The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Fredled

Active Member
NATO has signed two deals for production of 155mm ammo, with Nexter Munitions (France) and Junghans Microte (Germany), total value 1.2 billion USD, for "hundreds of thousands of rounds". A significant part will go to Ukraine. This, together with major contract with Nammo (see my post above) and also increase in production in e.g., the UK (see Swerve's post above) and elsewhere are clearly positive signs, I hope they can now scale up quickly!
NATO inks twin artillery deals worth $1.2B to replenish allies' stocks, help Ukraine - Breaking Defense
There is steep shortage of 155mm shells, but if the European Union enters panic mode, it will be like with the covid vaccine: They will overshoot and in two years there will too many. LOL.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Germany to deliver 6 Sea Kings to Ukraine, along with parts and training. Via Google translate

The Federal Government now also wants to support the defense of Ukraine with a delivery of military helicopters from Bundeswehr stocks. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) had promised the country six multi-purpose helicopters of the type Sea King Mk41, accessory and spare parts packages as well as training for them, the Ministry of Defense announced.

The supporters of Ukraine had previously met for consultations in the so-called Ramstein format. "The 'Sea King' is a proven and robust helicopter that will help Ukrainians in many areas: from reconnaissance over the Black Sea to the transport of soldiers. It is the first German delivery of this kind," Pistorius said. For the protection of the Ukrainian population and infrastructure, air defense remains the number 1 priority. In addition, more speed is needed in arms production.


They already had a few Sea Kings from UK, at the beginning. AFAIK, they are quiet old.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
So? The stamp in my passport from when I went there says Ленинград.
The name is accurate. Even the band is still called Leningrad.

Someone told me that they kept the old name for the Oblast because it was easier to pronounce. ;)
I suspect they kept the name out of sheer inertia. After the fall of the Union the only places that got renamed back to old names were ones that people cared about or were symbolic. Lots of little spots remain with their Soviet-era names. And the names aren't always ideological in nature. For example Novosibirsk is not named after any Soviet leader, however the name was given in the Soviet era. The town was originally called Novonikolaevsk. Volgograd used to be Stalingrad but before that it was called Tsaritsyn (literally Tsar's Town). Nobody is trying to bring that name back. Krasnodar used to be called Yekaterinodar. Ulyanovsk, former Simbirsk, is still named after Lenin and Kirov is still named after Kirov (historical name is Vyatka). Even in Ukraine there is still a village in Chernovitskaya region named after Stalin to this day (Stal'novtsy). I doubt it's because of any special sympathies on the parts of the locals to Stalin specifically. And names often take on a life of their own disconnected from the source. Attempts return the historic name of Vyatka (one that reoccurs in many parts of Russian history) to Kirov were made repeatedly but the locals were against it, not necessarily out of admiration for Kirov but moreso because it was a name they grew up with.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The name is accurate. Even the band is still called Leningrad.

I suspect they kept the name out of sheer inertia. After the fall of the Union the only places that got renamed back to old names were ones that people cared about or were symbolic. Lots of little spots remain with their Soviet-era names. And the names aren't always ideological in nature. For example Novosibirsk is not named after any Soviet leader, however the name was given in the Soviet era. The town was originally called Novonikolaevsk. Volgograd used to be Stalingrad but before that it was called Tsaritsyn (literally Tsar's Town). Nobody is trying to bring that name back. Krasnodar used to be called Yekaterinodar. Ulyanovsk, former Simbirsk, is still named after Lenin and Kirov is still named after Kirov (historical name is Vyatka). Even in Ukraine there is still a village in Chernovitskaya region named after Stalin to this day (Stal'novtsy). I doubt it's because of any special sympathies on the parts of the locals to Stalin specifically. And names often take on a life of their own disconnected from the source. Attempts return the historic name of Vyatka (one that reoccurs in many parts of Russian history) to Kirov were made repeatedly but the locals were against it, not necessarily out of admiration for Kirov but moreso because it was a name they grew up with.
Yep, location names can be important to people, especially if it's an area where they grew up. Emotive attachments. Changing location names can be something that is fraught with a lot of risk because of that emotional attachment. People can get very upset and irrational about it.

