The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk area.


Minor note, I'm including all combat part of the Kursk front in this section even though some of the fighting is actually Ukrainian forces attempting to break into the northern part of Belgorod region, and much of Russia's long range strike is hitting Sumy.

Most recent map from Suriyakmaps. I still consider most of these maps tentative. I have suspicions that many of the red areas aren't actually under firm Russian control, and that much of Ukraine's presence is still relatively mobile.


Ukrainian forces inside Vnezapnoe village, north of Gordeevka.


Ukrainian forces attempt to break into Kolotilovka border checkpoint. It appears they were repulsed from the Russian side but dug in near the checkpoint, on the Ukrainian side, and were hit there too. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian Kozak armored cars getting hit by FPV drones. Much of the fighting here looks like this with Ukrainian mobile teams probing areas and Russian drones and artillery hunting them. The sheer number of Kozak armored cars specifically destroyed suggests that there was a large unit riding them. Possibly more then one btln.


A Russian BTR-82A apparently chases down and takes out 3 Ukrainian Kozak armored cars. I think this episode is the opening part that ultimately resulted in the destruction of a large number of Ukrainian vehicles destroyed seen below. Note, unless they're packing something fairly powerful in their turrets, they're likely helpless against the BTR-82A with it's 30mm autocannon. It's a mirror of a similar incident, much discussed on various social media, of a Ukrainian Bradley taking out 3 MT-LBs with it's autocannon.


Allegedly footage of a large Ukrainian forces (~company size) in armored cars and MRAPs getting hit. Results of this are below.


A large Ukrainian column with a mixed of armored cars and MRAPs was annihilated by the 810th MarBde. I suspect this is the same spot where we saw a BTR-82A chase down a trio of Ukrainian vehicles. Warning footage of corpses 1st-3rd links.


A Russian infantry squad in a Tigr-M armored car dismounts and begins firing towards a treeline allegedly housing Ukrainian positions. Note the silencers on the weapon and their transport. These are probably recon or SpN elements.


Another Ukrainian vehicle, allegedly a Kozak armored car, also gets hit and burns.


Another Kozak gets hit by a Russian strike, note it appears broken down. Ukrainian crew can be seen near it after it gest hit, and a pickup truck drives by.


A series of Russian FPV drone strikes on immobilized Ukrainian vehicles near Korenevo.


Russia allegedly taking out a Ukrainian Challenger 2 in Kursk region. Note it does look like a tank and it does exlpode pretty spectacularly but I can't make out the type. We do have other confirmation of CR 2s getting hit in Kursk region.


Allegedly these are the remains of the CR 2 from above.


A damaged Ukrainian Challenger 2, likely in Kursk region. Note the same unit riding Ukraine's Strykers, the 82nd Air Assault, is also the one that received the CR 2s. UK news outlets are also are running with the story of the tanks potentially being used there.


Ukrainian BMP-1 near Kremyannoe gets hit by one FPV drone, then double tapped by a second. It explodes and burns. Note the first drone seems to have gone right through the anti-drone netting.


Russia hits an IMR-2 in Sumy region.


Russia hits a Ukrainian tank on a trailer.


Russia hits an armored car and a Tunguska. The armored car I believe is in fact a Roshel Senator, but this isn't clear, and it's labeled as an Italian vehicle. The Tunguska might be the same one we saw earlier.


Ukrainian Stryker gets hit and burns near Kauchka, Kursk region.


Russia strikes a Ukrainian vehicle of some sort, allegedly an APC, somewhere in a treeline, Kursk region.


In a scene reminiscent of the days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a Russian soldier in an old Zhiguli pulls up to an abandoned (knocked out?) Ukrainian BMP and sets it on fire with a can of gasoline.


A Ukrainian BTR-60PB gets hit by a Lancet strike. Note this doesn't appear to be the same one we saw destroyed previously.


Russia hits two vehicles in Sumy region, they're claimed as an SP howitzer, and a tank firing indirect fire. However I can't really make out either one clearly. They do explode.


Russian Mi-28NM operating at night against allegedly Ukrainian vehicles in Kursk region. It's hard to tell what's they're hitting, but it explodes.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Korenevo. Note Ukraine has made several attempts to attack this village but have so far been repulsed.


Russia takes out a Ukrainian S-125 position in Sumy region. These might be Polish supplied S-125 variants.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian forces spotted and take out an M270 near Bezdryk in Sumy region. The munition used is claimed to be an airburst Iskander.


Russia hits two Ukrainian vehicles in the woods. They explode with what appear to be secondary explosions, and munitions cooking off. After the fire burns out we can see what looks like a burned out HIMARS.


Another HIMARS gets hit. This one we can make out fairly clearly. Note this is likely the largest one-time losses of Ukraine's long range HIMARS and M-270 MLRS systems, losing 4 systems in rapid succession. I suspect this is a combination of improved Russian reconnaissance capabilities, and Ukraine having to bring them closer to the front lines to hit targets in Kursk region.


