The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Jaykaro

Member
Another work of the roaming Patriot. According to Ukrainian sources, 3 Su-34s were shot down. Russian sources only confirm something being shot down and the death of pilots without specifying how many. In principle, it is logical, the absence of AWACS aircraft in Russia and the relaxed use of FAB-500 near the front line should result in something like this. Well, the domestic counterpart to JDAM-ER is very disappointing.
Fortunately for Ukraine, Rostec is raking in huge money on low accuracy shit.

Also russians report the use by UA of new and previously unseen jet kamikaze UAVs. Judging by the photos, it is a drone from ukrjet - the UJ-23 Topaz.
  • Flight range - up to 400 km;
  • Maximum speed - 800 km/h
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Yesterday Ukrinform reported explosions at the Kerch Bridge and traffic interruption. Nothing since, neither at Ukrinform nor at other news outlets. Probably a failed attempt. All the missiles being intercepted by Russian air defence. Otherwise we would have heard of it.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Another work of the roaming Patriot. According to Ukrainian sources, 3 Su-34s were shot down. Russian sources only confirm something being shot down and the death of pilots without specifying how many. In principle, it is logical, the absence of AWACS aircraft in Russia and the relaxed use of FAB-500 near the front line should result in something like this. Well, the domestic counterpart to JDAM-ER is very disappointing.
Fortunately for Ukraine, Rostec is raking in huge money on low accuracy shit.

Also russians report the use by UA of new and previously unseen jet kamikaze UAVs. Judging by the photos, it is a drone from ukrjet - the UJ-23 Topaz.
  • Flight range - up to 400 km;
  • Maximum speed - 800 km/h
Yesterday Ukrinform reported explosions at the Kerch Bridge and traffic interruption. Nothing since, neither at Ukrinform nor at other news outlets. Probably a failed attempt. All the missiles being intercepted by Russian air defence. Otherwise we would have heard of it.
Sources please.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Sources please.

Fighterbomber telgram confirms at least one shootdownn and claims that all pilots and alive have been recovered.
 

Atomic Warrior

New Member
As conflicts rage overseas, a divided Congress struggles to meet historic global challenges:
Congress is not expected to return for two weeks while continued aid for Ukraine has nearly been exhausted. The Biden administration plans to send one more aid package before the new year, but says it will be the last unless Congress approves more money.

Ukraine aid particularly militarily seems to be on a knifes edge. This could dramatically change the dynamics in the Ukraine war saddly.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol Front.

The front here is almost stable. There are some recent minor gains towards Terny, but the rest is mostly static. Russian forces are still holding a foothold inside Sin'kovka but Ukrainian reinforcements and counter-attacks have prevented any further gains.


A clip of combat in the woods of Kremennaya from a UAV.


Ukrainian Strv 122 knocked out and abandoned somewhere near Kupyansk or Terny (sources disagree). It's likely part of the Ukrainian reinforcements sent to this area to halt Russia's advance.


A rare Ukrainian T-64BM Bulat knocked out somewhere on the Oskol front, possible near Kupyansk.


The first cardboard PPDS drone from Australia was brought down in Lugansk region by Russian forces.


Near Kupyansk, in Uzhgorod Ukrainian sources from the 101st TerDefBde report 5 KIAs, with no WIAs mentioned, from a Russian S-300 strike.


Ukraine's 45th Arty near Kremennaya with their new Archers.


Ukraine's 44th Mech in the woods of Kremennaya with their Polish Rak SP mortars and Rosomak APCs.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian forces have made considerable gains here west of the town. Russian forces appear to be inside the village of Bogdanovka though over half of the village remains contested. Russian forces have also made some gains on the south-western outskirts in the local summer cottage neighborhood. Meanwhile in Klescheevka and Andreevka Russian forces remain stalled. In Klescheevka this mirrors fighting earlier when it took Ukrainian forces months to break into the high ground around the village. Russia is now having similar difficulties. Lastly Russia has made some minor gains west of Kurdyumovka. So far this is relatively insignificant but it could develop into a flanking move south of Andreevka and Klescheevka.


