The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It was in response to you saying Ukraine can't keep them emitting 24/7.

So far, given the circumstances, Ukraine managed to keep its Patriots relatively safe. Beyond my expectations at least. And advantages that either side can produce are a subject for a future debate. The only thing I can contribute to it right now is it seems Ukraine doesn't improve quickly enough in VSHORAD.
Sure, by operating mostly from ambush, and typically fairly far from the front line. They can definitely keep their new Patriots safe the exact same way. And they will contribute to their ability to maintain air defenses, especially as they truly exhaust Soviet SAM stocks, including re-exports from various countries. But it won't stop Russian gliding bomb drops. That's the tradeoff.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Sure, by operating mostly from ambush, and typically fairly far from the front line. They can definitely keep their new Patriots safe the exact same way. And they will contribute to their ability to maintain air defenses, especially as they truly exhaust Soviet SAM stocks, including re-exports from various countries. But it won't stop Russian gliding bomb drops. That's the tradeoff.
The US and Germany really need to remove some more red lines. Ukraine should be allowed to hit targets deep inside Russia, not just close to the border. Long range missiles could then be used to attack Russian military installations including Russian aircraft used to launch the gliding bombs.

And Sweden should be allowed to transfer some Gripen with Meteor. The long range of the Meteor missile would force Russian planes to stay further away making it harder to launch those glide bombs at targets in Ukraine.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The US and Germany really need to remove some more red lines. Ukraine should be allowed to hit targets deep inside Russia, not just close to the border. Long range missiles could then be used to attack Russian military installations including Russian aircraft used to launch the gliding bombs.
It would certainly be a step in the direction of trying to win that fight, it's just not clear that mere permission gets the job done.

And Sweden should be allowed to transfer some Gripen with Meteor. The long range of the Meteor missile would force Russian planes to stay further away making it harder to launch those glide bombs at targets in Ukraine.
Is there any advantage in the Meteor vs the latest AIM-120 variant? As for "allowed".... is anyone prohibiting Sweden from doing this? I'm a bit confused. It seems to me that Swerve is spot on with his response as to why that's not what's happening. F-16s are by far the most logical western jet to supply to Ukraine.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Odd that things like this (completely avoidable) still happen, almost 2.5 years into the war.

Not really that odd. Russia has only really developed the ability to strike non-static targets at 50+ km range over the past ~10 months. For most of this war that capability was absent. And even over this period of time it's been inconsistent. Russia took out ~5 Ukrainian jets and a couple of military cargo trains in September of last year, and then it was quiet for months. Couple with this is the fact that Ukraine has chosen to concentrate assets in a definite attempt to push Russia out of their inroad in Kharkov region from the north. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a political decision from the top, as forces have been pulled from other sections of the front, and Russia is currently making gains in several other areas capitalizing on this weakness (likely the intent all along). This means concentrating jets to strike Russian forces. We've seen some of the heaviest consistent Ukrainian bomb strikes against Russian targets in Volchansk. It appears to have cost Ukraine one jet downed in combat, and now 6 more hit where they're based out of. Overall Russia's ability to strike deep has gotten steadily better over the past ~10 months, and it's unlikely this is going to stop. They've also recently hit a couple of military trains, and Russian SEAD strikes against larger SAM systems have gone up in number. This is one of the big challenges Ukraine's incoming F-16s face. The totals committed to Ukraine are ~100 jets. Ukraine currently operates by my estimation less then half that number. Increasing the number of jets by that number means exposing them to more strikes. Hiding them far away and dispersing means less efficient and more complex operations, and with that many jets, you can't really go to basing no more than 2-3 jets per airfield. So 4-6 at a single airfield will be a thing.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine's defenses around Toretsk seem to be crumbling unusually quickly. After several Russian advances across a section of the front around Mayorsk, they've now apparently broken into Novogorodskoe (renamed New York of all things...) big time from the south. What started looking as a distraction now appears to be a major effort with a realistic attempt to take Toretsk. I can't help but wonder if this is because Ukrainian troops have gotten complacent in an area that hasn't been active in almost two years. Note, so far these are preliminary efforts. Russia has to finish taking Novogorodskoe where there is an impressive advance but the center is still in Ukrainian hands. Russia would also have to take the villages of Druzhba, Pivdennoe, Zaliznoe, Pivnichnoe, and Nelipovka, before an earnest effort for Toretsk itself. In practice this is a spread out suburban and semi-rural sprawl and they sort of blend together. Time will tell if this effort comes to fruitition. Russia is embarking on it's 5th effort, currently being engaged in Chasov Yar, Krasnogorovka, Volchansk, and pushing on Seversk. In Avdeevka Russian success came from a concentrated effort. The current effort is distinctly not concentrated, presumably intended to stretch Ukrainian reserves as thin as possible. This could pay off handsomely with the fall of 3 cities with minimal resistance as Ukrainian forces are fixed around Chasov Yar and Volchansk, and possibly even a successful push to the Oskol. This could end in failure on multiple locations. Only time will tell.

