The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Ukrainians write Vovchansk. Is there another spelling in Russian?
________________

Sign that the situation is critical:
Zelensky postpones all international events with his participation

There is. It's named after the word wolf (волк). There's a river running through the town called Wolf's (Волчья).

 

[KipPotapych]

Rob Lee had expressed his thoughts on the FPRI podcast earlier in the morning today. Worth a listen:

Russia Launches New Offensive in Ukraine - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Russia launched a new offensive near Kharkiv, amidst continuing questions about Ukraine’s ability to mobilize enough manpower to blunt Russian advantages.

www.fpri.org

In short, things aren’t looking that good for Ukraine. The main point and issue is the manpower. I believe I posted a while back an article Rob wrote together with Mike Kofman and Dara Masicot about what they thought was the best plan for Ukraine for this and next year. A bit of a contrast there as well to what he said now. Basically, back to the manpower issues. Mainly due to the delay with the mobilization legislation and inability to increase their forces, the counteroffensive in 2025 may no longer be on the table. This year is not looking good either. Furthermore, the Ukrainian forces are not likely to achieve parity with the Russians pretty much in anything, including manpower and artillery, which is crucial. They were best equipped and prepared last year during their counteroffensive and that is not going to be repeated in the foreseeable future, even if the US finds ways to provide more funding. He also talked about the fortifications, which are severely lacking, but, in his opinion, are getting better (almost feels like he had to say something positive). Long range strikes matter for the long-term, but are not going to make any difference in short. While Russia may be experiencing shortages of equipment, they are not going to run out of tanks or anything else any time soon. They are also adapting and their capabilities increasing. He wouldn’t get excited about the expected arrival of F-16s and advices to… whatever he said, but the idea is to have reasonable expectations. In a nutshell, that’s about it. Have a listen, I was doing something else and listening to it in the background, so may have missed or misunderstood something.

In regard to the long-range strikes. Ukraine hit Bulbek airfield in Crimea. Nothing concrete in terms of what was hit yet. Some are mentioning that there is a cloud cover today over the area, so no immediate satellite imagery will be available. I am guessing that will have an effect on what will be visible/remains once things clear as well. One source suggests the following loses:

- two S-400 launchers
- a 92N6E radar
- a fuel storage
- damaged Mig-31
- three damaged Su-27

Of course, no evidence for anything yet

Досье Шпиона

Относительно удара по аэродрому «Бельбек». Сегодня ночью, 15.05.2024, был нанесен ракетный удар по аэродрому «Бельбек» близ г. Севастополь. В сторону аэродрома было выпущено 10 баллистических ракет ATACMS. Стоит отметить, что команда об обнаружении целей была подана за две минуты до...

t.me

***
Edit 2: Some potential evidence:

Війна в Україні. Втрати техніки.

Уничтоженные российские РЛС 92Н6А комплекса С-400 "Триумф" и грузовик БАЗ 69092 предположительно возле н.п. Вишневое (Суворово) АР Крым. (44.72741, 33.61899) https://t.me/MiliTJournal/13680

t.me

***

To the experts here, Ukrainians seem to be able to hit Russian AD assets, such as S-300 and S-400 on every targeted strike such as above, or so it is reported. Why are these very systems not intercepting these missiles? Lack of capabilities or Russians are doing something wrong?

Edit: a good read from Jack Watling of RUSI too:

In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages

By stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its undertrained army.

rusi.org

 

[KipPotapych]

Regarding fortifications, interesting piece in Pravda that for some reason I can't find in English about possible embezzlement of the allocated funds.

Где фортификации? Харьковская ОВА платила миллионы фиктивным фирмам

Оновлено о 20:30

www.pravda.com.ua

My guess is this is just a microcosm of the problems afflicting the Ukrainian state. I expect that after the war ends we will eventually get some good reporting about just how corrupt the mobilization administration was. I'm also curious about theft and ineptitude along the supply chain; I've seen rumblings about units not getting the level of replacement parts or even equipment they expected. Ukraine has a civil administration that is just not functional enough for what the war requires of them and I don't think Western governments have paid nearly enough attention to this as a limiting factor.

After I made the post, I saw that article cited by someone on Twitter discussing the same subject. There is an article at Censor that talks about it in English as well:

https://amp.censor.net/en/news/3489285/fiktyvni_firmy_otrymuvaly_groshi_za_budivnytstvo_fortyfikatsiyi_na_harkivschyni

There have also been reports about the problems journalists are encountering when investigating corruption and other “sensitive” issues. These problems include death threats, being imprisoned as Russian collaborators, being sent to the meat grinder, etc. Here is one recent example:

Ukraine’s investigative journalists are facing intimidation

While the level of corruption in the country may be on the decline, it’s far from over — and pressure on journalists is only mounting.

www.politico.eu

Edit: more fortifications that were supposed to be built, but appear to had been abandoned less than midway. Deepstate claims this is also located by Lyptsi, 10 km into the Ukrainian territory and in 2023 there were no Russian positions within 15 km of the location. They say that the “permanent shelling” thesis of why this is the situation is basically bs and so are the “enemy propaganda” statements.

✙DeepState✙

Неготові оборонні рубежі біля Липців за 10 км від державного кордону України В продовження вчорашньої теми про ІФС. Багато хто зі скепсисом сприйняв тезу про комісію і пошук винних. І ми мабуть погодимося, адже замість пошуку винних — все списується на "дискредитацію" та вороже ІПСО...

t.me

In another area, this source claims that the main line of defense is behind Vovchansk and consists of ditches and obstacles, as well as trenches. A couple of poor resolution satellite images are provided, but it is hard to say what it is exactly we are looking at. Sorry, Twitter link (there is only one post though that you see below):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1790632151077007846

 

[Feanor]

Quick update. Russian forces have reached Liptsi from the north-east, and have entered the Liptsi summer cootages from the north. Near Volchansk Russia has taken Staritsy, and is continuing to advance inside Volchansk, north of the river. Russian forces are clearing the downtown area, and have taken the north-eastern outskirts. Approximately 20% of the city are under Russian control, but the part they're holding and contesting is the most densely built up area. The are large spread out suburbs to the south of the river. No major movements in other areas so far, just some regular minor advances.

 

[Feanor]

I'm going to translate this large interview with a Ukrainian combat medic. The newspaper is ZN.UA and while they do have an english site, I don't think this article is available in English, only Russian and Ukrainian. The interview is with a Ukrainian named Alexander, call sign Ronin. He has worked with the medical units of 3 different brigades, and has been mobilized and serving since March of '22. After 2 years of service he has finally got some leave to visit home. I have some thoughts about the things he says of my own, I will break up this post by questions and answer, and insert my own comments where I have them outside the quote boxes. Questions from the newspaper are in bold, answer are in plain text.

«Якщо поповнення не буде, то фронт впаде. Зброя є, але стріляти з неї нема кому». Інтерв’ю з передової

Олександр (позивний Ронін) в інтерв’ю ZN.UA розповів, чи вплине зміна проходження ВЛК на ситуацію з поповненням людей на фронті.

zn.ua

Alexander, the situation on the front looks dangerous. And often it feels almost like we're on the cusp of another February 24th 2022. How does the situation look from your side, on the front?

- I wouldn't say it's like 2022. Russians have really grown; they've developed their army, correct their mistakes, and don't act like they did two years ago.

Where they need to assault, they don't spare anyone. They have the manpower.

The Russians - have all the same as us, only our people already know that it's all lies. That's why many of those who have been at war for a long time, and want to survive, when they get various threatening orders they simply agree, and then sit in their dugouts, understanding that the chances of survival if they carry out those orders are minimal.