Russia hits what looks like an IRIS-T position in Sumy region. However the lack of secondary explosions suggests that this might be a decoy.


Russia hits a storage facility in Sumy region, allegedly being used by Ukrainian armed forces.


Ukrainian Husky TSV destroyed, Kursk region.


A burning Bradley, Kursk region.


Two destroyed Ukrainian tanks T-72AV and PT-91 near the border with Kursk region.


Marines from the 810th MarBde pose with a captured Stryker.


Ukrainian POWs in Kursk region, likely the result of small maneuver elements getting smashed far from friendly forces.


Ukraine hit a bridge across the Seym river, near Glushkovo, Kursk region, and another one near Zvanoe. What's curious is that Russia had a pontoon bridge up before Ukraine destroyed the permanent bridge. It's likely Ukraine is trying to disrupt Russian logistics in the area but the small size of the rivers and the directions they flow in makes this less effective then in other situations.


Ukrainian Su-27 over Sumy region dropping JDAMs, possibly on the bridge above.


A knocked out Stryker and a civilian fuel truck with a Ukrainian tactical marking, suggesting they're using civilian fuel trucks.


Through obituaries we have confirmation of Ukraine using units made up of prisoners in their offensive into Kursk region.


Ukrainian KIA and a wrecked vehicle on the Kolotilovka check point. Ukraine has attacked here multiple times but failed to break through. Warning footage of corpses.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukrainian force evacuating a BREM-4RM, this is a very rare ARV on a BTR-4 chassis.


A Ukrainian T-72B3 mod'22 (possibly captured during this offensive) tows away a T-64BV.


We have confirmation of Ukraine using a whole slew of ARVs and engineering vehicles in this operation including the BTS-4, BREM-1, and Wisent ARV. Missing from the list in the link is the BTR-4RM, the IMR-2, and the Stryker ESV.


Ukrainian forces captured a T-90M in Kursk region. It's likely this was captured early in the push, and we're only now getting footage, as we have footage of this tank already being used by Ukrainian forces. It's also an older production T-90M as it doesn't have the new low roof cage, instead it has an improvised frame with netting.


Ukrainian forces with a captured T-80BVM with battlegroup north tactical markings. It was probably captured during the current push.


Ukrainian T-72AMT in Kursk region. This is a rare Ukrainian T-72A upgrade of which only low-mid double digits were completed pre-war. It's unclear if the upgrade is continuing.


Ukrainian M113s, Varta and Otokar Cobra II armored cars in Kursk region.


Reportedly Ukraine has sent parts of the 95th Air-Assault Bde to Kursk, from Toretsk, weakening the defenses there further, and suggesting that Ukraine has some greater intent for their assault here.


We have reports of Ukrainian SOF in Kursk region wearing red armbands, a color typically used by Russian units (along with white).


Russian Zemledelie remote minelayer, active in Kursk region. Note it's essentially an MLRS with packet reloading capability, but used exclusively to drop mines. The technology needed


Russian Tornado-U armored cargo truck Kursk region. Note the damage possibly from shrapnel, or even the tungsten balls so common to GMLRS munitions.


Russian T-62M mod'22, Kursk region. While these tanks would be in serious trouble if they encountered any remotely modern MBT, they are a deadly threat to anything light.


Russia is building defense lines ~45 kms from the border in Kursk region, likely in anticipation of more Ukrainian attempts to break through.


After the nice news stories in western media about Russian soldiers looting stores, I wonder if anyone will cover this? Here's a pair of Ukrainian soldiers in a store in Sudzha. I believe the videos speak for themselves.


A number of western journalists have visited occupied Sudzha, and the ones from Italy were apparently recalled after the FSB opened a case against them for illegally crossing the Russian border.


Ukraine has been spotted removing conscript POWs and what appear to be civilians from Sudzha. Note, both sides have been seen having POWs change into civilian clothing before, due to their uniforms being in bad shape from combat, so for military age males these may well be Russian soldiers.


A couple of Ukrainian soldiers mock a Russian civilian. One of them is wearing a German WWII-style helmet with the SS marking on it. I think enough has been said about the ugly trend of Ukrainian soldiers wearing far right and neo-Nazi insignia. The soldier with the SS insignia is Vasiliy Danilyuk, a 38 year old from Ivano-Frankovsk region.


Ukraine struck residential buidings in Grafovka village, Krasnoyaruzhskiy area, northern Belgorod region. Previously Ukrainian forces tried to break into this area from both the border and their salient in Kursk region but failed.


Russia is evacuating the Glushkov region, next to Sudzha.


We have unconfirmed reports that colonel-general Dolin will be the Russian commander for the Kursk area moving forward.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kharkov front.

Russian forces have restarted their advance along the Travyanskoe reservoir. It's likely that as Ukrainian forces have been diverted towards Kursk, opportunities have opened up here for more gains.


