The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Russia's reaction is relatively slow,
Yes, I'm surprised to see how slow it is. When the Vagner column moved toward Moscow, they reacted much faster.

Here the columns which were supposed to intercept the Ukrainian advance have been destroyed even before they could engage the combat. This porbably scared the other troops in the areas who are aware of this. And they don't want to rush into a trap again.

Also the Ukrainian force seems to have spread in relatively small groups moving quickly. Russians don't know where to strike.

It looks like they may stay longer that we thought because there is no sign of retreating at the time of typing. By now there should be at least a rotation between the first reconnaissance group and the main force following them if any.

vikingatespam said:
Truly a textbook case of poor road discipline 2.5 years into the war.
I don't think so. These conscripts were driven in truck without protection because they were not in a war zone. It was unthinkable until that day that Ukrainians could strike an entire column, let alone with an HIMARS. Russians knew that some drone could hit the convoy. They didn't expect an HIMARS salvoe.
This indicates that Ukrainians have moved an HIMARS launcher very close to the border. The US will probably not agree to let the Ukrainians move the HIMARS inside Russia, but will allow strikes within range from the border. That's why HIMARS range have been intentionally reduced.
Ukes are saying that they have to fight with their arms tied behind their back. Maybe they could bring other types of MLRS.

More surprising is the lack of Russian air force. We haven't seen F16's yet in action. Neither over Kursk nor anywhere else. But Russians are certainly being very careful. Ukrainians have probably neutralised the Russian air defence in the area, at least where they are.

Some rumours goes on Russian speaking channels that Ukrainians have sized a large arm depot, or a ground force base... I couldn't find anything about it myself.

There is absolutely no news, no verifiable informations about these extraordinary events.
Only this:
Over 76,000 people have been evacuated from Russia's Kursk region

If the Russians evacuated that many people, it means things are serious over there.
This evacuation is only in areas where Ukrainians are not yet controlling. In areas under Ukrainian control, locals didn't have time to evacuate and local authorities did absolute noting. Some escaped by foot across the fields because the roads were closed or under fire.

Finally many stayed, just looking Ukrainian military vehicles passing by. They were surprised that they didn't loot anything or harrass the villagers. "They didn't even entered our house." told a resident.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I don't think so. These conscripts were driven in truck without protection because they were not in a war zone. It was unthinkable until that day that Ukrainians could strike an entire column, let alone with an HIMARS. Russians knew that some drone could hit the convoy. They didn't expect an HIMARS salvoe.
You dont sit a column of idled trucks, packed with troops, within artillery, drone and/or HIMARS range. At the very least, there is supposed to be a doctrinal distance between each truck.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member

A fascinating look at modern warfighters. Namely FPV drone operators. Possibly the deadliest combatant on the modern battlefield, or at least till AI takes over completely.

Their life is playing real life computer games, vaping, and posting their kills on social media.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, I'm surprised to see how slow it is. When the Vagner column moved toward Moscow, they reacted much faster.

Here the columns which were supposed to intercept the Ukrainian advance have been destroyed even before they could engage the combat. This porbably scared the other troops in the areas who are aware of this. And they don't want to rush into a trap again.

Also the Ukrainian force seems to have spread in relatively small groups moving quickly. Russians don't know where to strike.

It looks like they may stay longer that we thought because there is no sign of retreating at the time of typing. By now there should be at least a rotation between the first reconnaissance group and the main force following them if any.
I mean... Russia has hit quite a few Ukrainian vehicles. It'll be in the next update, but we have a small (and growing) bucket of footage of Ukrainian vehicles getting hit. I think the comparison to Wagner doesn't make sense. Wagner's march on Moscow looked like an attempt at a coup d'etat. It went much deeper, and much faster. Ukrainian mechanized and motorized recon elements running around a dozen border zone villages isn't nearly as serious of a threat. Also the goal and direction of movement for Wagner was obvious. So it was easier to throw up roadblocks.