And I can understand then. Because many orders are honestly insane. In the chase for X's and arrows on a map many commanders don't worry about their people at all. They don't think about what those crosses are to do in the middle of an open field, and how they can dig in there.

If we stand on a position, it's very hard to knock us off of it. Especially if it's a brigade that's been at war for a while. But there are many brigades that sat who knows where. They're thrown closer to the front, and they get smashed there in two-three days. For us and for them. But they train for 6 months...

I'll tell you a story. Not too long ago there was an assault. Ours smashed 4 BMPs and took a driver POW. We asked him how it was. For 6 montsh the Russians had a mockup of this exact position, and before they were set up there, they trained specifically for that. Yes, there was an assault, and they're gone. But they did it. They have the people, desire, and inspiration.

In our brigades, from a company only one fifth fights. And when the question comes for reinforcements - we don't get any , no. Again, if the reinforcements need to be trained, who will fight now? Unfortunately, nobody is systematically working on this. Everyone is for some reason excited that we will get western kit, attack, and win...

And we even last year looked at this and thought; ok we will get all this equipment, but who will do the assault? Do they know how to do something? Do they have real combat experience, or do they just tell stories about their heroics on tik-tok, while sitting in a trench in a clean uniform?

Approximately that is what ended up happening. There was kit. But people... they allegedly trained on some training grounds on NATO standards. But what are NATO standards? For example you come to a medic and ask, what do you do in such and such situation. And he says; "You need aerial MEDEVAC" You tell him we don't have that, and he says "what do you mean you don't? Silence scene.

To me this sounds very logical. Going back even to the summer offensive, I recall an interview with a Ukrainian soldier who described their mine-clearing training in the west being conducted on the assumption that a MICLIC would make an opening long enough to pass the entire minefield. Iirc when he asked his instructors what to do if the minefield is deeper then that, they didn't have an answer. This is of course anecdotal evidence at best, but there are certain patterns there. It seems their training was done without understanding the real context of the current war.

- They seem to have already understood this and are re-writing their standards.

- Yes, they will rewrite their standards on our experience. The question is that unfortunately, we didn't have a systemic approach.

I will tell what happened in front of my eyes. There are brigades that, excuse me, manager to f**k up the best of positions. How they managed to do this, I honestly don't understand. It's some sort of a trick. They stand on highgrounds that they lose. Then more and more units grabbed and sent there. The new units come, they don't have any coordination, they don't know anything, who's right, who's left, who's shooting at them and why. A unit comes for a day, and after a day withdraws, smashed. Because yes, without normal coordination, fighting is impossible in principle. In normal brigades theirs regional defense, there's coordination. Why isn't this spread across the whole front?

So we look at, with my brothers, at this Avdeevka. All kinds of things happened, maybe they snuck through the swere, prepared well. But, damn, combrades dear, you sat in this Avdeevka for eight years, even before the full scale war. Where are the two defense lines around? Where is the third defense line, where is the fortified strong point? Why were the troops retreating from Avdeevka hiding in some sort of holes and trying to return fire? Who came up with that?

Yes, an offensive has begun. But the forces we see declared, it doesn't look too serioues. God knows. Near Kupyansk they had 150 thousand, and they didn't pass. Near Sumy and Kharkov, 75 thousand. Hard to say what they can win. But they can drink some of our blood, of course.

Most dangerous is where they fight systematically. Their airborne has already figured out what not to do, they keep their people safe. Their technique is they probe the entire front, where they find a weak spot, they hit with everything there. They can dig in very well. As soon as they grab a spot, they immediately dig in. They can lose some people. But getting out of there afterwards is very complicated.

Our feeling is that if there are no reinforcements, the front will fall, because we will have nobody left to fight. In our btln there are weapons, but there is nobody to fire them.

If there are reinforcements, of course we will hang on, but strategically something has to be decided. Because this won't end well.

I think he's slightly misinformed about Avdeevka. The sewer attack was a nasty surprise for Ukraine, but the real defeat came when Russian forces sliced through the housing sector south of the chemical plant. Airstrikes were key there, I don't know that any unit could have held that, absent friendly air support and air defenses (and they were very much absent).

 

[Feanor]

- Reinforcements, recruits, leave much to be desired. Granpas. Many of those that were caught in a bar. Instructors complain that they can't teach them anything. That's from one side. From the other - first off there aren't enough instructors, and second off often instructors get picked from god-knows-who. They often just get appointed, and teach themselves on the internet.

- Unforunately, it's often like that. That's the people we've had this entire war. Except maybe the first wave. We're hoping something will change now. And the reinformcent won't be, one a druggie, one over 50, one something else. One time they sent me a person after a heart attack. We sent her back to Kiev and had her written off.

Let's begin from the fact that for the past half a year we've gotten no reinforcements. Before that all the waves were roughly the same. They tried to grab druggies, alcoholics, people from rural areas, etc. Someone who they're not sorry to lose, and they can't given a bribe. We all saw it.

When it comes to training, it's all about the same and it happens at teh combat level. Training that you get in a combat btln, nobody else systematically provides. Basic training has been reduced from 3 months to 1. It's a conveyer, without making sure they retain skills. Faster, faster... What they always come to us with - it's nothing, almost zero. That's why at the btln level, nobody is sent anywhere until they get at least two-three weeks of combat training. That was when we had reinforcements. Now that we don't have any, other problems began.

There's a lot of truth in that, when it comes to unprofessionalism and inhumane treatment of some lower level commanders to their fighters. But half or even more then half refers to high levels. Because precisely those high levels demanded those kinds of decisions, and used those kinds of controls.

Unfortunately, this is a system. Many commanders have serious psychological problems. For example, after being wounded, they undergo a psychological shift, that the commander is unwilling to admit (especially when there's the dea that real wounds are only missing arms/legs, the rest is foolishness that requires no attention). Problems with psychology prgress, take their toll, they developed unprovoked aggression, lack of empathy, hysterics, painful decisions, etc. Subordinates practically can't do anything with this, live like they're on top of a powderkeg

And here's the question; where is that system that can track all of this at every level? Which people and what they can really be used for? Where ist he professional overview, especially in situations where people's decisions really impact a lot? Changes in passing the Military Medical Commission, where order 402 was somewhat corrected, in my opinion didn't change anything. In principle it was that even all the time. Well they removed the term "limited capable". Colonels rub their hands - there will be reinforcements. But a person who has a twisted spine can't be a fighter. He will be able to work in the rear. So we will have 70% in the rear all across Ukraine. So what?

Globally, this won't change anything. On the other hand things have become more transparent. Before you saw "limited capable" adn though; limited in what way? Now at least it's clear, you can stand guard duty, and sit in HQ. Ok let him sit.

But our main problem is not this, but in the ineffective use of people. The inability to put them where they can show their best qualities. And often complete lack of care of those people.

Limited capable is a term that goes back to the Soviet era and refers to someone who can do some military service but not others. They typically won't be drafted in peacetime but can be put into some military service in war time.

It's interesting he brings up druggies repeatedly. Russian sources often talk about finding needles and drug paraphenalia on captured Ukrainian positions. I tended to dismiss this as propaganda, but maybe not?

- There is an opinion that the lack of norms for demobilization in new laws, on the one hand has caused service members to lose grow despondent, on the other - have even less trust in political leadership among those who are to be mobilized. And the results of this are very negative.

- I think this is the absolute truth. Although I understand why they don't do this. Because if they add demobilization even after 36 months (and for many this isn't that far away), then many will soon demobilize. And then the question; who will fight?

