If I might suggest we put a pin in the discussion of who is or isn't lying with regards to news and casualties. We all assume casualties for both Russia and Ukraine are higher then their respective governments state however how much higher is entirely guess work by us with out facts (though some numbers have been gleened from the Russian side via funerals, death payouts etc). All we are doing is going around in circles debating the same points over and over, could almost be like a family dinner with my sister's but much calmer here . Any discussion should be based around fact, so far it is largely around personal opinion and going nowhere, people have their views, they won't change without new info, let's move on from this point for now
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
With regard to estimating deaths by funerals this article suggests that Russia has not been so keen on co-operation for the retrieval of dead this can effect compensation payout to families of such
‘Private Pivovarov is on Assignment’: How Russia Hides its Military Casualties - The Moscow Times
‘Private Pivovarov is on Assignment’: How Russia Hides its Military Casualties - The Moscow Times
President Zelensky has stated that Ukraine has received the NASAMS air defense systems. The source is an interview so it maybe some time before he said the relevant part. You can just search the transcript for the words NASAMS though.
While US has said that they will send NASAMS, this confirms that they have been received.
I believe Ukraine will use the NASAMS to defend against missile strikes in the rear areas. Ukrainian forces are often able to down fixed wing aircrafts and helicopters with their existing armaments, but reports of strikes by long range missiles at the rear areas suggests a defense gap that should be filled.
While US has said that they will send NASAMS, this confirms that they have been received.
I believe Ukraine will use the NASAMS to defend against missile strikes in the rear areas. Ukrainian forces are often able to down fixed wing aircrafts and helicopters with their existing armaments, but reports of strikes by long range missiles at the rear areas suggests a defense gap that should be filled.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #5,004
Update.
Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy-Rog-Odessa.
76th VDV delivering strikes near Kherson. Exact location and context unclear.
t.me
Russian quadcopter strikes, Kherson.
t.me
A failed Ukrainian attack at Pravdino.
vk.com
Reportedly the center of Kherson got hit, near the city administration.
t.me
t.me
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
t.me
Russian strikes, Krivoy Rog.
vk.com
Russian strikes on Nikolaev.
t.me
Russian VDV firing at something, Kherson region. Note the soldier at the end is wearing a strange uniform and is firing a suppressed weapon.
t.me
From the recent footage of the crossing at Ingulets, we have a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1 and Kipri MRAP.
vk.com
Gunfire in the center of Kherson, presumably Ukrainian resistance.
t.me
t.me
vk.com
Ukrainian M-109s near Nikolaev.
vk.com
Ukrainian mock NASAMS, near Nikolaev.
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Russian Kuban' Cossack irregulars delivering UAV-directed mortar strikes, Zaporozhye region.
t.me
Russian strikes near Sinel'kovo, Dnepropetrovsk region.
vk.com
A deputy of the mayor of Berdyansk and his wife were killed.
t.me
An explosion took place in Melitopol'. Reportedly it was a controlled demolition.
vk.com
The North.
Russian strikes on Chernigov area.
vk.com
Ukrainian ASU-85 at a checkpoint in Poltava region. What the value of it is there is unclear.
vk.com
Oskol front.
Ukrainian BMPs pulling back rapidly. One falls into a dug in fighting position.
vk.com
Russian and LNR forces continue to hold Liman as of Sep 17th.
t.me
Ukrainian forces riding Bushmasters and T-80BVs. The paint color and how clear the tank looks makes me wonder if it's a captured Russian T-80BV.
vk.com
Ukrainian forces captured an intact T-90M in the recent offensive.
.jpg)
gurkhan.blogspot.com
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Ukrainian forces in Belogorovka.
vk.com
Ukrainian security forces detaining someone who apparently worked at a sports arena under Russian occupation.
vk.com
Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy-Rog-Odessa.
76th VDV delivering strikes near Kherson. Exact location and context unclear.