As for retreating, Russian social media consensus seems to be that Ukraine isn't done attacking, and the last suriyakmaps update has Ukrainian forces trying to push again, though much slower now. I think the phase of rapid expansion might be over, but Ukraine is still on the offensive in principle.

Finally many stayed, just looking Ukrainian military vehicles passing by. They were surprised that they didn't loot anything or harrass the villagers. "They didn't even entered our house." told a resident.
Not sure which resident told whom, but we have multiple civilian cars with people inside shot up by Ukrainian forces and consistent reports of Ukrainian forces engaging any vehicle that moves, without discrimination. I'll post some stuff with the next update.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
ATP . Geopolitics cites Andrew Perpetua in releasing losses of material for both sides showing a much higher ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses ,Russia has for some time been using civilian type vehicles so it might be understandable for such to be attacked by Ukrainian forces
 

Fredled

Active Member
A nice, detailed report on the recent developments in Sudzha and elswhere.
___________________
It looks like Ukrainians bombed the city of Kursk, or its vincinity, with Tochka-U.
It maens that Ukraine still has or managed to aquire soviet missiles and that they keep them for use inside Russia without breaching restrictions on "NATO" missile use.

Russia's defence ministry said:
on Sunday it had destroyed 14 Ukrainian drones and four Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles overnight over the Kursk region,
Kursk officials said:
13 people were injured in the city after debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile fell onto a nine-storey residential building.
link: Reuters
 

Fredled

Active Member
According to the video below: Russians are hastily digging trench fortifications south-west of Kursk, south of the nuclear plant.
They take the threat very seriously. Taking it would mean "crossing the red line" literaly.
temp1.jpg

On the south-west, near the border with Ukraine, Ukrainians have bombed a fortified outpost with a Baba Yaga hex-copter.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
I imagine if the nuclear power plant were to fall it would be incredibly hard to get back. There is a risk that the reactor could be damaged due to fighting over the coming days or weeks which wouldn't just be bad for Russia but for the rest of Europe as well.
 

Fredled

Active Member
I imagine if the nuclear power plant were to fall it would be incredibly hard to get back. There is a risk that the reactor could be damaged due to fighting over the coming days or weeks which wouldn't just be bad for Russia but for the rest of Europe as well.
Yes. It would replicate the situation at Zaporyzha. I don't think it was the goal for the Ukrainians to take it. But the scare factor plays ar full efficiency. Ukrainians are too far. The yellow balloons moving northward don't represent significant forces. Just a few armoured vehicles and one tank which retreated and were hit by artillery.
Reaching Kursk would be much more useful. But it's not possible, now that reinforcements arrived in the region.
Ukrainians should rather try to expand east and west to neutralise Russian artillery firing at the Sumy region, instead of north. Hitting logistic hubs in Kursk would be also very useful. They could do it by launching drones or fire soviet style rockets from the territory they have taken.
It would be great if the Ukrainians could make a second incursion toward Belgorod or/and more to the west. Even a smaller scale one.

It looks like Russians are using only the reserves they had in the Region or further north to repel the Ukrainian incursion. And they didn't weaken their forces in the DonBas. If Ukrainians can hold the Kursk region long enough, then the effect in the DonBas may start to be felt when Russian won't have enough reserve to throw at the battle field meat grinder. It can take a few weeks.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Another very detailed update (to the extent that updates can be detailed with the scarcity of information available.)
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I cannot see how UKR could support and maintain an advance all the way to Kursk, especially in the face of increasing RU units being drawn in. I dont see the reactor being a target at all, as there is about nothing you could do with it.

No logistics nodes, no rail yards, no economic centers....there is no reason to stay unless they can claim superior defensive terrain.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk area.

Ukrainian forces attempted another cross border attack, this one into Belov area, just south of where they entered Kursk region. The attack was apparently repulsed, and one of Ukraine's maneuver groups that entered was destroyed, with a BTR-4 destroyed (2 claimed but no footage), and another captured by Russian forces. Around Sudzha Ukrainian forces are still attacking and gaining some ground, but the deeper penetrations appear to all have been repulsed and Russian forces have regained Snagost' (or never lost it? sources disagree). Inside Sudzha Ukrainian forces now hold the center of town. South of Sudzha Ukrainian forces have made a number of probing maneuvers but encountered Russian garrisons in the locales. The situation remains relatively fluid by the standards of this war, but the lines are hardening quickly.


