The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update. Jan 17th-18th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian loitering munition takes out Ukrainian allegedly a RPMK-1 (1B44) (can't make out what the vehicle is) near Kherson.

Colonelcassad

БПЛА-камикадзе "Ланцет" уничтожает мобильную станцию РЭБ противника на Херсонском направлении. Видео: https://t.me/russian_airborne

t.me

Moscow calling

Уважаемые подписчики, поздравляю - нас, скорее всего, читает МО РФ! На этом видео российский барражирующий боеприпас, запущенный бойцами ВДВ, поражает украинский комплекс РЭБ / РТР. Внимательные подписчики заметили, чего же нет на этом видео? Правильно - самого прилёта, заснятого БПЛА "на...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

It is revealed that the Serbian volunteers recently discussed are joining the Russian Sudoplatov volunteer btln in Zaporozhye.

Colonelcassad

Батальон имени Судоплатова в Запорожской области пополнился добровольцами из Сербии. Военкор "Известий" Роман Польшаков пообщался с сербскими бойцами, которые приехали поддержать россиян. Они рассказали о том, почему решились покинуть дом и отправиться в Россию. Боец с позывным "Дунай" приехал...

t.me

The North.

A Ukrainian Super Puma helicopter crashed in Brovary near a kindergarten. Note the purchase of the type by Ukraine's MVD and GSChS was always somewhat questionable. Reportedly 18 people are dead and 29 wounded including MVD leadership and children from the kindergarten. Some witnesses claim the helo was already burning while in the air.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Moscow calling

В Броварах Киевской области рядом с детским садом и жилым домом упал вертолёт "Супер Пума" МВД Украины. Сообщают о значительном пожаре. Экипаж, вероятно, погиб.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Один из свидетелей падения вертолета заявляет, что вертолет горел еще в воздухе, что может указывать на то, что машина была поражена из ПЗРК или какого-то другого средства огневого поражения.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео с заявлением свидетельницы падения, которая говорит, что вертолет горел еще в воздухе и целенаправленно направлялся к детскому садику. На фото - обломки упавшего вертолета.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Всего в Броварах погибло 18 человек - 9 человек находившихся в вертолете + 9 человек в детском саду (из них 3 детей). 29 человек получили ранения (из них 15 детей) По свидетельству очевидцев, вертолет перед падением наворачивал круги над Броварами и вел себя так, как будто получил какие-то...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Первое видео с крушением вертолёта с высшим руководством МВД Украины в Броварах. https://t.me/anna_news/45426

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Киевской области разбился вертолет МЧС Украины. Кадры последствий пожара в Броварах. Видно, как в здании полностью выбило окна. Всего, по данным главы Нацполиции погибли 18человек, среди которых — двое детей и девять руководителей местного МВД, которые были в вертолете. По данным Национальной...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Первые кадры с места пожара после падения украинского вертолёта в Броварах в Киевской области.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео снятое вскоре после падение вертолета с руководством МВД Украины в Броварах + видео из детского сада, на который упал вертолет.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Artillery impacts during an interview with a Wagner fighter in Soledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some shots of Soledar after the fighting.

Colonelcassad

Соледар, несколько дней после штурма. Взятие Соледара даёт широкие возможности по развитию наступления наших сил

t.me

Allegedly the surviving personnel of a btln of the 116th Territorial Defense bde near Soledar. They're complaining that they're being used as cannon fodder, don't have the proper training or support, and their command is giving them criminal orders.

Colonelcassad

Уцелевший личный состав одного из батальонов 116-й бригады фольксштурма действовавшей на линии фронта Артемовск-Соледар жалуются Залужному и Зеленскому, что их командир отдает преступные приказы, а для выполнения боевых задач у них нет ни необходимой подготовки, ни необходимого...

t.me

Ukrainian soldiers as their company is being sent to Artemovsk/Bakhmut complain that their commander got "sick" as soon as the deployment came up, and their unit is missing all their company and platoon commanders, and are 60% short on personnel. They're also missing medics. It's unclear if this is due to casualties in combat or if the unit is just incomplete.

Colonelcassad

Узнав об отправке в Артемовск, командир роты ушел на больничный. Очередные жалобщики сообщают, что в роте, которую хотят отправить в Артемовск, отсутствует командир роты, командиры взводов, медики и 60% личного состава.

t.me

Ukrainian Mi-8 lobbing rockets, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian T-72 destroyed in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note it was penetrated right in the front glacis. In general the T-72A and T-72M variants are inadequately protected.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Т-72 ВСУ уничтоженный в ходе городских боев в Артемовске. Есть пробитие.

t.me

Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Разрушения в Артемовске. Бои постепенно смещаются в городскую черту, ввиду чего масштабы разрушений увеличиваются.

t.me

Sparta btln quadcopter munition drops, north of Pervomayskoe.

Colonelcassad

Постепенно занимаем позиции к северу от Первомайского. Погода не всегда лётная, показываем то, что удалось снять. На видео корректируем огонь артиллерии по окопам противника и разбиваем их сбросами с коптера. @zhogaartem

t.me

Combat footage of the DNR 5th Motor-Rifles, outskirts of Donetsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Fairly uncommon Russian 2B26 Grads near Mar'inka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Работа РСЗО ВС РФ по целям ВСУ в районе Марьинки Военнослужащие-артиллеристы ВС РФ из установки БМ-21 "Град" уничтожают опорные пункты противника на Марьинском направлении. Работа по поражению противника и его пунктов ведется круглосуточно. @nm_dnr

t.me

Russian soldiers captured some Ukrainian POWs in combat action around Novomihailovka (about half way between Mar'inka and Ugledar).

