The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[John Fedup]

Is anyone else of the view that US strategy is quite different from Ukraines? I’m forming the view that the US could have gone huge on support to Ukraine 20 months ago with a massive training and equipment support that might have ended…or at least progressed this a bit sooner before Russia built up its defences to the extent that it has. But I think the US is letting Russia get done slowly..,bleeding out over a long period of time that will have a much longer lasting impact on Russias threat capabilities. The downside of this is that Russia has had time to build more minefields etc that will prolong any outcome… but possible that’s what the US wants?

I think the cautious gradual US support was based on not knowing exactly how Putin would have responded. I doubt the US sees any advantage in dragging this war out for long term damage to Russia as it would likely turn Russia into a Chinese resource colony, hardly a useful outcome for the West.

 

[Ananda]

I doubt the US sees any advantage in dragging this war out for long term damage to Russia as it would likely turn Russia into a Chinese resource colony, hardly a useful outcome for the West.

Yes, the longer this war happen, the more Russian going to restructure their MIC, and without acess to Western import, will get some from Chinese ones (especially electronics materials). The longer this war, the more costs both sides taken, but more time for China to consolidate their defense inventories.

While US/West and Russian MIC produce materials for this War, China will just increasing their Inventories at the expense of US and West readiness. China since last year already the big winner on this war.

 

[koxinga]

Yes, the longer this war happen, the more Russian going to restructure their MIC, and without acess to Western import, will get some from Chinese ones (especially electronics materials). The longer this war, the more costs both sides taken, but more time for China to consolidate their defense inventories.

While US/West and Russian MIC produce materials for this War, China will just increasing their Inventories at the expense of US and West readiness. China since last year already the big winner on this war.

Russian MIC seems to have adapted to the war and production of new weapons/missiles/tanks after Feb 2022 is on-going but the extent of support, direct or indirect via non-western supply chains (china as a source or as a conduit) is unknown.

US/European support does not seem to be at the level that would enable Ukraine to achieve a breakthrough at the battlefield that changes the strategic situation; I don't blame the lack of political will but the sheer size of the theatre/front. It would require quantities of hardware/trained men that doesn't happen overnight. As long as the Russian MIC and MOD are able to match those quantities, it will be a meat grinder.

The other unintended benefit is the resetting of strategic reserves on both Western and Russian sides. Whatever that were sitting in warehouses/parking lots of European militaries (Cold War, immediate post Cold War drawdowns) has been exhausted and we are in a reset now.

 

[Ananda]

Well whatever the unintended build up on both sides MIC due to this war. The point is, US/West and Russian MIC has to work out on replacing what's lost in this war. Thus involve on attrition production effort. While Chinese ones are not, and they can build up to whatever they're planning for.

That's not in the benefit of US/West long term interest. Unless they are going to stay out Asia Pacific theater. If not, then they will have problem to catch up with China build up, let alone production run to equip Ukrainian.

 

[rsemmes]

I think the cautious gradual US support was based on not knowing exactly how Putin would have responded. I doubt the US sees any advantage in dragging this war out for long term damage to Russia as it would likely turn Russia into a Chinese resource colony, hardly a useful outcome for the West.

Maybe US was thinking that Ukraine was going to fold. (If?) Russia is the enemy, keeping your enemy busy is always good (supporting Vietnam/the Taliban). I don't think any (western, weapons company) CEO is unhappy with this war; the longer the better, I would say. We, getting rid of old stuff and producing new weapons may not be in China's best interests; keeping us busy, yes (up to a point, you never know how a war is going to end). Even if we are just trying to keep up the attrition level, we are gearing up our armament industry; again, not the best option for China. Anything China is providing Russia with, it is not keeping for itself; again, not that good.
"Likely"?
China is building up, it has a lot of catch up to do, this war is irrelevant. US is not sending that many weapons to Taiwan (I cannot remember if it was last or this year, but I was reading something about a delivery backlog), that is relevant; to Taiwan, China and US.
I don't think US interests in the Pacific is "the West".

 

[rsemmes]

Now, I am reading that 2.35% against a 30-40% cluster munitions failure rate. The first one from classified tests (by the owner), so we cannot confirm its veracity, I don't even know where the second one is coming from. I do know that western tanks are more comfortable than (I read) Soviet ones, but anyone knows of any independent report about those percentages? Any NGO, maybe?

