The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have reportedly re-entered Urozhaynoe from the south.


Two Russian armored Urals in anti-drone cages knocked out in the Rabotino salient.


A Russian T-90A stripped of all usable components in Zaporozhye region. I'm assuming it's a captured vehicle, since if it was in Russian hands the hull would be getting sent for refitting.


Border area.

Russian Forpost-RU UAV striking a Ukrainian checkpoint in Kharkov region. After a series of Russian SEAD strikes in the area it seems Ukrainian air defenses have been thinned out enough for Russia to be able to operate these.


Russia hit Ukrainian buildings in Belopol'ye, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Russia hitting a P-18 in Sumy region.


In Kharov region Russia struck either an IRIS-T or a decoy. I'm leaning towards the latter since the radar isn't turning and we don't see any secondary explosions from the munitions.


Russia has formed a new grouping, called North, that unifies command in the border areas for the war effort. It supposedly contains forces deployed to Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions.


Russian farm equipment is being equipped with anti-UAV netting in border areas. This is indirect evidence that Ukraine is targetting civilian vehicles with UAVs.


In Kursk region Russians sources are reporting Ukraine striking a gas services vehicle, with no casualties, and a civilian car killing the adult driver and two children. If the strikes are intentional the latter are likely warcrimes.


In Belgorod region Ukrainian forces struck a milk truck. Presumably they took it for a fuel truck.


Ukrainian fortifications being built in Kharkov region, near the border.


Strikes.

In Kiev Russia hit the Tripol'skaya powerplant, and fragments of the new Kh-69 missiles were found.


Russian strikes on Kharkov are now apparently aimed at power grid substations, causing repeated blackouts.


Ukrainian S-125 Neva SAMs in Odessa region, likely a Polish donation.


In Odessa region Russia hit a bridge between Chernomorsk and Aleksandrovka. This is the third strike on this bridge, and the damage seems substantial, but the bridge isn't destroyed.


Russia hit a Ukrainian S-300 positions near Chernomorsk, Odessa region. Again I suspect the strikes against bridges and other targets forced the SAM to reveal itself.


Based on recent obituaries, it appears Russia hit Ukraine's 151st training center in Odessa.


In all the strikes on Odessa region, substations were also hit, causing blackouts.


Russian struck a factory in Sumy, that was allegedly involved in UAV production.


Russia hit Akhtyrka, Sumy region, where 32 D-20 howitzers or decoys were massed at a single location. They mostly appear to be destroyed.


Russia reportedly hit a gas storage facility near Striya, L'vov region, using Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and Kh-101s. They also hit a powerplant in the Dobrotvor area, L'vov region.


Russia hit the Krankomplekt factory in Zaporozhye, allegedly it was involved in UAV production.


Russia hit Poltava, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Russia hit a fuel storage facility in Zhitomir region.


Ukraine hit Tokmak, a Ukrainian city in the Russian-occupied part of Zaporozhye region. Reportedly 16 civilians are dead, 20 wounded. Target is unclear.


Ukraine hit a Russian military training facility in Borisoglebsk with a UAV. Despite initial reports claiming damage to the front of the building, we can see from satellite imagery that a section of the building has collapsed. We have no information on casualties so far other then a Russian denial of any casualties.


Russian sources report that Ukraine double-tapped Gorlovka, hitting a firetruck.


In the Petrovskiy district of Donetsk Ukraine apparently used a copter to drop a munition on a public bus. 1 civilian WIA is reported.


Ukraine's Minister of Energy is telling the population to stock up on powerbanks and generators.


Allegedly this Russian ship-based Pantsyr shot down a Storm Shadow.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

Russia striking a THeMIS unmanned platform with an FPV drone.


Russia lost an Mi-24 off the coast of Crimea, allegedly due to technical reasons. No footage so far, but Russian sources are confirming the loss, including the famous Fighterbomber.