ANNA NEWS
Уничтожение танков противника на Херсонском направлении 76-я дивизия ВДВ поражает бронетехнику противника, огонь артиллерии наводят беспилотники "Орлан" Кажется, сегодня Войска Дяди Васи сорвали все попытки противника продвинуться в сторону Херсона Видео: https://vk.com/komdiv76 @anna_news
t.me
Russian quadcopter strikes, Kherson.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Как двумя коптерами Mavic загнать под землю и разбомбить подразделение врага: работает 247-й казачий полк ВДВ на Херсонщине Наши гвардейцы-десантники одним БпЛА отвлекли внимание врага, боевики ВСУ пытались сбить 1 коптер, в это время 2-й дрон полетел и отбомбился по трубе, где спрятались...
t.me
A failed Ukrainian attack at Pravdino.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Reportedly the center of Kherson got hit, near the city administration.
Colonelcassad
ВСУ обстреляли центр Херсона, несколько ракет упали в центре города рядом с зданием администрации.
t.me
Colonelcassad
Центр Херсона после ракетного обстрела. Повреждено здание администрации. Есть убитые и раненые среди гражданских.
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
GREY ZONE
ВСУ нанесли удар по херсонской военно-гражданской администрации, где находился её глава Кирилл Стремоусов
t.me
Russian strikes, Krivoy Rog.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian strikes on Nikolaev.
Colonelcassad
Новые прилеты в Николаеве. Ранее гауляйтер Ким заявлял, что ничего хорошо в Николаеве не ожидается и жителям не занятым в вопросах войны надо бежать из города.
t.me
Russian VDV firing at something, Kherson region. Note the soldier at the end is wearing a strange uniform and is firing a suppressed weapon.
Одесское Общественное Телевидение Z
Российские десантники работают по позициям ВСУ в Херсонской области.
t.me
From the recent footage of the crossing at Ingulets, we have a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1 and Kipri MRAP.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Gunfire in the center of Kherson, presumably Ukrainian resistance.
Осташко! Важное
В районе Херсонского ж/д вокзала возле кафе «Дон Марко» идёт активная стрельба. Силовыми структурами перекрыт проспект Ушакова. По предварительным данным, посетители кафе слушали неправильную музыку. На требование военных выключить – граждане стали грубо спорить. Сообщается, что четверо уже...
t.me
ВЕСТИ КРЫМ
⚡️⚡️⚡️Эксклюзивные кадры Вести Крым — в районе ЖД вокзала в Херсоне проходит контртеррористическая операция На месте работает военный корреспондент Вести Крым Михаил Андроник. @vesticrimea
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian M-109s near Nikolaev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian mock NASAMS, near Nikolaev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Russian Kuban' Cossack irregulars delivering UAV-directed mortar strikes, Zaporozhye region.
Александр Власов
Кубанские казаки из Первого добровольческого отряда имени атамана Захария Чепеги продолжают с честью и доблестью выполнять боевые задачи на запорожском направлении. Ежедневно наши казаки не только сдерживают натиск и защищают свои позиции от атак украинских неонацистов, но и проводят...
t.me
Russian strikes near Sinel'kovo, Dnepropetrovsk region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A deputy of the mayor of Berdyansk and his wife were killed.
Colonelcassad
Заместитель мэра Бердянска по ЖКХ и его жена возглавлявшая территориальный избирком были убиты сегодня утром у своего гаража. В очередной раз можно отметить, что на освобожденных территориях необходимо ужесточение режима КТО (с опциональным созданием структуры идентичной СМЕРШ с самыми широкими...
t.me
An explosion took place in Melitopol'. Reportedly it was a controlled demolition.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The North.
Russian strikes on Chernigov area.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian ASU-85 at a checkpoint in Poltava region. What the value of it is there is unclear.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Oskol front.
Ukrainian BMPs pulling back rapidly. One falls into a dug in fighting position.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian and LNR forces continue to hold Liman as of Sep 17th.
Kotsnews
Глава администрации города Красный Лиман Александр Петрикин о ситуации в городе на 17 сентября. @sashakots
t.me
Ukrainian forces riding Bushmasters and T-80BVs. The paint color and how clear the tank looks makes me wonder if it's a captured Russian T-80BV.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian forces captured an intact T-90M in the recent offensive.
Информация о захвате ВСУ практически целого Т-90М подтвердилась! (много фото)
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Новейший российский танк Т-90М "Прорыв" захвачен ВСУ (видео)
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Ukrainian forces in Belogorovka.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian security forces detaining someone who apparently worked at a sports arena under Russian occupation.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #5,005
LDNR Front.