Here in NZ, we come across that quite often when names of places are being returned to their original names. Even a change in spelling has cause great upset. Wanganui's change to Whanganui caused great upset amongst the non Māori population, even though it was to correct a spelling mistake from the 19th Century. The world didn't end, and the sun didn't stop in the sky when the Geographic Board approved the change. There will be screams from the top of the mountains to the bottom of the fiords if there is ever a definitive proposal to change NZ's name to Aotearoa (it's traditional / Māori name). That will cause great gnashing of teeth, tearing of hair, and rendering of cloth amongst some of NZ's white population.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Saw in the RU news today and remembered after reading the last few posts. Since the subject was brought up (via Google translate):

The authorities of Ukrainian Pavlograd (Dnipropetrovsk region) at the session of the city council refused to rename it, according to the Telegram channel of the local mayor's office.

As the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Roman Kaptelov said, now is not the right time to rename the city.

According to the conclusion of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory, the name of the city is subject to the legislation on so-called decolonization, as it is associated with the name of Emperor Paul the First.



Post-Soviet space is pretty intense in renaming basically everything. Cities that didn’t exist until 50-60’s are renamed to their “historical” names. Some renamed, then renamed again, and again: for example, Tselinograd became Akmola became Astana became Nur-Sultan became Astana. Someone who lived in Kazakhstan a couple of decades ago would not be able to explain to the cab driver where they need to get today, for example; the same is true for most other places in the Post-Soviet Asia, as well as other places.


On the other subject, the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate posted that it was allegedly their team that destroyed one of the Russian TU-22s and damaged two others a while back. One can read about it on the agency’s website (in Ukrainian, but that Dmitri guy on Twitter (WarTranslated?) had a tweet in English about it if someone is interested in that instead):


The obituary begins with (via Google translate):

To destroy Russian bombers, Ukrainian scouts walked more than 600 kilometres on enemy territory.

It could very well be that I am missing something, but why would they have to walk 600 km? Literally walk on foot (it says so in Ukrainian).
 

Fredled

Active Member
...why would they have to walk 600 km? Literally walk on foot (it says so in Ukrainian).
I was often thinking about how they operate deep into Russian territory. Walking 600 km would be extremely difficult. Yet, using any form of transportation would expose you to random check by the police or the military. If you travel a few hundreds km by train, road or bus, you are almost sure to have your document checked by a patrol at least once, not counting every time you board a public transportation. Since the beginning of the full scale war, Russians need a pass to move to or from certain regions inside their own country. Men of military age have to request an authorisation to leave their own town or municipality (when they have to travel some distance) and have to give a valid justification for their trip.
The closer to a military base the higher the risk. They would need very good forged documents, good informations about local areas and police habits, and be able to speak without noticeable Ukrainian accent (even the so-called ethnic Russians from Ukraine would be immediately recognised as Ukrainians).

So it's not totally crazy that they choose to go on foot and sleep in the forest. Thought I imagine they buy their food locally because carrying food for one month is not possible.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The name is accurate. Even the band is still called Leningrad.

I suspect they kept the name out of sheer inertia. After the fall of the Union the only places that got renamed back to old names were ones that people cared about or were symbolic. Lots of little spots remain with their Soviet-era names. And the names aren't always ideological in nature. For example Novosibirsk is not named after any Soviet leader, however the name was given in the Soviet era. The town was originally called Novonikolaevsk. Volgograd used to be Stalingrad but before that it was called Tsaritsyn (literally Tsar's Town). Nobody is trying to bring that name back. Krasnodar used to be called Yekaterinodar. Ulyanovsk, former Simbirsk, is still named after Lenin and Kirov is still named after Kirov (historical name is Vyatka). Even in Ukraine there is still a village in Chernovitskaya region named after Stalin to this day (Stal'novtsy). I doubt it's because of any special sympathies on the parts of the locals to Stalin specifically. And names often take on a life of their own disconnected from the source. Attempts return the historic name of Vyatka (one that reoccurs in many parts of Russian history) to Kirov were made repeatedly but the locals were against it, not necessarily out of admiration for Kirov but moreso because it was a name they grew up with.
I visited Leningrad when it was in the USSR.

