The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the update, Feanor.

Russian forces have gained some ground in Krynki. Ukraine is still funnelling troops into this foothold, though their casualties are horrendous and it's unclear what possible purpose this effort could serve at this point.
This seems to be insanity on the Ukrainian part at this point. It always seemed crazy to me, some points in time crazier than others, but it appears to be clinical now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks for the update, Feanor.


This seems to be insanity on the Ukrainian part at this point. It always seemed crazy to me, some points in time crazier than others, but it appears to be clinical now.
But it's par the course. Ukraine held on to Artemovsk/Bakhmut past all sense and reason, littering the last two roads into town with destroyed vehicles, armored and not. And the lack of artillery support as supplies ran low, the complex terrain, and the mass of Russian ordinance meant that despite being on the defensive Ukraine was losing troops even on the front line at a higher rate, nevermind moving in and out of the town. And don't even think about the nightmare for CASEVAC. Any heavily wounded personnel that could be saved under regular conditions (in this war) were almost certainly screwed as they couldn't be helicoptered, or even trucked out. Krynki is more of the same, and on a smaller scale this time. The conditions on the ground are horrific and Ukrainian casualties as a portion of committed forces are awful. But given the small scale, in the context of the war as a whole they probably don't even matter all that much. Ukraine can keep feeding people into that meatgrinder for months to come. In the meanwhile Zelensky will go on TV and talk about how Russia hasn't captured a single village or how Ukraine shoots down dozens of Russian aircraft every day, or how Ukraine is still on the offensive boldly forcing the Dnepr. The last happens to be true, even if a hopeless effort.
 
Some updates regarding the alleged shoot down of the A-50 and the Il-22.

X has a post of the “II-22” after it made an emergency landing on an civilian airfield. It shows significant shrapnel damage at the tail section of the involved aircraft. No news about the A-50 that was also allegedly hit in the same attack.

I personally think that Ukraine either modified an “old” S200 in order to make such long range attacks or they somehow sneaked a boat with a SAM missile launcher into the sea of Azov in order to get close enough. Pure speculation, but interesting none the less.GD4hiMKW0AIkvt_.jpg
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some updates regarding the alleged shoot down of the A-50 and the Il-22.

X has a post of the “II-22” after it made an emergency landing on an civilian airfield. It shows significant shrapnel damage at the tail section of the involved aircraft. No news about the A-50 that was also allegedly hit in the same attack.

I personally think that Ukraine either modified an “old” S200 in order to make such long range attacks or they somehow sneaked a boat with a SAM missile launcher into the sea of Azov in order to get close enough. Pure speculation, but interesting none the less.View attachment 51080
Weapon Master claims the A-50 is downed and the Il-22 damaged, citing an unnamed Russian source. He suggests that the two main possibilities are a Ukrainian airforce sortie and friendly fire. The latter seems to be the most common version being discussed.


EDIT: Peskov said that he has no information that any Russian planes were shot down by Ukrainian forces when commenting the situation with the Il-22 and A-50. This might be a tacit admission of a friendly fire incident.

 
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Milne Bay

Active Member
Weapon Master claims the A-50 is downed and the Il-22 damaged, citing an unnamed Russian source. He suggests that the two main possibilities are a Ukrainian airforce sortie and friendly fire. The latter seems to be the most common version being discussed.


EDIT: Peskov said that he has no information that any Russian planes were shot down by Ukrainian forces when commenting the situation with the Il-22 and A-50. This might be a tacit admission of a friendly fire incident.

It seems that the Ukrainians are taking the credit for the attack.
Few details of course:
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
A massive explosion of a Russian MT-LB based VBIED. It's unclear if the intent was to strike Ukrainian positions or make a hole in a minefield.
It looks like they targeted a small pontoon bridge. And that they realy meant it.

Feanor said:
A Russian T-80BVM mod'23 with the new Krysha roof cage, and Saniya EW station operating near Avdeevka. It's one of several EW stations being installed on Russian vehicles.
The funny thing is that both Russians and Ukrainians are using it..
It's produced by China but maybe copies are replicated domestically. Not sure of the effectiveness of this found-on-Ali-Baba system. Would Chinese export their top military technologies?

