The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
What are the thoughts on the Belgorod strike targets?
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Unless there were valid military targets, striking Belgorod is a waste of resources. Putin couldnt give a crap about damage to Belgorod.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,224
If there are no valid military targets it could be a war crime. From what I can see it's not much different from Hamas shelling Israeli towns and cities indiscriminately.
I am not aware that we have any accurate data on what the actual targets were, would love to Be corrected if we do.
Attacking like this does several things though.
Firstly it slakes the thirst for revenge amongst your own population. Seeing your aggressor get hit in the same way as they are hitting you will genuine make people feel better about themselves.
Secondly I doubt very much that this is aimed at Putin, it is more likely to let the Russian people understand that they too are vulnerable.
It undoubtedly has many other effects too, none of which are directly military ( just as Russian strike on Kiev and other cities aren't entirely about achieving military aims.
I am not advocating for any moral point of view here, and I am certainly not saying that I agree or disagree with either side on the use of weapons on cities.
Is it moral to put your enemies population in gear of their own lives? Is it even possible not to do this once hostilities start.
Remember the wild caller to the TV station in Russia who demanded nuclear retaliation on Ukraine when the Moskva was sunk? An awful lot of civilised behaviour goes straight of the window in these circumstances.
There was a caller to a UK radio station who insisted that the UK would be nuked if we carried on assisting Ukraine because we are in island and it wouldn't affect anybody else ....
Rationality and proportion is often quickly lost in warfare.
If there are military targets in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, surely there will be some in Bolgorod and other Russian cities? As I said in my other post do we have any data on what the actual targets were?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,227
I think there are several things to unpack here. Yes, the West has given smaller quantities then everything Russia owns. On the other hand much if not most of what Russia owns is in poor condition rotting in a field somewhere. Some of that has been restored and sent to war, but there is much that hasn't. On the flip side the west has given Ukraine thousands of armored vehicles, and by my estimate over a thousand artillery pieces of all types. The quantities of western military aid to Ukraine aren't small. In point of fact they're absolutely massive. And much of it isn't being covered in detail. Romanian kit for example ended up in Ukraine. The quantities are relatively small but they're not 0. Yet I haven't seen any official source cover the quantities of that aid.
As for quality, the two most numerous western armored vehicles provided to Ukraine are BMP-1s and M113s... quality? Pre-war in Russia the BMP-1 was exceedingly rare (iirc only two brigades in the Far East were using those, and even then some were upgraded BMP-1AMs). Russia continues to produce new BMP-3s to the tune of hundreds per year, and upgrade BMP-2s to the BMP-2M standard with a modern combat module. It's true Russia has also pulled BMP-1s from storage, but overall I don't think we can claim Ukraine's ground forces have gotten better quality kit from the west. Russia's BMP-3s production over the past 2 years is definitely greater, by itself, then just then Bradleys and Marders Ukraine received, two relatively modern IFVs.
Ukrainian airpower has had relatively little effect on the battlefield. While Ukraine has managed to launch some highly visible symbolic strikes, they mostly do little to move the front line in one direction or another. Ukrainian HIMARS strikes had a far greater effect in that regard. Lobbing S-5/8 rocket pods at low altitude is essentially a waste of fuel and munitions for both sides.
This is not a surprise. The PzH2000 and Caesar are drastically newer then the 2S1 and 2S3s Ukraine has. Same for the M777s compared to the common D-20 in Ukrainian service. However these systems represent a minority of western military aid. Ukraine received Polish 2S1s, Finnish Giatsint-B, Croatian M46s, Polish Grads, Czech Vampirs, the list goes on and on, to include US WW2 era M101 howitzers, no doubt of excellent quality, but hardly superior to even a Soviet 2S3 or 2S19. The primary artillery advantage Ukraine has comes from the long range of the small number of modern western guns coupled with modern guided shells for them that comfortably outrange Russia's Krasnopol' family. These, coupled with HIMARS/M270s allow Ukraine to outperform Russia in counter-battery fires, but only 1) while the relatively modern western guns are available and in good working order, 2) while the better modern 155mm shells are available and 3) this was only consistently the case until mass deployment of Lancets, which evened the playing field quite a bit. You'll note that Krab and M109 howitzers don't enjoy the same advantage over their Russian counterparts that the more modern guns do. And even the M777s are likely over 50% gone at this point (Потери 155-мм гаубиц M777 ВСУ).
