The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Larry_L]

Ukraine continues it's destruction of Russian ammunition wherever possible. This video is from supposedly from yesterday in the Donetsk area. A drone spots a courtyard with what looks like MRLS ammunition. The attack starts a with a small explosion that keeps growing. I suspect there was much more ammunition in the buildings than was seen in the courtyard.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676503203939069952

Twitter has been problematic for people that do not have an account, ore not logged in. Hope this link works. Today has been better than the last couple of days.

 

[Feanor]

This is what I have hinted at earlier: use of tactical nuke will trigger a very strong response from some NATO countries (but initially not NATO as such, just the 3 with their own nukes):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676637284773363744

I think that conclusion is accurate. Dropping a nuke or two on Ukraine wouldn't accomplish much unless they were countervalue strikes. If Russia were to go nuclear the only viable method would be to drop dozens of nukes, maybe severing every bridge across the Dnepr, maybe oblitherating an entire section of the front line.

 

[Feanor]

Ok I don't think I can work down the backlog. I've been busy for a week and am now more behind then ever (something like 2000+ links to go through). I will focus on points of interest and pieces that I find informative or out of the ordinary from here on out.

Here's a small bucket of footage from the continuing fighting around Zaporozhye.

No major movement has taken place so far. Pyatihatka remains contested. Ukraine's still trying to attack Rabotino but failing to make significant gains. After taking Rovnopol', Ukrainian forces are stuck north of Staromayorskoe. Reportedly Ukraine has switched tactics from using heavy mechanized formations to attacking with small infantry teams attempting to infiltrate Russian positions. It's unclear whether this is due to heavy losses of vehicles, or a change of tactics. Possibly both.

Ukrainian artillery, Zaporozhye. Note the anti-UAV netting.

Moscow calling

Работа артиллерии ВСУ на Запорожском направлении. "Антиланцетные" сетки в наличии.

t.me

Russian Zemledelie remote minelayer firing towards Orekhov. Note we've had unconfirmed reports of Russia using these to mine the path behind Ukrainian forces that entered minefields, making it hard for them to reinforce or withdraw.

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vk.com

BARS-11 posing with a downed Storm Shadow in Zaporozhye.

Moscow calling

Предположительно, сбитая английская малозаметная крылатая ракета авиационного базирования Storm Shadow. Фото бойцов казачьего отряда "Кубань" (БАРС-11) с Запорожского направления.

t.me

40th Marines firing TOS-1s, Zaporozhye area.

Colonelcassad

40-я бригада морской пехоты применяет "Солнцепёки" по позициям врага на Южно-Донецком направлении. @zov_kam

t.me

A pile of knocked out/destroyed Ukrainian vehicles near Orekhov. We have MRAPs, M113s, and an MBT with a mine trawl.

Colonelcassad

Очередное кладбище техники укронацистов. Южный фронт, Ореховской направление. Видео @berloga_life

t.me

A series of Ukrainian howitzers, allegedly an M-109 and Krabs, getting hit. Zaporozhye area.

Месть доброй воли

А у нас снова зажигательные видео от Богов войны: 1 видео и фото - точное попадание в САУ с детонацией БК. Предположительно, M-109 Paladin. 2 и 3 видео - уничтожение САУ AHS Krab. Kurwa. 4 видео - последствия прилета по Крабу. Доразведка. Каменское направление, Запорожский фронт. Июль 2023 г...

t.me

A Russian Ka-52 taking out a Strela-10. Note the Strela-10 appears to be active, but the Vikhr-1 ATGM outrages it comfortably (5km vs 10km range).

Moscow calling

Трагедия в одном акте - дуэль между украинским ЗРК "Стрела-10М" с дальностью стрельбы до 5 км, и российским вертолётом Ка-52 с дальностью пуска ПТРК "Вихрь" до 10 км, с немного предсказуемым результатом. В условиях отсутствия в странах НАТО войскового ПВО с дальностью стрельбы не менее 10 км...

t.me

Ukrainian GMZ-3 minelayer getting hit by an FPV drone and catching fire.

Рубрика от Ледка

ГМЗ-3 - уничтожен В Запорожской области. Расчет FPV-дрона из состава неназванного подразделения ВС РФ поджег минный заградитель ВСУ. Эксклюзив канала: ТРОЙКА Источник ID LostArmour #FPV

t.me

A Ukrainian MRAP, Zaporozhye, hits a land mine then gets finished off by ATGM fire.

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vk.com

First confirmed destruction of an AS-90 in Zaporozhye. I don't know what hit it but that crater is no joke.

Colonelcassad

AS-90 - уничтожена Севернее с. Малые Щербаки в Васильевский район Запорожской области. Привязка: (47.573502, 35.537644) Британская САУ подбита в ходе КББ. Тип опознается по геометрии ящиков на корме. Месть доброй воли

t.me

A pair of destroyed Oshkosh M-ATVs. The front of the pair appears to be carrying a mine trawl. I didn't even know they had them for MRAPs.

Рубрика от Ледка

Oshkosh M-ATV Г/н №5807 E6 - уничтожен Вблизи пгт. Благодатное в Волновахском районе Донецкой области. Обстоятельства гибели разобранного MRAP’а неизвестны… Видео от украинской стороны. Оригинал ID LostArmour

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Oshkosh M-ATV - уничтожен Вблизи пгт. Благодатное в Волновахском районе Донецкой области. Обстоятельства гибели неизвестны, разобран на запчасти. Видео от украинской стороны. Оригинал ID LostArmour

t.me

A pair of destroyed Mastiff MRAPs near Novodonetskoe. That village has a real graveyard of wheeled vehicles. Not sure why it was chosen as a target for almost exclusively wheeled vehicles, maybe the terrain makes it more feasible, but it hasn't worked out.