I also can't help but wonder if this effort is as a result of stubborn Ukrainian defenses around Chasov Yar, though there Russia has finally apparently taken the canal neighborhood. In principle the fall of Toretsk also opens the road to Konstantinovka, but this is an even more distant prospect then the fall of Chasov Yar, or of cutting the road Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka. In general Toretsk is of course also a prize in an of itself, it also pushes Ukrainian forces back from Gorlovka, allowing the city to experience a modicum of peaceful life, and it may trigger Russian reconstruction efforts in the city.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In regards to the airstrike on the Myrhorod base this video cites evidence of video splicing ,in Russia's claims ?
It's an interesting analysis. I do think we have two strikes, and Russian sources talk about that as well, which is why they claim 2 jets destroyed, and 4 damaged. With this camera quality it's hard to be completely sure of anything so perhaps we have less damage then indicated. I do know that Ukrainian social media sources seemed pretty upset about that strike. What's interesting is that Russia carried out two other airbase strikes recently, hitting a Mi-24, and what appears to be an Su-25. In other words, Russia is trying to step up their efforts against Ukrainian air assets.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Not really that odd. Russia has only really developed the ability to strike non-static targets at 50+ km range over the past
What do you mean by this? Russia has enough cruise and balistic missiles to strike whenever they want wherever they want in Ukraine. Their only limitation is intelligence.
As Russian strike capability is concerned, it doesn't make any difference wether the planes are based 100 miles or 300 miles front the dfront line as long as they are not in reach of ground artillery.
The last question is about intelligence gathering. Satellites and radars can aolso cover most of Ukraine, but dornes, the most reliable source of information, can fly only a few dozen miles. Then it would make sens to put the jets out of drone reach. And maybe Ukrainians underestimated Russian observation drone range.

Russia has enough long range missile to make dozen of semi-random strikes on the most probable targets. So Uke bloggers shouldn't complain too much when two Su are hit in such strike. Russians don't count the number of missiles they fire at Ukraine.
________________________

Interesting claim of an operation against a ship of the Russian Baltic Fleet based in Kaliningrad.
The operation was made thanks to the help of a Russian defector. It's not clear what they did concretely... but according to Yusov it was successful.
_______________________

Another interesting claim by the Ukrainian against an advanced metallurgy factory near Belgorod. Destroying the power stations around there suddenly shut down the factory electric furnaces, causing important damages and the halting of operations.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What do you mean by this? Russia has enough cruise and balistic missiles to strike whenever they want wherever they want in Ukraine. Their only limitation is intelligence.
As Russian strike capability is concerned, it doesn't make any difference wether the planes are based 100 miles or 300 miles front the dfront line as long as they are not in reach of ground artillery.
The last question is about intelligence gathering. Satellites and radars can aolso cover most of Ukraine, but dornes, the most reliable source of information, can fly only a few dozen miles. Then it would make sens to put the jets out of drone reach. And maybe Ukrainians underestimated Russian observation drone range.
You answered your own question. Russian drones seem to have gotten quite a bit more range.