But this is not a solution. Ok, I don't sit non-stop in the trenches, although I've been in many situations. But specifically being in the zone of real combat action in a long period of time, changes the psychology, traumatizes. At a certain point it becomes clear (and I can already see this) that those who are at war for a long time, start to fall apart - psychologically, physically, in different ways. They endlessly stay in hospitals, they don't go anywhere. I once though myself "Yes, how much jail time? What am I even doing here?"

 

[Feanor]

- Are there many AWOL?

— Many. First off, from those who just came. But the worst are those who are at war for a long time. Because they are left with no other choice.

I'll tell you how it can be. People sit at a difficult position for two-three months. They rest is a damp cellar under artillery fire, and then go back to their position. And then instead of rest they're told "Five days on this training grounds - now you're an assault unit!"

Because some brigade lost their high ground. At quiet village, sit there and don't let anyone approach. They lost it. And they didnt' do anything in their own rear. 4 kms of fields. Nothing dug out. Dugouts that are barely underground. FPV drones fly around, no decent EW, many strange organisms getting in each others way. And the Russians cam. They started hitting with artillery, with anything they have. Two btlns ran because it got bad.

So to assault they send people that just came from front line positions. So practically everyone went AWOL. What are they to do? They know exactly how this assault will end, and don't understand, why. Result: during this time, - AWOL of many people that fought well and could fight. There's your reinforcements. What do you need another mobilization for if you can't even keep the people you have? And this is all at the brigade command and higher.

To be clear here he's talking about counter-attacks to regain lost positions. "Organisms" here is clearly an insulting way to refer to service members that don't know what they're doing.

- By the way, what do people do with AWOL?

- These days is time off, without pay. You can go AWOL in the first day of the month, and come back in the last. Yes you won't be paid a penny. But what can they do to you? You came back.

Even lookin at the "scary laws" that were passed, we understand it's easier then ever to refuse orders. You can refuse twice. On the third you don't refuse, but just go AWOL. And thus in a circle.

In reality draconian methods won't work, because there are so many of these people... And they're not children. Many of them know how to fight. Who will search for them? Some brigades send teams, someone gest returned. But most return on their own. Sometimes the political officer talks to them for a long time on the phone, sometimes they run out of money. Only about a 10th of AWOLs result in trials, the very worst ones. Because everyone understands: ok we imprison them, and who will fight?

What to do with this systematically? Honestly - I don't know. I think until there are systematic changes in the structure of the army, nothing can be done.

- It's know that there is a shortage of command staff. And those who are qualified, and have been studying for many years and could fill those gaps, sit in the rear and don't approach the front.

- It doesn't mean anything that they were studying if they don't have combat experience. The best command staff comes from the bottom. When sergeants, soldiers, who have gone through a lot, really fought, saw who is in charge of them, decide to become officers, then commanders. This is one side.

The other - a changed psyche. I'll explain. If you have one, and then another line up of subordinates that all end up dead or wounded, then by the third one you won't pay attention anymore. It's just psychology. When a company commander loses almost all as 200 and 300, and he says "Demote me. My people are gone." but they don't demote him and give him another company - he won't care about those people. We all live under this, and we can't escape it.

And commanders who don't have anything to do with this, just read a lot - what will they do here? Draw Xs and Os? They already do that.

If you really think of new methods of war, how to use FPV drones, what to do in the absence of air support, etc. then your work in the rear will be useful and you do what's necessary. If you just graduated some academy, and all you know how to do is order people into trenches, and to not retreat (and mostly know only this) then they're not very useful.

But there is no command. There really is a shortage of officers.

These problems exist on both sides, though I can't say if to an equal extent. Similar complaints have definitely cropped up in Russian social media from soldiers.

 

[Feanor]

- So for example I recently had an officer write to me, who was at war since '14, but as a result of a disciplinary infraction lost his rank. He is still at war. And he says if he had his rank back, he could be useful. What do you think of this?

- They should try. Take a specific person, put him in a specific spot, at least as a sergeant. Let him show what he can do. Why not bring him back?

- What do they most often strip people of rank for?

- I've never encountered this. But from what I've seen - most likely because he didn't get a bunch of people killed following an order from above. I know a good company commander that refused to send 18 people to assault, which is all he had left. He said we will defend, that's all. Now he's being criminally prosecuted. I don't know how this will end. Everyone understands that someone has to fight. A rotten head spreads miasma everywhere.

Weapons will come, artillery works well. Why do HIMARS and Excalibur not work so well anymore? Because they learned to spoof their geolocation. They developed their Lancets that cost nothing, but kill tanks, kill those very same Paladin's that cost immeasurably more. And this is complicated. They can maky a bunch of Lancets and launch all at the same time. Where are ours in the same quantity?

We can still defense. We have the how. The main is ask the right questions. Reorganize everything, plug holes, interest people, and bring back many who are AWOL.

- How can you currently motivate people? Those who have been fighting for a long time?

- If I was a commander... I know people who trust me. I would say "Trust me. If you come back, you'll get leaves on time. We will work out plans how to fight and where. No idiotic assingments. I value your life and your work. If you return and will fight, I guarantee what I say." I think many would come back.

If people know that they are being treated as expendable, they will come back when they run out of money. They will sit on positions where there isn't much shooting, get their hundred, and leave again.

Unfortunately there is often no brotherly influence that should be in an army that's at war. If soldiers don't like, and despise their command, you won't be able to wage war.

- Money - isn't a motivator?

- Who needs that money in a situation like this? If you become maimed, who will feed your family?

- If a soldier will know; when something happens with him his entire family will be taken care of, would that play a role?

- Yes, a major one. For example, soldier sat in beastial conditiosn on a position, and then they're stripped of pay because they refused orders to go assault a position afterwards.

 

[Feanor]

- But what about the motivation of those who should come as their replacement?

- People aren't agressively against mobilization. Most of those who come to me say that they're afraid of being under the leadership of fools, that will get them killed. At least that's what it's like in my circle, in Kiev. And even in the army I don't know anyone who would say that they don't want to defend their coutnry. It's an answer as to why people are ducking mobilization. And it's an answer as to what to do to make people go to the military commissariats themselves.

Here's an example. An order arrives to ensure a brigade reserve, people are assigned to it. One of them is an instructor in tactical medicine, that's good for completing extreme assingments. Reseve trains. Then some of teh personnel goes to the infantry. But the instructor of tactical medicine goes to the assault team. An assaultment to clear enemy positions. I know that in this situation, at the level of the chief medical officer for the brigade we were able to resolve this question, the medic ended up doing the functions of a medic and was very useful. But unfortunately many in these situations don't don't attempt to resolve anything, let things happen, don't protect their people, because they're worried about prosecution or ruining their career. And then you get cook-assaultment, doctor-paratrooper. As a result, 200-s and 300-s. The 200-s get a medal.

In case anyone has forgotten, 200 is code for KIA, 300 is code WIA.

- What's your opinion on all the noise about people's human rights being limited due to mobilization, etc.?

- I understand one; if Russian troops come after and decide that someone needs to pay in blood, they won't be interested in any human rights. They will simply put them in the front and that's all.

Here I think at the national level we need to decide our priorities. What are we doing? If we're at war, what are we willing to pay? And the price will be high. We can't keep telling stories that tomorrow we will win. We watched how in the rear they told stories that we're fighting against "Ivan the fool" and everyone on the front line was sick of hearing it. Because if we're fighting fools and we can't win, then we are also fools. Yes they're not big on human rights or humane treatment. But they have resources that they're sending at us.

- Why this lack of understanding by the majority, the seriousness of the situatoin? Is this because of a lack of an honest adult conversation byt the authorities with the public?