A Ukrainian probing attack took place near Grayvoron, Belgorod region. They lost at least one BTR-60, allegedly two, and the attack failed.


Russia completely annihilated a large Ukrainian column that attempted to break through the border in Belov area. There were 7 BTR-4s, a M113, and a pickup truck. All but one BTR-4 burn.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian vehicle, allegedly a Stryker.


Ukrainian T-64 destroyed by a Lancet strike, somewhere around Sudzha. It's accompanied by three Kozak-2 armored cars of which two also gets hit (Russian sources claim all 3 destroyed).


A pair of Ukrainian APKWS in Kursk region, one gets hit by a strike, damaged but probably not destroyed. The other seems to be intact.


Russian Iskander strike on a Ukrainian column, Sumy region. Note the column is well dispersed and it's unclear how much damage it actually took.


Ukrainian Plastun EW getting hit, Sumy region.


Russia hits a Krab howitzer in the woods of Sumy, near Kursk region. Note it's not clear they got it, we don't have any large explosions or fire, just white smoke.


Ukrainian M777 hit by two Kub loitering munitions, the second one causes the ammo to cook off.


A Marder on the move gets hit and the smoke launchers detonate. There's probably turret damage, but no sign of black smoke or fire. Though the video does cut off, it's Russian. Presumably they would have posted the rest of it if it was a burning vehicle.


Bezymeno, Belgorod region, Ukrainian forces attacked the border area and lost a BTR-60PB, and a Kozak-2M armored car.


Ukrainian mobile element hides in the trees and then gets hit. We don't have good BDA, but there are multiple hits.


Russian drone drops munitions on Ukrainian infantry evacuating a wounded towards an M113.


Russia targets another Ukrainian mobile element with drone strikes. I'm not convinced any of the vehicles in this one were actually destroyed. Note it's starting to look like many of Ukraine's elements were 3 MRAPs/IFVs, and an MBT.


Ukrainian forces entered Poroz village, Belgorod, took a photo at the local rural club, and then withdrew.


Russian strike on Ukrainian infantry and on munition storage. Note the second is unconfirmed, but it does appear there are secondary explosions.


Russian Tornado-S strike on a Ukrainian light vehicle column on the move near the village of Kruglen'koe. There's no BDA, but with thin skinned vehicles there's likely to be losses and damage.


Russia hits a Marder, Stryker, and Kozak armored car.


Akhmat SpN films a destroyed Ukrainian mobile group, at least two destroyed light armored vehicles, and KIAs. Warning footage of corpses.


Another Ukrainian T-64 destroyed by a drone strike, near village Otradnoe, Kursk region.


Ukrainian FPV drone attempts to intercept a Russian Mi-8/17, but fails apprently due to EW.


Ukrainian FPV drone managed to damage a Russian Mi-28N, the ultimate fate of it is unknown, though Russian sources claim it returned to base with minor damage. If the Russia account is true, it's likely the drone failed to detonate its payload.


Russian Ka-52 Vikhr fires against a Ukrainian MBT.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian vehicle. It's listed as a light armored vehicle but it might just be a pickup truck.


A Stryker ESV with a mine trawl completely destroyed.


Ukrainian truck gets hit, Kursk region.


Ukrainian 2S1 hit, Sumy region, near Kursk border.


Another Ukrainian vehicle hit near Kursk border area, type unclear, but it causes a significant explosion.


Russian drone strike on a MaxxPro.


Ukrainian infantry attacked the Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod region, right next to Kursk region. They were reportedly repulsed.


A MaxxPro getting hit near the Kolotilovka checkpoint. It runs over a landmine and gets finished off with FPV drone strikes.


