The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Some interesting revelations today from Syrsky concerning air defence.


Below, I am going to copy some (well, all) numbers from the article.

According to Syrsky, from the beginning of the invasion (Feb 24, 22), Russian missiles and UAVs hit 11,879 targets. Without defining what constitutes military or civilian targets/infrastructure, he claimed that 6,203 of those were civilian and 5,676 were military targets. He stated that Russia used 9,590 missiles and 13,997 UAVs in an attempt to strike those targets; of those, 2,429 missiles and 5,972 UAVs were intercepted.

Basic math suggests that the average intercept rate for missiles is about 25%, while for UAVs that rate is about 43%. Quite a striking difference between Syrsky’s numbers provided here and daily Ministry of Defense briefings that often suggest intercept rates between 80 and 100%. One can look up previous posts in this thread discussing the subject matter and doubting the reality of the reported numbers, which never made any sense.

Here is some breakdown of the numbers by the type of missiles, according to the general. 67% of Kalibr, X-555/101, and R-500 cruise missiles were intercepted. On the other hand, only 22% of guide missiles, such as, X-59, X-35, X-31, and “other similar” were intercepted. The reported difference in numbers is explained by the fact that guided missiles are usually used where setting up layered air defence is not feasible (ie, frontline and “border facilities”).

This part is like a thunder in the blue sky, to be honest. As opposed to the daily briefings, only 4.5% of the ballistic missiles, such as Iskander, Tochka-U, and North Korean KN-23 were intercepted out of 1,388 launched.

S-300/400 were used to hit 4,293 ground targets, of which 3,196 were civilian infrastructure, according to the chief, and only 0.63% (not a typo, at least not mine) of those were intercepted.

Of 362 X-22 and X-32 that were launched, only 2 were shot down. While there were previous claims by the MoD of these being shot down periodically, then denial by what’s his name… Ignat, stating that they never shot down any of those, this is the first official statement (I clearly do not put the MoD’s briefings into the official category) that “confirms” interception of this type of missiles, I believe, but stand to be corrected.

Interestingly, he also claimed that Onyx missiles were launched 211 times and 12 were intercepted. At the same time, Kinzhal (X-47M2) was launched 111 times and 28 were shot down, 25%. Syrsky also said that only 15 were military targets out of 83 facilities hit by these missiles.

Finally, 6 Zircon missiles were ever launched, 2 were intercepted, and 4 hit civilian targets.

This part is a bit confusing to me, so maybe someone who gets a better grip here can chime in to clarify. So for the UAVs, he said that the statistics were combined for Shaheds and Lancets for the total number of launched drones of 13,315, of which 8,836 were intercepted, or about 66% (the article says 63%, go figure). This is clearly very different from the UAV numbers cited above from the same article. What am I missing here?

So here it is, who knows how truthful. Quite a grim picture though compared to the usual “we got hem all, but many facilities have been hit nonetheless” type of thing.

Edit: Just saw a tab open while closing others: as opposed to all denials from the “western” governments (the only denials I read about myself were by the Americans and Germans), Podolyak claimed on August 15 that the Kursk operation was discussed with “western partners” and they new about the incursion.

 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
Since the Ukrainians do not have total coverage in the skies against missiles and drones with their missile defence units, is it possible that he may have been referring to where there was coverage ?
 

Fredled

Active Member
The numbers of downed missiles quoted by Syrskyi is the same as the number given by Ukrinform. So there is no surprise here.

The number of down UAVs quoted by Syrskyi is twice less than the number given by Ukrinform. I think because Syrskyi refers to Shahed types UAV's while Ukrinform add all types of drones, from ali-baba quadcopters to lancets, and including observation drones. If so, that would match some articles where Ukrinform stated a total of Shaheds fired at Ukraine and/or intercepted that I have read in the past. I don't remember the exact numbers but it was in this range of numbers.

Ukrinform also never wrote any article saying that "all misssiles and drone were intercepted" when they talk about the whole of Ukraine. However, sometimes, they say that all the missiles fired at Kiev were intercepted or that all Shaheds were downed in the air on a given night, or things like that.


Ukrainform also report on a daily or twice daily basis, the destructions and casualities caused by Russian missile strikes. Everyday they report several building destroyed and several civilian killed or injured. Meaning they don't deny that Russian missiles hit their targets or at least cause some damages.
They also report the result of shellings. Sometimes it;s not clear wheter it's shelling or short range missiles or long range missiles, but usualy they tell what it was.
Examples from today only:
link 1
link 2
link 3

I don't know who writes article even more embellishing than Ukrinofrm...

seaspear said:
Since the Ukrainians do not have total coverage in the skies against missiles and drones with their missile defence units, is it possible that he may have been referring to where there was coverage ?
When the first Patriot and IRIS-T arrived in Ukraine, Russia used to strike with long range missile almost only energy infraastructures, residential areas, and sometimes a depot or a factory which could have amilitary use. The new air defence units where therefore positioned where the Russians were striking the most often, notably around Kiev.
At this time, the interception rate for long range missiles was around 65% ona verage and up to 80% on some particular days.
For a while the Russians kept on striking the same areas again and again, not taking care about the huge rate of failures. Either because they hoped that the next day, Ukes would run out of ammunitions, or because they simply didn't report failures to their hierarchy. The reaction, or lack of it, of the Russian central command sometimes can only be explained by them not knowing what happens on the ground.

