The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

Allow me to distract us from the current arguments....

I find it curious that UKR seems to be concentration its anti-naval campaign against RU amphibious shipping and transport units. There is no danger of a RU amphib strike. I would see the wisdom in these targets if the Kerch bridge was out of commission, but there hasnt been a serious attempt on the bridge in some time.

 

[John Fedup]

Allow me to distract us from the current arguments....

I find it curious that UKR seems to be concentration its anti-naval campaign against RU amphibious shipping and transport units. There is no danger of a RU amphib strike. I would see the wisdom in these targets if the Kerch bridge was out of commission, but there hasnt been a serious attempt on the bridge in some time.

Targets of opportunity that may be a potential threat later on so one might as well take the shot. Destroying a naval vessel is a bigger moral booster than a building being used by Russian forces. As for the wisdom of this approach, perhaps debatable.

 

[vikingatespam]

Targets of opportunity that may be a potential threat later on so one might as well take the shot. Destroying a naval vessel is a bigger moral booster than a building being used by Russian forces. As for the wisdom of this approach, perhaps debatable.

I would agree the practice is debatable as to its value, given the limited stock of SS missiles. I suspect that if UKR wanted to, they could render the Kerch bridge largely unusable if they volleyed a large number of SS/Neptune/atacms/whatever, and decoy missiles. That would be a pretty big morale boost, but given inability to close the land routes, may not net them much.

 

[John Fedup]

I would agree the practice is debatable as to its value, given the limited stock of SS missiles. I suspect that if UKR wanted to, they could render the Kerch bridge largely unusable if they volleyed a large number of SS/Neptune/atacms/whatever, and decoy missiles. That would be a pretty big morale boost, but given inability to close the land routes, may not net them much.

Insufficient SS missiles with extended range is a problem for Ukraine. If Ukraine could obtain these missiles it might make Russia reluctant to fire theirs into Ukrainian cities. Sadly the West won’t supply them until it is too late.

 

[swerve]

On the one hand we don't know the specifications of the flares, on the other hand we have Ukraine using quite a bit of older kit. I suspect it has some relevance.

I'm sure they had a lot of old missiles at the start of the war, & I know they were given some early on (e.g. at least 2000 ex-DDR MANPADS, lightly refurbished by Germany), but I'd expect them to have been used up.

 

[hauritz]

Insufficient SS missiles with extended range is a problem for Ukraine. If Ukraine could obtain these missiles it might make Russia reluctant to fire theirs into Ukrainian cities. Sadly the West won’t supply them until it is too late.

It makes sense not supplying these weapons. While they are obviously offensive weapons they are also a deterrent. The best way to bring this war to a conclusion is to make the price of continuing the war too high.

 

[Redlands18]

There are at least two dozen of different 155mm shells. The most advanced being closer to a guided missile than a shell and its costs is in the 5 digits. The Excalibur costs over $60,000 and may not even be the most expensive one.
The West is favouring high precision shells because it's more effective and reduce loads om logistic.

Israel – 155mm Artillery Ammunition | Defense Security Cooperation Agency (dsca.mil)
The US has cleared an emergency FMS sale of 155mm ammo to Israel and this gives a good idea of the cost and also a reminder Ukraine is not the only nation currently in need of ammunition. Total cost has increased from $97B to $147m USD for.
4792 rounds of M107 155mm ammunition (MDE)
52,229 rounds of M795 155mm ammunition (non MDE)
30,000 M4 propelling charges

 

[swerve]

There're no OSINT rate whether from Russian and Ukrainian/West source that can shown reliable comparison rate in my opinion. However if Western Hardware doing much better attrition rate against Russian ones in Ukrainian hand, they should be in sea of azov by now. Instead they are basically bog down and in some area begin loosing what they have regain in the offensive.

That's the perspective I believe many outside collective West media or online forums see. That's not the perspective from people that have no information.

Look at the numbers. Western countries have given far smaller numbers of just about everything than Russia owns, & has been using. We've never had the raw numbers of tanks, artillery pieces, SAMs etc. that the USSR had & Russia now has. We've relied on quality & airpower - & the Ukrainians have received no western combat aircraft, & only a handful of pre-1990 export model MiG-29s.