Feanor said:
Ukraine's former attorney general Lutsenko recently claimed that Ukraine has lost 500k killed and heavily wounded in the current war. He mentions these as "безвозвратные потери" meaning service members won't be returning to service even if they survive.
recent estimates put the number of killed as 150K. 500K in total casualities is possible.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Putting this here as unverified but interesting from several points of view.
Significant loss - if true
And what shot them down? Another interesting question
Ukrainian military officials have reported on this several times. While not a proof they actually did it, it's already a little bit more than crazy rumours.
Anyway, the Russians still has 18 of them so it won't change much. At worse the sky won't be observed for a few days, the time they fly a new one to the region.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Ukrainian military officials have reported on this several times. While not a proof they actually did it, it's already a little bit more than crazy rumours.
Anyway, the Russians still has 18 of them so it won't change much. At worse the sky won't be observed for a few days, the time they fly a new one to the region.
I've heard chatter of Russian aerial bombardments significantly dropping after the downing of several Su-34 aircraft. I assume similar consequences may follow here - whether to investigate and correct air defense procedures, or out of fear of additional Ukrainian attacks. Regardless, it's unreasonable to rush another very expensive and strategic asset to a location where one was just downed.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
Is it just me or the reported percentage of intercepted Russian drones and missiles dropped significantly in the past couple of months or so? If it isn’t just me, what are the thoughts on the reasons for the reduction in intercept rates? Scarcity of resources? Russians doing something different?
I also noticed it. They came from 70% to 50% for the cruise missiles and from 90% to 70% for the Shaheds.
Russians are using more advanced missiles. The Kinzhal which was considered as the jewel of the Russian Air Force, to be used only in extreme situations are now launched routinely. But they have an even more difficult missile to intercept. The Burya if i remember well.

KipPotapych said:
Most (if not all) analysts and western governments officials predicted more and greater intensity strikes on the critical infrastructure this winter that Russians concentrated on last year, but it appears that Russia is avoiding it for the most part and puts most of the effort into striking manufacturing facilities, whether military or otherwise. What are the thoughts on this? Is this change in strategy the cause of lower interception rates due to the location of the Ukrainian air defences?
Yes. Targets are also more diversified and more unpredictable. Last year, they mostly hit power plants and residential buildings in large cities, mainly in Kiyev.
So the Ukrainians protected these places. But the Russians learned that hitting these targets didn't make them win the war so they started to hit other targets.
They still target power plants, but also factories and the frontline. And less apartment buildings.

I think that the Ukrainian air defence is as effective as before, if not more, but they can only cover a few locations. Suffices for the Russians to strike elsewhere.

More recently, Ukrainians precised that if a certain number of missiles had not been destroyed, among them many were diverted from their course (perhaps by jamming Glosnass GPS) and missed their target.
Is it true or propaganda, I don't know.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Big_Zucchini said:
Regardless, it's unreasonable to rush another very expensive and strategic asset to a location where one was just downed.
As long as they still have them available, for the Russian, it costs them nothing. They are ready to use anything it will take to win this war.

Feanor said:
Russian forces have gained some ground in Krynki. Ukraine is still funnelling troops into this foothold, though their casualties are horrendous and it's unclear what possible purpose this effort could serve at this point.
KipPotapych said:
This seems to be insanity on the Ukrainian part at this point. It always seemed crazy to me, some points in time crazier than others, but it appears to be clinical now.
Feanor said:
But it's par the course. Ukraine held on to Artemovsk/Bakhmut past all sense and reason,
I disagree. Moving to the Left Bank makes an excellent diversion against the Russian concentrated in the north east, and with a minimal number of forces.
Either the Russians move ASAP some forces to this area or the Ukes reach Crimea.

Of course, it's certainly the most difficult place to be for an Ukrainian soldier. But they do remarkably well. It's not just hit and go. They do hold a position.
Putin said that his forces were about to eradicate them in a matter of hours. Two weeks later they are still there.

There is one thing to understand: In this war either you advance or the other advance. Ukrainians had to protect the Right Bank to prevent the Russians to come back. The Russian shell everyday their defensive positions across the river. The Ukrainians had to do something to stop the shelling. One of these things is to cross the river to attack the positions of the Russian artillery.

The other reason is that they could reach Crimea easily if they succeed in crossing the river in large numbers. So they try to settle a bridge head there. And, as I said above, the Russians are forced to divert troops there to avoid that.

Another solution for the Russians is to blow a dam to flood the river banks. Unfortunately, or fortunately, they already plaid this card. Ukrainians know that they won;t do it again, so they can attempt to cross.

In Bahkmut and Sievirodonetsk, Ukrainians stopped the Russians as much as they can, but, according to them, their goal was to eliminate as many Russian troops as they could. They said that it's better to kill Russians there than retreating in an apparent economy of Ukrainian soldiers lives and having to kill them anyway 200 km or 400 km further west.
And it makes sens. You either fight or surrender immediately.