Then Russians finally understood and started to use more different and more advanced types of missiles and to strike other targets, far from the air defence systems provided by the West. They started , among other things, to strike military targets at, or near the front line. Two years ago, it would be unthinkable to waste an Iskander to destroy a rocket launcher, now that's what they do regularly.

Then the rate of interception plunged.
It's also possible that some air defence units have beem destroyed by Russian strikes. That ammunitions run low. Worsening the results.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The numbers of downed missiles quoted by Syrskyi is the same as the number given by Ukrinform. So there is no surprise here.

The number of down UAVs quoted by Syrskyi is twice less than the number given by Ukrinform. I think because Syrskyi refers to Shahed types UAV's while Ukrinform add all types of drones, from ali-baba quadcopters to lancets, and including observation drones. If so, that would match some articles where Ukrinform stated a total of Shaheds fired at Ukraine and/or intercepted that I have read in the past. I don't remember the exact numbers but it was in this range of numbers.
Don’t see the numbers at Ukrinform in the link you provided. Ukrinform cites the numbers supplied by the Ministry of Defense, they do not do their own counts or anything like that.

In the article, Syrsky clearly refers to Shaheds and Lancets, as mentioned. Why two different numbers and statistics are provided is unknown to me. To include all drones, including the “ali-baba quadcopters”, this number probably looks closer to a daily use, lol, not from Feb 22, 2024. Even with the 13 whatever thousand, it doesn’t necessarily look plausible if you include Lancets even. But I cannot speak with certainty. Feanor used to post some sort of count of Lancet launches or something of the sort. I wonder what that count looks like now.

Ukrinform also never wrote any article saying that "all misssiles and drone were intercepted" when they talk about the whole of Ukraine. However, sometimes, they say that all the missiles fired at Kiev were intercepted or that all Shaheds were downed in the air on a given night, or things like that.
”Never” is a hyperbole and is usually not true. Such is the case here as well. As mentioned above, Ukrinform only reports what is said by the Ministry of Defense in regard to these intercepts. The latter certainly said on numerous occasions that everything fired was intercepted or reported intercept rate above 90%. A few examples below, just what I quickly found via google images.

Ukrinform reporting 100% intercept of Shaheds and cruise missiles, but both Kinzhals got through:



Ukrainska Pravda reporting in June 100% intercept of Shaheds, nearly 80% for cruise missiles, 50% for ballistics (MoD’s graphic could not fit in one screenshot):


88% of cruise missiles were shot down:



All of 10 launched Kinzhals were intercepted (!), as well as an unreasonable number of cruise missiles (no indication of the number launched, but I suspect the reported intercept rate is well above 90%):



All of 89 (!) Shaheds being downed by the Ukrainian Air Defences:



And so on. This is a regular occurrence, not exceptions of some sort. If Ukrinform reported any of the above, then those would be the numbers they reported.

Ukrainform also report on a daily or twice daily basis, the destructions and casualities caused by Russian missile strikes. Everyday they report several building destroyed and several civilian killed or injured. Meaning they don't deny that Russian missiles hit their targets or at least cause some damages.
Just like the Russian MoD, the Ukrainian MoD reports these incidents as mostly caused by the debris of intercepted drones/missiles. Civilian infrastructure, such as an apartment building or a hospital, for example, are often reported as targeted strike by an asset that got through past the AD. Remember the children hospital not that long ago (or so it seems) was reported as a targeted strike while the remaining missiles were reportedly intercepted but the debris hit industrial infrastructure? This report was being released by the MoD, at the same time as people were posting videos of cruise missiles slamming into Artyom plant one after another with zero intercepts. That was in Kiev, most protected place in Ukraine; and those were cruise missiles, reported by Syrsky to have the highest intercept rate among all kinds.

It's also possible that some air defence units have beem destroyed by Russian strikes. That ammunitions run low. Worsening the results.
I think it is not unreasonable to ask here about the damage/destruction of air defense assets, such as Iris-T, Patriot, NASAMS, etc given the intercept rates provided by Syrsky yesterday. For instance, every Iris-T that was hit by the Russians was immediately declared being a decoy. This is literally so. Patriot damage and destruction was admitted twice, I believe. This is only from the strikes that we saw visuals of provided by the Russians or Ukrainian civilians. So I believe this is not an unreasonable question to ask. For example, see the number of videos of Ukrainian strikes on S-300/400. The main difference here is probably proximity to the frontline and being able to observe and record the strikes.
 