Russia has enough long range missile to make dozen of semi-random strikes on the most probable targets. So Uke bloggers shouldn't complain too much when two Su are hit in such strike. Russians don't count the number of missiles they fire at Ukraine.
The issue is that Russia didn't do much of this in '22, and only a little in '23. If Russia can do this a lot more, Ukraine will have problems. If this is another spurt, followed by months of nothing, then it's not that significant.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Interesting new tactic by the Russians or at least something I didn’t see before. A soldier sneaks in to a building occupied by the Ukrainian troops and throws an antitank mine(s) through a window, levelling the building upon explosion. It appears to be working. This post says that the method is highly effective but dangerous and shows the execution and results:


This post shows how dangerous it can get:


The post says that the Russian guy survived but is concussed. I would bet he is! The second video is allegedly from (the Ukrainian) New York! Looks like the front line has really changed in the past couple of weeks that I haven’t been following.


The Chosen Company has been accused of executing surrendering Russian troops and POWs. Pretty convincing accusations. They were previously accused of the same, but vaguely and far less details have been exposed.


Hours after a battle in eastern Ukraine in August, a wounded and unarmed Russian soldier crawled through a nearly destroyed trench, seeking help from his captors, a unit of international volunteers led by an American.

Caspar Grosse, a German medic in that unit, said he saw the soldier plead for medical attention in a mix of broken English and Russian. It was dusk. A team member looked for bandages.

That is when, Mr. Grosse said, a fellow soldier hobbled over and fired his weapon into the Russian soldier’s torso. He slumped, still breathing. Another soldier fired — “just shot him in the head,” Mr. Grosse recalled in an interview.

Mr. Grosse said he was so upset by the episode that he confronted his commander. He said he spoke to The New York Times after what he regarded as unwarranted killings continued. It is highly unusual for a soldier to speak publicly about battlefield conduct, particularly involving men whom he still considers friends.

But he said he was too troubled to keep silent.

The shooting of the unarmed, wounded Russian soldier is one of several killings that have unsettled the Chosen Company, one of the best-known units of international troops fighting on behalf of Ukraine.


The article then goes to present stories of some of the killings and evidence, etc. O’Leary (the commander of the unit) denied the accusations and said all was proper. It certainly doesn’t seem to be the case though, inconsistencies in his stories aside:

Soon after The Times began asking questions, Mr. O’Leary vowed to find out who was speaking to journalists.

“Some stuff the reporter brought up was only known by a few people,” he wrote in a group chat. “But we will cast a wide net regardless to snare the rabbit.”[…]

One soldier asked if video of the shooting existed. “Because if not, it’s sound,” he wrote. “Unless someone grasses on him,” he added, using the British slang term for reporting someone to the authorities.

“No go pro footage, didn’t happen,” another soldier wrote.[…]

Mr. O’Leary wrote that the accusations were baseless. He said that anyone who had spoken to reporters faced years in prison for releasing confidential information.

“I’d prefer to stop any investigation before it starts and simply say it was a misunderstanding,” he wrote. “End of day, we are brothers.”
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The problem with Gripen is that there aren't many of them, so Ukraine could only get a few, & Ukraine's logistics are already too complicated.
True. On the other hand France got only 26 Mirage 2000-5 and it seems they will now be receiving those to complement the F-16. I think a few Gripen would have been more useful than a few Mirage 2000. Meteor is one important reason, I suspect also better radar (?)

Is there any advantage in the Meteor vs the latest AIM-120 variant? As for "allowed".... is anyone prohibiting Sweden from doing this? I'm a bit confused. It seems to me that Swerve is spot on with his response as to why that's not what's happening. F-16s are by far the most logical western jet to supply to Ukraine.
Meteor has much larger no escape zone than AIM-120B/C. Not sure how it compares to AIM-120D, but I have not seen any indication that the D will be shipped to Ukraine.