Either the western weapons in Ukrainian hands have had much, much lower attrition rates than Russia's weapons or Russia would not only still be holding Kherson, but would have taken Mykolaiv & Odesa by now. Ukrainians express immense gratitude for western artillery, for instance, saying that it's more accurate than their ex-Soviet guns, & is enabling them to hold their own against Russian artillery. And artillery is probably where Russia has its biggest numerical superiority over Ukraine, especially western guns. Look at the total numbers made!

Russia has claimed to have destroyed western weapons Ukraine's never had, such as F-16. It has claimed to have destroyed weapons that had not been delivered, & when they have been, to have destroyed more than Ukraine has ever owned. Its claims are meant for those who accept uncritically what Russia says, not those who care about truth.

 

[Morgo]

Believing that having perspective that not in line with Western believe not the same with deriding and condescending the West. However non western perspective more and more not always in line with the West, and that's not the same with attacking West.

My comments to your English clearly sarcastic as I now you are Native English speakers. However your comments clearly have position of negativity for any Non Western perspective, that not in line with what your believe Western value. All my post only saying that increasing Non Western perspective in media and on-line forums believe Western and Russian hardware face similar attrition rate in this war. As the nature of this war already an attrition war toward all hardware no matter it is originated. If that's in your opinion deriding Western Technology as hurt Western superiority toward anything Russia, then it is seems something already clouding your judgment.

I don’t think it’s that at all. My view is that most of the members of these forums place a very high premium on facts backed up by third party evidence vs subjective opinions. Subjective opinions are fine, as long as they are clearly identified as such.

On this particular topic, you’ve made a definitive statement - that Western and Russian equipment are suffering similar loss rates - and have provided no independent evidence for these claims. If you do have evidence I think it’d be of great interest to many members to understand.

If you don’t have evidence and this is your opinion or the opinion of others (which I think you’ve now clarified is the case) this is perfectly fine as long as you make it clear that this is the case. And links to the non Western sources you’ve referenced would be appreciated.

 

[John Fedup]

It makes sense not supplying these weapons. While they are obviously offensive weapons they are also a deterrent. The best way to bring this war to a conclusion is to make the price of continuing the war too high.

How is Ukraine having the ability to fire back not a deterrent?

 

[Redlands18]

Israel – 155mm Artillery Ammunition | Defense Security Cooperation Agency (dsca.mil)
The US has cleared an emergency FMS sale of 155mm ammo to Israel and this gives a good idea of the cost and also a reminder Ukraine is not the only nation currently in need of ammunition. Total cost has increased from $97B to $147m USD for.
4792 rounds of M107 155mm ammunition (MDE)
52,229 rounds of M795 155mm ammunition (non MDE)
30,000 M4 propelling charges

Edit
$97M not $97B

 

[Ananda]

Barat Mulai Akui Senjata dan Taktik Terbaru Rusia Bikin Runyam Serangan Balik Ukraina

Ukraina dalam serangan baliknya mulai menghadapi hantaman besar-besaran dari pasukan Rusia yang belajar dari blunder-blunder di awal serangan.

www.kompas.tv

Russia destroys Western weapons delivered to Ukraine

Defense Ministry says logistics center near city of Lviv stored weapons delivered to Ukraine from West over past 6 days - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Worse Than WWII Soviet Weapons! Ukrainian Soldiers ‘Lambast’ Another European System For Ineffective Performance

Several European countries have been shipping weaponry to Ukraine to support the country’s resistance against Russian invasion. While most of this weaponry has supported Kyiv’s war effort, some have garnered harsh criticism for their poor performance. In particular, the Mod63 120mm mortar...

www.eurasiantimes.com

If you don’t have evidence and this is your opinion or the opinion of others (which I think you’ve now clarified is the case) this is perfectly fine as long as you make it clear that this is the case. And links to the non Western sources you’ve referenced would be appreciated

Above is just some example from some Asian media on the Western Hardware performance in Ukrainian war. Kompas is actually pro west for pro western consumers in Indonesia. Those are just example increasing perspective in Non Collective West that's:

• The Western hardware is not the Uber weapon that's going to change the Ukrainian fortune and defeat Russia as previously picture by Western Pundits,
• The Russian hardware is not crap as previously picture by Western media and analysts. As they can stop Western Hardwares.

