The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Russian MiG-35s were allegedly used in Ukraine. Confirmation is lacking and my suspicion is they either flew a defense CAP, or dropped standoff munitions from a safe distance.
The article talk about export customers, will be interesting whose still havd interests with Mig 35. Su-35 is different stories, Vietnam seems shown interest on that, Egypt also. Even with CAATSA, certain political factions in Indonesia still want to revive Su-35 deal. Something that potentially can happen if their candidate winning next Presidential election.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Hi. A few things about recent events and the autumn counter-offensive.
Americans and Ukrainians differed on the strategy. (as explained in great details in a previous post here). The Americans wanted a deep strike and rapid incursion with full force in the direction of the Sea of Azov. While the Ukrainians wanted to attack on three fronts: Bahkmut, Avdiivka (a Donetsk City suburb) and the Melitopol-Berdiansk-Mariupol direction aka the Tavria direction, aka the south front.

In fact, the Ukrainians didn't really chose to fight on three fronts, and even 4 or 5 fronts. They were forced by the Russians who themselves had prepared a counter offensive in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction and in Avdiivka, while reinforcing Bahkmut. In this condition, the Ukrainians were not able to focus on the south front. Their forces would have been encircled from the north by Russian advancing from Bahkmut and from anywhere else. I'm sure the Russians hoped that Ukrainian would do this mistake.

The second reason was that on the south front, the triple line of defense built by the Russians, aka the Surovikin Line, was much better than anyone expected. Mainly a combination of massive amount of land mines and constant artillery fire to prevent demining works. By "massive", Ukrainians mean never seen before, both in depth, length and concentration. You can get the best Bradley's and Leopards, if there are mines everywhere, and they meant "everywhere", there is nothing you can do.

The third reason was that Ukrainians didn't have enough modern weapons and didn't have proper air cover. The maths were simple: They needed 10x more tanks and armours to match Russian forces, even without the minefields.
And the almost complete lack of air cover made it very dangerous for the troops on the ground. The Ukrainian air force consists in more or less 15 Migs in working conditions at best. Maybe less.
Ukrainians didn't want to suffer the losses that the Americans had projected for them. And we understand them. Despite this, they already lost a lot of troops.

IMO, Ukrainians wait the F16's before starting something serious. That means April or May 2024. And the Russians exert maximum pressure before F16's show up in the Donbass'sky.
F16's won;t be a game changer because there won't be a lot of them, and they are 40 years old planes after all. But without them, there is no hope.
Psychologically they will have an impact on the Ukrainian morale and on the Russians who are scary of anything flying from NATO.
Ukrainians should also receive more ammunitions by spring. Namely the infamous "1 million 155 rounds" which will come gradually.

There is a lot of pessimism in the West at the moment.
The trucker strike and pro-Putin politicians in Europe don't help. But I think this is not the end of the story.
Ukrainians are not going to surrender and they will wait at least the delivery of the F16's and other stuffs before reassessing the situation.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@Vivendi It's interesting how he is thinking. By all evidence, he said that after more than one glass of imported champagne. This guy is living in a dream. The reality in Russia is that people want to ask him when the boys will come back, when the war will stop and when pension will be paid on time and in full.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@Vivendi It's interesting how he is thinking. By all evidence, he said that after more than one glass of imported champagne. This guy is living in a dream. The reality in Russia is that people want to ask him when the boys will come back, when the war will stop and when pension will be paid on time and in full.
This is not accurate. Especially in regard to pension paid on time and in full. There are no issues with that at all; in fact, quite the opposite. That older age category also supports the war the most.

There is quite a lot of confusion about the Russian society and state as a whole. I noticed a lot of information posted here in that regard is completely wrong, some I addressed, some didn’t (Feanor addressed quite a bit as well). Here is a good read for anyone interested that discusses some of the issues based on numerous polls and analysis. I would highly recommend it as a good read.