Russian forces have also gained ground in the Seversk bulge. This is the first movement of the front in this area for a very long. The movement appears to be minor, from the south-east, east of the village of Veseloe. Reports of heavy fighting here are scarce, and it's possible this is an opportunistic move as Ukraine relocates forces to other areas.


Ukrainian forces being taken prisoner near Klescheevka.


A single casualty collection point near Artemovsk/Bakhmut apparently gets 150 wounded per day.


Avdeevka.

Russian incremental gains here continue primarily north of the town as they push towards Novokalinovo and Ocheretino. The intent, very clearly, is encircle the town from the north on a fairly wide front, but this is also clearly not a priority. Russian forces have also taken some additional positions in the woods around Stepovoe, despite vigorous Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian armored vehicles have been spotted west of the railroad. Inside Avdeevka Russian forces have crept forward clearing the Vinogradniki neighbrohood, and pushing west of it on to Kolos street.


Russian forces attacking towards Severnoe south-west of Avdeevka, apparently capturing another tree line.


Russian strikes on Ocheretino continue.


Footage from inside Avdeevka shows that the town is slowly turning into rubble.


Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian unmanned platform carrying supplies to a forward position. This is the second such platform we've seen and both appear to be improvised designs. The first was tracked, the second is wheeled.


Ukrainian T-64BV hit near Avdeevka.


Russian strikes on the Avdeevka chemical plant.


Russian LMUR strikes in Avdeevka continue.


Ukrainian POWs taken near Avdeevka.


Donetsk.

Somewhere near Donetsk Russia put up manekens in uniform on a couple of knocked out BMP-3Ms. To me this seems silly, but what's interesting is that we can clearly see the additional armor on the vehicles. Russian official statements have been repeatedly claiming that all new BMP-3Ms are coming with up-armor kits from the factory but confirmation footage has been scarce.


It appears Ukraine hit a hospital in Donestk with a Grad strike and a fuel storage facility in an unrelated strike days earlier.


Mar'inka.

Russian forces appear to have finally taken the entirety of Mar'inka, at least the built up part. There seems to be some disagreement about whether a couple of tree lined fields west of it are part of the municipality. Russian forces have also pushed south fairly quickly, moving on Novomihailovka. Russian forcse have the village pressed from the east and the south, and have the hills north of it including the Ukrainian Zverinets position. The next step will likely be to approach it from the north as well. It's likely the intent here is to push towards Ugledar from the north.


Ukrainian forces retreating from Mar'inka.


Russian 155th Marines strike a Ukrainian Caesar howitzer, probably near Ugledar. Note the strike lands right outside the building, but the secondary detonation shows us the vehicle got hit. It's possible this was a munition storage location.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye.

There has been almost no movement here, with minor back and forth fighting in the Rabotino bulge. Russian forces have gained some ground west of the village capturing a knocked out Leo 2A4. However it's unlikely they will be able to haul it away unless they gain more ground.


A Ukrainian T-72 hits a landmine near Rabotino.


Russian units using a new tactical symbol, a filled in triangle, were spotted in Zaporozhye.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles near Rabotino including a CR-2.


A captured Ukrainian position near Verbovoe, courtesy of Russian VDV.


A well concealed Russian anti-UAS EW station in Zaporozhye.


Kherson.

Russian and Ukrainian forces are still fighting a positional battle in Krynki. However Ukraine is definitely having the worst of it. They are pressed into a very small perimeter and getting hit both on the ground and while crossing as Russian FPV drones continue to hunt for boats. The area itself is turning into complete rubble.


Russia appears to have lost 3 Su-34s to a Ukrainian missile ambush. At least one pilot was recovered.


Ukrainian Gyurza-M armored boat getting hit near Ochakov by a Lancet strike.


Russia Mi-8 hunting Ukrainian unmanned boats.


Russia is also continuing to strike the right shore of the Dnepr in interdiction efforts.


Russia is dropping mines on the Dnepr from UAVs.


