The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The guy got sacked today I believe.
Great, how much of this type of thinking is there out their amongst the more extreme elements of Russian society and how the hell did that get broadcast, from what is a state controlled broadcaster. Usually most broadcasters have slight delay built in so that this sort of thing can be stopped.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Great, how much of this type of thinking is there out their amongst the more extreme elements of Russian society and how the hell did that get broadcast, from what is a state controlled broadcaster. Usually most broadcasters have slight delay built in so that this sort of thing can be stopped.
I mean... nutjobs exit everywhere. Russia had a major politician claiming that Russia possessed a device that could change the magnetic field of the earth and cause the US to sink to the bottom of the ocean. I do miss Zhirinovsky sometimes. On the other hand the US had a major politician advocating what amounted to alternative medicines for covid-19 so... :confused: Remember Russia also had an anti-war protest take place on the air. So you can gather they don't have the best control over what their own state sponsored media outlets are putting out there.

If you want to explore the question of systematic issues with radical political stances in Russian state ideology, the Russia and the West thread is perfect for that.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Insane first person footage of a pilot ejecting out of a SU-25 that got hit and promptly crashed.

Yep I saw it earlier today. First of all fanbois write insane on their social media posts. It's not insane and even though the pilot is a Russian pilot he won't be feeling the best after banging out. Ejections aren't very kind to bodies because they tend to compress spines and damage a few things. It didn't sound like he broke anything when he hit the ground, but he was lucky that he had a zero zero seat because if he didn't he would've been in that fireball. I suspect he ate a MANPAD.
 

wsb05

Member
I appreciate if someone has an insight into the geography of the Dniper river.
How come the Russians have not bombed the bridges on the Dniper?! Is it shallow in some areas or does it include dams in areas besides Kherson that would cause massive floods!
Are there any technical issues with bombing the bridges ?!
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Gives you an idea as to why Russia hasn't fully committed to an air war over the Ukraine. No missile alert, no time to launch countermeasures, just bang and ten seconds later you are sitting in a paddock ... if you are lucky.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Gives you an idea as to why Russia hasn't fully committed to an air war over the Ukraine. No missile alert, no time to launch countermeasures, just bang and ten seconds later you are sitting in a paddock ... if you are lucky.
The same would apply to anyone. At low level there is very like warning and without a MAWS the pilot won't know the direction the missile is coming from.

It can be argued that despite the threat from MANPADs and flak that flying low level has less risks compared to flying at medium or high altitude.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I appreciate if someone has an insight into the geography of the Dniper river.
How come the Russians have not bombed the bridges on the Dniper?! Is it shallow in some areas or does it include dams in areas besides Kherson that would cause massive floods!
Are there any technical issues with bombing the bridges ?!
It's one of the mysteries of this war. Why didn't Russia hit Ukraine harder on day 1? Why did Russia give up on their SEAD/DEAD efforts after some initial successes? Why did it take Russia 6+ months to take decisive steps to remedy the deficiency of troops on the front line? Why would Russia rather call up mobilized personnel and pull vehicles out of storage then use the conscripts and equipment they already have? Why does Russia use stand-off weapons so extensively but is so scarce on direct-attack PGMs? Why don't we have more footage of Russia's UCAVs in play (even if the Orions all died, where's the footage from the Mohajers)? Why was Russian EW so devastating in the past but so lackluster here?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
It's one of the mysteries of this war. Why didn't Russia hit Ukraine harder on day 1?
No idea how true it is but according to something I read months ago the Russians wanted to limit the amount of damage the caused because they were under the mistaken impression that the Ukrainian government would collapse and of the need to avoid alienating the Ukrainian population.

Why did Russia give up on their SEAD/DEAD efforts after some initial successes?
I suspect that risk aversion played a part. We know that Kh-31 shots were taken at long ranges and this significantly reduced the PK.

why was Russian EW so devastating in the past but so lackluster here?
The theory is that Russia didn't go all out because its EW would also affect its own troops and that although its EW is capable they aren't good a fully integrating its use with wider operations on the level needed. There is also the theory that they kept some stuff back in case it was needed against NATO; due to worries some of the most capable stuff would be captured [some indeed were] and not to reveal all their capabilities.

Prior to the invasion I assumed that Russian EW would be devastating for the Ukrainians given how effective it was in the Donbas. The Ukrainians are on record however as saying that Russian EW got increasingly effective to the extent that even UASs were disrupted. One reason why EW was not as effective was because the Ukrainians learnt a lot from the Donbas campaign years before.

Long after all this is over [hopefully it doesn't lead to a nuclear holocaust] I suspect that data will filtre out to indicate that the Russians were slightly more successful in various things than is acknowledged or known at present. Given that the Russians [or rather the Soviets] have a long institutionalised tradition of thoroughly analysing past conflicts I'll be very surprised if they don't draw the right lessons from what has gone wrong so far.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
No idea how true it is but according to something I read months ago the Russians wanted to limit the amount of damage the caused because they were under the mistaken impression that the Ukrainian government would collapse and of the need to avoid alienating the Ukrainian population.
That's been the prevailing theory, but it's a lot more then that. Russia went in Kharkov with a purely symbolic infantry force, took losses, backed off, tried again with a slightly larger force, and then gave up. What prevented Russia from throwing 10-20k troops at Kharkov? It may well have fallen, initial defenses there were small and poorly prepared. Just not so small that a few hundred troops could take it.