Russia dropping gliding bombs and using loitering munitions on disabled Ukrainian vehicles. Despite initial clearance of mines I suspect quite a few of these vehicles hit mines where they weren't expecting them.


Russian TOS-1A strike on Ukrainian forces near the Kolotilovka checkpoint.


Russian Su-30SM and Su-35S operations near Kursk. Russia reportedly made 23 airstrikes around the Kursk area on just August 9th.


Russian strike, Sumy border area, allegedly Ukrainian staging area.


Russian Grad fires, Kursk region. Note the small number of rockets used. Incomplete Grad packets are the norm for both sides.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian Grad fires, Kursk region. Note the small number of rockets used. Incomplete Grad packets are the norm for both sides.


Ukrainian forces entering Kursk region on the first day. They drive by a knocked out Ukrainian vehicle (BRDM-2?) with a clearly visible tactical marking.


A pair of destroyed Russian T-80BVMs on trailers. Note these are not the same two destroyed tanks on trailers we saw earlier. Out of those one (likely both) were T-62M mod'22s. The terrain here looks different and the tanks are different. Meaning Ukraine caught ought not one but two Russian tank pairs on trailers.


Some footage of Russian infantry engaging a Ukrainian mobile element on BTR-4s, and in the second video the captured BTR-4.


Russian BTR-82A engages a Ukrainian BTR-4. Allegedly this is another snippet of the same fight as above. The BTR-4 catches fire possibly due to ammo cooking off, and the occupants bail out. Allegedly the BTR-82A survived.


Ukrainian BTR-4, unclear if this is the captured one or not.


Russian forces showing off a captured BTR-4. The people are likely Chechen fighters (Akhamt SpN was reportedly in the area), and the vehicle is damaged, possibly knocked out. It's probably not the same as above.


Russian personnel from the 810th MarBde posing with destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. We have an armored Humvee and a Cougar MRAP.


Ukrainian POWs Kursk region. In the second link there's a video where a POW from Ukraine's 22nd Mech states that their company had 32 service members left when they went into this fight and is now almost wiped out.


Russian POWs, Kursk region. Note a Russian element was cut off and surrounded almost immediately in the village of Oleshnya.


Another Ukrainian POW captured by a combination of Russian regulars and irregulars.


Ukrainian forces evacuating a Stryker ESV. Possibly the same one we saw knocked out.


Ukrainian M88 pulls out a damaged/destroyed MaxxPro, Kursk region.


Ukrainian ARV pulls out a knocked out Marder, Kursk region.


Ukraine is attempting to evacuate the pile of vehicles Russia hit with an Iskander.


Ukrainian truck towing a damaged VAB, Kursk region.


Ukrainian forces allegedly operating a civilian tractor to recover damaged vehicles. Note this is claimed but not obvious from the footage.


Ukraine hit a bridge across the Seym river near Glushkovo, but missed the surface of the bridge, damaging the railing.


Ukraine hit Kurchatov causing a blackout.


Russia hit allegedly a Ukrainian HQ from the 22nd Mech Bde near Kursk region, killing 15 officers. Note none of this is confirmed.


One of the buildings at the gas pumping station in Sudzha has been destroyed, but the station itself remains active.


Russian fighters from Ossetia arriving in Kursk region.


Ukrainian forces in Sumy region, presumably heading to Kursk region. We have some BTR-60s, an MT-LB, a 2S7. The sudden appearance of BTR-60s is likely due to the Bulgarian donations that recently took place.


Ukrainian PT-91 in Kursk region.


Ukrainian Mi-8 being used in support of operations in Kursk region.


Ukrainian 2S6 and unspecified MLRS (Grad variant?) Kursk area.


Ukrainian Wisent 1 in Kursk region with a drone cage.


Ukrainian ARTHUR/MAMBA counter-battery radar.


A Russian armored Ural and Kamaz with damage from HIMARS submunitions. Russia had plans for converting large numbers of their military trucks, including some logistics units, to armored cabin variants long before the current war, but properly armored trucks remain relatively scarce.