Ukrainian Su-27 dropping a Hammer bomb, this is our first evidence of something other then a MiG-29 carrying them.


There is a new pattern of Russian FPV drones intercepting Ukrainian UAVs. Presumably this is driven by Russia having more UAVs then Ukraine.


A Russian Pantsyr-S1 with anti-drone netting. The chassis for the Pantsyr is armored, though it doesn't look it. But the armor isn't very strong, and doesn't protect things like the radar for obvious reasons.


Russian MT-LB with the 6MB turret, same as the BMP-1AM and BTR-82A. It's a simple and sensible upgrade. I'm not sure why we're not seeing more of them where MT-LBs are being used as assault vehicles.


A Russian BTR-82A with two sets of anti-drone screens, one for the front, and one for the back.


A Russian MT-LB carrying a depth-charge launcher as an improvised MLRS. Not clear if the same as we've seen before.


Russian Kamaz truck being fitted with armor, from NPO SpetsMash.


Russian EOD using Patrul'-IV armored truck. It appears similar to a Z-STS, but is to the best of my knowledge an unrelated design.


A Russian Mi-28NM with Vikhr-1 ATGMs. The question of the optics remains, since the optics on the Ka-52 are a key part of the success. Notably, the helos is definitely an upgraded Mi-28NM but it has no radar ball over the rotor.


Ukrainian M113AS4 getting anti-drone screens.


Ukraine's 38th MarBde with their newly delievered M109L, possibly from Italy.


Ukrainian FV103 Spartan with anti-drone screens. It's allegedly part of the 24th Mech Bde, and it's carrying an M2 .50 cal in an RCWS.


A rare Ukrainian HEMTT M978 fuel truck.


Russia has convicted a deserter to 8 years in prison in line with a new law that allows up to 10 years of a sentence for desertion. This is in stark contrast to '22-'23 when service members were often able to refuse to go into combat, and resign from their military service with relatively few consequences.


An interesting photo of African soldiers in Russian service.


An interesting statement from a Ukrainian soldier from the 3rd Brigade, the infamous Azov. He's convinced locals in frontline areas are reporting their locations to Russia, to enable strikes. If true it might offer a different reasons for the recent decision to evacuate areas near the Russian border.


Germany will reportedly hand over another Patriot battery to Ukraine. This comes right after announcements of Germany being out of Patriot missiles to send to Ukraine. They will also reportedly hand over another batch of 20 Marders.


In Moscow the car of Vasiliy Prozorov, a Ukrainian SBU defector, was blown up. He is however alive.


A famous foreign volunteer, Russel Bently, who fought for the DNR in the '14 campaign, is now missing somewhere in Donetsk region. He retired from military service in the US Army, then served in the DNR People's Militia, and later became a youtuber, uploading many video of pro-DNR content to a channel called Donbas with Texas. He had decided to remain in the DNR, had gotten married to a local woman, and english teacher, and has been living in the area for about a decade. Personally I hope he turns up ok, I've watched quite a few of his videos myself.


Russia is going ahead with construction projects in Kherson region. Investment in newly annexed areas, both in terms of rebuilding destroyed objects, and building new ones, helps tie the remaining population to Russia.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
In Kharov region Russia struck either an IRIS-T or a decoy. I'm leaning towards the latter since the radar isn't turning and we don't see any secondary explosions from the munitions.

This one is a little weird, indeed. When I saw it the first time, I was convinced it was a decoy for the very reasons you mentioned (and it just looks off, imo). Then, the Ukrainian sources confirmed that the radar was destroyed - I posted one of them above. I also said that the evidence of the launcher being destroyed as well was pretty convincing - there was no direct hit, as visible on the video, resulting in no secondary explosion, but it was close enough to conclude that the damage to the unit must have been significant at the very least (provided it was not a decoy). I am also wondering, if it was in fact a decoy, would it remain that intact after the strike? Regardless, I do agree, there is something off about this one.

