalists after the war? They would seem to have more in common with him (a la Kadyrov) than they do with the peacetime Western political elite.
What you suggest is a possibility but Putin isn’t exactly awash with spare cash. Post war Ukrainian discontent with the West might see Ukraine approaching China rather than Russia. Gives China a footprint in Eastern Europe and Russia is hardly in a position to object.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
For this among other reasons, I think people are underestimating the possibility that post-war Ukraine will eventually align once again with Russia. Russia's MO is to invest heavily in the areas they once fought over (Chechnya). And you can already see the seeds of antipathy toward the West in Ukraine for not providing enough support. Couple that with the fact that much of Ukraine's war debt is held by Western private equity; with the likelihood that the ending of the war will cause a political crisis in Ukraine (no way Zelensky escapes major blame for how the war went, and also no way he will go quietly), with the demographic decay and overall impoverishment of the country, and with the fact that Western attention is fleeting and is already fixed on China and the Middle East, and you have the recipe for major social unrest that the West largely ignores, and that provokes large scale anger towards the West.

If Ukraine is essentially a rump state, will Western interests really want to invest? Because Putin certainly will and he knows how to navigate the kind of corruption endemic in the post-Soviet world to suit his ends better than perhaps anyone. What happens if he throws his support behind the hard right nationalists after the war? They would seem to have more in common with him (a la Kadyrov) than they do with the peacetime Western political elite.
What you suggest is a possibility but Putin isn’t exactly awash with spare cash. Post war Ukrainian discontent with the West might see Ukraine approaching China rather than Russia. Gives China a footprint in Eastern Europe and Russia is hardly in a position to object.
I think there is near 0 chance Putin can get in bed with Ukrainian nationalists. Despite Putin being in bed with right-wingers elsewhere, in Ukraine the ultra-nationalist crowd has based a large part of their identity on being anti-Russian in principle.
 
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