Reportedly Russia has used 2S38 Derivatsiya 57mm AAA in Kherson region. This is a BMP-3 chassis with a autocannon and purely passive guidance systems making them hard to detect for enemy SEAD/DEAD efforts.


Other interesting tidbits.

Very interesting footage of what appears to be a Ukrainian HIMARS launch following which the vehicle hides in a treeline which Russian then strikes. We can't tell whether they hit the TEL or not. What makes this so interesting is that the observation doesn't appear to be a UAV, but rather a Russian infantry-held electrooptic system. In other words this launch was done fairly close to the front line possibly to strike a target far in the rear.


Ukrainian BMW-based erzats MLRS in action.


An unexploded RBK-500 spotted by Ukrainian forces. This seems to be our first confirmation of these munitions getting the UMPK kit.


A PT-91 stuck in mud. The type remains scarce and it's unclear how many were handed over. Possibly just a single btln.


An interesting look at road conditions in Ukraine. Wheeled vehicles are at a distinct disadvantage here.


Ukrainian forces show off their horse-drawn buggy being used to move their gear around. In the video they complain that they were told they would have everything they need, and in reality it looks like this. Note no widespread use of horse-drawn transportation has been seen. This is likely an isolated incident. However it underscores the lack of trucks the Ukrainian army deals with.


Ukrainian Kraken unit posing with a captured Russian Tornado-U MRAP.


A very rare BMO-T captured by Ukrainian forces and modified by adding a BTR turret.


A Ukrainian Marder with additional side screens. Footage of these vehicles from Ukraine remains scarce despite their continued use.


Ukraine claims they have managed to manufacture 30 2S22 Bogdana howitzers and are now using them. If true I suspect the manufacturing is taking place abroad, possibly in Poland.


Ukraine has begun constructing large defense lines, presumably trying to mirror Russian success in the defensive.


Another Ukrainian erzats MLRS, this one on the GT-MU offroad transport, with rocket pods from aircraft. A reminder the value of rocket pods as surface-surface weapons is very poor. The rockets were designed with the velocity of a flying aircraft in mind and thus are horrendously inaccurate when used in this manner, something both sides have resorted to.


Russia is claiming the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV has been accepted for service and is now deployed to the front line. No word on quantities, no footage confirming it at this time.


Russia is also claiming the first new Pantsyr-SMs are in the war zone. Neither of these claims are particularly unusual or impossible. The type was in development for some time before the war and isn't an entirely new system but rather an incremental upgrade.


Russian BARS units have received new trucks and anti-UAV systems from the MoD. Despite the formation of new units and substantial time, BARS units continue to operate much as they have in the past.


Russian forces using infantry-carried EW from Triton.


Russian forces appear to be setting up standardized trench root kits to protect from FPV drones. It's unclear what this looks like up close or how widespread it is, though likely it's fairly scarce. This is the only footage I have seen.


A Russian GAZ uparmored truck. Footage of uparmored trucks has become scarce in recent times. The nature of the fighting has shifted and trucks like this are unlikely to be anywhere near the front line.


A Russian T-72B3 with a roof cage and an EW station and an BMD-4M with side cages and also an EW station. The EW stations are becoming more and more common.


An interesting Russian BMP-3M with additional armor kit, a turret mounted roof cage, and extensive camouflage.


A Russian BTR-50 with a BTR turret, and additional armor. It's distinctly different from the BTR-50 we saw earlier with a ZU-23-2 for armament.


Russian sources confirm the use of a test batch of Plastun-SN light armored vehicles in Ukraine. Of course this is not news, at least one was already destroyed. Reportedly they're being used as MEDEVACs.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine's 21st Mech has also been spotted riding Rosomak APCs. Total quantities delivered are unclear but 3 Ukrainian units are spotted riding them, the 21st, 44th, and 57th.


Reportedly the Netherlands are preparing the first batch of 18 F-16s for handover.


Sweden and Denmark are financing the purchse of CV90s for Ukraine, ~263 million dollars worth of (~25 vehicles).


Bulgaria has reportedly agreed to hand over some expired SAMs to Ukraine. This likely includes S-300 missiles.


