The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update. Oct 15th-16th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian Pantsyr firing on allegedly a Ukrainian HARM in Kherson region.

АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z

Работа Панцирь-С1 по уничтожению противолокационной ракеты Херсонском направлении. Архангел Спецназа. Подписаться.

t.me

Russian LMUR strikes against the crossing in Kherson region. Note the sunken Kipri in the footage? We've seen this crossing before. So this leads to some interesting conclusions. Russia clearly has no difficulty hitting the crossing with PGMs and often even with vehicles on the pontoons. We have plenty of footage to support this. This suggests that it's relatively easy for Ukraine to restore the crossing after a strike.

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vk.com

A smashed Ukrainian column near Davydov Brod. Note the 2 destroyed VABs, and 2 Husky TSV, also the many unarmored trucks/cars. The Huskys reportedly hit land mines.

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vk.com

Strikes on the Nikolaev port have led to major fires. The target is allegedly a munition storage facility. Shahed-136 were involved.

Colonelcassad

Видео прилетов по Николаевскому порту. Сообщают о как минимум 5 попаданиях, после которых в двух местах была слышна детонация. Можно отметить, что на первом видео "Герань" идет на цель под звуки хаотичного огня из автоматического стрелкового оружия.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Пожар в Николаеве не могут потушить до сих пор. Также сообщается о нескольких десятках погибших ВСУшников при ударах по порту и последующих детонациях боеприпасов.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Пожар в Николаеве после одного из прилетов "Герани-2".

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Николаеве сильный пожар после взрыва склада боеприпасов успешно сбившего собой "Герань".

t.me

Moscow calling

Удар ВС по Николаеву с использованием, предположительно, БПЛА "Шахид-136". Пожар хороший, хотя и без детонаций.

t.me

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Traces of Russian jets over Kherson region after strikes.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Zaporozhye region, it appears a Russian loitering munition struck a Buk decoy.

Moscow calling

t.me

Geo-location of the recent destruction of Ukrainian S-300 TELs. Note the Russian UAV filming the strike from above, and the third TEL parked neatly next to them, clearly visible. Why wasn't it also hit? We've seen Lancets used on unarmored SUVs carrying infantry. None were available for this? And why strike the TELs but not the radars? The latter are far more valuable.

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Moscow calling

Штош, вынужден признать свою неправоту - южнее села Новостепнянское Запорожской области (47.809542, 35.420950) действительно были уничтожены две поставленные рядом пусковые установки С-300 ВСУ. Данное село расположено в 30 км от линии фронта и находится под контролем ВСУ, так что постановка...

t.me

Sumy-Poltava.

Russian strikes in Sumy region.

Донбасс Россия

⚡️⚡️⚡️Сумская область. Отработка Авиацией позиций нацистов: скопления тяжëлой бронированной техники, РСЗО, складов БК. С первого захода уничтожили позиции, со второго захода цель была полностью поражена! @donbassrussiazvo Подпишись на канал!

t.me

Oskol Front.

Russian artillery strikes near Torskoe. We see an allegedly Ukrainian T-64 destroyed.

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vk.com

Russian strikes on Khorotich airfield, Kharkov region, on Oct 14th.

Colonelcassad

Прилет по аэродрому Коротич (Харьковская область) 14 октября во время серии ударов в Харьковской области.

t.me

Two more destroyed Bushmasters and a civilian car(1st), and a knocked out BTR-4 (2nd) Kharkov region.

Colonelcassad

Еще 2 уничтоженныx австралийских бронеавтомобиля "Бушмастер" в Харьковской области. Источник: https://t.me/Z_BOEV_LIST_Z

t.me

.

You can view and join @Z_BOEV_LIST_Z right away.

t.me

LDNR Front.

A rebel Ural carrying an artillery battery commander hit a land mine, driver is reportedly KIA, the officer WIA.

На войне как на войне.

Помните Прохора? Комадира артиллерийской батареи, которому мы связь делаем. Позавчера он в Камазе подорвался на противотанковой мине. Водитель погиб, Прохор контужен. Вторая ТМка, которая была в колее со стороны Прохора не сработала Второй День рождения, реально. "Урал" - два метра жизни.

leon-spb67.livejournal.com

Heavily shelled Ukrainian positions near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note the destroyed trees, this was likely a tree-line.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗Перепаханные позиции ВСУ под Бахмутом.

t.me

Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Последствия боев, обстрелов и прилетов в Артемовске.

t.me

Shellings of Donetsk continue.

