The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk region means that the Russian military are having to defend their own territory for the first time. And in the immediate future at least, that will have priority over Putin's ambitions to annex more of Ukraine's territory, so politically this is very significant for the Russian leadership and it undermines the argument put forward by some people, that Russian victory in this war is inevitable and sooner or later the Ukrainians will have give up territory to Russia in a peace settlement.

Well... it's definitely not the first time. Ukraine has launched many cross border attacks, the last major one was this spring. This is just the first time it was remotely successful.

 

[Feanor]

Ukrainians had shelled the vicinity of the power plant in the past and could have done it again.
However it seems unlikely because at some point, Ukrainians stoped the provocations completely, probably under pressure from the IAEA and western partners. If Ukrainians did it, it's possible that they wanted to hit something there precisely.

The other possibility is that Russians set this fire intentionaly to make everyone panic and distract the attention from the Kursk events.

But we're not seeing the kind of spotlight by Russian officialdom that one would expect if this was the purpose. On a side note Russia's inability to destroy Ukrainian artillery that shells a major NPP is not a sign of strength. So the distraction would be... "don't pay attention to our poor performance in one area, look at our poor performance in another area instead"?

The Russian military is not able to supply normal MLRS launchers to some units... But it shows that Russian soldiers are motivated.

Yeah, it's not even the first UAZ van based MLRS from Russia. Artillery shortages plague both sides, and both sides get creative. Russia still has larger totals by a heft margin, but just because you have more doesn't mean you have enough.

They certainly didn't go there just to plant a flag and take selfies. It's one of the most strategic location in the entire Black Sea.

Ukrinform didn't say what was the target. They don't disclose much information on this type of operation. They only said that they went there, hit the enemy and came back. The entire released report made less than three lines.

In case I haven't been obvious, I don't consider Ukrinform credible, any more then I would consider RT credible. I'm inferring purpose from what they actually did. Ukraine has launched costly "flag" operations in the past and they have not come to anything before.

[quote[Because that's what they have. They recieve material from 54 different countries. The soviet component is already very various.
Consider yourself happy when you see two identical vehicles side by side in an Ukrainian formation.

For hit and run tactic it's not a problem. If they plan to held a front line, or extent the operation as it seems to be, then there could be a logistical problem.[/quote]

This isn't entirely true. Many Ukrainian units have relatively uniform vehicle inventories. I stress the term relatively. Here we have ~7 different light armor transports for the infantry. From what I've observed most Ukrainian brigades have 2. Even here we see units of like kit together. BTR-4s were spotted in company and platoon sized formations, likely there's a btln riding BTR-4s involved. We see Kozak-2 armored cars in platoon sized formations in (by my count) at least 4 mobile groups. I suspect we have a btln riding those. MaxxPros were supplied to the tune of 500 vehicles at least (there likely were more deliveries but numbers aren't available). For Bradleys Ukraine had an entire brigade, the 47th Assault, riding them. And only that brigade. Only recently did the 57th Mech start showing off those vehicles, and for that unit we don't know what portion is in Bradleys but likely at least a btln. For Marders the 225s Assault Btln seems to be completely on Marders. So we have btln+ sized formations in standard vehicles. Ukraine receives material from 54 different countries, but they don't put one company of Bradleys in each Mech Bde, and one company of BTR-60s in each, etc. They group like vehiles together as much as possible and by tracing those vehicles it's possible to try and make out units involved.

EDIT: It appears I made a mistake earlier. Ukrainian SoF didn't raid the same peninsula twice. One raid was the Tederovskaya peninsula and the other the Kinburn peninsula.

 

[John Fedup]

@John Fedup The problem is not territorial concessions. The problem is that Russia keeps bombing Ukraine among other agressive behaviours. You don't trade stopping bombings with the land of your country. It doesn't work that way.

Yes, Russia’s behaviour sucks and forcing the aggressors out is an awesome goal but realistically it a seems a distant goal. If US and EU resources continue then maybe….but realistically US/EU resolve is very questionable….i hope to be proven wrong (big time).

