The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Fredled

Active Member
On the downing of the A-50 (ISW)
ISW said:
It is unclear why Russian pilots should be more comfortable with the idea that their ground-based air defenders are so incompetent.
:p
According to them, Russia had 9 A-50 aircraft before the strike. (Now 8 left)
It's an important loss, yet, not the last, unique piece.

China’s state-owned banks are tightening curbs on funding to Russian clients
That's new. It's the first time since January 2022 that China takes a concrete step to sanction Russian, or at least its defence industry. It's symbolical (only two banks, and between what they say and what they do, there is a gap) but at least China admits that sanctions against the Russian military industry should be enforced.
So far they said that "the interest of both parties should be preserved".

Exact number of SCALP missiles France delivered and will deliver. I don't understand why they don't keep this information secret.
Russians just have to count the number of missiles hurled at them until they can feel safe.:rolleyes:
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The more the Russians advance westward, north of Vuhledar and further on, north of Huliapole, lets until Novopavlivka (not from the south but from the east), the further away they push the Ukrainians from Mariupol. Mariupol is quiet close to the frontline and, because of this, is not secure.
Map

Crimea is 120km from Kehrson. It's not a long distance neither. If the Russian defence beaks, Ukrainians can reach Crimea in two days.
I don't think that Russians are just annoyed. It's a fact that the Ukrainians have been stopped there, just as anywhere else. There is no reason for optimism at this moment. Until the situation changes.

Crimea and Mariupol are the two major targets and that's where the land strip occupied by the Russians is the narrowest. It's so for a reason.
Ukrainians so far did in over 6 months what they planned to do within the first 24 hours of the most recent counteroffensive. And they lost some of that now. While things aren’t static, it is highly unlikely to change significantly. And it definitely isn’t happening from Kherson a river away, in my opinion.

The reason Mariupol is not further away from the frontline is because the surrounding area west (including south- and northwest) of Donetsk is likely the most fortified area on the entire continent.

I agree with the first paragraph, but it is a given. Krynky has little to no effect on that process though, in my opinion. Which is what the conversation was about :)
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
A couple of articles in regard to the missile production in Russia and my (and Fredled’s) posts concerning intercept rates. I wouldn’t entirely believe the first one because the study was done by Yermak-McFaul International Working Group, which I never heard of before, but I don’t necessarily trust either of the men sharing the surnames the organization is named after. The second article uses the same source for the production numbers, but adds a bit more context. The numbers, however, somewhat corroborate with the numbers I saw reported previously by other sources (I think even here, perhaps?), so they are probably more or less on point. The first article is by Politico, which is free to read, so I will only mention the numbers and leave the rest to the interested readers. The second is by Financial Times, probably under the paywall, so I will put a few quotes and pics.


According to the aforementioned organization, Russian monthly missile production capacity went from 50 in 2022 to 100 in mid-2023 and to 115 by the end of last year, with that capacity still increasing. The authors come to the obvious conclusions that a) they won’t be able to sustain the current rate of attacks and b) they won’t be able to restore the now depleted stocks they had in February of 2022. Kind of “duh” statements. It would be interesting to see how that increasing capacity compares to the west’s and what is being provided to Ukraine in particular and in terms of air defense specifically.

There is a graph in the article that outlines reported missiles launched vs launched but intercepted that one can take a look at in the article. Note you can switch tabs between drones and missiles in the same graph.

The other side of things that the article talks about is the sanctions avoidance. I will paste a couple of graphs from the article because I find them more interesting:



As it has been already reported previously (thought the article I cited here earlier was a bit more liberal with current imports, unless they talked about something specific and I don’t recall at the moment), Russian imports of military related goods have been about what they were prior to the invasion for over a year now.

While China is the main provider of the components, a good chunk is still coming from the US. EU and Taiwan are the other two major suppliers



There is another graph in the article that shows the specific manufacturers, but that one is more or less common sense and is not very interesting (to me).

The other article is, as already mentioned, from Financial Times.