Colonelcassad

После прилета по Донецкому горсовету.

t.me

Moscow calling

Последствия сегодняшнего (прилёт в 7:40) обстрела здания Донецкой администрации со стороны ВСУ.

t.me

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Rebel forces operating S-60 guntrucks near Lisichansk. We've seen these before from both sides, looking awfully similar. There's a chance these were captured from Ukrainian forces.

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Wagner line defenses being built near Lisichansk.

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Wagner fighters digging in, likely part of the new defense line near Lisichansk.

РИА Новости

Боец группы "Вагнер" на передовой: мы не сдадим те территории, где находимся

t.me

Russia.

Missile launches in Sevastopol', either air defenses, or a strike. Russian officialdom claims this is air defense exercises. I have my doubts.

Moscow calling

В Севастополе какой-то движ. По одним данным - работа ПВО и слышны взрывы, по другим - пуск противокорабельной ракеты берегового базирования "Бастион", оснащенный сверхзвуковыми ракетами "Оникс", способными работать и по наземным целям.

t.me

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Air defenses firing, Belgorod region.

Moscow calling

В Белгородской области тоже весело - работа ПВО, местные сообщают о пожаре на нефтебазе в районе села Разумное (50.591283, 36.670308).

t.me

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vk.com

HARM fragments, Belgorod region. It appears Ukraine has shifted their SEAD/DEAD efforts to here.

Colonelcassad

⚔Обломки сбитой американской противорадиолокационной ракеты AGM-88 HARM в одном из белгородских сёл Украинские ВВС при помощи ударов с истребителей МиГ-29 и Су-27 с данными ракетами, а также при поддержке разведчиков Су-24МР, пытаются проредить российское ПВО в Белгородской области.

t.me

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Razumnoe village, Belgorod region, smoke rising after a Ukrainian strike. There is reportedly a fuel storage facility there.

Moscow calling

Кадры с пожара на нефтебазе в селе Разумное Белгородской области.

t.me

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Strikes reported near the Belgorod airport.

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A captured BTR-4 being transported, inside Russia.

Дал Дал Взлетел

You can view and join @lostarmour right away.

t.me

Iranian cargo flights to Russia continue.

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New Wagner fighters training for deployment to Ukraine.

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Misc.

Ukrainian forces using the Pansarvärnspjäs 1110 recoilless rifle in combat.

Центр Рубеж

В боевых действиях у ВСУ засветилась такая экзотика как 90-мм безоткатное орудие Pansarvärnspjäs 1110 шведского производства и разработки 1950-х гг.

t.me

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Russian MBT taking out a Ukrainian technical. Location and context unclear. Note the thermals.

Moscow calling

Украинская тачанка против теплака на танке в ВС РФ. Кто кого? Ваши ставки, уважаемые подписчики.

t.me

Russian SpN blowing up a crossing somewhere in Ukraine.

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Ukrainian Mastiff MRAP hit a landmine, location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Подорвавшийся на противотанковой мине британский бронеавтомобиль "Мастиф".

t.me

Ukrainian improvised MLRS, destroyed.

По ИГИЛовским заветам (8).

Уничтоженная самодельная 80мм(?) РСЗО ВСУ.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Ukrainian improvised MLRS, likely using S-8 rockets.

По ИГИЛовским заветам (7).

Красиво и грамотно сделанная украинскими боевиками РСЗО под НУР С-8.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Smoke rising from a Russian T-90M, hatches open. It appears to be knocked out. Location and context unclear.

Moscow calling

ВСУ опубликовали дымящий Т-90М ВС РФ Это третий танк такого типа (новейшая модификация Т-90), потеря которой в Z-операции документально зафиксирована.

t.me

ВС РФ потеряли еще один Т-90М в Украине

gurkhan.blogspot.com

A ex-Danish M113G3DK, in Ukraine.

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Ukraine's prototype Uragan upgrade, the Burviy, on a Tatra chassis, was recently spotted. This follows the trend of prototype systems being used in combat.

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Belarus.

Reportedly Russia will be deploying troops to Belarus to form a joint grouping of 9000.

Colonelcassad

Согласно заявлению белорусского оборонного ведомства, общая численность российской группировки в Белоруссии будет составлять чуть менее 9 000 человек. Основную часть группировки составят белорусские войска. Тем временем переброска личного состава и техники российских частей, которые войдут в...

t.me

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NATO/EU.