Canadian Roshel Senator has produced the 1000th armored car for Ukraine. This gives some idea of the scale of military aid Ukraine is receiving.


Lithuania has reportedly completed repairs on the first two Leo-2A6s sent to them from Ukraine.


Ukrainian forces training on the RBS-17 coastal missile system. I wouldn't be surprised to see it used on the Dnepr.


Test flight of Ukraine's new AQ 400 Scythe drone. It reportedly carries 32 kgs of payload.


A look at Ukrainian Magura V5 unmanned boat production.


Ukrainian military commissariat continues the practice of grabbing people off the street and even from restaurants and shopping malls in press gangs to serve in the military. In the second video they're using an ambulance as the vehicle to do this with. A particularly curious piece is that the ambulance in question was donated to Ukraine for the purpose of evacuating wounded personnel by a volunteer fund. The lack of desire to serve has become such a problem that even Ukrainian officialdom is acknowledging the issue. It is expected that Ukraine will expand age ranges for people to serve and possibly draft women as well.


An interesting bit of news, Ukarine's commander of the 93rd Bde bought himself a home on a mortgage in the US. Given what Ukrainian military salaries look like, this is a pretty questionable purchase.


And an example of particularly shocking dishonesty. In a televised interview, Zelensky claims Russia hasn't captured a single village in Ukraine in all of 2023. Presumably he assumes that his American audience is spectacularly ignorant of the realities of the war. However it underscores how thoroughly untrustworthy official statements from Ukraine are in this war.


Information is leaking out of British and Polish special forces operating inside Ukraine during the current war.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
I got excited when reports started coming out that Ukraine would receive F-16's by end of the year. It was impossible to verify. It would be nice if Ukraine got these aircraft for Christmas, and even better if they were upgraded with better radar than the Mid Live Upgrade (MLU) that they were rumored to be getting. On the 22nd the ISW reported:

Quote: Ukraine will very likely receive the first batch of F-16s before the end of 2023. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed on December 22 during a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the Dutch government will prepare an initial 18 F-16 fighter jets for delivery to Ukraine.[6] While Rutte did not confirm the timeline for F-16 delivery, a recent Estonian Ministry of Defense strategy document stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16s to Ukraine "before the end of the year [2023]."[7]


The ISW is referring to this document which says:

Quote:
Fighter Aircraft
Ultimately, Ukraine will need to supplement
its air defences with defensive counter air
(DCA) sorties by the Ukrainian Air Force. The
Ukrainian Air Force will therefore need Western
Fighter Aircraft by 2025 to sustain DCA.
The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and
Belgium have already committed to donating
F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. While the total
number of the jets is undisclosed, the first
deliveries are scheduled to take place before the
end of this year, with additional ones spread
over 2024 and 2025.


The upgrade mentioned most often is the AN/APG-68 Radar. There are many versions of this radar.


A document on the version 5 of the AN/APG-68. This gives some indication on why pilot training takes so long, and why it will take some time for pilots once trained to become proficient in this aircraft.


Not confirmation per se, but another data point.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
In other news, the Russian peace candidate ran into a snag in her bid to oppose Putin in the next election. I am not sure what this means, but feel it is a message to the general populous, saying: "We are in charge, and will be in charge. Shut up and deal with it". Again this is just the impression that I get.


There are some reports of a UAV attack in Rostov. One report mentions the Morozovsk aerodrome as the location. These look like the cardboard drones.


There are several reports of more Russian aircraft downed. There may now be a total of five.


Russia has announced several times lately that they have captured Marinka. It took them over 9 years, and who would really want it now.



The one bright spot in that video is a battered gold cross. That seems like a symbol of hope for the future in spite of all the devastation.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Ukrainian military commissariat continues the practice of grabbing people off the street and even from restaurants and shopping malls in press gangs to serve in the military. In the second video they're using an ambulance as the vehicle to do this with. A particularly curious piece is that the ambulance in question was donated to Ukraine for the purpose of evacuating wounded personnel by a volunteer fund.
I'm not sure if this explanation is accurate. Men in military fatigues are grabbing someone and taking him in an ambulance. We don;t know why they did that and what the arrested man did wrong. Maybe a deserter, a turncoat or spy suspect... but grabbed to be sent to the front line is very unlikely because that would be counter productive.
Maybe they used an ambulance because they lacked other type of vehicle or because they wanted to hide.