Edit: I will reply to your post in the other thread, Fredled. Maybe tomorrow.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@KipPotapych Yes, it's true: Pensions are paid once every three months (while the government promise to paid what is due later). + There is an extra war contribution for people earning a salary and private companies. + High inflation.
At the same time, soldiers deployed in Ukraine receive quiet good salaries going directly to their families.
So it's not a complete ripp-off and not an economic collapse, but people start to think it lasted enough. The war has almost not affected the life of the Russians, except for those whose father or husband or son has been sent to the front line.
Most Russians support the war in Ukraine because they don't feel directly affected by it and also because they believe the official explanation for this war. Yet, there is discontent, mainly in families of soldiers who are there for more than a year and are not being rotated.
The Russian nation is able to support more hardship, dictatorship and casualties in war time than any other nation. Both because of their admiration for Vladimir Putin and because in Russia this is acceptable. That's why one shouldn't count on popular protest to stop the war or demand regime change.

I know this from off-line sources.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Is there any breakdown of where Russian forces come from and casualties rates as such ,it might be presumed that conscripts from prisons may not even be counted or if a pension is sent to their families ,volunteers from Cuba and even Nepal may be in same position not forgetting Libyan and other volunteers from various African nations , there has been previous posting that a higher percentage of Russian casualties come from poorer areas does this reinforce a two tier system in Russia of wealth
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
@Feanor a question about Avdeevka.

So far we are seeing the Russians push towards stepove, but the 47th are retreating and then using their bradleys to counterattack and retake positions. Tatragami the reliable UKR source is also saying that the Bradleys have been very effective in this defensive action.

My question is why are the Russians not using lancets here? I know that the lancet is no wunderwaffe and can be countered. Is the 47th's EW capability so potent in this sector that they are negating the lancet's usage here?

the lancet has the range and can be deployed quickly, seems like the perfect weapon for hitting and at least disabling bradleys, after they are being spotted, so why are we not seeing their usage here much? Ukraine is currently not undertaking any major offensives to make the Russians save the lancets for counterbattery purposes.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This is not accurate. Especially in regard to pension paid on time and in full. There are no issues with that at all; in fact, quite the opposite. That older age category also supports the war the most.

There is quite a lot of confusion about the Russian society and state as a whole. I noticed a lot of information posted here in that regard is completely wrong, some I addressed, some didn’t (Feanor addressed quite a bit as well). Here is a good read for anyone interested that discusses some of the issues based on numerous polls and analysis. I would highly recommend it as a good read.


Edit: I will reply to your post in the other thread, Fredled. Maybe tomorrow.
In case someone doesn't like Levada, here's some data from Gallup.


@Feanor a question about Avdeevka.

So far we are seeing the Russians push towards stepove, but the 47th are retreating and then using their bradleys to counterattack and retake positions. Tatragami the reliable UKR source is also saying that the Bradleys have been very effective in this defensive action.

My question is why are the Russians not using lancets here? I know that the lancet is no wunderwaffe and can be countered. Is the 47th's EW capability so potent in this sector that they are negating the lancet's usage here?