Рубрика от Ледка

Mastiff PPV - уничтожен В юго-западной части н.п Новодонецкое в Донецкой области. Привязка: (47.751971, 36.955469) Расчет ББ: «Ланцет-3» из состава ОБТФ ДНР Каскад поразил MRAP ВСУ. Датировано: 04.06.2023. Эксклюзив канала: ОБТФ Каскад Источник ; №2 ; №3 ID LostArmour #Ланцет

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Mastiff PPV - уничтожен В северо-западной части пгт. Новодонецкое Донецкой области. Привязка: (47.756472, 36.956167) Доставшийся трофеем бойцам ОБТФ ДНР Каскад MRAP, не восстановим силами рембата. Датировано: 04.06.2023. Эксклюзив канала: Военкор Андрей Камыжикин Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

A Ukrainain BMP-2 getting hit near Levadnoe.

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-2 - уничтожена Восточнее с. Левадное в Гуляйпольском районе Запорожской области. Привязка: (47.740185, 36.612378) Расчет FPV-дрона из состава 336-й гвардейской ОБрМП сжег БМП ВСУ. Эксклюзив канала: ТРОЙКА Источник Геопривязка #FPV

t.me

Ukrainian T-80BV and T-64BV getting hit. Note pre-war Ukraine had homeopathic quantities of T-80BVs. Most of the ones they're using are likely captured.

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-80БВ - уничтожен В Запорожской области. Расчет ББ: «Ланцет-3» из группировки [V] сжег танк ВСУ. Эксклюзив канала: Воин DV Источник #Ланцет

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A pair of destroyed YPR-765s and a M113AS4 ALV. The latter have been used as regular APCs in Ukrainian service.

Рубрика от Ледка

M113 - уничтожен В районе с. Малая Токмачка Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.4921966, 35.916906) Зaявлено, как результаты работы бойцов 58-й ОА. Источник

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

YPR-765A1 - поврежден и брошен Вблизи с. Малая Токмачка в Ореховском районе Запорожской области. Предположительно, подорвался на мине в участке ответсвенности 58-й ОА. Эксклюзив канала: Воин DV Источник

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

M113AS4 ALV - уничтожен Вблизи с. Малая Токмачка Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.492701, 35.916963). Подбили и этот бронетранспортер бойцы 58-й ОА. Эксклюзив канала: Воин DV Источник

t.me

An interesting video where a Ukrainian T-64BV gets hit by a dual-warhead RPG but the main charge of the warhead apparently fails to detonate, so the tank survives.

Moscow calling

Прилёт двух тандемных кумулятивных выстрелов ПГ-7ВР "Резюме" в борт танка Т-64БВ 35-й ОБрМП ВСУ, который слишком близко подобрался к российским позициям на южном направлении. Несмотря на солидную бронепробиваемость (650 мм за ДЗ), танк, по словам экипажа, смог отойти немного покоцанным. P. S...

t.me

Some evidence of Ukrainian gliding bomb use in Zaporozhye.

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A Leo-2 gets hit by a Lancet.

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vk.com

Another destroyed MaxxPro.

Рубрика от Ледка

International MaxxPro Б/н №130 - уничтожен В Запорожской области. Американский MRAP подорвался на мине. Датировано: 12.06.2023. Оригинал ; Источник

t.me

A Ukrainian column near Makarovka drives into heavy artillery fire. Note the wheeled vehicle, is that an XA-180? Possibly the one we saw destroyed earlier?

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Close up photos of the two destroyed Leo-2A6s with a Bradley from early in the offensive.

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vk.com

Крысоты в ленту:

Очередная Дорога смерти Упокоительные картинки... (мужики, для Кубинки что-нибудь оставьте!)

afirsov.livejournal.com

A close up of two destroyed HMBVs, likely the ones we've seen before (iirc a total of 3 were taken out).

Colonelcassad

Подбитые финские машины разминирования Leopard 2R HMBV вблизи.

t.me

For reference the two links above are closeups of this particular massacre where Ukraine lost 2 Leo-2A6s, a Bradley, 3 HMBVs, a MaxxPro and other vehicles. This was early in the offensive and one of two particularly spectacular failed attacks, coupled with the one where Ukraine managed to lose two entire Bradley platoons, as well as other vehicles. The areas where this took place are now under Ukrainian control so anything Russia didn't finish off or haul away can now be salvaged.

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vk.com

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vk.com

Ukraine evacuating knocked out Bradleys and a T-64BV. Note it's unclear whether we've seen these knocked out vehicles before or not.

Moscow calling

Запорожское направление, эвакуация повреждённой техники ВСУ. На видео две Bradley M2A2, танк Т-64БВ, инженерная машина ИМР-2, а также эвакуирующая их БРЭМ Bergepanzer 2 на базе "Леопарда-1". Техника была повреждена в первые дни активизации боевых действий, и разошлась по всем телеграм-каналам...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Очередная подбитая американская БМП "Брэдли" на Запорожском направлении. Украинские боевики пытаются эвакуировать машину. @evgeniy_lisitsyn

t.me

Ukrainian forces hauling away a burned out Bradley. While it clearly can't be rebuilt, Ukraine has been very diligent about hauling away destroyed vehicles.

Рубрика от Ледка

M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley - уничтожена В Запорожской области. Остов сгоревшей американской БМП тащат куда-то в тыл. Видео от украинской стороны. Оригинал ID LostArmour

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Other interesting tidbits.

Allegedly a Stormer getting hit near Ugledar. Quality is low but it looks about right. Note while the type is relatively modern, it appears to be insufficient for the current war.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение артиллерийским ударом украинского ЗРК FV4333 Stormer HVM на Угледарском направлении. Кадры от @voin_dv

t.me

Russia's 98th VDV has Syrian enlisted in it. Note these are presented as regular service members. The Russian military does allow foreign enlistment, but getting foreign service members from far outside the former USSR is unusual. Of course from an opportunity standpoint, under normal circumstances service in the Russian military for some Syrian working-class or farm boy young man can be very advantageous since it would allow them to get Russian citizenship, certainly pays better then most things would in Syria, and opens the door to either a law enforcement career or something in the private sector. But under current conditions, a bloody meatgrinder, this is questionable. I have suspicions that these might be Syrian soldiers that have been put in Russian kit for the current conflict. So far this is the only photo and only source I have so we will have to wait and see if this becomes a trend.