Feanor said:
And an example of particularly shocking dishonesty. In a televised interview, Zelensky claims Russia hasn't captured a single village in Ukraine in all of 2023.
Zelensky is always exaggerating in his speeches, talking of children, of genocide... It's indeed shocking because he does that all the time and everybody knows he lies or at least, embellish the situation.
I personally don't like the way he speaks.

TBS, Zelensky speeches or interviews are not official statement, in the sens that everybody knows that he is not reporting accurately.

Feanor said:
Information is leaking out of British and Polish special forces operating inside Ukraine during the current war.
There are between 20 and 50 thousands foreign military professionals in Ukraine. A very large part being Polish and a few ones from UK. (if being "from the UK' means anything at all).

It seems to me obvious that, among them, there are trained special forces, observers, officiers of some levels, high tech military specialists, trainers, consulting agents and so on.
One should be naive to think that MATO partners will send equipment worth billions of $ without having some personnel there to at least supervise. Between this and having special units on the front line, the limit is blurry.
Technically NATO may be already fighting against the Russian military.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Larry_L said:
a recent Estonian Ministry of Defence strategy document stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16s to Ukraine "before the end of the year [2023]."[7]
Between "committed" or "scheduled" and actually delivered, there is a large margin.
Everybody was talking about Spring 2024. I very surprised that they are ahead of schedule, but it's possible.
In fact, the informations remain secret and things are revealed to the public only when they are sure that the Russians knows it already. They won;t tell the Russians what Ukrainians got.

Ukrainian pilots are also training in France. This got my attention because France doesn't have F16's. They say they are training on simulators or something but I don't believe it. IMO they are being trained on Rafale or Mirage 2000.

Larry_L said:
n other news, the Russian peace candidate ran into a snag in her bid to oppose Putin in the next election.
She has been barred from running by the electoral commission.
It means that Putin is afraid of her. Not because she could be president instead of the president. But because she will campaign against war, friendship with the West, war compensation for Ukraine and for the liberation of Navalny.
Obviously Putin can't let such person being vocal in the media.

But the mere fact that this person exists, and dare speaks against war, is a good sign.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm not sure if this explanation is accurate. Men in military fatigues are grabbing someone and taking him in an ambulance. We don;t know why they did that and what the arrested man did wrong. Maybe a deserter, a turncoat or spy suspect... but grabbed to be sent to the front line is very unlikely because that would be counter productive.
Maybe they used an ambulance because they lacked other type of vehicle or because they wanted to hide.
Maybe it isn't. There are other possibilities. However the overall trend is unmistakable. Ukrainian military commissariat personnel are grabbing people off the streets, from shopping centers, restaurants, and gyms.

Zelensky is always exaggerating in his speeches, talking of children, of genocide... It's indeed shocking because he does that all the time and everybody knows he lies or at least, embellish the situation.
I personally don't like the way he speaks.

TBS, Zelensky speeches or interviews are not official statement, in the sens that everybody knows that he is not reporting accurately.
It was particularly brazen, so I felt it worth highlighting. In my opinion it showcased the cynical approach to speaking with the public.

There are several reports of more Russian aircraft downed. There may now be a total of five.

Fighterbomber denies additional downings after confirming earlier downings.


Russia has announced several times lately that they have captured Marinka. It took them over 9 years, and who would really want it now.



