The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

swerve

Super Moderator
I note that the UK's been shipping old ASRAAMs (being replaced in the UK by new ones) mounted on Supacats (relatively cheap vehicles) to Ukraine. Gross overkill for shooting down ultra-cheap drones, but given that they're almost time-expired, it's hard to say they're a waste of money against almost any target.

There should be more of that. Any old MANPADS or other old AA weapons which don't need a lot of expensive backup which are sitting in storage should be shipped to Ukraine ASAP.

The old Gepards seem to be doing OK against UAVs. If there are any more in store, or equivalent kit, again - ship 'em!
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article suggests anti missile capability ,if the Skynex provided includes 4 unmanned guns it has the potential to be useful
 

Fredled

Active Member
I note that the UK's been shipping old ASRAAMs (being replaced in the UK by new ones) mounted on Supacats (relatively cheap vehicles) to Ukraine. Gross overkill for shooting down ultra-cheap drones, but given that they're almost time-expired, it's hard to say they're a waste of money against almost any target.
It doesn't mean you can waste them on small drones. The quantity of AD missiles ready to be fired at any given time is nonetheless limited, no matter how old they are. When the launchers are empty, they are empty!
But of course, the West is sending old stocks that were poised to be disposed and replaced. It happens that it's cheaper to send them to Ukraine than to dismantle and disposed them with respect to environmental and safety norms.
Exception with Germany who was happy to test its new IRIS-T system, not even in use yet by the Bundeswehr. And probably some others who use Ukraine as a test field for new weapons. Data collected in Ukraine are extremely valuable.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
This article suggests anti missile capability ,if the Skynex provided includes 4 unmanned guns it has the potential to be useful
According to this caption in an image from the article:

It is likely composed of 4 guns, a radar, and a C2 - together comprising a system.
$200m is no small change. For that money I'd expect much more capability. Together they can cover 2 small areas only a few square kilometers each.
That money can buy 4 full Iron Dome batteries for example.
While VSHORAD systems are very sophisticated, they too need to maintain some cost proportionality vs other tiers of an AD network.
 

Armchair

Well-Known Member
It doesn't mean you can waste them on small drones. The quantity of AD missiles ready to be fired at any given time is nonetheless limited, no matter how old they are. When the launchers are empty, they are empty!
It is hard to judge how the historical production cost of effectors affects decisions on the ground by either side.
If it does then assuming there are no alternative defences then whether missiles are “wasted” depends on the value of the target protected not just the nominal value of the missile.
If the target to be protected is the launcher itself (again with no other defences) it does not matter if launching empties a launcher that would be destroyed by the drone.
On the other hand, if launching at small drones makes the launcher and its systems more vulnerable to more sophisticated attacks then that is a different tradeoff.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
According to this caption in an image from the article:

It is likely composed of 4 guns, a radar, and a C2 - together comprising a system.
$200m is no small change. For that money I'd expect much more capability. Together they can cover 2 small areas only a few square kilometers each.
That money can buy 4 full Iron Dome batteries for example.
While VSHORAD systems are very sophisticated, they too need to maintain some cost proportionality vs other tiers of an AD network.
Ironically Pantsirs would be a great solutions to Gerans. The SKynex seems too expensive and too overly engineered for threats like Shaheds/Gerans.

SkyGuards are cheaper and already in production, why not go for more of those?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to this caption in an image from the article:

It is likely composed of 4 guns, a radar, and a C2 - together comprising a system.
$200m is no small change. For that money I'd expect much more capability. Together they can cover 2 small areas only a few square kilometers each.
That money can buy 4 full Iron Dome batteries for example.
While VSHORAD systems are very sophisticated, they too need to maintain some cost proportionality vs other tiers of an AD network.
There might be an economics of scale issue. If Germany scaled production to dozens of vehicles per year, I'm sure the unit cost would go down.