Yes Russian official claims should at best be examined very carefully and only in light of supporting evidence from non-official sources. Personally I've been ignoring them and advise anyone who isn't willing to put in hours of work separating truth from fiction to do the same.
On the whole I would say this. When Ukraine receives modern western kit that offers a substantial technological advantage and is relevant to this conflict it can get a qualitative edge over Russia. However a typical Ukrainian territorial defense formation, many of which are on the front lines right now, is drastically outmatched by a typical Russian line Motor-Rifles unit. Many Ukrainian formations are not mechanized at all, relying on unarmored transport. And when faced with the prospect of riding to the front in a mix of pickups, vans, and cargo trucks, suddenly an MT-LB starts to look good, and a BTR-82A like a spaceship. Ukraine's best are a match, and in some areas like artillery more then a match for Russia's best. But the average level of Ukrainian forces in my estimate is substantially worse. Note that while Ukraine has received thousands of pieces of kit, Oryx before quitting his work documented over 5k pieces of equipment lost too. I suspect Ukraine has lost about as much kit as it has received from the west (+/- of course). Meanwhile the size of the Ukrainian military has quadrupled from ~250k to 1.1 million according to the latest reports. And Ukraine had trouble kitting out their troops before the war with some infantry brigades having incomplete artillery parks and also riding unarmored vehicles. This problem can only be worse now. Ukrainian elite forces "own the night" because they all have NVGs, outgun the MT-LBs so ubiquitous in Russian service with their Bradleys, and can rely on decent artillery support from modern western SP howtizers. The average Ukrainian soldier I suspect never gets to touch an NVG, has unarmored transport if any, and is often short on even basic crew served weapons nevermind artillery support.
To be clear what I write in this last paragraph is the impression I have gotten from reviewing buckets of footage, reading much on social media including Ukrainian sources, and putting together some of the numbers mentioned above. Anyone is welcome to draw their own conclusions, these are mine.
Yes. I will do a post about it later tonight provided nothing comes up. As far as I can tell Ukraine tossed an MLRS packet into the middle of Belgorod with no particular target in mind.
Me too, I'm longing to know more about what happened there. It's possible that Kiev retaliated on civilians in Belgorod, but, if they did, that would be a first. It's possible that they tried to hit a symbolic administrative building in the center, rather than civilians, yet knowing that civilians will be killed.
It's also possible that Ukrainians tried to hit legitimate or semi-legitimate targets, but that their missiles have been deviated by the Russian air defence. Air defence projectile don't usually hit the incoming missile but explodes close enough o make it tipping up and down. It's possible that a missile has been deviated from a blast in the air.
That's what probably happened when an Ukrainian missile fell on Rostov on Don, on a irrelevant building injuring 5 (or something like that).
If Ukrainians really made a retaliatory strike targeting civilians, that would be very risky for them, Yet they are able to do that. And the West is also able to close their eyes if there is no obvious evidence and if it doesn't happen too often.
But that would also be very stupid to do so because it's counter-productive. You just give your enemy a good reason to attack you more at a time when the Russian population starts to question the sens of this war.
Honestly, I don't know.
I add just this:
An urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in New York was held on Saturday at Russia's requestBBC said:
Errr - we seem to be talking at cross-purposes here. Since when have BMPs, 2S1s, Giatsint-Bs, M46s, Grads, etc. been western? The argument was about modern, authentically western, weapons such as PzH2000, with it being claimed they were being lost at high rates & were no better than, or inferior, to Russian equivalents.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,230
Sorry, was speaking about western aid overall. What I understood was that your point was about quality vs quantity in terms of military aid that Ukraine received. Non-western designed equipment provided by the west I think is still relevant here. That having been said, the buckets of poor-condition humvees, the M113s, and other older kit are western. M46s might not be, but M101s are. And what about those pre-WWII AAA from the Baltics? There's plenty of older equipment or equipment in bad condition or both. Even the L119/M119 is hardly modern.