The one bright spot in that video is a battered gold cross. That seems like a symbol of hope for the future in spite of all the devastation.
The issue isn't the capture of that specific town, really just a ruined suburb of Donetsk. The goal is to push the front line back from Donetsk and to advance to other areas. Russia is clearly pushing southward, intending to close on Ugledar from behind. Presumably they will eventually also push west from there into Georgievka.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The issue isn't the capture of that specific town, really just a ruined suburb of Donetsk. The goal is to push the front line back from Donetsk and to advance to other areas. Russia is clearly pushing southward, intending to close on Ugledar from behind. Presumably they will eventually also push west from there into Georgievka.
Yes this is something that no Pro Ukrainian media/channel can denied no matter how they try to spin it off. Russian want to push the Ukrainian forces more and more farder off from Donetsk, thus to make it much harder for Ukrainian artillery to send barrages to Donetsk.

This is not only strategic but also symbolics for Russia. Donetsk after all one of big cities that always Pro Russia and part of Pro Russian 'Republic' that Russia use to be part of reasons to get into war in Ukraine.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure if this explanation is accurate. Men in military fatigues are grabbing someone and taking him in an ambulance. We don;t know why they did that and what the arrested man did wrong. Maybe a deserter, a turncoat or spy suspect... but grabbed to be sent to the front line is very unlikely because that would be counter productive.
Maybe they used an ambulance because they lacked other type of vehicle or because they wanted to hide.
Not the particular video, but this has now been reported in the news all over, basically. Here are a few paragraphs from a recent New York Times article (and this one is a “softer” one; I can’t recall the outlet for the other recent article I saw, so won’t say anything about it):

With Ukraine’s military facing mounting deaths and a stalemate on the battlefield, army recruiters have become increasingly aggressive in their efforts to replenish the ranks, in some cases pulling men off the streets and whisking them to recruiting centers using intimidation and even physical force.

Recruiters have confiscated passports, taken people from their jobs and, in at least one case, tried to send a mentally disabled person to military training, according to lawyers, activists and Ukrainian men who have been subject to coercive tactics. Videos of soldiers shoving people into cars and holding men against their will in recruiting centers are surfacing with increasing frequency on social media and in local news reports.

The harsh tactics are being aimed not just at draft dodgers but at men who would ordinarily be exempt from service — a sign of the steep challenges Ukraine’s military faces maintaining troop levels in a war with high casualties, and against a much larger enemy.[…]

Andrii Semaka, a soldier who in the early months of the war worked in the Vyzhnytsia recruiting center, said his office would bring in 15 to 20 potential conscripts a day. Roughly a quarter of them, he said, would bribe his superior, who remains in charge of the center, offering around $1,000 dollars to avoid being drafted. That price has only gone up since.

“It is a buyout from death — no one touches you anymore,” said Mr. Semaka, who was sent to fight in Bakhmut in June of last year.

One doctor at a nearby hospital, he said, would forge the documents from the medical commission after receiving a call from the recruiting center. The supervisor would call the doctor and say: “For this one, write that he is unfit. And for the other, write that he is healthy,’” he said.[…]

In Oshykhliby, the recruiters from Kitsman became known as the “people snatchers,” local residents said.


The article:



Zelensky is always exaggerating in his speeches, talking of children, of genocide... It's indeed shocking because he does that all the time and everybody knows he lies or at least, embellish the situation.
I personally don't like the way he speaks.

TBS, Zelensky speeches or interviews are not official statement, in the sens that everybody knows that he is not reporting accurately.
When the president of the country lies to the camera every time he talks, as in the example above, or Russian soldiers cutting babies’ heads off (NBC interview I posted here earlier), as well as other things that are relatively minor in comparison, and one can simply shrug it off as an “unofficial statement”… It’s not even about accuracy, it’s the complete nonsense he is spewing that is not exactly productive, quite the opposite, in fact. Things are, I believe, catching up to him now or will eventually. I saw it in him from the very beginning, but it didn’t bother me as much, but more and more, along with accusations and statements becoming completely ridiculous…

Anyway, I firmly believe he is doing a disservice to the country currently. The boy who cried wolf sort of thing that is really taken to the quite extreme. At some point, people will question anything that is said because there will be no difference or a way to distinguish between, for example, the monstrosities that really took place and the ones he/they made up. Another example would be that there is a whole bunch of folks out there who are still in disbelief that the counteroffensive failed and think that there is still something “up the sleeve” and is yet to come. Take the latter as a hearsay since I am not providing numerous links to individual Twitter posts that are replies to the posts of professionals that I follow. Ironically, in the latter, people who are coming to their senses also accuse those very professional analysts of having high expectations and getting everyone hyped up.