Colonelcassad

Сирийские товарищи в 98-й дивизии ВДВ ВС РФ.

t.me

Another T-55 echelon. I count 13 but we can't see the front. 18 would be a reasonable guess, since they're being used as artillery units in terms of organization. One of them has decorative painting on it suggesting it comes from a park or an exposition.

"В бой идут одни старики!..."

gurkhan.blogspot.com

A rare Russian Vystrel armored car with extra armor. Note the type is generally fairly unimpressive, and the original design goes back to the 90s.

"Выстрел" с решётками.

Нечастый "Выстрел" с решетками на бортах.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Уголок Ситха

Нечасто встречающийся на дорогах СВО КАМАЗ-43269 "Выстрел", причём с дополнительными бортовыми экранами. #сво #бронеавтомобили

t.me

First sighting of the Tatra chassis Caesars in Ukrainian service. They received 19.

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vk.com

A column of the MT-LB 2M-3Ms. So far their only known user is Russian Pacific Fleet Marines, likely the 155th, thought possibly also the 40th.

МТЛБ: в кильватерной колонне

Теперь про них только военно - морская тематика :) Интересно: трактор сзади тоже переделают? :)

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Allegedly Ukraine has mounted 2M-3M ship turret on a truck. Note it's unclear, this might be a forced perspective.

Ну вот и ВСУ решилось

Правда пока не на МТЛБ на на Камаз (?)

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A look at some old tank shells Russian forces have received in Lugansk region. Considering this, 1939 vintage shells aren't that strange.

Moscow calling

Боеприпасы, поставляемые ВС РФ на Луганском направлении. Представляю, какого танкистам - это как на рынке среди гнилой черешни выбирать более-менее норм, по ягодке...

t.me

Russia shows off their own MT-LB/MT-12 hybrid. This is a logical combination in principle though of course it's a case of using what you have.

МТ-12-ЛБ.

Вот и у российской армии появился свой вариант самоходной рапиры на базе МТ-ЛБ. Самоходка изготовленная добровольцами с Дальнего Востока в общем и целом повторяет аналог с другой стороны фронта : орудие установлено сверху, часть крыши вместе с задними люками вырезана. Впрочем и отличия имеются:…

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Ukrainian 406th Artillery using a Ford F-350 to tow a howitzer. Note while this can be done, you have to do much more then tow the gun, you have to carry a lot of other supplies. And this is a sign that Ukraine is short of real army trucks.

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A Ukrainian Leo-2 with K-1 and rubber covers. This looks odd but is actually a sensible move that Ukraine should seek to replicate on it's CR-2s as well as Leo-2A4s. Note the Leo-2A4 in particular is from 1979 making it practically older then the venerable K-1 being plastered all over it.

Moscow calling

Кашу маслом не испортишь, а танк "Леопард-2" - динамической защитой "Контакт-1".

t.me

Another shot of Ukraine's lonely 2S22 Bogdana, now with an armored cabin. The program appears to still be under development though it's a questionable choice considering the situation.

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In Ivano-Frankovsk Ukraine has declared a total mobilization. This could be related to large casualties from the current offensive.

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A rare Wagner Chekan armored truck in the war zone.

Colonelcassad

Нечасто попадающий в кадры бронетранспортёр "Чекан" на базе УРаЛ 432007 0111-31 с башней от БТР-80 в зоне СВО. @Ugolok_Sitha

t.me

 

[T.C.P]

Russian Zemledelie remote minelayer firing towards Orekhov. Note we've had unconfirmed reports of Russia using these to mine the path behind Ukrainian forces that entered minefields, making it hard for them to reinforce or withdraw.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

This is confirmed and they are using a lot more systems older than the Zemledelie for that. There are videos around of improvised MLRS mine layers being shot off of technicals and MTLBs.

There was a big interview from a commander from the Ukr 47th (one of their premier offensive guards) about how much an advantage Russia has ot them over mining . This was after that infamous video came out of Ukr medics in a bradley being trapped in an anti personnel minefield with over 7 pairs of blown up ankes. I posted the video a while back in this thread, and I will try to find the interview as well.

According to the interview the sheer scale of russian mining especially in areas like Orekhiv is daunting. previously demined areas get remined from a distance and those anti personnel mines are very difficult to get rid off or spot.

 

[Feanor]

Interesting tidbits.

Note, I'm clearing through my backlog so this is an assortment of stuff from the past 2 months.

One of Ukraine's older strikes on Shebekno used Grad-launched flechette munitions, a particularly nasty choice given it's a town full of people.

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Russian BMD-4M using their 100mm as indirect fire near Kremennaya.

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vk.com

A look at a Russian MT-LBu with a S-60 (57mm). The S-60 has made a real comeback in this war. Reportedly this one was captured by the 76th VDV.

"Раздуплятор"(2) .

Трофейный МТ-ЛБУ стал базой для другого "Раздуплятора" ВС РФ. Все та же 76ВДД.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

МТЛБ, теперь и У

Видимо тот самый, что был у нас тут чуточку раньше , другим ракурсом.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

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vk.com

And another Russian MT-LB, this one a regular not a U, with an S-60.

Маталыга вечна.

МТ-ЛБв с 57мм С-60. П.С. до армии я не был знаком с МТ-ЛБ, и не очень серьёзно к ней относился. После, я очень уважаю людей, кто еë создал и нужен памятник им и тягачу. Такого насилия я не видел ни над одним образцом ВТ. А уж что она наша "Акула" пережила. Хвала конструкторам!

shusharmor.livejournal.com

And an S-60 married to a T-55 chassis. Not the worst idea in principle but again, it's ersatz.

Moscow calling

Чу-чу мазафака! 57-мм зенитная пушка С-60 на шасси танка Т-55, где-то в зоне СВО в составе ВС РФ.

t.me

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vk.com

Мировая классика

В зоне проведения СВО на вооружении ВС РФ засветился вот такой пепелац - 57-мм орудие С-60 установленное на шасси танка Т-54/55. Изобретение не новое, подобные боевые машины изготавливались в разных странах как для вооруженных сил, так и различными "по настрою" вооруженными формированиями Судя по…

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

И еще одна новинка ВС РФ

И еще одна новинка ВС РФ - Т-54+С60. Зачем Армата при такой мощи! Эта штука даже круче БМПТ )))

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

An MT-LB with a 2B9. This is a very simple adaptation and it would have been relatively easy for Russia to order something like this but factory quality with a turret pre-war. Instead we have what we have.