Russia hit Akhtyrka, Sumy region, where 32 D-20 howitzers or decoys were massed at a single location. They mostly appear to be destroyed.

I don’t believe these were decoys. It was suggested that those have been sitting there since at least 2017 (sat photos provided and supposedly one can find it on the Google maps as well). Sorry, Twitter, but what you see is all there is to it, really:


It was also proposed that these were scrap metal because the Russians did not take possession when they controlled the area. I do not find it very convincing because, for the most part, when the Russians controlled the area, there was no shortage of anything - definitely not of artillery, anyway. Also, the retreat from the area was rather sudden and fast moving.

Then, it was further suggested (and supported with sat images) that the number of units went down from 43 to 32 at some point before the strike.


It seems that these were, in fact, near scrap but may have been cannibalized for parts. Or maybe they were used as decoys? Regardless, it seems like an overly expensive hit for the Russians, unless they knew something we don’t. There have been a great number of strange things over the past couple of years and this strike appears to be one from that list.

I would also think that if these were of use, the Ukrainians would have used them by now because they don’t have the luxury of choice. Yet, we are back at the great number of strange things, lol.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
In Kursk region Russians sources are reporting Ukraine striking a gas services vehicle, with no casualties, and a civilian car killing the adult driver and two children. If the strikes are intentional the latter are likely warcrimes.
My theory is that when a drone doesn't find the initial target and runs out of juice, the operator has the instruction to hit any other vehicle he can find. No matter who is inside.
I don't think that they have enough drones and drone pilots to use in non-sensical operations. Yet, better than doing nothing, when they can't find the target, they use it to terrorize the locals.
Their justification is to show Russians how their Special Military Operation looks like for Ukrainians.
They have made official comments in this sens in the past.

Feanor said:
An interesting statement from a Ukrainian soldier from the 3rd Brigade, the infamous Azov. He's convinced locals in frontline areas are reporting their locations to Russia, to enable strikes. If true it might offer a different reasons for the recent decision to evacuate areas near the Russian border.
I'm sure they evacuate them partly for this reason. There is an understanding among the Ukrainian soldiers at the front, that civilians who stubbornly decide to stay despite several warnings and orders to leave the area are at least pro-Russians. Some of them even told them clearly that they were waiting for the Russians.
Whether some of them spy for the Russians or not, they suspect that they could and won't take the risk.

The other reason (other than getting civilians out of a zone of danger) is that by their presence, they will disturb the work of the soldiers. Soldiers can be distracted by these civilians at critical moments. They would naturally care for the safety of the civilians (not all of them are animals), but that would add a burden on them.

Ananda said:
The attack on Ukrainian warehouses in Odessa, claiming being done by Pro Russian partisan. Whether this is Russian forces infiltrate Ukrainian line, or real Pro Russian partisan, will be open to debate.
The word Partisant hides the specificity of the role of these persons. You have spies, who live in the area and try to pass for pro-Ukrainians while working for the Russians (or vice-versa). And you have saboteur groups who cross the front line for hit and run operations. Then come back to their side.

Partisant would suggest that, organised armed groups are operating on a permanent basis on the territory of the enemy.
I don't think that such group exists on either side. Thought I'm not sure about Crimea. But even if there are some in Crimea, their number is not significant.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Hangar Returns. The story of the self-propelled hangar continues. It's been upgraded with a corrugated roofing material and has gotten a new EW antenna. Allegedly it's back in action, presumably still around Krasnogorovka where Russia has greatly expanded their foothold recently.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
In Kursk region Russians sources are reporting Ukraine striking a gas services vehicle, with no casualties, and a civilian car killing the adult driver and two children. If the strikes are intentional the latter are likely war crimes.
I have been increasingly worried about this type of events occurring more frequently.

Looking at the wreckage, the vehicle was some kind of mini van (I think Soviet made). I think that they target utility vehicles. But they should have better rules of engagement, like trying to identify passengers before striking.