Fredled

Active Member
It's mot true thar they report 90% rates almost all the time. It's been a while since last time. One example that you posted is 8 months old, the other two years old. I don;t know for the other ones. But personally I didn't see such report for a while. And, IMO, it's not unreasonable that they had excellent results from time to time. If all the batteries were replenished and the missiles flew where the Patriots were, they down most of the incoming missiles. Shaheds are very easy to shot down. But more recently, Russians improved them slightly.
Yet, it's true that Ukrainians will advertise their best performances while keeping mum on their failings. That's normal.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's mot true thar they report 90% rates almost all the time. It's been a while since last time. One example that you posted is 8 months old, the other two years old. I don;t know for the other ones. But personally I didn't see such report for a while. And, IMO, it's not unreasonable that they had excellent results from time to time. If all the batteries were replenished and the missiles flew where the Patriots were, they down most of the incoming missiles. Shaheds are very easy to shot down. But more recently, Russians improved them slightly.
Yet, it's true that Ukrainians will advertise their best performances while keeping mum on their failings. That's normal.
The question is not one of norms or expectations. The question is whether one should take Ukrainian data of this sort at face value. Your own statement strongly suggests that one should not. They will mislead the public by advertising their best performance and "keeping mum" about their failings. In other words someone who purports to know what they're talking about when reporting on the situation in Ukraine (Tom Cooper for example) but then quotes official numbers of downed inbounds without showing any awareness of this trend to "advertise and keep mum" is potentially not a credible commentator.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
It's mot true thar they report 90% rates almost all the time. It's been a while since last time. One example that you posted is 8 months old, the other two years old. I don;t know for the other ones. But personally I didn't see such report for a while. And, IMO, it's not unreasonable that they had excellent results from time to time. If all the batteries were replenished and the missiles flew where the Patriots were, they down most of the incoming missiles. Shaheds are very easy to shot down. But more recently, Russians improved them slightly.
Yet, it's true that Ukrainians will advertise their best performances while keeping mum on their failings. That's normal.
I beg to differ. First, the first screenshot of Ukrinform article shows the date of May 26, less than 3 months ago. The Pravda article is from June 24 (if I recall correctly), less than 2 months ago. Those were also random results from a quick google search, not some targeted search for a desired outcome, lol.

Moreover, however, if you are a Facebook user, you can follow their daily reports of intercepts here:


I am not a Facebook user and, without having to log in, can only see as far as yesterday’s report:



It says that Russians sent 2 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) and 16 Shaheds. The fate of the ballistic missiles is unknown, but 14 out of 16 Shaheds were shot down (~90%) and the other 2 fell on their own or otherwise evaporated because no explosions were reported.

If I were on Facebook, I would scroll down and do a little mental exercise up to a few month back and calculate the stats from their reports. I would bet my socks that the picture would be quite different from that described by Syrsky. I would also bet one sock that this exercise would produce Shahed average intercept rate of at least 85% (I wanted to say 90%, but went with the safety net since I want to keep my sock).

Side note, I do not find Tom Cooper to be a credible commentator myself. Lots of what I read (not much, to be honest, since I do not see a point) seems to be simply made up stuff, lots of twisted accounts, etc. Whether this is actually the case or not, I have no idea.

Edit: Google search provided this result first for the number of Lancets used in the war (the article itself doesn’t open, but looks to be the manufacturer’s website):

IMG_6615.jpeg

So add another 500 (is that reasonable?) to account for July and August. This reduces Syrsky’s reported mix of UAVs to about 11,500 Shaheds.

Edit 2: Ok, I couldn’t help myself and asked the wife to login to Facebook so that I could do a little count. Since I am already over-invested into this, lol, I only added up Shaheds, without looking at missiles at all. I did that for August and July (it then took the page back to the top for whatever reason and I was not willing to scroll down back to June again (on the phone), so we have just over two months of reported data). First, I want to say that I am glad I went with a bit of a safety there and I get to keep my sock. Second, here are the numbers:

- reported Shahed launches in August took place 446 times, and were intercepted 382 times, or 0.857 of all Shaheds were intercepted (that was close!);
- in July, 424 were launched and 373 shot down, or 0.880 of those launched were intercepted.

Those rates are rounded to 3 decimals.

So far in August, on 11 occasions it was reported that all UAVs launched that day were shot down (most were 24) and the worst day was 2 out of 10 (20%) a couple of days ago, followed by 50 out of 69 (72%) and 17 out of 23 (74%). If we remove these three worst days from the calculations, the intercept in August improves to 0.921.

In July, 7 occasion of absolute superiority were reported (most were 89, followed by 32). The worst day was 11 out if 19 (58%), followed by 25 out of 38 (66%) and 14 out of 20 (70%). Without the three worst records, the average stat improves to 0.931.

To note, there were a few days missing in July - ie no reports or no raids? Many or most of those reported as not intercepted are said to had been lost, jammed, or otherwise crashed “harmless”.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I came back to the mental exercise of intercepted UAV reports and looked at a couple more months. June and May were quite supreme for shooting down Shaheds. Here is what we have:

- June reportedly saw 328 Shaheds launched and 309 shot down, or 0.942 of all Shaheds were intercepted;
- May was even more epic because of 357 reportedly launched 348 were intercepted, or 0.975 of all launches.

In June, 7 reports indicated perfection with all UAVs being shot down. There were a couple of bad days when 9 out of 13 were intercepted (69%), followed by 22 out of 27 (81%) and 22 out of 27 (81%). If we remove the three and another one - 48 out of 53 (91%) - the intercept rate for June would be approaching perfection or there about.

In May, 13 reports suggested the perfect score. The worst days saw 17 out of 20 UAVs intercepted (85%), followed by… well, the rest of the reports stated either perfection or 1 Shahed short to get there.

Anyway, for all intents and purposes, I am quite done with this exercise

I guess it should be also noted that the Ukrainian MoD’s reports indicate that there were 1,555 Shaheds launched in the last 3.5 or so months. There were days with no reports of any kind and days that only reported missile launches/intercepts. Very rough calculation, assuming the same number of these UAVs launched every 3.5 months, suggests that about 9,000 Shaheds were sent to Ukraine so far. Add 2,500 or so Lancets mentioned in one of my previous posts and we are coming up about 2,500 UAVs short, as reported by Syrsky. That would be about 100 UAVs short per month or ~20%, based on the current launches, which isn’t that bad, really.