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some footage of Russian forces near Ugledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian technical getting hit by an ATGM, DNR forces. I can't make out what they hit, but they hit something, there's a pretty large explosion.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR 100th Bde shows off quadcopter ops in support of artillery.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR 11th Rgt quadcopter munition drops on Ukrainian trenches.

Colonelcassad

Операторы дронов 11-го полка накидывают по украинской пехоте. Хорошая точность. Видео: https://t.me/nm_dnr

t.me

Misc.

Ukrainian M-109 operations, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian artillery strike against a Ukrainian M777.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Повёрнутые на войне

Ижевская ZALA корректирует огонь по американской гаубице M777 у края лесопосадки. Фронт Кременная-Сватово.

t.me

Ukrainian positions getting hit. Location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Разведчиками 35 армии группировки [V] был обнаружен замаскированный опорный пункт ВСУ. Наши бойцы оперативно осуществили наведение и корректировку огня артиллерии В результате был уничтожен склад боеприпасов, а также около 20 украинских боевиков Видео: @voin_dv

t.me

Ukrainian Oshkosh armored truck burns. It appears to have been transporting artillery shells.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly a Russian training camp for mobilized personnel over 100kms from the front line was attacked by 7 Ukrainian loitering munitions. They allegedly didn't kill anyone. Some were allegedly downed during the attack.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some footage of Russian ground crews and helo ops in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian 2B9 automatic mortar ops. Note that the Russian military badly lacks SP mortars, leading to improvisations such as mounting mortars in the backs of trucks.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Tu-141 launch platform, Ukrainian, being towed somehwere.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

NATO/EU.

Reportedly Canada will supply 200 Roshel Senator armored cars to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[John Fedup]

Update. Jan 17th-18th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian loitering munition takes out Ukrainian allegedly a RPMK-1 (1B44) (can't make out what the vehicle is) near Kherson.

Colonelcassad

БПЛА-камикадзе "Ланцет" уничтожает мобильную станцию РЭБ противника на Херсонском направлении. Видео: https://t.me/russian_airborne

t.me

Moscow calling

Уважаемые подписчики, поздравляю - нас, скорее всего, читает МО РФ! На этом видео российский барражирующий боеприпас, запущенный бойцами ВДВ, поражает украинский комплекс РЭБ / РТР. Внимательные подписчики заметили, чего же нет на этом видео? Правильно - самого прилёта, заснятого БПЛА "на...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

It is revealed that the Serbian volunteers recently discussed are joining the Russian Sudoplatov volunteer btln in Zaporozhye.

Colonelcassad

Батальон имени Судоплатова в Запорожской области пополнился добровольцами из Сербии. Военкор "Известий" Роман Польшаков пообщался с сербскими бойцами, которые приехали поддержать россиян. Они рассказали о том, почему решились покинуть дом и отправиться в Россию. Боец с позывным "Дунай" приехал...

t.me

The North.

A Ukrainian Super Puma helicopter crashed in Brovary near a kindergarten. Note the purchase of the type by Ukraine's MVD and GSChS was always somewhat questionable. Reportedly 18 people are dead and 29 wounded including MVD leadership and children from the kindergarten. Some witnesses claim the helo was already burning while in the air.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Moscow calling

В Броварах Киевской области рядом с детским садом и жилым домом упал вертолёт "Супер Пума" МВД Украины. Сообщают о значительном пожаре. Экипаж, вероятно, погиб.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Один из свидетелей падения вертолета заявляет, что вертолет горел еще в воздухе, что может указывать на то, что машина была поражена из ПЗРК или какого-то другого средства огневого поражения.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео с заявлением свидетельницы падения, которая говорит, что вертолет горел еще в воздухе и целенаправленно направлялся к детскому садику. На фото - обломки упавшего вертолета.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Всего в Броварах погибло 18 человек - 9 человек находившихся в вертолете + 9 человек в детском саду (из них 3 детей). 29 человек получили ранения (из них 15 детей) По свидетельству очевидцев, вертолет перед падением наворачивал круги над Броварами и вел себя так, как будто получил какие-то...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Первое видео с крушением вертолёта с высшим руководством МВД Украины в Броварах. https://t.me/anna_news/45426

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Киевской области разбился вертолет МЧС Украины. Кадры последствий пожара в Броварах. Видно, как в здании полностью выбило окна. Всего, по данным главы Нацполиции погибли 18человек, среди которых — двое детей и девять руководителей местного МВД, которые были в вертолете. По данным Национальной...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Первые кадры с места пожара после падения украинского вертолёта в Броварах в Киевской области.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео снятое вскоре после падение вертолета с руководством МВД Украины в Броварах + видео из детского сада, на который упал вертолет.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Artillery impacts during an interview with a Wagner fighter in Soledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some shots of Soledar after the fighting.

Colonelcassad

Соледар, несколько дней после штурма. Взятие Соледара даёт широкие возможности по развитию наступления наших сил

t.me

Allegedly the surviving personnel of a btln of the 116th Territorial Defense bde near Soledar. They're complaining that they're being used as cannon fodder, don't have the proper training or support, and their command is giving them criminal orders.

Colonelcassad

Уцелевший личный состав одного из батальонов 116-й бригады фольксштурма действовавшей на линии фронта Артемовск-Соледар жалуются Залужному и Зеленскому, что их командир отдает преступные приказы, а для выполнения боевых задач у них нет ни необходимой подготовки, ни необходимого...

t.me

Ukrainian soldiers as their company is being sent to Artemovsk/Bakhmut complain that their commander got "sick" as soon as the deployment came up, and their unit is missing all their company and platoon commanders, and are 60% short on personnel. They're also missing medics. It's unclear if this is due to casualties in combat or if the unit is just incomplete.