First, they talk about the raid from January 8 (the article from the 13th). According to the article, 59 missiles were launched, 33 of which reached their targets (compared to the usual 80% intercept rate, according to the article). Not sure if the image is easily readable here (I squeezed it a bit), but it outlines the type of the missiles and what happened to them:



This is quite remarkable, in my opinion. We can’t say with any degree of certainty how different it is from the actual usual “80% interception rate”. Could be just that Ukraine reports the numbers as required by the situation at any given time - ie they are possibly exaggerating now to show the desperation due to the aid being held up in both the EU and the US and underrepresent it when they need to show they are doing great with aid provided. No one really knows for sure outside of the certain circles that we aren’t privileged of. My guess is, that I have nothing to support with (hence, a guess), the intercept rate was never close to 80% when there was good amount of missiles involved.

The other incident outlined in the article is from the following Saturday, January 13:

On Saturday, Russia fired its third big barrage of the year, launching 40 drones and missiles including ballistic missiles, which its defence ministry said targeted Ukraine’s “military-industrial complex”.

Ukrainian air defence shot down eight of them, while another 20 munitions were electronically jammed and failed to reach their targets, the country’s air force said.


The article also talks about the change in strategy that supports what I proposed previously:

The scale and sophistication of Russia’s latest air strikes are of a different order from last winter’s attacks, according to officials and military analysts.

Russia fired more than 500 drones and missiles between December 29 and January 2 alone, said officials in Kyiv. Increasingly, the main targets appear to be in Ukraine’s defence industry, such as Artem, rather than the energy grid that Russia tried to destroy last winter.

The attacks have been carefully planned, with staggered waves of drones and missiles designed to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences[…]

To break Ukraine’s defences, Russia has typically first launched slow-flying drones, then low-flying subsonic cruise missiles, and lastly ballistic missiles that plummet to their target at multiples of the speed of sound which make them hard to hit.


It also mentions the potential (greater) aims and potential consequences (which isn’t necessarily achievable, but Mrs. Massicot has a point):

“The Russians are trying to crack the code of Ukraine’s air defence,” said Dara Massicot, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. “If they succeed, and Ukraine can’t defend its skies, that’s a huge problem as it opens a way for Russia to send in heavy bombers.”

The article also provides a number of missiles that could be supplied by North Korea, which is apparently relatively small, according to their source (I honestly thought we we were talking about significantly larger numbers):

Yang Uk, a defence expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said North Korea could have reserves of up to 100 KN-23s, most of which it might transfer to Russia for the right price.

Iran, however, according to the article, is a lot more serious:

Iran has the largest ballistic missile programme in the Middle East and could supply Russia “with a few hundred ballistic missiles” just to start, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a US think-tank.

The article also talks about the aid that is held up, etc. It also mentions the hope for Taurus missiles that may come from Germany. That, however, was turned down today by an overwhelming majority of the German lawmakers (the numbers I saw looked like 4 to 1 against, but I could be wrong). At least for now.

That’d be it for this post.

Edit: it appears that I mentioned more than just numbers from the first article as opposed to what I was aiming for, lmao.
 
Last edited:

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The article also talks about the aid that is held up, etc. It also mentions the hope for Taurus missiles that may come from Germany. That, however, was turned down today by an overwhelming majority of the German lawmakers (the numbers I saw looked like 4 to 1 against, but I could be wrong). At least for now.
The opposition CDU/CSU faction tried to tack a declaration to "call upon the government to deliver Taurus to Ukraine in the greatest number possible and immediately order replacement" onto a completely unrelated debate which basically just had the Bundestag hearing the 2022 report of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Bundeswehr.

The result was (of course) 485 against, 178 in favour - with only CDU/CSU voting in favour of their own proposition. One CDU and one CSU representative voted no, from all other parties they got yes from two AfD members (rightwing extremist) and the single representative of SSW (danish minority party).

There is no setback of any kind in this, nor is it a "for now" - the question of Taurus for Ukraine was authoritatively dealt with months ago, and some right-wingers stomping on the ground with a "but i want to" isn't helping their case at all in this regard.

In the same Bundestag session yesterday the parliament also struck down a similarly misplaced proposal from opposition party AfD to make financial, military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine dependent on the country initiating peace negotiations with Russia btw.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It isn't exact. "About 50" is not an exact number. Nor is "about 40". And the UK's delivered Storm Shadow, which is 99% the same, & which the target can't distinguish from SCALP.
It might also not be the real number.