It doesn't mean you can waste them on small drones. The quantity of AD missiles ready to be fired at any given time is nonetheless limited, no matter how old they are. When the launchers are empty, they are empty!
But of course, the West is sending old stocks that were poised to be disposed and replaced. It happens that it's cheaper to send them to Ukraine than to dismantle and disposed them with respect to environmental and safety norms.
Exception with Germany who was happy to test its new IRIS-T system, not even in use yet by the Bundeswehr. And probably some others who use Ukraine as a test field for new weapons. Data collected in Ukraine are extremely valuable.
Yes and no. It's another supply of missiles, that can potentially down fast Shaheds while not costing as much as Patriots or IRIS-Ts.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
It does though suggest the capability of shooting down cruise missiles more than just Shaheds , which may be useful against such in terminal phase of flight
 

Fredled

Active Member
Oerlinkon/Skynex's advantage is to fire at several targets in a very short time, with sub-munition shells exploding at a distance programmed by software as the gun points to the target. Now let's compare with so called much cheaper rocket systems. An Oerlikon gun can easily destroy 10 drones approaching at the same time, and still have enough ammos to deal with several waves of drone attacks immediately after that, without supervision. A rocket launcher can fire only 4 rockets at a time, then has to be reloaded. It means that you need several launchers. This increase logistic hurdles, the number of men mobilised for this task, and the system vulnerability. All these rockets can be hit and explode.

I don't think it cost $200M per unit. Once the development cost is behind, it becomes affordable.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Great news from the UK: a new, large, support package was announced by the UK PM Mr. Sunak during a surprise visit in Kyev. £2.5 Bn in military aid during 2024-2025 that includes long-range missiles, air defense, artillery ammo, and maritime security support. About £200m will also be spent to procure and produce thousands of drones. Russia attacks 'arrogant British' after Sunak visits Ukraine to announce new aid | UK News | Sky News

This is excellent news. Several European countries have now committed to substantial support for 2024 and beyond. Let's hope they can speed up deliveries!
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Pretty good thread on twitter about the Russian railroad construction efforts behind the frontline. Looks like they are pretty busy. Unrolled here for those who do not have Twitter:


Maybe Feanor has some good info to add here?
 

Fredled

Active Member
Pretty good thread on twitter about the Russian railroad construction efforts behind the frontline. Looks like they are pretty busy. Unrolled here for those who do not have Twitter:


Maybe Feanor has some good info to add here?
A few days ago the Ukrainians had destroyed a bridge in construction on this line, with some cruise missiles.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Not a whole lot has happened. There have been minor Russian advances in multiple areas, including creeping gains around Avdeevka, a slight move forward towards Terny, some gains in the woods west of Kremennaya, a decent gain of ground (but no population centers) in the Seversk salient, continued creeping envelopment of Novomihailovka, a move westward out of Mar'inka, and ground regained in the Rabotino salient. Noteworthy is that Ukraine has managed to thwart Russia's advances on Stepovoe with reinforcements and counter-attacks, and have either halted Russian advances in Sin'kovka, or even pushed them out of the outskirt they were holding.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces have failed in all attemps to seize Sinkovka and now appear to have been pushed back from the village. Rumors swirl about West MD incompetence being to blame.


Russia made considerable gains at Terny prompting the deployment of Ukrainian reinforcements. However, either Russia's advance at Terny wasn't as significant as initially reported or Ukraine counter-attacked. Either way, it appears some ground initially marked as a Russian advance is in Ukrainian hands.


An interesting piece of analysis that shows Russia's UPMK module is not as accurate as desired. Several of them missed a bridge, and a KH-38ML had to be used to finish the job.


A Leo-2A5 knocked out in the woods of Kremennaya.


3 Leo-2s getting hit by Russian loitering munitions on the Oskol front.


More footage of Ukrainian Archers near Kremennaya.


Seversk Salient.