- People still don't understand the difference between the media reality and actual reality. In the media reality you can one hundred times defeat someone. You can film a strike against a fuel storage facility and say "Look! We hit them". Ok you hit them. And? They lost a lot of fuel? They won't have weapons in their army? They already set up schemes through middle-men and get all western components in larger quantities then us. We get the bird, and get stories about how everything will work out and how worried everyone is. There they don't tell anything, they just sell it through middle-men.

Media president becamse the president of a country. But he still lives in media reality.

We need to honestly say to people that everything is not as we've been telling you this entire time. From there other side there are no fools, and we don't have nonstop victory. We have a very hard and problematic situation, for this and this reason. We don't want to lose a whole country. We want to keep it for this and this reason. If you're with us, let's do something.

Even Stalin at the beginning of the war was able to squeeze out "brothers and sisters". And then it decided much.

While there are two realities; one - media, the other - real, nothing will happen.

At some point it will be like the Opium Wars in China with England. The English Corps lands, smashes a Chinese army, a second. Meanwhile the Chinese Emperor tells that the Chinese smashed, one English army then another. All the way until the English corps came right to the emperors palace.

- When the government machine doesn't work, we can only count on miracles and one people. And we already know how this miracle was at the beginning of this full scale war - people got up and went to fight.

- The question is that the people, who got up, know what to do, and not just get up.

Right now we need to send people to well working units. Train them now. If these people can be sent to effective units, you will get results. But if they just get up, they will get killed. Because it's all very pretty and patriotic - flag waving and all. In reality it will be until the first Grad volley, they first cluster munition bombardment, after which there will be nothing left.

Only a strong state can make an army strong. No matter how motivated or trained Ukrainians come to the AFU.

 

[Feanor]

- Honest conversation - about keeping our country in what borders?

- Those who fight don't want to give anything, not one treeline. Many of our boys died there. Right now Russians are advancing on Kharkov and Sumy. From what I saw they can only be successfuly if we don't defend. But for these two years our brigade lost practically no positions. Plus-minus hundreds of meters. Without any special weapons. Yes Americans gave Paladins, 777, enough foreign SP howitzers, but I can't say that our brigade is the best supplied.

Skillful construction of positions, coordination of action. Because when actions are coordinated, it's very complex for anyone to assault. So we can fight. And people fight. And even there where we retreat, it's because they didn't prepare reserve positions. Beyond there are still strongpoints, there is something to grab on to.

But the question is, what we can really do. The first borders have to be inside your own heart first of all. Maybe we don't give anything. We will simply be killed without weapons and that will end it.

but most likely the final borders won't be draw by us. Like Truman and Stalin divided Korea in two, and thus it remains.

We don't know what has been drawn for us, but no matter what, we don't lose if stay human inside.

I wanted to publish this because it illustrates realities of the war that don't get captured in the kinds of materials we typically have to work with. Sorry for the giant piles of posts, there's a rather small character limit given the length of this thing.

 

[KipPotapych]

That is a good read, Feanor. Thanks. I don’t think most of what he said is something new. Some have been talked about in the media, some discussed here, some is easy to observe just by following what is happening.

I may be wrong, but in regard to Avdiivka, I believe he was saying that people have been sitting there for 8 years and no one took the intuitive to create secondary, tertiary, etc lines to fall to in case of a breech.

If you allow, I am going to make a correction to your translation in this part of the interview (corrected):

They can dig in beautifully and very quickly. As soon as they grab a spot, they immediately dig in. They can lose some people. But smoking them out of there afterwards is very difficult.

I believe this is another key that some people still don’t understand. Russians have superb engineering abilities that were acknowledged by probably by everyone except the most lazy commentators. It was also discussed here previously (I know I talked about it for sure). But some are still not convinced that this is the case. For example:

In interviews, American officials express confidence that many of these Russian gains are reversible once the spigot of new arms is fully opened, most likely sometime in July, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine finds ways to bring more — and younger — troops to the front lines.

White House Worries Russia’s Momentum Is Changing Trajectory of Ukraine War

Multiple factors are helping Russia’s military advance, including a delay in American weaponry and Moscow’s technological innovations on the battlefield.

www.nytimes.com

The article is from just a couple of days ago, but this is an ongoing thing. Personally, I am not sure whether people making the comments are that incompetent and believe it or they say it for the public consumption. While we have seen what happened in Zaporozhie, for example, isn’t necessarily obvious because Russians have been digging and fortifying and mining there for months, we have all seen what happened at the Bakhmut direction, for instance, during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. And what happened was very little. This is in spite of the fact that the counteroffensive began just two weeks after Russia took over the area.

It’s actually a pretty weird assumption (moreover, “confidence”) on its own, even without the knowledge that we posses from the recent past (and present), that the “gains are reversible” once more weaponry arrives. Not sure how we got here, these people are supposed to be top of the bracket, so to speak. Anyway…

In regard to young people coming to the front, while on the subject, as per the quote above. It was reported the other day that Ukraine is expecting to mobilize around 100,000 men in the 25-26 age group:

Mobilisation from age 25 could add about 100,000 young fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sources say

www.pravda.com.ua

The problem of such a plan is briefly discussed in the article itself:

Whether it will be possible to significantly rejuvenate the military through the mobilisation of 25–26-year-olds is a debatable question, especially considering the demographic situation in Ukraine.

Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences, said 416,349 boys were born in Ukraine in 1998–1999. They should now be 25–26 years old. Of course, not all of them will join the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some due to health conditions, others because they are abroad or in territories occupied by Russia.

My best guess is if they manage to mobilize that many, which I very much doubt, they will be taking more than a third (if not closer to a half) of the male population in that age group.

In regard to the drug addicts. I also read a few of Russian reports on the subject. I also took them as pure propaganda. And still do, for the most part. For the most and not entirely simply because I am sure these people get grabbed off the streets as one of the most vulnerable groups of society and are likely sent to the assault units where the expected rate of survival is very low, let’s call it that. On the other hand, I took the “gambling addiction” among the personnel stories as pure propaganda as well. Then, all of a sudden, they started introducing laws on controlling gambling outlets because of the addiction issue among the troops.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7189835

Zelenskyy restricts online casinos to curb troop gambling addictions

Some are skeptical a ban will work given the existence of illegal casinos.

www.politico.eu

So go figure.

In regard to the “media president who became the president of the country, but still lives in the media world”. The guy is a clown. It appears that more people are coming to this realization. Like I posted in one of my posts above, pretty much every Ukrainian source/blogger talks about his incompetence, even if they don’t say it in direct terms as I did. Even Deepstste that now officially works with the Ukrainian MoD talks about it here and there.

On the subject, he outdid, in my opinion, himself yesterday:

Is it America’s fault, we asked him, what’s happening now in Kharkiv?

“It’s the world’s fault,” he replied. “They gave the opportunity for Putin to occupy. But now the world can help."

'The world's fault': Zelenskyy speaks out amid Russian assault

ABC News had an exclusive interview with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday.

abcnews.go.com

You know what’s funny/frustrating/call it what you will? I have never yet heard anything along the lines “yes, it’s our fault”, “yes, we effed up”, “yes, we take responsibility”, “yes, the money was stolen and we don’t have the defences we advertised on Twitter”, “yes, decades of corruption and selling of everything we had for pennies on a dollar led us to where we are today”, “it is thanks to the Americans that we didn’t sell Motor Sich, basically the most valuable MIC asset we have, to the Chinese back in 2019”, and so on. Not once have I heard that something is the fault of Ukraine, but it sure is everyone else’s. The entire world, apparently. Gets tiring, then frustrating, then maddening. Anyway…

I came to post something else, but out of time now. But it was a good interview to post, in my opinion.