Ukrainian service members training on unmanned submersibles in the UK.

Moscow calling

Украинские военные в Великобритании проходят обучение по применению подводных беспилотников. Казалось бы, при чём тут "Северные потоки" и Крымский мост?

t.me

More advanced AGM-88Bs have been spotted in Ukraine.

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A British Ferret Mk 1 allegedly being operated by Azov in Ukraine.

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[Feanor]

A Kiwi ex soldier who is fighting in Ukraine has told of the conditions that they have found Russian conscripts in. Basically they're either dead or POWs and the POW option appears to be a better option than serving in the front line. At least as POWs they are regularly fed and kept warm, which is far better than the way their own army is treating them. Winter is coming and will the VDV have proper winter clothing for its soldiers? I absolutely think not and the more this goes on the more I am reminded of the similarities between the current Russian political leadership, the Russian military, and the Nazi German political leadership and Wehrmacht about this time in 1941, and again at the onset of the Battle of Stalingrad.

Russian conscripts captured or killed within days in Ukraine, says ex-NZ soldier

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave mobilisation orders to over 300,000 men.

www.nzherald.co.nz

Again very vague statements of growing surrenders and easy KIAs but no substatiation. If there is a major uptick in Russian POWs, why not show them? We know Russia still has thousands of Ukrainian POWs. Presumably some exchanges are necessary. Even the recent withdrawal in Kherson didn't yield the same piles of abandoned equipment that the Kharkov one did.

 

[STURM]

Russia clearly has no difficulty hitting the crossing with PGMs and often even with vehicles on the pontoons.

Which shows that despite the successful use by the Ukrainians of a vertical defence strategy aimed at air denial the Russians are still able to deploy airpower to hit key targets. The question is why wasn't that crossing defended by MANPADs.

A British Ferret Mk 1 allegedly being operated by Azov in Ukraine.

I know the Ukrainians are being transferred everything that can still move and shoot but I never expected a Ferret to pop up. A possibility is that it was acquired from a vehicle dealer in the U.K.

 

[Vivendi]

Australia pledges extra $200 million in military aid to Ukraine: Labor pledges extra $200m in Australian aid for Ukraine and $500m for veterans in budget

Finland is preparing the 10th aid package to Ukraine: Henri Vanhanen on Twitter: / Twitter

Norwegian firemen have collectively gathered more than 50 firetrucks and transported them to Ukraine in their spare time, covering the cost from their own pockets. Ukraine has lost more than 1,700 firetrucks since the war started. Se, her slukker ukrainerne med norsk brann-utstyr (tv2.no)

Norwegian veterans are raising money, purchasing drones and other equipment, and bring this to the front line: Droner fra Norge angriper russiske soldater i Ukraina – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer

Similar things happen in Finland, Sweden and Denmark (and probably other European countries as well).

 

[GermanHerman]

To the surprise of absolutly no one it seems that the official 300k target for mobilisation was bogus or at least so tells us a look at russian excess marriages.

According to this method one can deduct that russia has mobilized roughly 500.000 (492k) men by mid october.

Of cause this also includes some uncertainty as it is based on statistics but I found this was an interesting approach.

 

[Dex]

To the surprise of absolutly no one it seems that the official 300k target for mobilisation was bogus or at least so tells us a look at russian excess marriages.

According to this method one can deduct that russia has mobilized roughly 500.000 (492k) men by mid october.

Of cause this also includes some uncertainty as it is based on statistics but I found this was an interesting approach.

How is the Russian economy going to survive the winter with a million + men who are either mobilized or fled the country. That's a lot of men in regular positions that aren't working anymore. Add that with the sanctions applied to Russia which adds more pressure. A lot of companies will have to shutdown. A lot of companies who rely on those shutdown companies are going to have to pause their operations. This is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Vivendi]

Very interesting article based on Russian documents found in an abandoned base: Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine (reuters.com)

By the end of August, the documents show, the force was depleted, hit by death, desertions and combat stress. Two units – accounting for about a sixth of the total force – were operating at 20% of their full strength.

It seems that the Russians knew Ukraine was planning a counteroffensive. They most likely had no reinforcements to send. Or alternatively, the higher-ups decided not to send anybody for other reasons.