A Ukrainian howitzer gets hit, it was allegedly firing into Belgorod region. Note it might actually be operating in support of Ukrainian efforts at Kolotilovka (see above).


Ukraine hits another residential building with a drone in Shebekino. At first I assumed these were accidents but it's starting to look like a terroristic campaign against the civilian population.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have re-entered the northern part of Makeevka. The village is still contested, and as it straddles the river, Russia can't secure the village without taking the heights on the other side.


Chasov Yar.

While there is still combat action here, Russian offensive efforts have basically stopped. Russian forces have recaptured hill 215 near Klescheevka. This key tactical position dominates the area, and finally secures Klescheevka.


Russia hits a Ukrainian vehicle of some sort, near Chasov Yar.


Gorlovka-Toretsk.


Russian forces have taken the Severnaya mine shaft and the significant refuse mound there. They've also entered the power substation between Toretsk and Novogorodskoe.


In Novgorodskoe Ukrainian forces are in full retreat. The situation at the phenol plant and the school is unclear but Ukrainian forces are pulling back from other areas of the village.


The town (effectively a suburb with separate municipal administration) of Zheleznoe/Artemovo has been taken by Russian forces. The fight is now on for Toretsk.


Russian drone strikes against a Ukrainian strong point near Toretsk.


Pokrovsk axis.


Russian forces continue to break through on multiple sections of this axis. Russian forces have taken Nikolaevka, Zhelannoe, Timofeevka, and Novozhelannoe (or most of it, unclear) and Zhuravka. Russian forces have also entered Grodovka and are approaching Novogrodovka at the same time. There's also a salient south of Nikolaevka towards a key refuse mound north of Selidovo. Russia may be intending to take Selidovo. The situation here is consistently bad for Ukraine as Russia continues to gain ground, and take village after village, typically several villages every week.


Russian FPV drone hits another Bradley on the Pokrovsk axis.


Ukraine's head of administration in Pokrovsk is calling on the population to evacuate as Russian forces are a little over 10kms from the town.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kurakhovo axis.

Russian turtle-tank from the 150th MRDiv, near Maksimil'yanovka. Russian advances in this area have practically ceased as the focus has shifted towards areas where Russia has had more success. Ultimately it would not surprise me if the Pokrovsk axis ends up swinging southward and threatening Ukraine's entire defense line in the area from the rear.


Konstantinovka-Ugledar.

Russian forces continue to bite of pieces of ground in the fields east of the road, and are approaching in the road in several more places. Right now the road Konstantinovka-Ugledar is effectively cut.


Russian soldier drops an explosive package into a Ukrainian dugout, somewhere in the Ugledar area.


Zaporozhye front.

Russian drone drops munitions on a Ukrainian soldier hiding in a destroyed tank.


Dnepr front.

Russian forces took 10 POW on the Dnepr islands.


Black Sea/Crimea.


Russian takes out Ukrainian unmanned boats including one right off the shore.


Strikes.

Russia hit the machinebuildling plant in Kramatorsk.


Russia struck the Odessa port again.


Russia carried out a series of strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure targets in Sumy and Chernigov region.


Russia hits a MiG-29 in Aviatorskoe airfield, Dnepropetrovsk region. The jet was apparently being prepared for a mission. Some sources misidentify it as a Su-24M, but I can make out the second tail.


Russia hit an Su-27 in Mirgorod, Poltava region. It's unclear if this is an active jet or a decoy.


Russia hit two Patriot battery positions in Dnepropetrovsk region with Iskander cluster munition variants. However it's unclear how much damage they did, the missile clearly has some issues with the distribution of sub-munitions being relatively sparse. It's very likely the systems were damaged but not destroyed, though it's hard to be sure.


Ukraine hit the Galaktika shopping center in Donetsk.


Ukraine hit the Savasleyka airfield, in Nizhni Novgorod area. Reportedly at least 10 drones hit. This base houses MiG-31s, and at the moment of the strike we can see an Il-76 still there. No word on the extent of the damage.


Interesting bits.

Russian Uragan gets hit by possibly a HIMARS but apparently survives, as this new variant has the armored cabin, same the Mal'va. Russia had plans even pre-war to transition many of their trucks to armored variants but those plans proceeded very slowly. This war has acceleted it.


A Russian Tornado-G MLRS with new longer-ranged missiles. Note how they don't sit neatly in the tubes. This war has pushed Russia to adopt many of their under development projects in a hurry.


A Russian TOS-2 with a drone cage and camo netting.


Russian forces using a rare LuAZ-967, a Soviet light amphibious car.


An obituary for a Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot might be confirmation of a recent Russian reporting claiming one downed.


Ukraine's 44th Mech operating their Leo-1A5s.