Colonelcassad

Узнав об отправке в Артемовск, командир роты ушел на больничный. Очередные жалобщики сообщают, что в роте, которую хотят отправить в Артемовск, отсутствует командир роты, командиры взводов, медики и 60% личного состава.

t.me

Ukrainian Mi-8 lobbing rockets, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian T-72 destroyed in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note it was penetrated right in the front glacis. In general the T-72A and T-72M variants are inadequately protected.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Т-72 ВСУ уничтоженный в ходе городских боев в Артемовске. Есть пробитие.

t.me

Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Разрушения в Артемовске. Бои постепенно смещаются в городскую черту, ввиду чего масштабы разрушений увеличиваются.

t.me

Sparta btln quadcopter munition drops, north of Pervomayskoe.

Colonelcassad

Постепенно занимаем позиции к северу от Первомайского. Погода не всегда лётная, показываем то, что удалось снять. На видео корректируем огонь артиллерии по окопам противника и разбиваем их сбросами с коптера. @zhogaartem

t.me

Combat footage of the DNR 5th Motor-Rifles, outskirts of Donetsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Fairly uncommon Russian 2B26 Grads near Mar'inka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Работа РСЗО ВС РФ по целям ВСУ в районе Марьинки Военнослужащие-артиллеристы ВС РФ из установки БМ-21 "Град" уничтожают опорные пункты противника на Марьинском направлении. Работа по поражению противника и его пунктов ведется круглосуточно. @nm_dnr

t.me

Russian soldiers captured some Ukrainian POWs in combat action around Novomihailovka (about half way between Mar'inka and Ugledar).

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some footage of Russian forces near Ugledar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian technical getting hit by an ATGM, DNR forces. I can't make out what they hit, but they hit something, there's a pretty large explosion.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR 100th Bde shows off quadcopter ops in support of artillery.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DNR 11th Rgt quadcopter munition drops on Ukrainian trenches.

Colonelcassad

Операторы дронов 11-го полка накидывают по украинской пехоте. Хорошая точность. Видео: https://t.me/nm_dnr

t.me

Misc.

Ukrainian M-109 operations, location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian artillery strike against a Ukrainian M777.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Повёрнутые на войне

Ижевская ZALA корректирует огонь по американской гаубице M777 у края лесопосадки. Фронт Кременная-Сватово.

t.me

Ukrainian positions getting hit. Location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Разведчиками 35 армии группировки [V] был обнаружен замаскированный опорный пункт ВСУ. Наши бойцы оперативно осуществили наведение и корректировку огня артиллерии В результате был уничтожен склад боеприпасов, а также около 20 украинских боевиков Видео: @voin_dv

t.me

Ukrainian Oshkosh armored truck burns. It appears to have been transporting artillery shells.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly a Russian training camp for mobilized personnel over 100kms from the front line was attacked by 7 Ukrainian loitering munitions. They allegedly didn't kill anyone. Some were allegedly downed during the attack.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some footage of Russian ground crews and helo ops in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian 2B9 automatic mortar ops. Note that the Russian military badly lacks SP mortars, leading to improvisations such as mounting mortars in the backs of trucks.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Tu-141 launch platform, Ukrainian, being towed somehwere.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

NATO/EU.

Reportedly Canada will supply 200 Roshel Senator armored cars to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some have been shipped earlier. Probably a LAV donation would be more useful as I can’t see our pollies ever committing their use with Canada’s army short of all out war in Europe.

 

[Feanor]

Some have been shipped earlier. Probably a LAV donation would be more useful as I can’t see our pollies ever committing their use with Canada’s army short of all out war in Europe.

Presumably these are cheaper and can be supplied in quantity relatively quickly. In general I have a poor opinion of these various armored cars based on civilian SUV or pickup truck chassis. Unlike a purpose-built military chassis, these often aren't meant to carry an armored body, and wear out quickly, leading to maintenance and lifespan issues. Additionally they often suffer from poor offroad mobility. By reports Ukraine is training something to the tune of 75 000 new troops. If it takes ~30-35 APCs or IFVs for a btln, and closer to 120 for a brigade and we're looking at 3 corps being formed, with let's say 3 infantry (mech, airborne, etc.) bdes each, that's almost a thousand APCs/IFVs. It's inevitable many units will ride whatever is available, be it surplus MRAPs better suited for COIN then high intensity warfare (I bet nobody ever thought the Wolfhound was going to get used for conventional frontal mechanized assaults), surplus Cold War era kit, or ersatz armored vehicles on civilian chassis. Note, Russia is facing the same problem. Pre-war nearly every unit rode in APCs/IFVs, and BMP-1s were relics left over in two Far Eastern brigades due to an oversight. Now the BMP-1 is back in mass numbers, and the VDV is rearming with armored cars/trucks. They're likely not the only ones. At least Russia can spit out 800+ APCs and IFVs per year (BTR-82s, BMP-3s, and BMD-4M/BTR-MDMs). Or at least could pre-war.

 

[JohnWolf]

I have been following events in the Russo-Ukraine war and have made note of new weapons systems entering the fray via the West. Lately, this appears to include;


138 x HMVVs

200 x Senator armored vehicles

55 x MRAPs

100 x M113

40 x Marder

50 x Bradley

10 x AMX-10 armored cars

60 +(?) x Leo II MTBs

18 x M-109 S.P. 155mm Artillery

36 x 105mm how. (towed)

And, hopefully, lots of trucks, AA guns & rockets, and Engineer units that can get the Leo IIs across a river. I have an idea for how to organize it all into a unit that can be used to mount the kind of offensives that will be needed for Ukraine to end this war.