Here is a quick something for humour though. In “propaganda/anti-propaganda efforts”, haha, Russians are contradicting the Ukrainian and other reports about lack of fortifications. As evidence, they are providing a video of an FPV strike on a (allegedly) Ukrainian position, where we can see three rows of “dragon teeth” probably less than 50 meters in length and, maybe, a ditch, as well as a few disorganized piles of “dragon teeth” (that everyone laughed at in the winter and spring of 2023, when Russians were setting up their positions, I should mention).

Повёрнутые на войне

С некоторым недоумением читаю у многих блогеров, что мол под Волчанском или под Липцами хохлы не выстроили никакой линии обороны, разворовав все деньги и что мол поэтому мы так быстро прорвали фронт. Это совсем не так. Деньги хохлы конечно разворовали, но во-первых линия обороны есть и она...

t.me

While writing the part in brackets above, a thought hit me up. Remember that it took Ukrainians months to get to the Russian ditches and dragon teeth last summer/fall? More to the point, those fortifications, that many called their first line of defence at the time, weren’t built dozens of kilometres behind the front line either. But I digress.

Edit: one more thing that I just recalled from earlier today in regard to the “it’s world’s fault”:

Russia’s attack across the border north and north-west of Kharkiv was telegraphed by Moscow, predicted by western intelligence and anticipated by Ukraine. The fact that Russian forces have been able to advance about 4 miles at multiple points in five days raises serious questions about Kyiv’s ability to defend itself.

An intention to create “a sanitary zone” along the border inside Ukraine was signalled by Vladimir Putin in March. A month later Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, highlighted that Kharkiv had an “important role” in such a strategy as the region was reeling from bombing that had knocked out two power stations on 22 March.

At the same time, Moscow’s military had been building up its new Northern Group of forces, estimated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) at 30,000 strong, in Russia’s Belgorod region. Last week, two days before the dawn assault, Kharkiv’s regional governor said a massing of forces had been spotted.

A warning was also passed, one source added, from UK defence intelligence to Ukraine’s leadership. So when on 5am last Friday, somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers crossed the border at two key points, it might have been expected that the attack would be swiftly repulsed.

How Russia has advanced in Kharkiv despite warnings attack was coming | Ukraine | The Guardian

Shortage of munitions, fighters and air defences leaves Ukraine unprepared to repel attack

amp.theguardian.com

But hey, it is everyone’s fault’s, but.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

That is a good read, Feanor. Thanks. I don’t think most of what he said is something new. Some have been talked about in the media, some discussed here, some is easy to observe just by following what is happening.

I may be wrong, but in regard to Avdiivka, I believe he was saying that people have been sitting there for 8 years and no one took the intuitive to create secondary, tertiary, etc lines to fall to in case of a breech.

If you allow, I am going to make a correction to your translation in this part of the interview (corrected):



I believe this is another key that some people still don’t understand. Russians have superb engineering abilities that were acknowledged by probably by everyone except the most lazy commentators. It was also discussed here previously (I know I talked about it for sure). But some are still not convinced that this is the case. For example:

In interviews, American officials express confidence that many of these Russian gains are reversible once the spigot of new arms is fully opened, most likely sometime in July, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine finds ways to bring more — and younger — troops to the front lines.

White House Worries Russia’s Momentum Is Changing Trajectory of Ukraine War

Multiple factors are helping Russia’s military advance, including a delay in American weaponry and Moscow’s technological innovations on the battlefield.

www.nytimes.com

The article is from just a couple of days ago, but this is an ongoing thing. Personally, I am not sure whether people making the comments are that incompetent and believe it or they say it for the public consumption. While we have seen what happened in Zaporozhie, for example, isn’t necessarily obvious because Russians have been digging and fortifying and mining there for months, we have all seen what happened at the Bakhmut direction, for instance, during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. And what happened was very little. This is in spite of the fact that the counteroffensive began just two weeks after Russia took over the area.

It’s actually a pretty weird assumption (moreover, “confidence”) on its own, even without the knowledge that we posses from the recent past (and present), that the “gains are reversible” once more weaponry arrives. Not sure how we got here, these people are supposed to be top of the bracket, so to speak. Anyway…

In regard to young people coming to the front, while on the subject, as per the quote above. It was reported the other day that Ukraine is expecting to mobilize around 100,000 men in the 25-26 age group:

Mobilisation from age 25 could add about 100,000 young fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sources say

www.pravda.com.ua

The problem of such a plan is briefly discussed in the article itself:

Whether it will be possible to significantly rejuvenate the military through the mobilisation of 25–26-year-olds is a debatable question, especially considering the demographic situation in Ukraine.

Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences, said 416,349 boys were born in Ukraine in 1998–1999. They should now be 25–26 years old. Of course, not all of them will join the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some due to health conditions, others because they are abroad or in territories occupied by Russia.

My best guess is if they manage to mobilize that many, which I very much doubt, they will be taking more than a third (if not closer to a half) of the male population in that age group.

In regard to the drug addicts. I also read a few of Russian reports on the subject. I also took them as pure propaganda. And still do, for the most part. For the most and not entirely simply because I am sure these people get grabbed off the streets as one of the most vulnerable groups of society and are likely sent to the assault units where the expected rate of survival is very low, let’s call it that. On the other hand, I took the “gambling addiction” among the personnel stories as pure propaganda as well. Then, all of a sudden, they started introducing laws on controlling gambling outlets because of the addiction issue among the troops.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7189835

Zelenskyy restricts online casinos to curb troop gambling addictions

Some are skeptical a ban will work given the existence of illegal casinos.

www.politico.eu

So go figure.

In regard to the “media president who became the president of the country, but still lives in the media world”. The guy is a clown. It appears that more people are coming to this realization. Like I posted in one of my posts above, pretty much every Ukrainian source/blogger talks about his incompetence, even if they don’t say it in direct terms as I did. Even Deepstste that now officially works with the Ukrainian MoD talks about it here and there.

On the subject, he outdid, in my opinion, himself yesterday:

Is it America’s fault, we asked him, what’s happening now in Kharkiv?

“It’s the world’s fault,” he replied. “They gave the opportunity for Putin to occupy. But now the world can help."

'The world's fault': Zelenskyy speaks out amid Russian assault

ABC News had an exclusive interview with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday.

abcnews.go.com

You know what’s funny/frustrating/call it what you will? I have never yet heard anything along the lines “yes, it’s our fault”, “yes, we effed up”, “yes, we take responsibility”, “yes, the money was stolen and we don’t have the defences we advertised on Twitter”, “yes, decades of corruption and selling of everything we had for pennies on a dollar led us to where we are today”, “it is thanks to the Americans that we didn’t sell Motor Sich, basically the most valuable MIC asset we have, to the Chinese back in 2019”, and so on. Not once have I heard that something is the fault of Ukraine, but it sure is everyone else’s. The entire world, apparently. Gets tiring, then frustrating, then maddening. Anyway…

I came to post something else, but out of time now. But it was a good interview to post, in my opinion.

Here is a quick something for humour though. In “propaganda/anti-propaganda efforts”, haha, Russians are contradicting the Ukrainian and other reports about lack of fortifications. As evidence, they are providing a video of an FPV strike on a (allegedly) Ukrainian position, where we can see three rows of “dragon teeth” probably less than 50 meters in length and, maybe, a ditch, as well as a few disorganized piles of “dragon teeth” (that everyone laughed at in the winter and spring of 2023, when Russians were setting up their positions, I should mention).

Повёрнутые на войне

С некоторым недоумением читаю у многих блогеров, что мол под Волчанском или под Липцами хохлы не выстроили никакой линии обороны, разворовав все деньги и что мол поэтому мы так быстро прорвали фронт. Это совсем не так. Деньги хохлы конечно разворовали, но во-первых линия обороны есть и она...

t.me

While writing the part in brackets above, a thought hit me up. Remember that it took Ukrainians months to get to the Russian ditches and dragon teeth last summer/fall? More to the point, those fortifications, that many called their first line of defence at the time, weren’t built dozens of kilometres behind the front line either. But I digress.

