The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

If you were to read many of the Ukrainian bloggers they don't believe their attack is spent and detail attacks on that front ,they have shown Oryx recent data to show that Russian material losses approach twice that of Ukraine ,its very difficult to get a understanding of ongoing fighting by just showing footage of individual hardware losses and perhaps a better source should be from more neutral posters, Russian advances elsewhere may be questioned to there strategic value open fields e.t.c and suggest that payment bonuses of territorial gains is the prime motive for those attacks

 

[T.C.P]

If you were to read many of the Ukrainian bloggers they don't believe their attack is spent and detail attacks on that front ,they have shown Oryx recent data to show that Russian material losses approach twice that of Ukraine ,its very difficult to get a understanding of ongoing fighting by just showing footage of individual hardware losses and perhaps a better source should be from more neutral posters, Russian advances elsewhere may be questioned to there strategic value open fields e.t.c and suggest that payment bonuses of territorial gains is the prime motive for those attacks

Just want to point out, that Oryx is super slow in updating Ukraine losses. And yes Russia is losing artillery peieces at rdiciulous rate, but Oryx is pretty poor in counting Ukr losses.

 

[KipPotapych]

they have shown Oryx recent data to show that Russian material losses approach twice that of Ukraine

This does not appear to be the case in Zaparozhia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710401821334757492

And yes, loss of artillery is quite significant for the Russians.

 

[Feanor]

If you were to read many of the Ukrainian bloggers they don't believe their attack is spent and detail attacks on that front ,they have shown Oryx recent data to show that Russian material losses approach twice that of Ukraine ,its very difficult to get a understanding of ongoing fighting by just showing footage of individual hardware losses and perhaps a better source should be from more neutral posters, Russian advances elsewhere may be questioned to there strategic value open fields e.t.c and suggest that payment bonuses of territorial gains is the prime motive for those attacks

To the best of my knowledge there are no new units left to commit in Zaporozhye. Ukraine will try more attacks but the point was to break through and insert a maneuver element. If you can't break through only slowly push through (slowly enough for Russia to add lines behind the current ones) then it doesn't work. If you have nothing left to insert into a breakthrough you can't exploit. I'm not saying Ukraine won't take Verbovoe or Novoprokopovka. They might. Then again they might not. But that wasn't the point of any of this. The point was to break through the lines and threaten the ground link to Crimea. That's not happening.

 

[KipPotapych]

Tokmak was/is the minimum goal of the offensive, as per Tarnavsky. I would assume that was probably a revised goal too because it was officially announced just a couple of weeks ago or so.

“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”

Ukrainian forces have broken through in Verbove, top general says | CNN

The general leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front line says his forces have broken through in Verbove – and predicts an even bigger breakthrough to come.

amp.cnn.com

 

[seaspear]

To the best of my knowledge there are no new units left to commit in Zaporozhye. Ukraine will try more attacks but the point was to break through and insert a maneuver element. If you can't break through only slowly push through (slowly enough for Russia to add lines behind the current ones) then it doesn't work. If you have nothing left to insert into a breakthrough you can't exploit. I'm not saying Ukraine won't take Verbovoe or Novoprokopovka. They might. Then again they might not. But that wasn't the point of any of this. The point was to break through the lines and threaten the ground link to Crimea. That's not happening.

this is one of the bloggers claiming to cite ORYX on comparable losses

 

[Feanor]

this is one of the bloggers claiming to cite ORYX on comparable losses

I don't know if I buy his conclusions. His details on the fighting are things I've seen already. Some of them aren't even accurate. Like the part about UK instructors. He claims Russia has admitted sending conscripts to the war zone. I'm not sure what he's referring to there. All in all this seems like a fairly typical Ukraine Stronk channel without much of anything interesting there. None of this confirms the idea that Ukraine is about to break through Russian lines in any operationally meaningful sense.

 

[SinisterMinister]

If you were to read many of the Ukrainian bloggers they don't believe their attack is spent and detail attacks on that front ,they have shown Oryx recent data to show that Russian material losses approach twice that of Ukraine ,its very difficult to get a understanding of ongoing fighting by just showing footage of individual hardware losses and perhaps a better source should be from more neutral posters, Russian advances elsewhere may be questioned to there strategic value open fields e.t.c and suggest that payment bonuses of territorial gains is the prime motive for those attacks

Kind of galling to me that there still appears to be no better source than Oryx cited widely on equipment losses. Do we even know who Oryx is? Why should we believe they are honest? Or have enough expertise to both collate and correctly identify all the available evidence?

