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Fixed, thanks for catching that.Probably unintentional, but the strike was Russian, unless I am missing something.
Fixed, thanks for catching that.Probably unintentional, but the strike was Russian, unless I am missing something.
I'm always amazed how Ukrainian could decide to waste striking resources on purely terroristic attacks. Especialy in the region of Belgorod where a Russian assault toward Vovtchank and Kharkliv is taking place right now. It's not the time for such things.Feanor said:Ukrainian FPV drone strikes have hit a bus full of agricultural workers in Belgorod region killing 6 and wounding 35 others. Given the nature of FPV munitions, to me this looks like an act of terrorism. I also suspect this is counter-productive. Meaning Ukraine will cause more support in Russia for the war effort in general and the cross-border invasion of Kharkov region in particular.
Another example where Ukrainian tried to hit something of value but don't care too much if they hit something else.Feanor said:n Belgorod allegedly a Ukrainian Tochka missile hit a residential building collapsing a section of it. Reports so far indicate 28 dead, rescue work is ongoing. The intended target may have been a power plant located across the street from this apartment complex.
I think they are lobbing old, inacurate projectiles which would have little use on the battle field in small quantities.Feanor said:Ukraine has launched 4 series of strikes against Belgorod. Targets appear to include residential areas and a shopping center. In all likelihood we are once again witnessing indiscriminate lobbing of Grad or Uragan rockets into the city. One strike resulted in 8 wounded civilians. Numbers on the rest are unclear.
Feanor said:Aerial footage of the ruins of Chasov Yar. The town is quickly heading the way of Avdeevka and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
Courageous soldiers. I wonder what their mission was...Feanor said:A fascinating video from inside the Rabotino salient. A couple of Russian infantry on a dirt-bike navigate the moonscape, dodging artillery fire, only to arrive at what is allegedly a Ukrainian dugout where they throw a grenade and enter.
Yes. Nonetheless it stops at the end of the video. I'm not a specialist, but, isn't the machine gun supposed to rotate independently from the turet? It seems wierd that the whole turet has to rotate to aim with the machine gun. I ask this because it looks like the turet rotated out of control the moment it was hit. (That's just my impression.)Feanor said:Russian T-90M eats two FPV drones. It considers catching fire after the first one but decides against it. After that you can see the turret rapidly rotating and the RCWS HMG poiting at the sky presumably to try to shoot down any further inbounds. The tank keeps moving, so presumably it's alive.
The videos on ColonelCassad and Danbiev don't play and remain flouted. On the VK video, the red patch doesn't seem to be the flag of a country. But rather the USSR flag (with a little star on top of the Hammer and Sickle logo. Which may mean something else).Feanor said:2 African soldiers in Russian service. One has a patch of his countries' flag on in addition to the Russian one, but I have to admit, I don't know which country it is.
I would add that's a very old model of soviet bike (Saturn?)...Feanor said:and a motor-cycle with the sidecar just being a fuel drum.
When Danilov joked about the Russian taking T34 form their pedestals, he wasn't too far off.Feanor said:Russian volunteer organizations have taken a BMP-3 MEDEVAC prototype from a museum
LOL: The Mig caught a road sign while landing (or taking off?).Feanor said:Ukraine continues to operate aircraft from roadways and improvised air strips, a wise choice given the series Russian strikes against Ukrainian aircraft over the past ~9 months.
By their ideology, '14 is only the continuation of the Great Patriotic War. At least that's what they want to believe.Feanor said:for LDNR residents the orange-black ribbon has a dual symbolism, Great Patriotic War and the events of '14.
The last seconds of the video is interesting. A Russian soldier toss a grenade, a second time, inside the M113 (the 1st time, the grenade exploded under the vehicle). We don't see any explosion, but some paper flying out. Maybe a proposal for surrender?KipPotapych said:Isn’t it the point where one would throw a white flag out?