МТЛБ + Василек = Мотылек (с)

Название ранее предложено koba_roba, мне понравилось

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Another look at Ukraine's MT-LB/MT-12 combination. Note they removed the roof and used the crew compartment space to set up a proper gun platform.

МТЛБ "Рапироносец" сзади

В продолжении темы. Видно что там как в боевом отделении.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Another Ukrainain MT-LB based anti-tank gun, but this time an antiquated D-44 (85mm WWII-era).

Полку противотанковых "Мотолыг" ВСУ прибыло

Теперь и с 85 мм Д-44 и с экранами. Вестник Мордовии

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian MT-LBu with rocket pods. It's unclear how they're aiming and the accuracy is likely to be poor. Overall while these adaptations are spreading, this is rather desperate. And yes both sides have been using this approach.

Ракетная "Мотолыга" У

ВСУ. С блоками Б-8

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A rare Romanian MLRS in Ukraine. Note Ukraine has received Romanian BTR-60 variants and howitzers so this is a logical follow-up. These deliveries are also not widely advertised.

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vk.com

A pair of BTR-50s heading to front, one with a ZU-23-2. Note we haven't seen them on the front at all.

БТР-50 снова в строю

Курганцы БТР-50 едут в зону боевых действий. Один с ЗУ-23-2

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

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vk.com

Вперед, в 1950ые! Ждем 1940ые...

С обоих сторон пошла техника середины прошлого века, и вот еще пример. Ирак кстати любил на 50ки ставить рогатки, до последнего времени, что у нас в тут неоднократно отображено. А вот чей он - не знаю. По тягачу не определил. Телеграм - канал Милитарист

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Moscow calling

Советский гусеничный бронетранспортёр БТР-50, созданный в 1952 г. на базе плавающего танка ПТ-76, оснащенный зенитной установкой ЗУ-23-2, куда-то едет на танковозе.

t.me

A scare Russian T-54 at the front, with a double roof cage. No ERA or other improvements, presumably due to its intended use.

А вот и новинки

Т-54 на фронте, конечно же уже с мангалом, что вы, никто их не подпустит к переднему краю, они будут использоваться как САУ из далека ))) Обратите внимание противотандемный мангал в два слоя. В общем Армата не пришла, Т-62 Т-55 на долго Роль всевозможных…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Да да, это Т-55 с козырьком. Для тех, кто все еще не верит, что они на фронте.

t.me

A look at Russian T-62 upgrades. Despite being a fairly large program there is little to no standardization other then the thermal sights being added. And of course all the ERA is K-1, which is not surprising in principle given that even newer T-80BVs are often going into battle without upgrades. There is probably a bottleneck in ERA production somewhere.

Т-62-2023

Капитальный ремонт и модернизация танков Т-62М/МВ (обр. 2022 года) на 103 бронетанковом ремонтном заводе. Модернизация осуществляется путём установки современной радиостанции, динамической защиты и тепловизионного прицела 1ПН96МТ-02. В процессе ремонта и модернизации в ход идут танки разных годов…

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

The pattern of Russia pulling weapons off of decomissioned ships and putting them on MT-LBs is continuing. Here's an MT-LB with a naval twin-DShK mount.

Ещё один военно-морской шуш.

МТ-ЛБв с 12.7мм 2-УК-Т(2 ДШК), вероятно со старых ТК пр.123.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Another MT-LB with naval weapons mount, this one more appropriate to land use.

А вот вам на ночь еще "ВМФ + БТТ"

Еще одна импровизированная зенитная самоходная установка в виде корабельной 14,5-мм пулеметной установки 2М-7 на шасси МТ-ЛБ Телеграм - канал Милитарист PS: Предлагаю повысить калибр! Где там у нас стоит КР "Михаил кутузов"? Что его башни простаивают?

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A pair of MT-LBs with a navalized Grad variant MLRS ripped from a small landing ship and put on them.

МТЛБ: теперь как "военно-морское РСЗО"

Фотография новых российских военно-морских поделок на шасси МТ-ЛБ - на этот раз с установкой корабельных 22-зарядных 140-мм реактивных пусковых установок МС-227 комплекса А-22 Огонь - видимо, сканнибаленных с малых десантных кораблей на воздушной подушке типа…

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Moscow calling

Очередные российские шушпанцеры на базе МТ-ЛБ - с 140-мм корабельной РСЗО А-22 "Огонь" и со спаркой ДШК в открытой башне (зато с дополнительным "бронированием" бортов и крыши). P. S. Следы фотошопа на первом фото - не из-за того, что фото фейковое, а вследствие замазываня одной блядской вотерки.

t.me

Russian repair units installing armor on Kamaz trucks, this time not the improvised kind. In principle this is a good move, but I can't help but wonder how common this is if at all.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian soldiers, LNR area, training with laser imitators, a rare piece of kit in the Russian arsenal.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian troops with a WWII-era field phone, though in a post-war variant. While typically inferior to radio, in an EW-heavy environment, and in relatively static positions, these can have their role, especially if you can bury the cables fairly deep. These would in principle work well for the massive Russian defense line in Zaporozhye.

Moscow calling

Послевоенная модификация ТАИ-43-Р обр. 1943 г., в стильном карболитовом корпусе, произведенном на трофейном оборудовании, на котором немцы раньше клепали свои FF-33, и с возможностью дистанционного управления радиостанцией. Интересно, что штатный химический источник тока ТАИ-43 имел напряжение...

t.me

ЖИВОВ Z

Армейская связь. Не старьё, а винтаж. Русская армия - самая винтажная армия в мире! ЖИВОВZ

t.me

Allegedly a Russian S-400 command post got hit, but the circumstances are unclear.

Moscow calling

Сообщают о поражении российского пункта боевого управления 55K6E комплекса С-400 "Триумф" при помощи HIMARS в Херсонской области.

t.me

A train full of decrepit T-80 variants, category 4 storage no doubt, heading to a repair plant. While their condition is poor, they are undoubtedly repairable and can probably even be converted into relatively modern T-80BVMs.