Ukraine has started equipping their Kozak armored cars and M113s with Escribano Mechanical Engineering RCWS.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I'm very confused. The comment was about whether Belorus would be able to stop a Ukrainian military incursion along the lines of what Ukraine has done in Kursk region. What does any of that have to do with EU membership?
The above comment I was replying to was on Belorus joining Europe through the E.U your comment appeared to suggest a foreign invasion if such an event happened
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The above comment I was replying to was on Belorus joining Europe through the E.U your comment appeared to suggest a foreign invasion if such an event happened
My comment was a reply to @Fredled stating that Belarus can't repulse a Kursk-style incursion. I believe they can.
 

Fredled

Active Member
(Note: I will reply to previous posts later)

Kerch Birdge:
On August 16th, the Russian Defense Ministry reported an attack of 12 ATACMS on the Kerch Bridge. And claimed to have shot down all of them.
While it's possible that all of the ATACMS have been intercepted, Ukrainians likely targeted the ferry crossing rather than the bridge.
It's better for the Russian air defence commanders to report to Putin that they successfully saved the Kerch Bridge from a massive US/UKR attack than reporting destruction on the ferry crossing.
On the same day Ukraine reported a strike on the Kerch ferry crossing. They dindn't tell anything about the bridge.
At least one picture of a big fire at the crossing was taken on that night. But we have no report of any damage yet.

The reason is that ATACMS are not suitable to destroy bridges. It's very difficult to hit them with enough precision. You need a precision of less than 10m. This is possible in normal times, not in jammed environement. The second reason is that the ATACMS is falling verticaly. Military experts think that they would rather use cruise missiles which could hit the columns, horizontally. That's why there were talks about using Taurus.

The other reason is that the Russians don't transport a lot of military equipement on the bridge for safety reasons. They use mainly ferries.

This time, the links are from the Kiev Post because Ukrinform, the Ukrainian national news agency, didn't post any article about it. Normaly Ukrinform would report such event. Maybe they decided not to report any use of ATACMS at all. I noticed that they rarely mention the name of this type of missile. Or they didn't want to talk about a failed operation. Or they simply forgot. I don't know.

Kursk
Ukrainians reported the destruction of a second bridge in Russia’s Kursk region.
Beside that, there are reports of Russians hastily laying pontoon bridges on the same river.
There are also rumours that the Russian forces was ordered to evacuate the region south of the Seym river. But it's only rumour according to the German milblogger Torsten Heinrich's War and History chanel.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
A drone dangerousely hit a road near the plant (IAEA). Nobody knows what was the target. Probably an Ukrainian drone trying to hit a military vehicle.
IAEA Zaporizhzhia Mission said:
military activity in the area - including very close to the plant - has been intense for the last week. The team has heard frequent explosions, repetitive heavy machine gun and rifle fire and artillery at various distances from the plant.
Grossi said:
Yet again we see an escalation of the nuclear safety and security dangers facing the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. I remain extremely concerned and reiterate my call for maximum restraint from all sides and for strict observance of the five concrete principles established for the protection of the plant
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
I don't know that this is true. It's one thing to be dissatisfied with your government. It's another to be happy with a foreign invasion.
Seaspear said:
Do they really believe that applying to join the E.U would be so easy for them , the ideals of the E.U hardly amount to a foreign invasion , it might also be that having provided much of its war materials to Russia ,Russia can be more direct in stopping such a movement away from its sphere of influence
You have to remember the context. Belarussians voted for a pro-EU president and Lukashenko was forced to cancel the election to stay in office. The elected candidate was jailed and his whife escaped to Lithuania.
Therefore, he doesn't want to be too much involved in the war, despite expressing support to Putin, because he knows that this war is very unpopular among Belarussians.
People in Belarussia have more contacts with Europe because the border between Belarussia and Lithuania is still open. Belarus is even facilitating tourism to attract foreigners (mainly Lithuanians and Latvians) and get foreign currencies. Belarussian Spa resorts are very popular among Lithuanians because of their low price and good quality. They don't want to lose this sole touristical attraction. This is another reason not to be involved in the war.

In this context, he cannot be sure that all of his soldiers would risk their lives to defend Belarus against Ukrainians. One thing is accepting to be deployed. Another thing is accepting to be killed for your country. I'm very surprised by the current motivation of the Russians soldiers because they have the same mentality. But mentalities changed in Russia during the last 3 years and became much more mationalist, much more in agreement with the official propaganda. I don't think we would see the same with Belorussisans.
Lukashenko has certainly some loyal, puo-russian nationalist, units. But not the entire army, where you have normal people.

The Belorussian are increasingly wishing more connections with Europe, and joing the EU in the long term. They see the relative success of eastern Europe. Putin and Lukashenko are doing everything to stop that.

_______________________
Feanor said:
Another HIMARS gets hit. This one we can make out fairly clearly. Note this is likely the largest one-time losses of Ukraine's long range HIMARS and M-270 MLRS systems, losing 4 systems in rapid succession. I suspect this is a combination of improved Russian reconnaissance capabilities, and Ukraine having to bring them closer to the front lines to hit targets in Kursk region.
Probably both. Ukrainians are maybe less cautious about preserving HIMARS and other things since they want to strike deeper beyong Russian lines. Maybe also because they have more units available.