I've seen very little in the way of exhaustive audits of their work (reasonable I suppose, who has the time?). But more surprising to me is that no reputable media outlets have made even the slightest attempt to do the same work. The reporting on this war by mainstream media (with a few notable exceptions) seems extremely lazy.

 

[Feanor]

Kind of galling to me that there still appears to be no better source than Oryx cited widely on equipment losses. Do we even know who Oryx is? Why should we believe they are honest? Or have enough expertise to both collate and correctly identify all the available evidence?

I've seen very little in the way of exhaustive audits of their work (reasonable I suppose, who has the time?). But more surprising to me is that no reputable media outlets have made even the slightest attempt to do the same work. The reporting on this war by mainstream media (with a few notable exceptions) seems extremely lazy.

Oryx posts his sources in the forms of images. You're welcome to audit them yourself.

 

[Pukovnik7]

Kind of galling to me that there still appears to be no better source than Oryx cited widely on equipment losses. Do we even know who Oryx is? Why should we believe they are honest? Or have enough expertise to both collate and correctly identify all the available evidence?

I've seen very little in the way of exhaustive audits of their work (reasonable I suppose, who has the time?). But more surprising to me is that no reputable media outlets have made even the slightest attempt to do the same work. The reporting on this war by mainstream media (with a few notable exceptions) seems extremely lazy.

This:

Oryx posts his sources in the forms of images. You're welcome to audit them yourself.

You have to understand that there is not a big difference between "mainstream media" and bloggers, at least in terms of quality. In fact, bloggers and youtubers may often achieve better quality because they tend to be people who are passionate about the stuff they are writing, whereas journalists... aren't; at least, journalists of mainstream outlets aren't. Specialist publications are another matter, as people there tend to be topic experts, passionate about their work, or both at the same time.

To the best of my knowledge there are no new units left to commit in Zaporozhye. Ukraine will try more attacks but the point was to break through and insert a maneuver element. If you can't break through only slowly push through (slowly enough for Russia to add lines behind the current ones) then it doesn't work. If you have nothing left to insert into a breakthrough you can't exploit. I'm not saying Ukraine won't take Verbovoe or Novoprokopovka. They might. Then again they might not. But that wasn't the point of any of this. The point was to break through the lines and threaten the ground link to Crimea. That's not happening.

That, I think, was never going to happen. Maneuver warfare only ever really worked when one side was significantly outmatched in terms of quality, or at least, significantly outmaneuvered. In Ukraine however, neither was the case. Still, it is easy to be a general after the battle...

I wonder if either side is using something akin to German or Austro-Hungarian infiltration tactics...

 

[seaspear]

There are a few articles on the Dutch open intelligence site ,they generally put claims to weapons systems lost with photo identification and would expect to be in the conservative in this , I added the above post suggesting that Russia too is having very losses its very easy to post from just one side of material losses Russia it should be remembered is bringing in material that dates from before any of us were born and is having to go cap in hand to Iran and North Korea for more that shows a scales of usage and losses not seen since the second world war

 

[Feanor]

It appears Russia has struck for Avdeevka again, this time after an intense bombing and artillery bombardment. Mi-28Ns have been spotted doing CAS with LMURs (Izd. 305s) and there are reportedly 2 attack directions. One is from the north towards Berdychy, the other is from the south pressuring the town directly. There are reported gains in both directions, including a capture of a tactically significant mound, and Russia forces reaching the outskirts of Berdychy. At the same time as this Russian forces launched an attack on the Oskol front towards Makeevk and Nevskoe, on the Zherebets river. Lastly Russia launched local attacks around Novomikhailovka (between Mar'inka and Ugledar), Pyatihatka (re-capturing some mostly no-man's land that it may not be possible to hold in the first place), and Kupyansk (towards Sin'kovka). I will try to make an update post later tonight covering the details. Hopefully by then the fog of war lifts somewhat and we can see the results of the assault of Avdeevka. It seems to be the main effort, with other attacks being opportunistic in nature except the one at Novomihailovka, where it's likely preparation for attacking that village. Russia has been bombing there regularly for the past several days.