With regards to Anada's claim, I thought it was fairly clear. He's not stating the actual loss rations are the same. He's saying the perception in non-Western countries is that they're comparable. I don't know whether this is true or not, but either way it's a discussion of public perception in the third world not a discussion of actual loss ratios.
It most certainly would not. Ukraine has shelled Russian border village many times, and has shelled Donetsk for years. It's completely par the course.
Not sure if anyone knows this but would a civilian municipal office be a legitimate military target?
It doesn't look that way to me here, but it has happened before. I'll make it a point to share the images/videos and you can judge for yourself.
There is nothing risky about this. Ukraine has been doing this albeit on a smaller scale against Russia proper, and on a comparable scale to Donetsk for almost the entire war. The West has kept their eyes shut to that kind of behavior since '14. They will continue to do so unless Ukraine does something really beyond the pale.
I don't think Ukraine has received thousands of armoured vehicles and tanks. I think the number is rather in the hundreds (which could still exceeds 1000 but not much more).swerve said:
If you include BMP's and T-70's from the Warsaw Pact countries, maybe we reach 2000 pieces.
This is also my own built opinion after reading multiple articles and hearing debates on the topic.
One fact is that material provided to the Ukrainian armed forces is extremely various. One Ukrainian official once said that never an army has used so many different weapons in such a short time. Not only from various countries, but also from various eras, as far as WW2 (Thanks: I didn't know about the US WW2 era M101 howitzers, LOL), if WW1 if we include the Maxim machine gun.
The Russians too had a patchwork of modern technology and surprisingly obsolete equipment.
IMO, the big problem with Russian military procurement is corruption. You can say, there is corruption in every country. Ok, but there are nuances.
In the West there is much more quality control and the manufacturers are serious about quality. Corruption in the West is when a commission has to chose a contractor. Then lobbyist are influencing and some envelopes are given here and there. But when they get the contract, usually they do their job with more or less satisfaction.
In Russia, it's different. In Russia, contracts are granted. Factory directors are friends, so are defence ministry employees, from the top down. And nobody cares. Nobody gives a damn about developing something good, about using resources smartly, about high precision, innovation and everything that should be done normally. There is massive embezzlement.
They do move their derriere when there is real pressure from above, now that the war is getting serious. And then they are getting a little bit more serious.
That's why Russia is still able to produce more missiles and Lancets than before 2022.
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This is a very interesting topic because this perception is completely off base.Feanor said:
When Russian shows trophies of one Leopard 2 and two Bradleys, people in Mali dance on the roofs. Most of the Non-Aligned don;t even pay attention to Russian losses.
For them, the fact that someone managed to destroy something from the West is hugely symbolic.
About Belgorod:
There is a huge difference between now and the pre-2022 war.You said:
Until 2022, both sides, but I mean Ukrainians, were firing at each others near or in Donetsk and in a few places along the line. And Ukrainian did kill civilians, and committed crimes. But it was low scale. Of course dead innocent are never low scale, but I mean, there were no planned massive attacks with advanced weapons. It was sniper fire, mostly, and sometime artillery fire. The relatively large number of casualties (on both sides), grew as time passed by since 2014.
It was done by local commander with little control from the government.
After 2022, Ukrainians couldn't afford anymore to tease the Russian with sporadic fires on Donetsk streets. Their attitude was different, the order of magnitude of the clash was different.
If some war crimes are still committed by Ukrainians (and foreign legions), it was not under the control of the government or of the headquarter.
I don't think and don't believe that they organised missile strikes on Russian villages or cities until before yesterday strike on Belgorod (which I only admit as possible, not proven).
One thing should be noted when one side or another reports a strike on a village: it's most often a strike on a military target in or in the vicinity of the village. Nobody, in this war will waste ressources and tarnish their reputation shelling villages just to terrorise their inhabitants.
No, it isn't.You said:
Some administrative building are, what I call, semi-legitimate targets because they are linked to the military or the propaganda machine.
In the case of Belgorod, I think they could have targeted a symbolic administrative building. It would not be a legitimate target. Yet, not as bad as targeting civilians.