Feanor said:
Russia hits what looks like an IRIS-T position in Sumy region. However the lack of secondary explosions suggests that this might be a decoy.
At the end of the video we can see that the launcher is still standing. The charge exploded right next to it.

Feanor said:
Russia hit two Patriot battery positions in Dnepropetrovsk region with Iskander cluster munition variants. However it's unclear how much damage they did, the missile clearly has some issues with the distribution of sub-munitions being relatively sparse. link: VK
On the picture we can see that, at least, the launcher was not hit. Other objects don't seem to have been hit directly neither but the explosions could have damage them.

Feanor said:
Ukraine hit the Savasleyka airfield, in Nizhni Novgorod area. Reportedly at least 10 drones hit. This base houses MiG-31s, and at the moment of the strike we can see an Il-76 still there. No word on the extent of the damage.
On the video, we can see that the drone explodes behind the row of planes on the foreground. We don't see what it hit on the background.
I'm more surprised that the Russian military counter intellignece agency let such videos being published....

Feanor said:
Russian Uragan gets hit by possibly a HIMARS but apparently survives,
The picture is not representative of a HIMAR rocket attack. We only see a damaged windscreen.

Feanor said:
A Russian Tornado-G MLRS with new longer-ranged missiles. Note how they don't sit neatly in the tubes. This war has pushed Russia to adopt many of their under development projects in a hurry.
Yeah and the diameter is not exactly the same neither. But never mind, if the missiles are launched and fly, that's the most important. ;)

Feanor said:
Russian forces using a rare LuAZ-967, a Soviet light amphibious car. link
Cool. Can carry timber, water, fishing kits, beer, whatever. ==> I want the same! :D

Feanor said:
Note that Ukes started marking their vehicles with symbls, like Russians. Here a cross, In the Kursk Oblast, we see triangles...

Feanor said:
A couple of Ukrainian soldiers mock a Russian civilian. One of them is wearing a German WWII-style helmet with the SS marking on it. I think enough has been said about the ugly trend of Ukrainian soldiers wearing far right and neo-Nazi insignia.
For Russians and Ukrainians the name of Kursk is highly symbolical. And so is the German WW2 SS helmet. It reminds the Russians of the last time Russia had been invaded.
From what I see in the video, he wears it more by humour than by political opinion. Like, "Putin call us nazi. Well, look at my SS helmet." :D

Feanor said:
After the nice news stories in western media about Russian soldiers looting stores, I wonder if anyone will cover this? Here's a pair of Ukrainian soldiers in a store in Sudzha. I believe the videos speak for themselves.
The video doesn't show if they brougth back the carts to the cart rack. But I assume that they did.

:D RTFLMAO :D I love the part when he says "20 Hrivnia", not rubble. LOL.
Note, this guy is famous on TikTok (I will try to get a link later). Unkike the guy with the SS helmet, his humour is very positive.

Feanor said:
Ukraine has been spotted removing conscript POWs and what appear to be civilians from Sudzha. Note, both sides have been seen having POWs change into civilian clothing before, due to their uniforms being in bad shape from combat, so for military age males these may well be Russian soldiers.
Or because they changed their clothes to avoid arrest. Obviousely, these were suspected Russian soldier disguised as civilian.
(I love the wooden ladder... they realy are in Russia)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
You have to remember the context. Belarussians voted for a pro-EU president and Lukashenko was forced to cancel the election to stay in office. The elected candidate was jailed and his whife escaped to Lithuania.
Therefore, he doesn't want to be too much involved in the war, despite expressing support to Putin, because he knows that this war is very unpopular among Belarussians.
People in Belarussia have more contacts with Europe because the border between Belarussia and Lithuania is still open. Belarus is even facilitating tourism to attract foreigners (mainly Lithuanians and Latvians) and get foreign currencies. Belarussian Spa resorts are very popular among Lithuanians because of their low price and good quality. They don't want to lose this sole touristical attraction. This is another reason not to be involved in the war.

In this context, he cannot be sure that all of his soldiers would risk their lives to defend Belarus against Ukrainians. One thing is accepting to be deployed. Another thing is accepting to be killed for your country. I'm very surprised by the current motivation of the Russians soldiers because they have the same mentality. But mentalities changed in Russia during the last 3 years and became much more mationalist, much more in agreement with the official propaganda. I don't think we would see the same with Belorussisans.
Lukashenko has certainly some loyal, puo-russian nationalist, units. But not the entire army, where you have normal people.

The Belorussian are increasingly wishing more connections with Europe, and joing the EU in the long term. They see the relative success of eastern Europe. Putin and Lukashenko are doing everything to stop that.
Again there's a big difference between Lukashenko joining Russia's war of his own accord and Belarus getting invaded by Ukrainian forces. Remember the scenario; stopping a Ukrainian incursion.