 

[vikingatespam]

Kind of galling to me that there still appears to be no better source than Oryx cited widely on equipment losses. Do we even know who Oryx is? Why should we believe they are honest? Or have enough expertise to both collate and correctly identify all the available evidence?

I've seen very little in the way of exhaustive audits of their work (reasonable I suppose, who has the time?). But more surprising to me is that no reputable media outlets have made even the slightest attempt to do the same work. The reporting on this war by mainstream media (with a few notable exceptions) seems extremely lazy.

We know that Oryx audits the entries and some days you will see roll-backs in the # quoted.

Orxy has been around for some time and pre-dates the RU invasion by several years.

 

[SinisterMinister]

Oryx posts his sources in the forms of images. You're welcome to audit them yourself.

Somehow this is always the response, and yet no one does it (or if they do it is never posted publicly). I lack the time, and the expertise to do it properly. You would think someone who has both would try it, but instead all you get when you bring up the lack of oversight are calls to do it yourself.

 

[SinisterMinister]

You have to understand that there is not a big difference between "mainstream media" and bloggers, at least in terms of quality. In fact, bloggers and youtubers may often achieve better quality because they tend to be people who are passionate about the stuff they are writing, whereas journalists... aren't; at least, journalists of mainstream outlets aren't. Specialist publications are another matter, as people there tend to be topic experts, passionate about their work, or both at the same time.

Maybe they are of better quality, but they lack the editorial oversight of actual media publications. It's one thing if you can show your work demonstrably, in a manner that is easy to understand. But a project like Oryx's is practically screaming for multiple independent reviews, and for some reason media and bloggers cite their figures without even the slightest hesitation.

We know that Oryx audits the entries and some days you will see roll-backs in the # quoted.



Orxy has been around for some time and pre-dates the RU invasion by several years.

So I'm supposed to trust Oryx because they audit their own work (to an unknown extent)? I realize they have been around awhile. I'm not saying they are up to anything nefarious. I'm saying it's weird/frustrating that the best and maybe only source for equipment loss statistics, one that is cited by practically every media publication in the West, is an independent blog with no oversight, and apparently nobody with credentials cares to check their work.

Imagine if we applied these standards to anything that actually mattered.

 

[Feanor]

Somehow this is always the response, and yet no one does it (or if they do it is never posted publicly). I lack the time, and the expertise to do it properly. You would think someone who has both would try it, but instead all you get when you bring up the lack of oversight are calls to do it yourself.

Early into the conflict I went though ~200 of his entries and one found one mistake. The volume of work involved is massive. Oryx gets his information from mostly Ukrainian sources and the confirmation of some of the destroyed vehicles is iffy, but so is his Russian counterpart lostarmour. If you check Ukrainian losses on the two resources, the totals are awfully close together, suggesting that whether accurate or not, in general this is the information available. Many have speculated, and some allegedly Russian military sources have claimed (social media, hard to confirm), that Russia does a much poorer job documenting destroyed enemy vehicles and generally releases and lower percentage of their footage. This might mean Ukrainian losses are undercounted. It might not. It might not even be true. But it seems to me that Oryx is as good as it gets for this conflict. And considering he's OSINT, and does this for free, it's an extremely impressive project. If you want to dig further into this, you can do some vehicle recognition studying to understand vehicles, camo patterns, and tactical markings from the two sides. Then have a run at what he's provided and see what you make of it. If this is too much for you to do, don't be surprised if it's too much for others. As for media sources quoting Oryx, main stream media has consistently put out trash on all sides of this conflict. I generally wouldn't bother with them. They quote Oryx because it's easy, relatively credible, and they're lazy and don't have the resources to do journalism right these days.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Donetsk Area.

Russia has launched another major assault on Avdeevka. In my memory this is the third major assault of Avdeevka. The attack seems to have 3 main directions and one secondary one. The major attacks are pincers from the south and the north-east, intended to encircle the town. There is also a major push from the south-east, into the outskirts of the town itself. Note Russia's northern pincer is quite a salient, and likely unsustainable without further advances. Note according to rybar Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Berdychy and are digging in in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-attack.