Moscow calling

Эшелон Т-80БВ с хранения, в состоянии "гниющий 20 лет во дворе "жигуль" едет, вероятно, на танкоремонтный завод.

t.me

Russian tanks in Ukraine have finally gotten standardized roof cages. Their effectiveness remains questionable, but reportedly these are removable. Note the 2-3rd links have a T-80BVM at the OTM factory with Nakidka which up until now have been reserved for T-90Ms and even then not all. There were reports recently that Russia will use Nakidka on all types of armored vehicles moving forward. How practical this is remains unclear. But even if they can only provide them to upgraded MBT variants, this should still help somewhat.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Модуль динамической защиты «крыша»

Шойгу смотрит на модернизированный Т-80БВ. Теперь козырек с ДЗ там штатно. Также машины оснащают накидкой, чего раньше не было. Из того что можно понять из разговора в Омске планируют модернизировать 153 Т-80БВ из них 15 готовы к отгрузке. Далее министр обороны смотрит всякое старье,…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

Ukrainian forces show off a OTO Melara Mod 56 105mm Italian howitzer. No doubt many other uncommon weapon types will see action in this war.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Ukrainian hybrid, a captured T-62 with a BMP-2 turret.

Т/БМП - 62/2: финальный аккорд

Ну вот, машинку покрасили и передали в войска. Последим за ее судьбой.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

128ая горно-штурмовая бригада ВСУ хвастается пока ещё целым "БМПВ" (это они сами его так назвали если что) на базе Т-62, . @vorposte

t.me

A Russian BTR-80 with a roof cage and two rocket pods. Same as above, not a good choice.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

БТР-80: финальный босс.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

 

[KipPotapych]

Russian troops with a WWII-era field phone, though in a post-war variant. While typically inferior to radio, in an EW-heavy environment, and in relatively static positions, these can have their role, especially if you can bury the cables fairly deep. These would in principle work well for the massive Russian defense line in Zaporozhye.

Moscow calling

Послевоенная модификация ТАИ-43-Р обр. 1943 г., в стильном карболитовом корпусе, произведенном на трофейном оборудовании, на котором немцы раньше клепали свои FF-33, и с возможностью дистанционного управления радиостанцией. Интересно, что штатный химический источник тока ТАИ-43 имел напряжение...

t.me

ЖИВОВ Z

Армейская связь. Не старьё, а винтаж. Русская армия - самая винтажная армия в мире! ЖИВОВZ

t.me

I read a brief discussion about it somewhere, possibly RUSI, but I cannot recall. The main point, like you say, was that the Russians put it to use to their advantage and the Ukrainians can no longer intercept or interfere with their comms where these are “extensively” used. I specifically remember they used the word “extensively”, but I put it in quotes because how extensive is it, really? Who knows. I saw a few (I’d say rare) pics/videos in the past few months with this type of communication devices up front or somewhere in the background.


A few tidbits I ran into today:

Another DYI Grad from Popular Mechanics:

Fighterbomber

Блок авиационных НАР на мотолыге в работе. Кстати, так блоки используют во всем мире. Дошёл и до нас ход.

t.me

A look at the Antonovskiy bridge after the Iskander strike. The “narrator” says something along the lines of “down there on the left, there is an entrance to the Ukrainian bunker (under the rubble)”, but I can’t quite get exactly what he saying and while I may see something, can’t say for sure that is what I am seeing. Maybe Feanor can help with the translation:

Kotsnews

И да, мы обрушили пролет моста, который устоял после 142 попаданий Хаймарса. То есть, все-таки, можем. Теперь объяснять, почему мы не бьем по мостам, через которые с Запада идут поставки вооружений, будет еще сложнее. @sashakots

t.me

Feel like there was something else I thought was interesting, but drawing a blank at the moment.


Another thing was that the New York Times reported that the US has made the decision to supply the UA with cluster munitions:

Here’s What Cluster Munitions Do and Why They Are So Controversial (Published 2023)

Here’s a guide to why this type of weapon is controversial and widely banned — and why Kyiv wants it.

www.nytimes.com

Behind the paywall, so here is the main part:

The United States is expected to announce that it will provide Ukraine with cluster munitions, a senior Biden administration official said. Kyiv has been pushing for the controversial and widely banned type of weapon but Washington has resisted because of its potential to cause indiscriminate harm to civilians.

Ukraine has said the weapons would help in its counteroffensive against Russian troops by allowing its forces to effectively target entrenched Russian positions and to overcome its disadvantage in manpower and artillery.

After months of demurring, citing concerns about the weapons’ use and saying they were not necessary, U.S. officials have recently signaled a shift. Laura Cooper, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, told U.S. lawmakers late last month that the Pentagon had determined that cluster munitions would be useful for Ukraine, “especially against dug-in Russian positions on the battlefield.”

The expected U.S. decision was first reported by National Public Radio and confirmed on Wednesday night by the administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to disclose internal policy discussions.[…]

Most members of NATO, the Western military alliance that has been staunch in its support for Ukraine, have signed on to the international ban. Ms. Cooper, the deputy assistant secretary of defense, said “concerns about allied unity” were one of the reasons holding the United States back from providing the weapons to Ukraine. The Convention on Cluster Munitions also limits the ability of nations that have signed on to cooperate militarily with countries that employ them.[…]

In February, Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for restoration, said speedy provision of arms from allies would be critical to Kyiv’s advance in the counteroffensive against Russia, and that it should be Ukraine’s choice to deploy the weapons on its soil.

“It’s our territory. I understand how it’s complicated with all these conventions, but we can use to resist them on our territory,” he said in a town hall at the Munich Security Conference. “Our allies, the U.S., many other countries, they have millions of rounds of such type. Again, we will wait, wait, wait, and suddenly one day, probably, we will receive such type of munitions.”