I wouldn't be surprised if your initial theory was correct. If a Ukrainian FPV drone doesn't find a target, they hit anything, including civilians. That having been said the best I could find with some quick googling was this;I'm always amazed how Ukrainian could decide to waste striking resources on purely terroristic attacks. Especialy in the region of Belgorod where a Russian assault toward Vovtchank and Kharkliv is taking place right now. It's not the time for such things.
There is a terror element in Ukrainian attacks on the region and the city of Belgorod, but they also try to hit useful targets.
In this case I have doubts that their intent was to kill agriculture farmers while being under attack. IMO they either mistook the passengers for soldiers heading to the front (e.g. with a black and white/IR camera) or they really hit a civilian bus carrying soldiers. The video shows only a bus with smashed glasses. If I were a Russian propagandist I would not miss the occasion to show innocent victims in farmer outfits. (Maybe the local Bellgorod tv did?).
It's a perfectly logical miss. A tragedy.Another example where Ukrainian tried to hit something of value but don't care too much if they hit something else.
According to the Reuters link I posted above, Russians claimed to have shot down the missile that hit this building. By all evidences, it was not shot down since its explosive charge hit a building. It was probably deviated rather than shot down.
Sure. Putin blew the building up himself to justify invading Kharkov region.According to Ukrinform, the explosion was not from an Ukrainian missile but from a bomb planted inside or another cause from inside the building (gaz explosion?). Or, if it was a missile, it came from the north.
I don't believe it, but if someone wants to study the case...
Vampir and Uragan rockets have been the main culprits in previous strikes.I think they are lobbing old, inacurate projectiles which would have little use on the battle field in small quantities.
So there was a bomb planted inside the building, which brought it down. However, if it was a missile, it certainly came from the north. Hard to make this stuff up. But that’s Ukrinform for you.According to Ukrinform, the explosion was not from an Ukrainian missile but from a bomb planted inside or another cause from inside the building (gaz explosion?). Or, if it was a missile, it came from the north.
I don't believe it, but if someone wants to study the case...
That’s certainly a possibility and I thought of that as well. It is some pretty crazy stuff, regardless.Courageous soldiers. I wonder what their mission was...
the dug out he entered doesn't seem to be the target. He threw the grenade to make sure before taking refuge inside.
I also thought that the turret looked to be rotating uncontrollably. But I am also no expert here, haha.Yes. Nonetheless it stops at the end of the video. I'm not a specialist, but, isn't the machine gun supposed to rotate independently from the turet? It seems wierd that the whole turet has to rotate to aim with the machine gun. I ask this because it looks like the turet rotated out of control the moment it was hit. (That's just my impression.)
I am fairly certain those people (LNR/DNR) know exactly who and why they are fighting. I don’t believe the WW2 is it.By their ideology, '14 is only the continuation of the Great Patriotic War. At least that's what they want to believe.
Yeah, it is unclear what happened after the video was cut. I was wondering about it myself. My first thought was that they threw the grenade out of the vehicle along with whatever that thing was that is clearly visible. Another thought was an explosion that threw whatever it was out, but guessing there would be more evidence of an explosion than that. Also thought that it may have been the flag I was talking about, but that would have likely been a little too late. Terrible circumstances either way you look at it.The last seconds of the video is interesting. A Russian soldier toss a grenade, a second time, inside the M113 (the 1st time, the grenade exploded under the vehicle). We don't see any explosion, but some paper flying out. Maybe a proposal for surrender?
Or was it just the only visible part of the explosion? Grenades can make very little smoke, but there should be at least some dust or a shock wave visible on the video. Or did the grenade explode later?
Russian volunteers fighting as part of the Siberian Battalion and Freedom of Russia Legion against Russia’s invasion force called on the Russian military deployed in Kharkiv region to surrender and switch to the side of truth.