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Авдеевку: взятие стратегической высоты под Красногоровкой обстановка к исходу 10 октября 2023 года Российские войска продолжают операцию по штурму Авдеевского укрепрайона. ▪️У окраин села Бердычи по-прежнему идут бои. Бойцы российской армии закрепились на северо-восточных...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/11/20231011002821-32c13147.jpg

Russian Mi-28Ns doing LMUR strikes towards targets in Avdeevka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly Ukrainian infantry pulling back near Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Солдаты ВСУ в спешке бросают свои позиции на Авдеевском направлении. Видео сняли бойцы батальона «Югра». На кадрах видно, что украинские военные даже не пытаются помочь раненым сослуживцам. Ранее было опубликовано видео ударов российских вертолётов по позициям ВСУ на Авдеевском направлении...

t.me

Smoke rising over Avdeevka after a series of Russian strikes.

Colonelcassad

Российская авиация атакует украинских оккупантов на Авдеевском направлении В любое время дня и ночи, штурмовая авиация ВКС РФ уничтожает опорные пункты украинских националистов в окрестностях населённого пункта Авдеевка. https://t.me/nm_dnr/11084 - цинк ВС РФ также добились за утро некоторых...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Авдеевка в данные минуты. С 4 утра наши военные наносят удары по позициям всу в данном населенном пункте. @rtrdonetsk

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Горящий авдеевский коксохим. Ожесточенные бои к северу и югу от города продолжаются. Ждем результатов.

t.me

Russia also struck the rail yard in Ocheretino, north-west out of Berdychy. It's unlikely Ukraine would use the rail lines to get in, but a large stone building could have been a location for supplies or even reserves to stage.

Colonelcassad

В Очеретино (к северо-западу от Авдеевки) разрушен железнодорожный вокзал. Также зацепили силы противника, которые перебрасывались через Очеретино на авдеевское направление.

t.me

Another Russian attack took place at Novomihailovka. Russia has spent several days bombing the village, and now have seized two important hills, taking over Ukrainian strong points there. Two other hills are still under Ukrainian control. All would likely need to fall to assault the village. If on the other hand Russia takes the heights, the village likely becomes untenable for Ukraine.

Рыбарь

❗️ Южно-Донецкое направление: продвижение ВС РФ к югу от Новомихайловки обстановка к исходу 8 октября 2023 года Как мы сегодня написали, российские войска перешли в контратаку с ограниченными тактическими целями на нескольких участках фронта. Одним из районов активизации ВС РФ стала...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/08/20231008202759-fe7d1c4a.jpg

Zaporozhye and Surroundings.

Russia launched a local counter-attack near Pyatihatka, capturing a previously lost position. It's part of a series of attacks likely intended to pin down as many Ukrainian units as possible. Some of the attacks are more significant, some purely opportunistic, this one is clearly the latter.

Рыбарь

Ореховский участок: активизация ВС РФ у Жеребянок обстановка по состоянию на 15.00 10 октября 2023 года Из-за отсутствия успехов под Ореховом и начавшейся осенней распутицы украинское командование сконцентрировалось на расширении зоны вклинивания между Работино и Вербовым. ▪️Для усиления...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/10/20231010152135-c7566e93.jpg

A Russian counter-attack near Novoprokopovka. This is our first confirmation of Ukrainian forces in the outskirts.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Атака у Работино: разведка ведёт зачистку Новопрокоповки от боевиков ВСУ На Запорожском фронте разведка 42 мсд ЮВО зачистила окраину Новопрокоповки, на которую ранее проникли штурмовые группы ВСУ. Наши бойцы успешно провели операцию, село под контролем армии России. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia struck another Ukrainian combat jet at the Dolgintsevo airbase. Previously they struck a MiG-29 there. Note, this was allegedly done using a new longer-ranged loitering munition and is the 4th Ukrainian jet to get hit recently.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение украинского штурмовика Су-25 на аэродроме Долгинцево. Кажется, кто-то был не в курсе, что "Ланцеты" теперь летают дальше. Видео https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/20832

t.me

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vk.com

A closer look at the S-300 recently struck by a Tornado-S. It appears Russia hit two TELs and a radar. The explosions suggest these aren't decoys. Russia truck iirc 3 S-300s and some IRIS-T in Nikolaev area previously. Russia also hit a P-18 radar in Nikolaev area.