I saw in the Russian media outlet later that the Pentagon denied that the decision had already been made, but if they were to provide such weapons, they would be the newer and more reliable type or something like that. They were providing RIA Novosti as a source, so I am not posting that. Later in the day there were a few articles at Washington Post, Politico, as well as some others stating that the decision had, in fact, been made and the cluster munitions will be part of the next package to be yet announced. In my opinion, if that happens, it would be extremely shameful.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Feanor The use of wired field telephones does make sense because remote stations can't listen in on them and they don't emit RF radiation so reduces the probability of a HQ being detected by EW / ELINT measures.

Russian T-55s on a train in Voronezh.

WarTranslated | Archiving the War in Ukraine

A train transferring old Russian tanks was noticed in Voronezh - judging by the comments of the locals, even they realise what sort of old stuff Russia has to resort to.

t.me

Many of us, myself included, have declaimed the Russian deployment of the T54 / T55 to the Ukrainian battlefront. I watched a video from the UK Tank Museum and it has given me pause to think. It mightn't have all the modern bells and whistles, but it's still capable. A tank's a tank and even the T54 / T55 can cause the average grunt nightmares.

The latest video report from the Ukrainian side. It claims that in fact the Russians didn't dislodge the Ukrainians from their bridgehead on the eastern side of the river at Kherson.

Deep State Telegram post on the destruction of Russian MLRS ammo the other day.

✙DeepState✙

Канал donetchanyn опублікував кадри вчорашніх святкових заходів на честь дня незалежності США в Макіївці deepstatemap.live/#14/48.071/37.903 МапаБлогНаписати нам ЗСУHelpМагазинДонат

t.me

Russian POWs arriving back home in Russia.

Colonelcassad

Борт с российскими военными, которых вытащили из плена, прибыл на аэродром Чкаловский в Москве.

t.me

Russian battlefield claims.

Rybar in English

❗️ Highlig hts of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on July 6 ▪️Russian troops launched another massive strike on military facilities on the territory of Ukraine. Critical infrastructure in Lviv, as well as AFU military equipment depots and bases were hit. ▪️ In the Lyman area, the...

t.me

Video of a UKR Leopard 2A6 heading towards Zaporizhia.

BI - пидор

You can view and join @britishintelligence right away.

t.me

MLRS 2B26 "Grad" based on Kamaz being destroyed in Zaporizhia region.

BI - пидор

You can view and join @britishintelligence right away.

t.me

Mick Ryan's take on the UKR offensive.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676753981333467136

OSINT tech tweet on UKR artillery strikes on Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676786427810463746

Gen Ben Hodges reason for why he believes that UKR will win this war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676966140294344710

Destroyed UKR vehicles somewhere in the Zaporizhia region.

https://twitter.com/WarUpdater/status/1677190268544483331

OSINT tech details of latest RUS equipment losses.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1677083277167931394

 

[Ananda]

Ukraine war: Front-line troops discuss counter-offensive

Will Russia's defences shatter or hold firm? The BBC gets the view from Ukrainian soldiers on the front line.

www.bbc.com

This article quite different for BBC on covering Ukraine War. However seems few articles like this come out in Western Mainstream Media. Realisation that this is going to be tossed up results. Not talk of Russia is weak and incompetence and Ukrainian with Western training and equipment will roll them back quickly and soon.

This is War of attrition since May Last Year. Some Pro Russian Western talkpod like Alexander Mercouris and his buddies in Duran, or Trump supporters Colonel McGregor and his buddies increasingly talk on Ukrainian bogged down, and Russian taking back some their previous holds, seems directed to Pro Ukrainian pundits that talk now it is part of Ukrainian plan to chew Russian defences.

What ever they talk, the truth is somewhere in middle. This despite all the fog of war circulating by both sides, it is increasingly shown this is going to be active standstill lines. The line still can break, but now the break increasingly can happen on both sides also. Personally I still see neither side have enough momentum to break lines significantly.

It is notable that the gloomier perspectives regarding Ukraine's counter-offensive tend to come from soldiers closest to the frontlines and most heavily involved in combat operations.

Pro Russian telegram with all their biases at least from were more realistic then Pro Ukrainian Reddit.They seeing this is going to be bloody and protracted war, while Pro Ukrainian very sure routs like in second half last year will happen again. History will see whether last year was rout or strategic redeployment.

While those in behind the line in West defense establishment especially in London and Washington keep pumping the spirit saying Russian already low in armament, their missile is spent, and Ukrainian Western supplies will crush them soon. The "soon" move from days, weeks and now months.

 

[Feanor]

@Feanor The use of wired field telephones does make sense because remote stations can't listen in on them and they don't emit RF radiation so reduces the probability of a HQ being detected by EW / ELINT measures.

But also drastically reduces the mobility of said HQ if it needs to relocate. It's a trade off that makes sense with the current near-static front lines.

Russian T-55s on a train in Voronezh.

WarTranslated | Archiving the War in Ukraine

A train transferring old Russian tanks was noticed in Voronezh - judging by the comments of the locals, even they realise what sort of old stuff Russia has to resort to.

t.me

Many of us, myself included, have declaimed the Russian deployment of the T54 / T55 to the Ukrainian battlefront. I watched a video from the UK Tank Museum and it has given me pause to think. It mightn't have all the modern bells and whistles, but it's still capable. A tank's a tank and even the T54 / T55 can cause the average grunt nightmares.

With BMP-3s/BMD-4Ms using 100mm as indirect fire, it makes sense to use the T-54/55s in a similar manner. Generally you won't care who fired the 100mm round if it hits you. This is still much less effective then say 152mm and we definitely see Russia facing a scarcity of howitzers. Again I think the culprit is barrel wear and a lack of repair facilities (recent Shoygu visit to Omsk revealed a field full of self-propelled and relatively modern 2S4s, and 2S5s sitting and awaiting refurbishments even as WWII-era D-1s are on the front, and MBTs are being used for indirect fires). Note what else is in that field; buckets of BTR-70s. There's a vehicle we haven't seen Russia use basically at all. And many thousands are in storage. Again I suspect the bottleneck is the repair plants to get this stuff up and running.