This area hasn't been active in a long time. Russian forces have made considerable gains in the south-eastern section of it, posing a threat to the village of Veseloe. Presumably the intent is to come at the village from the north-east, forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw. Russian forces also gained some ground around Spornoe, but after initial moves that looked like they were aiming to seize the village, they withdrew from it's southern outskirts. As far as I can tell Russian forces hold ruined storage faclities in the south of Spornoe, but the two residential areas are both under Ukrainian control.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian offensive efforts here are mostly halted. Russia has gained some ground on the heights west of Klescheevka, but they remain contested. Russian forces have also made minor gains around Kurdyumovka. Around Bogdanovka Russian forces are enveloping the village from the west, due to the village itself being in a low area.


Russia appears to have struck a HIMARS near Konstantinovka, though it's hard to be sure the vehicle was destroyed.


Avdeevka.


Russian forces in this area are halted south and north-west of the town and even lost a couple of forward positions on each flank. They're still slowly pushing northward towards the Zarya neighborhood of cottages, and presumably afterwards towards Ocheretino. They're also gaining ground street by street in the north-eastern suburb of Avdeevka. Last but not least Russian forces have resumed advances in Pervomayskoe, after initially being pushed back there by a Ukrainian counter-attack. As it stands Russian forces hold the northern side of the ponds there, making it easier to push westward through the village.


A Bradley gets hit by a Lancet near Stepovoe. Fighting continues around this village, and casualties are mounting though Russia is certainly losing more.


A Russian T-80BVM mod'23 with the new Krysha roof cage, and Saniya EW station operating near Avdeevka. It's one of several EW stations being installed on Russian vehicles.


Mar'inka.

Russian forces are pushing west and north-west out of Mar'inka and have entered Georgievka, the next village over. There is a dominating height north of the village, and Russian forces are clearly planning to assault it.


Novomihailovka.

Russian forces continue a slow envelopment from the south, despite some Ukrainian counter-attacks. Ukrainian forces have also pulled back somewhat in the north-east, likely due to Russian control of dominating heights. In the north Ukrainian strong points at Pobeda hold, and bar further advances.


Ukrainian T-64BV near Novomihailovka gets hit, after which the commander bails out. The tank then hits a landmine.


Russian FAB strikes at Novomihailovka.


A massive explosion of a Russian MT-LB based VBIED. It's unclear if the intent was to strike Ukrainian positions or make a hole in a minefield.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye.

Russian forces are creeping forward in both the old Vremyevskiy bulge, and the Rabotino salient. Nonetheless all the gains are minimal. It's not clear that any major offensive effort is taking place. Rather this seems to be the consequences of elite Ukrainain units being sent elsewhere.


Russian forces advancing near Rabotino are capturing areas where Ukrainian vehicles were knocked out. Russia has now captured some Leo-2A4s, though it remains to be seen whether Russia can haul them away, since this is still very close to the front.


Ukrainian UAVs made out of spare materials have been spotted in Zaporozhye, suggesting a shortage of standard produced UAVs.


Dnepr Front.

Russian forces have gained some ground in Krynki. Ukraine is still funnelling troops into this foothold, though their casualties are horrendous and it's unclear what possible purpose this effort could serve at this point.


Footage of the apocalyptic landscape at Krynki.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Su-25 downed in Kherson region. Note the type is likely the least valuable combat jet Ukraine operates.


Earlier a video identified a destroyed Ukrainian vehicle in Kherson as a Stryker. A closer look reveals it to be a Canadian Super Bison. It was taken out by a loitering munition.


Ukrainian Strela-10 on the right shore of the Dnepr getting hit. Note the red missile containers, these are the re-exported Jordanian missiles. Also we have a Buk, M109, and a 2S1 getting hit in the same area. Russian efforts to strike Ukrainian targets supporting the cross-river operations continue.


Russia hit two IRIS-T TELs in Kherson region but it's not clear if they are real or decoys.


A Russian SRBM strike misses a Ukrainian IRIS-T by ~30m in Kherson region. Note it's possible the shrapnel still damaged something, but it's quite a miss.