Yes, ONE unit, so that the the maintenance unites for all this unique gear can be concentrated in the one place it is needed. In this case, putting all the eggs in one basket is the only way to keep it all in good fighting trim.

Note that I am not including the dozen Challengers from the UK in this. The only real use I see for one Company of tanks like that is a sort of Presidential Guard in Kiev. That is probably what is going to happen in any case, and they can serve as a deterrent to another quick thrust from Bellaruss.

This will be a large unit, but not really a Division, and only a battalion or two larger than a Brigade. I could call it a Brivion…. sounds better than a Digade, yeah?


To start with, I would like to see units organized in a way that they would actually be deployed, instead of always mixing them up during deployment. Unit cohesion matters here, and if the tankers, Infantry and MICV crews all know each other from the barracks then so much the better.

Ukraine seems wedded to the old Soviet type of Company and Battalion organization, so I will stick with the numbers involved there. Can’t ask them to take on too many new ideas at once, after all.




All Companies will be made of 3 x platoons + 1 x command vehicle

3 x tanks

3 x MICV

3 x M113

1 x Bradley


In two out of three Companies the MICVs will be Marders, so that each Battalion will have 6 x Marder and 5 x Bradley. I want there to be at least one 20 or 25mm auto-cannon to cover each and every one of those high-dollar tanks. The M113s are in the front lines because they can carry 10 x Infantry, the Bradley and Marder appear to have been configured to carry 6 each.

There will also be 2 x M113s for Battalion command. I don’t want Battalion commanders in the thick of it. They need to hang back and keep 30 vehicles under control.

These appear to be balanced units and there is enough for 6 x Battalions of this type, and leaves enough MICV for a couple of other important things.



Before I move on, something that I have trouble finding a use for is the 105s. The firepower of a mortar combined with the fuss & bother of a towed artillery piece, they seem to be headed for the wrong war. There are enough (just) to give each Battalion a battery of 6 guns each. The problem is how advanced counter-battery action is with the Russians. Towed units are not doing very well, and the only advantage these guns have over mortars is their mobility.


Massing all 36 of the 105mm is a tempting alternative. They could be standing by to smother and counter-battery fire against the M-109, or they could be used to draw fire so that the M-109s can do the counter fire. The later option is probably more likely since the M-109s have a considerably greater range with their 155mm. However, putting all the 105s into a super-battery for any mission requires some Arty bosses that really know what they are doing. So, I guess it is more likely that these guns will be in separate batteries for each Battalion.



There will be another maneuver battalion, for Reconnaissance.
The Senators from Canada seem solid enough on paper, but are just large armored SUVs. Since we have them, might as well use them, but I have no information on how good their off-road mobility really is.

A basic recon platoon will look like this;

1 x AMX-10

1 x Bradley

6 x Senators

Four of the Senators will carry a 4-man dismount team of scouts. I suggest a twin-mounting for 7.62mm MGs, one of them being on a quick-release mount so that one of the dismounts can take it with him. The rest should have a radio, a rifle suitable for sniping, and a grenade launcher. For the last one, I suggest the Inkunzi 20mm, a very nice piece of kit that should give the Russians a few surprises.

The other two Senators are for firepower; one with some sort of AA (ManPAD or a 14.5mm MG) and the other with a small MRLS, a rack of rockets anywhere from 76mm to 110. The heavier vehicles are the real protection for this unit, but a sudden barrage of rockets will be important for getting this platoon out of trouble, and these weapons are available locally.
There will be six of these platoons, enough for 2 x Companies.

For a light Company (and a stand-by in case the Senators don’t work out) there will be 24 x HMVV and 12 x Motorcycles. I don’t like the HMVV so much for this role since it only carries half as many dismounts, and they are noisy. The Motorcycles are they because they are available, and being able to quickly sneak through tight areas could be valuable. This company has 48 dismounts, just as many as the other companies, and could be better for urban operations. I suggest a mix of 12.7mm MGs and automatic grenade launchers for the HMVVs.

Lastly, there is a heavy Company of 4 x AMX and 4 x Bradley. The AMX armored cars are well-known, and so is the Bradley. The Bradley I see as the over-watch protection and the best tank-killer they are likely to have. It is also large and noisy, so the AMX is going to be the one working more closely with the Senators. This heavy unit is set aside as a reserve and for the tougher jobs.


Here is an important unit, and I took the idea for this from the old Panzer Divisions that had an integral TRAINING AND REPLACEMENT column.
This unit will require 65 experienced cadre and has a capacity of 200 new men with basic training behind them, but need of more instruction before being committed. The mix of equipment is extensive;

4 x Marder

5 x Bradley

6 x M113

6 x Tanks

1 x MRAP

3 x HMVV

4 x Senator

6 x trucks


One of each type of support weapon should be included plus samples of all the small arms. If the 105s are used for Battalion support a couple of those should be included.

This unit is NOT for combat. It is there to bring everyone up to speed on as many different weapon systems as possible, get them used to maneuvers and even give the maintenance units something to practice with. This is where replacement personnel and even replacement vehicles will come from during campaigns. The compliment of armored vehicles will diminish, but those that can be recovered from the front and repaired will go here first.



Artillery; I hope the M-109s come with ammo carriers on the same chassis but I don’t know for sure. They should have dedicated AAA & AAM batteries to protect them.