On the downing of the A-50 (ISW):p
According to them, Russia had 9 A-50 aircraft before the strike. (Now 8 left)
It's an important loss, yet, not the last, unique piece.
Iirc several dozen were built with almost all of them still in Russia. There were iirc 9 A-50U one of which went down. This is the relatively modern variant. However many more are available for upgrading, and the A-100 at least seems to be nearing completion. The impact of this loss is very real, but is more significant in the short term then in the medium term.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There has been requests by Ukraine for the Taurus missile ,this article goes into detail some of the advantages of this missile over the Storm Shadow/Scalp missile particularly for structures like the Kerch bridge
 

Larry_L

Active Member
I guess today is the anniversary of the fall to Russia of the Donetsk airport in 2015. It seemed like Russia was using this battle for training, rotating unit after unit through the area for months. This is especially poignant this year since Marinka has been completely taken recently. Even back then Ukraine tenaciously fought for territory sometimes floor by floor in a building.




Increasingly UAV's are standing in for artillery as a means of combating armored vehicles. Here is a short video of testing a shaped charge on plate steel. The charge appears to be about the size of a 16 oz (473 ml) bottle, and punches a hole in about an inch of steel with energy left over. An area on the bottom of the plate spalls off.


Serhii Flash estimates the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPVs to be around 30%. This is his educated guess He also speaks to the factors that determine their success.


In other drone news, Ukraine set part of an oil storage terminal on fire in Klintsy Russia


I have seen several videos of a contest between several Bradley IFV's and a T-90 tank. The ERA on the tank seemed to do it's job, however it is difficult to sight in on a moving vehicle while being hammered with 25mm rounds at a furious rate. The following is an interview with one of the Bradley crews in this fight. There is also a bit from the mobile Bradley repair crew comparing themselves to a formula 1 pit crew.

 

Fredled

Active Member
@KipPotapych About missile production in Russia and other equipment: Anyybody who knew the topic a little bit was aware that Russia had the potential to increase production twofold or threefold in the short term.
It's no surprise that they did.

However they didn't do it prior the full scale invasion, and at some point they had depleted 2/3 of their long range missiles stock within a few months.
The same effect applies on other armements, ammunition, tanks, shells, basic field equipment etc to various extents.
Any army who loses what the Russians have been losing should be concerned and readjust their strategy.
It's also yet one more signs which speaks volume about the high expectation they had for their Special Military Operation. and how they underestimated Ukrainian resistance.

What is more surprising is that Russia did double down instead of minimising the damage. That Russia double its defence expenditures just for the war in Ukraine, is not really a good news for Russia. It's of course no good news for Ukraine, but for Russia, it means that things are much more difficult than they thought.
This war is weighting on their economy and on their society more and more. One day, some people there will have to realise that it must stop. Because the further they go, the higher is the risk of collapse in case of failure.

KipPotapych said:
the intercept rate was never close to 80% when there was good amount of missiles involved.
Ar some point between the mid 2022 and mid 2023, the interception rate was excellent because Ukrainians just received new AD systems from the west. Then the Russian adjusted their tactics and their arsenal accordingly.
IMO, 80% was the best rate at a certain period. Not an average for the whole duration of the conflict.
 
Last edited:

Fredled

Active Member
There has been requests by Ukraine for the Taurus missile ,this article goes into detail some of the advantages of this missile over the Storm Shadow/Scalp missile particularly for structures like the Kerch bridge
It seems that the refusal to sent Taurus to Ukraine is that they don't want to give away expensive missiles which they have in short quantities. If I were them, I would increase production of Taurus and give them to Ukraine once there is stock available.
Maybe that's what they will do.
There is also the fear that the Ukes would strike targets inside Russia with them. But I don't think that's the main reason.
Note that the Americans are also reluctant to give more than a few units of ATACMS. But they are preparing some batch retrofitted for use in Ukraine.
 