I understand the lack of interest in returning to Tsarist names, but I regret Simbirsk & Vyatka. I like names which go back a long way. My home town, for instance, is recorded in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle, & I wouldn't want to lose that connection.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Ukraine had inititally claimed that they had shot down a Il-76 carrying S-300 missiles, but now they seem to be backtracking in terms of resposnisbility for the shootdown.


Normally I dont believe Russian sources, but they are usually very slow when it comes to news where they lose large asseets, but this time, they confirmed immediately, and Ukraine seemingly also confirmed thata Pow exhcange was supposed to happen.

Still waiting for further confirmation from the sources.
 

Fredled

Active Member
The claim by the Russians that Ukrainians killed intentionally their own POW's by shooting dow this plane is ridiculous. It discredits them, as if they needed to be discredited even more.
If there were really 75 Ukrainian POW's on board and if the Ukrainians really shot it down, then it was a tragic accident.

It's also possible that the Russians said that POW's were on board but Ukrainians knew it was not true. But this is unlikely because Ukrainians won't take the risk of making such mistake at the eve of a POW exchange. The claim by the Ukrainians that it was carrying S300 missiles is also weird. Do they seriously transport S300 missile by plane?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It was almost certainly a shootdown. The fuselage looks shredded, similar to what the impact of a SAMs elements would be. The mid-way change of statements by Ukraine is comically ineffective completely giving it away.

 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
At the moment I have no set thoughts on it however surfing the net a number of peoples have claimed its flight path had it flying from Iran and landing at Belgorod, before taking off again, is this correct or false? If correct why would you load POW's at belgorod if they are to be exchanged ....
 

Redshift

Active Member
At the moment I have no set thoughts on it however surfing the net a number of peoples have claimed its flight path had it flying from Iran and landing at Belgorod, before taking off again, is this correct or false? If correct why would you load POW's at belgorod if they are to be exchanged ....
I don't know much about the guy that made this video, has anyone else geolocated the IL 76 from the point of view of the person filming it?


The comments on the "Passenger list" are interesting but is it a real piece of evidence presented by the Russians or not?

He talks about the use of the word "were" , but I do know that Russian English auto translates (personal experience,) can get things horribly wrong.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
In a statement to the UN, Ambassador James Kariuki of the UK stated that the the war in Ukraine benefits no one. The only way Russia can get anything out of this war is to prevail in keeping what it has gained so far. Their ability to prevail is debatable in the extreme, and even if they do, it would take them many years to break even.


With Finland, and the eventual addition of Sweden joining NATO the enclave of Kaliningrad is becoming more difficult to hang onto. In addition the fleet there has become more vulnerable. Now only Orbon stands in the way of Sweden joining. There are rumors of a possible Referendum in Kaliningrad. The heavy military presence in the area is bound to make the population nervous with high friction between NATO and Russia since the enclave would be a primary target. With the possibility of losing this outpost they really need to hang onto Crimea.


In spite of the brave front put on by the Kremlin, Russia is feeling the expenditures, and sanctions. They have dipped into their gold reserves and made budget cuts in areas that can ill afford it.



The infrastructure in Russia has long needed upgrades, and Ukraine's growing ability for deep strikes is further stressed this area. They are unable to quickly finish this war, while the fabric of society is starting to fray despite, and partially because of repression. The first link is reported to be a map from Rybar on sites affected.




https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749347263388750162

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1749443242473533821?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749778109258231962

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1748315837260333178

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1746978475162886156?s=20

This list is not complete, and will continue to grow as long as this war goes on, and neither side is willing to give up. Perhaps this year will see Russia finding their limit, although that would probably take a "Black Swan" moment.
 