Сибирские "консервы": Украине и НАТО на заметку

gurkhan.blogspot.com

 

[Pukovnik7]

Many of us, myself included, have declaimed the Russian deployment of the T54 / T55 to the Ukrainian battlefront. I watched a video from the UK Tank Museum and it has given me pause to think. It mightn't have all the modern bells and whistles, but it's still capable. A tank's a tank and even the T54 / T55 can cause the average grunt nightmares.

That's actually the point Chieftain made in one of his videos: most of the tank combat will not be hot tank-on-tank action, and so all you really need is good thermals and a gun to lob HE to support infantry. Basically, put good thermals on a tank and even T-34 can be useful in a modern war. And I do agree: Croatian Army rather successfuly used old T-34/85, M-18 Hellcat and M-36 Jackson during the Homeland War. Some T-34s remained in service as late as 2002.

This is the video:

 

[T.C.P]

Gen Ben Hodges reason for why he believes that UKR will win this war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676966140294344710

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677312212384337924

Oryx disputes the article. The article does not take into consideration a lot offactors, like tanks being brought out of storage etc.

But on the artillery count list, I wonder how will Russia change their doctrine to address that. Ukraine has been releasing almost 10-20 russian arty destructions a day now for quite some time, that is not sustainable.

 

[Feanor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677312212384337924

Oryx disputes the article. The article does not take into consideration a lot offactors, like tanks being brought out of storage etc.

But on the artillery count list, I wonder how will Russia change their doctrine to address that. Ukraine has been releasing almost 10-20 russian arty destructions a day now for quite some time, that is not sustainable.

They literally took pre-war active inventory, subtracted confirmed losses, and used that total? That article is literally garbage. It ignores undocumented losses, tanks pulled from storage, and new production.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Many of us, myself included, have declaimed the Russian deployment of the T54 / T55 to the Ukrainian battlefront. I watched a video from the UK Tank Museum and it has given me pause to think. It mightn't have all the modern bells and whistles, but it's still capable. A tank's a tank and even the T54 / T55 can cause the average grunt nightmares.

One of the many things I appreciate about you is the way you often reconsider as more information becomes available. I can't remember now whether it was you or @OPSSG who wisely wrote about how valuable experience is, and the ability to view from different angles/levels. The ability to rethink things is a mark of a true professional, too. Much appreciation for our tireless and patient @Feanor keeping us informed and his rxcellent analysis, too.

That's actually the point Chieftain made in one of his videos: most of the tank combat will not be hot tank-on-tank action, and so all you really need is good thermals and a gun to lob HE to support infantry. Basically, put good thermals on a tank and even T-34 can be useful in a modern war. And I do agree: Croatian Army rather successfuly used old T-34/85, M-18 Hellcat and M-36 Jackson during the Homeland War. Some T-34s remained in service as late as 2002.

True enough, but the VRSK only had a few clattering clanking hilariously pathetic old tanks. They had really cool graffiti, though. I must say Oluja was one of the most efficient ethnic cleansings ever, though, so there's that.

Edited to add:

I saw in the Russian media outlet later that the Pentagon denied that the decision had already been made, but if they were to provide such weapons, they would be the newer and more reliable type or something like that. They were providing RIA Novosti as a source, so I am not posting that. Later in the day there were a few articles at Washington Post, Politico, as well as some others stating that the decision had, in fact, been made and the cluster munitions will be part of the next package to be yet announced. In my opinion, if that happens, it would be extremely shameful.

Oops. This part of my post somehow got cut off. US/NATO has been criticized for use of cluster bombs during 1999 bombing of Serbia:

Scale of cluster bomb problem in Serbia revealed for first time - Serbia

News and Press Release in English on Serbia about Protection and Human Rights; published on 10 Mar 2009 by NPA

reliefweb.int

Especially the Niš incident, when a hospital and market were hit, killing 15 civilians:

Nato cluster bombs 'kill 15' in hospital and crowded market

Nato bombers yesterday dropped cluster bombs on a crowded outdoor market and a hospital in the southern Serbian city of Nis, killing at least 15 people and injuring many more, according to Yugoslav officials, independent media, and local residents.

www.theguardian.com

So I can see where we'd be leery about giving these to Ukraine. My uneducated guess is we well might, though.

 

[John Fedup]

One of the many things I appreciate about you is the way you often reconsider as more information becomes available. I can't remember now whether it was you or @OPSSG who wisely wrote about how valuable experience is, and the ability to view from different angles/levels. The ability to rethink things is a mark of a true professional, too. Much appreciation for our tireless and patient @Feanor keeping us informed and his rxcellent analysis, too.



True enough, but the VRSK only had a few clattering clanking hilariously pathetic old tanks. They had really cool graffiti, though. I must say Oluja was one of the most efficient ethnic cleansings ever, though, so there's that.

Edited to add:



Oops. This part of my post somehow got cut off. US/NATO has been criticized for use of cluster bombs during 1999 bombing of Serbia:

Scale of cluster bomb problem in Serbia revealed for first time - Serbia

News and Press Release in English on Serbia about Protection and Human Rights; published on 10 Mar 2009 by NPA

reliefweb.int

Especially the Niš incident, when a hospital and market were hit, killing 15 civilians:

Nato cluster bombs 'kill 15' in hospital and crowded market

Nato bombers yesterday dropped cluster bombs on a crowded outdoor market and a hospital in the southern Serbian city of Nis, killing at least 15 people and injuring many more, according to Yugoslav officials, independent media, and local residents.

www.theguardian.com

So I can see where we'd be leery about giving these to Ukraine. My uneducated guess is we well might, though.

Think of the backlash in the US political sphere if these cluster munitions are denied and the situation in Ukraine deteriorates in Russia’s favour. Serious consequences I would assume. I’m surprised the massive Russian mining of Ukrainian territory doesn’t seem seem to draw the same concerns. IMHO load Ukraine up!

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Think of the backlash in the US political sphere if these cluster munitions are denied and the situation in Ukraine deteriorates in Russia’s favour. Serious consequences I would assume. I’m surprised the massive Russian mining of Ukrainian territory doesn’t seem seem to draw the same concerns. IMHO load Ukraine up!