 

[Vivendi]

Not sure which resident told whom, but we have multiple civilian cars with people inside shot up by Ukrainian forces and consistent reports of Ukrainian forces engaging any vehicle that moves, without discrimination. I'll post some stuff with the next update.

I have seen several reports on false flag operations in Kursk conducted by Russian agents wearing Ukrainian uniforms. FSB has a history of conducting fals flags in Russia so these reports should not automatically be dismissed. The Mystery of Russia's 1999 Apartment Bombings Lingers — the CIA Could Clear It Up | Hudson Institute

Hard to tell what is really going on in Kursk right now.

 

[Vivendi]

General Mark Hertling on the Kursk operation. Mark Hertling on X: "Haven't posted on various Ukrainian actions for the last few weeks, as I've been involved with some other things. But I was asked my thoughts this morning on the Ukrainian operation over the last 8 days. In my view, this action has been impressive. It shows a careful" / X

He is impressed by how Ukraine has executed the mission, with careful intelligence preparation of the battlespace, a well-designed maneuver plan, the use of combine arms (infantry, mechanized forces, artillery, air defense, engineers, signal, air coordination (drones) and supporting logistics), good operational security, a prisoner plan, & an linkage between the tactical and the strategic.

He describes the operation as a doctrinal "demonstration," which is defined as "a show of force in an area where a decision is not sought, but an action is made to deceive the enemy or gain a short-term advantage." Demonstrations - depending on the design - last anywhere between a day to a few weeks, depending on the ability to resupply and secure the operation against enemy counterattacks.

The classical example of a demonstration would be the Doolittle Raid of WWII.

I think he is spot on. Well done Ukraine!

 

[Feanor]

I have seen several reports on false flag operations in Kursk conducted by Russian agents wearing Ukrainian uniforms. FSB has a history of conducting fals flags in Russia so these reports should not automatically be dismissed. The Mystery of Russia's 1999 Apartment Bombings Lingers — the CIA Could Clear It Up | Hudson Institute

Hard to tell what is really going on in Kursk right now.

Do you have links to the reports? I'd be interested to see them. I've seen Russia also accusing Ukraine of false flag attempts but since there was no evidence I didn't bother reposting.

 

[Vivendi]

We are used to Russian soldiers looting in Ukraine. However now Russian soldiers are looting also in Russia. What a disgrace.

Old Habits Die Hard – Russian Troops Loot Abandoned Villages in Kursk (kyivpost.com)

 

[Ananda]

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtube.com

Lyndsey Graham ask retired F-16 pilots to go to Ukraine. It's not first time Ukraine or Russia hiring foreign mercenaries. Thus this is not surprising move. However this also shown despite efforts to train Ukrainian pilots with F-16, they are still short of pilots.

If Graham as avid supporters for Ukraine doing this, he knows that either Ukrainian them self has already lost too much Pilots to begin with, or the effort to train new Ukrainian pilots in West still short on the result.

 

[Vivendi]

If Graham as avid supporters for Ukraine doing this, he knows that either Ukrainian them self has already lost too much Pilots to begin with, or the effort to train new Ukrainian pilots in West still short on the result.

It is well known that it takes many years for a pilot to become a proficient F-16 pilot and use the full capabilities of the plane. It's not something you pick up during a short training course. It is not about learning the basics of what buttons to push and how to turn but learning a new way of thinking and working together.

A modern, single-seat, multi-role fighter might be easy to handle from a pure piloting perspective, but the many mission sets available means a commensurately high workload in the cockpit. It can take many years for an air force to stand up a fully-capable, multi-role fighter squadron — even with a proven type such as the F-16.

This Is How Long It Would Really Take Ukraine's Pilots To Convert To F-16s (twz.com)

 

[Ananda]

It's not something you pick up during a short training course. It is not about learning the basics of what buttons to push and how to turn but learning a new way of thinking and working together.