Apparently a failed Ukrainian attack at Spornoe.
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
Russian strikes, Spornoe.
vk.com
Russian strikes near Slayvyansk.
t.me
Apparently the powerplant in Slavyansk was one of the targets.
t.me
Russian MLRS strikes near Seversk.
t.me
Kaskad btln quadcopter drops a munition on a Ukrainian outhouse.
vk.com
t.me
Shelling of Donetsk continues.
t.me
t.me
t.me
t.me
Allegedly a Ukrainian assault team near Peski, taken out. Warning footage of corpses.
An explosion took place in Lugansk, near the prosecutor's office.
t.me
vk.com
BTR-80 based command vehicle and Tigr armored car in Lugansk, covered in K-1 tiles.
vk.com
LNR recon soldier with a LAW RPG.
vk.com
Russia.
Allegedly Russian strikes on Ukrainian military vehicles near the border, Belgorod region.
vk.com
Valuyki, Belgorod region, Russia, reportedly got hit pretty hard.
t.me
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
Russian air defenses firing over Belgorod.
vk.com
Russian Border Guard in Crimea apparently downed a Ukrainian UAV.
t.me
Chinese Y-20 has shown up in Russia. It's unclear why, it could be delivering weapons.
Misc.
Russian strike on apparent Ukrainian position, somewhere in the south.
vk.com
Russian strikes against apparently L118s? Somewhere in the south.
t.me
Russia Grad fires, location and context unclear.
Russian D-30 fires, location and context unclear.
vk.com
Ukrainian T-64BV withdraws after Russian troops attempt to drop a grenade down the hatch.
vk.com
Two T-64BVs, apparently Ukrainian. One destroyed, the other knocked out and captured. Location and context unclear allegedly 30th Bde.
t.me
Ukrainian 2S3 taken out by Iranian-supplied loitering munition. This might be Kharkov area. Note the Shahed-136/Geran'-2 doesn't have a camera, meaning it needs another unit to do the targeting.
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
vk.com
Ukrainian M-113 and SUV taken out, location and context unclear.
vk.com
Russian forces captured a YPR-765. This was reportedly a failed attack by Ukrainian forces.
vk.com
t.me
Russian T-80BVM that apaprently survived an RPG or ATGM hit.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Russian Mi-8 ops, Ukraine.
vk.com
Russian Su-25 carrying 240mm S-24 rockets.
vk.com
A Ukrainian mini-UAV allegedly intercepted by Russian Border Guard, though the "how" is unclear.
t.me
Reportedly Russian prisoners who took military service in the war as a chance to get out. In the video they're encouraging other inmates to accept the offer.
Ukrainian forces have adapted Soviet PTABs for UAV use.
vk.com
.jpg)
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Zuzana-2 in Ukrainian hands, location and context unclear.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Ukrainian forces have converted a captured TOS-1 into an armored evacuator.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
NATO/EU.
Lithuania has promised Ukraine M113s and M577s. They're also apparently doing repairs on Ukrainian PzH-2000.
topwar.ru
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Apparently the M113s have arrived already.
vk.com
Ukrainian WIAs arriving in Germany.
vk.com
40 Greek BMP-1s are going to Ukraine.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Ukraine will reportedly the launch customers for 18 RCH-155s. Of course Ukraine can't afford this, and if they had the cash, they would probably spend it differently. This is likely an attempt to test the weapon system in a high-intensity conflict.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
bmpd.livejournal.com
Reportedly Spain delivered munitions to Ukraine.
riafan.ru
Apparently a failed Ukrainian attack at Spornoe.
Бой в районе Спорного
Большое видео боя в районе Спорного, где группа ВСУшников на МТЛБ штурмует опорник 4-й бригады армии ЛНР. Спойлер - выживут далеко не все участники видео.
Russian strikes, Spornoe.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian strikes near Slayvyansk.