Edit: one more thing that I just recalled from earlier today in regard to the “it’s world’s fault”:

Russia’s attack across the border north and north-west of Kharkiv was telegraphed by Moscow, predicted by western intelligence and anticipated by Ukraine. The fact that Russian forces have been able to advance about 4 miles at multiple points in five days raises serious questions about Kyiv’s ability to defend itself.

An intention to create “a sanitary zone” along the border inside Ukraine was signalled by Vladimir Putin in March. A month later Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, highlighted that Kharkiv had an “important role” in such a strategy as the region was reeling from bombing that had knocked out two power stations on 22 March.

At the same time, Moscow’s military had been building up its new Northern Group of forces, estimated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) at 30,000 strong, in Russia’s Belgorod region. Last week, two days before the dawn assault, Kharkiv’s regional governor said a massing of forces had been spotted.

A warning was also passed, one source added, from UK defence intelligence to Ukraine’s leadership. So when on 5am last Friday, somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers crossed the border at two key points, it might have been expected that the attack would be swiftly repulsed.

How Russia has advanced in Kharkiv despite warnings attack was coming | Ukraine | The Guardian

Shortage of munitions, fighters and air defences leaves Ukraine unprepared to repel attack

amp.theguardian.com

But hey, it is everyone’s fault’s, but.

Well, we can expect Zelensky will say such things, after all, he is a politician.

 

[Feanor]

Quick update. Russian forces have reached Liptsi from the north-east, and have entered the Liptsi summer cootages from the north. Near Volchansk Russia has taken Staritsy, and is continuing to advance inside Volchansk, north of the river. Russian forces are clearing the downtown area, and have taken the north-eastern outskirts. Approximately 20% of the city are under Russian control, but the part they're holding and contesting is the most densely built up area. The are large spread out suburbs to the south of the river. No major movements in other areas so far, just some regular minor advances.

Correction, Staritsy remain contested, but now Zybino have also been contested, east of Volchansk. Russia continues to advance inside the town.

 

[KipPotapych]

Well, we can expect Zelensky will say such things, after all, he is a politician.

I can’t agree. Sure, all politicians lie, but this is quite different. In this particular case, this delusional clown is telling me, whose tax dollars are used to provide aid to his country, that it is my fault these very dollars are being stolen by his subordinates. If this isn’t maddening, not sure what is. This would be a very short version.

 

[Fredled]

Here is an interview of an Ukrainian military surgeon. He constantly say that he won't talk about numbers. Nevertheless, at the end of the interview, you can come up with a good idea of the proportions.
Of course, if you expect gloom and doom stories, this is not for you. He gives a relatively positive note. Albeit you also understand how bad Ukrainian casualities were and the level of medical personel shortage.
Surprisingly, he says that there were never any shortage in medical supply. (Maybe because humanitarian aid is the easiest aid you can get?)

Warning: Surgery picture.
________________________________

In regard to the “media president who became the president of the country, but still lives in the media world”. The guy is a clown. It appears that more people are coming to this realization.
....
You know what’s funny/frustrating/call it what you will? I have never yet heard anything along the lines “yes, it’s our fault”, “yes, we effed up”, “yes, we take responsibility”, “yes, the money was stolen and we don’t have the defences we advertised on Twitter”, “yes, decades of corruption and selling of everything we had for pennies on a dollar led us to where we are today”,
....

When he was elected, I said: "A country doesn't need a comedian as president. It needs an actor."
Zelensky, as a stage man, is not qualified neither for being president nor for for being the Supreme Commander in Chief. And he is not the best placed one to fight against corruption. Fortunately, in this war, it's not too relevant. It's not him who take the most important decisions regarding the defence of the country. Else everything would have collapsed long ago.

Yes, all the mistakes and corruption you mentioned exist in Ukraine. But Zelensky, while being part of it, at least until the full scale invasion, shouldn't be the scapegoat to the systemic failures of the Ukrainian society.

it’s world’s fault

As President of his country and given the dangers, he can't tell "yes, we failed and Russians are winning because we are supid and corrupt" or other depressing comments. His role, as Actor in Chief, is to say something positive, never mind the reality.
Ukrainians know the corruption problems in their country anyway. And when they don't know, they imagine it. In the interview posted by Feonor, it's said that young potential recruits don't trust the commanders, don't trust the competence of military officers, and of course, don't trust politicians. Why those who are fighting are around 50 today? Because, IMO, that's the generation which benefited from the state, whereas the younger ones didn't.

....As evidence, they are providing a video of an FPV strike on a (allegedly) Ukrainian position, where we can see three rows of “dragon teeth” probably less than 50 meters in length and, maybe, a ditch, as well as a few disorganized piles of “dragon teeth” (that everyone laughed at in the winter and spring of 2023, when Russians were setting up their positions, I should mention)....

Thre reason why Ukrainian defence line structure were no match with the Surovikin's line, is the lack of mine field and artillery barrage on the Ukrainian side.

Dragon teeth and anti-tank trenches can slow down the armour advance for a few hours, one day, at best. You can blow them out in ten minutes, then cross as if there were nothing. I'm not minimizing Russians' superb engineering abilities that were acknowledged by everyone. When the Russian leadership wants to get things done, they get things done. Period. Just see the reconstruction of Mariupol. I'm the first to acknowledge that. But that was not the main reason for the 2023 failure.

In the Counter-Offensive, Ukrainians stumbled upon mine field, again and again. They have never seen or imagined so many mines. At the same time, Russians had enough ammunitions to shell demining, and engineering teams 24h/day. That's what stopped them. Ukrainians didn't have anything even remotely equivalent when they had to stop Russians north of Karkiv or in Avdiivka.

Why Ukrainians didn't have enough shells for a barrage? Part of the answer is given by Zelensky: Russian allies delivered what they promised (thought extremely poor quality, as the other fool said "quantity is a quality in itself") while Ukraine foreign partners didn't.
Zelensky is very clever in not singling out the US for they six month delay since Europe is also to blame for delays at least as bad.

Why Ukrainians didn't lay more land mines? I haven't read or hear any answer to this question but we can speculate.
They should have had the time to lay them since the attack was foreseen two weeks in advance, if not more.
Then, maybe, they didn't have enough mines. It's possible because you can more easily ask foreign donors for SAM against missiles killing civilians than anti-personel mines which are under ban by a convention of a number of countries. It wouldn't not be good advertising neither to ask for them nor to deliver them. (I think they recieved Claymore mines from the US but I'm not sure...) That's perhaps the only thing they can't get in big quantities from abroad.
The third reason is a political decision not to lay mines because it's a danger for the population. But that doesn't make much sens in this case.

gains are reversible once more weaponry arrives

Again, in the current context, it doesn't seem credible. In fact, if enough powerful weapons do realy arrive and arrive on time the course of war can be reversed.

The problem is that there is two problems. First, the weapons and ammos should be available in big quantities. The quantities are not enough to reverse the clock. You won't defeat the Red Army with only a dozen of ATACMS.
Second problem is that Ukraine don't have enough qualified personel to operate the high tech weapons. that's why the official dispatching of US, French, Estonian and other instructors in Ukraine is more and more in the talks.

In regard to the drug addicts. I also read a few of Russian reports on the subject. I also took them as pure propaganda.

Propaganda, sure. Pure? Maybe not. What happened, IMO, is that they noticed a few seringes and 4 or 5 drug addicts among the POWs and form that, started to build stories that half of the Ukrainian army was on dope and hopeless.
Gambling may be a more serious issue.