Again it is the perspective that increasingly come out from Non Collective West media and public (that's can be shown) in the tone of their forums and online opinions. Nothing in here talking about the demining quality of Western Tech, however the nature of the war is already attrition war that's turn the war in to attrition war on any hardware no matter the origin.

I keep putting this repeatedly on my posts. This is not subjective opinion from me, but perspective that increasingly come out in parts of Non West audiences. I do hope I don't have to repeat it again. Seems some in here simply doesn't want to accept Non Western perspective that's not in line with their Western view. That's too bad.

Either the western weapons in Ukrainian hands have had much, much lower attrition rates than Russia's weapons or Russia would not only still be holding Kherson, but would have taken Mykolaiv & Odesa by now.

Well that's work both way (at least in Non Western perspective), as if they are really much lower attrition rate then Russian weapons, the counter offensive should already bring Ukrainian back to the coast of sea of azov. As this is part of the original intention of the counter offensive as Western sources already put.

Its claims are meant for those who accept uncritically what Russia says, not those who care about truth.

There are those who only want to accept Russian says and those who want to accept only Ukrainian/Western says. However for increasingly Non Western audiences, is increasingly looking on both sides media and pundits as bias. Thus just looking to real progress in the ground to come out on their own perspective. Most are see this war are attrition war that bog down progress on each sides, and their hardwares (no matter where the origins) not change much the situation.

This is where my original position that seems becoming debates. Increasingly those in Non West media and public segments, who originally more incline to Russian hardware, back to their possitive views. Mostly due the war basically bog down any hardwares progress.

Doesn't mean those segments are going to stop Non West to buy Western Hardware or Russian Hardware going to be regain back their previous market share. More to inclination that Russian hardwares is not crap as Western pundits (or Pro Western sides) try to put in the beginning of this war.

 

[Larry_L]

An overview from Tom Cooper on Air Defense that goes into some detail. There are links to dig deeper into history and capabilities. If you do not have the time or inclination for all of the links the good stuff starts in Assault mode 3. I learned quite a bit, since previously all the AD nomenclature was so much alphabet soup for me.

Ukraine War, 29 December 2023: Start of the Winter Missile Campaign

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

 

[hauritz]

How is Ukraine having the ability to fire back not a deterrent?

Actually I mistyped. I meant to write “ it makes NO sense not supplying these weapons.”

 

[seaspear]

@Ananda I don't believe anyone on this forum has suggested that "Western" weapons are indestructible, mines and artillery have shown this previously , The west provided Ukraine with what it had to spare some systems decades old such as the Gepards which were due for decommissioning and have been found useful now for shooting down drones, even early Leopard ones can have a use ,what has been shown is that the Russian tanks with auto loaders not separating its ammunition from crew and in a vulnerable spot when hit causes high casualties to crew as well as destruction of tank unlike a western tank where tank is out of action but crew survive .Russia is now in the position of pressing into service tanks and artillery systems from the 1950,s ,what does that suggest for the fate of previously deployed equipment ,footage shown of Ukrainian armoured vehicles that have been badly damaged proves nothing its not known from this film footage if they are being gathered prior to repair assessments. Anyone can get online and view the destruction of particular targets shown by bloggers of either side I would hope for a source that provides the impartial losses of both sides like Orynx that has tried to be unbiased in quantitively details of losses of both sides. I abhor the violence in this war and view much of it fueled by many of the propositions that came from Nazi Germany that I believed ironically used by President Putin and his party

 

[Ananda]

@seaspear let me put it again the essence of what I wrote in my posts:

• I wrote the increasing perspective of Non Western media and forums of Russian Hardware is not crap and Western Hardware is not Uber Hardware that's going to be game changer as some Western pundits wrote. Nothing I have ever mention that opinions are from this forum.
• I don't put links for prove of "similar rate" Attrition as again the similar rate is more or less the perspective the Non Westerers increasingly see on performance of hardwares in this war.