As i said, I don't rule out Ukrainians targeting civilians for the sake of killing them and create a shock among the population. It's just not my first theory.
My first theory is that it's accidental. Note that I also think that most of civilian casualties under Russian missile attacks are accidental in the sens that they missed their targets.
But is firing 1600 long range missiles accidental?
The Kerch bridge has always been top of the list of strategic targets for the Ukrainians. They did two major attacks on it. Once with a truck loaded with explosives, and another with a mix of drones and missiles, with mixed results. But this is perhaps the most protected site in the entire region. For the Russians and Putin, personally, it's very important symbolically, as well as logistically.
I have heard that the bridge is operating at limited capacity because structural damages have not been repaired yet. And this is already a big problem for them.
The big landing ship was used to move military equipment and ammunitions to the Kherson region via Crimea. That's why it exploded so well. This completed the logistic hindrance.
I the Ukes don't try to bombard the Kerch bridge anymore, it's because they know their missiles won't cross air defences. Russians are quiet effective in intercepting various types of missiles, including Storm Shadows. They can't afford to send volleys of missiles to get only one or two hit its target, because their missiles are counted and they need them in more urgent places. They won't waste 10 Storm Shadows or equivalent just on an attempt on the Kerch Bridge which may fail while they could hit 5 or 6 other important, albeit less fortified, targets.
But I'm sure, they will try again as soon as they get a chance.
Historically, Russia has always won at this game.
This article seems to suggest drone facilities in Belgorod?
rubryka.com
Ukraine's armed forces strike Russian military bases in Belgorod with missiles
The Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces launched a missile attack on military facilities in the Russian city of Belgorod. This was reported to RBC-Ukraine by a source in the special services. "These are joint measures, which were the consequences of the barbaric shelling of Dnipro, Kharkiv...
rubryka.com
Ananda
The Bunker Group
It is not just matter of emotional symbolic, but matter also for business. War is business, especially for Defense Industry. During early part of the war, legions of Salespeople represent Western Defense Industry talking around in Global South media and online forums try building public perceptions in Global South. That Russian Hardwares are crappy ones, base on the performance in this war. They are using similar tactics when lobbying the officials.
Global South is Russian defense market. Western and allies nations are not. The West try to take over that market from Russia base on business and politics. It is matter for West to regain influence in much Global South and deprived Russia on their defense market.
Now the Pro Russian hit back by building perspective base on the performance of Western Hardwares in Ukrainian hand. Basically saying they're also being destroy and facing similar attrition situation with Russian Hardwares. Thus Russian Hardwares not as crap as those Western pundits (salesman) says. That perspective is very potential for Russian salesman to fend off their market from Western salesman. They are using similar tactics by talking in media or online forums. Try to build public opinions and use that also as lobbying tools with officials.
This is what matter when dealing on any marketing war. Building perspective and counter perspective. Who won the perspective building war, potentially will win the market. Public perspective in India, Algiers, Vietnam or Non Collective West are matter on this defense business war, not public opinions in West and allies. That's the essence what I'm trying to put on my posts.
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,238
Speaking from memory here but iirc the US alone supplied two batches of MaxxPros, one 300 the other 200, and one batch of Oshkosh M-ATVs of 200 vehicles. There were additional announcements of MRAPs with no quantities provided, there were Husky MRAPs from the UK, and Kipris from Turkey, and Iveco Lynx from Italy. I suspect MRAPs alone top over 1000 vehicles. Then there's armored Humvees of which I know the US provided over 650 vehicles. Add to that the ~130 Oshkosh armored trucks towing those M777s, and you have over 750 armored cars/trucks. Again those are just a few large batches. Other deliveries of armored cars/trucks did take place. Again I suspect were looking at up to 1k armored cars/trucks. Those two narrow categories already likely top them 2k estimate you have.