 

[koxinga]

As President of his country and given the dangers, he can't tell "yes, we failed and Russians are winning because we are supid and corrupt" or other depressing comments. His role, as Actor in Chief, is to say something positive, never mind the reality.

Sure, but is his statements to BBC "positive"? Pleading or lobbying for assistance is to be expected, but fingerpointing and assigning blame to guilt trip Western countries into providing aid is crude.

Maybe it is a case of "whatever it takes" in his mind but this behavior of his has been called out more than once.

 

[KipPotapych]

Of course, if you expect gloom and doom stories, this is not for you. He gives a relatively positive note.

That’s because it is Ukrinform, haha.

Seriously though. A couple of things here just from the surface, without “scratching” deeper. I am not going to discuss the lack of medical equipment and supplies in detail simply because he said that they use PVC pipe purchased from hardware store for drainage in “exceptional situations”, among other things. He also said that there was no interruption of medical supplies and then adds “never”. That’s a classic example of a hyperbole, so in all likelihood it isn’t true. Note that he also volunteers information/comparison about the washed bandages “like in the Second World War” and that it never happened.

Furthermore, he said that there were hundreds his hospital (it say “you”, but I am going to assume “you” as in the entire hospital) operated on every day, sometimes three hundred. Lets take the average of his hundreds and say 200 surgeries per day. This would be 7 minutes multiplied by the number of surgeons (we are going to forget the nurses, anesthesiologists, etc, he also talks about that are required for every surgery) they have on duty; the result would be the time spent on one surgery every day. If you have any knowledge of how things work in the medical world, you would realize that this is nonsense. I don’t believe you have to be a medical professional to figure this one out.

He also says that the survival rate at his hospital is 99.99%. Well, first of all, this survival rate is unheard of in any front line hospital. Second of all, keep in mind the paragraph above this one with hundreds of surgeries. Here we can assume a couple of things as far as his quoted survival rate is concerned. First is he is probably lying. Second, if he is not lying, the unusually high survival rate indicates that the absolute majority of wounded passed away before receiving medical care or, at the very least, before they were admitted to his hospital. Here is something about the survival rates in front line hospitals:

The Services’ medical departments repeatedly cite the reduction of case fatality rates to historically low levels as a major medical accomplishment during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. While seemingly positive, this statistic tells only part of the story. The case fatality rate, or the percentage of those injured who died, reflects multiple factors including weapons and tactics, protective equipment, and medical care.5 In other words, current data equally support the conclusion that the enemy’s lack of regular combat units, artillery, and armor (the major casualty producers in conventional warfare) and reliance instead on improvised explosive devices is plausibly just as responsible.[…]

Another problematic statistic is the “died-of-wounds” (DOW) rate, or the percentage of those reaching medical care who later die. Remarkably, recent DOW rates exceed those of World War II and the Vietnam era.6 While startling, this does not necessarily reflect a decline in care. As evacuation becomes faster and prehospital care improves, the DOW rates will go up as more mortally injured casualties will reach the hospital alive. Conversely, if evacuation is delayed or medic care is poor, more will die in the field and reduce the DOW rate.[…]

Another statistic that distorts the overall effectiveness of combat casualty care is the hospital survival rate. Surgical care in combat hospitals and care in the subsequent evacuation chain back to the United States have advanced to such a degree that 98 percent of casualties making it there alive will go on to survive their wounds. By definition, it does not capture those with potentially survivable injuries who died in the field or died during prehospital evacuation. In other words, it does not speak to all of the casualties who succumb prior to hospitalization.[…]

From here:

Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ) | NDU Press

Another statement he made that cast a great deal of doubt on the entire interview is the following:

We have information, although I am uncertain whether it’s true or verified, that two Russian tanks simply shot them at close range.

So he basically talks about rumours and speculations.

Last thing to address in this interview:

I estimate that our service members are aged at between 45-50 on average, and now it will probably be 50+.

Well, let’s just hope that this is another unreasonable statement he made.

I apologize that this is a little more gloomy than the interview suggests. Here is another quote from a Ukrainian medical professional to a western publication, but he likely read the articles of the likes I cited above:

The doctor added: “We save 98% of our patients.”

‘We save 98% of our patients’: inside a frontline Ukrainian field hospital | Ukraine | The Guardian

Medics work in makeshift conditions, even while targeted by Russian bombs, to stabilise patients before they can be taken to hospitals

amp.theguardian.com

The first sentence in this post was meant as a joke, but it really isn’t.

I will reply to the other parts of your post later.

 

[Fredled]

@KipPotapych Why do you assume that everything being said is false? Systematically?

Of course the 0.01% of mortality rate is not credible.
As your source suggest, patients who arrive at his hospital were already saved from life threatening condition in field hospital ot before evacuation and those whose life were still in danger were moved to another hospital in a big city. He doesn't count those who died before and after, only those transiting.
Another explanation is that he counts all the patients, not all those who underwent a chirurgical operation. The rate of survival may include those who came just for a scratch.

The 200 or 300 number of seriously wounded operated or requiring an operation in a single day is, IMO, credible. They couldn't properly care of all them, obviously. But that's the challenge of war.
_______________________

About Ukrinform and Ukrainian medias:

Ukrinform report on Russian casualties on the daily table don't match what they report in other articles about the events at the front.
Here is one example: Today's table shows 1210 Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the past day.
In another article, summarising the fights on that day, they say that Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the Kharkiv sector amount to only 133. A relatively small number given the intensity. It's not clear whether the Kharkiv Sector includes Vovchansk or not. But let's assume it is.

It means that if the table was accurate, there should be 8x the same amounts on other parts of the front. It's not impossible, but unlikely. IMO, it's rather 4 of 5 times than 8 times. The table probably inflates the numbers by a factor of 2, roughly speaking.
In the past days, they reported 1400, 1500, 1700, 1500, before reporting 1200 today. These were absolute records probably higher than reality by an even higher factor. I have noticed such inconsistencies several times.

The reported number of destroyed vehicles and equipment is, however, more in line with other reports.

 

[KipPotapych]

@KipPotapych Why do you assume that everything being said is false? Systematically?

Experience taught me, lol. Seriously though, I actually do not. I even give the benefit of the doubt more often than not. But when things don’t make sense, they have to be scrutinized because it is important to have the best information in order to form an educated opinion and have a reasonable discussion.

Part of the answer in this case:

Of course the 0.01% of mortality rate is not credible

The 200 or 300 number of seriously wounded operated or requiring an operation in a single day is, IMO, credible.

It certainly could be. Some of the bigger and most advanced hospitals in the US do it in normal life circumstances.

Consider the following as an example. Recently, we experienced a pandemic that was overwhelming healthcare facilities around the world. The governing authorities had to apply restrictions on our daily lives because our healthcare systems are not built to manage such high inflow of patients. Mortality rates skyrocketed around the world. One of the reasons was the lack of hospital space and supplies and equipment, as well as medical personnel being unable to care for every patient in a manner they would on an average day in normal life circumstances. Triage procedures were implemented. People died that would not have otherwise. This is factual and fairly well documented. If you happened to know people working in the medical profession, you may even have better understanding and greater details and hardships that these people experienced. Of course, none of it happened in North Korea, for example, because they miraculously managed to avoid the disease altogether and their official stats are immaculate.