Also extremely important is to prevent the Russians from closing the land gap between the eastern front line and the Dniepr (and the Zaporyzha bassin). If the Russian fill this gap, all the land east of the Dniepr is definitely lost. That's precisely what they did.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
friendly fire. The latter seems to be the most common version being discussed.
How could the Russians mistake an AWACS and another large command plane for Ukrainian planes, knowing that Ukraine doesn't have these types of plane and if they still do by some miracle, there is zero chance that they would venture in this area?
I would like to say that with Russians everything is possible, but there are limits to the joke.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukrainian military officials have reported on this several times. While not a proof they actually did it, it's already a little bit more than crazy rumours.
Anyway, the Russians still has 18 of them so it won't change much. At worse the sky won't be observed for a few days, the time they fly a new one to the region.
Tricky subject. If this is an A-50U, there are not 18 of them available. Losing such a valuable asset definitely matters.

How could the Russians mistake an AWACS and another large command plane for Ukrainian planes, knowing that Ukraine doesn't have these types of plane and if they still do by some miracle, there is zero chance that they would venture in this area?
I would like to say that with Russians everything is possible, but there are limits to the joke.
How could this be a Ukrainian downing given the location? It downed in the eastern part of the Azov Sea. You would have to have a Patriot battery behind Russian lines or you would have to have flown a jet at low altitude deep in, performed a launch, and then gotten back out all without Russia knowing about it. I guess it remains to be see if anything comes out of this.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
With regards to the Ukrainian marines in Krynky the right bank behind them is higher and offers advantage to them for supportive forces, it seems to be the Russians that have lost an excessive amount of forces and material in attacking in relation to Ukrainian losses ,I'm sure there are Ukrainian losses but without a neutral source proving various postings of either sides "victories and claims" are meaningless
 

Larry_L

Active Member
How could this be a Ukrainian downing given the location? It downed in the eastern part of the Azov Sea. You would have to have a Patriot battery behind Russian lines or you would have to have flown a jet at low altitude deep in, performed a launch, and then gotten back out all without Russia knowing about it. I guess it remains to be see if anything comes out of this.
I first thought that for Ukraine to do this they would have to have some new capability. It turns out that this could have been done by the Pac-2 from the patriot. I have seen recently, indications that Ukraine might be hunting an A-50. If the Russians missed this they were sleeping. I don't see why the A-50 needed to be that close to the line of contact. It is possible that it was looking at some bait? General Zaluzhnyi has released a radar trace showing several aircraft over the Azov sea. If I read it correctly, it shows aircraft disappearing south East of Melitipol. The image below shows the limits of the range of the missile. Is it known where the aircraft went down?

1705371849571.jpeg

The radar trace is the next link followed by supporting links.



 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I disagree. Moving to the Left Bank makes an excellent diversion against the Russian concentrated in the north east, and with a minimal number of forces.
Either the Russians move ASAP some forces to this area or the Ukes reach Crimea.
That is quite a stretch though, regardless how you look at it. They are nowhere near reaching Crimea. Minimal number of forces is also quite questionable. I would take a wild guess, and that is all it is, it probably costs Ukraine some multiple in personnel to hold that stretch of a couple kilometres (that has virtually no depth) than what it costs to Russia to hold it where it is at. What those lives are worth is also debatable, in terms of what they are getting in return.

Of course, it's certainly the most difficult place to be for an Ukrainian soldier. But they do remarkably well. It's not just hit and go. They do hold a position.
Without a doubt it is difficult. They are sitting remarkably well in, like I mentioned, a stretch of 2 or so kilometres with likely no prospect of moving forward. Just sitting and rotating when possible and it isn’t often. Evacuation of the wounded is again questionable at best. As was described by the article I cited earlier, they are waiting for hours, likely much longer. I would guess that most do not make it. Again, all speculation on my part.

Putin said that his forces were about to eradicate them in a matter of hours. Two weeks later they are still there.
I haven’t heard. Perhaps. But what does he know anyway?

There is one thing to understand: In this war either you advance or the other advance. Ukrainians had to protect the Right Bank to prevent the Russians to come back. The Russian shell everyday their defensive positions across the river. The Ukrainians had to do something to stop the shelling. One of these things is to cross the river to attack the positions of the Russian artillery.
There is no advancement here. No advancement for the Russians in this direction is forecasted in any foreseeable future. It is highly unlikely that the Ukes will advance beyond where they are either, but will keep sustaining the losses until no longer possible.

Like seaspear mentioned, Ukraine has the elevation advantage on the right bank, so if it was all about controlling the Russian artillery, there would be no urgent need to “hold” a point on the left bank at all, but likely occasional random raids would do just as much.

Again, it all comes to how much one values the lives of the personnel sent to the grinder. I would tend to think the rate of survival is not very high compared to the opposite.