РаZвед_ДоZор
Бои на Славянском направлении. Гвардейцы ZVO работают по укрепрайонам ВСУ в лесополосе. 1. Уничтожение опорного пункта и автомобиля ВСУ. 2. Точное поражение укрытой техники в лесу. 3. Уничтожение блиндажа. Выживший украинский военный спешит спрятаться за технику. @razved_dozor
t.me
Apparently the powerplant in Slavyansk was one of the targets.
Colonelcassad
Гауляйтер Славянска сообщает о сильных повреждениях Славянской ТЭС после недавних обстрелов.
t.me
Russian MLRS strikes near Seversk.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️ Наступление на Северск: РСЗО "️тважных" уничтожают оборону врага на подступах к городу Враг возвёл здесь мощные укрепления и наши уничтожают их огнем артиллерии и авиации, чтобы при наступлении сберечь войска. #эксклюзив с фронта t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
Kaskad btln quadcopter drops a munition on a Ukrainian outhouse.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
МВД ДНР
Военнослужащие ОБТФ ДНР «Каскад» помешали националисту размышлять о будущих «перемогах». Перед забегом поклонник Бандеры едва успел надеть портки.
t.me
Shelling of Donetsk continues.
Readovka
В здании администрации Ворошиловского района Донецка полностью выбиты стекла — рядом догорает автомобиль Первыми кадрами с места жесткого артналета на центр Донецка делится военкор Readovka Алиса Зинченко. О пострадавших пока ничего неизвестно, улицы пустые — люди прячутся в укрытиях. Здание...
t.me
Colonelcassad
Еще кадры дневного обстрела центра Донецка. Сообщается о нескольких погибших и повреждениях нескольких зданий. Обстрел велся из французских САУ "Цезарь"
t.me
Типичный Донецк
18+ В результате обстрела на ул. Вахрушева в Куйбышевском районе Донецка погиб мужчина Подписаться | Предложить новость
t.me
Аналитическая служба Донбасса
Центр Донецка после удара ВСУ Эксклюзивный репортаж Аналитической службы Донбасса
t.me
Allegedly a Ukrainian assault team near Peski, taken out. Warning footage of corpses.
An explosion took place in Lugansk, near the prosecutor's office.
Colonelcassad
В Луганске произошел взрыв у здания Генеральной Прокуратуры Луганской Народной Республики.
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
BTR-80 based command vehicle and Tigr armored car in Lugansk, covered in K-1 tiles.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
LNR recon soldier with a LAW RPG.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia.
Allegedly Russian strikes on Ukrainian military vehicles near the border, Belgorod region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Valuyki, Belgorod region, Russia, reportedly got hit pretty hard.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Первые кадры из Валуек, по которым бьёт враг Сообщают об ударе по подстанции и исчезновении электричества t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian air defenses firing over Belgorod.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian Border Guard in Crimea apparently downed a Ukrainian UAV.
Крым 24 |Z| Все новости Крыма
❗️Военнослужащие из Крыма во время патрулирования прифронтовой полосы на освобожденных территориях сбили украинский дрон Аппарат нейтрализовали с помощью переносного комплекса радиоэлектронной борьбы. За работой военных наблюдал корреспондент «Крым 24». Крым 24 | @tvcrimea24
t.me
Chinese Y-20 has shown up in Russia. It's unclear why, it could be delivering weapons.
Misc.
Russian strike on apparent Ukrainian position, somewhere in the south.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian strikes against apparently L118s? Somewhere in the south.
Повёрнутые на войне
Сегодня на юге вот такие накрыли, на три топора не похожи, 105мм L118 до фронта доехали?
t.me
Russia Grad fires, location and context unclear.
Russian D-30 fires, location and context unclear.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian T-64BV withdraws after Russian troops attempt to drop a grenade down the hatch.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Two T-64BVs, apparently Ukrainian. One destroyed, the other knocked out and captured. Location and context unclear allegedly 30th Bde.
Уголок Ситха
Минус два украинских танка Т-64БВ 30 омбр. Один уничтожен, осталась только башня, второй с виду целый, скорее всего пойдёт в трофеи.
t.me
Ukrainian 2S3 taken out by Iranian-supplied loitering munition. This might be Kharkov area. Note the Shahed-136/Geran'-2 doesn't have a camera, meaning it needs another unit to do the targeting.