The 105s could be towed by armored trucks, it is the only series job for the MRAPs that I can think of. This should encourage the crews to try to save their guns when under fire instead of just leaving them when things start to get hot. Needless to say, the more skilled and motivated cannon-cockers will be with the 155mm batteries.
And, wow, that is 54 barrels, a Division’s worth of artillery. A lot for a Brigade or even a Brivon, but enough to overwhelm most Russian units.


Air defense; There must be AAMs, of course, but there also should be Gepard batteries. I have heard that there may be 17 of them there, so there ought to be 12 that are reliable enough to travel with these mixed battalions.

There are also Support and C-3 units to consider;

Logistics will need a minimum of 300 men, 140 x trucks, 2 x HMVV, 4 x light trucks (“trucks” already exist in Ukraine, and I am going to be non-specific because a hodge-podge of various types is what we are likely to get in any case)


Medical units I estimate at 215 men with 40 x trucks, 8 x off-road light trucks, and 8 x M113s working as battlefield ambulances.


Maintenance can’t get by with less than 200 TRAINED specialists (plus 200 trainees) and 56 trucks/recovery vehicles/etc., 6 x light trucks/cars & 2 motorcycles. I can also give them 3 Senator vehicles to react to snipers.


Engineers can’t settle for less than 250 men, 8 x HMVV, 4 x light trucks and 44 trucks & special machines (including that bridging column) and 8 x motorcycles.


(Yes, I know modern tech has reduced the manpower requirements for all the above units, but these units need to be able to absorb casualties too, and the Replacement Column can’t fill the special needs of these units.)


Command & Control requires 300 men, 10 x HMVV, 8 x Senator, 3 x M113, 20 x trucks, 6 x light trucks/offroad cars, and 6 x motorcycles.


MPs; 42 men, 4 x HMVV, 2 x Senator, 1 x truck, 12 x Motorcycles


Rear area Security Detail; 66 men, 4 x HMVV, 6 x Senator (with 2 x ManPAD), 6 x motorcycles, 2 x Bradley.


Motorcycles…. why not? If communications get jammed or if you just need to put a pair of eyes on something, they are very economical.


This Brivon can be broken in half or into thirds. In fact it is designed that way. The command unit, however, is not, and I don’t think that six maneuver battalions are too much for a competent headquarters. After a year of combat there must be some very competent Headquarters people in the Ukraine.

It also is not all that large a unit, thanks in part to the small size of the Battalions. There would be about 4,500 men and over 1,500 Infantry/Scouts not including support weapon crews.

So, does it seem good, or maybe go conventional with 2 Battalions of each (Tanks, MIVC and APC)?

 

[John Fedup]

Presumably these are cheaper and can be supplied in quantity relatively quickly. In general I have a poor opinion of these various armored cars based on civilian SUV or pickup truck chassis. Unlike a purpose-built military chassis, these often aren't meant to carry an armored body, and wear out quickly, leading to maintenance and lifespan issues. Additionally they often suffer from poor offroad mobility. By reports Ukraine is training something to the tune of 75 000 new troops. If it takes ~30-35 APCs or IFVs for a btln, and closer to 120 for a brigade and we're looking at 3 corps being formed, with let's say 3 infantry (mech, airborne, etc.) bdes each, that's almost a thousand APCs/IFVs. It's inevitable many units will ride whatever is available, be it surplus MRAPs better suited for COIN then high intensity warfare (I bet nobody ever thought the Wolfhound was going to get used for conventional frontal mechanized assaults), surplus Cold War era kit, or ersatz armored vehicles on civilian chassis. Note, Russia is facing the same problem. Pre-war nearly every unit rode in APCs/IFVs, and BMP-1s were relics left over in two Far Eastern brigades due to an oversight. Now the BMP-1 is back in mass numbers, and the VDV is rearming with armored cars/trucks. They're likely not the only ones. At least Russia can spit out 800+ APCs and IFVs per year (BTR-82s, BMP-3s, and BMD-4M/BTR-MDMs). Or at least could pre-war.

I admit I am not really all that familiar with the Senator armoured vehicle. and you are spot on wrt it not being completely suitable but better than nothing I suppose. As it is based on a Ford HD pickup chaise, should have some reasonable support but again any available CAF LAVs would be more useful.

 

[Feanor]

I admit I am not really all that familiar with the Senator armoured vehicle. and you are spot on wrt it not being completely suitable but better than nothing I suppose. As it is based on a Ford HD pickup chaise, should have some reasonable support but again any available CAF LAVs would be more useful.

It's part of a trend of armored vehicles built by taking a civilian SUV or pickup chassis and putting a armored hull on it. Streit Group in the UAE is known for it. In some cases it's a country that doesn't have the ability to manufacture proper armored vehicles resorting to improvisation, like the Georgian Didgori. In some cases the market for these is more law enforcement then military, and therefore off-road capability is are less of a concern. But in many cases military's reliant on foreign aid, or desperate and unable to afford anything else, are stuck receiving these less-than-ideal options. To be perfectly honest I prefer the Russian approach of taking military trucks and using them as the chassis for an armored hull. What you get is typically inferior to a proper MRAP but features much better mobility, and can frequently support better protection levels. But of course neither approach is ideal.

 

[JohnWolf]

It's part of a trend of armored vehicles built by taking a civilian SUV or pickup chassis and putting a armored hull on it. Streit Group in the UAE is known for it. In some cases it's a country that doesn't have the ability to manufacture proper armored vehicles resorting to improvisation, like the Georgian Didgori. In some cases the market for these is more law enforcement then military, and therefore off-road capability is are less of a concern. But in many cases military's reliant on foreign aid, or desperate and unable to afford anything else, are stuck receiving these less-than-ideal options. To be perfectly honest I prefer the Russian approach of taking military trucks and using them as the chassis for an armored hull. What you get is typically inferior to a proper MRAP but features much better mobility, and can frequently support better protection levels. But of course neither approach is ideal.