You would be extremely disappointed if you are positive about that. That’s my opinion and I have very little to support it with beside some personal knowledge and common sense. Those guys are looked at as worse than traitors that are also not very capable. But that is Ukrinform for you again. I would also suggest that it would have the opposite effect and rile people up instead. For example, if these guys were in that M113, there would likely be no flag that they could throw to prevent what was coming. All that is provided there is any truth to it to begin with, because that really contradicts the basic logic, in my opinion.Expecting massive surrender would be dreaming. But I'm positive it can have some audience. Russian soldiers are more brainwashed now than 2 years ago. But certainly not all of them.
Yes. But we came from "13 agro workers killed" to "two women wounded" (and a guy with a small wound on his shoulder).Feanor said:It appears the journalist got there a a bit late. We do have footage from the hospital of what appear to be two women injured. The bus reportedly belonged to a local agro-industrial enterprise.
Feanor said:Sure. Putin blew the building up himself to justify invading Kharkov region.Ukrinform is a garbage source.
Yes. They regularly come back with the staged attack script that nobody believes. They are not very subtle.KipPotapych said:So there was a bomb planted inside the building, which brought it down. However, if it was a missile, it certainly came from the north. Hard to make this stuff up. But that’s Ukrinform for you.
No. It's not Ukrinform. It's my opinion. Also note that I said that I don't believe that they will get result. Only that they can get an audience.KipPotapych said:You would be extremely disappointed if you are positive about that. That’s my opinion and I have very little to support it with beside some personal knowledge and common sense. Those guys are looked at as worse than traitors that are also not very capable. But that is Ukrinform for you again.
No we don't. There is no change in the story claimed. We have some photos, but in many cases photos of victims won't be released, and even names don't always get released. We have an absence of confirmation, not a confirmation of absence.Yes. But we came from "13 agro workers killed" to "two women wounded" (and a guy with a small wound on his shoulder).
I agree, it was still not a legitimate target.
Fighterbomber denies it, and suggests a downed Ukrainian Mi-8/17 may be the real story. Again for the time being I would regard him as accurate. He reports on Russian losses even when there are no other sources. Though of course anything is possible. Let's see if footage emerges.Ukraine claims one more Ka-52 Alligator.
If the point is that Russia is suffering increased casualties when opening up a whole new front to attack from then... yes? We don't need Ukrinform to tell us that. Are the casualties there greater then Ukraine's on the defense? Probably, minus the first positions that were overwhelmed by surprise. On the other hand we are seeing continuous groups of Ukrainian POWs. My initial view was that they caught some Ukrainian detachments off guard, but it now seems to be continuing. I would regard the specific numbers as thoroughly untrustworthy. Are the casualties in Kharkov drastically higher then during Russia's push on Avdeevka or on Artemovsk/Bakhmut? I don't think so. The scale of the fighting is much smaller. So Ukrinform reporting numbers drastically higher then those battles, even as Ukraine is losing ground at a fairly rapid rate and groups of Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered looks to me like an attempt to put lipstick on a pig. I suspect Russia's losses here in totals are much lower then the two battles just mentioned due to the lower scale of the fighting, simply fewer total forces involved (from both sides). I suspect they're losing more then Ukraine, they're on the offensive, but this isn't guaranteed.They also report record number of Russian casualities. Number that I never saw before. You can say that these numbers don't mean anything to you, but I think they do. These numbers are not always the same. So these fluctuation have forcibly a basis. Even if you don't believe the numbers they put forth, you can see a trend.
I would just say that the number reported today was twice the average of high intensity periods, 4x the numbers of low intensity periods, and 50% higher than the highest number I can remember of. That's it 50% higher than the last highest, if you will.
The number of destroyed tanks and armour and other vehicles is also remarkably high, thought not off the charts.
IMO this is an indication that Russians are suffering very high losses in the Kahrkiv/Vovtchank direction.