Цветет "Герань"
Первый задокументированный успех применения иранского дрона Shahed-136, он же Герань-2 в локализованной российской версии. Прямым попаданием БПЛА-камикадзе уничтожена 152-мм САУ Акация, которую просто разорвало детонацией боекомплекта. С почином. Командир артиллерии…
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian M-113 and SUV taken out, location and context unclear.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian forces captured a YPR-765. This was reportedly a failed attack by Ukrainian forces.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Уголок Ситха
Подразделения ЮВО, отражая атаку ВСУ, захватили американский бронетранспортёр М113. Его бросили украинские военнослужащие, спасаясь бегством. Видео боя нашего БТР-82А с американским М113 опубликовано Минобороны РФ. @rt_russian
t.me
Russian T-80BVM that apaprently survived an RPG or ATGM hit.
Т-80БВМ в результате попадания кумулятивным боеприпасом под башню.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Russian Mi-8 ops, Ukraine.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian Su-25 carrying 240mm S-24 rockets.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A Ukrainian mini-UAV allegedly intercepted by Russian Border Guard, though the "how" is unclear.
Colonelcassad
Провокация не удалась На видео видим, как один из украинских террористов заряжает квадракоптер неизвестным боеприпасом, чтобы запустить дрон в строну России. Но украинские вояки находятся под постоянным наблюдением наших ребят, одно мгновение – и "птичка" уже перехвачена и обезврежена...
t.me
Reportedly Russian prisoners who took military service in the war as a chance to get out. In the video they're encouraging other inmates to accept the offer.
Ukrainian forces have adapted Soviet PTABs for UAV use.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Украинцы адаптировали бомбы ПТАБ-2,5М для сброса с коммерческих дронов.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Zuzana-2 in Ukrainian hands, location and context unclear.
Первое видео со словацкой 155-мм Zuzana 2 в использовании ВСУ.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Ukrainian forces have converted a captured TOS-1 into an armored evacuator.
ТОС-1А "Солнцепек" в роли тягача ВСУ
gurkhan.blogspot.com
NATO/EU.
Lithuania has promised Ukraine M113s and M577s. They're also apparently doing repairs on Ukrainian PzH-2000.
Глава МИД Литвы Габриэлюс Ландсбергис пообещал поставить Киеву две партии бронетранспортёров
Литва, являющаяся одним из самых активных спонсоров режима Зеленского, несмотря на свои и так небольшие возможности, продолжит поддерживать Киев в его борьбе с "российской агрессией". В ближайшее время Киев получит две партии бронетранспортеров, которые обещает поставить Вильнюс. На
Литва передала Украине бронетранспортеры М113 и ремонтирует PzG2000
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Apparently the M113s have arrived already.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian WIAs arriving in Germany.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
40 Greek BMP-1s are going to Ukraine.
Греция передаст Украине 40 боевых машин пехоты
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Ukraine will reportedly the launch customers for 18 RCH-155s. Of course Ukraine can't afford this, and if they had the cash, they would probably spend it differently. This is likely an attempt to test the weapon system in a high-intensity conflict.
Украине будут поставлены 18 самоходных гаубиц RCH-155
gurkhan.blogspot.com
Украине будут поставлены 18 самоходных гаубиц RCH-155
Немецкое издание Welt am Sonntag сообщило, что правительство Германии после долгих колебаний выдало германской компании Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) лицензию на продажу Украине 18 самоходных гаубиц RCH-155 калибра 155-мм/52 нового производства, а также одобрило германское…
bmpd.livejournal.com
Reportedly Spain delivered munitions to Ukraine.
Испания поставила Киеву боеприпасы для артиллерии стандарта НАТО
Мадрид, 17 сентября. Правительство Испании отправило Киеву пять транспортных самолетов с боеприпасами для крупнокалиберных артиллерийских систем. Об этом сообщает Генеральный штаб ВСУ.
riafan.ru
The Russians have lost a significant amount of modern (for them) material and they aren't able to replace it in both quantities and time required. Also their body armour was rubbish and in this Chris Cappy video on whether the new US Army XM-5 rifle (6.8mm x 51) would be of use to the Ukrainian infantry, there is video of Ukrainian soldiers testing its effectiveness. He has commentary from actual soldiers who have fought or are fighting the Russians in Ukraine so it gives an idea of some of the type of fighting that the average grunt is undertaking over there.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Don't know if it was posted here before. Ukraine requests Israeli intel on Iranian drones.