I hope that it was a mistake, in the sens that they thought that this vehicle was used by the military or by the government or, at least, by a private company in a professional activity, that they didn't know that there were kids on board.
Because if they did that by pure vengeance or for the sake of terror, it's not only criminal and stupid, it will be also the cause of their demise.

KipPotapych said:
I doubt there will be any tribunals once this is over though. Nothing of substance anyway.
It's too early to say. One thing I noticed is that serious crimes almost always end up being known. Of course, we never heard of the crimes that are not known, but there are many occurrences in recent history when crimes that could have been hidden were finally unveiled. People know what happens and somebody always talks. Because it's human.

If we want a tribunal for the war crimes committed by Ukrainians (possibly since 2013), we should first and foremost have a tribunal for the Russian war crimes, in which the Russian government voluntary participates.
This means that only after a regime change in Russia, and when Russia herself arrests, condemns and eventually deports to The Hague their own war criminals, or at least judge them in absentia or posthumously, one could think of doing the same with Ukraine and justice be given for both sides.

This is of course not thinkable in a foreseeable future.
Russia is not the kind of nation ready to condemn their own leaders, no matter what they do.
But history has time. The world just condemned the Armenian Genocide recently, after 100 years. A similar time frame, when delays are counted in decades, not in years, could be applied in this case.
_______________________

Interesting tidbit:
Russia preparing to redeploy Wagner fighters from Africa Corps to Belgorod region

It means that the incursions of the Ukrainians / Free Russian Legions is more effective than we think. If Russia has to weaken their contingent in Africa to protect this area, it has un expected international consequences!
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Some stuff from the bizarre section (via Google translate from Ukrainian):

In cooperation with German colleagues, Ukrainian law enforcement officers managed to establish 161 Ukrainian child kidnapped by Russia on the territory of Germany.

The head of the National Police of Ukraine Ivan Vygivskyi said this during a meeting in Berlin with the President of the Federal Criminal Police Department of Germany Holger Muench, Ukrinform correspondent reports.

"Thanks to our cooperation with the law enforcement agencies of Germany in the direction of documenting war crimes of the Russian Federation, namely the deportation and forced displacement of Ukrainian children, the location in Germany of 161 Ukrainian children who were wanted as forcibly displaced to temporarily occupied territories or deported to the Russian Federation and Belarus was established," Vyhivsky informed.



I am struggling to find a response better than

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have been increasingly worried about this type of events occurring more frequently.

Looking at the wreckage, the vehicle was some kind of mini van (I think Soviet made). I think that they target utility vehicles. But they should have better rules of engagement, like trying to identify passengers before striking.

I hope that it was a mistake, in the sens that they thought that this vehicle was used by the military or by the government or, at least, by a private company in a professional activity, that they didn't know that there were kids on board.
Because if they did that by pure vengeance or for the sake of terror, it's not only criminal and stupid, it will be also the cause of their demise.
I think the "Bukhanka" or "loaf" van is the gas service vehicle. There were two vehicles attacked. One was a civilian car, I don't have footage of that one.

Interesting tidbit:
Russia preparing to redeploy Wagner fighters from Africa Corps to Belgorod region

It means that the incursions of the Ukrainians / Free Russian Legions is more effective than we think. If Russia has to weaken their contingent in Africa to protect this area, it has un expected international consequences!
I think we actually need to wait and see what happens. The article is from an unnamed source claiming performance concerns with a single commander, and some units to be presumably moved. It's also referring to the Africa Corps, so these may or may not be Wagner. The though process might even be to remove the Wagner fighters who have relationships with the locals outside of the MoD chain of command and replace them with more reliable and loyal personnel.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Hangar Returns. The story of the self-propelled hangar continues. It's been upgraded with a corrugated roofing material and has gotten a new EW antenna. Allegedly it's back in action, presumably still around Krasnogorovka where Russia has greatly expanded their foothold recently.