Рубрика от Ледка

5П85С - уничтожена Южнее с. Зеленое в Николаевской области. Геопривязка LA: (46.921583, 31.741556) Еще одна ПУ С-300ПС сожженная предположительно ударом "Торнадо-С" Источник ; №2

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

5П85С - уничтожена Южнее с. Зеленое в Николаевской области. Геопривязка LA: (46.922318, 31.741223) ПУ С-300ПС ВСУ сожженная, предположительно ударом РСЗО "Торнадо-С" Источник ; №2

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

40В6М с 30Н6 - поражена У с. Зеленое. Николаевской области. Геопривязка РЛ: (46.922156, 31.739935) Ракетный удар по позиции РПН на передвижной вышке из комплекса С-300ПС… Источник ; №2

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

1РЛ131 П-18 "Терек" - уничтожен Северо-восточнее с. Старая Богдановка в Николаевской области. Геопривязка LA: (46.862700, 31.922200) Предположительно, РЛС поражена ударом "Торнадо-С" Источник ; №2

t.me

Interesting tidbits.

Russia attacked on the Oskol front towards Makeevka and Nevskoe. This is a another in a series of attacks out of Svatovo that have been slowly gaining ground over the past few months. There is no immediate significance. Even if Russia took the villages it still wouldn't make or break the situation. It's likely this is part of efforts to tie down Ukrainian forces.

Рыбарь

❗️ Сватовский участок: продвижение ВС РФ к Макеевке и бои у Невского обстановка по состоянию на 16.00 10 октября 2023 года Российские войска перешли в контрнатаку не только на Ореховском и Донецком направлениях: вот уже несколько дней идёт штурм опорных пунктов противника на направлении...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/10/20231010150130-9e826d33.jpg

Russia hit another Caesar. I'm losing count, but the longer range loitering munitions and increase in Russian UAV ops is taking its toll. Location on this one is unclear. Prior to this we had reports of Caesars near Ugledar, and the new batch with Tatra chassis in Zaporozhye.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A pair of Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdanas on differet chassis, with Ukrainian 1st SpN Bde. The type seems to be in low-rate production, possibly in another country. Though it's also possible prototypes were simple brought to condition and are being used.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[T.C.P]

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Атака у Работино: разведка ведёт зачистку Новопрокоповки от боевиков ВСУ На Запорожском фронте разведка 42 мсд ЮВО зачистила окраину Новопрокоповки, на которую ранее проникли штурмовые группы ВСУ. Наши бойцы успешно провели операцию, село под контролем армии России. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia struck another Ukrainian combat jet at the Dolgintsevo airbase. Previously they struck a MiG-29 there. Note, this was allegedly done using a new longer-ranged loitering munition and is the 4th Ukrainian jet to get hit recently.

Is this not the same incident? I remember russian sources claiming that they hit 5+ aircraft that day. So far they have released 2 Mig-29 videos sspaced out by a few days and now this Su-25. It looks like they are slwoly drip feeding the videos of that one successful attack.

 

[Feanor]

Is this not the same incident? I remember russian sources claiming that they hit 5+ aircraft that day. So far they have released 2 Mig-29 videos sspaced out by a few days and now this Su-25. It looks like they are slwoly drip feeding the videos of that one successful attack.

It's certainly possible. If true, it would make it one hell of a strike. I mostly dismissed 5 as a fib, and assumed they got one with a loitering munition and another with a cruise missile. At least one of the strikes though was on a different airfield.

 

[T.C.P]

It's certainly possible. If true, it would make it one hell of a strike. I mostly dismissed 5 as a fib, and assumed they got one with a loitering munition and another with a cruise missile. At least one of the strikes though was on a different airfield.

The cruise missile would probably be the 4th strike you mention. So far I recall 3 Lancet strikes. 1 that hit the top of a Mig-29, 1 that missed but hit right infront of a Mig-29 causing damage and this one on the Su-25.