the lancet has the range and can be deployed quickly, seems like the perfect weapon for hitting and at least disabling bradleys, after they are being spotted, so why are we not seeing their usage here much? Ukraine is currently not undertaking any major offensives to make the Russians save the lancets for counterbattery purposes.
Good question. Unclear. Russia is attacking a few areas, including pushes around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, continued advances on the Oskol Front, and also south of Donetsk. One might speculate that Russia is short on Lancets having expended quite a few in the south, but lostarmour data says otherwise. Russia use of Lancet is inline with normal levels. Making things messier is the fact that there are reports from Russian sources including iirc Rybar that Russia is short on FPV drones in Avdeevka. Despite this we've seen massive use of FABs and repeated use of much rare Izd. 305 missiles. It's possible that the intent isn't to take Stepovoe as fast as possible and instead the intent is to pull Ukraine into exactly this kind of back and forth fighting that requires many units to be pulled from other areas. Perhaps Russia is happy with the casualty ratios they are seeing here. Unclear. Also consider that Russia is advancing along multiple directions in the area. Russian forces are pushing north towards Novokalinovo. The plan may be to take Ocheretino before they take Berdychy suggesting that pushing through Stepovoe isn't a priority. They're also still stuck in the south, so closing the pocket isn't going to happen until Russian forces at least take Orlovka. Lastly Russian forces are pushing into Avdeevka from the south-east and east. They're blocked from the north and north-east by the massive chemical plant. The flank pushes may be meant to keep Ukrainian troops busy while Russia assaults through the city like they did with Artemovsk/Bakhmut. None of these explanations neatly cover all the information we have, and all have holes in them. Really, I just don't know.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
@seaspear It's difficult to know because the Russian Ministry of Defence doesn't know themselves what their casualties really are.
Among the non-official Russian military personnel: There had been at least 40 000 Wagner soldiers (Vagnerites) (probably much more but this is official), 20 000 of them have been killed. Less than 4000 of them were still combat ready when the group dissolved after the revolt.
There is an unknown number of Chechen (Khadirovites) fighters, also in the tens of thousands.
There are also an unknown number of foreign mercenaries but their numbers is more in the thousands than in the tens of thousands. Only 120 from Nepal.
By contrast the number of foreign mercenaries in the Ukrainian forces is much bigger and count in the tens of thousands. In some places they held entire sectors.
There is also semi-forced mobilisation (at first it was voluntary, then gradually, it became mandatory) from the DonBas and Crimea. Also not officially Russian Army. At least 80 000 - 150 000 soldiers. Difficult to know because these ones fight since 2013.

Regular Russian soldiers come from peripheral regions. Putin avoid mobilising youths from Moscow or St Petersburg where the elite live and where public opinion is more active. They also avoid mobilising from region close to Ukraine. A lot come from Buriatia, Kalmukia, East Siberia and from as far as Kamtchatka.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@T.C.P @Feanor The Russians have been late to the drone party. At the beginning of the invasion they didn't even have a single attack drone (I mean a drone able to carry an explosive charge). They only had primitive, almost DIY, observation drones. The Lancet was still experimental at the time of the invasion. It's only when they witnessed the effectiveness of the Bayraktars that they started producing and using them more massively.
It's no surprise that they lack expertise and production facility in this field.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@T.C.P @Feanor The Russians have been late to the drone party. At the beginning of the invasion they didn't even have a single attack drone (I mean a drone able to carry an explosive charge). They only had primitive, almost DIY, observation drones. The Lancet was still experimental at the time of the invasion. It's only when they witnessed the effectiveness of the Bayraktars that they started producing and using them more massively.
It's no surprise that they lack expertise and production facility in this field.
Some corrections. The Orion-S was in service before the invasion. Certainly the Bayraktar TB2 is a much more mature and well developed platform, but Russia had something. Additionally the first appearance of Lancets at an arms expo was reported in iirc 2019. They were used in combat in Syria in Idlib iirc 2021? They might still have been experimental at the start of the war. I can't find an "accepted for service" date for the type. Overall Russia definitely had issues with UAS both in terms of design/production, and employment. That having been said it's been nearly 2 years. At this point reports are that Russia has the advantage in UAS over Ukraine. They're prioritizing a push in Avdeevka, yet are using very limited numbers of Lancets there. The situation is murky.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Some corrections. The Orion-S was in service before the invasion. Certainly the Bayraktar TB2 is a much more mature and well developed platform, but Russia had something. Additionally the first appearance of Lancets at an arms expo was reported in iirc 2019. They were used in combat in Syria in Idlib iirc 2021? They might still have been experimental at the start of the war. I can't find an "accepted for service" date for the type. Overall Russia definitely had issues with UAS both in terms of design/production, and employment. That having been said it's been nearly 2 years. At this point reports are that Russia has the advantage in UAS over Ukraine. They're prioritizing a push in Avdeevka, yet are using very limited numbers of Lancets there. The situation is murky.
There was another smaller kamikaze drone the Kub, looked like a mini shahed, that was used in the first year of the invasion too. I havent seen them in quite some time, so looks like they are have been replaced by the Lancet. The Kubs had much weaker warheads and thevideos I saw of them, they were being used more for ani personnel attacks. FPVS make the Kub obsolete so it makes sense if the Russians stopped producing those.