Again going from memory but I recall over 800 M113s, and that includes YPR-765s. Add in the BMP-1 from Poland, Greece, and Czech Republic, XA-180s from Finland (did Finland hand over any of their BMPs? they did transfer their Giatsint-B we know because of the distinct paintjob, but their BMPs are standard Soviet olive-green), VABs from France, Romanian BTR clones, Polish 2S1s, Jordanian Strela-10s, Czech Zuzana howitzers, M109s from all over, bandvagn206 conjoined transporters, and you have an assortment that defies imagination. And this is without getting to the front pagers like Bradleys (130+), Strykers (110+?), Marders (~60-80, unclear if second batch of 20 arrived) T-72M1s (who knows how many, but they came from Czechia and Poland, did they come from Finland? what about those Macedonian T-72As?) the 45 T-72Bs the US got somewhere... (Morocco?), PT-91s, Leo-2s, Leo-1s, M1s, CR-2s... I think 5000+ isn't an unrealistic estimate for all armored vehicles.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,239
Update on holiday shelling.
Belgorod.
Impacts landing in Belgorod. One of the impacts was on Sobornaya Square, an open area in the middle of town where apparently a New Years festival was taking place. The tree and booths can be seen in one of the videos. Presumably the tree is a hidden Russian SAM site, and the booths are actually Wagner training facilities.
The list of damaged buildings includes 30 residential apartment buildings, one kindergarden, one school, one lyceum, and 3 private houses.
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You can see one landing at a parking lot between two buildings striking some parked cars, and another landing apparently in the middle of a busy street full of civilian traffic.
vk.com
Footage of 2 impacts in the middle of busy streets. No doubt those cars were mobile UAV manufacturing factories.
vk.com
vk.com
One of the targets was a local university where thankfully classes weren't in session at this time.
t.me
Russia claims 3 intercepted HARMs over Belgorod region. If true this suggests that Ukraine fired fairly indiscriminantely on a town full of civilians in the hopes of getting Russian air defense to reveal themselves. Clearly the behavior of a country that belongs in NATO and the EU.
vk.com
Map of alleged impact areas. If someone wants to dispute it, they can try their hand at geolocation from the videos provided. It looks approximately correct to me based on the background landscapes but of course I'm no native of the town so there could be inaccuracies.
t.me
Russia reports 24 dead including 3 children and 130 wounded in the attack on Belgorod. 25 of the wounded are being airlifted out, exact reasons are unclear.
t.me
t.me
Donetsk.
Total shelling reported by Russian sources has Kuybyshev Rayon hit by 155mm shells, Petrovskiy Rayon hit by 155mm cluster shells, and and 15 MLRS rockets (not type of MLRS unclear). Note there isn't confirmation on munition types from the footage.
t.me
Battle damage from shelling in Donetsk. You can judge the target choices for yourself. We have MLRS impacts in the yard of a residential apartment building.
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t.me
Russian air defenses firing over Donetsk.
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Belgorod.
Impacts landing in Belgorod. One of the impacts was on Sobornaya Square, an open area in the middle of town where apparently a New Years festival was taking place. The tree and booths can be seen in one of the videos. Presumably the tree is a hidden Russian SAM site, and the booths are actually Wagner training facilities.
The list of damaged buildings includes 30 residential apartment buildings, one kindergarden, one school, one lyceum, and 3 private houses.VK.com | VK
vk.com
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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
☦️Жуткие кадры из Белгорода: в центре убиты дети и взрослые, в городе снова тревога ▪️Погибли уже 4 человека, количество пострадавших возросло до 30, сообщают СМИ. ▪️В центре города минимум 3 пожара — у кинотеатра "Победа", на Соборной площади и на Гражданском проспекте. ▪️Один из снарядов попал...
t.me
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Количество погибших в Белгороде увеличилось до 18 человек, пострадали 111 жителей, — МЧС России. На видео страшные последствия ударов и ранение парня, решившего выглянуть в окно. t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
⠀☦️Количество жертв растёт: уже 21 погибший и 110 раненых, повреждены 30 домов и 344 квартиры... ▪️Губернатор В. Гладков: "К большому горю, количество погибших увеличилось до 21 человека, из них трое - это дети. 110 человек получили ранения разной степени тяжести, из них 17 детей. В тяжелом...