Redshift

Active Member
In a statement to the UN, Ambassador James Kariuki of the UK stated that the the war in Ukraine benefits no one. The only way Russia can get anything out of this war is to prevail in keeping what it has gained so far. Their ability to prevail is debatable in the extreme, and even if they do, it would take them many years to break even.


With Finland, and the eventual addition of Sweden joining NATO the enclave of Kaliningrad is becoming more difficult to hang onto. In addition the fleet there has become more vulnerable. Now only Orbon stands in the way of Sweden joining. There are rumors of a possible Referendum in Kaliningrad. The heavy military presence in the area is bound to make the population nervous with high friction between NATO and Russia since the enclave would be a primary target. With the possibility of losing this outpost they really need to hang onto Crimea.


In spite of the brave front put on by the Kremlin, Russia is feeling the expenditures, and sanctions. They have dipped into their gold reserves and made budget cuts in areas that can ill afford it.



The infrastructure in Russia has long needed upgrades, and Ukraine's growing ability for deep strikes is further stressed this area. They are unable to quickly finish this war, while the fabric of society is starting to fray despite, and partially because of repression. The first link is reported to be a map from Rybar on sites affected.




https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749347263388750162

https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1749443242473533821?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749778109258231962

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1748315837260333178

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1746978475162886156?s=20

This list is not complete, and will continue to grow as long as this war goes on, and neither side is willing to give up. Perhaps this year will see Russia finding their limit, although that would probably take a "Black Swan" moment.
Isn't the population of Kaliningrad entirely Russian these days?
 

Fredled

Active Member
Larry_L said:
With Finland, and the eventual addition of Sweden joining NATO the enclave of Kaliningrad is becoming more difficult to hang onto. In addition the fleet there has become more vulnerable. Now only Orban stands in the way of Sweden joining. There are rumours of a possible Referendum in Kaliningrad. The heavy military presence in the area is bound to make the population nervous with high friction between NATO and Russia since the enclave would be a primary target. With the possibility of losing this outpost they really need to hang onto Crimea.
Finland and Sweden joining NATO doesn't change anything for Kaliningrad. Anyone who think that Russia could lose Kaliningrad should go there and have a look at reality.
This is a naval base and a nuclear warhead missiles launch site. There won;t be any referendum there anytime soon.

In the meantime: Lithuania has (or is planning to - I should check) stopped allowing the train link between Russia to Kaliningrad to operate. At the beginning of the invasion, Lithuanians already wanted to close the railway. Then the EU stated that according to the sanction plan, they didn't have to do that. The EU didn't want an escalation of the conflict because of that.
Now the Lithuanians are on it again. Russia has already replied that, in this case, Lithuania will have to be invaded to restore the rail link.
They even added that it will be very easy because most of the people there will agree to join Russia, that they can count on all the Russian speakers living there. And that Latvia will follow. This makes my eyes rolls because I live there. LOL. :dazed:

Orban said that he agreed with Sweden joining NATO and will ask the parliament to vote it.

Larry_L said:
Perhaps this year will see Russia finding their limit, although that would probably take a "Black Swan" moment.
The situation is worsening in Russia, and people are fed up. New candidate Nadiezhdin got 100 000 signature in a matter of hour thanks to a few anti-war comments.
It's one more sign that Russians start to think in the right direction.
But make no mistake, the dictature is still solid.
 

Fredled

Active Member
At the moment I have no set thoughts on it however surfing the net a number of peoples have claimed its flight path had it flying from Iran and landing at Belgorod, before taking off again, is this correct or false? If correct why would you load POW's at belgorod if they are to be exchanged ....
Still no official confirmation about it. But if true, they would have said it. Instead they said that the plane was carrying S300's. Meaning the plane was about to land. I don't believe any version. It's fairly possible that Ukes shot down the IL76 by mistake.
 
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