Russian T-62MV mod'22, Kursk region.


Russian reinformcents on the move. We have a lot of MT-LBs with various weapons. The most curious is the MT-LB Grad variant. There's also a Msta-S and some BMP-3s.


Russian T-62MVs, and a T-72B3 mod'23, Kursk region.


Russia redeployed DNR Pyatnashka Bde to Kursk region. Ex-Wagner formations are also reported.


Russian conscripts that got pulled from the front line areas after Ukraine's offensive started. Note some were taken POW, and likely some were casualties.


Civilians evacuating the town of L'gov, Ukrainian forces never reached the area.


A Russian civilian drives by Ukrainian troops, Kursk region, with a destroyed vehicle. They open fire on him.


Another Russian civilian car shot up trying to enter Sudzha with geolocation.


Allegedly a civilian car getting shot up by a Stryker, it rolls off the road and catches fire. We never see who or what fires at it.


A Russian civilian ambulance damaged allegedly by a Ukrainian drone strike.


Battle damage inside Sudzha. The fighting there is ongoing and the footage is at this point days old.


Ukraine struck the Gornal'skiy St. Nicholas monastery, in Kursk region.


Russia has set up blood donation stations in Kursk to help treat wounded personnel. This is an indirect confirmation of significant losses.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kharkov front.

A destroyed Ukrainian Fighter-2 armored car.


A destroyed Ukrainian 2S1, Kharkov region.


A Ukrainian Su-27 was downed in Kharkov region at some point. Note earlier there was a report of a downed MiG-29 and this may have been that aircraft misidentified.


Russian airstrikes in Volchansk.


Aerial footage of the damage of Volchansk.


Ukrainian drones hit residential buildings in Shebekino and Novaya Tavolzhanka. One civilian reported wounded. Strikes were also seen in Belgorod itself.


Russia hit Zlochevo, Kharkov region, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Oskol front.


Russian forces have expanded the salient north of Peschanoe, consolidating control over the hills. In principle the target is the Oskol river itself, and the road that runs along it. But Russia wants to expand the base of the salient first. South of there Russian forces have extended their salient north of Stel'makhovka.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces have entered Perezednoe, north of Razdolovka.


Russia has retaken the filtration station north of Belogorovka. Note the situation with the refuse mound remains murky. Allegedly Russia took it, but confirmation is scarce and we're not seeing the kinds of advances that would theoretically be possible with the benefit of that high ground. It's possibly that this is a tertiary axis, and Russia has taken an operational pause. It's also possible Russia didn't manage to secure the refuse mound.


Chasov Yar.

A series of Russian drone strikes on alleged Ukrainian positions along the canal pipes.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gorlovka-Toretsk.

Russian forces have now definitely entered Toretsk itself from Pivnichnoe. The move continues the envelopment of the refuse mound immediately south of it. Russian forces also expand their area of control in the northern part of Pivnichnoe. In Novgorodskoe Russian forces have grabbed quite a few tree lines west of the village, getting very close to the next village, Panteleymonovka. Ukrainian forces are also rapidly withdrawing from the positions at the old front line east of Novogorodskoe. Lastly Russian forces appear to have been pushed out of the school in the northern part of Novgorodskoe, allowing for a potential Ukrainian retreat if it comes to that.


A knocked out Ukrainian M113, Toretsk area.


Ukrainian MBT hits a land mine, Gorlovka-Toretsk axis.


Pokrovsk Axis.


Russian forces have taken the rest of Ivanovka, Lisichnoe, and the village of Sergeevka. Zhelannoe is almost completely taken too. I suspect the next push is on Nikolaevka, though Grodovka is also a possibility. Ultimately, if they're serious about pushing on Pokrovsk, both will need to fall.


Russia wrecked a large Ukrainian armored column. It's got 3 BTRs with drone cages (BTR-70 I think), a Bradley, a Rosomak (or Stryker?), and at least 3 unarmored vehicles.


Russian forces downed a Ukrainian strike UAV over Ocheretino. The payload is 60mm mortar rounds.