Saw anotehr video of the Scalpel today (cheaper analog Lancet). But the design still seems experimental and without going into full scale production, I doubt its going be cheaper than the lancet as the creator tries to make it to be.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/18gfvbw
On IFV news, Rus claims thatBumerang is being fielded-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/18erc7f
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There was another smaller kamikaze drone the Kub, looked like a mini shahed, that was used in the first year of the invasion too. I havent seen them in quite some time, so looks like they are have been replaced by the Lancet. The Kubs had much weaker warheads and thevideos I saw of them, they were being used more for ani personnel attacks. FPVS make the Kub obsolete so it makes sense if the Russians stopped producing those.

Saw anotehr video of the Scalpel today (cheaper analog Lancet). But the design still seems experimental and without going into full scale production, I doubt its going be cheaper than the lancet as the creator tries to make it to be.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/18gfvbw
On IFV news, Rus claims thatBumerang is being fielded-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/18erc7f
It's likely parade practice of some sort. Note the red flags. It could also be experimental exploitation. I guess it's possible someone decided to field the Bumerang in combat but Sumy also doesn't make any sense. No major combat there, just cross border raids.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Whoever this is always manages to put a positive spin on the Ukrainian operations. There is also quite a bit of truth here, and it is in English so I can understand it. I hope you find this entertaining and informative.




 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Ilya Kiva, ex-lawmaker in Ukraine who “switched sides” when the war began, found dead in the Moscow region. I would think another “liquidation” by the UA.


Edit: It appears there some kind of confirmation that the SBU killed the guy.

Yep I have seen a UA TV item claiming that he was liquidated. Fair punishment to for a traitor during time of war because the traitor is aiding and abetting the enemy. The UK executed, "Lord Haw Haw", William Joyce, by hanging after he worked broadcasting Goebbel's propaganda.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
PM sent.


Just wanted to point out something here in case others also have an issue with my sources or otherwise. And I think this important in general.

I do not post rubbish sources, as a rule (or I state that the source is/may be rubbish). I believe, for example, Kommersant is a reliable enough source and I stated here so previously. I did reference TASS 3 or 4 times here previously. One was a page or two ago talking about the alleged Armenian delivery of missiles to Ukraine and I specifically indicated that I could not find a better source for the information cited (if I was verse in Armenian, I am sure I would not have such an issue, but we are all limited with the language barriers when dealing with such circumstances). In that situation, however, I also provided the reasoning (my own), with outside references supporting my reasoning and the numbers I provided, indicating why the information is likely valid. That reasoning was also a very brief analysis of the relationship Armenia has with Russia which supported the conclusion that the “leaked info” (Armenia supplying Ukraine with Tochka missiles) was likely false. In my personal opinion, that post, along with the reference to TASS, made this place more informed on the subject matter. If someone believes otherwise or has better information or something I am not aware of to present, that would be great and we can have a reasonable discussion.

The other few times I cited TASS was likely for direct quotes of Putin’s speech, or other Russian politicians. In those cases, it doesn’t matter if it was TASS or Reuters. In fact, TASS would likely be the preferred choice in that case because it would be quoting the exact words the man said, not some (often wild) interpretation of those words. This is the basics of any research and just common sense, really.

Having said above, I rarely quote Kommersant as well because I would very much rather have a western source (that I find reliable) myself and provide such a source presenting the very information I found scrolling through Kommersant.

I have been reading Russian news since they became available on the internet, so I know a thing or two regarding their reliability. I also quoted Lenta here a few times. That one used to be a good outlet, but for the past few years (way before the war, so I guess many years now) the quality declined greatly. However, I would have zero hesitation providing it as a source for what the Russian media is saying about any particular event because that is likely the exact intent of the entire post. Such was the case, for example, with the train derailment in the tunnel a few days ago, for which I also later provided a link to a Kommersant article once I saw it and stated that this is a better source. I also usually provide the Google translate of the articles I cite rather than my own interpretation for three reasons: simply for the convenience of the reader, not to feed the clicks to the outlet, and I provide Google translate vs my own interpretation for consistency and “repeatability” in case others desired to verify it; I also make a separate note if the translation by Google is bad enough that it changes the meaning or some other issue.