At the same time, I don’t see how they can know how many Lancets, for example, were launched to begin with. I guess to conclude, it would be nice to see Shahed launches and intercepts separately from everything else because everything else is a whole different animal, really, that serves completely different purpose. Of course, the big assumption here is that the provided numbers are valid to begin with.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk front.

The latest maps from Suriyak maps. Russia has apparently recaptured Spal'noe, while Ukraine advances north-west towards the Seym river. The situation remains relatively murky though more clear now.


Ukrainian forces inside Apanasovka village.


Russian forces have retaken Nechaev village, Kursk region. Note we don't have good confirmation of Ukraine controlling it so this might be Russia re-entering an empty village. It seems there are several locales where Russia withdrew to a defense line from, but that Ukraine never actually took.


Ukraine continues pummeling Russian pontoon bridges across the Seym. Meanwhile the latest footage suggests that the last bridge across the Seym may not be destroyed, but just damaged. Bridges can often be hard targets to thoroughly destroy.


Ukrainian strikes inside Glushkovo village.


Ukrainian Sivalka VM-5 MLRS firing, somewhere in Kursk region.


Russian airstrikes on allegedly a Ukrainian column moving towards Korenevo. Reportedly this attack was ultimately able to reach the outskirts of Korenevo.


Russian Tornado-S strike on allegedly a Ukrainian column in the Kursk border area.


One of the shots from the FCS of a Russian helo suggests a second CR-2 was destroyed in Kursk region.


A Ukrainian attack took place in the village of Russkaya Konopel'ka. We have a Ukrainian tank getting hit by a loitering munition, 4 Kozak armored cars destroyed, a BMP-2 shot up by a Russian BMP-3 and unverified claims of an M113 destroyed. The vehicle is present but I don't see it destroyed. Maybe damaged? The Russian BMP-3 has extra armor kits and small roof cage. The entire engagement is very chaotic with the BMP-3 enaging the M113 at literally point blank range. There's also some confusion about the BMP-2, from a certain angle it looks like a letter V, but other footage shows it's the Ukrainian triangle marking. Also there's the fact that the drone cage it carries is a Ukrainian style cage. The village itself burns, adding a good amount of smoke to the mixture. And from the angle it almost looks like the BMP-3 drove into the middle of a Ukrainian column and first shot up the M113 fleeing away from it, and then fired on the Kozaks and BMP-2 on the other side. There's footage of Ukrainian infantry moving away from the engagement, suggesting they're withdrawing after losing their vehicles. The treeline they go to gets hit by something, maybe a small drone, maybe a mortar round. Warning footage of corpses. Reportedly combatants from the Russian side involved the 11th VDV, and Wagner fighters.


Other sources suggest the tank was hit near Korenevo.


Ukrainian forces assaulting Russian positions inside Malaya Loktnya. We can see a Marder firing.


A Ukrainian column got ambushed near Sudhza. It had a Oshkosh armored truck, something that looks like an old Kraz (or Ural?), and a Humvee.


Near Ol'govka, we have a BOV from Slovenia destroyed. Ukraine received a batch 26 of these Yugoslav vehicles.


Russian Lancet strike on a Kozak armored car.


Russian drone strikes hit a Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17, and an APC (BTR?) of some sort. Kursk region.


Russian loitering munition strikes on Ukrainian vehicles, types unclear, Kursk area.


Russia hits a Ukrainian tank near Ol'govka.


Ukrainian Roshel Senator burns, Kursk region. I can't tell if this is one we've seen before.


Russian drone strike takes out 2 Ukrainian IMR-2s.


Russian FPV drones striking an M113 and a Kirpi MRAP near Vishnevka, Kursk region.


Ukrainian buggy gets hit by a drone, then when the evacuation team arrives a second drone hits them.


Ukrainian T-64BV and BTR-D destroyed, Kursk region. Both vehicles hit mines and were finished off by drones.


Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17 hit somewhere in Kursk region. Note the fate is unclear, and there's every change the tank survived.


A Russian tank column in Bryansk region near the Troebortnoe checkpoint of allegedly 7 MBTs moving in Kursk region and the opening fire on something. I can't make out all 7 and by my count there are 8 vehicles total but maybe not all MBTs?


Ukrainian truck with a mortar gets hit, Kursk region.


Russia burns a knocked out Ukrainian T-64BV, Kursk region.


Russia strikes and burns down a Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17, near Ol'govka.


A destroyed Ukrainian armored car and allegedly Ukrainian pickup truck, somewhere in Kursk region.


A destroyed and burned out Ukrainian Bushmaster MRAP, near Verkhnyaya Loknya, Kursk region.


A Ukrainian tank fires, hides a tree line but gets hit by a Lancet. It's ultimate fate is unclear.


Russia using a new wire-guided FPV drone in Kursk region. These variants are likely to become more common as a way of countering the effects of EW.


Russian sources report a Ukrainian Su-27 downed while striking Kursk region, but confirmation is lacking.


Ukrainian truck with a mortar gets hit, Kursk region.


It may be the case that the M270 Russia hit in Sumy region was a decoy.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kursk front pt. 2.

Ukrainian POWs, Kursk region.


Russia's 810th MarBde shows off a captured Roshel Senator. I'm reasonably certain this is Kursk region.