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

While US/West and Russian MIC produce materials for this War, China will just increasing their Inventories at the expense of US and West readiness. China since last year already the big winner on this war.

The west is supplying Ukraine land based war inventory. With China, I mostly see a naval conflict. To control the Aisan seas and oceans.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

I wouldnt say China is the big winner of the Russo-Ukrainian war... at all.
While they are basically sitting and watching Russia weakening itself, they are also paying the (huge) price of a deep shift of will in westerns governments.
Decoupling, while not being immediate, will hit China extremely hard.
So hard they may need to do something desperate.
Also, Europe literally fell asleep after the end of the Cold war and was basically China's biggest economical partner, buying billions and billions of chinese products for decades.
Thats changing, and very rapidly.

 

[Ananda]

The west is supplying Ukraine land based war inventory. With China, I mostly see a naval conflict. To control the Aisan seas and oceans.

Well let's hope they are not Invading Taiwan. All the tensions in the end are base on that.

Decoupling, while not being immediate, will hit China extremely hard.

I already put this on China thread, and so far there are no sign of decoupling with China. Relocation on some manufacturing facilities is not same with decoupling. Decoupling with China is very different calculations then decoupling with Russia.

Interesting that some in West only think that Russia is the only one that pay the price on decoupling. So far Russia still run more or less as usual, so does EU. However both also pay the increasing price. Imagine that if that with China.

As the winner, I'm sorry with both West and Russia pay the prices, China gain more influence Globally (not just with Russia but more in some part of Global South) in the expense of both sides without having to pay the costs. It is a winner in any book.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Well let's hope they are not Invading Taiwan. All the tensions in the end are base on that.



I already put this on China thread, and so far there are no sign of decoupling with China. Decoupling with China is very different calculations then decoupling with China.

Interesting that many in West only think that Russia is the only one that pay the price on decoupling.

I think the second bold "China" should be "Russia". Probably a type error.

Yes, the longer this war happen, the more Russian going to restructure their MIC, and without acess to Western import, will get some from Chinese ones (especially electronics materials). The longer this war, the more costs both sides taken, but more time for China to consolidate their defense inventories.

While US/West and Russian MIC produce materials for this War, China will just increasing their Inventories at the expense of US and West readiness. China since last year already the big winner on this war.

Besides china, also Iran and the US are the big winners in this war. East-European NATO-members have started a buying contest of american defence equipment, and Russia has become nr.1 defence importer from Iran.

 

[Ananda]

Yes, in this West mostly Eurozone. Seems I need to be more clear on that.

Add: Already corrected the typo, thanks @Sandhi Yudha for the correction.

 

[ngatimozart]

The west is supplying Ukraine land based war inventory. With China, I mostly see a naval conflict. To control the Asian seas and oceans.

If it were so simple, but unfortunately it isn't. No matter how much sea and airpower you have, you still need boots on the ground to win a war. The CCP / PRC know this and they need to definitely secure the first and probably second island chains. Within the second island chain is the world's largest island archipelago and to secure that, you need boots on the ground.

 

[koxinga]

If it were so simple, but unfortunately it isn't. No matter how much sea and airpower you have, you still need boots on the ground to win a war. The CCP / PRC know this and they need to definitely secure the first and probably second island chains. Within the second island chain is the world's largest island archipelago and to secure that, you need boots on the ground.

Within the first island chain, absolutely. For the TW scenario, the fundamental goal of naval/airforces to to secure passage of PLA (e.g boots) to the island. The capitulation of the TW authorities would be achieved only by the PLA (army) taking key cities and destroying ROCA in the process, rather than naval/airforces alone.

Beyond that (e.g second, third island chain), what would be their strategic intentions that would justify boots on the ground? For me, it is not clear. The context and environment between Japan 1941 (Nanshin-ron, Southern expansion) and now is vastly different, and they know the challenges that Japan faced in taking and holding remote islands.

I will stop here because this is has nothing to do with this thread.