Sorry, wasn't very clear. I was thinking of our European NATO allies. They might be a tad squeamish about cluster munitions. It's possible the Biden administration is being a bit coy about whether to provide them in order to feel them out. If it puts some off, they'll likely wait until after Vilnius to send them.

There might well be backlash in Congress, true, but I doubt regular American citizens would care much one way or the other. Cluster munitions just don't have the same pizzazz as F-16s and Abrams.

 

[John Fedup]

Sorry, wasn't very clear. I was thinking of our European NATO allies. They might be a tad squeamish about cluster munitions. It's possible the Biden administration is being a bit coy about whether to provide them in order to feel them out. If it puts some off, they'll likely wait until after Vilnius to send them.

There might well be backlash in Congress, true, but I doubt regular American citizens would care much one way or the other. Cluster munitions just don't have the same pizzazz as F-16s and Abrams.

I agree, cluster munitions don’t have much pizzazz with American citizens until pollies equate failure to supply them with a Ukrainian defeat. As for Euro concerns about suppling them, even Euro pollies could face consequences if things go badly for Ukraine. Just my 2 cents though.

 

[IHFP]

Concept of prioritization holds allot of water in tense situations. Sitting in a chair thousands of kilometres from the arena its easy for me to see how cluster munitions would be of benefit to the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is a large country, and cluster munitions can have a devastating effect on the outcome of the conflict.

As for Euro concerns about suppling them, even Euro pollies could face consequences if things go badly for Ukraine. Just my 2 cents though.

Had a really interesting point about how the powers that be would have trouble justifying not providing cluster bombs, in the event that the conflict isn’t successful. This philosophical argument of the Catch-22 is one that I find to be interesting.

Regardless of who wins Putin or Zelenski its hard to forget that Ukraine has a rich agricultural industry that requires working of the earth and whatever happens to be buried in it (explosives). This means there will be a higher chance of explosives being found if cluster bombs are used in contrast to some other munitions. This is a mute point because it would appear that the Putinist militants are already using cluster bombs ( Anatomy of an attack: Is Russia using cluster bombs in Ukraine? ). And boy are they terrible! It would appear that in contrast to the US cluster bombs (~2.5% inefficacy), Russian cluster bombs don’t explode about 35% of time ( What are cluster munitions? Biden defends decision to send controversial weapons to Ukraine ). This matters if the US powers that be want to look as pretty after the conflict. Chernobyl didn’t teach us to not poop where we eat, how about leaving nuggets of destruction in the wheat fields.

Is it better or worse politically to try to end the war faster by using effective US cluster bombs, but contribute to the post war suffering?

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

I agree, cluster munitions don’t have much pizzazz with American citizens until pollies equate failure to supply them with a Ukrainian defeat. As for Euro concerns about suppling them, even Euro pollies could face consequences if things go badly for Ukraine. Just my 2 cents though.

Waiting until after Vilnius would solve the problem. The Ukrainians get their cluster munitions, and nobody can blame any Europeans for not objecting at Vilnius.

Ref the mines. I personally hate mines partly because I lost two colleagues to mines and a friend (very fine Canadian officer) got his legs blown off by one. Wonderful wife and two adorable tiny tots at home. And partly because of all the people I knew in Cambodia, including kids, who lost limbs to mines. I do understand their military use and why they are used, but appreciate it when you guys give warnings about videos that show soldiers getting maimed and killed by mines. Dead bodies don't upset me that much, as I've seen more than my share of those, but I can't watch those videos of mines.

Anyway, probably nobody is fussing about the Russians using them because the Ukrainians use them, too, and have since 2014. And both sides use those awful butterfly mines (the ones little kids find long after the fighting is over, and thinking they are toys, they pick them up and ...)


EDITED to add:

Concept of prioritization holds allot of water in tense situations. Sitting in a chair thousands of kilometres from the arena its easy for me to see how cluster munitions would be of benefit to the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is a large country, and cluster munitions can have a devastating effect on the outcome of the conflict.

Had a really interesting point about how the powers that be would have trouble justifying not providing cluster bombs, in the event that the conflict isn’t successful. This philosophical argument of the Catch-22 is one that I find to be interesting.

Regardless of who wins Putin or Zelenski its hard to forget that Ukraine has a rich agricultural industry that requires working of the earth and whatever happens to be buried in it (explosives). This means there will be a higher chance of explosives being found if cluster bombs are used in contrast to some other munitions. This is a mute point because it would appear that the Putinist militants are already using cluster bombs ( Anatomy of an attack: Is Russia using cluster bombs in Ukraine? ). And boy are they terrible! It would appear that in contrast to the US cluster bombs (~2.5% inefficacy), Russian cluster bombs don’t explode about 35% of time ( What are cluster munitions? Biden defends decision to send controversial weapons to Ukraine ). This matters if the US powers that be want to look as pretty after the conflict. Chernobyl didn’t teach us to not poop where we eat, how about leaving nuggets of destruction in the wheat fields.

Is it better or worse politically to try to end the war faster by using effective US cluster bombs, but contribute to the post war suffering?

Well, if the Ukrainians asked for the cluster munitions, and they use them on their own soil, then what happens to their own soil is on them.

I'm not so sure they'll have "a devastaring effect on the outcome of the conflict" any more than the other stuff NATO has provided. But I defer to the military experts here. (I am not one.)

FINAL EDIT:

NYT, WaPo and the "Big Three" networks here (ABC, CBS and NBC) all reporting Biden decided to include cluster munitions in the next aid package, and Sullivan confirmed it. Some report Ukraine has already been using Turkish cluster munitions. Also reports France, Germany and the UK were against it, but don't seem to be making a big deal out of it. So that answers the question, I suppose.

 

[Bob53]

Is anyone else of the view that US strategy is quite different from Ukraines? I’m forming the view that the US could have gone huge on support to Ukraine 20 months ago with a massive training and equipment support that might have ended…or at least progressed this a bit sooner before Russia built up its defences to the extent that it has. But I think the US is letting Russia get done slowly..,bleeding out over a long period of time that will have a much longer lasting impact on Russias threat capabilities. The downside of this is that Russia has had time to build more minefields etc that will prolong any outcome… but possible that’s what the US wants?