Apparently a mass surrender took place of 24 service members from Ukraine's 22nd Mech Bde.


Russian 810th MarBde taking photos with the mess of destroyed MRAPs and armored cars from the last update. The area is apparently under relatively firm Russian control.


Ukraine evacuates a damaged Tunguska, likely the one we saw hit. Note that while it's definitely knocked out, it's very repairable, assuming Ukraine has the parts (considering how few such vehicles they had pre-war and that the manufacturer is Russia).


Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17 towing away a captured T-90M, unclear if the same one we saw earlier or another one.


Ukraine with Turkish Otokar Cobra II armored cars, Dozor-B armored cars, and T-72EA, Kursk region. We also have an Otokar Cobra FAmb.


A rare Ukrainian BMP-1TS in Kursk region.


A Ukrainian Stryker with cages over its hatches, presumably because they are weak points targetted by drones.


Ukraine's Belorussian volunteer formation and fighter from the Forward Observation Group have been spotted in Kursk region.


According to documents captured in a Ukrainian Roshel Senator, the vehicle was delivered in late july of this year.


Russian Grad-1 launcher on a MT-LB chassis, Kursk region. Allegedly this is the "Veterans" volunteer bde.


Satellite imagery of Russian defense lines near the Kursk NPP.


Russia hits Glukhov, Sumy region, allegedly a Ukrainian HQ.


Footage of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian troops. Based on the footage it looks like they were killed in or near cars on the road which lines up with earlier reports of Ukraine firing indiscriminately on any cars on the roads in the first days. Warning footage of corpses.


In Kursk, Kurchatov, and Zheleznogorsk, Russia has begun installing concrete shelters to protect civilians during shelling and missile strikes.


There are reports that Russia has formed an armed Territorial Defense forces in Bryansk region, with a Major General from the VDV in command. Reportedly they are armed. Note it's not clear how reliable or significant this is. We've seen footage of iirc Belgorod TerDef training with civilian AK variants (semi-automatic) but no sight of them in combat.


Russia has now evacuated over 121 000 people from the border area following Ukraine's incursion.


Kharkov front.


Russian forces re-entered the outskirts of Liptsi. It's unclear if Russia is actually attacking or if Ukraine had to abandone some untenable positions once they failed to retake Glubokoe.


After recent Russian advances, there are reports of a failed Ukrainian counter-attack using BTR-4s in Kharkov region. We have what looks like 2 BTR-4s destroyed though 3 claimed.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Giatsint-B, Kharkov region near Veseloe village, getting hit.


Russia hits 3 Ukrainian vehicles, allegedly 2 Humvees and a Stryker, though the IDs are not 100%.


A Ukrainian 2S1 burns, Kharkov region.


Russia's 116th National Guard OsNaz Bde in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod continue, though again at a reduced level.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Oskol front.

Russia substantially expanded the area of control west of Peschanoe. Russia has also taken ground northward. The threat to Ukraine's defenses here gets steadily worse, as Russian troops approach the Oskol.


Russian troops gained ground inside Makeevka and now control over half of the village.


Meanwhile Ukraine has recaptured some ground towards the Zherebets river, near Novovodyanoe.


Russia hits a crossing on the Oskol.


Seversk salient.

Russia has apparently not secured Ivano-Darievka, due to Ukraine holding the hills north of it. Meanwhile Russia continues to creep northward along the rail line towards Vyemka and west into the fields.


Chasov Yar.

North of Chasov Yar Russia took some positions north of Kalinovo. Inside Chasov Yar itself Russian forces lost some positions along the canal, but penetrated deeper into the neighborhood.


Russian forces take a couple more tree lines in the fields between Chasov Yar and Toretsk.


Russian Molniya-1 loitering munition strike on an alleged Ukrainian staging area. Note the large explosion. We don't really secondaries, so presumably the drone itself was carrying a rather large payload, certainly larger then what we see in typical Lancet strikes.


A destroyed Ukrainian T-80VB near Stupochki. In principle this could be old from the fighting there last year, but the cage around the turret, very similar to the ones we only recently spotted on Ukraine's T-64s in Kursk region, makes me suspect this is more recent.


Russian infantry crossing the canal near Chasov Yar.


Gorlovka-Toretsk.


Russian forces have taken the rest of Pivnichnoe, and are advancing into Toretsk proper in the north and the south. Russian forces have taken the last pocket east of the canal, north of Mayorsk, and have advances inside Druzhba. Both of the refuse mounts in the south-east are now firmly under Russian control.


Russian forces have taken the northern part of Novgorodskoe and are pushing into Nelipovka.


There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces in Novgorodskoe didn't take out the last Ukrainian defenders but instead bypassed them, encircling them, possibly around or even in the phenol plant.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pokrovsk axis.

Russian forces are advancing inside Novogrodovka. After Krasnogorovka this will likely be the next town Russia takes. Unlike Grodovka, which is much smaller and completely rural, Novogrodovka is urban though small (pre-war population iirc ~14k). Much of the town center is apparently in Russian hands though this is not completely confirmed. Southward Russian forces have taken Mezhevoe, Krutoy Yar, Skuchoe, Zhuravka, Ptichye and Zavetnoe and are creeping up on Kalinovo, with some unconfirmed reports that they have taken it. About a third of Grodovka is under Russian control.