Ukrainian M1 getting hit near Nikolaevka. The 47th Mech is still trying to blunt the main thrust of the Russian advance, and the next significant village for Russian forces in my opinion is Nikolaevka, along that very same rail berm.


Russian FPV drone takes out an M113, Pokrovsk axis.


Russia hits a Ukrainian Dozor-B/Oncilla, on the dam across the Karlov reservoire.


Russia has captured their first M88 ARV in Sergeevka.


Russian Tor-M2 with the extra armor panels, now near Avdeevka. Previously our only sighting of this variant was as part of battlegroup north.


Krasnogorovka area.

Russian forces have retaken the southern part of Nevel'skoe.


Konstantinovka-Ugledar area.

Russian forces continue to gain ground inside Konstantinovka, have expanded their area of control around their salient towards the road to Ugledar, and are approaching the road in another spot south of there.


Russia continues striking targets in Prechistovka, west of Ugledar.


Zaporozhye.


Ukraine struck the Zaporozhye NPP, damaging the cooling systems.


Dnepr front.

Russia hits, allegedly, a Bogdana howitzer, Kherson region. Note we can't really make out what the vehicle is exactly, but it makes a significant explosion and it looks like there's a secondary explosion.


A Russian improvised MLRS using 3 Grad tubes on an UAZ van chassis. The unit operating it is allegedly Northern Fleet Marines, meaning the 61st MarBde.


Russia is using unmanned platforms to resupply their troops on the Dnepr islands.


Crimea/Black Sea area.

Ukraine made not one but two landing attempts on the Tenderovskaya peninsula, taking losses, and failing to accomplish anything of note. Warning footage of corpses. A reasonable person might ask, what's the purpose such expenditure of lives? To plant a flag, and film it from a drone. That's it (last link).


Ukraine attacked the MSP-17 sea platform, and a Russian Coast Guard ship with unmanned boats. The platform burned, the fate of the ship is unknown.


Russia engages unmanned boats off the coast of Crimea. Russia claims 7 destroyed boats.


Strikes.

Russia hit Kramatorsk. Targets unclear but it was in the industrial part of town.


Russia hit Konstantinovka, a supermarket, that was allegedly beign used to store munitions and military kit. We can see Ukrainian a military SUV in front of it.


Ukrainian UAVs hit Voronezh. Some of them hit a residential building and were apparently packed with small metal balls for maximum damage.


Ukraine hit the Liptsi airfield.


BDA from Ukraine's strike on the Liptsi airbase clearly shows substantial damage to munition storage facilities.


Interesting bits.

A rare Ukrainian Zuzana howitzer destroyed, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian 128th Mech with a captured Russian AMN MRAP. Note this vehicle was not part of the initial invasion and only entered service during this war.


Ukrainian Leo-2A4CAN in Ukraine's 33rd Mech Bde.


A closer look at the Ukrainian Chaklun-B long range UAV, essentially the Ukrainian counter-part to the Shahed.


Ukraine producing a drone cage for Bradleys.


Russian soldiers from the 6th Motor Rifles are working on dismantling a Matador RPG round to convert into a drone munition.


Iranian M46 shells in Russian service.


Russian forces show off a captured Spartan APC. I suspect it might be the vehicle they captured in Novomihailovka some time ago.


Reportedly Russian 2S42s are heading to the front line. This is an experimental gun-mortar 120mm combination on the BMD-4M chassis.


Russian forces doing maintenance on a BMP-1U. These are captured ex-Georgian vehicles.