So they are reporting (citing the Ukrainian MoD) that Russians lost 1,740 troops in the last 24 hours? They also lost 31 tanks, 42 AFVs, 15 pieces of artillery, 4 MLRS, 59 vehicles and fuel tankers, among other things (the list is not complete, as I didn’t include everything there is). And you think this is reasonable? Even for trend indicators? Not quiet and not even close. Those are all completely ridiculous numbers. Pretty much every Ukrainian source (not Ukrinform or MoD and the like) report major issues, lack of manpower, lack of organization, lack of communications, and so on.They also report record number of Russian casualities. Number that I never saw before. You can say that these numbers don't mean anything to you, but I think they do. These numbers are not always the same. So these fluctuation have forcibly a basis. Even if you don't believe the numbers they put forth, you can see a trend.
I would just say that the number reported today was twice the average of high intensity periods, 4x the numbers of low intensity periods, and 50% higher than the highest number I can remember of. That's it 50% higher than the last highest, if you will.
The number of destroyed tanks and armour and other vehicles is also remarkably high, thought not off the charts.
IMO this is an indication that Russians are suffering very high losses in the Kahrkiv/Vovtchank direction.
My apologies, but didn’t we discuss this very subject a page or two ago?Both Russia and Ukraine as in my previous posts have indicated high levels of disabled ,Russia has even had figures out indicating a thirty percent higher disabled rate in the national male age group that could be surmised to be involved in the conflict ,This graph shows this increase it would be difficult to accurately extrapolate casualty figures from this war certainly in those killed, usually more wounded than killed is typical I understand of wars , but even a casualty with a permanent injury who is not able to resume duties and has to be cared for by the state is perhaps more desirable for opposing sides
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1bfag74
What I was trying to raise is that we might get some accurate idea of casualty figures being discussed if we could work out ratio of wounded to killed in action ,thus accompanying articleMy apologies, but didn’t we discuss this very subject a page or two ago?
Regarding fortifications, interesting piece in Pravda that for some reason I can't find in English about possible embezzlement of the allocated funds.My guess is we will be seeing a lot more of that as things evolve. Mind boggling, really. Not at all surprising, however, as I mentioned it previously. The picture is pretty clear and I would bet that we will be seeing more of missing and botched fortifications than properly constructed ones. “Appropriation” of funds is a real thing and it isn’t possible to hide the issue in this case as it is in other areas (unless Russia suddenly starts losing?). It is a lot of funds too:
Ukraine has allocated nearly 38 billion hryvnias ($960 million) to build an extensive fortification network this year.
![]()
No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance
The much awaited aid package is expected to help Ukraine close the firepower gap. But until replenishments arrive, Russia will continue to exploit Ukraine's weaknesses.apnews.com
In the meantime, Yermak is asking for the sponsor countries to spend 0.25% of their GDP on military assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $300B of the frozen Russian assets.
It is important that allies spend 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Ukraine and unlock $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to support our country.![]()
Андрій Єрмак
Міжнародна робоча група з безпекових питань та євроатлантичної інтеграції України, яку я маю честь співочолювати разом з колишнім генеральним секретарем НАТО Андерсом Фог Расмуссеном, оприлюднила важливий звіт. У ньому ми обґрунтовуємо необхідність і пропонуємо конкретні кроки для майбутнього...t.me
Also mind boggling.
Regarding fortifications, interesting piece in Pravda that for some reason I can't find in English about possible embezzlement of the allocated funds.
![]()
Где фортификации? Харьковская ОВА платила миллионы фиктивным фирмам
Оновлено о 20:30www.pravda.com.ua
My guess is this is just a microcosm of the problems afflicting the Ukrainian state. I expect that after the war ends we will eventually get some good reporting about just how corrupt the mobilization administration was. I'm also curious about theft and ineptitude along the supply chain; I've seen rumblings about units not getting the level of replacement parts or even equipment they expected. Ukraine has a civil administration that is just not functional enough for what the war requires of them and I don't think Western governments have paid nearly enough attention to this as a limiting factor.