The picture is not representative of a HIMAR rocket attack. We only see a damaged windscreen.
Yes and no. If you rewind my updates and look at the photo of the Mal'va damaged by a HIMARS strike (we got close up photos that showed the little tungsten balls embedded in the armor) the windshield looked very similar. This is also a BM-27, i.e. a relatively long range system. So it would make sense for a counter-battery strike against it to involve something longer ranged. Lastly Ukraine has used HIMARS as one of their primary counter-battery fire tools. Putting those together I think it's possible we're looking at the results of a HIMARS strike.

Cool. Can carry timber, water, fishing kits, beer, whatever. ==> I want the same! :D
One of the comments that has come up in Russian sources over and over again is that they badly need more vehicles of this kind at every level.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The situation in the Donbas is developing rapidly. Ukrainian forces are retreating across a wide arc south of the Russian pincer on the Pokrovsk axis. The recent Russian push south puts them nearly on the outskirts of Selidovo and threatens the supply lines for Ukrainian forces along the Volchya, so it appears they withdrew. This southern push in this area actually threatens Ukrainian positions around Karlovka and all the way down to Kurakhovo in principle. It probably depends on whether Russia can execute and support a simultaneous attack southward and westward out of this salient. Around Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk Russian forces appear to have taken both refuse mounds in the eastern suburbs, and are finishing up taking Novgorodskoe. From the electrical substation they may already be on the outskirts of Nelipovka (sources disagree). The battle for Toretsk proper has effectively begun. I think there's one thing we can say with confidence. If the intent of Ukraine's push into Kursk was to divert Russian efforts from the Donbas, this has not happened.
 

Fredled

Active Member
News from Ukraine:
Two head of recruitment's centers arrested over a draft evasion scheme.
Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office said:
According to the case materials, such services cost $37,000 per person. This amount included the preparation of a full package of documents, including fake medical certificates and support during a military medical examination.
Russian tanks shelled Kozacha Lopan for several hours.
head of the Derhachi city military administration said:
during the last three hours, a Russian tank struck the village at least ten times, damaging private houses and energy infrastructure.
Residents of Pokrovsk have two weeks to evacuate
It looks like the Ukrainian leadership already already planify the fall of Pokrovsk. Accepting the fact that the town won't be defendable.

Serhii Dobriak - Pokrovsk city military administration said:
Given the speed of the advance of the Russian army, residents of Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, have a week or two to evacuate.

as the Russian army advances, the pace of evacuation from Pokrovsk has increased, with 500-600 people leaving the city every day.

Yesterday, 490 people left. Only 135 of them left by train. And the rest left in their vehicles, with things, with a trailer. We can safely drive at least 1,000 people. There are resources for this
Germany to send two more IRIS-T systems, 30 Leopard tanks
Wolfgang Buchner spokesperson of the German government said:
Two more IRIS-T SLM air defence systems, two IRIS-T SLS launchers; ten Gepard anti-aircraft guns; 16 PzH 2000, Zuzana and RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers; combat drones; several thousand rounds of artillery ammunition and ammunition for armored vehicles, and a further 30 Leopard 1A5 tanks will be transferred by the end of 2024
Denmark allows its weapons to be used in Russia

Offers the twentieth military donation package (no detail available)

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said:
You can't tell Ukraine not to go to the other side ... and not to interrupt the supply chain [of weapons by the Russian army]. This is a defensive operation that aims to interrupt Russian supply chains to Russian military units in the occupied Ukrainian territory
Blaze raging at Russian oil depot for second day after "debris of destroyed drones" fell on fuel tanks. Link from Russian source (in Russian)

The commander of the Rostov's air defence is proud to announce that all the drones attempting to attack the oil depot have been destroyed: None of them returned to their base. :D LOL

Swedish Pansarbandvagn 302 infantry fighting vehicle is equipped with an automatic aircraft cannon from scrapped Saab 29 warplane.
It's interesting that Swedes doesn't use a gun designed for ground vehicles but save money by using aircraft guns.
These IFV's will be delivered to Ukraine. (More details on wikipedia)


Fifth Finnish volunteer died in the war.
Not the first time that the report foreign soldiers killed in Ukraine. I always wondered why Ukrinform reports on this. I always assumed that it's not very good to admit that your regime is defended by mercenaries. But they see it in another way: There is an international community of volunteers giving their life for liberty...

Russian invaders stole animals from the Askania-Nova Biosphere Reserve in the Kherson region.
I wonder why Russians did this... what's the value of these animals?
Ukrinform said:
four criminal proceedings have been initiated into the illegal removal of animals from the Askania-Nova Biosphere Reserve. Damage incurred is estimated at over UAH 60 million.

The reserve maintained and conserved native steppe habitat and endemic species while also caring for rare and exotic animal species from around the world
According to the illustration, there were zebras in the reserve. A sort of open air zoo, for local safari?