Lastly Russian forces have cut the E-50 highway, but the fate of the large refuse mount right next to it is unclear. If it's under Ukrainian control, they can't hold the road, and if it is, they will be able to use it to advance on Selidovo, though there is a second refuse mound right next to Selidovo.


Russian forces have also pushed through to the Karlovka dam, where they are poised to meet up with Russian forces descending southward along the western shore of the Volchya river. South of the reservoir Russian forces have made some gains inside Karlovka.


Russia hits a Ukrainian T-80 in Novogrodovka.


Ukrainian BMP-2 taken out with a munition drop west of Avdeevka.


Ukrainian BTR retreating from Grodovka, passes by a burning tank. It's moving towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian lines here continue to crumble.


Russian RPG team takes out a Ukrainian T-64, center of Novogrodovka. The tank loses a track and the crew bails out.


Russia firing Krasnopol'-M2 rounds on the Pokrovsk axis.


Russia hits something on the Pokrovsk axis. Allegedly it's an M777 howtizer, but that's not clear. Whatever it is does burn down completely, and it look like it might have been a towed gun of some sort.


Another destroyed Abrams with a generous amount of K-1.


Russia struck the mining complex building in Mirnograd/Dimitrov, allegedly hitting a Ukrainian staging area.


Mar'inka-Krasnogorovka area.


Russian force have recaptured an area south-west of Krasnogorovka. This is the location from which Ukraine counter-attacked iirc 3 times into Krasnogorovka.


Russia hits a Ukrainian MT-LB and pickup truck. note both vehicles appear disabled, and the MT-LB eats multiple drones.


Allegedly a Ukrainian howitzer getting hit, Kurakhovo axis.


Konstantinovka-Ugledar.

Russian forces continue to advance inside Konstantinovka, and also north of it.


Russian forces have reached and crossed the road to Ugledar near Vodyanoe village, and are not threatening the village on the other side of the road.


Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have re-entered the village of Lugovskoe, Zaporozhye area.


Russian TOS-1 fires on the Vremyevskiy bulge. Russian advances here have halted after recapturing Urozhaynoe and Staromayorskoe.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dnepr front.

Ukrainian Hammer bomb dropped on Novaya Kahovka, presumably Russian positions of some sort.


Russian D-30s firing on Ukrainian boats trying to land infantry on an island in the Dnepr. Fighting over the islands continues though Russia seems to have taken a few of them.


Russia hits what looks like a M270 position, Nikolaev region. It could be a decoy, but we do see other vehicles parked nearby, with some dispersion.


Russia hits a Ukrainian towed gun position, allegedly an M777.


Russian Kh-38 strike, alleged Ukrainian staging area, Kherson region.


Russia hit 3 parked pickups on the right shore of the Dnepr.


Black Sea/Crimea.


Ukraine struck and sank a ferry with fuel tanks on it. The ferry burned and is basically gone.


Russia striking Zmeiniy island, which now allegedly has a Ukrainian garrison. Russian sources claim the Ukrainian forces landed on the island after leaving the Romanian shore near Sulina


There are reports that Ukraine has plans to recapture the Tendrovskaya and Kinburn peninsulas to deblockade the Nikolaev port, and is actually about to start rebuilding efforts in Nikolaev. These plans look overly optimistic to me.


Russia has begun construction of a defensive pier to cover the Crimean bridge.


Strikes.


Another Ukrainian P-18 hit, this one near Izyum, Kharkov region.


Russia hit a Ukrainian S-300 position near Vol'noe village, deep in Khar'kov region. We have some obituaries confirming losses during the strike.


Russia hits a power grid substation, Kharkov region. You'll note that while it definitely does damage and likely caused a fire (that heavy black smoke is suggestive) the substation doesn't appear destroyed.


Russia hit a fuel storage in Ternopol', a large fire burns.


Russia struck Kotel'va village, Poltava region, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Russia also apparently hit some sort of chemical storage in Ternopol'. Cloudes of chlorine are reported, though concentrations are allegedly low.


Russia struck something in Sumy, but we can't make out what exactly the situation is. What we can see is some cars burning in front of apparently a residential building. This could be a Ukrainian intercept causing debris to fall, it could be malfunctioning missile, but we also can't rule out that Russia has resorted to indiscriminate bombardments of a border city, similar to what Ukraine does in Belgorod.


Ukraine hit the Martinovka airfield in Russia. The base houses an Su-34 regiment and multiple nonflyable aircraft awaiting maintenance and repairs were in the shelters. This base is rare for having air shelters, built on funds donated. Note the shelters aren't hardened in any way. No word on how many jets were damaged/destroyed, but one of the shelters was being used to store munitions and it caused quite a fire.


Novoshahtinsk, Rostov regino, Ukraine hit a fuel storage facility.


A Ukrainian drone was shot down in Murmansk region, suggesting a very carefully planned route to avoid detection.


A Ukrainian drone hit some sort of storage facility with flammable materials in Voronezh region.


Other interesting bits.


Russia has copied Ukraine's tactic of droppings caltrops to immobilize vehicles that then fall victim to drone strikes. One thing has been fairly steady, Ukraine has innovates what can be done with cheap drones, and Russia rapidly copies.


Russian Kamaz-4385 burns somewhere on the front lines. This is a new armored truck that was first shown publicly at Army-2023.


Russian AMN-590951s with log armor.


Ukrainian forces operating a rare RBS-17.