The article also describes torture and rape done by the occupiers:

Two men - one a firefighter, the other an inspector in the emergency services - said their jailers beat them with wooden batons and administered electric shocks.  Russian soldiers questioned the inspector repeatedly about his calls with his supervisor in Kharkiv. They accused him of compiling a list of Ukrainians who had collaborated with the Russians, which he denies. The firefighter said he was accused of hiding weapons and organising a local partisan group, which he too denies. Albina Strilets, a 33-year-old logistics coordinator for the emergency services, recounted that she and other women were held simply for being “pro-Ukrainian.”

“I heard men being beaten so badly that at one point I heard a Russian soldier say, ‘bring a body bag,’” Strilets said. “Another time I heard a woman being raped upstairs and crying for hours.” Strilets said she broke the cell’s toilet so “it sounded like a waterfall” and would block out the woman’s screaming.

 

[Feanor]

Which shows that despite the successful use by the Ukrainians of a vertical defence strategy aimed at air denial the Russians are still able to deploy airpower to hit key targets. The question is why wasn't that crossing defended by MANPADs.

Some of these LMUR launches are coming from very long range, and the munition itself is a rather small target. It's possible that the MANPADS available aren't capable of intercepting the munition, and don't have the range to strike the carrier.

I know the Ukrainians are being transferred everything that can still move and shoot but I never expected a Ferret to pop up. A possibility is that it was acquired from a vehicle dealer in the U.K.

There have been many cases of private party purchases of equipment, so it's certainly plausible.

 

[Redlands18]

Australia to train Ukrainian troops, send additional Bushmasters - Defence Connect
Another 30 Bushmaster's to be sent to Ukraine but no Hawkeii's at this stage, and up to 70 ADF personnel are being sent to the UK to help train Ukraine forces under Operation Interflex, but they will not enter Ukraine.

 

[ngatimozart]

Very interesting article based on Russian documents found in an abandoned base : Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine (reuters.com)

By the end of August, the documents show, the force was depleted, hit by death, desertions and combat stress. Two units - accounting for about a sixth of the total force - were operating at 20% of their full strength.

It seems that the Russians knew Ukraine was planning a counteroffensive. They most likely had no reinforcements to send. Or alternatively, the higher-ups decided not to send anybody for other reasons.

The article also describes torture and rape done by the occupiers :

Yes I read it last night. It makes for quite interesting reading and shows just how quickly the Russians left the building. Bugged out, to use the American term. It shows disorganization within the VDV and whilst we all know that any army is disorganized anyway, in this case the VDV have gone to another level. The fact that the officers bugged out without destroying or removing sensitive documents, shows just how effective the route by the Ukrainians was. Whilst we have seen many examples of Russian AFVs and other war material being left in serviceable condition by their crews for the Ukrainians to capture, here we have mid level officers leaving, arguably, more damaging material for the Ukrainians. If the VDV begins disciplining AFV crews for abandoning their vehicles and not destroying them, then it must be prepared to deal with these officers more harshly. But that won't happen.

 

[seaspear]

In regard to Russia's use of foreign components in even its most modern weapon systems ,it seems that sanctions are not always successful and smuggling is ongoing
How Hard Is Russia Trying To Acquire Sensitive Western Military Technology? A U.S. Indictment Provides Clues. (rferl.org)
Certainly the RUSI released an earlier report on Russia's use of foreign components in a report attached in this article
Russian attempts to restock its military may be doomed to failure - Breaking Defense
Perhaps of note of interest was the fact that Europe allowed a loophole to permit sales of military equipment to Russia after sanctions
France, Germany and Italy sold hundreds of millions of pounds worth of arms to Russia despite ban | Daily Mail Online
War in Ukraine: France sold military equipment to Russia until 2020 - Teller Report

 

[Larry_L]

Ukraine reports that the android app they created has been vetted by google. They also state that it has contributed to dowing it's first missle. Reportedly, the missle was flying "nap of the earth" when it was spotted, and reported through the app. The first report I saw on this said that to use it you just open the app, select the type of target, point the phone at the missle, and push the red button. I am constantly amazed at how much mobile phones, and social media have changed the face of war.

Ingenious mobile app helps down first Russian missile in Ukraine

In Ukraine, a Russian missile was shot down for the first time with the assistance of the ePPO (e-air defense) mobile application available to all users who are required to register through the Diia national portal of digital government services. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[Vivendi]

Summary in English of an interview with General Michel Yakovleff (retired French general.): Michael Shurkin on Twitter: / Twitter

It's often interesting to look at the "French" perspective since it is sometimes different from the Anglo-Saxon perspective. He praises the Ukrainians and believe (as do many other observers) that they have "already won". One interesting hypothesis:

Yakovleff also rejected the idea that anyone but Ukrainians themselves planned their big operations. Certainly not Americans. Why not? Because Americans, he said, are fundamentally incapable of planning operations that do not assume air superiority. Let that sink in for a moment.

