The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

It was in response to you saying Ukraine can't keep them emitting 24/7.

So far, given the circumstances, Ukraine managed to keep its Patriots relatively safe. Beyond my expectations at least. And advantages that either side can produce are a subject for a future debate. The only thing I can contribute to it right now is it seems Ukraine doesn't improve quickly enough in VSHORAD.

Sure, by operating mostly from ambush, and typically fairly far from the front line. They can definitely keep their new Patriots safe the exact same way. And they will contribute to their ability to maintain air defenses, especially as they truly exhaust Soviet SAM stocks, including re-exports from various countries. But it won't stop Russian gliding bomb drops. That's the tradeoff.

 

[Vivendi]

Sure, by operating mostly from ambush, and typically fairly far from the front line. They can definitely keep their new Patriots safe the exact same way. And they will contribute to their ability to maintain air defenses, especially as they truly exhaust Soviet SAM stocks, including re-exports from various countries. But it won't stop Russian gliding bomb drops. That's the tradeoff.

The US and Germany really need to remove some more red lines. Ukraine should be allowed to hit targets deep inside Russia, not just close to the border. Long range missiles could then be used to attack Russian military installations including Russian aircraft used to launch the gliding bombs.

And Sweden should be allowed to transfer some Gripen with Meteor. The long range of the Meteor missile would force Russian planes to stay further away making it harder to launch those glide bombs at targets in Ukraine.

 

[swerve]

The problem with Gripen is that there aren't many of them, so Ukraine could only get a few, & Ukraine's logistics are already too complicated.

 

[Feanor]

The US and Germany really need to remove some more red lines. Ukraine should be allowed to hit targets deep inside Russia, not just close to the border. Long range missiles could then be used to attack Russian military installations including Russian aircraft used to launch the gliding bombs.

It would certainly be a step in the direction of trying to win that fight, it's just not clear that mere permission gets the job done.

And Sweden should be allowed to transfer some Gripen with Meteor. The long range of the Meteor missile would force Russian planes to stay further away making it harder to launch those glide bombs at targets in Ukraine.

Is there any advantage in the Meteor vs the latest AIM-120 variant? As for "allowed".... is anyone prohibiting Sweden from doing this? I'm a bit confused. It seems to me that Swerve is spot on with his response as to why that's not what's happening. F-16s are by far the most logical western jet to supply to Ukraine.

 

[koxinga]

Odd that things like this (completely avoidable) still happen, almost 2.5 years into the war.

The Ukrainian Air Force Parked Six Su-27 Fighters In The Open 100 Miles From The Front Line. A Russian Missile Destroyed Two Of Them.

In nine months, the Russians have hit at least five active Ukrainian warplanes at vulnerable air bases.

www.forbes.com

 

[Feanor]

Odd that things like this (completely avoidable) still happen, almost 2.5 years into the war.

The Ukrainian Air Force Parked Six Su-27 Fighters In The Open 100 Miles From The Front Line. A Russian Missile Destroyed Two Of Them.

In nine months, the Russians have hit at least five active Ukrainian warplanes at vulnerable air bases.

www.forbes.com

Not really that odd. Russia has only really developed the ability to strike non-static targets at 50+ km range over the past ~10 months. For most of this war that capability was absent. And even over this period of time it's been inconsistent. Russia took out ~5 Ukrainian jets and a couple of military cargo trains in September of last year, and then it was quiet for months. Couple with this is the fact that Ukraine has chosen to concentrate assets in a definite attempt to push Russia out of their inroad in Kharkov region from the north. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a political decision from the top, as forces have been pulled from other sections of the front, and Russia is currently making gains in several other areas capitalizing on this weakness (likely the intent all along). This means concentrating jets to strike Russian forces. We've seen some of the heaviest consistent Ukrainian bomb strikes against Russian targets in Volchansk. It appears to have cost Ukraine one jet downed in combat, and now 6 more hit where they're based out of. Overall Russia's ability to strike deep has gotten steadily better over the past ~10 months, and it's unlikely this is going to stop. They've also recently hit a couple of military trains, and Russian SEAD strikes against larger SAM systems have gone up in number. This is one of the big challenges Ukraine's incoming F-16s face. The totals committed to Ukraine are ~100 jets. Ukraine currently operates by my estimation less then half that number. Increasing the number of jets by that number means exposing them to more strikes. Hiding them far away and dispersing means less efficient and more complex operations, and with that many jets, you can't really go to basing no more than 2-3 jets per airfield. So 4-6 at a single airfield will be a thing.

 

[seaspear]

In regards to the airstrike on the Myrhorod base this video cites evidence of video splicing ,in Russia's claims ?

 

[Feanor]

Ukraine's defenses around Toretsk seem to be crumbling unusually quickly. After several Russian advances across a section of the front around Mayorsk, they've now apparently broken into Novogorodskoe (renamed New York of all things...) big time from the south. What started looking as a distraction now appears to be a major effort with a realistic attempt to take Toretsk. I can't help but wonder if this is because Ukrainian troops have gotten complacent in an area that hasn't been active in almost two years. Note, so far these are preliminary efforts. Russia has to finish taking Novogorodskoe where there is an impressive advance but the center is still in Ukrainian hands. Russia would also have to take the villages of Druzhba, Pivdennoe, Zaliznoe, Pivnichnoe, and Nelipovka, before an earnest effort for Toretsk itself. In practice this is a spread out suburban and semi-rural sprawl and they sort of blend together. Time will tell if this effort comes to fruitition. Russia is embarking on it's 5th effort, currently being engaged in Chasov Yar, Krasnogorovka, Volchansk, and pushing on Seversk. In Avdeevka Russian success came from a concentrated effort. The current effort is distinctly not concentrated, presumably intended to stretch Ukrainian reserves as thin as possible. This could pay off handsomely with the fall of 3 cities with minimal resistance as Ukrainian forces are fixed around Chasov Yar and Volchansk, and possibly even a successful push to the Oskol. This could end in failure on multiple locations. Only time will tell.

I also can't help but wonder if this effort is as a result of stubborn Ukrainian defenses around Chasov Yar, though there Russia has finally apparently taken the canal neighborhood. In principle the fall of Toretsk also opens the road to Konstantinovka, but this is an even more distant prospect then the fall of Chasov Yar, or of cutting the road Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka. In general Toretsk is of course also a prize in an of itself, it also pushes Ukrainian forces back from Gorlovka, allowing the city to experience a modicum of peaceful life, and it may trigger Russian reconstruction efforts in the city.