Russian reconstruction efforts in Mariupol' continue. Despite the intil showing of fancy new buildings, much of the city is still in bad shape. Instead of focusing on a few newly built neighborhoods in the west side of the town, Russia is now rebuilding torn down damaged buildings.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ok some thoughts. Now that we have more material surfacing a few things are becoming clear. First off Ukraine's break in wasn't anywhere near as clean or easy at it looked at first. Ukrainian forces broke through with a fight, losing considerable numbers vehicles and likely personnel. Second, we have Russia tracking down and hitting many of the mobile groups. Note this doesn't mean some don't get through, and many of the ones that got destroyed probably spent quite a bit of time running around before they got hit. Third, once Ukraine got slowed and partially halted they attempted to expand the area in play. This mostly failed, with several Ukrainian border attacks being repulsed, but Ukrainian troops apparently did get across the Psel river, and pushed into Spal'noe though fog of war makes it unclear how firm this presence is. It's not clear if this will lead to anything further, additional Russian forces are still arriving in the area, and the scale of the Ukrainian attack is still relatively small. Territory-wise these are substantial gains, sustainability and ultimate goals remains in question. It's also unlikely Ukraine can hold them long term, especially with Russia hitting the rear areas.

Some general notes. The Ukrainian forces involved use a particularly mixed bag of vehicles. We have Strykers, VABs, M113s, BTR-60s, and BTR-4s, Kozak-2s, armored Humvees, MaxxPro and Cougar MRAPs, Bradleys, Marders, T-80s, PT-91s, T-64s. For every major category of ground equipment there are multiple types. Yet the total forces committed are not that large. In other words, we see pieces of many brigades, likely btln and company strength formations pulled out. To me this raises questions. Ukraine, at least fairly recently, had reserves. Are they no longer available? Pulling single btlns out of other units is generally bad practice, especially when it's this many different ones. Some of these units were definitely not at the front. We haven't really seen Strykers active on the front lines in a long time. Ukrainian artillery support is hard to gage from existing footage, we can confirm 2S1s, they're the most common Soviet SP-howitzer Ukraine has these days because they got quite a few from Eastern Europe. We can confirm an M777s, and speculatively Krabs. There was also a 2S7 in the footage from inside Sumy region. It's also a mix, but not quite as severe as with other categories of kit.

With separate btlns, using different kit, casualties can cause units to degrade faster, and it's hard to combine units. It also makes logistics more complex. For weaponry on light armor vehicles for example, Ukraine has M2 .50s on most of their western MRAPs, and on the Strykers. But the BTR-60s have a KPVT 14.5mm. The BTR-4 has a 30mm autocannon, the Bradley a 25mm Bushmaster, and the Marder a 20mm. The MBTs are all compatible on ammo, and this might be a reason western MBTs aren't being used. In general MBTs appear in small numbers. Mostly we're seeing single tanks leading mech platoon groups. This allows them to be less noticeable, and move quickly, but it also means that a single drone strike can deprive the formation of a large chunk of its firepower.

None of this points to a single obvious conclusion but in general these formations are getting hit, the longer they're stuck in they more they will lose, and they're almost certainly losing more kit then Russia is, the destroyed trailers with tanks notwithstanding. Widening the operation didn't work, and I wonder why they did it that way in the first place. If they had forces to advance in a wider front, why not start wide to begin with? If they don't have forces to advance in a wider front, why does widening it help? I'm skeptical that this will turn out well for Ukraine, and to me it seems these resources could have been better used on the defensive. In Toretsk Ukrainian forces narrowly escaped encirclement by Russian forces advancing through Novgorodskoe (techincally they were briefly operationally encircled when Russia took the school). On the Pokrovsk axis Russia seems to have settled into a rhythm of successful attacks, multiple per day, gaining ground in many directions in a fairly wide front, and the curving nature of the rail berm means they don't have to push too far from the high ground to end up with a fairly wide area. The 47th Mech in particular has been worn very thin trying to blunt these advances, unsuccessfully so far. It remains to be seen what the consequences of this are.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Thanks for the long and detailed update.

Feanor said:
Ukraine struck the Zaporozhye NPP, damaging the cooling systems.
Ukrainians had shelled the vicinity of the power plant in the past and could have done it again.
However it seems unlikely because at some point, Ukrainians stoped the provocations completely, probably under pressure from the IAEA and western partners. If Ukrainians did it, it's possible that they wanted to hit something there precisely.