Belgorod.

It appears Ukraine has tried to hit Belgorod with more MLRS strikes, but they were intercepted. It is claimed based on fragments recovered that Czech Vampir Grad variants are being used along with Ol'kha and Tochka munitions.


Russia has begun installing shelters and setting up protection around public transportation stops in Belgorod. These obviously aren't designed to take a direct hit but offer protection from sharpnel.


Russia is reportedly relocating school children out of Belgorod to summer camp facilities elsewhere for safety reasons.


Russian MChS evacuating wounded from Belgorod.


Russian Strikes.

A look at Russian strikes on Kiev. Russian hit the Kvazar factory, the Artem factory, a factory in Vishneviy, Mayak factory, a cement factory, the M-Tac uniform factory, and the Radio measurement plant. Note many of these are well known staples of the Ukrainian defense industry. The cement factory is a bit of a mystery, but it's quite likely the facilities were repurposed for something defense-related. This is a stark contrast to the strikes on Belgorod using MLRS packets against a dense built-up urban area.


The Mikropribor plant was hit by a Kinzhal but it failed to detonate and was subsequently dug out of the ground by Ukraine.


There are reports that a Ukrainian UAV manufacturing facility in Kiev was also hit.


In Sumy Russia hit a factory near Shostka that produces detonators and primers for munitions.


Russia also struck targets in Kharkov. While the target is unclear we have secondary detonations.


Evidence of Russia using a jet-engine Shahed variant has emerged.


Ukrainian sources confirming that Russian strikes hit a missile manufacturing facility.


Videos of the Russian Kinzhal strike in Kiev recently provide some confirmation of what has been rumored for some time. The Kinzhal drops to ~3M on the last portion of it's trajectory, presumably making it possible to use it's guidance system, and of course making it possible to intercept.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting tidbits.

Russia has apparently deployed a Lancet variant with thermals. A set of videos have emerged showing their use. Continuing development of these munitions is to be expected and Russia clearly can produce thermals domestically.


Russia deployed a brand new Yastreb-AV counter-battery radar to Ukraine where it was promptly destroyed by a Ukrainian strike.


In their recent unmanned boat attacks on Crimea, Ukraine used a new variant with rockets mounted on them.


A Ukrainian CV-90 getting hit, I suspect near Kremennaya. Note this is probably the most modern IFV Ukraine has in service.


Reportedly Ukraine's Lt. General Pavlovich, Air Force, died recently. Circumstances are unclear. Reportedly he was involved in training Ukrainian pilots.


The series of funerals of Ukrainian pilots continues with two other pilots being buried, one a MiG-29 pilot. This comes a week after Russian claims that they shot down multiple jets includign a MiG-29s recently.


Reportedly the mass surrender of an entire Ukrainian platoon.


Interesting look at two damaged Russian T-72B3s mod'22s surviving RPG hits due to ERA. Reportedly these were FPV drones carrying RPGs. Despite the advantages offered by things like Javelins and NLAWs, even fairly traditional ERA protection remains relevant.


A couple of Russian Pantsyrs in the war zone, stuck in the ice.


Russian TOS-1A with a RP-377UVM1L anti-UAV EW.


A Russian MT-LB column. Note they're all up-gunned and up-armored. They're clearly being used as ersatz-IFVs.


Russian MT-LB carrying an RBU depth charge launcher being used as an erzats MLRS.


Russian 2M-3M MT-LB variant has been sighted again, with a roof cage too. This is possibly Russia's 39th Motor-Rifles.


A Russian T-55 with it's roof cage.


Russian CBRN recon vehicle on BTR-80 chassis with a roof cage. It's possible that it's being used as a regular APC. And a BTR-82A with a massive cage set up that cannot possibly be practical...


A Russian T-90M with an unspecified EW station on it, in addition to the ERA and roof cage.