The other reason is that they could reach Crimea easily if they succeed in crossing the river in large numbers. So they try to settle a bridge head there. And, as I said above, the Russians are forced to divert troops there to avoid that.
Again, they would not reach Crimea easily. There is nothing easy about it. The amount of the required resources to pull it off would be immense and likely impossible to stage, especially provided the need for heavy equipment. If we allow for that possibility, Russia would allocate a lot more resources towards it (and it appears they can afford it for the time being) and there would be no Ukrainian “foothold” in Krynky. Most likely, Russians are “annoyed” but comfortable with the way things are.

If there was a breakthrough by the Ukrainian forces towards and beyond Tokmak, I would think your theory would be valid, to some degree. In the absence of such, I think it is close to insanity holding that position.

It is hard to argue anything with any sense of validity here though because we do not really know the losses sustained by any side here though. But logic suggests this is not in the favour of Ukraine.

Another solution for the Russians is to blow a dam to flood the river banks. Unfortunately, or fortunately, they already plaid this card. Ukrainians know that they won;t do it again, so they can attempt to cross.
I do not believe there was any definitive answer to who “they” were yet. Lots of speculations, some more valid than others, but no definitive answers.

Crossing is likely impossible beyond what the Ukrainians are doing currently.

In Bahkmut and Sievirodonetsk, Ukrainians stopped the Russians as much as they can, but, according to them, their goal was to eliminate as many Russian troops as they could. They said that it's better to kill Russians there than retreating in an apparent economy of Ukrainian soldiers lives and having to kill them anyway 200 km or 400 km further west.
And it makes sens. You either fight or surrender immediately.
I would venture a guess, there aren’t that many (relatively speaking) Russians involved here that would be actively involved elsewhere. And again, we do not know what the losses are here. The assumption always seems to be that the Russians are losing significantly more troops than the Ukrainian side, regardless of the circumstance. Clearly that cannot be valid in all circumstances. The UK MoD is again tweeting about the 90% Russian losses citing some “Russian military blogger”


Appears to be similar to the “shovel tweets” from months back without any validity, but it is being reported everywhere. We will see what happens. Russians took Bakhmut after those tweets.

Also extremely important is to prevent the Russians from closing the land gap between the eastern front line and the Dniepr (and the Zaporyzha bassin). If the Russian fill this gap, all the land east of the Dniepr is definitely lost. That's precisely what they did.
I would appreciate you expanding that thought. I am not entirely sure what you mean by “closing the gap” and “all the land east of Dnepr is definitely lost”. And how does this relate to Krynky.


The following thread in Tiwtter talks about Krynky. For those who do not have Twitter (does it work?):


For those who do have Twitter and prefer it that way:

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
As long as they still have them available, for the Russian, it costs them nothing. They are ready to use anything it will take to win this war.
The concept of war economy may seem to have been lost on Russian ground forces, but the air force operates with a higher degree of profession. Russia's armed forces have also been in an upward trend regarding planning and efficiency - they have improved since February 2022, quite a lot.

How could the Russians mistake an AWACS and another large command plane for Ukrainian planes, knowing that Ukraine doesn't have these types of plane and if they still do by some miracle, there is zero chance that they would venture in this area?
I would like to say that with Russians everything is possible, but there are limits to the joke.
Russian AD is built with provisions for both centralized (to an extent) and decentralized operation, and a lot of in between. The mode of operation for AD units could vary between areas, likely more decentralized as you approach the front (centralization improves efficiency at the cost of informational vulnerability, requiring certain technological superiority).
There is the subject of training and by extension how prone are AD crews to make rash decisions.
And finally there is the subject of deception. You can deceive a radar in any number of ways, and in the absence of modern and relevant analysis tools and tactics - the characteristics of a radar blip can only tell you so much.

The radar trace is the next link followed by supporting links.
One disappeared and near simultaneously one began lumbering south roughly in a line toward Anapa where the Il-22M reportedly landed. This probably confirms Ukraine at least had a direct and real time sight of the situation.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
I would appreciate you expanding that thought. I am not entirely sure what you mean by “closing the gap” and “all the land east of Dnepr is definitely lost”. And how does this relate to Krynky.
The more the Russians advance westward, north of Vuhledar and further on, north of Huliapole, lets until Novopavlivka (not from the south but from the east), the further away they push the Ukrainians from Mariupol. Mariupol is quiet close to the frontline and, because of this, is not secure.
Map

Crimea is 120km from Kehrson. It's not a long distance neither. If the Russian defence beaks, Ukrainians can reach Crimea in two days.
I don't think that Russians are just annoyed. It's a fact that the Ukrainians have been stopped there, just as anywhere else. There is no reason for optimism at this moment. Until the situation changes.

Crimea and Mariupol are the two major targets and that's where the land strip occupied by the Russians is the narrowest. It's so for a reason.
 
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