Ukraine and corruption? No, no, no. That's a Russian thing. Ukraine is westernized democracy. Not a post-Soviet authoritarian oligarchy. This must be Russian narrative/misinformation.^ It’s not going to work due to the reasons discussed a page or two ago.
More on the fortifications in the Kharkiv area:
These photos show the vicinity of Liptsi and a gift from Ukrainian taxpayers to the enemy. According to the fighters, these barriers have been idle since the summer of 2023.![]()
✙DeepState✙
Про інженерно-фортифікаційну підготовку Харківщини На даних світлинах — околиці Липців та подарунок від українських платників податків для ворога. Зі слів бійців, дані загородження лежать без діла з літа 2023 року. Не будемо робити висновків, нехай їх зробить комісія, яка розглядатиме...t.me
Let's not draw conclusions, let them be made by the commission that will consider the good faith of the contractors who built the defense structures and the responsible persons who were supposed to exercise control.
My guess is we will be seeing a lot more of that as things evolve. Mind boggling, really. Not at all surprising, however, as I mentioned it previously. The picture is pretty clear and I would bet that we will be seeing more of missing and botched fortifications than properly constructed ones. “Appropriation” of funds is a real thing and it isn’t possible to hide the issue in this case as it is in other areas (unless Russia suddenly starts losing?). It is a lot of funds too:
Ukraine has allocated nearly 38 billion hryvnias ($960 million) to build an extensive fortification network this year.
![]()
No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance
The much awaited aid package is expected to help Ukraine close the firepower gap. But until replenishments arrive, Russia will continue to exploit Ukraine's weaknesses.apnews.com
In the meantime, Yermak is asking for the sponsor countries to spend 0.25% of their GDP on military assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $300B of the frozen Russian assets.
It is important that allies spend 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Ukraine and unlock $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to support our country.![]()
Андрій Єрмак
Міжнародна робоча група з безпекових питань та євроатлантичної інтеграції України, яку я маю честь співочолювати разом з колишнім генеральним секретарем НАТО Андерсом Фог Расмуссеном, оприлюднила важливий звіт. У ньому ми обґрунтовуємо необхідність і пропонуємо конкретні кроки для майбутнього...t.me
Also mind boggling.
I wonder why the drastic dip from 2020 to 2022? The data looks strange in more ways then one.What I was trying to raise is that we might get some accurate idea of casualty figures being discussed if we could work out ratio of wounded to killed in action ,thus accompanying article
shows an five hundred and seven thousand men now registered with disability in 2023 the demographer of this stated them to be military invalids this could give some substance to the claims that Russia's casualties for killed in action go into six figures ,this does not include those wounded and able to return to action
В России зарегистрировали рекордное за последние восемь лет число мужчин с инвалидностью в возрасте 31 – 59 лет - Вёрстка
Feanor said:We have an absence of confirmation, not a confirmation of absence.
There weren't much surprise, except, maybe during the first hours. Ukrainians knew that a an attack was being prepared. They saw the forces building up. They just didn't know whhich day it would start.Feanor said:the first positions that were overwhelmed by surprise.
Yes. I think they are reasonable, thought I said, and repeated, that I believe that they are inflated.KipPotapych said:So they are reporting (citing the Ukrainian MoD) that Russians lost 1,740 troops in the last 24 hours? They also lost 31 tanks, 42 AFVs, 15 pieces of artillery, 4 MLRS, 59 vehicles and fuel tankers, among other things (the list is not complete, as I didn’t include everything there is). And you think this is reasonable?
linkUkrenergo said:Today, on May 14, from 21:00 to 24:00, Ukrenergo is forced to introduce controlled emergency shutdowns in all regions of Ukraine
In fact Ukraine added western style corruption on top of their traditional russo-soviet corruption habits.Feanor said:Ukraine and corruption? No, no, no. Ukraine is westernized democracy. Not a post-Soviet authoritarian oligarchy.
Ukrainians write Vovchansk. Is there another spelling in Russian?Feanor said:The eastern section is mostly directed at Volchansk