I suspect that risk aversion played a part. We know that Kh-31 shots were taken at long ranges and this significantly reduced the PK.
Russia has Rychag-AV and Il-22PPs in place. Russia also has radar-homing missiles. It also took Ukraine time to get their air defenses hidden and set up. Quite a few were destroyed in Russia's initial SEAD/DEAD effort. Why did that effort stop?

The theory is that Russia didn't go all out because its EW would also affect its own troops and that although its EW is capable they aren't good a fully integrating its use with wider operations on the level needed. There is also the theory that they kept some stuff back in case it was needed against NATO; due to worries some of the most capable stuff would be captured [some indeed were] and not to reveal all their capabilities.

Prior to the invasion I assumed that Russian EW would be devastating for the Ukrainians given how effective it was in the Donbas. The Ukrainians are on record however as saying that Russian EW got increasingly effective to the extent that even UASs were disrupted. One reason why EW was not as effective was because the Ukrainians learnt a lot from the Donbas campaign years before.

Long after all this is over [hopefully it doesn't lead to a nuclear holocaust] I suspect that data will filtre out to indicate that the Russians were slightly more successful in various things than is acknowledged or known at present. Given that the Russians [or rather the Soviets] have a long institutionalised tradition of thoroughly analysing past conflicts I'll be very surprised if they don't draw the right lessons from what has gone wrong so far.
This makes some sense but we don't see Il-22PP sorties. We don't even see a whole lot of activity from Russia's Tu-214Rs.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article suggests that there technology failures in the Russian armies communications that have led them from the start to be vulnerable to hacking by the Ukrainian ,s even to the extent that the positions of staff officers were determined and acted apon ,that there are not communications between ground troops and airforce aircraft overhead ,leading many of the troops to use their mobile phones
Communication Breakdown: How Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine Bogged Down (rferl.org)
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
There was a shortage of military grade stuff and as is widely known some units were issued with Chinese hand held radios which lacked encryption. Another issue is that some soldiers nicked handphones off civilians and didn't change the SIM cards; this apparently enabled the Ukrainians to listen in and geolocate positions.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Russia also has radar-homing missiles.
I have no idea if they employed anything other than Kh-31Ps but these were not very effective because the Russians were undertaking long range shots in order to avoid air defences. This also explains why cruise and ballistic missiles were employed against the Ukrainian GBAD.

I would really be interested to know how many AD systems and radars were actually destroyed and damaged but it's still early days. Using similar tactics the Serbs and Iraqis employed; the Ukrainians have been quite successful preserving their AD systems. There was a very detailed article on Russian SEAD/DEAD capabilities called "Castles In the Sky"" but it's no longer online. I believe I have a copy in my hard drive and might post excerpts here.

I'm also interested to know what systems the Ukrainians used to intercept Russian cruise and ballistic missiles.
 
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Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I mean... nutjobs exit everywhere. Russia had a major politician claiming that Russia possessed a device that could change the magnetic field of the earth and cause the US to sink to the bottom of the ocean. I do miss Zhirinovsky sometimes. On the other hand the US had a major politician advocating what amounted to alternative medicines for covid-19 so... :confused: Remember Russia also had an anti-war protest take place on the air. So you can gather they don't have the best control over what their own state sponsored media outlets are putting out there.

If you want to explore the question of systematic issues with radical political stances in Russian state ideology, the Russia and the West thread is perfect for that.
Yes you are right, Here is an other person apparently on RT that is saying that Russia cannot win and there appears to be no attempt to stop him. This was from MSN News.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes you are right, Here is an other person apparently on RT that is saying that Russia cannot win and there appears to be no attempt to stop him. This was from MSN News.
Russia isn't a totalitarian state. It's authoritarian, but there are protests and opposition political activity. As the war effort goes poorly, especially in ways that are publicly visible (loss of territory) this will impact the domestic situation.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Have the same armchair generals in the media ever commented on Russian casualties , the often poor training or equipping of soldiers in this war ?
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
A news article which claims that production managers face arrest for not meeting targets for production of tanks and other heavy weapons ,this came from Dimitry Medvedev a former president during an inspection of a tank building plant
Russia's Medvedev Threatens Defense Industry Arrests During Tank Plant Visit (msn.com) it would be interesting if he actually went to review the soldiers in Ukraine to assess their equipment what he would say
'Just take a look': Video reveals dire reality for Russian soldiers | CNN
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
it would be interesting if he actually went to review the soldiers in Ukraine to assess their equipment what he would say
'Just take a look': Video reveals dire reality for Russian soldiers | CNN
No doubt the situation is bad but are we seeing the whole picture? What about Russian units which are not badly equipped? What about newly mobilised troops who don't have rusty AK-74s and who don't have to buy their own camo?

We also have to keep in mind that things aren't all that rosy for the other side too. We see footage and pics of Ukrainian troops with body armour; personal comms and other things but as Feanor points out there are also other units which are not as well kitted out.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
A Kiwi ex soldier who is fighting in Ukraine has told of the conditions that they have found Russian conscripts in. Basically they're either dead or POWs and the POW option appears to be a better option than serving in the front line. At least as POWs they are regularly fed and kept warm, which is far better than the way their own army is treating them. Winter is coming and will the VDV have proper winter clothing for its soldiers? I absolutely think not and the more this goes on the more I am reminded of the similarities between the current Russian political leadership, the Russian military, and the Nazi German political leadership and Wehrmacht about this time in 1941, and again at the onset of the Battle of Stalingrad.


The NZ Herald also ran a story about game designers and engineers used by the Russian military to help launch the missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure. It's interesting and I have also linked the original Bellingcat article because it hasn't been "tainted" by various journos and editors.


 
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