That all sounds legit, and with the raspusita right around the corner it does matter. There are Strikers and MRAPs available, but those seem like a lot of vehicle to transport a half-squad of Scouts, and a big noisy one on the part of the MRAP.
Maybe making the Senators into dual-ies by adding 2 wheels to the rear axle would solve the issue, but only the Ukrainians on the ground can tell us that for sure.
They are already being used to patrol the border with Belarus so there should be some good data on that.

One thing is certain, a unit like this would need at least 2-3 months of training and "working-up" if the maximum benefit is going to be gained from it. That means the planning staf would have to get started now.

Maybe they could use Transdneisteria for a final exam. I have been wondering why Ukraine and Moldova continue to tolerate the existance of that place, loaded-up as it must be with Russian surveillance equipent.

 

[Bob53]

Writers for breaking defence suggesting that a political settlement and succession of land by Ukraine should be tied to further arms supplies. May be just give the Russians Alaska instead? A controversial idea: Jets for Ukraine in exchange for treaty talks with Moscow - Breaking Defense

 

[tonnyc]

Writers for breaking defence suggesting that a political settlement and succession of land by Ukraine should be tied to further arms supplies. May be just give the Russians Alaska instead? A controversial idea: Jets for Ukraine in exchange for treaty talks with Moscow - Breaking Defense

Land concession is just asking for another war ten years later. Worse, it will tell the world that it's okay to invade a weaker neighbour to grab land. Either they win immediately and get the land, or they stretch the war for a year and then other countries force the neighbour to cede the land, thus giving them the land.

So yeah, I agree with (sarcastic) Bob53. If some Americans suggest that land cession should be part of the aid package, maybe they should suggest that they cede American land instead. After all, if it's that important to end the war, they should be willing to cede their land, no? It doesn't have to be the whole Alaska even. Just maybe 200,000 square miles, about the size of Ukraine. It's only a third of Alaska and I am sure Russia will take the trade. It's for world peace.

 

[Vivendi]

I'm honestly curious what land forces refers to. And if you read the article the numbers are contradictory. They talk about 1500 dead, which would imply another 4500 wounded. But the entire brigade (200th MRBde) is ~4200 soldiers. They then talk about 1274 children qualifying for school meals based on KIA or WIA parent. That's ~300+ KIA and ~900+ WIA. Also in Kola is the 61st Marines (Bde or Rgt, can't keep track of their flip-flopping). Technically neither the 200th nor the 61st are Land Forces. Both belong to the Northern Fleet Command. Thus the 200th MRBde falls under the Coastal Troops (forming a Corps together with the 80th Arctic MRBde just south of there). So technically the Land Forces aren't reduced at all because... I don't think there are any Land Forces units there?

Notable is that the 61st Marines has been entirely absent from the war in Ukraine, at least as far as I can tell. So if say Land Forces means forces that fight on land (rather then being the proper noun name of the Russian Army, which it is) then even if the 200th MRBde ceased to exist, it would still only reduce force strength by 50%.

In the Intelligence Report it says 1500 lost not dead... I may be wrong but I suspect both KIA and WIA are included in those 1,500. Thus, I suspect it's the journalist that wrote the article that may have misinterpreted. I do not know what they mean by "land forces" -- for sure they have a definition, and they clearly state that they have been reduced by 80% on Kola. And note they do not say that 80% are "lost" (or "killed") but that 80% of the land forces that used to be in Kola are currently not in Kola.

 

[Feanor]

In the Intelligence Report it says 1500 lost not dead... I may be wrong but I suspect both KIA and WIA are included in those 1,500. Thus, I suspect it's the journalist that wrote the article that may have misinterpreted. I do not know what they mean by "land forces" -- for sure they have a definition, and they clearly state that they have been reduced by 80% on Kola. And note they do not say that 80% are "lost" (or "killed") but that 80% of the land forces that used to be in Kola are currently not in Kola.

If Land Forces is the proper noun, then there are no Land Forces in Kola, and there were none at the start of the war. If Land Forces refers to ground units with combat power, then this seems unlikely, unless the 61st Marines have similarly deployed most of their strength. We've head nothing of them in the war so far (other then vague rumors that one of their btlns was sitting in a BDK off the coast of Odessa at the start). It's possible that the writer of the article simply doesn't understand that the 200th Motor-Rifles are part of the Northern Fleet and thinks they, and only they, are the Land Forces in the Kola Peninsula. But then it's a little misleading to talk about land forces instead of just saying 200th MRBde. If the entire point of the article is that the 200th MRBde took heavy losses in Ukraine, then the answer is yes, of course. Oryx did a piece on it earlier.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Jan 19th-20th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

A Ukrainian howitzer getting hit, Kherson region.

Война Z Украина

Уничтожение гаубицы ВСУ на Херсонском направлении алтиллерийским огнем.

t.me

Russian strikes landing in Odessa region.

Colonelcassad

В Одесской области прогремел взрыв, сообщают местные паблики. Очевидцы пишут о столбе чёрного дыма на месте прилёта.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly Ukrainian munition storage hit in Kherson region.

Colonelcassad

В ходе ночных ударов в Херсоне уничтожен склад боеприпасов ВСУ. Последствия вторичных детонаций и пожара наблюдаются до сих пор.