Ukraine has starting using helos to hunt long range Russian drones. This is a mirror image of what Russia has been doing with Ukraine's drones. Overall the value of Ukraine's Mi-24 fleet has been low in this conflict, ATGMs for them are in short supply, and with the prevalence of Russian SHORAD they're mostly relegated to lobbing rockets from low altitude with poor accuracy. Ukraine doesn't have a munition like the Vikhr with it's 10km stand off range, or the Kh-39 (LMUR) with it's even longer range and TV guidance.


Ukraine put a Parus module on one of the BTR-60s they got from Bulgaria. Previously we saw a lonely BTR-70 with such a module, and even an MT-LBu. These modules are most prominent on Ukraine's BTR-4s.


Ukraine's 109th TerDef Bde with a FZ220 rocket launcher on a pickup truck.


Ukraine's 10th Mountain-Assault Bde with a South African Mbombe MRAP.


A rare Ukrainian AMX-10 with a roof cage.


Ukrainian soldiers with an improvised mortar for firing 40mm grenades.


Another POW exchange took place of 115 from each side, with Russia recovering some of their captured conscripts of the recent fighting.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the lengthy update Feanor.

One thing I learned best over the past 2.5+ years is that I will never get over the confusion over all these village/town/city names, lol. Some of them are the same, the others only have a few letters to make them different, etc. Russians, for example, have two Korenevos right next to each other for gawd’s sake, a town and a village, haha.

IMG_6627.jpeg

Ukraine hit the Martinovka airfield in Russia. The base houses an Su-34 regiment and multiple nonflyable aircraft awaiting maintenance and repairs were in the shelters. This base is rare for having air shelters, built on funds donated. Note the shelters aren't hardened in any way. No word on how many jets were damaged/destroyed, but one of the shelters was being used to store munitions and it caused quite a fire.

I have been wondering for a while now. After every such a strike, regardless weather successful or not, there always seems to be the following claim or one with the same idea: these attack drones are slow flying, so there is always time for the air assets to leave the base for the duration of the strike. The question then begs to be asked: why aren’t these very assets that leave the airfield aren’t used to intercept the said slow flying drones? I will admit that I don’t have even a remotely close amount of expertise of the subject and probably lack good understanding of trivial things, and this seems to be one of them.


Also saw a post by the Military Observer with a few pics of an abandoned airfield, which seems to be an example of what one should be like:


One would think that it is pretty crazy that they don’t have lots of exactly these left after the Union.

There were some Russian fortifications being built in Kursk mentioned in the update. This is where the photo came from, a thread by Tatarigami:


It’s ridiculous how fast they dig those and fortify those things. I will also try to find a video of the trenches Ukraine had captured at the border and they are very impressive. Except that they are also useless if not manned properly.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Kursk front pt. 2.

Ukrainian POWs, Kursk region.


Russia's 810th MarBde shows off a captured Roshel Senator. I'm reasonably certain this is Kursk region.


Apparently a mass surrender took place of 24 service members from Ukraine's 22nd Mech Bde.


Russian 810th MarBde taking photos with the mess of destroyed MRAPs and armored cars from the last update. The area is apparently under relatively firm Russian control.


Ukraine evacuates a damaged Tunguska, likely the one we saw hit. Note that while it's definitely knocked out, it's very repairable, assuming Ukraine has the parts (considering how few such vehicles they had pre-war and that the manufacturer is Russia).


Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17 towing away a captured T-90M, unclear if the same one we saw earlier or another one.


Ukraine with Turkish Otokar Cobra II armored cars, Dozor-B armored cars, and T-72EA, Kursk region. We also have an Otokar Cobra FAmb.


A rare Ukrainian BMP-1TS in Kursk region.


A Ukrainian Stryker with cages over its hatches, presumably because they are weak points targetted by drones.


Ukraine's Belorussian volunteer formation and fighter from the Forward Observation Group have been spotted in Kursk region.


According to documents captured in a Ukrainian Roshel Senator, the vehicle was delivered in late july of this year.


Russian Grad-1 launcher on a MT-LB chassis, Kursk region. Allegedly this is the "Veterans" volunteer bde.


Satellite imagery of Russian defense lines near the Kursk NPP.


Russia hits Glukhov, Sumy region, allegedly a Ukrainian HQ.


Footage of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian troops. Based on the footage it looks like they were killed in or near cars on the road which lines up with earlier reports of Ukraine firing indiscriminately on any cars on the roads in the first days. Warning footage of corpses.


In Kursk, Kurchatov, and Zheleznogorsk, Russia has begun installing concrete shelters to protect civilians during shelling and missile strikes.


There are reports that Russia has formed an armed Territorial Defense forces in Bryansk region, with a Major General from the VDV in command. Reportedly they are armed. Note it's not clear how reliable or significant this is. We've seen footage of iirc Belgorod TerDef training with civilian AK variants (semi-automatic) but no sight of them in combat.


Russia has now evacuated over 121,000 people from the border area following Ukraine's incursion.


Kharkov front.

Russian forces re-entered the outskirts of Liptsi. It's unclear if Russia is actually attacking or if Ukraine had to abandone some untenable positions once they failed to retake Glubokoe.


After recent Russian advances, there are reports of a failed Ukrainian counter-attack using BTR-4s in Kharkov region. We have what looks like 2 BTR-4s destroyed though 3 claimed.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Giatsint-B, Kharkov region near Veseloe village, getting hit.