Last thing re Zelensky, as one American once said: you can fool all people some of the time and some people all the time; but you can never fool all people all the time.


Technically NATO may be already fighting against the Russian military.
Technically, in my opinion, we (NATO) have been fighting against Russia since we started coordinating strikes on the Russian positions, supply lines, etc (and that would be at the latest). That was reported a looong time ago and cited here by me as well.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Wasn’t sure if this would fit into the previous post due to the character limit, so I separated into two.


Russian and Ukrainian forces are still fighting a positional battle in Krynki. However Ukraine is definitely having the worst of it. They are pressed into a very small perimeter and getting hit both on the ground and while crossing as Russian FPV drones continue to hunt for boats. The area itself is turning into complete rubble.
The reports from the area are really gruesome, if not worse. The recent article from Washington Post really outlined some of the realities that the Ukrainian soldiers are facing, but I cannot find it at the moment (maybe it was another outlet, WSJ?). But the New York Times had one as well. I am not going to summarize the entire article at the moment, but here are a few paragraphs:

There was a faint tremor in the marine’s voice as he recounted the murderous fighting on the east bank of the Dnipro River, where he was wounded recently.

“We were sitting in the water at night and we were shelled by everything,” the marine, Maksym, said. “My comrades were dying in front of my eyes.”

For two months, Ukraine’s Marine Corps has been spearheading an assault across the Dnipro River in the southern region of Kherson to recapture territory from Russian troops. The operation is Ukraine’s latest attempt in its flagging counteroffensive to breach Russian defenses in the south and turn the tide of the war.

Soldiers and marines who have taken part in the river crossings described the offensive as brutalizing and futile, as waves of Ukrainian troops have been struck down on the river banks or in the water, even before they reach the other side.

Conditions are so difficult, a half-dozen men involved in the fighting said in interviews, that in most places, there is nowhere to dig in. The first approaches tend to be marshy islands threaded with rivulets or meadows that have become a quagmire of mud and bomb craters filled with water.[…]

Several soldiers and marines spoke to journalists out of concern about the high casualties and what they said were overly optimistic accounts from officials about the progress of the offensive.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that it was not immediately possible to comment on the soldiers’ accusations but that it would provide a response in due course.[…]

But footage of the area, livestreamed from a drone and seen by The New York Times, verified soldiers’ accounts of heavy Russian airstrikes that have destroyed the houses and turned the river bank into a mass of mud and splintered trees.

Fresh troops arriving on the east bank have to step on soldiers’ bodies that lie tangled in the churned mud, said Oleksiy, an experienced soldier who fought in Krynky in October and has since crossed multiple times to help evacuate the wounded.

Some of the dead marines have been lying there for as long as two months, as units have been unable to retrieve the bodies because of the intense shelling, said Volodymyr, a deputy company commander who was attending the funeral of one of his men, identified only as Denys, last week.[…]

With Ukraine’s counteroffensive bogged down and the United States and even the European Union showing signs of cutting back aid, the cross-river offensive has been keenly watched for signs that Ukraine can regain momentum against Russian forces. The hope is that they can create a breakthrough deep enough to threaten Russia’s supply routes and its hold in the south. The Marine Corps, rebuilt to full strength this year with several newly formed brigades, was assigned the task.[…]

In the case of the Dnipro, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and other officials have suggested recently that the marines have gained a foothold on the eastern bank. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted a statement last month claiming they had established several strongholds.

But marines and soldiers who have been there say these accounts overstate the case.

“There are no positions. There is no such thing as an observation post or position,” said Oleksiy. “It is impossible to gain a foothold there. It’s impossible to move equipment there.”