I do not believe I had ever posted any of the other sources Ngatimozart mentioned in his post, unless they are hiding in the “etc”, haha (but I very much doubt). However, if circumstances were such that I ran into information provided by those sources that I thought was honest and relevant, I would not hesitate to use any of them. Most obvious examples of such circumstances would be Putin giving an interview to RIA Novosti, Trump giving an interview to Fox or Biden to CNN, other worthy individuals being interviewed by the Sun and it can be a scholar or someone else whose opinion is worthy of reading. This is as opposed to providing the same sources for a few quoted sentences spoken by the same individuals that were specifically presented to the readers in order to promote a certain narrative. Again, this is just common sense and I do not believe there is much confusion about it if any at all.

Nowadays (though it was always the case), pretty much anything reported by any news organization, no matter how reputable, should be taken with caution and application of common sense and critical thinking is a prerequisite to reading. But if we want to label all news outlets of any particular nation as not trustworthy and unreliable, we can do that too, officially. Most, if not all of us, likely have those markers for various nations in our minds to begin with anyway. However, not all of us followed any specific set of news agencies to know the actual difference.

To conclude this post, if anyone has issues with the information presented in my posts, I encourage you to explain what those issues are. This is how we learn and grow. If you think my source is not reliable or there are other issues with it, please speak up. Because I would do the same. To provide an example for the latter, see my reply to Vivendi’s (I think it was) post a couple of pages ago talking about some alleged Russian war crimes in regards to starvation of Ukraine by stealing the grain and oilseeds or some such: I showed with supporting facts why the article was rubbish to begin with and, again with supporting facts, why the allegations by the whatever organization were likely nonsense as well.
You are banned for one week for failing to follow a Moderator's direction WRT to complaining about Moderation in the public fora.

Nagtimozart.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yep I have seen a UA TV item claiming that he was liquidated. Fair punishment to for a traitor during time of war because the traitor is aiding and abetting the enemy. The UK executed, "Lord Haw Haw", William Joyce, by hanging after he worked broadcasting Goebbel's propaganda.
From where I sit, intentionally killing civilians without due process is a crime. It doesn't matter what country they are for. William Joyce was convicted of treason and lawfully executed. Kyva was convicted also and sentenced to 14 years in prison. Not sentenced to death. If Ukraine is responsible, and this seems likely, it's an extrajudicial killing at best and government sanctioned murder in my book. It runs awfully close to state terrorism.

To be frank I have no sympathies for Kyva, he wasn't exactly an upstanding human being. But the question here isn't him per se.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
From where I sit, intentionally killing civilians without due process is a crime. It doesn't matter what country they are for. William Joyce was convicted of treason and lawfully executed. Kyva was convicted also and sentenced to 14 years in prison. Not sentenced to death. If Ukraine is responsible, and this seems likely, it's an extrajudicial killing at best and government sanctioned murder in my book. It runs awfully close to state terrorism.

To be frank I have no sympathies for Kyva, he wasn't exactly an upstanding human being. But the question here isn't him per se.
Agreed about this being unlawful, but If my country was invaded, I would hundred percent support my govt in extra judicially killing traitors abroad. I mean when the invader is raining Kamikaze drowns and missiles at the defending nations civillians and a traitor chooses to run away to that invader, imo he is fair game.

The Russian intelligence, security apparatus need to step up their game. Back when they were funding brexit, pulonium poisoning dissidents on foreign soil, funding conservative and far right groups all across the west and snatching Crimea without any resistance, the Russian Intelligence looked invincible. But their performance since the invasion has been pathetic. They are allowing the Ukrainian SBU to routinely carry out assassinations and sabotages within their own territory.
 
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