The Hangar Forever. Our well protected hero remains very active around Krasnogorovka, reaching the factory in the center without being fired upon by Ukrainian troops. Based on the way it's moving around, I'm almost tempted to think it's intentionally trying to draw enemy fire. Don't mind the obnoxious soundtrack (someone was trying to be funny). What's telling is that the previous Russian mechanized assault in Krasnogorovka also didn't draw any anti-vehicle fires from Ukraine. I suspect Ukraine may have either pulled back from some of these areas or may be short on munitions, both artillery and infantry-carried anti-tank.

 
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Fredled

Active Member
@KipPotapych I had to read twice to understand that they have found in Germany 161 children who were previously reported as abducted by Russians in Ukraine.
My explanation is that these children went with relatives to Russia when the invasion started, then these relative moved from Russia to Germany with these children.

A lot of people are moving to and from Occupied Ukraine to Europe and vice versa through Russia. Some Ukrainians want to return to their home in Occupied Ukraine because that's where they always lived and where they have relative, sometimes a spouse, parents or children left there. They have to fly from Europe to Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport. There, they have to wait in a corridor between 10 and 25 hours, until the FSB (some people call them again KGB) decides if they can enter the Russian Federation or not.
Most of them are accepted. Some of them are rejected because, after analysing datas from the smartphones, they discovered that they "liked" a pro-Uke video, or something similar. There was a case when a woman made a small donation of a few euros to the Ukrainian military. And they saw it.
The most stupid case was a woman rejected because she published a video about what she saw in Mariupol. She was lucky not to be jailed. But why did she try to go there if she did such a video?
Those who are rejected or who don't try to return lose all the real estates they owned before the war.
Those who are accepted can stay in Russia (including Occupied Ukraine) with a renewable foreign visa or a residence permit. Then they can apply for Russian citizenship to recover their real estate if they own some. Real estates property rights are recognised only to Russian citizens.

To move from Russia to Europe, it's more complicated. It became almost impossible for a Russian national to go to Europe. Thought it depends on the embassy where they apply. I don't know about those who hold an Ukrainian passport. But I don't think it's very easy neither.
Russians who managed to leave Russia while it was still possible are stripped from their Russian nationality if it appears that they did so to dodge mobilisation or draft, or if they had expressed anti-Putin or anti-War views. They also lose whatever real estate or monies they had in Russia.

Russia is the only way to travel because crossing the frontline is not permitted or too dangerous.

That's what I saw on video (I can't find the link anymore because things roll quickly on my PC), but partly corroborated by one off line source.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
With regards to wreckage of destroyed vehicle at a garage ,its very hard to determine to what use it had been or whose but Russia does use civilian vehicles in its logistics chain ,certainly there are reports of complaints by Russian troops of supply issues so it would be understandable for Ukraine to target as many as possible with said drones ,that Russia is building a road network north of the Azov sea to bypass Kerch bridge would bring such vehicles within range of Ukraine's drones
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@KipPotapych I had to read twice to understand that they have found in Germany 161 children who were previously reported as abducted by Russians in Ukraine.
My explanation is that these children went with relatives to Russia when the invasion started, then these relative moved from Russia to Germany with these children.
In other words, these children were not kidnapped by Russia as the article is still suggesting? They could also very well be in Germany as the initial destination to begin with is my understanding. The article does not provide any information to contradict it either. I read it a few times in both, Ukrainian and English, and I am still having difficulties understanding what they wrote and what the police chief said.

As for having to move through Russia to the annexed territories controlled by Russia, I would think that one has to be out of their mind doing so via Ukraine simply due to a high risk of being detained or worse as a Russian collaborator. If I were, for whatever reason, to travel to that part of the world, I would definitely be travelling via Russia and would advise to anyone heading that way to do the same (after advising not to travel at all, lol).

Also, Russians still travel to Europe. It became more difficult and less affordable, but there are still plenty who do. Ironically, I communicated with one today who is currently in the EU (for a birthday vacation).