Israel sends delegations from its security establishment to international forums where they explain such things, so some of the intel already exists. What we don't know is how this might connect to the anti-drone systems Israel sent to Ukraine recently. Whether it's to do with how to operate them, or how to design similar systems for wider distribution.
www.axios.com
Israel sends delegations from its security establishment to international forums where they explain such things, so some of the intel already exists. What we don't know is how this might connect to the anti-drone systems Israel sent to Ukraine recently. Whether it's to do with how to operate them, or how to design similar systems for wider distribution.
Ukraine asks Israel to share intel on Iranian support to Russian military
The U.S. and Ukraine have accused Iran of sending hundreds of attack drones to Russia — an allegation Tehran denied.
www.axios.com
I've given you an example & asked you to consider it. You've not responded to that.
I think he is not answering to that point because a single example would not be relevant.
He is not keen on a position that one is more truthful than the other. In his view, they are all guilty of the same thing, regardless of the degree or the purpose, noble or otherwise.
To move forward, rather than engage in fruitless debate, look at the incidents/tactical picture on a case-by-case basis, when information is available. There are some situations where it is clearer from the Russian sources, and there are some situations were Western sources provide more verifiable content.
I avoid this polemics of truth and lies but focus on what is verifiable, which helps to negate (but not remove) bias.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Thanks @koxinga as you have point out my point. I don't have time before to answer.
Thus create different perspective on each targeted audiences.
Because your example is debatable, and we don't have anything in the ground that independently can verify at this point around. This's why I said both side are master liars, because whether it is through crude lies or more subtle lies, they manage to give enough miss direction on what's really happening in the ground.
Thus create different perspective on each targeted audiences.
Thank you to point out the point that I try to shown several times. Not all people agree on my point, but I also know enough people (especially outside collective west) share agreeable view with this.
Post 2 of 2: Some inchoate reflections
5. Ex Pitch Black 2022, RIMPAC 2022, Ex Kakadu 2022, and Ex Garuda Shield 2022 — are all not yet hostile to China or obviously directed at China. The fact that Japan is a factor with support from Germany/France in many of these exercises shows the degree of shift. What we are afraid of is not the PLA(N)’s most likely course of action (ECA A). Rather, it is the PLA(N)’s most dangerous course of action (ECA B), that keeps war planners up at night.
6. PLA(N) task groups led by Type 055 destroyers / cruisers are too powerful to be attacked conventionally by single fighters or multi-ASM attacks; instead it takes specialist SEAD & EW packages for a fighter strike group to penetrate air defences — as Ex Kakadu 2022 demonstrates. These sorts of complex coalition exercises presents for the PLA(N), in the South China Sea, ECA B.
5. Ex Pitch Black 2022, RIMPAC 2022, Ex Kakadu 2022, and Ex Garuda Shield 2022 — are all not yet hostile to China or obviously directed at China. The fact that Japan is a factor with support from Germany/France in many of these exercises shows the degree of shift. What we are afraid of is not the PLA(N)’s most likely course of action (ECA A). Rather, it is the PLA(N)’s most dangerous course of action (ECA B), that keeps war planners up at night.
6. PLA(N) task groups led by Type 055 destroyers / cruisers are too powerful to be attacked conventionally by single fighters or multi-ASM attacks; instead it takes specialist SEAD & EW packages for a fighter strike group to penetrate air defences — as Ex Kakadu 2022 demonstrates. These sorts of complex coalition exercises presents for the PLA(N), in the South China Sea, ECA B.
7. This is my last post on anything related to China in this thread on latest developments impacting the Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022. Let me digress a bit more from the main topic of the thread by sharing 2 final thoughts:
One, China does not have the degree of leverage on Putin that Andrei Illarionov assumes, yet.
Two, it is nonsense on stilts with regard to any referendum— as it’s a CCP own goal for Taiwan (if DPP decide to conduct a referendum for independence, at some point).