Somehow that perspective that increasingly coming from Non Western media and forums become (by some in here) as my 'subjective opinion'. I don't know whether it is my English, or other English that make some believe Non Western Perspective become my Subjective Opinions. If don't like that perspective, that's acceptable. However doesn't mean the Non Western media and forums full of gullible ppl that's being dupe by only Russian propaganda.

I have been in this forum quite a long time, and much longer for some that's try to 'educate' me on how this forums work. So please, I know very well on how this forum work.

I can put link to any OSINT source whether Russian, Ukrainian, or Western ones. They will give different numbers, and sorry to say there're not one that really impartial. Impartiality is quite impossible in my opinion on this war, which make many Non Westerers like me that sitting in the fence, has to digest all the sites and make our own perspective base on the progress in the ground.

Ukrainian will depend more and more to Western hardware. Simply because their own hardwares and ex Warsaw Pact hardwares that West send already depleted. However changes of suppliers not become changes in the ground. Like it or not, that's strong indication all sides hardwares no matter what origin, is facing similar attrition. This is something logical that seems some in here can't accept.

West send old items from their reserve wherehouses. Similar thing also done by Russian. This war basically being used to 'spent' older cold war inventories on either sides. Again with not much changes since Russian 'strategic' redeployment from second hal last year. Thus why again increasingly perspective of Non Western audiences that the hardwares from either sides face similar attritions.

That's why increasingly the Non West perspective looking that Russian Hardwares is not as crappy as being potrait by Western media pundits. That perspective that seems getting much arguments from some in this forums. Some can argue West never have build similar level of quantity but more of quality. However if 5 of 10 Western Tanks destroy against 10 of 20 Russian Tanks destroy in this war, sorry mathematically it is similar rate of attrition.

That's example cause each OSINT in this war shown different numbers anyway. Thus back again on; is the ground position move significantly or not? If not, then they are facing bog down in similar attrition situation.

 

[vikingatespam]

On this particular topic, you’ve made a definitive statement - that Western and Russian equipment are suffering similar loss rates - and have provided no independent evidence for these claims. If you do have evidence I think it’d be of great interest to many members to understand.

I think we need to specify what "rate" we are talking about. Tanks/day lost ? Tanks/day/km of front ? We also need to consider that a large imbalance in equipment ratios will also skew loss rates.

 

[swerve]

Barat Mulai Akui Senjata dan Taktik Terbaru Rusia Bikin Runyam Serangan Balik Ukraina

Ukraina dalam serangan baliknya mulai menghadapi hantaman besar-besaran dari pasukan Rusia yang belajar dari blunder-blunder di awal serangan.

www.kompas.tv

Russia destroys Western weapons delivered to Ukraine

Defense Ministry says logistics center near city of Lviv stored weapons delivered to Ukraine from West over past 6 days - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Worse Than WWII Soviet Weapons! Ukrainian Soldiers ‘Lambast’ Another European System For Ineffective Performance

Several European countries have been shipping weaponry to Ukraine to support the country’s resistance against Russian invasion. While most of this weaponry has supported Kyiv’s war effort, some have garnered harsh criticism for their poor performance. In particular, the Mod63 120mm mortar...

www.eurasiantimes.com

Above is just some example from some Asian media on the Western Hardware performance in Ukrainian war. Kompas is actually pro west for pro western consumers in Indonesia. Those are just example increasing perspective in Non Collective West that's:

• The Western hardware is not the Uber weapon that's going to change the Ukrainian fortune and defeat Russia as previously picture by Western Pundits,
• The Russian hardware is not crap as previously picture by Western media and analysts. As they can stop Western Hardwares.

Again it is the perspective that increasingly come out from Non Collective West media and public (that's can be shown) in the tone of their forums and online opinions. Nothing in here talking about the demining quality of Western Tech, however the nature of the war is already attrition war that's turn the war in to attrition war on any hardware no matter the origin.

I keep putting this repeatedly on my posts. This is not subjective opinion from me, but perspective that increasingly come out in parts of Non West audiences. I do hope I don't have to repeat it again. Seems some in here simply doesn't want to accept Non Western perspective that's not in line with their Western view. That's too bad.