Last edited:

Fredled

Active Member
Larry_L said:
I guess today is the anniversary of the fall to Russia of the Donetsk airport in 2015.
Few people realises how far the Ukrainians have been through resisting Russian invasion and pro-Russian separatist fighters. Then you had Ostomel, Azovstal, Lysychansk/Sievirodontsk, Bakhmut, and now Krinky.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
While things aren’t static, it is highly unlikely to change significantly. And it definitely isn’t happening from Kherson a river away, in my opinion.
Because the Russians manage to stop all the attempts to retake territories.
Had the Russian not deployed troop ASAP in all areas of the front, and build defensive lines, Ukrianians would have reached Crimea or the Sea of Azov. Russians were fully prepared for the summer 2023 Counter Offensive.
It doesn't mean that these goals are crazy or unattainable.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Norway has recently announced the allocation of 2 billion NOK (190 million USD) to weapons production in support of Ukraine, half of it is allocated mainly to increase production of 155mm ammo at Nammo -- they will expand production significantly and increase staff by 70%, over a 2-year period. Some of the money will be allocated to increasing production of missile engines. It will take two years to implement all the expansions. They do not say how much production will increase, only that this latest investment, together with other recent investments, ammo production is approaching "war time capability". Nammo is one of 4 top ammo producers in Europe. Good news, but should have happened a long time ago...
Ukraina, Nammo | Enormt løft for Nammo: – Nærmer seg en krigsvolumproduksjon (nettavisen.no)
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Nammo had already increased production, & was continuing to increase it, but had warned the government that without either money up front or guaranteed orders from which it could recover the cost, it couldn't afford to increase production capacity as much, or as fast, as was needed to meet desired output.

This is obviously the government's answer. Good! But as you say, it should have happened earlier.

Something similar's happening in the UK, where we're supposedly getting a government-funded eightfold increase in artillery ammunition production capacity - but the base level hasn't been specified.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
In the reading of drone damage to Novateks oil and gas refineries ,there is no mention of how this will hinder Russia's exports of such products being as this is the largest as I understand terminal for this type of export and it has now been shut down for repairs ,does this mark a change in strategies by Ukraine to target this sort of infrastructure that is critical to Russia's revenue ,will this even impact international supplies of such? certainly following Russia's recent decision to selloff some of its Gold revenue to perhaps fund its wartime budget more belt tightening may come
 

Fredled

Active Member
In the reading of drone damage to Novateks oil and gas refineries ,there is no mention of how this will hinder Russia's exports of such products being as this is the largest as I understand terminal for this type of export and it has now been shut down for repairs ,does this mark a change in strategies by Ukraine to target this sort of infrastructure that is critical to Russia's revenue ,will this even impact international supplies of such? certainly following Russia's recent decision to selloff some of its Gold revenue to perhaps fund its wartime budget more belt tightening may come
A successful attack in the St Petersburg region is a surprise. (Ukrinform wrote "Leningrad", LOL)
Usually drone attacks far from Ukraine are either symbolical or utter failures. Here the damages seem quiet important.
It will impact Russian revenues, but not that much. They have plenty of other revenues and the shut down is temporary.
IMO, a bigger blow to Russian revenues was the termination of a liquefied gaz project in the Arctic (forgot the name), due to sanctions.

I don't think it's a "change in strategy". Ukrainians strike whatever they can, anytime they have a chance and the means to do it. They would have done it one year ago if they could have to.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Germany to deliver 6 Sea Kings to Ukraine, along with parts and training. Via Google translate

The Federal Government now also wants to support the defense of Ukraine with a delivery of military helicopters from Bundeswehr stocks. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) had promised the country six multi-purpose helicopters of the type Sea King Mk41, accessory and spare parts packages as well as training for them, the Ministry of Defense announced.

The supporters of Ukraine had previously met for consultations in the so-called Ramstein format. "The 'Sea King' is a proven and robust helicopter that will help Ukrainians in many areas: from reconnaissance over the Black Sea to the transport of soldiers. It is the first German delivery of this kind," Pistorius said. For the protection of the Ukrainian population and infrastructure, air defense remains the number 1 priority. In addition, more speed is needed in arms production.


 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
NATO has signed two deals for production of 155mm ammo, with Nexter Munitions (France) and Junghans Microte (Germany), total value 1.2 billion USD, for "hundreds of thousands of rounds". A significant part will go to Ukraine. This, together with major contract with Nammo (see my post above) and also increase in production in e.g., the UK (see Swerve's post above) and elsewhere are clearly positive signs, I hope they can now scale up quickly!
NATO inks twin artillery deals worth $1.2B to replenish allies' stocks, help Ukraine - Breaking Defense
 
Top