Then consider this hospital on the front line somewhere in Ukraine. While the hostilities began when the pandemic was still ongoing, they had an additional immense amount of people to care for. The guy himself mentions triage (that word is greatly associated with increased and otherwise unnecessary mortality, by definition). Yet, like North Korea, they managed to perform miracles and reported similar or better mortality rates. They also managed to never have any shortage of meds and supplies, an occasional drainage PVC pipe from a hardware store aside. The most advanced nations are nowhere near achieving similar results, even in circumstances that don’t involve a pandemic; the intensity of fighting is not nearly comparable; the means of war, that include the greatest amount of artillery the world has seen in a long time, among other factors (I left the reference to this factor in my citation on purpose).

That’s just for perspective.

They couldn't properly care of all them, obviously. But that's the challenge of war.

Back to the credibility of his statements. And it seems to me that you are answering the very questions you had asked.

I am still to reply to your previous post and going to address it there, but in short - I don’t care for positive messaging and strictly prefer reality and cold hard facts whenever possible.

About Ukrinform and Ukrainian medias:

Ukrinform report on Russian casualties on the daily table don't match what they report in other articles about the events at the front.
Here is one example: Today's table shows 1210 Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the past day.
In another article, summarising the fights on that day, they say that Russian soldiers killed or wounded in the Kharkiv sector amount to only 133. A relatively small number given the intensity. It's not clear whether the Kharkiv Sector includes Vovchansk or not. But let's assume it is.

It means that if the table was accurate, there should be 8x the same amounts on other parts of the front. It's not impossible, but unlikely. IMO, it's rather 4 of 5 times than 8 times. The table probably inflates the numbers by a factor of 2, roughly speaking.
In the past days, they reported 1400, 1500, 1700, 1500, before reporting 1200 today. These were absolute records probably higher than reality by an even higher factor. I have noticed such inconsistencies several times.

The reported number of destroyed vehicles and equipment is, however, more in line with other reports.

I am not sure what is so confusing and it was addressed numerous times prior and in great detail. In short, they literally report the numbers provided by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. I think that should give you the definitive answer whether these numbers are reliable. There are inconsistencies because these are numbers are made up (without even a sufficient thought put into it).

I already showed you that the number of destroyed vehicles and equipment is not in line with other reports. It’s total rubbish. Your link shows 92 tanks, AFVs, and artillery pieces destroyed in the past 24 hours. Plus 65 other “vehicles and fuel tankers”, among other things. If you think this is credible, I am not sure what else to say here, Fred. I guess we have a pretty different view and understanding of what is going on.

 

[KipPotapych]

Part 1 of 2:

When he was elected, I said: "A country doesn't need a comedian as president. It needs an actor."

When he was elected, I foolishly believed, as I am sure did many others who followed (surely people in Ukraine did, as was evident from the election results), that he would pursue what he promised and make a great difference for the betterment of the country. I was mistaken and he turned out to be an actor: he was acting, but in the sense of pretending, not in the sense of getting things done. Surely people in Ukraine thought so as well, as was evident from the polls before the invasion. He had an opportunity to unify the country, alienate the extremes, but that didn’t happen and he alienated a great deal of people. For the most part, he didn’t do a thing he promised to do in his campaign. Some of the things he promised to do, he actually did the complete opposite. The country was falling apart, literally. They didn’t need an actor. They needed someone who could deliver, not yet again disappoint. He turned out to be weak and a failure. Look where they are now. Post invasion, sure, he may have earned an Oscar in the first year and a little bit. It’s all downhill from there though.

Zelensky, as a stage man, is not qualified neither for being president nor for for being the Supreme Commander in Chief.

We agree here.

And he is not the best placed one to fight against corruption. Fortunately, in this war, it's not too relevant.

Not sure if you are writing it with a straight face. The money for fortifications were “appropriated”, it is pretty clear now. The ministry of defense corruption exposed earlier by a Ukrainian reporter (see my citation a few posts ago regarding current hardships of journalists in Ukraine) where the prices charged to military were at least threefold (much higher in some cases) the market rate, in a country in the middle of war living purely off “handouts” from the developed world. The corruption in recruitment centres that allowed thousands to leave the country and many more to avoid the service. And so on. The list is very long for a single post. These things have directly affected the situation on the battlefield and every single one of them makes corruption issue more relevant than it ever was.

Over 60% of the population says that corruption has gotten worse over the past year. Three quarters say that this is their number two concern, war is number one.

Бізнес та населення вважають, що корупція за останній рік зросла та вказують, хто її має подолати

zn.ua

Zelensky, in the meantime, tells the journalists not to report on the subject until the war is over:

Юлия Мостовая: Зеленский не под запись просил журналистов молчать о коррупции до победы

После выхода журналистского расследования о завышенных ценах на продукты для Минобороны (яйца по 17 грн за штуку) президент Владимир Зеленский непублично призвал известные медиа временно не продвигать тему коррупции. Об этом на конференции National Media Talk 2023, проходившей в Киеве...

nv.ua

It's not him who take the most important decisions regarding the defence of the country. Else everything would have collapsed long ago.

Are you certain about it? I am not. And things are collapsing, albeit slowly. “No one believes in victory as I do” (c) Zelensky.

Yes, all the mistakes and corruption you mentioned exist in Ukraine. But Zelensky, while being part of it, at least until the full scale invasion, shouldn't be the scapegoat to the systemic failures of the Ukrainian society.

He is a part of it now and he is the face of the country with “big problems”. He doesn’t need to be a scapegoat. He needs to be accountable and recognize that issues exist. He sure as hell doesn’t need to tell me that it is our fault, and pardon me that I take it personally.

As President of his country and given the dangers, he can't tell "yes, we failed and Russians are winning because we are supid and corrupt" or other depressing comments. His role, as Actor in Chief, is to say something positive, never mind the reality.

So, in other words, him telling me and everyone else that it is the “world’s fault” they are in the situation they are in is saying something positive? I beg to disagree and quite strongly.

Here is the thing and reality. No one owes anything to Ukraine. Sure, one can argue that those who signed under the Budapest Memorandum may, but it isn’t likely the case given how everything played out. Not me specifically or Canada in general, not the United States of America, not Germany, not Lithuania, etc. No one. In spite of what some believe, they are also not fighting for Europe and the Free World, not for saving the American and other NATO troops from having to fight Russia. This is rubbish and a fairy tale (unless we make it happen, I guess). Everything they receive is “goodwill” (and often poor strategic planning, which is a huge part of it, but it is beyond the topic of this discussion, I think?), including military, humanitarian and financial aid. We feel this should not be happening and are righteous, and fairly so, so we provide aid. For whatever reason, some (many) have confused it with obligations that do not exist. Then, the number one (Zelensky) tells me it is our fault they are where they are today, while the number two (Ermak) tells me that my country needs to allocate 0.25% of its GDP for military aid to Ukraine. That is some pretty crazy stuff, isn’t it?

Yes, I understand the consequences of Russia “winning” in Ukraine, and understand it better than an average person. The stakes are high, but not as high as some may make you believe and definitely not as high as can be. Remember, two years and four months ago we were ready to hand the entire Ukraine to Russia? We then felt the weakness and blood and decided to raise the stakes. Fairly so, though one could argue. We’ve been rising them ever since. And guess what, we also turned out be way less than we thought we were. As a result, we doubled down.

The point is, he doesn’t need to offend my intelligence and provide me with what he thinks are “good vibes”, over and over again. Moreover, neither him nor his representatives need to express complete disrespect to any single person. This “world’s fault” thing is one of those things. No idea how Melnyk could get away with calling Scholz a “liver sausage”. And so on. Again, the list is very long.

Counteroffensive failed - west’s fault; no fortifications - west’s fault; no weapons - west’s fault; can’t pay pensions - west’s fault; is there anything that isn’t someone else’s fault?

Positivity for the internal consumption? Personally, I couldn’t care less - the higher they fly, the harder they fall. Here is another example, of positive messaging