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Well, it does demonstrate the West (both Russian and Western) has somewhat of a naive and simplistic view on the Russian-China dynamics and of authoritarian systems like China. China is a non-factor (at the battlefield level) in this war.
Even at geopolitical level, China offering words of support is the "best deal" for them because it costs relatively nothing from China's perspective but gains some measure of influence on Russia. I.e it is a mutually benefiting relationship with China benefiting more, just like every deal China signs.
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- #5,013
China may be a non-factor in the manner being discussed above, but just as we're all cheerfully writing off China, a Y-20 landed in Moscow. Russia turned to Iran for UAV supplies. Is there any reason to think Russia wouldn't purchase Chinese? Is there any reason to think China won't sell them? People are busy looking at the big picture and imagining fantastical scenarios of Russo-Chinese collusion but in this miss the very real ties between Russia and China in terms of resource sales and military-technical cooperation. This isn't to say we can confidently state it's happening. But I think cargoplane traffic from China to Russia should be watched and will give us indications of where this is going. The battlefield might be exactly where China will be a factor in the form of supplying systems that Russia is deficient in.
other than political blowback on the world stage, I see no reason why they wouldn’t. Cheap crude in exchange Big plus for the PLA is live, real world weapons testing which can be invaluable
Russia might need emergency weapon supplies from somewhere, given their current situation. This is even nothing high-tech, neither electronics nor special materials unless you consider rust a special material.
Russia's Mobilized Troops Being Given Old, Rusty Guns: Ukrainian Official
Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, shared footage online appearing to show soldiers handing out old weapons.
www.newsweek.com
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- #5,016
Yeah, I'm once again ~1 week behind. The mobilization is going highly inconsistently. Some areas the recruits are well fed, well uniformed, and given new weapons. Some areas are lacking in all departments. Additionally it appears the Russian government failed to put in the proper process for medical reviews and the military commissariats, an ossified bureaucracy, are drafting whoever and however. In some cases people are getting draft notices at 1600 hours ordering them to report at 1700 hours the same day, making it impossible to figure out job situations, family situations, etc.Russia might need emergency weapon supplies from somewhere, given their current situation. This is even nothing high-tech, neither electronics nor special materials unless you consider rust a special material.
Russia's Mobilized Troops Being Given Old, Rusty Guns: Ukrainian Official
Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, shared footage online appearing to show soldiers handing out old weapons.
It's a clusterf*ck. We're also seeing BMP-2s, T-62Ms, and T-80BVs being pulled out of storage in additional quantities. It will be interesting to see if this involves additional defense industry orders, since Putin met with defense industry leadership very recently.
I wonder how big a role corruption had to play in this. Will we see a wave of firings and tribunals of military commissariats officials?
Does anyone know if the Ukraine has other
T-72 variants apart from the AV/B1/B3/ AMT/AMY/UA1/M1and whether there are photos of all these variants in combat? Do the Ukrainians operate any other T-80 variant apart from the UD?
As far as I can tell the Russians have deployed the T-72B/BI/BA/B3/B4 and the
T-80 variants they have are the U/BV and BVM.
For the unaccustomed keeping track of all these variants [some with minor differences] can be somewhat confusing.
T-72 variants apart from the AV/B1/B3/ AMT/AMY/UA1/M1and whether there are photos of all these variants in combat? Do the Ukrainians operate any other T-80 variant apart from the UD?
As far as I can tell the Russians have deployed the T-72B/BI/BA/B3/B4 and the
T-80 variants they have are the U/BV and BVM.
For the unaccustomed keeping track of all these variants [some with minor differences] can be somewhat confusing.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I am sure additional arms via Chinese Y-20s is in the cards but like the West, China will likely be very selective in what they offer unless $hit happens in which case both sides will offer more exotic kit. The other big unknown is Putin’s future and for that matter Xi’s. At this point I think Xi’s future is looking better than Putin’s…just IMHO.
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Russia is pounding Odessa constantly with Shahed-136 strikes. It's unclear why, but they're hitting it over and over again. Targets seem to have to do with Ukraine's military presence there. But this is really unclear. Maybe the logistics and HQ for Ukraine's Kherson offensive are in Odessa rather then Nikolaev? Maybe Ukrainian forces there are significant worse concealed? Very unclear.