Russia hits 3 Ukrainian vehicles, allegedly 2 Humvees and a Stryker, though the IDs are not 100%.


A Ukrainian 2S1 burns, Kharkov region.


Russia's 116th National Guard OsNaz Bde in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod continue, though again at a reduced level.

Belarusian Nazis...... Some interesting comments.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks for the lengthy update Feanor.

One thing I learned best over the past 2.5+ years is that I will never get over the confusion over all these village/town/city names, lol. Some of them are the same, the others only have a few letters to make them different, etc. Russians, for example, have two Korenevos right next to each other for gawd’s sake, a town and a village, haha.
It's Korenevo and I believe Village Korenevo. Let's not forget that next to San Francisco, the city, is South San Francisco, a separate city.

I have been wondering for a while now. After every such a strike, regardless weather successful or not, there always seems to be the following claim or one with the same idea: these attack drones are slow flying, so there is always time for the air assets to leave the base for the duration of the strike. The question then begs to be asked: why aren’t these very assets that leave the airfield aren’t used to intercept the said slow flying drones? I will admit that I don’t have even a remotely close amount of expertise of the subject and probably lack good understanding of trivial things, and this seems to be one of them.
Good question. Perhaps it's a case where they know the drones are coming but they're small and fly low, so they don't exactly where the drones are and the issue is making the intercept. Whereas simply lifting off everything and taking it to backup airfields not in use (and therefore unlikely to be targets) is relatively easy.

Also saw a post by the Military Observer with a few pics of an abandoned airfield, which seems to be an example of what one should be like:


One would think that it is pretty crazy that they don’t have lots of exactly these left after the Union.
As they say, relics of an advanced lost civilization. I think part of the issue is that the airbases deeper into the Union were less protected because it was deemed less likely that they would get hit. And part of the issue is that a lot of confusion in the '90s led to things more modern and better getting scrapped and often less valuable things kept. Russia cut some T-80s into scrap, but still has T-54Bs in storage.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
New Ukranian jet powered drone. Still in development but looks pretty impressive in this short.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
New Ukranian jet powered drone. Still in development but looks pretty impressive in this short.
Beat me too it I understand it has already had some success ,I cant help but think this is something the ADF should be looking into
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
It's Korenevo and I believe Village Korenevo. Let's not forget that next to San Francisco, the city, is South San Francisco, a separate city.
Yeah, for sure. I figured “S” stands for “selo”, ie village, maybe? Still weird, haha. And there are Ptichie and Pivichie (or whatever the actual names are) located at the different fronts, a couple of Konstantinovkas, the Russian and Ukrainians names for the same places, and so on. I found myself to often check the map (or google the name) to make sure I am thinking of the right place when reading the reports. And this is two and a half years later and the frontline that hardly moves more often than not.

Good question. Perhaps it's a case where they know the drones are coming but they're small and fly low, so they don't exactly where the drones are and the issue is making the intercept. Whereas simply lifting off everything and taking it to backup airfields not in use (and therefore unlikely to be targets) is relatively easy.
That is easier, no doubt. Until, perhaps, Ukraine figures out how, rather where, to send another (slightly delayed) wave of drones or something like that.

I just don’t understand, how is this such a non-solvable issue? I realize the vast number of oil depots, refineries, other critical infrastructure, but the number of airfields is not the same and provided the damage they incur every other or two strikes is just plain weird to me. But again, I want to reiterate my lack of expertise here, which is probably the issue. I mean these are actual airplanes turned into “drones”, not small UAVs that are doing the damage. Perhaps a helo or two on the base that take off with others but, while other assets relocate, these search for the UAVs instead and bring them down. I guess then there is the infamous friendly fire to consider and the potential loss of the helos to Russian AD. I am sure there are people that are much more knowledgeable than me (and this is probably a huge understatement) are always considering options and solutions. It just seems bizarre to me that while there is an ability to shoot down cruise and ballistic missiles with some success (especially according to the reported rates), Cessna equivalents are causing so much trouble on a fairly limited number of targets.

As they say, relics of an advanced lost civilization.
Isn’t it? Crazy what 3 decades worth of time can do.

I think part of the issue is that the airbases deeper into the Union were less protected because it was deemed less likely that they would get hit.
Yes, absolutely. I see regularly the Russian sources talk about the issue and claiming that “even Ukraine and Belarus have these “proper” airfields, while we do not” and I always think whether they are just ranting or actually do not understand why this is the case - ie, those territories were the “frontier” and exactly why they have this inheritance. Just like the airfield in the post I cited: I would have to check to confirm, but believe that is somewhere far east, at the other “extreme”.

Another thought that occasionally crosses my mind - especially when there is a talk about how expensive it is to build a “ZhBU”, as they call it - imagine what the money and human resources that are spent on this war, along with the opportunities lost (the frozen assets?), could build instead, including the “proper airfields”, if desired. Damn shame how this whole thing had played out. And all for what exactly? Ah well…

And part of the issue is that a lot of confusion in the '90s led to things more modern and better getting scrapped and often less valuable things kept. Russia cut some T-80s into scrap, but still has T-54Bs in storage.
That’s some crazy stuff too, haha.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
A comment in this BBC article states that there is a target of delivering a million drones for Ukraine this year, many will be countered by electronic warfare of course but likely a significant number will be guided through to targets that even artillery does not reach ,Russia also uses such drones but still has a significant advantage in artillery that drones would be supplemental
 
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