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian artillery fires in Stepnoe village, near Orekhovo.

Colonelcassad

Боевиков ВСУ на Ореховском направлении Запорожского фронта не спасают ни окопы, ни опорные пункты. На кадрах — вскрытие полевой фортификации и опорного пункта 65-й бригады ВСУ, возведённого в частном домовладении села Степового. Оператор разведывательного коптера обнаружил движение живой силы...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LDNR Front.

Wagner forces 2S5 and D-1 fires, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian artillery is reportedly landing more actively on the western outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Артиллерия начинается все более активно обрабатывать западные окраины Артемовска. Прилет в районе памятника МиГ-17, у которого любят фотографироваться заезжающие в Артемовск иностранные наемники. Видео: https://t.me/ChDambiev

t.me

Wagner fighters in the Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

"Музыканты" продвигают на окраинах Бахмута. @anna_news

t.me

Ukrainian Humvees near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly Wagner forces have taken Klescheevka. With hindsight we know that this served as the basis for further Russian attacks on the road from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Konstantinovka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Explosions after a Russian strike against Konstantinovka. Reportedly it was a munition storage facility.

Colonelcassad

Пожар и детонация на складе боеприпасов ВСУ в Константиновке после ракетного прилета. Также удары наносились в районе Артемовска, Часов Яра, Дружковки и Славянска.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian strike hit a kindergarten in Kramatorsk, reportedly being used as a Ukrainian staging area.

Colonelcassad

Располага ВСУ в детском саду в Краматорске после прилета. Также пишут, что информацию о нахождении в здании ВСУшников слили местные жители.

t.me

School No1 in Mariupol' stands in ruins. Most of the city is effectively destroyed.

Moscow calling

Мариуполь, школа №1. Выстояла Великую Отечественную войну, не выстояла "освобождение Донбасса" от непонятно кого...

t.me

Russia.

SHORAD is being set up on building roofs in Moscow. This is both an admission of issues with Russian existing air defense set up, as well as a recognition of the capabilities that Ukraine now has. On the flip side this is an indication that Russia would rather shoot down inbounds over Moscow then give up on the war effort.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Misc.

Russian loitering munition taking out a Ukrainian 2S3.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение 152-й САУ "Акация" Отработана БПЛА-камикадзе "Ланцет". Видео: https://t.me/rusich_army/7316 PS. Поправка. Это не "Паладин", а "Акация".

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian T-64BV knocked out and abandoned. Note the Z, it's unclear if this was placed to avoid destruction of a salvageable tank or this tank was captured, used by Russian forces and then knocked out.

Colonelcassad

Трофейный Т-64БВ ВСУ, брошенный новыми хозяевами @infantmilitario

t.me

A Ukrainian Osa. Note this is a Polish-supplied upgraded variant. It appears to be downing a Russian Orlan UAV.

Moscow calling

Польская модернизация советского ЗРК "Оса" в составе ВСУ сбивает российский БПЛА типа "Орлан". Видео интересно работой расчета ЗРК, его интерьером, и эмоциями, конечно.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Ukrainian BMP-2 with an "interesting" flag.

Colonelcassad

‼️‍☠️Боевики ВСУ с нацистским знаменем на БМП На черном флаге орел, стилизованный под Третий рейх и так называемого Чёрное солнце - один из видов свастики. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

 

[Vivendi]

Breaking news: US President Biden is on a surprise visit in Kyiv:

President Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine – Rolling Stone

Given the obvious fact that Ukraine is an active battlefield, both the Secret Service and the Defense Department had security objections to some of the plans presented. The Secret Service did not respond to Rolling Stone’s requests for comment, and the Defense Department referred questions to the White House.

The senior White House official says the concerns stemmed from the “unpredictability of the environment and the reduced security footprint required to support the movement of the president.”

Ultimately, Biden selected Kyiv, a city that stands as a symbolic gesture of Ukraine’s resolve after Russian forces tried and failed to capture the capital city early in the war last year.

Biden walking with Zelensky in Kyiv while air sirens are blasting: (((Tendar))) on Twitter: "There cannot be a stronger commitment than this. US President Biden walking alongside President Zelenskyy inside the city of Kyiv. #Ukraine #USA #Kyiv https://t.co/yYS9NUq0y4" / Twitter

POTUS' own tweet: President Biden on Twitter: "As we approach the anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, I'm in Kyiv today to meet with President Zelenskyy and reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity." / Twitter

When was the last time a US president was visiting a country in the middle of a large war?

Anyway this clearly show the strong commitment to Ukraine by the current US administration. Well done Biden!

(Interesting that Rolling Stone broke these news -- it seems other news outlets including CNN were caught by complete surprise...?)

 

[Vivendi]

Meanwhile in Russia: Dmitri on Twitter: " https://t.co/FjaQxVB9eu" / Twitter

It seems Wagner is having serious issues obtaining ammunition.

Is this part of a power struggle? Or is Russia running really low on ammo? I am guessing it's the former, and hoping it's the latter.

 

[swerve]

Breaking news: US President Biden is on a surprise visit in Kyiv:

President Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine – Rolling Stone
...

(Interesting that Rolling Stone broke these news -- it seems other news outlets including CNN were caught by complete surprise...?)

Rolling Stone didn't break it. The Rolling Stone story quotes tweets, & I first saw it on the BBC, timed 6 minutes before the third tweet in the Rolling Stone story, so obviously earlier than whole Rolling Stone story. The first tweet I've seen was 4 minutes before the BBC report.

The BBC had earlier reports of a visit by "a high-ranking western official" being expected, as roads were blocked off, but nobody knew who.