 

[Morgo]

Summary in English of an interview with General Michel Yakovleff (retired French general.): Michael Shurkin on Twitter: / Twitter

It's often interesting to look at the "French" perspective since it is sometimes different from the Anglo-Saxon perspective. He praises the Ukrainians and believe (as do many other observers) that they have "already won". One interesting hypothesis:

I dare say the several thousand Green Berets trained in unconventional warfare might disagree with his view.

 

[ngatimozart]

I dare say the several thousand Green Berets trained in unconventional warfare might disagree with his view.

So what? The retired French General is talking about strategic battlefield operations and he's correct. The last time the Americans fought without air superiority was in WW2.

 

[Morgo]

So what? The retired French General is talking about strategic battlefield operations and he's correct. The last time the Americans fought without air superiority was in WW2.

The so what is that there is a difference between not having done it since WW2, and being “fundamentally incapable” of doing it, which is what he claims.

I’ve never ordered a pizza from Dominos but I don’t think that means I’m fundamentally incapable of doing so.

 

[ngatimozart]

The so what is that there is a difference between not having done it since WW2, and being “fundamentally incapable” of doing it, which is what he claims.

I’ve never ordered a pizza from Dominos but I don’t think that means I’m fundamentally incapable of doing so.

There's a big difference between organising a bunch of snake eaters running around behind enemy lines and planning and executing a combined arms Army Corp attack across a front.

 

[Morgo]

There's a big difference between organising a bunch of snake eaters running around behind enemy lines and planning and executing a combined arms Army Corp attack across a front.

I’m not arguing there’s not.

My point is that there is a difference between not having had to do something undesirable previously (at least publically, or with your own troops) and being incapable of doing that thing.

There is, as you say, limited evidence of the US Army fighting under contested skies since the Korean War. But they also:

1) spent half a century planning a ground war in Europe that wouldn’t have guaranteed air superiority,
2) have what I am presuming (but do not know) to be one of the best military education establishments in the world; and
3) a track record of supporting various groups fighting without air superiority.

This indicates to me - and this is a subjective view - that it is highly unlikely that the US is “fundamentally incapable” of being able to fight without air superiority.

It’s like arguing that because they haven’t used nuclear weapons since WW2 that they don’t know how to fight a nuclear war.

 

[STURM]

1) spent half a century planning a ground war in Europe that wouldn’t have guaranteed air superiority

In addition to air superiority being seen as a key prerequisite; I was under the impression that the Americans were fairly confident of gaining air superiority over a certain period; in the event of a war with the Soviets. Given the imbalance in sheer numbers it would have been hard though and the Soviets did plan for Scud and Frog chemical attacks on airfields to neutralise Allied air power.

Isn't the fact that for many years GBAD units in U.S. army service were somewhat limited in types compared to other armies; driven by the fact that the Americans were confident of air superiority.

We also know that the Soviets; being practical and pragmatic; were not confident of air superiority and that's why they placed so much emphasis on GBAD. Soviet doctrine also did not see air superiority per see as a prerequisite but something to be gained over the battlefield. For the Soviets air superiority was something they saw themselves gaining but only after a certain period when Allied air power had been grinded down through attrition.

 

[Feanor]

I’m not arguing there’s not.

My point is that there is a difference between not having had to do something undesirable previously (at least publically, or with your own troops) and being incapable of doing that thing.

There is, as you say, limited evidence of the US Army fighting under contested skies since the Korean War. But they also:

1) spent half a century planning a ground war in Europe that wouldn’t have guaranteed air superiority,
2) have what I am presuming (but do not know) to be one of the best military education establishments in the world; and
3) a track record of supporting various groups fighting without air superiority.

This indicates to me - and this is a subjective view - that it is highly unlikely that the US is “fundamentally incapable” of being able to fight without air superiority.

It’s like arguing that because they haven’t used nuclear weapons since WW2 that they don’t know how to fight a nuclear war.

Minor aside, but I suspect nobody knows how to fight a nuclear war. It's one of those where I think the reality will put a fat black line through any well-laid plans.