______________________________________

Feanor said:
If the intent of Ukraine's push into Kursk was to divert Russian efforts from the Donbas, this has not happened.
Yes and No. According to the ISW, some troops have been moved from the DonBas But not in enough quantities to change the course of events.

ISW said:
Russia has begun moving certain elements from Ukraine to respond to the situation in Kursk Oblast, but the types of units that are redeploying, and where they are redeploying from, is a strong indicator that the Russian military command is still prioritizing ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. CNN reported on August 15 that two senior US officials stated that the Russian military command has redeployed multiple "brigade-sized" elements made up of at least 1,000 personnel each from unspecified areas to Kursk Oblast.[23] Two sources familiar with Western intelligence reportedly stated that the Russian military command is not moving larger and better-trained elements from unspecified areas of Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, with one source stating that the lack of substantial Russian redeployments may be because the Russian military command is just starting this process or because there are not enough forces to conduct redeployments. CNN also reported that US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby stated that Russia has not "given up" military operations in northeastern or southern Ukraine, where active fighting is ongoing. ISW has not observed reports in the open source that the Russian military command is redeploying entire brigades from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast but has observed reports of elements of Russian regiments redeploying to the area.[24] ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command is pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast but will likely be extremely averse to pulling Russian military units engaged in combat from priority sectors in Donetsk Oblast out of concerns about slowing the tempo of Russian operations in these areas
link

Most of the reinforcement to the Kursk Region come from inside Russia. Which is also not bad because it put more pressure on the military and on the Russian society as more people who were not supposed to are sent to the front.
Everything will depends on the ability for these internal forces to repel the Ukrainians and for the latter, to hold their positions. If they can't, Putin will be forced to remove more troops from the DonBas. I predicted that it could take several weeks before they have to.

This will really show how strong the Russian army is after 2 and half years in Ukraine.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Im not sure if it was a deliberate goal of the operations in Kursk by the Ukraine forces but the reported capture of of two thousand troops a large percentage conscript's can be swapped for Ukrainian forces, with many held in poor conditions and denied access by the ICRC ,This article is amongst many on the abuse of prisoners by Russia
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Im not sure if it was a deliberate goal of the operations in Kursk by the Ukraine forces but the reported capture of of two thousand troops a large percentage conscript's can be swapped for Ukrainian forces, with many held in poor conditions and denied access by the ICRC ,This article is amongst many on the abuse of prisoners by Russia
They definitely didn't capture two thousand troops. This is complete nonsense. The scale of the engagement makes this impossible. We saw one round of footage of a larger number of Russian POWs, that's it. Two thousand POWs is massive.

Russian invaders stole animals from the Askania-Nova Biosphere Reserve in the Kherson region.
I wonder why Russians did this... what's the value of these animals?

According to the illustration, there were zebras in the reserve. A sort of open air zoo, for local safari?

______________________________________
They were probably evacuated away from the fighting.

Yes and No. According to the ISW, some troops have been moved from the DonBas But not in enough quantities to change the course of events.

link
I'd love to know how they know. The 810th MarBde was featured prominently but they're currently part of battlegroup north.

Most of the reinforcement to the Kursk Region come from inside Russia. Which is also not bad because it put more pressure on the military and on the Russian society as more people who were not supposed to are sent to the front.
Everything will depends on the ability for these internal forces to repel the Ukrainians and for the latter, to hold their positions. If they can't, Putin will be forced to remove more troops from the DonBas. I predicted that it could take several weeks before they have to.

This will really show how strong the Russian army is after 2 and half years in Ukraine.
Ukrainian losses in kit here are massive. So the question is, how long before Ukrainian offensive efforts peter out? That's what will likely determine whether Russia has to halt offensive operations elsewhere.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Agreed, the losses of equipment by Ukraine appear to be truly quite a bit. And good kit too.

Here are the Russian units that were so far identified in Kursk as of today:

IMG_6578.jpeg

Taken from a tracking’s crew Twitter post.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
As Ukraine moves west in Kursk they have been using the natural barrier of the Seym river to isolate the area. Of the 3 main bridges they have recently destroyed the third. Russia as installed one, and possibly two pontoon bridges, so they can probably evacuate much of their equipment depending on how this plays out. I have seen a report that Russia has demolished 2 smaller bridges at the western end of this area. If Russia destroyed these bridges they are probably willing to retreat from this area, and defend at the river.



The possible 2nd Pontoon bridge.


Russia ensures that the drones attacking the oil depot are completely destroyed by incinerating them.



Apparently the commander, Junior Lieutenant Andrey Kochev, of the 1st Motor Rifle Bn, of the 810th Marine Brigade was captured in an action near Korenevo.


Russia continues to push hard in the donbos.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
A link from Tom Cooper on what he perceives while peering through the fog. He talks mostly about Kursk, and the issues there. I will put one Quote here.