Sweden indicated before they entered NATO that NATO membership was a prerequisite for sending the Gripen to Ukraine, and that this could happen after NATO membership was granted. Many were surprised when they said they would not send Gripen after all, the reason given was that they had been "advised" by allies that it would not be helpful for Ukraine to provide two Western fighter jets, and that Ukraine should focus on the F-16. Sounds sensible, however F-16 introduction will be very slow partly because of limitations of how many Ukranian pilots can be trained. Denmark will stop training end of this year, and the US has not been very forthcoming in finding creative solutions. This limitation has frustrated Ukraine, who has expressed a strong interest in the Gripen. Since they could not get Gripen France has offered Mirage 2000-5 instead. Which raises the question: if Sweden could not send Gripen because this will not be helpful, why is France offering to send a few Mirage 2000-5 instead? A mystery. One explanation could be that the real reason Sweden cannot send Gripen is because the US did not allow it. Mirage however cannot be stopped by the US admin...

Ukraine and Sweden: no to the Gripen, yes to the radar plane - Aeroflap
French Mirage-2000 fighters are headed to Ukraine. Here’s how Kyiv will use them. - Breaking Defense
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some people still seem to believe that "Ukranian Nato membership" was a main issue and a driver for attacking Ukraine, since 2014.

Daniel Szeligowski provides a timeline of events that helps understand why this was never the real issue:

Daniel Szeligowski on X: " Setting the record straight on Putin's approach to Ukraine https://t.co/tbeABAGWXR" / X

For those without access to twitter:

Thread by @dszeligowski on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
He's either profoundly ignorant or thoroughly dishonest. Let me show an example;

"In early 2014, Ukraine was a neutral country, with a pro-Russian president, and with 70% of Ukraine's population against NATO membership. Yet Russia bluntly violated Ukraine's neutrality and annexed Crimea, then launched a covert invasion of Ukraine in the east "

Consider this statement. It's all technically true. However he conveniently leaves out the part where the pro-Russian president was deposed in between the two events. It also completely ignores the events of the Euromaidan and anti-Maidan which by my estimation was actually larger, and certainly more widespread with protests taking place from Odessa to Crimea to Donetsk to Kharkov. He also ignores what Ukraine did after the Euromaidan, including it's immediate passage of a highly discriminatory language law, and complete unwillingness to engage with protesters, instead cracking down on them in a manner very similar to what Yanukovich did to the Euromaidan. Given his tone, and the general direction of the article I'm inclined to consider him a liar, using lies of omission to paint the picture he wants to. The rest of the piece is full of similar statements where the words are true, but it's what's left out that completely skews the picture. What's particularly damning is that Ukraine sought NATO membership for much longer then the time period he considers, and this is well known, and was discussed publicly in the 2000's including a discussion of Russian concerns. But he wants to complete ignore this and pretend like pre-2014 Ukraine simply wasn't seeking NATO membership.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Some people still seem to believe that "Ukranian Nato membership" was a main issue and a driver for attacking Ukraine, since 2014.

Daniel Szeligowski provides a timeline of events that helps understand why this was never the real issue:

Daniel Szeligowski on X: " Setting the record straight on Putin's approach to Ukraine https://t.co/tbeABAGWXR" / X

For those without access to twitter:

Thread by @dszeligowski on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
This is a pretty ridiculous “timeline of events”. Not sure if it is worth expanding on because I believe it was discussed numerous times previously. Not only this does not provide anything new, it is also the weakest account of events that I have seen on the subject. When reading similar “op eds”, I personally wonder if the author really believes what they wrote or intentionally alternates reality. If the former, than it is really not all that surprising that we are where we are.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The simple reality is that Russia had no right to invade another sovereign country and the excuses that were given were far from valid. Looking back in recent history, NATO has not made aggressive moves against Russia and in fact when the USSR collapsed most NATO countries and a fair few other western countries made major cuts to their defence budgets and reduced their armed forces. If NATO had been inclined to invade the time would have been when the USSR was collapsing, but instead NATO countries went in the opposite direction and reduced their militaries. Saying that NATO is a threat to Russia does not stack up, the only threat is to Russian expansion.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The simple reality is that Russia had know right to invade another sovereign country and the excuses that were given were far from valid. Looking back in recent history, NATO has not made aggressive moves against Russia and in fact when the USSR collapsed most NATO countries and a fair few other western countries made major cuts to their defence budgets and reduced their armed forces. If NATO had been inclined to invade the time would have been when the USSR was collapsing, but instead NATO countries went in the opposite direction and reduced their militaries. Saying that NATO is a threat to Russia does not stack up, the only threat is to Russian expansion.
Sure. There's no justifying Russia's invasion. The only point here is that the article linked is dishonest.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

This is one is a bit gigantic, I'm two weeks behind so this cover from ~June 26th to July 7th.