t.me
Colonelcassad
В Белгороде прилеты. Противник в отместку за вчерашние удары по военным объектам тупо пытается обстреливать Белгород без какой-то конкретной цели со вчерашнего вечера. Погибли 2 детей.
t.me
Colonelcassad
В отместку за разрушенные оборонные предприятия, склады боеприпасов, цеха по производству беспилотников, командные пункты и скопления техники, враг обстрелял новогоднюю елку в Белгороде и убил двух детей.
t.me
You can see one landing at a parking lot between two buildings striking some parked cars, and another landing apparently in the middle of a busy street full of civilian traffic.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Footage of 2 impacts in the middle of busy streets. No doubt those cars were mobile UAV manufacturing factories.
VK.com | VK
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vk.com
One of the targets was a local university where thankfully classes weren't in session at this time.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Под удар украинских террористов также попал Белгородский государственный технологический университет По данным СМИ, студентов не было в здании БГТУ в момент прилёта. t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
Russia claims 3 intercepted HARMs over Belgorod region. If true this suggests that Ukraine fired fairly indiscriminantely on a town full of civilians in the hopes of getting Russian air defense to reveal themselves. Clearly the behavior of a country that belongs in NATO and the EU.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Map of alleged impact areas. If someone wants to dispute it, they can try their hand at geolocation from the videos provided. It looks approximately correct to me based on the background landscapes but of course I'm no native of the town so there could be inaccuracies.
Colonelcassad
Карта все вчерашних "прилетов" по Белгороду. На карте хорошо видно, что залп РСЗО произведен не прицельно, а "примерно в центр города". В результате - поражены достаточно случайные объекты в центре города, среди которых нет военных частей, предприятий промышленности и органов власти. @vatfor
t.me
Russia reports 24 dead including 3 children and 130 wounded in the attack on Belgorod. 25 of the wounded are being airlifted out, exact reasons are unclear.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Белгородцы несут цветы и мягкие игрушки к стихийному мемориалу в центре города По последним данным, в результате кровавой террористической акции ВСУ погибли 24 человека, в их числе - 4 ребенка. Количество пострадавших возросло до 130 человек, сообщили в Минздраве./ТК Звезда/ t.me/RVvoenkor
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WarGonzo
⚡️Тяжелораненых белгородцев эвакуируют в Москву⚡️ На консилиуме экстренных служб было принято решение о санитарной эвакуации 25 человек, пострадавших после вчерашнего обстрела города украинскими террористами, и чьё состояние оценивается как тяжёлое. Среди эвакуироваемых 6 детей. Все они будут...
t.me
Donetsk.
Total shelling reported by Russian sources has Kuybyshev Rayon hit by 155mm shells, Petrovskiy Rayon hit by 155mm cluster shells, and and 15 MLRS rockets (not type of MLRS unclear). Note there isn't confirmation on munition types from the footage.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️☠️Враг ведет массированный обстрел Донецка и Токмака: центр столицы ДНР затянуло дымом По Токмаку в Запорожской области враг бьет из РСЗО HIMARS. Зафиксированы обстрелы по направлению: Из н.п. Карловка Куйбышевский район обстрелян НАТОвскими гаубицами калибра 155 мм. В 00:05 из н.п...
t.me
Battle damage from shelling in Donetsk. You can judge the target choices for yourself. We have MLRS impacts in the yard of a residential apartment building.
Colonelcassad
Последствия прилетов в Донецке. Также сообщатся о прилетах "Гераней" в Николаеве и Одесской области. Противник подтверждает попадание и пожар в Одессе.
t.me
Colonelcassad
Последствия обстрела центра Донецка из РСЗО в 00:10 1 января. Погибли 3 человека 7 ранено.
t.me
Russian air defenses firing over Donetsk.
Colonelcassad
Враг обстрелял центр Донецка сразу после наступления Нового года. Работает ПВО. Есть пострадавшие. PS. 1-й АК сообщает, что по центру города было выпущено 15 ракет РСЗО. Часть ракет сбили.
t.me
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
If the RU are so good at intercepting SS, why are ships of the black sea fleet constantly being given early retirement ? Do we have an accurate accounting of SS missile attacks and interceptions ?