An updated ZSA-T Linza MEDEVAC MRAP in Russian service with the 155th Marines.


A Russian Z-STS armored truck in the war. The type was put into production as part of the current war, but after some fairly large initial quantity, there have been no news on further deliveries. This doesn't mean they aren't taking place, but it's not clear.


Russian, Iranian, and DPRK 122mm shells in Russian service.


Reportedly Syrians and Egyptians in Moscow enlisting in the Russian military, and receiving Russian citizenship.


A Somalian, Indian, and Syrian, in Russian military service, already near the front. If you're wondering what's going on in the video, they're being thanked for volunteering to defend Russia and liberate Russian lands, and being gifted tactical gloves.


Chinese service members have shown up in Russian service, one of them was recently killed.


Russia is reporting 640k total contract service members, and 40k BARS service members that took part in the war, 7k of them still there.


An up-armored VAB in Ukrainian service.


Allegedly Ukrainian MT-LB with a BTR-60 turret.


A Ukrainain M1 with ERA sideskirts. Note the type has yet to see combat, and only a single btln was supplied to Ukraine.


Ukraine's 59th Motorized bde is riding Belgian Leo-1A5s. While better then nothing, they're going to be in for trouble if they run into anything remotely modern. I suspect we will see them uparmored with K1, and anything else Ukraine can get.


Another Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdana variant has shown up.


Ex-Yugoslav M-80 with a roof cage in Ukrainian service.


Ukrainian territorial defense team with a Chinese DShK clone, and Czech AK clones for rifles. Presumably this is an air defense detachment. But it's still noteworthy that they have no body armor or tactical rigs.


Ukrainian forces using a Kub-M2 SAM. This is the predecessor to the Buk, using a similar architecture and compatible missiles.


It appears Indian 155mm shells have shown up in Ukraine. India is currently investigating how this happened.


Pakistani 125m shells have also shown up in Ukraine.


Ukraine has begun the construction of massive defense lines in preparation for a strategic defense. This includes buried bunkers.


Ukraine's former attorney general Lutsenko recently claimed that Ukraine has lost 500k killed and heavily wounded in the current war. He mentions these as "безвозвратные потери" meaning service members won't be returning to service even if they survive.


Ukraine has tightened mobilization efforts and has put new rules into place to make it easier to go after draft dodgers. As a result many Ukrainians are trying to leave. Meanwhile checkpoints have been set up around Kiev region to hand out draft notices. This has also sparked some protests from the families of already mobilized personnel. Ukrainian abroad are rushing to renew their documents as moving forward this will be impossible if one is dodging the mobilization.

 

Milne Bay

Active Member
Putting this here as unverified but interesting from several points of view.
Significant loss - if true
And what shot them down? Another interesting question
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Putting this here as unverified but interesting from several points of view.
Significant loss - if true
And what shot them down? Another interesting question
Rumour mill is going crazy on this. some are syaing that it was shot down by Russia's own AD. Which is believable but beyond pathetic if that actually happened.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Il-22 landed already, damaged in some sort of incident but clearly did not crash. No word on the A-50. One other possibility nobody seems to be discussing is a collision.


EDIT: According to Military Observer, the A-50 is A-50U RF-50601. Also the Il-22 allegedly landed at a civilian airfield in an emergency landing which led to their radio comms getting leaked.

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Is it just me or the reported percentage of intercepted Russian drones and missiles dropped significantly in the past couple of months or so? If it isn’t just me, what are the thoughts on the reasons for the reduction in intercept rates? Scarcity of resources? Russians doing something different?

Most (if not all) analysts and western governments officials predicted more and greater intensity strikes on the critical infrastructure this winter that Russians concentrated on last year, but it appears that Russia is avoiding it for the most part and puts most of the effort into striking manufacturing facilities, whether military or otherwise. What are the thoughts on this? Is this change in strategy the cause of lower interception rates due to the location of the Ukrainian air defences?
 
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