Well that's work both way (at least in Non Western perspective), as if they are really much lower attrition rate then Russian weapons, the counter offensive should already bring Ukrainian back to the coast of sea of azov. As this is part of the original intention of the counter offensive as Western sources already put.



There are those who only want to accept Russian says and those who want to accept only Ukrainian/Western says. However for increasingly Non Western audiences, is increasingly looking on both sides media and pundits as bias. Thus just looking to real progress in the ground to come out on their own perspective. Most are see this war are attrition war that bog down progress on each sides, and their hardwares (no matter where the origins) not change much the situation.

This is where my original position that seems becoming debates. Increasingly those in Non West media and public segments, who originally more incline to Russian hardware, back to their possitive views. Mostly due the war basically bog down any hardwares progress.

Doesn't mean those segments are going to stop Non West to buy Western Hardware or Russian Hardware going to be regain back their previous market share. More to inclination that Russian hardwares is not crap as Western pundits (or Pro Western sides) try to put in the beginning of this war.

Re the PzH2000, I've read exactly the same criticisms in the western press - but also, Ukrainian gunners saying it's still better than Russian guns, because it has longer range & is more accurate even when the barrel starts to wear. From what I've read the western rating for rounds fired before changing the barrel is lower than Russian guns only because the Russians accept much higher levels of wear, & thus reduced accuracy. The Ukrainians are reported to be using PzH2000 far beyond its rated barrel life & still praising its accuracy.

I've not heard anything good about that Italian mortar, though.

The 19th April 2022 link from Anadolu Ajansı merely quotes a Russian press release. It cannot be trusted. According to the Russians back then, they were on the edge of total victory. Elena Teslova, the author, is Russian, based in Moscow (so unable to tell the truth), & an uncritical supporter of the Russian official line, a member of organisations affiliated with the Russian state. Quoting her is like quoting Putin.

Oh, & if the numbers she gave were true, the Ukrainian Air Force ceased to exist about 18 months ago.

 

[Larry_L]

I would agree the practice is debatable as to its value, given the limited stock of SS missiles. I suspect that if UKR wanted to, they could render the Kerch bridge largely unusable if they volleyed a large number of SS/Neptune/atacms/whatever, and decoy missiles. That would be a pretty big morale boost, but given inability to close the land routes, may not net them much.

I view the strike on the novocherkassk landing ship as a double strike on logistics, and munitions. The videos clearly showed munitions cooking off, and the extent of damage lends credence to the amount that was destroyed along with a munitions transport vessel. Ukraine claimed that the cargo contained 4,400 artillery shells and 280 ground-launched rockets. If this strike had not taken place this explosive force would have been visited upon the defense forces in Ukraine. In addition, the Russian has been retreating in the Black Sea, an this will further ensure that they stay at a distance.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/18r5m62

Struck By Ukrainian Missiles, The Russian Ship ‘Novocherkask’ Exploded With The Force Of 30 Tons Of TNT

'Novocherkask' exploded with the force of 30 tons of TNT. The most powerful non-nuclear bomb in existence, Russia’s 'Father of All Bombs,' is slightly more destructive.

www.forbes.com

 

[kato]

68K shells for 278M euro implies the price of about €4,100 per shell. So the Rheinmetall order due in 2025 must be for about 25,000 munitions. If this cannot be defined as a joke then what can? If there are some better hard numbers that support the argument the other way, I am all ears.

You can find the German orders (for its own forces) in this post and this post.

The 2025 RWM contract (for 30,000 shells) is an extension / option call of an expiring previous framework contract which is being exercised. The government has signed two new framework contracts with RWM for 330,000 rounds and with Nammo for 350,000 rounds in July this year, running until 2029. Both contracts, if fully exercised, are worth about 3.2 billion Euro together.

These contracts are for the Bundeswehr though, with only a small amount of initial deliveries (a few thousand rounds in 2024) planned for delivery to Ukraine. As stated previously here, i don't expect the Bundeswehr to further afford cutting their own stocks without replacement for Ukraine for budgetary reasons.

Otherwise Ammunition for Ukraine is bought separately from this through the EU initiative through regular non-framework contracts. The ammunition for Ukraine bought from Rheinmetall is also produced separately btw, the majority of it at their recently acquired and ramping up Expal subsidiary in Spain.