Then the West politicians should say from beginning, to their own constituents especially, that those F-16 will need Western Pilots to fight the Russian.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/05/ukraine-f-16-pilot-training-00161742

The talks is how to provide F-16, how to provide logistics but skipping the need for Western pilots to fly and fight those F-16 against Russian. The talk before is Ukrainian will be fly and fight the Russian with F-16.

Now suddenly an American Senators implied otherwise. Seems base on Americans response in X, it is not being taking well by significant portion of X US or even Western constituents.

Off course can be argue present online constituents not represents Western especially US constituents. However this can be use as political ammo in next elections. Shown this can potentially further push F-16 preparation as meaningful Fighters to Ukraine cause.

 

[Feanor]

I'll aim for another update Thurs-Fri. It appears Ukrainian lines on the Pokrovsk axis are also crumbling. Russia appears to be aiming for Grodovka, and the rail berm simultaneously, using the Kazeniy Torets river to cover their northern flank. If this continues Pokrovsk really might fall some time around the end of this year. Meanwhile events in Kursk region are slowing down but Ukraine is still firmly on the offensive. Russia has not overcome Ukraine's offensive potential yet.

 

[Fredled]

Video of the Day: A full column of Hangar Tanks! (The prototype made children)

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Russia is redeploying its troops from Kaliningrad to the Kursk region
It means things a realy bad over there because Kaliningrad is supposed to be the most heavily guarded base in Russia.

Let me express my respect for your actions, your maneuvers in the north.
I say to the Lithuanian people: 'Look at how the Ukrainians are fighting for you. Because of their struggle, they [the Russians] have to pull their troops out of Kaliningrad. We even call it 'demilitarization' of Kaliningrad, which is happening thanks to the bravery of your military, thanks to your decisions.

Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region had boosted the morale not only of Ukraine, but also of Lithuanian society, and Lithuanians want to support Ukrainians even more.

IAEA inspector visited the cooling tower (Link: Chinese News in english) but were denied access to upper levels where the fire broke out.

The experts determined that the damage was most likely concentrated on the interior of the tower at the water nozzle distribution level, located at roughly 10 meters high but they have not been granted access to the level.

It's interesting why the Russians denied the access to IAEA inspectors who could have found evidence of a criminal terrorist attack by the Ukrainian nazi state. LOL.

IAEA officials were only able to visually inspect the cooling tower and run radiation monitoring.
After the inspection, the experts asked for access directly inside the cooling tower at the level of water nozzles, where, according to their assumptions, some damage could have been inflicted But the experts never gained access there.

The IAEA is yet to draw a final conclusion regarding the circumstances of the recent fire at the cooling tower.

link

We see no reason to limit the activities of Ukrainians. [...] We have no restrictions whatsoever on what kind of weapons and in what way Ukraine can use them. The starting point for everything is that Ukraine has a full right to defend itself within the framework of international law,

link

BRICS not as cemented as you think. Maybe because all the mortars are used in the Special Military Operation?
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi intends to visit Poland and Ukraine on 21-23 August

Ukraine claims the largest drone attack on Russian air bases so far.
If confirmed, it would be an indication that the Kursk intrusion allowed Ukrainians to strike more effectively Russian air bases.
We are waiting local's mobile phone videos for confirmation... If there are expletives covered by beeps, the news can be considered as confirmed.

A Russian Su-34 also awaits confirmation.
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@John Fedup The problem is not territorial concessions. The problem is that Russia keeps bombing Ukraine among other agressive behaviours. You don't trade stopping bombings with the land of your country. It doesn't work that way.

Yes, Russia’s behaviour sucks and forcing the aggressors out is an awesome goal but realistically it a seems a distant goal. If US and EU resources continue then maybe….but realistically US/EU resolve is very questionable….i hope to be proven wrong (big time).

Realistical or not, the goal of Ukraine is not so much to recover their territory, but to stop and counter the constant bombing and constant attacks by Russian troops. Of course they would like to recover their territories too, but there are other priorities.

