KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Part 2 of 2:
Reality is addressed in the very same posts. More:
Gunners with Kozachenko's 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd Artillery Brigade, both in the Donetsk region, said they were desperate for more 155mm rounds for their Western cannons, which had given them an edge over Russia earlier in the war.
In my opinion, everyone could certainly do without the “positivity” and a sip of reality is in order. Isn’t it obvious? This also answers your question of why I assume everything he/they say is false.
It was the younger generation that came to the streets during Maidan and Maidan 2. Not the majority, but they did. Those who didn’t, have zero interest in going to the war to die (they are the majority). Those who did, either already went or think they have had enough, and fairly so. There was some talk here about the “draft dodgers” and whatnot in a negative light before. Personally, I would cross the border and load a plane to some “normal” country with not strictly conservative immigration policy (like Canada, for instance) to get the hell out in the very beginning. Why? Because I would be fairly certain that Ukraine had failed me and there is no future for me there and definitely and especially not for my kids. But that’s my personal view of it. When at least a third of the country feels the same way and acts on it, and about a quarter of them leave to Russia to begin with, that should tell you something, but who is listening?
The US is the last lifeline for Ukraine, so it would be dumb for Zelensky to say anything definitively negative about the aid delays.
The second problem is that Russians are not going to give up all of a sudden (even if the emperor suddenly leaves this world) and they will keep grinding and taking more territory until they meet their goals. Those goals are not static either. They took more territory than they lost last year. They already took significantly more this year than they lost last year (from the Reuters article cited above):
Russia has gained more territory in 2024 than it lost control of during Ukraine's much-hyped counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, according to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, a Finnish-based volunteer group that analyses satellite imagery and social media content from the war.
Moscow's forces have claimed 654 sq km since the beginning of this year, outstripping the 414 sq km lost to Ukraine between June 1 and Oct. 1 last year, Paroinen said. Russia has gained 222 sq km of territory since only May 2, he added.
The trend is going to continue (and likely accelerate) in the foreseeable future. It is also not unlikely that all Ukrainian gains of 2023 will be reversed well before the end of this year. They will also probably get close enough to Kharkiv to be able to shell it at will (that would be a very significant development and a huge loss to Ukraine). But I am sure some more positive messaging and blaming others will do the trick and work it all out.
Reality is addressed in the very same posts. More:
Gunners with Kozachenko's 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd Artillery Brigade, both in the Donetsk region, said they were desperate for more 155mm rounds for their Western cannons, which had given them an edge over Russia earlier in the war.
In my opinion, everyone could certainly do without the “positivity” and a sip of reality is in order. Isn’t it obvious? This also answers your question of why I assume everything he/they say is false.
Yes they know. I addressed it above.
It was the younger generation that came to the streets during Maidan and Maidan 2. Not the majority, but they did. Those who didn’t, have zero interest in going to the war to die (they are the majority). Those who did, either already went or think they have had enough, and fairly so. There was some talk here about the “draft dodgers” and whatnot in a negative light before. Personally, I would cross the border and load a plane to some “normal” country with not strictly conservative immigration policy (like Canada, for instance) to get the hell out in the very beginning. Why? Because I would be fairly certain that Ukraine had failed me and there is no future for me there and definitely and especially not for my kids. But that’s my personal view of it. When at least a third of the country feels the same way and acts on it, and about a quarter of them leave to Russia to begin with, that should tell you something, but who is listening?
I think the main reason it was no match to the Russian lines is because they didn’t build them. Simple as that. But there certainly were a lot of laughs about the Surovikin lines.
That is because Ukrainian partners don’t owe a thing to Ukraine and are not getting paid for it. But also because, as I said above, we are not what we thought we were (and there was no such realization before we doubled down). Those who provided artillery ammunition to Russia, were likely paid handsomely and they have zero reasons to expect any repercussions from Ukraine.
The US is the last lifeline for Ukraine, so it would be dumb for Zelensky to say anything definitively negative about the aid delays.
The third reason is 100% not it, I couldn’t be more positive. I don’t know what the real reason is. Maybe they didn’t have the mines. Maybe the money went else where (like someone’s bank account). Complete lack of planning is as equally likely. Something else. I believe most partners would have zero issues with supplying the mines today or a month ago and much earlier than that (provided the quantities were there).
The main problem is that in all likelihood Ukraine will never again have as many assets at their disposal as they did in the spring/summer of 2023 (includes both, equipment and trained personnel).
The second problem is that Russians are not going to give up all of a sudden (even if the emperor suddenly leaves this world) and they will keep grinding and taking more territory until they meet their goals. Those goals are not static either. They took more territory than they lost last year. They already took significantly more this year than they lost last year (from the Reuters article cited above):
Russia has gained more territory in 2024 than it lost control of during Ukraine's much-hyped counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, according to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, a Finnish-based volunteer group that analyses satellite imagery and social media content from the war.
Moscow's forces have claimed 654 sq km since the beginning of this year, outstripping the 414 sq km lost to Ukraine between June 1 and Oct. 1 last year, Paroinen said. Russia has gained 222 sq km of territory since only May 2, he added.
The trend is going to continue (and likely accelerate) in the foreseeable future. It is also not unlikely that all Ukrainian gains of 2023 will be reversed well before the end of this year. They will also probably get close enough to Kharkiv to be able to shell it at will (that would be a very significant development and a huge loss to Ukraine). But I am sure some more positive messaging and blaming others will do the trick and work it all out.