Kharkov front.


Russian forces are firmly on the defensive around the Liptsi area with Ukrainian troops re-entering the village of Glubokoe. The pattern of Ukrainian offensive efforts here is similar to Ukrainian pushes last summer, repeated attacks, many lost vehicles, but some successes over time. Inside Volchansk the fog of war makes it hard to tell what exactly is happening. My impression is that Ukraine has pushed Russia back somewhat but this might not be true.


Russia has stepped up cross border efforts in the north-western part of Kharkov region and Sumy region. Most notable Russian forces have taken the village of Sotnitskiy Kazachok. There has been an increase in cross-border raids too.


Russian infantry engaged in Volchansk.


Ukrainian BTR-4E getting hit near Liptsi in one of Ukraine's counter-attacks.


Allegedly Ukrainian MLRS and supply vehicle hit, Volchansk area. We can't see what gets hit, but something launches from that area, and some sort of vehicle approaches it, before Russia strikes, leading to major smoke.


Russian forces take out a BM-21, a Bogdana howitzer, a 2S7, a Krab, and an unknown artillery piece (allegedly a D-30), Kharkov area.


A MaxxPro MRAP destroyed, Kharkov region.


Russian forces recapture a T-72B3 mod'16 from Ukraine near Volchansk. I suspect the vehicle was knocked out and abandoned early in Russia's push into Volchansk and is only now being reported on.


Russian bomb strikes around Volchansk and Neskuchnoe.


Russia hits an improvised crossing over the river Volchya.


Russia hit the Novaya Pochta storage facility in Kharkov and the Kharkov tank factory. Note this delivery service has been used by Ukraine for military logistics before.


Russia's new Irbis ground radar (not to be confused with the Irbis radar on the Su-35S) being used by battelgroup north. This radar supposedly can work both as a counter-battery radar and to detect FPV drones. Which raises an interesting question, what about the Yastreb-AV? Pre-war Russia was using the Zoopark, during the war they started using some Yastreb-AV. Now a third type of counter-battery radar? The system itself is covered in netting and we never get a good look at it but at least the chassis is distinctly different. The Zoopark uses a modified tracked chassis, and the Yastreb I believe uses a BAZ (or may a MZKT?) but this one is riding on a Kamaz.


A group of Russian helos operating near Volchansk. I'm not sure what they're doing, possibly lobbing rockets.


Russian Strela-10, battlegroup north, with factory-produced cage armor, and an improvised anti-drone screen.


A 2S1 of battleground north with log armor, and an anti-drone cage.


Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod continues, though the pace seems to have dropped off quite a bit.


Russian tractors with anti-drone cages, Belgorod region.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have made several attacks from the north near Kupyansk, gaining a little ground. Russian forces have gained ground from Berestovoe, entering Peschanoe south-west of Tabaevka. Control of the village would require storming the hills on the other side of the gully. Russian forces are also pushing towards Makeevka where they have gained some ground. The village itself is currently about to be assaulted. The situation with Stel'makhovka is similar, Russian forces have approached the village in several locations, an assault is imminent. Lastly Russian forces have advanced towards Stepnaya Novoselka, taking the high ground east of the village, and pushing Ukrainian forces out of the eastern side of the village.


Russian forces have advanced not too deeply but along a wide section of the front towards Nevskoe.


Near Terny Ukrainian forces have recaptured a number of positions. It seems Russian attempts to take the village are at an end.


Russia strikes a rebuilt bridge across the Oskol near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy and Osinovo. Russian offensive efforts along the Oskol front continue and Russia is likely trying to put pressure on the logistics in support of this effort.


A rare Ukrainian Tunguska destroyed near Peschanoe.


Russian LMUR strike on a Ukrainian T-64BV near Kupyansk.

 
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