Nobody believes that giving land to Putin would help calming him down.
Putin told us how much land he wanted in exchange for stopping the shelling and the bombings, on top of other requirements. But he cannot be trusted. And secondly it was too much.

Well... it's definitely not the first time. Ukraine has launched many cross border attacks, the last major one was this spring.

These small incursions probably urged the Russians to boost the defence on their border. Maybe at this time, Ukrainians didn't have any plan for a major operation inside Russia.
Without these small incursions, their success would have been even greater because Russians would have been taken completely off guard.

So the distraction would be... "don't pay attention to our poor performance in one area, look at our poor performance in another area instead"?

That's not their intent, but that's the result.

 

[Larry_L]

Another wannabe dictator sticks his neck out in Russia. The mood there must be worse than I thought, Here he is on video, Georgy Zakrevsk, head of the Paladin PMC.

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Head Of Russian PMC Calls To Overthrow Putin

A new Prigozhin?

charter97.org

Ukraine mopping up in Sudzha. They bypass the cities and keep going forward. Here they claim to have struck a major stronghold.

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Here they show off a captured drone jamming kit.

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Some Of Ukrainian solders are really enjoying this incursion.

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They seem to have hit 3 more airports with UAV's

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One version of extent of penetration. I see so many. The reality is anybody's guess.

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[Larry_L]

Two videos, one by Putin, and one by Zelensky on the 12th.

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Another view of the situation from Russia. This guy states that it is confirmed that the troops attacking in Kursk are NATO soldiers. Maybe he is confused by all the western armored vehicles.

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The following are Kursk residents who did not evacuate saying what Ukraine wants to hear. Warning: The first one, although humorous contains profanity.

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Humanitarian aid from Ukraine to Russians. They cannot keep this up for long, but good public relations.

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Ukraine is saying the incursion will stop if Russia will accept a "Just Peace". This one is in French. Ukraine claims to control 74 localities. A partial Quote follows.

Quote:
"The Ukrainian offensive in Russia will stop if Moscow accepts a 'just peace', according to Kiev

The Ukrainian offensive in Russia is 'legitimate' and will stop if Moscow accepts 'just peace' and ends its invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian diplomacy said on Tuesday. "More Russia will sooner to restore a just peace (...), the sooner the incursions of the Ukrainian defence forces into Russian territory will," Ukrainian diplomatic spokesman Guorgic Tykhic warned at a press conference. Ukraine, which launched an attack on 6 August in the Russian region of Kursk, has been trying for two and a half years to counter the invasion launched by Moscow, which occupies up to 20% of its territory, including its Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014."

Guerre en Ukraine : Kiev revendique le contrôle de 74 localités en Russie

LE POINT SUR LA SITUATION - Les troupes ukrainiennes mènent une offensive de grande ampleur depuis une semaine dans la région russe de Koursk. Kiev affirme contrôler 1000 km2 en territoire russe.

www.lefigaro.fr

 

[Fredled]

News selection of the day, rapidly:
Lukashenko fears an Ukrainian incursion in Belarus. (Reuters) Calls for Russia and Ukraine to make peace.
Note, this time he is saying "Russia and Ukraine". Not exclusively Ukraine.
He added that they are moving more troops to the border. But Ukrainians didn't notice any.

IMO the ability of Belarus to protect their border from a Kursk-style incursion can be questioned. However the risk is almost zero.

Finally he promised that nukes won't be used unless Ukraine attacks Belarus for real.

Weapons policy was not designed for Ukraine to invade Russia, although Kyiv was technically in compliance.

LOL.
link (Reuters)

The Biden administration is “open” to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine (Politico)
It's not for immediate delivery. But if the war is prolonging enough, they will be eventually delivered.

Certainly we are pushing for additional weapon systems to be supplied to the Ukrainians because the Russian aerial reign of terror has reached a different order of magnitude

Sen. Blumethal visited Kijev the other day, with Lindsay Graham.

A Tu-22M3 bomber has crashed in the Cheremkhovo district of Russia's Irkutsk region.
Ukraine says they have downed it. However, it's more likely to be an accident. Confirmation pending.