 

[seaspear]

Getting back to economic sanctions against Russia this Bloomberg report suggests it has become marked and has required nearly a third of its federal budget to be spent on defence and domestic security , Russia,s monetary reserves are not endless
EU Says Cost of Sanctions Will Hit Russia Harder Over Time - Bloomberg
War and sanctions: Effects on the Russian economy | CEPR
Certainly Russia has stopped any accurate release of effects of sanctions on its economy and is likely to effect W.T.O data reports
Russia is not publishing economic data, hiding the effect of Western sanctions - Daily News (txtreport.com)

 

[Larry_L]

So Prigozhin was thought to be exiled to Belarus. Next there are reports of two private jets leaving for Russia. One goes to St Petersburg, The other goes to Moscow. In the confusion over his whereabouts, reporters ask the Russian MOD about him. In answer they state (“No, we aren’t keeping track of his movements, we have neither the ability, nor the desire to do so,” ) referring to statements by Lukashenko as still having relevance.

‘We have neither the ability, nor the desire,’ says Kremlin spox on whether or not the Kremlin is tracking Prigozhin — Meduza

The Kremlin is not following the movements of Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, says Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

meduza.io

Meanwhile NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg, when asked, says that NATO is watching both Prigozhin, and his units.

NATO tracks movements of Russia’s Wagner mercenaries: Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says Western military alliance is monitoring movements of Russian mercenary force.

www.aljazeera.com

Then today Russia confirms that Prigozhin and Putin, along with Wagner commanders held a meeting at the Kremlin on June 29th. The information is attributed to Dmitry Peskov. It appears that Wagner will be back in the fight.

Russia confirms Wagner-Putin meeting, releases Gerasimov video

Russia appears to be trying to take control of the narrative around the Wagner Group, after last month’s mutiny.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Larry_L]

As early as last October there were unconfirmed rumors that if Russia pulled out of the grain deal, the grain would still move. It is in Russia's interest to appear to be instrumental in allowing the world access to food. As usual Russia is balking at renewing the deal, asserting that the grain corridor is being used by Ukraine for military purposes. Amid the uncertainty, as the deal is a week from expiring, there is another rumor that the grain would continue without Russian consent. If they do not this could get very interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678101901085229058

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

Then today Russia confirms that Prigozhin and Putin, along with Wagner commanders held a meeting at the Kremlin on June 29th. The information is attributed to Dmitry Peskov. It appears that Wagner will be back in the fight.

Putin REALLY needs those soldiers. Looks like Prigozhin still has some leverage left.

 

[Stampede]

Putin REALLY needs those soldiers. Looks like Prigozhin still has some leverage left.

This article on the ABC today re the human cost of the war for Russia.
We may never know the true figures, but this somewhat confirms the previous guesstimates.

Moscow's closest-held secret revealed by new data about Russia's death toll in Ukraine war

Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of data to learn the true human cost of Russia's invasion.

www.abc.net.au

If these sort of figures are true ,then there will be tens of thousands of relatives and friends wanting an end to this mess.
Maybe some added pressure on Putin to get a resolve to this " Special military operation" sooner rather than later.
With Prigozhin and others making noise what will Putin do next?


Regards S

PS - Acknowledge the human price for Ukraine as well.

 

[Ananda]

Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles

As Russian missile attacks against Ukraine persist into 2023, it has become clear that Russia isn’t going to run out of missiles. Sustained support for Ukrainian air defenses for the duration of the war is the only reliable counter to this threat.

www.csis.org

Acknowledgement from one of Western Leading Think Tank that Russian MIC production of missiles and armaments will never slown down despite all the sanctions? Or another justifications for more Air Defense systems from West to Ukraine.

Take a pick, because it can be seen both ways.

 

[Feanor]

This article on the ABC today re the human cost of the war for Russia.
We may never know the true figures, but this somewhat confirms the previous guesstimates.

Moscow's closest-held secret revealed by new data about Russia's death toll in Ukraine war

Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of data to learn the true human cost of Russia's invasion.

www.abc.net.au

If these sort of figures are true ,then there will be tens of thousands of relatives and friends wanting an end to this mess.
Maybe some added pressure on Putin to get a resolve to this " Special military operation" sooner rather than later.
With Prigozhin and others making noise what will Putin do next?


Regards S

PS - Acknowledge the human price for Ukraine as well.

That's a pretty realistic number, and if anything on the low end of what I would have guessed. Granted I only have my educated guess, they at least have some napkin math to support it. Either way it's a better number then what one would think.