 

[Milne Bay]

Meanwhile in Russia: Dmitri on Twitter: " https://t.co/FjaQxVB9eu" / Twitter

It seems Wagner is having serious issues obtaining ammunition.

Is this part of a power struggle? Or is Russia running really low on ammo? I am guessing it's the former, and hoping it's the latter.

I think that Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin should stay well away from eighteen storey windows.
He seems to be "on the nose" with the oligarchy
MB

 

[kato]

A Ukrainian BMP-2 with an "interesting" flag.

Colonelcassad

‼️‍☠️Боевики ВСУ с нацистским знаменем на БМП На черном флаге орел, стилизованный под Третий рейх и так называемого Чёрное солнце - один из видов свастики. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

The caption in the Telegram post is not correct. It's actually worse. The eagle looking to the heraldic left is not the symbol of the Third Reich (that would be looking heraldic right), but instead explicitly a symbol of the NSDAP, i.e. the then-ruling German nazi party.

Given they used the black sun - a common symbol among neonazis repurposed in this combination solely to avoid the bans against showing the swastika - for the flag they probably assume that no one would notice the "flipped" eagle and they could just slip it by. That eagle in itself would be a banned symbol in Germany already.

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile in Russia: Dmitri on Twitter: " https://t.co/FjaQxVB9eu" / Twitter

It seems Wagner is having serious issues obtaining ammunition.

Is this part of a power struggle? Or is Russia running really low on ammo? I am guessing it's the former, and hoping it's the latter.

It's probably part of the power struggle. It's not even clear if it's real, though it could be. Wagner got quite a bit of artillery recently, and of all different types. They got Giatsints, D-20s, D-1s, Grads, Uragan, and possibly even some 2S7s. So this could be less of a shortage and more that they are having trouble keeping themselves supplied, and are trying to push the MoD into devoting more resources to their logistics specifically. Some have speculated that this situation is like the '14-'15 situation where Russia used the threat of logistics to get various rebel leaders in Eastern Ukraine to cooperate. But that doesn't necessarily make sense. Prigozhin himself isn't on the front line, and he's already part of the Russian establishment.

The caption in the Telegram post is not correct. It's actually worse. The eagle looking to the heraldic left is not the symbol of the Third Reich (that would be looking heraldic right), but instead explicitly a symbol of the NSDAP, i.e. the then-ruling German nazi party.

Given they used the black sun - a common symbol among neonazis repurposed in this combination solely to avoid the bans against showing the swastika - for the flag they probably assume that no one would notice the "flipped" eagle and they could just slip it by. That eagle in itself would be a banned symbol in Germany already.

Ukraine is going to have one hell of a clean up after the war. Assuming some sort of liberal democracy really is on the agenda.

EDIT: Prigozhin is blaming the supply situation on a conflict with Russian MoD.

Moscow calling

"Перед кем извиниться? Кому повиниться?" Евгений Пригожин дал понять, что т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер" не дают боеприпасы из-за конфликта с Минобороны РФ. — Все кивают куда-то наверх, показывая пальцем вверх и говоря: "Вы же знаете, Евгений Викторович, у вас непростые отношения вон там. Показывают...

t.me

 

[Vivendi]

Defense Minister Reznikov confirms Ukraine will receive long-range missiles during the first half of 2023, with a range of 150-200 km. Most likely he is referring to the GLSDB, which it was said would take 9 months to deliver after contract had been signed. However some source suggested it may happen a bit faster than that. Defense Minister Reznikov confirms Ukraine will receive long-range missiles

Perhaps introduction of GLSDB may have a bigger immediate impact than the introduction of Western tanks, which seems to take quite a long time to introduce in significant numbers.

 

[Vivendi]

Ukraine is going to have one hell of a clean up after the war. Assuming some sort of liberal democracy really is on the agenda.

No doubt there is a lot of work to be done. On the other hand it's not nearly as bad as Russian propaganda keeps claiming.
DW fact-checked some persistent myths:

Is there any truth to Russia's 'Ukrainian Nazis' propaganda? – DW – 12/03/2022

Russian propagandists are constantly saying Ukraine is full of Nazis, and posting alleged evidence online. DW's fact-checking team has investigated some of this supposed evidence.

www.dw.com

USA today fact checked a story about a man pictured with Swastika and concluded he was Russian not Ukrainian: Fact check: Images show Russian citizen with swastika tattoo, not Ukrainian soldier

Unpacked story about this topic: Does Ukraine really have a ‘Nazi problem?' - Unpacked
referring to American Jewish Committee’s report which says that Jews in Ukraine in general do not face acts of violence or public condemnations of Israel. In 2018, the Pew Research Center found Ukraine to be the most accepting of Jews among all Central and Eastern European countries.

It is also difficult to understand that a country with a huge Nazi problem can have a Jewish president and Jewish (ex)-PM.

On the other hand, it's clear that Ukraine is not a liberal democracy as we have in most "Western" countries. But I am confident that the illegal unprovoked invasion by Russia will act as a catalyst and accelerate change in Ukraine. Ukraine has seen the ugly face of Russian imperialism, and the only option they have is to fully embrace the liberal democracy and fight corruption. A large majority of Ukranians now support both EU and NATO membership, and they are ready for change. They just have a war to win first.

Ukraine: EU membership poll 2022 | Statista

Approximately 80 percent of Ukrainians would vote for their country's accession to the European Union (EU), according to a survey from July 2022.

www.statista.com

Ukraine opinion on NATO membership 2022 | Statista

Seven out of ten Ukrainians would vote for their country's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to a survey from July 2022.

www.statista.com