I haven’t heard anything legitimate about confiscation of assets that you mention.


In other news, it appears that the aid package to Ukraine is growing legs in the US and may move forward in the next few days. Biden expressed his support for Johnson’s bill. And so did the democrats of the House.


 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
In regard to the strike at Dzhankoi. The videos look quite epic. The Russian sources are not saying much. Voevoda Telegram channel states that “(flying) equipment is intact” (I typed it as he wrote it, with brackets and all) and no dead or wounded:


Fighterbomber didn’t say a thing yet, but some irrelevant distractions (starting to dislike his channel myself lately). Rybar is not saying much either aside from some damaged equipment and a building:


The Ukrainian sources indicate that the Russians lost 5 (!) S-400 launchers in the strike:


Others indicate a radar was lost as well, but with no proof of any kind. A bunch of dead personnel also has been reported - I saw numbers of 20+.

The videos of the explosions are all over the place, but can be viewed here, in case you missed it:



In regard to the Chernihiv strike. Ukrainian sources indicate over a dozen dead civilians (the number has grown since, I am sure):


The Russian sources indicate that the building (a hotel) was used for military purposes and a number of military personnel was killed, potentially including some high ranking officers (including a general). Just a couple of links, but there are definitely more discussing this:



Those were all Russian and Ukrainian sources cited above, so a few pounds of salt, obviously, and all that (I almost feel dirty, hence the (mandatory?) “disclosure”).

Edit: GUR’s claims about the strike on Dzhankoi:

GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs: on April 17, 2024, as a result of a successful operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the military airfield of the city of Dzhankoy in the temporarily occupied Crimea, the following were destroyed or critically damaged:

● 4 S-400 air defense missile launchers;
● 3 radar stations;
● air defense equipment control point;
● "Fundament-M" airspace surveillance equipment.



Another edit: Some Ukrainian sources allege that there may not have been any S-400 or other equipment as claimed at the location of the strike:




One more edit: The Ukrainians confirm yet unpublished Russian claims (yes, they actually say that the Russians will soon publish a video and offer a screenshot of the video, lol) that they hit and destroyed two Mig-29 and one S-300.


I should probably start a new post, lol: And now the video(s) promised by the Ukrainians:


Ukrainian source says three Migs, not two:

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
As discussed previously, further evidence of Russian aircraft operating over the Ukrainian positions. This is one is claimed to be near Berdychi:


Chasov Yar:


Reportedly, Germany is planning to supply Ukraine with several Iris-T units, with one coming in a “few weeks”:


According to Scholz, the EU is also going to send seven more Patriot systems, one coming from Germany and six more from other member states:

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
As discussed previously, further evidence of Russian aircraft operating over the Ukrainian positions. This is one is claimed to be near Berdychi:


Chasov Yar:


Reportedly, Germany is planning to supply Ukraine with several Iris-T units, with one coming in a “few weeks”:


According to Scholz, the EU is also going to send seven more Patriot systems, one coming from Germany and six more from other member states:

I think part of the issue is that Ukraine's S-300 pool is finally running dry. Losses of the type have been mounting steadily, the past ~8 months have been unkind to Ukraine's S-300 force, and expenditure of missiles means the type is unlikely to remain in active use for all that much longer anyway, at least in these large quantities. Ukraine needs Patriots not as a boost to their air defense capability in the most dangerous areas to provide improvement over Soviet-era S-300 variants, but to actually replace large numbers of SAMs. And I don't think 7 batteries is going to cut it. They will certainly help, but some will be lost if they're moved closer to the front, and it's not just giving Ukraine the launchers, it's also keeping them well supplied with missiles.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ I agree. The Ukrainian outlet article I cited above says that 400-500 missiles are expected to be produced in 2024 for the Iris and no further increase in production is expected. How many of those would be destined for Ukraine is questionable as well.
 
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