UK says Ukraine can use donated weapons inside Russia, except for Storm Shadows
Everyone has his own vision of the limits against escalation.

Ukes will offer Russian civilians to evacuate to Ukraine.

"We are currently working with the military on a possible route of a humanitarian corridor for civilians from the Kursk region to Sumy

Why not?

More clarity about the elusive Ukrainian marines in the Krinky area:
According to the Ukrainian spoksman, they are in the swamps, north of Krinky. Probably in small numbers.
Because it's summer, the swamps are drier. It's still a very difficult terrain to stay on. The swamp is not everywhere. You can see on the picture areas with trees and what looks like sand.

Seven enemy attacks were also repelled at a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region, north of the village of Krynky, where Ukrainian troops moved to new positions, and where the enemy has become more active compared to last week.

There is a considerable number of assaults for such a small area, and there are peculiarities there: due to the swampy terrain, it is difficult to create fortifications, new positions, observation posts, firing positions, and at the same time, if the enemy in such weather like now, inflicts artillery damage, especially with 152mm artillery, and also drops ammunition with incendiary substances from an unmanned aerial vehicle, as it did yesterday in the area of these positions, north of Krynky, fires start and it is very difficult to hold these positions. Our defenders have to move

More footage of Hangar Tanks offspring.
Tanks with shoe box like anti-drone kit. (among other things) In one sequence we can see an Ukrainian drone entering the small orifice left open at the front of the vehicle.
(Play the second video on the web page)

 

[Feanor]

News selection of the day, rapidly:
Lukashenko fears an Ukrainian incursion in Belarus. (Reuters) Calls for Russia and Ukraine to make peace.
Note, this time he is saying "Russia and Ukraine". Not exclusively Ukraine.
He added that they are moving more troops to the border. But Ukrainians didn't notice any.

IMO the ability of Belarus to protect their border from a Kursk-style incursion can be questioned. However the risk is almost zero.

They can probably stop a Kursk-style incursion, it's fairly small.

A Tu-22M3 bomber has crashed in the Cheremkhovo district of Russia's Irkutsk region.
Ukraine says they have downed it. However, it's more likely to be an accident. Confirmation pending.

It could be a case of both. Russia is reacting to Ukrainian done strikes by rapidly rebasing jets. This has already allegedly caused one crash of an Su-34. This could be more of the same. And remember, the Tu-22M3 fleet is old, and being used heavily. All of this makes crashes more likely.

Ukes will offer Russian civilians to evacuate to Ukraine.

Why not?

Because if there are any children among them it would be genocide. You know like it was genocide when Russia evacuated Ukrainian civilians. In case it's not obvious, I'm being sarcastic.

 

[Fredled]

They can probably stop a Kursk-style incursion, it's fairly small.

Yes in theory. But I, and he, could have doubts about the motivation of his soldiers... People in Belarus just wait when Lukashenko will go or die by his natural death to join Europe. It's not the same mentality as in Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Yes in theory. But I, and he, could have doubts about the motivation of his soldiers... People in Belarus just wait when Lukashenko will go or die by his natural death to join Europe. It's not the same mentality as in Russia.

I don't know that this is true. It's one thing to be dissatisfied with your government. It's another to be happy with a foreign invasion.

 

[seaspear]

Do they really believe that applying to join the E.U would be so easy for them , the ideals of the E.U hardly amount to a foreign invasion , it might also be that having provided much of its war materials to Russia ,Russia can be more direct in stopping such a movement away from its sphere of influence

 

[Feanor]

Do they really believe that applying to join the E.U would be so easy for them , the ideals of the E.U hardly amount to a foreign invasion , it might also be that having provided much of its war materials to Russia ,Russia can be more direct in stopping such a movement away from its sphere of influence

I'm very confused. The comment was about whether Belorus would be able to stop a Ukrainian military incursion along the lines of what Ukraine has done in Kursk region. What does any of that have to do with EU membership?