“It’s not even a fight for survival,” he added. “It’s a suicide mission.”[…]

Oleksiy said the Ukrainian commanders’ poor preparation and logistics had decimated his battalion. Wounded men were being left behind because of a lack of boats, he said, and the brutal conditions were degrading morale and soldiers’ support for each other.

“People who end up there are not prepared psychologically,” he said. “They don’t even understand where they are going. They are not told by the command that sends them there.”
Oleksiy agreed to let The Times publish his account out of frustration at the losses. “I did not see anything like this in Bakhmut or Soledar,” he said, referring to two of the most intense battles on the eastern front. “It’s so wasteful.”[…]

The marine Maksym, who was recovering in the hospital after being wounded in Krynky in November, said Russian airstrikes and tank, artillery and mortar fire were so intense that his platoon could not advance from the basements where the soldiers had first taken shelter.

After three men were killed in an airstrike, the platoon was ordered to evacuate. It turned into a chaotic and disastrous retreat. The soldiers came under shell fire as they made their way to the river bank in the dark, only to be told upon arrival that they would have to wait for three hours for boats to pick them up.“It was a swamp, all in craters filled with water,” Maksym said, adding, “We had no choice but to try to dig in as deep as we could.”

“Everyone was already wounded by that time,” he said. A boat came, on a different mission, and took the most seriously wounded.

As they waited for more boats, Russian planes bombed the river bank, with three glide bombs, massive half-ton explosives that gouged great holes in the earth.

Another boat arrived and took away five more wounded men. Maksym had to wait another 40 minutes for the next boat.

“The left bank was like purgatory,” he said. “You are not dead yet, but you don’t feel alive.”

Of the 10 men in his platoon, half were dead or missing, he said. “Not a single one survived without injury,”


The article:


The thought of “fulling all people sometimes, some all the time, but not all all the time” comes to mind again.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukraine has begun constructing large defense lines, presumably trying to mirror Russian success in the defensive.
It appears that this is exactly what they are doing, imo. Is there any word where these are being constructed? Very doubtfully this is being done all over the frontline.

I haven’t looked at the RU stuff in a while, but saw some of this same thing posted by Rob Lee on Twitter (posting links to both tweets for those without a Twitter account):



But there was no mention about where it was constructed.

Forbes reported yesterday that the US had sent some HESCO barriers, likely (well, clearly, imo) indicating the shift to the defense on the Ukrainian part. We, perhaps, can also speculate, as I already did in my post a week or two ago, that this may indicate that the preparation of the defensive lines is being done with quickness, indicating that they aren’t necessarily ready for it. I actually do not believe that this is much of a stretch of an assumption at all.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I got excited when reports started coming out that Ukraine would receive F-16's by end of the year…
Not sure how likely it is they will receive these jets sometime this week. Highly unlikely, in my opinion.

Furthermore, the latest quotes specifically indicate that they are made by the “outgoing” or “departing” prime minister. For example:

On Friday, departing Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands announced that his government was preparing to send Ukraine a first batch of 18 F-16 fighter jets, the powerful aircraft that Ukraine has long been lobbying for and on which Ukrainian pilots have already begun training.

The NYT article is from 4 days ago: Russia Makes Small Battlefield Gains, Increasing Pressure on Ukraine

Has there been much said if the new guy is sticking to the plan at all? He is kind of nuts from what I read about him when he was in the news in the past few years.


Ukrainian pilots are also training in France. This got my attention because France doesn't have F16's. They say they are training on simulators or something but I don't believe it. IMO they are being trained on Rafale or Mirage 2000.
Training doesn’t necessarily mean actual training on an aircraft, as it was already proven several times in this case. In the beginning, when the training supposedly began, it was just language learning, then the manuals, then the “strategy”, etc. Could be any of those and other things. Especially without a source, speculations can go wild, haha.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine appears to just have hit another Russian ship in port, the large landing ship Novocherkassk, using presumably Storm Shadows. Russian claims two downed Su-24s that were involved in the strike, but while Russia does appear to have fired on Ukrainian jets, there's no clarity on the outcome. Russian MOD confirms damage to the landing ship.

 
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