The other possibility is that Russians set this fire intentionaly to make everyone panic and distract the attention from the Kursk events.

Feanor said:
A Russian improvised MLRS using 3 Grad tubes on an UAZ van chassis. The unit operating it is allegedly Northern Fleet Marines, meaning the 61st MarBde.
The Russian military is not able to supply normal MLRS launchers to some units... But it shows that Russian soldiers are motivated.

Feanor said:
Ukraine made not one but two landing attempts on the Tenderovskaya peninsula, taking losses, and failing to accomplish anything of note. Warning footage of corpses. A reasonable person might ask, what's the purpose such expenditure of lives? To plant a flag, and film it from a drone. That's it (last link).
They certainly didn't go there just to plant a flag and take selfies. It's one of the most strategic location in the entire Black Sea.

Ukrinform didn't say what was the target. They don't disclose much information on this type of operation. They only said that they went there, hit the enemy and came back. The entire released report made less than three lines.

Feanor said:
The Ukrainian forces involved use a particularly mixed bag of vehicles.
Because that's what they have. They recieve material from 54 different countries. The soviet component is already very various.
Consider yourself happy when you see two identical vehicles side by side in an Ukrainian formation.

For hit and run tactic it's not a problem. If they plan to held a front line, or extent the operation as it seems to be, then there could be a logistical problem.

Feanor said:
I'm skeptical that this will turn out well for Ukraine, and to me it seems these resources could have been better used on the defensive.
Nobody pretends that this was a pic nic. It's normal that Ukrainians take losses in the Kursk region. It's an exrtemely risky operation.
IMO, Ukrainians will be victim of their success. The plan went so well that they were emboldened to drive further north, therefore exposing themselves to Russian counter strike while being too far to retreat to a safe location inside Ukraine.

I don't agree that these resources would be more useful as defense in the DonBas. It's obvious that they are also sending new forces to the DonBas and Zaporyzha, and certainly in bigger quantities than what they used in the Kursk incursion. They didn't abandon the front line to push toward Kursk.

On the defensive line, vehicles wait for the infantry assault. Then, while the attackers suffer greater losses in their infantry ranks, the Ukrainian defenders lose quiet a lot of expensive material under bombings and drone attacks as soon as they are detected. And there is nothing they can do to prevent that.
The only way is to constantly withdraw and allow the Russian to advance.

In the Kursk ubcursion, groups are mobile, moving constantly. And this can prove to be more effective than waiting for an assault between two series of FAB or MLRS strikes.

The problem is that Ukrainians won't know what to do next. If they stay, it will be just yet another part of the fornt where both sides dig in. If they come back to Ukraine, it will be seen as a defeat.
It wouldn't be seen as a defeat if it was a hit and run operation, lasting 3 days max. But after one week, it takes a different meaning.

Illustration: The Russian Security Council enjoying the events.
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J. Southworth

New Member
Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk region means that the Russian military are having to defend their own territory for the first time. And in the immediate future at least, that will have priority over Putin's ambitions to annex more of Ukraine's territory, so politically this is very significant for the Russian leadership and it undermines the argument put forward by some people, that Russian victory in this war is inevitable and sooner or later the Ukrainians will have give up territory to Russia in a peace settlement.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk region means that the Russian military are having to defend their own territory for the first time. And in the immediate future at least, that will have priority over Putin's ambitions to annex more of Ukraine's territory, so politically this is very significant for the Russian leadership and it undermines the argument put forward by some people, that Russian victory in this war is inevitable and sooner or later the Ukrainians will have give up territory to Russia in a peace settlement.
It is a setback for Putin but only for the short term. Time is against the Ukraine, especially if Trump returns to the WH. Even a Harris government will be hard pressed to fund this stalemate at best and eventual territorial concessions to Russia even more likely. I can’t see EU support going on for another 2-3 years either without more positive news from the battlefield.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@John Fedup The problem is not territorial concessions. The problem is that Russia keeps bombing Ukraine among other agressive behaviours. You don't trade stopping bombings with the land of your country. It doesn't work that way.
 
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