Quote: It is ‘nervy’ because they can never be sure about the status of their own troops. Take the 200th Arctic Motor-Rifle Brigade as example. This arrived within the combat zone about a week ago. While driving from Kursk down the R200 highway, it was ambushed at least two times, losing troops and vehicles in the process. Meanwhile, it’s somewhere near Bolshoe Soldatskoe (which, BTW, turned out not to be under the Ukrainian control, but also not under the Russian): there, it’s constantly ‘needled’ by Ukrainian raids. Lost one ‘vehicle and three troops on its northern flank’, a ‘tank and three troops on its southern flank’, ‘two trucks and four troops in its rear’ and so on… as a result, neither its own commander, nor the FSB in charge of this entire operation can ever say that right now the unit is ready for the next combat operation. One of its elements has been hit, needs reorganisation, then, while this is going on, another part gets hit, and then another… ‘Threat is everywhere’ around the unit, nobody knows where are Ukrainians, and the result is a chaos…


And several weekly updates from Don Hill.




This fourth update is a rant on how the Ukrainian leaders are failing to ensure proper defenses which results in loss of terrain, and troops. The soldiers are burnt out, tired both mentally, and physically. It is up to the leaders to push them to dig in, and establish proper interlocking fields of fire, or they are vulnerable.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
Ukraine is playing "wack a mole" with pontoon bridges. Russia needs bridges to Hold the area south of the Seym river. The video here is on strikes on the bridges, and the engineering vehicles that install them. The Russians have evacuated the tiny area west of the river, and east of the border with Ukraine. They hold a good chunk of territory south of the river that has become difficult to support.


Russian military correspondent Roman Saponkov blames HIMARS and calls for a major effort to eliminate them.


Professor" Dmitry Evstafiev is blaming everything on the Rich without naming anyone. I do not hear him offering a solution.

x.com

Tom cooper goes into a lot of detail into what he thinks is going on. He seems to have much of it right. At least it is a SWAG overview of the situation today.


An airstrike on Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region. Reportidly this is a Russian observation post.


I have seen a few of these prisoner confession videos from both sides. I always have to wonder if they are true, or just staged propaganda. I hope the following video is not true, but suspect it may be.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Tom cooper goes into a lot of detail into what he thinks is going on. He seems to have much of it right. At least it is a SWAG overview of the situation today.

Some thoughts

Unironically quoting official Ukrainian stats is a waste of time and makes much of what he claims suspect. Especially when we're talking about downed munitions which Ukraine has admitted to lying about in the past. They downed very few Iskanders but 25% of Kinzhals (an airlaunched Iskander that flies at greater speed)?

He talks about casualty numbers, and then disclaims the number of 60 destroyed vehicles, but we get something close to that amount just from the videos I've posted links to on here including two ugly incidents where company sized formations were destroyed, one losing ~9 MRAPs/armored cars, the other losing 7 BTR-4s destroyed, possibly 1 captured, and an M113 destroyed. Is that not evidence of large Ukrainian losses? Or maybe he doesn't consider that large? There's also the steady trickle of footage of Ukrainian POWs cropping up. Not massive numbers, but let's consider that the people surrendering did so likely after a fight. Meaning some part of the formation they were in took losses, and they're the surrendered survivors. Overall the continuing stream of Ukrainian vehicles getting hit in Kursk region (there's another small bucket in the next update) suggests that Ukraine has taken quite significant casualties. And I hope Tom Cooper knows, both sides use UAZ "Bukhanka" vans (link ).

I find it interesting that he mocks the "confirmed by video" crowd, but just takes the Ukrainian map at face value with no evidence whatsoever? Some of the events he's talking about don't seem to have any reflection in actual materials available to us raising questions. How does he know any of this?

Lastly he denies the concentration of Ukrainian troops in Zaporozhye reported in Russian sources (though also without any evidence). I have to wonder though. He clearly sympathizes with Ukraine. Let's say he was aware of Ukrainian troop concentrations in Zaporozhye in preparation for an attack. Would he honestly report on it knowing that wider awareness could theoretically jeopardize Ukrainian chances for success? Given that he refers to Ukrainian contacts, if he was directly asked by a "Ukrainian contact" to disavow such information, would he do it?

I find the entire thing very strange and see no reason to think he got much of it right. It reads like mildly above average quality "Ukraine stronk" social media.

EDIT: The question of Ukrainian loaf vans peaked my curiosity and after some searching, here's a handful of examples of them fulfilling all kinds of roles. In this search I also came across many examples of these vans for sale used in Ukraine. I don't think it's a secret for anyone here that both Russian and Ukrainian armed forces routinely receive donated cars, trucks, and vans. So while I think it's clear in principle that Russia has far more of these vehicles, the ownership of a specific vehicle requires PID in each instance, much like a BMP-2 would.


The final nail in the coffin is a quick look at lostarmour. When you filter auto losses for Ukraine by UAZ-452 you get quite a few results.

 
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